assisting integrated catchment management for water · pdf filecase study: development of...
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www.sci.monash.edu
Dr Terry Chan, Dr Paul McShane
Monash Sustainability Institute Seminar SeriesMonash Clayton, Building 74, November 4, 2010
Assisting integrated catchment
management for water resources:Risk assessment, Bayesian network models and case studies from the Asia-Pacific
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Basic landscape
unit
Connected by
water
Increasing need
for water
management
Why catchments?
Case Study: Development of Integrated Catchment Management in the
Kongulai Catchment, Solomon Islands
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KONGULAI
CATCHMENT
Honiara
Kongulai
Catchment
Kongulai Catchment
Honiara
Kongulai
Catchment
Kongulai Catchment
Honiara
Kongulai
Catchment
Kongulai Catchment
Honiara
Kongulai
Catchment
Kongulai Catchment
Honiara
Kongulai
Catchment
Kongulai Catchment
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When to use a Risk-based
Approach?
High values
High risks
Multiple threats/hazards (altered
flow, poor sanitation, sedimentation,
etc.)
Multiple, diverse, conflicting uses
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Aims of Risk Assessment Approach
Identify where to focus time and effort- Quantitative assessment (numerical model)
- Prioritize threats
- Identify best management actions
Assist managers in handling variability, complexity and uncertainty
To integrate knowledge and understanding of water resources in a catchment
Problem Formulation
Risk Management
Monitoring
Review
Iterative P
rocess
(Ad
ap
tive Ma
na
gem
ent)Risk Characterization
Iterative P
rocess
(Mo
del D
evelop
men
t)
Consequences (Effects)
Likelihood(Exposure)
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Policy
Problem Formulation
Risk Management
Monitoring
Review
Iterative P
rocess
(Ad
ap
tive Ma
na
gem
ent)Risk Characterization
Iterative P
rocess
(Mo
del D
evelop
men
t)
Consequences (Effects)
Likelihood(Exposure)
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Policy
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Stakeholders and Risk Assessment
By engaging a range of stakeholders we hope to increase the:
–Relevance (not just an academic / scientific / technically driven exercise)
– Legitimacy
–Acceptability of the final product
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Participatory processes
Identified stakeholder groups and representatives
Followed principles of public participation, including customised design for circumstances and to meet local expectations
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Participatory processes
Solicited local advice and used a local liaison (adviser-facilitator-translator)
Included both genders and a range of ages
Held events in comfortable, familiar surroundings
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Participatory Outcomes
Decision on key value: water for human use
Key threats/hazards: pollution, geological change, poor sanitation, sediment, leakage, logging, social disputes, etc…
Other factors affecting water in the Kongulai catchment
How the factors relate
Problem Formulation
Risk Management
Monitoring
Review
Iterative P
rocess
(Ad
ap
tive Ma
na
gem
ent)Risk Characterization
Iterative P
rocess
(Mo
del D
evelop
men
t)
Consequences (Effects)
Likelihood(Exposure)
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Policy
Problem Formulation
Risk Management
Monitoring
Review
Iterative P
rocess
(Ad
ap
tive Ma
na
gem
ent)Risk Characterization
Iterative P
rocess
(Mo
del D
evelop
men
t)
Consequences (Effects)
Likelihood(Exposure)
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Policy
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What is a Bayesian Network?
Made up of:
1. A diagram, the structure of the model showing how different variables are connected
2. The relationships between the variables, (e.g. probability table or difference equations)
Note: Whatever data is available can be used to improve the initial relationships/probabilities
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Example: Model Structure
Crop Yield
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Example: Model Structure
Fertilizer
application
Crop Yield
Water
application
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Example: Model Structure
Water
timing
Fertilizer
application
Crop Yield
Water
application
Water
amount
Soil type
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Example: Defining variables
• How could each variables be measured?
– “Crop yield” in tonnes/hectare
– “Water amount” = “irrigation volume” in kL/hectare/day
• How can variable “states” be defined?
– “Crop yield” could be “good” = more than 10 tonnes/hectare and “poor” = less than 10 tonnes/hectare.
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Example
Crop Yield
GoodPoor
50.050.0
Water Application
EffectiveIneffective
50.050.0
Fertilizer Application
EffectiveIneffective
50.050.0
Soil Type
SandClay
50.050.0
Irrigation Application
HighLow
50.050.0
Irrigation Scheduling
RightTimeWrongTime
50.050.0
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Networks use Bayes’ theorem:
P(C A) = P(A C) P(C)
P(A)
Where P(C) is the probability of parameter C. After collection of data A giving us P(A) and P(A|C), we can calculate P(C|A), the probability of C given A
A
C
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Example
Irrigation Application
High
Low
60.0
40.0
Irrigation Scheduling
Right Time
Wrong Time
75.0
25.0
Crop Yield
Good
Poor
63.5
36.5
Crop Water Application
Effective
Ineffective
68.9
31.0
Fertilizer Application
Effective
Ineffective
60.0
40.0
Soil Type
Sand
Clay
70.0
30.0
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Example
Crop Yield
GoodPoor
85.015.0
Water Application
EffectiveIneffective
90.010.0
Fertilizer Application
EffectiveIneffective
100 0
Soil Type
SandClay
100 0
Irrigation Application
HighLow
100 0
Irrigation Scheduling
RightTimeWrongTime
100 0
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Why use a Bayesian network?
