announcements… the end of the quarter is this friday ▫check your grades online ▫turn in any...
TRANSCRIPT
Announcements…•The end of the quarter is this Friday
▫Check your grades online▫Turn in any missing assignments
•Quiz Friday--Voting▫Expect a study guide on Wednesday▫If you are not going to be here on Friday—
you will need to make up the quiz when you come back from spring break
▫This quiz may or may not be included on the end-of-quarter grades. Assume that it will be.
Poll
•Survey of public▫a questioning of the population or of a
representative sample to tally opinions or gather other information
Issue Poll
•Survey and measurement of the public on a particular issue
Favorability Polls
•Measuring the quality or degree of being viewed favorably or positively
Margin of Error
•Statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results▫The larger the margin of error, the less
faith one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures
Public OpinionHow is it formed?
Public opinion
•Attitudes held by a significant number of people on matters of government and politics▫Public opinions▫Opinions of different publics
Multiple Publics
•Not many issues capture the attention of all—or even nearly all—Americans
Multiple Publics
•Public opinion includes only those views that relate to public affairs▫Politics▫Public issues▫Making of public policies
Public Opinion
•Must involve something of general concern and of interest to a significant portion of the people as a whole
Expression
•Oral▫Town Hall Meetings on health care reform
Expression
•Written
Expression
•Protest demonstration
Expression
•Billboard
Expression
•Vote for or against a candidate
Influences/political socialization
▫ Family Children first see the world from the family’s eyes
▫Fundamental attitudes Authority and rules of behavior Property Neighbors People of other races/religions
▫ Education Teach children the values of the American political
system▫ Age, race, income, occupation, residence, group
affiliations, etc.▫ Mass media▫ Peer groups▫ Opinion leaders▫ Historic events
Measuring Public Opinion
In general:
•Voting•Lobbying•Books•Pamphlets•Magazines/newspapers•Editorial comments•Paid advertisements•Letters to editors, public officials
•Means don’t tell much about:▫Size of the group▫How strong the opinion is
Elections
•Vote for candidates•Not always accurate measures of public
opinion▫Why are people voting?▫Agreeing with every plank▫Vague positions
Interest Groups
•Private organizations▫Members share certain views▫Work to shape the making and the content
of public policy•How many people does an interest group
represent? How strong are the positions?
Media
•“Mirrors” and “molders” of public opinion•Editorials, syndicated columns, news
magazines, TV commercials…•Often reflect only the view of the vocal
minority
Personal Contacts
•Public officials use to keep in touch with large numbers of people▫Job is to “read” the public’s mind
•Some are quite accurate•Others are not
▫Only find what they want to find
Polls: The Best Measure
•Collect information by asking people questions
•Accurate polls are based in scientific polling techniques
Straw Votes
•Ask a large number of people the same question
•Highly unreliable▫Nothing in the process ensures that those
who respond will represent a reasonable accurate cross section of a total population
▫Quantity rather than quality
Polling: A Scientific Process
•Define the universe▫-who makes up the population?
•Construct a sample▫Poll everyone in a small group▫Random sample
Law of probability▫Quota sample
Deliberately constructed to reflect population Less reliable
Study Guide: Chapters to review• Political Parties and Campaigns
▫ Ms. Berndt’s assignments• History of Voting
▫ 6.1, 6.3• Voter Qualifications
▫ Basically—who can vote?▫ How has this changed?
• Voter Behavior and Apathy; How people vote▫ 6.4
• PSAs: basic info from PPT• Voter disenfranchisement/suffrage
▫ 6.3, suffrage worksheet• Elections: basic ideas that we have talked about in class• Electoral College
▫ 13.5
Preparing Valid Questions
•Wording▫Try not to use “loaded” terms▫Try not to shape answers
Interviewing
•Face-to-face or telephone/mail•Same techniques must be used •Pollster’s appearance•Wording
Emotional reactions “ought to” answer
Analyze and Report Findings
•Computers and other technologies
Evaluating Polls
•Difficult to measure▫Intensity▫Stability▫Relevance
•Bandwagon effect
Limits
•Major—but not only—influence•U.S. constitutional government
▫Does not give free, unrestricted power to public opinion, or even majority opinion
▫Separation of powers, checks and balances Protect minority interests
•Not elections