asean outlook survey

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The American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore (AmCham Singapore) and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, in cooperation with other AmChams in the ASEAN region, conducted a study among AmCham members of American businesses in seven Southeast Asian countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

This study, now in its 11th year, builds on previous studies conducted by AmCham Singapore and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The purpose of the study was to understand members’ outlook on business growth and perceptions about a series of local factors in the ASEAN region. The members surveyed were senior executives, working with for a companyies held by or with an American majority interests. For the first time in 2012, multiple senior members from each U.S. company were asked to complete the survey. This regional report presents collective feedback received from senior members of: The American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore, The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, The American Cambodian Business Council, The American Malaysian Chamber of Commerce, The American Chamber of Commerce of The Philippines, The American Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia, The American Chamber of Commerce in Thailand, and The American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi).

INTRODUCTION

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• The outlook on investment opportunities in ASEAN is good across the region, with 92% of respondents indicating a positive outlook, with 70% of respondents plan to expand their business in ASEAN.

• Expansion is expected to continue region-wide. The most popular location for expansion is Vietnam, followed by Thailand.

• Companies view ASEAN economic integration as very important, yet are sceptical that ASEAN will achieve its ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) goals by 2015.

• Fewer than half of the respondents say they can utilize the provisions of ASEAN’s free trade agreements with major trading partners, including China, India, Japan, Australia & New Zealand, and South Korea. Large majorities indicated that those agreements are important to their future investment plans in the region.

• Corruption continues to be the most significant concern across the region. In addition, housing costs emerged as a new concern this year, most prominent in Singapore.

02 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 04 ASEAN INTEGRATION AND FTAS06 BUSINESS EXPANSION IN ASEAN10 STRENGTHS AND CHALLENGES 11 WORKFORCE EXPANSION11 EXPATRIATE SATISFACTION14 CAMBODIA REPORT HIGHLIGHTS15 INDONESIA REPORT HIGHLIGHTS

16 MALAYSIA REPORT HIGHLIGHTS17 PHILIPPINES REPORT HIGHLIGHTS18 SINGAPORE REPORT HIGHLIGHTS19 THAILAND REPORT HIGHLIGHTS20 VIETNAM REPORT HIGHLIGHTS21 SURVEY METHODOLOGY21 PROFILE OF RESPONDENTS23 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

01

02

ECONOMIC OUTLOOKINVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY IN ASEAN ASEAN’s economic outlook continues to be positive after the volatility of the past few years. More than nine in ten business executives (92%) have a positive or very positive outlook on the investment opportunities for their company in the ASEAN region. Respondents in both the services and manufacturing sectors were equally positive, at 90%.

At least 84% of respondents indicate a positive outlook for the region as a whole. Respondents in Cambodia and Indonesia have the most optimistic outlooks of all countries surveyed, with 100% reporting a positive or very positive outlook, while those in the Philippines are nearly as optimistic (96% positive or very positive).

Very positive Somewhat positive Neutral Negative

ASEAN Investment Opportunity Outlook

55% 37% 6% 1%

Regional Total

Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Cambodia

ASEAN Investment Opportunity Outlook (By Country)

6%1%

37%

55%

5%

2%

37%

56%

7%0%

47%

47%

9%

0%

41%

49%

3%0%

38%

58%

13%

2%

38%

47%

0%

32%

68%

0%

19%

81%

Negative Neutral Positive Very PositiveVery Negative

03

90% of survey respondents expect their companies’ trade and investment to increase in the ASEAN region over the next five years. 27% expect the level to increase significantly.

PROFIT OUTLOOKThe majority of respondents (70%) expect their companies’ profits to increase in 2012 and 85% expect a profit increase in 2013.

Level of Trade/Investment in ASEAN Past 2 Years

25% 54% 17% 3%

Increase significantly Increase Stay at about the same level Decrease

Increase significantly Increase Stay at about the same level Decrease

Level of Trade/Investment in ASEAN Next 5 Years

27% 63% 8% 1%

2012 Decrease 2012 Remain 2012 Increase 2013 Decrease 2013 Remain 2013 Increase

Compared to 2011, do you expect your profits in ASEAN to increase, decrease, or remain the same in 2012 and 2013?

Regional Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Cambodia

Business executives report strong increases in the level of investment by their company in the ASEAN region. 79% of respondents indicate that their company’s level of trade and investment in the ASEAN region has increased in the past two years. One quarter of the respondents say it has increased significantly, while 17% say it has stayed about the same, and 3% say it has decreased.