Based on conceptual cause-effect links
Relatively simple to build and simplifies complexity
Graphically based so can be used/understood by different people (good for communication)
Quantitative, allows prioritization
Can use sparse data and can be combined with expert opinion where there is no data
Explicitly includes uncertainty
Flexible and can be changed/updated easily
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Graphical Can involve a range of stakeholders,
not just scientists/researchers
Gender and age representation
Facilitates communication between stakeholder groups
Consensus and relationship-building
Quantitative Comparison/prioritization of largest risks
Comparison/prioritization of management actions
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BN structure directly from conceptual diagram
Water for Human Survival
Rainfall Pollution
Climate Changeand Variability
Population Increase
Non-Human Activities
Overextraction
Geological Change
Resource Owners Management and
Legislation
Water Quantity Water Quality
Natural Disasters- earthquakes- volcanoes- flooding- drought
Government- policy- commitment- funds
Human Activities
* Runoff Quality (Microbial)
adequate
inadequate
55.0
45.0
210 ± 120
* Supply Quality (Sediment)
high
low
22.0
78.0
4.7 ± 4.8
* Treatment (Settling)
yes
no
50.0
50.0
Catchment Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Water Quality
goodmoderatepoor
36.417.845.8
Environment/ Ecosystem Health
good
moderate
poor
33.3
33.3
33.3
Water for Human Survival
morethansufficientsufficientinsufficient
48.220.131.7
Traditional Customs/Culture
Influential
LessInfluential
50.0
50.0
# Household Demand/Usage
Overuse
NormalUse
46.7
53.3
Logging Area
high
medium
low
44.2
21.2
34.5
Policy and Planning
EasyToChange
DifficultToChange
50.0
50.0
Government Management
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Recognition
agreed
disputed
50.0
50.0
Lease Agreement/ Management Partnership
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Rainfall
high
moderate
low
41.3
27.7
31.0
160 ± 89
Flooding
yes
no
39.5
60.5
Employment
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
Education
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
# Other Pollutants
high
low
50.0
50.0
2.25 ± 1.5
Royalty Payments
regular
irregular
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Type
customary
noncustomary
50.0
50.0
Leadership at all levels/sectors
good
poor
50.0
50.0
Leakage and Losses
high
low
51.7
48.3
35.5 ± 18* Dependability of Hh Supply
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Sanitation
adequate
inadequate
50.0
50.0
50 ± 29
Agriculture
high
medium
low
33.3
33.3
33.3
Electricity
Discontinuous
Continuous
50.0
50.0
Maintenance
Regular
Irregular
50.0
50.0
Social Disputes (e.g. land, ethnic)
frequent
infrequent
50.0
50.0
Affordability
Affordable
Unaffordable
54.7
45.3
4.23 ± 3
* Supply Quality (Microbial)
aboveWHOlevel
belowWHOlevel
49.7
50.3
3.98 ± 2.9
Household Income
high
low
47.0
53.0
2380 ± 2400
* Supply Quantity
morethan210Lpd
from70to210Lpd
lessthan70Lpd
64.4
18.7
16.9
228 ± 120
Water Quantity
high
adequate
inadequate
42.6
24.2
33.2
Climate Variability
wetter
nochange
drier
33.3
33.3
33.3
Soil Erosion
high
medium
low
27.2
31.0
41.8
37.3 ± 27
* Runoff Quality (Sediment )
high
low
40.2
59.8
5.02 ± 5.9
* Cost of Treatment and Infrastructure
high
low
50.0
50.0
Access/Availability of Water
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Geological Change
Recent
NotRecent
50.0
50.0
* Sinks and Springs
blocked
clear
35.8
64.2
* Runoff Quantity
high
medium
low
53.1
20.4
26.6
* Cost of Electricity
high
low
50.0
50.0
* Cost of Supply
high
low
44.2
55.8 * Price of Water
high
low
42.1
57.9
1.59 ± 1.1
* Treatment (Chlorination)
adequate
inadequate
50.0
50.0
1.35 ± 1.6
Animal waste
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Water Use Awareness
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Urban Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Kongulai Model
# Other Pollutants
high
low
50.0
50.0
2.25 ± 1.5
* Runoff Quality (Microbial)
adequate
inadequate
55.0
45.0
210 ± 120
* Supply Quality (Sediment)
high
low
22.0
78.0
4.7 ± 4.8
* Treatment (Settling)
yes
no
50.0
50.0
Catchment Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Water Quality
goodmoderatepoor
36.417.845.8
Environment/ Ecosystem Health
good
moderate
poor
33.3
33.3
33.3
Water for Human Survival
morethansufficientsufficientinsufficient
48.220.131.7
Traditional Customs/Culture
Influential
LessInfluential
50.0
50.0
# Household Demand/Usage
Overuse
NormalUse
46.7
53.3
Logging Area
high
medium
low
44.2
21.2
34.5
Policy and Planning
EasyToChange
DifficultToChange
50.0
50.0
Government Management
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Recognition
agreed
disputed
50.0
50.0
Lease Agreement/ Management Partnership
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Rainfall
high
moderate
low
41.3
27.7
31.0
160 ± 89
Flooding
yes
no
39.5
60.5
Employment
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
Education
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
Royalty Payments
regular
irregular
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Type
customary
noncustomary
50.0
50.0
Leadership at all levels/sectors
good
poor
50.0
50.0
Leakage and Losses
high
low
51.7
48.3
35.5 ± 18* Dependability of Hh Supply
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Sanitation
adequate
inadequate
50.0
50.0
50 ± 29
Agriculture
high
medium
low
33.3
33.3
33.3
Electricity
Discontinuous
Continuous
50.0
50.0
Maintenance
Regular
Irregular
50.0
50.0
Social Disputes (e.g. land, ethnic)
frequent
infrequent
50.0
50.0
Affordability
Affordable
Unaffordable
54.7
45.3
4.23 ± 3
* Supply Quality (Microbial)
aboveWHOlevelbelowWHOlevel
49.750.3
3.98 ± 2.9Household Income
high
low
47.0
53.0
2380 ± 2400
* Supply Quantity
morethan210Lpd
from70to210Lpd
lessthan70Lpd
64.4
18.7
16.9
228 ± 120
Water Quantity
high
adequate
inadequate
42.6
24.2
33.2
Climate Variability
wetter
nochange
drier
33.3
33.3
33.3
Soil Erosion
high
medium
low
27.2
31.0
41.8
37.3 ± 27
* Runoff Quality (Sediment )
high
low
40.2
59.8
5.02 ± 5.9
* Cost of Treatment and Infrastructure
high
low
50.0
50.0
