Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts of Hydro-

meteorological Disasters: Recent Experiences &

DevelopmentsTi Le-Huu

Water Resources SectionEnvironment and Sustainable

Development DivisionUNESCAP

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Objectives of the projectPromote sound assessment methodology for decision-making in Asia & PacificIdentify systematic approaches to integrate disaster risk management into socio-economic developmentCase studies for priority policies & strategiesIdentification of future directions

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Background

Importance of natural disasters in Asia and the PacificIncreasing impacts of disasters on the developing countriesMost of the World’s poor live in Asia and obvious increasing impacts of disasters on the poor

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Source: Munich Re, 2005

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ON DEVELOPING DEVELOPING

COUNTRIIESCOUNTRIIESINDUSTRIALIZED INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIESCOUNTRIES

** DISASTDISASTERER

EFFECT OF DISASTERS ON CAPITAL FORMATION Adapted from Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, polítifcoseconómicos, ambientales y su relación con el desarrollo de nuestros países(BID, 1999)

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UNESCAP International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain -Brussels -

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(Damage in US$ thousands)

Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net - UniversitéCatholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium"

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In India, recent trends are decreasing.In Thailand, overall trends are increasing, except recent damage trendIn Philippines, all trends are increasing, except recent house

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In Japan and ROK, decreasing trends of disasters impact are obvious, although it is much clearer in the case of Japan

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Actual process and changes

Complexity of systems: procedures and standardsAcceptance of conceptPractical arrangementsNew issuesTowards standardization

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ArrangementsSeven case studiesUNESCAP provides technical back up to case studiesCountry teams play prominent rolesLearning from the past to propose changesComplementary among countries

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The case studies

China: floodLao PDR: floodPakistan: droughtPhilippines: flood & typhoonSri Lanka: flood & droughtThailand: flood & landslidesViet Nam: flood

UNESCAP China case study

Flood the Huai He River Basin –Zhouxian County – An HuiProvinceZhouxian County is one of the poorest county of the countryIndirect loss > 40% direct damageImpacts on the housing sector, most important. Possible procedures for systematic assessment were identified Recommendations: adoption with new formats for data collection and allocation of emergency resources.

UNESCAP Lao case study

Flood in Vientiane plainIndirect loss in agriculture > 50% direct damageIndirect loss in water supply > 40%Indirect loss in transport > 20%Total loss has almost doubled the initial estimateRecommendations: adoption with new formats for data collection

UNESCAP Pakistan Case study

Indirect loss in livestock > 70% of direct damageIndirect loss in orchards > 70%Indirect loss in wheat > 100%Total loss: Rs32 billion versus Rs3.5 billion of direct damage Total loss: twice of GRDPRecommendation: templates for future assessment

UNESCAP Philippine case study

Total loss > 3 times direct damageMacro-economic model was supported by detailed ECLAC assessmentSystematic method of assessment of crop damage was incorporatedMacro-economic modelling was used to support systematic assessmentRecommendation: adoption for assessment and resources allocationTemplates being prepared

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h

Tillering Panicle Initiation Flowering Ri

ence Estimated Yield Loss (%)

10 15 - 25 10 - 15 15 - 20 20 - 45 15 – 25 10 20 - 30 30 - 80 2 0 – 30 15 30 - 50 50 - 100 30 - 70 15

PADDY: Yield Loss in Clear Water

Flooding

PADDY: Yield Loss in Clear Water

Flooding

Source: Dep of Agricultrue, Philippines

UNESCAP CORNYield Loss Due to

Strong Wind

CORNYield Loss Due to

Strong Wind

☻☻

Growth Stage

Vegetative Reproductive Maturing WindVelocity: 101 - 150 KPH Estimated Yield Loss (%)

< 12 hrs 20 55 25 ≥ 12 hrs 25 60 30

Wind Velocity: > 150 KPH Estimated Yield Loss (%)

< 12 hrs 40 80 60 ≥ 12 hrs 50 80 -100 75

Source: Dep of Agricultrue, Philippines

UNESCAP Sri Lanka case study

Total loss Rs11.4 billion > direct damage of Rs2.78 billionIndirect loss in agriculture > 100% direct damageSocial sector, incl. housing a major area of policy concernCentral Bank has agreed to adopt the methodology for future assessment

UNESCAP Thai case study

Flash flood and landslidesFirst efforts mainly by Government to carry out field investigationsHas improved existing data collection systemWill further apply to other recent landslides

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Vietnamese case study

Indirect impacts = 100% direct damage, especially for fruit cropHousing accounts 77% total impactsHouses are classified to facilitate rapid assessmentApplication being made for contingency planning

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Future directions

Systematic training program: Standardization to facilitate applicationEstablishment of Network of expertsIntegration of assessment for effective implementation of HFASupport GRIP

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disasterrisk

hotspots

Mortality

Cyclone

Totaleconomiclosses

Economiclosses inproportioto GDPper unitarea

Source: UNDP-World Bank, GRIP

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disasterrisk

hotspots

Drought

Mortality

Totaleconomiclosses

Economiclosses inproportioto GDPper unitarea

Source: UNDP-World Bank, GRIP

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disasterrisk

hotspots

Flood

Mortality

Totaleconomiclosses

Economiclosses inproportioto GDPper unitarea

Source: UNDP-World Bank, GRIP

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disasterrisk

hotspots

Earthquake

Mortality

Totaleconomiclosses

Economiclosses inproportioto GDPper unitarea

Source: UNDP-World Bank, GRIP

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disasterrisk

hotspots

Landslide

Mortality

Totaleconomiclosses

Economiclosses inproportioto GDPper unitarea

Source: UNDP-World Bank, GRIP

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disasterrisk

hotspots

Highest hazard risk

Mortality

Totaleconomiclosses

Economiclosses inproportioto GDPper unitarea

Source: UNDP-World Bank, GRIP

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Thank you