04

FINANCING AND COSTS OF BORROWINGThe percentage of respondents experiencing significant financing constraints has decreased over the past three years, from 24% in 2009 to 20% in 2011 and 19% in 2012. Regional experiences with costs of borrowing remained similar to those of the past two years, with much variance across the region.

IMPORTANCE OF ASEAN INTEGRATIONASEAN economic integration is valuable to majority of respondents, with 65% reporting that this integration is important to helping their companies do business in the region. Of all the countries surveyed, executives in Vietnam had the highest positive response rate (76%).

2009 2010 2011 2012

Percentage of respondents facing significant financing constraints

Regional Total


2009 2010 2011 2012

Percentage of respondents facing higher costs of borrowing

Regional Total


Yes No

Is ASEAN integration important to helping your company do business in the region?


ASEAN INTEGRATION AND FTAs

05

ASEAN REGIONAL AGREEMENTSBusiness executives in the ASEAN region consider each of the five regional agreements assessed to be important to their company’s investment plans in the region. Importance ratings range from 64% for the Framework Agreement on Services to 55% on the Comprehensive Investment Agreement.

ASEAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENTSFewer than half of business executives surveyed say their company can utilize the provisions of ASEAN’s free trade agreements with major trading partners. 47% of respondents report that their companies can use the provisions of the ASEAN-China agreement, while 30% can do so under the Korea agreement.

The data below shows the responses for each agreement.

Can your company utilize the provisions of the agreement to export goods or services from ASEAN to the specified country?

Not Sure No Yes

Australia & New Zealand

China India Japan Korea

Importance of ASEAN Regional Agreements

Important Neutral / Not Important / Not Sure

64%

61%

60%

58%

55%

36%

39%

40%

42%

45%

06

However, the majority of respondents consider the ASEAN Free Trade Agreements to be either important or extremely important to their investment plans in the region.

LOCATION OF BUSINESS EXPANSION IN ASEANVietnam is by far the most popular location for expansion, receiving 57% of responses. Thailand is the second most popular location at only 11%. No respondents indicated that their top location for expansion was Brunei.

BUSINESS EXPANSION IN ASEAN

Importance of ASEAN FTAs

Australia and New Zealand

China India Japan Korea

Not at all Important Not Important Neutral Important Extremely Important

Location of Expansion in ASEAN

Vietnam Thailand Singapore Philippines Indonesia Myanmar Cambodia Malaysia Laos

07

DIVERSIFYING OPERATIONS FROM CHINA TO ASEANIn this year’s survey, significantly more respondents reported that their companies are planning to diversify some investments or business from China into ASEAN over the next two years than when asked in 2011. Vietnam is the only country in which fewer respondents plan to diversify investments away from China in 2012.

BUSINESS DIRECTION IN MYANMARThe large majority of respondents (72%) either support or strongly support the United States government’s decision to suspend some sanctions currently placed on Myanmar. Only 2% of the respondents are in opposition to suspending sanctions. Respondents based in Cambodia are the strongest supporters, with 81% indicating either support or strong support.

“Yes” 2011 “Yes” 2012

Does your company plan to diversify some investments or business from China into ASEAN Over the Next Two Years?


Strongly Oppose Oppose Neutral Support Strongly Support

Please indicate how you feel about the United States government suspending sanctions on Myanmar


08

33% of respondents are either currently exporting, planning to export, or considering exporting. Vietnam and Thailand had the largest numbers of respondents considering exporting to Myanmar, at 22% and 21%, respectively.

35% of respondents currently invest in Myanmar or planning or considering doing so in the future. In Cambodia, 31% of respondents are currently investing or planning to invest, making it the country with the highest interest.

Not Sure Do not export and no plans to export

Considering Exporting Planning to Export Currently Exporting

Which one of the following best describes your export activity with Myanmar?


Not Sure Do not invest and currently no plans to invest

Considering investing Planning to invest Currently investing

Investment activity with Myanmar


10

LOCAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENTExcluding respondents from Singapore, corruption and laws and regulations continue to be sources of dissatisfaction for respondents, similar to findings in 2011, 2010, and 2009. In fact, corruption was the highest source of dissatisfaction for all countries except Singapore and Malaysia.

Sentiment towards the U.S. remains highly positive across the ASEAN region and is a major strength in every country, with satisfaction above 50%.

Respondents across the region are also satisfied with personal security in all the countries with the exception of Malaysia, in which responses were mixed.