Access/Availability of Water
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Geological Change
Recent
NotRecent
50.0
50.0
* Sinks and Springs
blocked
clear
35.8
64.2
* Runoff Quantity
high
medium
low
53.1
20.4
26.6
* Cost of Electricity
high
low
50.0
50.0
* Cost of Supply
high
low
44.2
55.8 * Price of Water
high
low
42.1
57.9
1.59 ± 1.1
* Treatment (Chlorination)
adequateinadequate
50.050.0
1.35 ± 1.6
Animal waste
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Water Use Awareness
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Urban Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Kongulai Model
# Other Pollutants
high
low
50.0
50.0
2.25 ± 1.5
* Runoff Quality (Microbial)
adequate
inadequate
55.0
45.0
210 ± 120
* Supply Quality (Sediment)
high
low
22.0
78.0
4.7 ± 4.8
* Treatment (Settling)
yes
no
50.0
50.0
Catchment Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Water Quality
goodmoderatepoor
53.216.830.0
Environment/ Ecosystem Health
good
moderate
poor
33.3
33.3
33.3
Water for Human Survival
morethansufficientsufficientinsufficient
51.119.429.5
Traditional Customs/Culture
Influential
LessInfluential
50.0
50.0
# Household Demand/Usage
Overuse
NormalUse
46.7
53.3
Logging Area
high
medium
low
44.2
21.2
34.5
Policy and Planning
EasyToChange
DifficultToChange
50.0
50.0
Government Management
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Recognition
agreed
disputed
50.0
50.0
Lease Agreement/ Management Partnership
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Rainfall
high
moderate
low
41.3
27.7
31.0
160 ± 89
Flooding
yes
no
39.5
60.5
Employment
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
Education
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
Royalty Payments
regular
irregular
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Type
customary
noncustomary
50.0
50.0
Leadership at all levels/sectors
good
poor
50.0
50.0
Leakage and Losses
high
low
51.7
48.3
35.5 ± 18* Dependability of Hh Supply
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Sanitation
adequate
inadequate
50.0
50.0
50 ± 29
Agriculture
high
medium
low
33.3
33.3
33.3
Electricity
Discontinuous
Continuous
50.0
50.0
Maintenance
Regular
Irregular
50.0
50.0
Social Disputes (e.g. land, ethnic)
frequent
infrequent
50.0
50.0
Affordability
Affordable
Unaffordable
54.7
45.3
4.23 ± 3
* Supply Quality (Microbial)
aboveWHOlevelbelowWHOlevel
18.981.1
2.44 ± 2.3Household Income
high
low
47.0
53.0
2380 ± 2400
* Supply Quantity
morethan210Lpd
from70to210Lpd
lessthan70Lpd
64.4
18.7
16.9
228 ± 120
Water Quantity
high
adequate
inadequate
42.6
24.2
33.2
Climate Variability
wetter
nochange
drier
33.3
33.3
33.3
Soil Erosion
high
medium
low
27.2
31.0
41.8
37.3 ± 27
* Runoff Quality (Sediment )
high
low
40.2
59.8
5.02 ± 5.9
* Cost of Treatment and Infrastructure
high
low
50.0
50.0
Access/Availability of Water
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Geological Change
Recent
NotRecent
50.0
50.0
* Sinks and Springs
blocked
clear
35.8
64.2
* Runoff Quantity
high
medium
low
53.1
20.4
26.6
* Cost of Electricity
high
low
50.0
50.0
* Cost of Supply
high
low
44.2
55.8 * Price of Water
high
low
42.1
57.9
1.59 ± 1.1
* Treatment (Chlorination)
adequateinadequate
90.010.0
2.35 ± 1.5
Animal waste
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Water Use Awareness
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Urban Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Kongulai Model
* Runoff Quality (Microbial)
adequate
inadequate
55.0
45.0
210 ± 120
* Supply Quality (Sediment)
high
low
22.0
78.0
4.7 ± 4.8
* Treatment (Settling)
yes
no
50.0
50.0
Catchment Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Water Quality
goodmoderatepoor
53.216.830.0
Environment/ Ecosystem Health
good
moderate
poor
33.3
33.3
33.3
Water for Human Survival
morethansufficientsufficientinsufficient
51.119.429.5
Traditional Customs/Culture
Influential
LessInfluential
50.0
50.0
# Household Demand/Usage
Overuse
NormalUse
46.7
53.3
Logging Area
high
medium
low
44.2
21.2
34.5
Policy and Planning
EasyToChange
DifficultToChange
50.0
50.0
Government Management
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Recognition
agreed
disputed
50.0
50.0
Lease Agreement/ Management Partnership
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Rainfall
high
moderate
low
41.3
27.7
31.0
160 ± 89
Flooding
yes
no
39.5
60.5
Employment
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
Education
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
# Other Pollutants
highlow
50.050.0
2.25 ± 1.5
Royalty Payments
regular
irregular
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Type
customary
noncustomary
50.0
50.0
Leadership at all levels/sectors
good
poor
50.0
50.0
Leakage and Losses
high
low
51.7
48.3
35.5 ± 18* Dependability of Hh Supply
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Sanitation
adequate
inadequate
50.0
50.0
50 ± 29
Agriculture
high
medium
low
33.3
33.3
33.3
Electricity
Discontinuous
Continuous
50.0
50.0
Maintenance
Regular
Irregular
50.0
50.0
Social Disputes (e.g. land, ethnic)
frequent
infrequent
50.0
50.0
Affordability
Affordable
Unaffordable
54.7
45.3
4.23 ± 3
* Supply Quality (Microbial)
aboveWHOlevelbelowWHOlevel
18.981.1
2.44 ± 2.3Household Income
high
low
47.0
53.0
2380 ± 2400
* Supply Quantity
morethan210Lpd
from70to210Lpd
lessthan70Lpd
64.4
18.7
16.9
228 ± 120
Water Quantity
high
adequate
inadequate
42.6
24.2
33.2
Climate Variability
wetter
nochange
drier
33.3
33.3
33.3
Soil Erosion
high
medium
low
27.2
31.0
41.8
37.3 ± 27
* Runoff Quality (Sediment )
high
low
40.2
59.8
5.02 ± 5.9
* Cost of Treatment and Infrastructure
high
low
50.0
50.0
Access/Availability of Water
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Geological Change
Recent
NotRecent
50.0
50.0
* Sinks and Springs
blocked
clear
35.8
64.2
* Runoff Quantity
high
medium
low
53.1
20.4
26.6
* Cost of Electricity
high
low
50.0
50.0
* Cost of Supply
high
low
44.2
55.8 * Price of Water
high
low
42.1
57.9
1.59 ± 1.1
* Treatment (Chlorination)
adequateinadequate
90.010.0
2.35 ± 1.5
Animal waste
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Water Use Awareness
