anz highlights from 2013 mobile vni - speaker, writer...

© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 1 © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Dr. Robert Pepper Vice President Global Technology Policy 6 March 2013

ANZ Highlights from Cisco 2013 Mobile VNI Forecast and 2012 Cisco Global Cloud Index

© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership

Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017

Global Mobile Speed Data

Global Forecast Data


Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers

More Mobile Users

Faster Mobile Speeds

More Mobile Connections

More Mobile Video



0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth

0.056 EB

0.013 EB

Australia Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Australia Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 6X from 2012 to 2017

0.075 EB

0.04 EB

0.028 EB

0.019 EB

43% CAGR 2012–2017



0.000

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.010

0.012

0.014

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth

0.009 EB

0.001 EB

New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 8X from 2012 to 2017

0.011 EB

0.007 EB

0.004 EB

0.003 EB

50% CAGR 2012–2017



42.2

32.7

43.1

33.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

IP Traffic in 2012 Internet & Mobile Traffic in 2012

Exab

yte

s p

er

mo

nth

Projected in 2009

Actual

VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth



Top Trends


VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 5 Mobile Networking Trends

Device Diversification

Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic

Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks

The (Mobile) Internet of Things

Mobile Video and Cloud readiness


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2

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6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bil

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ns

of

Devic

es

Other Portable Devices (.9%)

Tablets (2.3%)

Laptops (2.6%)

M2M (16.5%)

Smartphones (27.4%)

Non-Smartphones (50.3%)

Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Gain 11 Points to Reach 27% Share


8% CAGR 2012–2017

Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth


Tablets (1.3%)

Laptops (2.2%)

M2M (12.6%)

Smartphones (25.9%)


APAC Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 26% Share


9% CAGR 2012–2017



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mil

lio

ns

of

Devic

es


Tablets (5.0%)

Laptops (13.0%)

M2M (28.0%)

Smartphones (51.3%)


Australia Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 51% Share


8% CAGR 2012–2017



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mil

lio

ns

of

Devic

es


Tablets (3.1%)

Laptops (6.6%)

M2M (29.1%)

Smartphones (53.5%)


New Zealand Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 54% Share


8% CAGR 2012–2017



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mil

lio

ns

of

Devic

es


Tablets (2.9%)

Laptops (9.6%)

M2M (30.8%)

Smartphones (55.1%)


Korea Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 55% Share


6% CAGR 2012–2017



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50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mil

lio

ns

of

Devic

es


Tablets (2.9%)

Laptops (5.2%)

M2M (31.4%)

Smartphones (56.8%)


Japan Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 57% Share


9% CAGR 2012–2017



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0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bil

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of

Devic

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Tablets (2.0%)

Laptops (1.9%)

M2M (14.7%)

Smartphones (30.5%)


China Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 31% Share


9% CAGR 2012–2017



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bil

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of

Devic

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Tablets (.4%)

Laptops (.9%)

M2M (8.6%)

Smartphones (18.1%)


India Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 18% Share


10% CAGR 2012–2017



Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type

Non-Smartphone

2017 2012

6.8 31

MBs per Month MBs per Month

M2M 64 330

Smartphone 342 2,660

4G Smartphone 1,302 5,114

Tablet 820 5,387

Laptop 2,503 5,731



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12

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

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Other Portable Devices (2.2%)

M2M (4.7%)

Home Gateways (4.8%)


Tablets (10.0%)

Laptops and Netbooks (24.2%)

Smartphones (48.3%)

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

(Figures in

legend refer to

traffic share in

2016.)

2012 FORECAST


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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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M2M (5.1%)

Tablets (11.7%)

Laptops (14.0%)

Smartphones (67.5%)

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device In 2013, Smartphone Traffic Surpass Mobile Laptop Traffic




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0.07

0.08

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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Non-Smartphones (.1%)

M2M (8.3%)

Tablets (13.7%)

Laptops (39.5%)

Smartphones (38.3%)

Australia Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device




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0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.010

0.012

0.014

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

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Non-Smartphones (.4%)

M2M (7.5%)

Tablets (10.4%)

Laptops (20.8%)

Smartphones (60.8%)

New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device




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7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bil

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evic

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r C

on

necti

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s 4G

3G2G

Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

57%

76%

23%

1%

33%

10%



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35

40

45

50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Millio

ns o

f D

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on

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s 4G

3G2G

Australia Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

77%

77%

20%

1% 5%

19%



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8

9

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Millio

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s 4G

3G2G

New Zealand Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

81%

59%

41%

0% 7%

11%



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10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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2-2.5G

3-3.5G

4G

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G 4G Will Be 10% of Connections and 45% of Traffic in 2017

14%

45%

51%

10%

76%

4%



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0.08

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

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2-2.5G

3-3.5G

4G

Australia Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G 4G Will Be 19% of Connections and 40% of Traffic in 2017

40%

60%


89%

9%


0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

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2-2.5G

3-3.5G

4G

New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G 4G Will Be 11% of Connections and 29% of Traffic in 2017

29%

71%


7%

93%

1%


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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload 22% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2016 11% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2011

22%

78%


2012

FORECAST


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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload 46% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 33% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012

46%

54%



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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

Australia Mobile Data Traffic Offload 12% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2016 5% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2011

12%

88%


2012

FORECAST


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0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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Australia Mobile Data Traffic Offload 26% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 15% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012

26%

64%



0.0

1.0

2.0

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5.0

6.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

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US Mobile Data Traffic Offload 66% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 47% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012

66%

34%



By 2017, there will be 1.4 mobile connections (devices and M2M) for every member of the world’s population. North America has the most mobile connections per capita (2.2). The Middle East & Africa has the least (1.1).