STRENGTHS AND CHALLENGES

Factors Regional Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia

Infrastructure 57% 90% 40% 94% 51% 57% 74% 44%

Availability of raw materials 52%

Availability of low cost labor 73% 40% 55% 71% 69%

Availability of trained personnel/efficient manpower

50% 78% 61% 44% 50%

Office lease costs 72% 60% 48% 56% 58% 56%

Housing cost 44% 77% 51% 55%

Laws and regulations 55% 43% 86% 56% 59% 61% 44%

Corruption (or lack of) 46% 48% 73% 88% 64% 77% 87% 81%

Local protectionism(or lack of)

71%

Tax Structure 55% 83% 47%

Personal security 74% 58% 96% 69% 72% 52% 56%

Stable government and political system

64% 62% 53% 94% 60% 62% 52% 75%

New business incentives by government

62%

Ease of moving products through customs

66% 65% 52%

Free movement of goods within the region

66% 62% 56%

Sentiment towards the U.S. 70% 76% 83% 75% 56% 68% 58% 75%

Strength: 50% or greater satisfaction rate Concern: 40% or greater dissatisfaction

11

EXPAT ASSIGNMENT SATISFACTIONThe majority of respondents (51%) stated that their companies regularly receive requests from employees based in other locations to work in their response location. This is an increase from 39% in 2011 and 2010.

EXPATRIATE SATISFACTION

Does your company regularly receive requests from employees based in other locations to work in your response location?

“Yes” 2010 “Yes” 2011 “Yes” 2012


OVERALL WORKFORCE BY COUNTRYThe majority of respondents (60%) predict an increase in their companies’ ASEAN overall workforce. Only 4% expect a decrease, while 36% expect it to remain about the same. This data is comparable with 2011 data.

WORKFORCE EXPANSION

Decrease Same Increase

Do you expect your total number of employees in the response location to increase, decrease, or remain about the same in 2012?


12

EXPAT SATISFACTION IN RESPONSE LOCATIONSatisfaction rates remain high at 96%, a slight increase from the past two years.

REQUESTS FOR EXTENSION OF ASSIGNMENTSResults show that, in most countries, increasing numbers of expatriate employees attempt to extend their time in their response location within ASEAN. In 2012, Thailand was the only country in which fewer respondents stated that expatriate employees attempt to extend their time there.

Do your expatriate employees attempt to extend their time in your response location?

“Yes” 2010 “Yes” 2011 “Yes” 2012


Are your expatriate employees generally satisfied with their assignments in your response location?

“Yes” 2010 “Yes” 2011 “Yes” 2012


EXPATRIATE SATISFACTION

14

Outlook for Investment Opportunitiesin ASEAN

Profit Outlook 2012

Profit Outlook 2013

CAMBODIA

Target Countries for Business Expansion

Myanmar Cambodia Vietnam Laos

Major Strengths(% Satisfied)

Major Concerns(% Dissatisfied)

Stable government and political system (75%)

Corruption (81%)

Sentiment towards the U.S. (75%)

Availability of trained personnel/efficient manpower (50%)

Availability of low cost labor (69%)

Laws and Regulations (44%)

Personal security (56%) Infrastructure (44%)

Office lease costs (56%)

Free movement of goods within the region (56%)

BUSINESS OUTLOOK

ASEAN Economic Outlook:• All respondents maintain a positive or

very positive outlook for the ASEAN region as an investment opportunity for their companies.

Current Business Climate:• Percentage of respondents facing

significant financing constraints decreased from 28% in 2011 to 13% in 2012.

• The majority of respondents (73%) are not facing higher costs of borrowing in 2012.

Importance of ASEAN Markets in Global Business:• 69% of respondents reported that

ASEAN markets have increased in importance to their companies in the past two years.

• Most respondents (75%) expect ASEAN importance to continue to increase in the next two years.

Business Direction and Movement in ASEAN:• 75% of respondents plan to expand their

companies’ business in ASEAN.

Profit Outlook:• 88% expect a profit increase in 2012.• 88% expect a profit increase in 2013.

Workforce Expansion:• 69% expect a workforce increase in 2012.• 27% expect an increase of 5 to 10%.• 27% expect an increase of 15 to 20%.

15

BUSINESS OUTLOOK

ASEAN Economic Outlook:• All respondents in Indonesia indicated

a positive or very positive outlook for the ASEAN region as an investment opportunity for their companies.

Current Business Climate:• Respondents facing significant financing

constraints decreased from 22% in 2011 to 13% in 2012.

• The large majority of respondents (74%) are not facing higher costs of borrowing in 2012.



• Most respondents (84%) also expect ASEAN importance to increase in the next two years.

Business Direction and Movement in ASEAN:• 81% of respondents plan to expand their

companies in ASEAN.


Workforce Expansion:• 58% expect a workforce increase in 2012.• 28% expect an increase of 20 to 50%.