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Urban Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Kongulai Model
* Runoff Quality (Microbial)
adequate
inadequate
55.0
45.0
210 ± 120
* Supply Quality (Sediment)
high
low
22.0
78.0
4.7 ± 4.8
* Treatment (Settling)
yes
no
50.0
50.0
Catchment Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Water Quality
goodmoderatepoor
72.010.917.1
Environment/ Ecosystem Health
good
moderate
poor
33.3
33.3
33.3
Water for Human Survival
morethansufficientsufficientinsufficient
53.718.727.5
Traditional Customs/Culture
Influential
LessInfluential
50.0
50.0
# Household Demand/Usage
Overuse
NormalUse
46.7
53.3
Logging Area
high
medium
low
44.2
21.2
34.5
Policy and Planning
EasyToChange
DifficultToChange
50.0
50.0
Government Management
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Recognition
agreed
disputed
50.0
50.0
Lease Agreement/ Management Partnership
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Rainfall
high
moderate
low
41.3
27.7
31.0
160 ± 89
Flooding
yes
no
39.5
60.5
Employment
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
Education
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
# Other Pollutants
highlow
0 100
1 ± 0.58
Royalty Payments
regular
irregular
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Type
customary
noncustomary
50.0
50.0
Leadership at all levels/sectors
good
poor
50.0
50.0
Leakage and Losses
high
low
51.7
48.3
35.5 ± 18* Dependability of Hh Supply
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Sanitation
adequate
inadequate
50.0
50.0
50 ± 29
Agriculture
high
medium
low
33.3
33.3
33.3
Electricity
Discontinuous
Continuous
50.0
50.0
Maintenance
Regular
Irregular
50.0
50.0
Social Disputes (e.g. land, ethnic)
frequent
infrequent
50.0
50.0
Affordability
Affordable
Unaffordable
54.7
45.3
4.23 ± 3
* Supply Quality (Microbial)
aboveWHOlevelbelowWHOlevel
18.981.1
2.44 ± 2.3Household Income
high
low
47.0
53.0
2380 ± 2400
* Supply Quantity
morethan210Lpd
from70to210Lpd
lessthan70Lpd
64.4
18.7
16.9
228 ± 120
Water Quantity
high
adequate
inadequate
42.6
24.2
33.2
Climate Variability
wetter
nochange
drier
33.3
33.3
33.3
Soil Erosion
high
medium
low
27.2
31.0
41.8
37.3 ± 27
* Runoff Quality (Sediment )
high
low
40.2
59.8
5.02 ± 5.9
* Cost of Treatment and Infrastructure
high
low
50.0
50.0
Access/Availability of Water
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Geological Change
Recent
NotRecent
50.0
50.0
* Sinks and Springs
blocked
clear
35.8
64.2
* Runoff Quantity
high
medium
low
53.1
20.4
26.6
* Cost of Electricity
high
low
50.0
50.0
* Cost of Supply
high
low
44.2
55.8 * Price of Water
high
low
42.1
57.9
1.59 ± 1.1
* Treatment (Chlorination)
adequateinadequate
90.010.0
2.35 ± 1.5
Animal waste
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Water Use Awareness
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Urban Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Kongulai Model
* Runoff Quality (Microbial)
adequate
inadequate
55.0
45.0
210 ± 120
* Supply Quality (Sediment)
highlow
22.078.0
4.7 ± 4.8
* Treatment (Settling)
yesno
50.050.0
Catchment Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Water Quality
goodmoderatepoor
72.010.917.1
Environment/ Ecosystem Health
good
moderate
poor
33.3
33.3
33.3
Water for Human Survival
morethansufficientsufficientinsufficient
53.718.727.5
Traditional Customs/Culture
Influential
LessInfluential
50.0
50.0
# Household Demand/Usage
Overuse
NormalUse
46.7
53.3
Logging Area
high
medium
low
44.2
21.2
34.5
Policy and Planning
EasyToChange
DifficultToChange
50.0
50.0
Government Management
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Recognition
agreed
disputed
50.0
50.0
Lease Agreement/ Management Partnership
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Rainfall
high
moderate
low
41.3
27.7
31.0
160 ± 89
Flooding
yes
no
39.5
60.5
Employment
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
Education
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
# Other Pollutants
highlow
0 100
1 ± 0.58
Royalty Payments
regular
irregular
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Type
customary
noncustomary
50.0
50.0
Leadership at all levels/sectors
good
poor
50.0
50.0
Leakage and Losses
high
low
51.7
48.3
35.5 ± 18* Dependability of Hh Supply
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Sanitation
adequate
inadequate
50.0
50.0
50 ± 29
Agriculture
high
medium
low
33.3
33.3
33.3
Electricity
Discontinuous
Continuous
50.0
50.0
Maintenance
Regular
Irregular
50.0
50.0
Social Disputes (e.g. land, ethnic)
frequent
infrequent
50.0
50.0
Affordability
Affordable
Unaffordable
54.7
45.3
4.23 ± 3
* Supply Quality (Microbial)
aboveWHOlevelbelowWHOlevel
18.981.1
2.44 ± 2.3Household Income
high
low
47.0
53.0
2380 ± 2400
* Supply Quantity
morethan210Lpd
from70to210Lpd
lessthan70Lpd
64.4
18.7
16.9
228 ± 120
Water Quantity
high
adequate
inadequate
42.6
24.2
33.2
Climate Variability
wetter
nochange
drier
33.3
33.3
33.3
Soil Erosion
high
medium
low
27.2
31.0
41.8
37.3 ± 27
* Runoff Quality (Sediment )
high
low
40.2
59.8
5.02 ± 5.9
* Cost of Treatment and Infrastructure
high
low
50.0
50.0
Access/Availability of Water
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Geological Change
Recent
NotRecent
50.0
50.0
* Sinks and Springs
blocked
clear
35.8
64.2
* Runoff Quantity
high
medium
low
53.1
20.4
26.6
* Cost of Electricity
high
low
50.0
50.0
* Cost of Supply
high
low
44.2
55.8 * Price of Water
high
low
42.1
57.9
1.59 ± 1.1
* Treatment (Chlorination)
adequateinadequate
90.010.0
2.35 ± 1.5
Animal waste
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Water Use Awareness
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Urban Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Kongulai Model
* Runoff Quality (Microbial)
adequate
inadequate
55.0
45.0
210 ± 120
* Supply Quality (Sediment)
highlow
10.090.0
3.5 ± 3.6
* Treatment (Settling)
yesno
100 0
Catchment Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Water Quality
goodmoderatepoor
78.58.1313.3
Environment/ Ecosystem Health
good
moderate
poor
33.3
33.3
33.3
Water for Human Survival
morethansufficientsufficientinsufficient
56.118.225.6
Traditional Customs/Culture
Influential
LessInfluential
50.0
50.0
# Household Demand/Usage
Overuse