39

56

20 22

0

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mil

lio

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Devices

Users

Australia Mobile Users and Devices Users Grow at 2% CAGR, Devices Grow at 8% CAGR 2.2 mobile connections/person








Mobile Video and Cloud Readiness


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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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Mobile File Sharing (5.5%)

Mobile M2M (8.3%)

Mobile Web/Data (22.9%)

Mobile Video (63.3%)

43% CAGR 2012–2017

Australia Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Reach 63 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017

Figures (n) refer to 2017

traffic share



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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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Mobile File Sharing (3.8%)

Mobile M2M (7.5%)

Mobile Web/Data (25.5%)

Mobile Video (63.1%)

50% CAGR 2012–2017

New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Reach 63 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017

Figures (n) refer to 2017

traffic share



74% 76% 78% 80% 82% 84%

26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mobile Cloud Traffic Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic

Global Mobile Cloud Traffic Cloud Accounted for 74% of Mobile Data Traffic in 2012 Cloud Will Account for 84% of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017



Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Individual Apps

Basic Cloud Apps

Network Requirements:

Download Speed: Up to 750 kbps

Upload Speed: Up to 250 kbps

Latency: Above 160 ms

Intermediate Cloud Apps


Download Speed: 751–2,500 kbps

Upload Speed: 251–1,000 kbps

Latency: 159 - 100 ms

Advanced Cloud Apps


Download Speed: Higher than 2,500 kbps

Upload Speed:

Higher than 1,000 kbps

Latency: Less than 100 ms

• Text communications (email, instant messaging)

• Web browsing

• File sharing (low-res video)

• Web conferencing

• Social networking (basic text only)

• Stream basic video/ music

• File sharing (high-res video)

• IP Telephony

• ERP / CRM

• Basic gaming (single player)

• Basic video chat (low-res video)

• IP audio conferencing

• Basic video conferencing (low-res video)

• Advanced social networking (multimedia/interactivity)

• HD video streaming

• HD Industrial design collaboration

• Advanced gaming (multi player)

• Advanced video chat (high-res video)

• Advanced file sharing (super high-res video)

• HD audio conferencing

• HD video conferencing (high-res video)

• Stream super HD video


Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Concurrent Apps

Basic Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket


Download Speed: ~1900 kbps

Upload Speed: ~600 kbps

Latency: Above 160 ms

Intermediate Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket


Download Speed: ~7,000 kbps

Upload Speed: ~2,600 kbps

Latency: 159 - 100 ms

Advanced Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket


Download Speed: ~21,000 kbps

Upload Speed:

~9,000 kbps

Latency: Less than 100 ms

• Text communications (email, instant messaging)

• Web browsing

• File sharing (low-res video)

• Web conferencing

• Social networking (basic text only)

• Stream basic video/ music

• File sharing (high-res video)

• IP Telephony

• ERP / CRM

• Basic gaming (single player)

• Basic video chat (low-res video)

• IP audio conferencing

• Basic video conferencing (low-res video)

• Advanced social networking (multimedia/interactivity)

• HD video streaming

• HD Industrial design collaboration

• Advanced gaming (multi player)

• Advanced video chat (high-res video)

• Advanced file sharing (super high-res video)

• HD audio conferencing

• HD video conferencing (high-res video)

• Stream super HD video


Fixed Speeds + Latency: Australia

Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

eed

(kb

ps)

Average Download Speed (kbps)

Australia

Ave download: 7.9mbps

Ave upload: 1.2mbps

Ave latency: 54ms


Fixed Speeds + Latency: New Zealand


-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

eed

(kb

ps)


New Zealand


Ave upload: 1.3mbps

Ave latency: 65ms


Mobile Speeds + Latency: Australia


0

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600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

eed

(kb

ps)


Australia


Ave upload: 1.0mbps

Ave latency: 161ms


Mobile Speeds + Latency: APAC Countries


Singapore

Hong Kong

Japan

Australia Korea

Thailand

Taiwan

Malaysia Philippines

India

Indonesia

China

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Ave

rage

Up

load

Sp

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(kb

ps)


100ms - 159ms Above 160ms


Summary/Implications


Summary and Implications

More users, each using more bandwidth

Each user will have more/more powerful devices

Accelerated smartphone adoption

Video and cloud driving demand and consumption

4G will dramatically increase data consumption

Advanced Cloud Apps Required Advanced Networks

Off-load increasingly important—small cell complement

Need more Spectrum – Licensed and Unlicensed

Need fibre for backhaul, middle mile and aggregation in access

Networks becoming heterogeneous; need to be “fit for purpose”


Thank you.

anz highlights from 2013 mobile vni - speaker, writer...

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