Profit Outlook 2012

Profit Outlook 2013

INDONESIA

Vietnam Indonesia Myanmar Singapore




Corruption (87%)

Office lease costs (58%) Infrastructure (74%)

Sentiment towards U.S. (58%)

Local protectionism (71%)

Housing costs (55%) Laws and Regulations (61%)

Ease of moving products through customs (52%)

16

BUSINESS OUTLOOK

ASEAN Economic Outlook:• 94% of respondents maintain a positive

or very positive outlook for the ASEAN region as an investment opportunity for their companies.



• There has been a decrease in those facing higher costs of borrowing, from 37% in 2011 to 13% in 2012.

Importance of ASEAN Markets in Global Business:• 53% of respondents report that ASEAN

markets have increased in importance to their companies in the past two years.

• The majority of respondents (60%) expect ASEAN importance to increase in the next two years.

Business Direction and Movement in ASEAN:• 70% of respondents’ companies plan to

expand in ASEAN, and none expect to contract.


Workforce Expansion:• 50% expect a workforce increase in 2012.• 40% expect an increase of 5-10%.



Profit Outlook 2012

Profit Outlook 2013

MALAYSIA

Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Philippines



Infrastructure (90%) Corruption (48%)

Sentiment towards U.S. (76%)

Personal security (38%)

Office Lease Costs (72%)

Housing costs (31%)

Free movement of goods within the region (66%)

Ease of moving your products through customs (66%)


17

BUSINESS OUTLOOK





• Most respondents (80%) are not facing higher costs of borrowing in 2012.



• The majority of respondents (58%) expect ASEAN importance to increase in the next two years.


expand in ASEAN.


Workforce Expansion:• 75% expect a workforce increase in 2012.• 30% expect an increase of 20 to 50%. Major Strengths

(% Satisfied)Major Concerns(% Dissatisfied)


Corruption (73%)

Availability of trained personnel/efficient manpower (78%)




Office lease costs (60%) Infrastructure (40%)



Profit Outlook 2012

Profit Outlook 2013

PHILIPPINES

Philippines Vietnam Singapore IndonesiaThailand Myanmar

18

BUSINESS OUTLOOK




constraints rose slightly from 14% in 2011 to 17% in 2012.

• Most of respondents (75%) are not facing higher costs of borrowing.



• Most respondents (69%) expect ASEAN importance to increase in the next two years.

Business Direction and Movement in ASEAN:• 81% of respondents’ companies expect

to expand in ASEAN.


Workforce Expansion:• 58% expect a workforce increase in 2012.• 33% expect an increase of 5 to 10%.• 22% expect an increase of 10 to 15%.


SINGAPORE

Indonesia MyanmarVietnam Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia


Profit Outlook 2012

Profit Outlook 2013



Personal Security (96%) Housing Costs (77%)

Infrastructure (94%) Office Lease Costs (48%)

Stable Government & Political System (94%)

Availability of Low Cost Labor (40%)

Corruption (88%)


Tax Structure (83%)

Sentiment Towards the U.S. (75%)

Ease of Moving Products through Customs (65%)

New Business Incentives Offered by Government (62%)

Free Movement of Goods within the Region (62%)

19

BUSINESS OUTLOOK

ASEAN Economic Outlook:• 85% of respondents indicated a positive




• The percentage of those facing higher costs of borrowing decreased significantly from 34% in 2012 to 11% in 2012.



• A majority of respondents (64%) expect ASEAN importance to increase in the next two years.

Business Direction and Movement in ASEAN:• 65% of respondents’ companies expect

to expand in ASEAN.





Profit Outlook 2012

Profit Outlook 2013

THAILAND

SingaporeVietnam Thailand Myanmar Indonesia



Personal security (69%) Corruption (64%)

Office lease costs (56%) Stable government and political system (60%)


Laws and regulations (56%)

Housing costs (55%) Tax structure (47%)

Infrastructure (51%)

20

BUSINESS OUTLOOK




constraints doubled from 19% in 2011 to 39% in 2012.

• A majority of respondents (62%) do not face higher costs of borrowing.



• Most respondents (76%) expect ASEAN importance to increase in the next two years.


expand in ASEAN.





VIETNAM

Laos Malaysia Brunei Philippines

Profit Outlook 2012

Profit Outlook 2013

75%

5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%

CambodiaVietnam Myanmar Thailand Singapore



Personal security (78%) Corruption (77%)




Infrastructure (57%)



21

SURVEY METHODOLOGY

Sample Size A list of AmCham members from U.S. companies with e-mail contacts was provided by each AmCham:• Cambodia: List of 66 members, response rate was 24% (16)• Indonesia: List of 130 members, response rate was 24% (31)• Malaysia: List of 224 members, response rate was 13% (30)• Philippines: List of 238 members, response rate was 17% (40)• Singapore: List of 1,103 members, response rate was 12% (127)• Thailand: List of 238 members, response rate was 19% (45)• Vietnam: List of 367 members, response rate was 18% (67)

Overall: List of 2,366 members, response rate was 15% (356)

Data Collection Method Web-based, self-administered survey. No enforcement on participation.