NormalUse
46.7
53.3
Logging Area
high
medium
low
44.2
21.2
34.5
Policy and Planning
EasyToChange
DifficultToChange
50.0
50.0
Government Management
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Recognition
agreed
disputed
50.0
50.0
Lease Agreement/ Management Partnership
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Rainfall
high
moderate
low
41.3
27.7
31.0
160 ± 89
Flooding
yes
no
39.5
60.5
Employment
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
Education
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
# Other Pollutants
highlow
0 100
1 ± 0.58
Royalty Payments
regular
irregular
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Type
customary
noncustomary
50.0
50.0
Leadership at all levels/sectors
good
poor
50.0
50.0
Leakage and Losses
high
low
51.7
48.3
35.5 ± 18* Dependability of Hh Supply
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Sanitation
adequate
inadequate
50.0
50.0
50 ± 29
Agriculture
high
medium
low
33.3
33.3
33.3
Electricity
Discontinuous
Continuous
50.0
50.0
Maintenance
Regular
Irregular
50.0
50.0
Social Disputes (e.g. land, ethnic)
frequent
infrequent
50.0
50.0
Affordability
Affordable
Unaffordable
54.7
45.3
4.23 ± 3
* Supply Quality (Microbial)
aboveWHOlevelbelowWHOlevel
18.981.1
2.44 ± 2.3Household Income
high
low
47.0
53.0
2380 ± 2400
* Supply Quantity
morethan210Lpd
from70to210Lpd
lessthan70Lpd
72.0
14.3
13.8
244 ± 110
Water Quantity
high
adequate
inadequate
45.1
23.8
31.0
Climate Variability
wetter
nochange
drier
33.3
33.3
33.3
Soil Erosion
high
medium
low
27.2
31.0
41.8
37.3 ± 27
* Runoff Quality (Sediment )
high
low
40.2
59.8
5.02 ± 5.9
* Cost of Treatment and Infrastructure
high
low
50.0
50.0
Access/Availability of Water
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Geological Change
Recent
NotRecent
50.0
50.0
* Sinks and Springs
blocked
clear
35.8
64.2
* Runoff Quantity
high
medium
low
53.1
20.4
26.6
* Cost of Electricity
high
low
50.0
50.0
* Cost of Supply
high
low
44.2
55.8 * Price of Water
high
low
42.1
57.9
1.59 ± 1.1
* Treatment (Chlorination)
adequateinadequate
90.010.0
2.35 ± 1.5
Animal waste
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Water Use Awareness
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Urban Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Kongulai Model
* Runoff Quality (Microbial)
adequate
inadequate
57.9
42.1
216 ± 110
* Supply Quality (Sediment)
highlow
10.090.0
3.5 ± 3.6
* Treatment (Settling)
yesno
100 0
Catchment Population Increase
high
low
41.3
58.7
2.74 ± 1.7
Water Quality
goodmoderatepoor
78.78.0613.2
Environment/ Ecosystem Health
good
moderate
poor
33.3
33.3
33.3
Water for Human Survival
morethansufficientsufficientinsufficient
56.218.225.6
Traditional Customs/Culture
Influential
LessInfluential
50.0
50.0
# Household Demand/Usage
Overuse
NormalUse
46.7
53.3
Logging Area
highmediumlow
0 0
100
Policy and Planning
EasyToChange
DifficultToChange
50.0
50.0
Government Management
effective
ineffective
84.8
15.2
Land Tenure Recognition
agreed
disputed
50.0
50.0
Lease Agreement/ Management Partnership
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Rainfall
high
moderate
low
41.3
27.7
31.0
160 ± 89
Flooding
yes
no
39.5
60.5
Employment
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
Education
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
# Other Pollutants
highlow
0 100
1 ± 0.58
Royalty Payments
regular
irregular
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Type
customary
noncustomary
50.0
50.0
Leadership at all levels/sectors
good
poor
50.0
50.0
Leakage and Losses
high
low
51.7
48.3
35.5 ± 18* Dependability of Hh Supply
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Sanitation
adequate
inadequate
50.0
50.0
50 ± 29
Agriculture
highmediumlow
0 0
100
Electricity
Discontinuous
Continuous
50.0
50.0
Maintenance
Regular
Irregular
50.0
50.0
Social Disputes (e.g. land, ethnic)
frequent
infrequent
50.0
50.0
Affordability
Affordable
Unaffordable
54.7
45.3
4.23 ± 3
* Supply Quality (Microbial)
aboveWHOlevelbelowWHOlevel
18.681.4
2.43 ± 2.3Household Income
high
low
47.0
53.0
2380 ± 2400
* Supply Quantity
morethan210Lpd
from70to210Lpd
lessthan70Lpd
72.0
14.3
13.8
244 ± 110
Water Quantity
high
adequate
inadequate
45.1
23.8
31.0
Climate Variability
wetter
nochange
drier
33.3
33.3
33.3
Soil Erosion
high
medium
low
11.7
22.5
65.8
25.4 ± 22
* Runoff Quality (Sediment )
high
low
31.5
68.5
4.15 ± 5.5
* Cost of Treatment and Infrastructure
high
low
50.0
50.0
Access/Availability of Water
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Geological Change
Recent
NotRecent
50.0
50.0
* Sinks and Springs
blocked
clear
35.8
64.2
* Runoff Quantity
high
medium
low
53.1
20.4
26.6
* Cost of Electricity
high
low
50.0
50.0
* Cost of Supply
high
low
44.2
55.8 * Price of Water
high
low
42.1
57.9
1.59 ± 1.1
* Treatment (Chlorination)
adequateinadequate
90.010.0
2.35 ± 1.5
Animal waste
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Water Use Awareness
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Urban Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Kongulai Model
* Runoff Quality (Microbial)
adequate
inadequate
57.9
42.1
216 ± 110
* Supply Quality (Sediment)
highlow
10.090.0
3.5 ± 3.6
* Treatment (Settling)
yesno
100 0
Catchment Population Increase
high
low
41.3
58.7
2.74 ± 1.7
Water Quality
goodmoderatepoor
78.78.0613.2
Environment/ Ecosystem Health
good
moderate
poor
33.3
33.3
33.3
Water for Human Survival
morethansufficientsufficientinsufficient
56.218.225.6
Traditional Customs/Culture
Influential
LessInfluential
50.0
50.0
# Household Demand/Usage
Overuse
NormalUse
46.7
53.3
Logging Area
highmediumlow
0 0
100
Policy and Planning
EasyToChange
DifficultToChange
50.0
50.0
Government Management
effective
ineffective
84.8
15.2
Land Tenure Recognition
agreed
disputed
50.0
50.0
Lease Agreement/ Management Partnership
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Rainfall
highmoderatelow
41.327.731.0
160 ± 89
Flooding
yes
no
39.5
60.5
Employment
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
Education
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
# Other Pollutants
highlow
0 100
1 ± 0.58
Royalty Payments
regular
irregular