Data Collection Period June 15, 2012 to July 3, 2012

*Throughout the report, percentages on graphs may not add to 100% due to respondents selecting multiple answers, respondents selecting “not sure,” or incomplete entries in the data set.

Note 1: For the first time in 2012, multiple senior members of each U.S. company were asked to complete the survey.

Note 2: There is only 2010-2012 data available for Cambodia.

PROFILE OF RESPONDENTS

• In the 2012 ASEAN Business Outlook Survey, the largest represented country is Singapore, whose respondents consist of 36% of the total, followed by Vietnam, whose respondents make up 19% of the total sample. Cambodia is the least represented, making up 5% of the total population of respondents.

• 59% of respondents are responsible for more than one country in the region and the largest portion of respondents’ primary activity is in the services sector (53%). 29% of respondents work in the manufacturing sector.

• The largest portion of respondents represent companies that have 50 to less than 500 employees in the region.

Refer to the next page for more information.

22

Country Region Thailand Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Cambodia

COUNTRY OF RESPONSIBILITY

Only ONE country 41% 40% 12% 37% 73% 63% 58% 81%

Multiple countries 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41%

PRIMARY ACTIVITIES

Service 53% 45% 68% 28% 14% 69% 39% 56%

Manufacturing 29% 34% 21% 55% 46% 12% 30% 19%

Other 19% 18% 17% 17% 16% 23% 26% 25%

SIZE OF WORKFORCE (NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES)

Below 50 26% 36% 32% 17% 20% 25% 16% 19%

50 to < 500 45% 36% 40% 47% 54% 45% 58% 56%

500 to <1,000 8% 9% 6% 7% 12% 13% 10% 6%

1000 to <1,500 5% 2% 4% 7% 3% 5% 7% 13%

1500 to <2,000 1% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 0% 0%

2000 or above 13% 16% 15% 20% 9% 10% 7% 6%

2012 TURNOVER IN RESPONSE COUNTRY (US$)

Below $1 million 10% 11% 9% 7% 15% 10% 3% 19%

$1 - <$49 million 49% 55% 44% 33% 52% 68% 45% 50%

$50 - <$99 million 10% 5% 10% 20% 9% 5% 10% 19%

$100 - <$499 million 14% 18% 13% 17% 12% 10% 19% 13%

$500 - <$999 million 5% 2% 5% 13% 3% 0% 7% 0%

$1 billion or above 5% 7% 6% 3% 2% 0% 10% 0%

PERCENTAGE OF GLOBAL TURNOVER REPRESENTED IN RESPONSE LOCATION

Less than 5% 66% 75% 68% 70% 65% 62% 68% 38%

5% - <25% 19% 11% 22% 10% 25% 13% 19% 13%

25% - <50% 5% 0% 2% 17% 5% 10% 3% 6%

50% - <75% 1% 5% 0% 0% 2% 3% 0% 0%

75% - <100% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 5% 3% 6%

100% 6% 7% 6% 0% 2% 8% 7% 38%

PROFILE OF RESPONDENTS

23

This report was compiled and published by The American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

• Editor-In-Chief: Liyana Othman, Head of Communications & Corporate Relations, AmCham Singapore

• Editors: Anne Marie Brooks, Head of Regional and Public Affairs, AmCham Singapore John Goyer, Senior Director, Southeast Asia, U.S. Chamber of Commerce Brandt Williams, Government Relations Executive, AmCham Singapore Alex Stuart, Communications Executive, AmCham Singapore

• Research and Analysis: Bill Dalbec, Senior Director, APCO Insight Hannah Fornero, Government Relations Intern, AmCham Singapore Georgiy Lomsadze, Government Relations Intern, AmCham Singapore

We would like to thank the following Executive Directors of the following AmChams in the region for their expertise and support:

• Jim Swander, The American Cambodian Business Council

• Sarah Howe, The American Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia

• Tim Garland, The American Malaysian Chamber of Commerce

• Rob Sears, The American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines

• Judy Benn, The American Chamber of Commerce in Thailand

• Adam Sitkoff, The American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (Hanoi)

• Herb Cochran, The American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh City)

We would also like to thank James Waller of Nathan Associates for his advice and guidance. For more information on the survey, visit www.amcham.org.sg/aseanoutlook.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

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