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Type
customary
noncustomary
50.0
50.0
Leadership at all levels/sectors
good
poor
50.0
50.0
Leakage and Losses
high
low
51.7
48.3
35.5 ± 18* Dependability of Hh Supply
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Sanitation
adequate
inadequate
50.0
50.0
50 ± 29
Agriculture
highmediumlow
0 0
100
Electricity
Discontinuous
Continuous
50.0
50.0
Maintenance
Regular
Irregular
50.0
50.0
Social Disputes (e.g. land, ethnic)
frequent
infrequent
50.0
50.0
Affordability
Affordable
Unaffordable
54.7
45.3
4.23 ± 3
* Supply Quality (Microbial)
aboveWHOlevelbelowWHOlevel
18.681.4
2.43 ± 2.3Household Income
high
low
47.0
53.0
2380 ± 2400
* Supply Quantity
morethan210Lpdfrom70to210Lpdlessthan70Lpd
72.014.313.8
244 ± 110
Water Quantity
highadequateinadequate
45.123.831.0
Climate Variability
wetter
nochange
drier
33.3
33.3
33.3
Soil Erosion
high
medium
low
11.7
22.5
65.8
25.4 ± 22
* Runoff Quality (Sediment )
high
low
31.5
68.5
4.15 ± 5.5
* Cost of Treatment and Infrastructure
high
low
50.0
50.0
Access/Availability of Water
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Geological Change
Recent
NotRecent
50.0
50.0
* Sinks and Springs
blocked
clear
35.8
64.2
* Runoff Quantity
highmediumlow
53.120.426.6
* Cost of Electricity
high
low
50.0
50.0
* Cost of Supply
high
low
44.2
55.8 * Price of Water
high
low
42.1
57.9
1.59 ± 1.1
* Treatment (Chlorination)
adequateinadequate
90.010.0
2.35 ± 1.5
Animal waste
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Water Use Awareness
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Urban Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Kongulai Model
* Runoff Quality (Microbial)
adequate
inadequate
57.9
42.1
216 ± 110
* Supply Quality (Sediment)
highlow
10.090.0
3.5 ± 3.6
* Treatment (Settling)
yesno
100 0
Catchment Population Increase
high
low
41.3
58.7
2.74 ± 1.7
Water Quality
goodmoderatepoor
78.78.0613.2
Environment/ Ecosystem Health
good
moderate
poor
33.3
33.3
33.3
Water for Human Survival
morethansufficientsufficientinsufficient
58.317.724.0
Traditional Customs/Culture
Influential
LessInfluential
50.0
50.0
# Household Demand/Usage
Overuse
NormalUse
46.7
53.3
Logging Area
highmediumlow
0 0
100
Policy and Planning
EasyToChange
DifficultToChange
50.0
50.0
Government Management
effective
ineffective
84.8
15.2
Land Tenure Recognition
agreed
disputed
50.0
50.0
Lease Agreement/ Management Partnership
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Rainfall
highmoderatelow
100 0 0
250 ± 29
Flooding
yes
no
78.3
21.7
Employment
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
Education
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
# Other Pollutants
highlow
0 100
1 ± 0.58
Royalty Payments
regular
irregular
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Type
customary
noncustomary
50.0
50.0
Leadership at all levels/sectors
good
poor
50.0
50.0
Leakage and Losses
high
low
51.7
48.3
35.5 ± 18* Dependability of Hh Supply
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Sanitation
adequate
inadequate
50.0
50.0
50 ± 29
Agriculture
highmediumlow
0 0
100
Electricity
Discontinuous
Continuous
50.0
50.0
Maintenance
Regular
Irregular
50.0
50.0
Social Disputes (e.g. land, ethnic)
frequent
infrequent
50.0
50.0
Affordability
Affordable
Unaffordable
54.7
45.3
4.23 ± 3
* Supply Quality (Microbial)
aboveWHOlevelbelowWHOlevel
18.681.4
2.43 ± 2.3Household Income
high
low
47.0
53.0
2380 ± 2400
* Supply Quantity
morethan210Lpdfrom70to210Lpdlessthan70Lpd
80.110.99.01
263 ± 100
Water Quantity
highadequateinadequate
48.223.728.1
Climate Variability
wetter
nochange
drier
75.8
21.0
3.23
Soil Erosion
high
medium
low
11.7
22.5
65.8
25.4 ± 22
* Runoff Quality (Sediment )
high
low
50.3
49.7
6.03 ± 6.2
* Cost of Treatment and Infrastructure
high
low
50.0
50.0
Access/Availability of Water
good
poor
54.0
46.0
Geological Change
Recent
NotRecent
50.0
50.0
* Sinks and Springs
blocked
clear
35.8
64.2
* Runoff Quantity
highmediumlow
72.810.616.6
* Cost of Electricity
high
low
50.0
50.0
* Cost of Supply
high
low
44.2
55.8 * Price of Water
high
low
42.1
57.9
1.59 ± 1.1
* Treatment (Chlorination)
adequateinadequate
90.010.0
2.35 ± 1.5
Animal waste
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Water Use Awareness
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Urban Population Increase
high
low
50.0
50.0
3 ± 1.7
Kongulai Model
* Runoff Quality (Microbial)
adequate
inadequate
6.67
93.3
113 ± 76
* Supply Quality (Sediment)
high
low
21.3
78.7
4.63 ± 4.7
* Treatment (Settling)
yes
no
50.0
50.0
Catchment Population Increase
highlow
100 0
4.5 ± 0.87
Water Quality
good
moderate
poor
14.5
19.3
66.2
Environment/ Ecosystem Health
good
moderate
poor
33.3
33.3
33.3
Water for Human Survival
morethansufficientsufficientinsufficient
34.120.945.0
Traditional Customs/Culture
Influential
LessInfluential
50.0
50.0
# Household Demand/Usage
Overuse
NormalUse
76.7
23.3
Logging Area
highmediumlow
100 0 0
Policy and Planning
EasyToChange
DifficultToChange
50.0
50.0
Government Management
effective
ineffective
19.2
80.8
Land Tenure Recognition
agreed
disputed
50.0
50.0
Lease Agreement/ Management Partnership
effective
ineffective
50.0
50.0
Rainfall
high
moderate
low
4.00
24.0
72.0
82 ± 62
Flooding
yes
no
11.5
88.5
Employment
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
Education
high
low
50.0
50.0
55 ± 29
# Other Pollutants
high
low
50.0
50.0
2.25 ± 1.5
Royalty Payments
regular
irregular
50.0
50.0
Land Tenure Type
customary
noncustomary
50.0
50.0
Leadership at all levels/sectors
good
poor
50.0
50.0
Leakage and Losses
high
low
61.7
38.3
38.5 ± 17* Dependability of Hh Supply
good
poor
12.0
88.0
Sanitation
adequateinadequate
0 100
25 ± 14
Agriculture
highmediumlow
100 0 0
Electricity
DiscontinuousContinuous
100 0
Maintenance
Regular
Irregular
50.0
50.0
Social Disputes (e.g. land, ethnic)
frequent
infrequent
58.6
41.4
Affordability
Affordable
Unaffordable
46.2
53.8
3.81 ± 2.9
* Supply Quality (Microbial)
aboveWHOlevel
belowWHOlevel
89.8
10.2
5.99 ± 2.5
Household Income
high
low
47.0
53.0
2380 ± 2400
* Supply Quantity
morethan210Lpd
from70to210Lpd
lessthan70Lpd
49.7
22.5
27.8
193 ± 130
Water Quantity
high
adequate
inadequate
26.4
25.3
48.4
Climate Variability
wetternochangedrier
0 0
100
Soil Erosion
high
medium
low
60.0
23.3
16.7
55.8 ± 28
* Runoff Quality (Sediment )
high
low
37.6
62.4
4.76 ± 5.8
* Cost of Treatment and Infrastructure
high
low
50.0
50.0
Access/Availability of Water
good
poor
12.0
88.0
Geological Change
RecentNotRecent
100 0
* Sinks and Springs
blockedclear
100 0
* Runoff Quantity
high
medium
low
17.7
27.2
55.1
* Cost of Electricity
highlow
100 0
* Cost of Supply
high
low
68.3
31.7 * Price of Water
high
low
61.1
38.9
1.97 ± 1.2
* Treatment (Chlorination)
adequateinadequate
0 100
0.1 ± 0.058
Animal waste
high
low
50.0
50.0
# Water Use Awareness
high
low
0
100
# Urban Population Increase
highlow
100 0
4.5 ± 0.87
Pessimistic scenario
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Sensitivity Analysis: Risk Prioritization1. Water Quantity2. Supply Quantity3. Water Quality4. Sediment in Supply 5. Affordability6. Runoff Quantity7. Demand/Use/Overuse8. Microbes in Water Supply9. Supply Dependability10. Access/Availability 11. Leakage/Unaccounted Losses12. Electricity13. Treatment (Chlorination)14. Household Income15. Supply Price16. Sinks/Springs17. Infrastructure Maintenance18. Other Pollutants19. Treatment (Settling)20. Supply Cost
21. Sediment in Runoff22. Urban Population Increase23. Employment 24. Rainfall25. Water Use Awareness26. Soil Erosion27. Electricity Cost28. Education29. Climate Variability 30. Geological Change31. Treatment Cost32. Social Disputes33. Logging34. Runoff Microbial35. Management 36. Catchment Population Increase37. Sanitation38. Agriculture39. Flooding40. Animal Waste
Problem Formulation
Risk Management
Monitoring
Review
Iterative P
rocess
(Ad
ap
tive Ma
na
gem
ent)Risk Characterization
Iterative P
rocess
(Mo
del D
evelop
men
t)
Consequences (Effects)
Likelihood(Exposure)
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Policy
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Key Outcomes
Consensus on how the catchment worked
Working model, in adoption, with staff capability
- ability to illustrate scenarios and compare “what could happen?” and “what should happen?” and estimate likelihood
Initial evidence base for system improvement, funding applications
New activity proposals- Skill building (mentored project at another catchment)
- Hydrology study (fill key knowledge gap)
- Settling tank
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Key Outcomes
New uses – communication with wider community
– health promotion/education
– policy discussion
Strengthened government relationships – Water Resources, SIWA, Health (not Lands)
Opened government-landowner relationships
Mobilised landowner interest and motivation
Capacity building– Government: participatory processes, risk assessment,
modelling
– Community: catchment understanding, engagement/communication with government
Problem Formulation
Risk Management
Monitoring
Review
Iterative P
rocess
(Ad
ap
tive Ma
na
gem
ent)Risk Characterization
Iterative P
rocess
(Mo
del D
evelop
men
t)
Consequences (Effects)
Likelihood(Exposure)
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Policy
www.sci.monash.edu
Summary
Multi/Inter-disciplinary: represent complex systems, combine demographic, social, economic as well as environmental factors
Quantitative: Tools that allow us to identify which impacts are most important to communities/stakeholders
Participatory: Allow better representation of stakeholder views (including the role of women and children)
www.sci.monash.edu
Summary
Multi/Inter-disciplinary: represent complex systems, combine demographic, social, economic as well as environmental factors
Quantitative: Tools that allow us to identify which impacts are most important to communities/stakeholders
Participatory: Allow better representation of stakeholder views (including the role of women and children)
Chan et al., 2010, Water Resources Research 46 DOI:10.1029/2009wr008848 Chan et al., 2010, River Research and Applications 26 DOI: (tba).
www.sci.monash.edu
Other Examples
Kongulai Catchment, Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands
Daly River Catchment, Northern Territory, Australia
Yarra, Latrobe, Loddon, Agnes, Franklin and Woori Yallock River Catchments, Victoria, Australia
www.sci.monash.edu
www.sci.monash.edu
Ciliwung
River,
Indonesia
Mahanadi
River,
India
Red
River,
Vietnam
Integrated
Catchment
Management
Forest
Management
Knowledge
Management
Capacity
Building
Water and Carbon
Management Program
www.sci.monash.edu
Ciliwung
River,
Indonesia
Mahanadi
River,
India
Red
River,
Vietnam
Integrated
Catchment
Management
Forest
Management
Knowledge
Management
Capacity
Building
Water and Carbon
Management Program
www.sci.monash.edu
Ciliwung
River,
Indonesia
Mahanadi
River,
India
Red
River,
Vietnam
Integrated
Catchment
Management
Forest
Management
Knowledge
Management
Capacity
Building
Water and Carbon
Management Program
Area: 37,472 ha Area: 37,472 ha
Forest area: 3709 haForest area: 3709 ha
Population: 1,892,980 Population: 1,892,980
Density 5.100 people/km2Density 5.100 people/km2
Upper catchment: Upper catchment:
Forests/parks, plantationsForests/parks, plantations
Middle catchment: Middle catchment:
dense residential dense residential
(cities of Bogor, (cities of Bogor,
Cibinong, Depok) Cibinong, Depok)
Lower catchment: Lower catchment:
dense residential dense residential
((JAKARTAJAKARTA ))
Ciliwung Catchment
DAS Ciliwung 2003, IPB and DAS CC
Area: 37,472 ha Area: 37,472 ha
Forest area: 3709 haForest area: 3709 ha
Population: 1,892,980 Population: 1,892,980
Density 5.100 people/km2Density 5.100 people/km2
Upper catchment: Upper catchment:
Forests/parks, Forests/parks,
tea plantationstea plantations
Middle catchment: Middle catchment:
dense residential dense residential
(cities of Bogor, (cities of Bogor,
Cibinong, Depok) Cibinong, Depok)
Lower catchment: Lower catchment:
dense residential dense residential
((JAKARTAJAKARTA ))
Ciliwung Catchment
Average Catchment
Imperviousness
Education
Climate Change
Scenarios
Erodability
Topography/Slope Terracing
Equivalent
Common Land
Commonly
Owned Land
Community
Pressure
Sanitation
Precipitation
Event Frequency
Likelihood
Of Event
Infiltration3
Infiltration4
SubBaseFlowStorage
BaseFlowStorage
BaseFlow
SurfaceFlowInfiltration1
SurfaceStorage
Cost Of
Dredging
Cost Of Poor
Water Quality
Precipitation
Volume
Land
Degradation
Cost Of
Flooding
Cost To
Agriculture
Area of Land
Inundated
Overall
Cost
Ecosystem
Health
NutrientsCost Of
Health ImpactsTDML_Sediment
Flood
FrequencyTDML_E_Coli
Flood
Magnitude
Cost To
Infrastructure
Cost To
Fisheries
Microdams
Equivalent
Urban Area
Urban
Area
Population
Density
Toxic
Pollutants
Bioretention
Forest
Area
Natural
Forest Area
Tea Plantation
Area
Jurisdictional
Uncertainty
Infiltration2
IntermediateStorage
IntermediateFlow
SubsurfaceFlow
SubBaseFlow
SubsurfaceStorage
Revegetation
Funding
Political
Decisions
Leadership
IMPACTS/OBJECTIVES
Ciliwung Conceptual Diagram
CATCHMENT
PROCESSES
CATCHMENT
CHARACTERISTICS
SOCIO-ECONOMIC/
MANAGEMENT FACTORS
www.sci.monash.edu
Hydrological modelling
www.sci.monash.edu
Hydrological modelling
Average Catchment
Imperviousness
Education
Climate Change
Scenarios
Erodability
Topography/Slope Terracing
Equivalent
Common Land
Commonly
Owned Land
Community
Pressure
Sanitation
Precipitation
Event Frequency
Likelihood
Of Event
Infiltration3
Infiltration4
SubBaseFlowStorage
BaseFlowStorage
BaseFlow
SurfaceFlowInfiltration1
SurfaceStorage
Cost Of
Dredging
Precipitation
Volume
Land
Degradation
Cost Of
Flooding
Cost To
Agriculture
Area of Land
Inundated
Ecosystem
Health
NutrientsTDML_Sediment
Flood
FrequencyTDML_E_ColiFlood
Magnitude
Cost To
InfrastructureCost To
Fisheries
Microdams
Equivalent
Urban Area
Urban
Area
Population
Density
Toxic
Pollutants
Bioretention
Forest
Area
Natural
Forest Area
Tea Plantation
Area
Jurisdictional
Uncertainty
Infiltration2
IntermediateStorage
IntermediateFlow
SubsurfaceFlow
SubBaseFlow
SubsurfaceStorage
Revegetation
Funding
Political
Decisions
Leadership
Cost Of Poor
Water Quality
Cost Of
Health Impacts
Overall
Cost
Example Causal Chain Ciliwung River Catchment, Indonesia
Ciliwung Bayesian Network
Average Catchment
Imperviousness
Education
Climate Change
Scenarios
Erodability
Topography/Slope Terracing
Equivalent
Common Land
Commonly
Owned Land
Community
Pressure
Sanitation
LowMediumHigh
33.333.333.3
63.3 ± 31
Precipitation
Event Frequency
Likelihood
Of Event
Infiltration3
Infiltration4
SubBaseFlowStorage
BaseFlowStorage
BaseFlow
SurfaceFlowInfiltration1
SurfaceStorage
Cost Of
Dredging
Precipitation
Volume
Land
Degradation
Cost Of
Flooding
Cost To
Agriculture
Area of Land
Inundated
Ecosystem
Health
NutrientsTDML_Sediment
Flood
Frequency
TDML_E_Coli
LowMediumHigh
39.433.027.6
Flood
Magnitude
Cost To
InfrastructureCost To
Fisheries
Microdams
Equivalent
Urban Area
Urban
Area
Population Density
LessThanCurrentCurrentMoreThanCurrent
33.333.333.3
Toxic
Pollutants
Bioretention
Forest
Area
Natural
Forest Area
Tea Plantation
Area
Jurisdictional
Uncertainty
Infiltration2
IntermediateStorage
IntermediateFlow
SubsurfaceFlow
SubBaseFlow
SubsurfaceStorage
Revegetation
Funding
Political
Decisions
Leadership
Cost Of Poor Water Quality
LowMediumHigh
39.530.030.5
Cost Of Health Impacts
LowMediumHigh
50.119.930.0
Overall Cost
LowMediumHigh
23.434.741.9
2.68e9 ± 8.4e8
Ciliwung Bayesian Network
Average Catchment
Imperviousness
Education
Climate Change
Scenarios
Erodability
Topography/Slope Terracing
Equivalent
Common Land
Commonly
Owned Land
Community
Pressure
Sanitation
LowMediumHigh
100 0 0
25 ± 14
Precipitation
Event Frequency
Likelihood
Of Event
Infiltration3
Infiltration4
SubBaseFlowStorage
BaseFlowStorage
BaseFlow
SurfaceFlowInfiltration1
SurfaceStorage
Cost Of
Dredging
Precipitation
Volume
Land
Degradation
Cost Of
Flooding
Cost To
Agriculture
Area of Land
Inundated
Ecosystem
Health
NutrientsTDML_Sediment
Flood
Frequency
TDML_E_Coli
LowMediumHigh
6.6720.073.3
Flood
Magnitude
Cost To
InfrastructureCost To
Fisheries
Microdams
Equivalent
Urban Area
Urban
Area
Population Density
LessThanCurrentCurrentMoreThanCurrent
0 0
100
Toxic
Pollutants
Bioretention
Forest
Area
Natural
Forest Area
Tea Plantation
Area
Jurisdictional
Uncertainty
Infiltration2
IntermediateStorage
IntermediateFlow
SubsurfaceFlow
SubBaseFlow
SubsurfaceStorage
Revegetation
Funding
Political
Decisions
Leadership
Cost Of Poor Water Quality
LowMediumHigh
27.628.743.7
Cost Of Health Impacts
LowMediumHigh
17.716.066.3
Overall Cost
LowMediumHigh
17.632.150.2
2.83e9 ± 8.1e8
Ciliwung Bayesian Network
Average Catchment
Imperviousness
Education
Climate Change
Scenarios
Erodability
Topography/Slope Terracing
Equivalent
Common Land
Commonly
Owned Land
Community
Pressure
Sanitation
LowMediumHigh
0 0
100
95 ± 2.9
Precipitation
Event Frequency
Likelihood
Of Event
Infiltration3
Infiltration4
SubBaseFlowStorage
BaseFlowStorage
BaseFlow
SurfaceFlowInfiltration1
SurfaceStorage
Cost Of
Dredging
Precipitation
Volume
Land
Degradation
Cost Of
Flooding
Cost To
Agriculture
Area of Land
Inundated
Ecosystem
Health
NutrientsTDML_Sediment
Flood
Frequency
TDML_E_Coli
LowMediumHigh
80.020.0
0
Flood
Magnitude
Cost To
InfrastructureCost To
Fisheries
Microdams
Equivalent
Urban Area
Urban
Area
Population Density
LessThanCurrentCurrentMoreThanCurrent
100 0 0
Toxic
Pollutants
Bioretention
Forest
Area
Natural
Forest Area
Tea Plantation
Area
Jurisdictional
Uncertainty
Infiltration2
IntermediateStorage
IntermediateFlow
SubsurfaceFlow
SubBaseFlow
SubsurfaceStorage
Revegetation
Funding
Political
Decisions
Leadership
Cost Of Poor Water Quality
LowMediumHigh
49.430.819.8
Cost Of Health Impacts
LowMediumHigh
80.016.04.00
Overall Cost
LowMediumHigh
28.236.735.1
2.57e9 ± 8.4e8
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On-going Work
Indonesia: Ciliwung Catchment, additional spatial planning proposal with BHP Billiton
India and Bangladesh: Ganges Catchment, interdisciplinary workshop in Kolkata, water and forests
Vietnam: Red River Catchment, Mekong Delta
www.sci.monash.edu
Future Work
Brahmaputra Catchment impacts from climate change – bringing in Nepal and Bhutan (IITB, TERI, IDSK, Uni Dhaka, Khulna Uni, and possibly IITD)
Climate and hydrology – biophysical and socio-economic linkages (AISRF)
Forthcoming AusAID workshop on international river management –research and policy
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