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Announcements…•The end of the quarter is this Friday
▫Check your grades online▫Turn in any missing assignments
•Quiz Friday--Voting▫Expect a study guide on Wednesday▫If you are not going to be here on Friday—
you will need to make up the quiz when you come back from spring break
▫This quiz may or may not be included on the end-of-quarter grades. Assume that it will be.
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Poll
•Survey of public▫a questioning of the population or of a
representative sample to tally opinions or gather other information
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Issue Poll
•Survey and measurement of the public on a particular issue
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Favorability Polls
•Measuring the quality or degree of being viewed favorably or positively
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Margin of Error
•Statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results▫The larger the margin of error, the less
faith one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures
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Public OpinionHow is it formed?
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Public opinion
•Attitudes held by a significant number of people on matters of government and politics▫Public opinions▫Opinions of different publics
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Multiple Publics
•Not many issues capture the attention of all—or even nearly all—Americans
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Multiple Publics
•Public opinion includes only those views that relate to public affairs▫Politics▫Public issues▫Making of public policies
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Public Opinion
•Must involve something of general concern and of interest to a significant portion of the people as a whole
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Expression
•Oral▫Town Hall Meetings on health care reform
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Expression
•Written
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Expression
•Protest demonstration
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Expression
•Billboard
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Expression
•Vote for or against a candidate
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Influences/political socialization
▫ Family Children first see the world from the family’s eyes
▫Fundamental attitudes Authority and rules of behavior Property Neighbors People of other races/religions
▫ Education Teach children the values of the American political
system▫ Age, race, income, occupation, residence, group
affiliations, etc.▫ Mass media▫ Peer groups▫ Opinion leaders▫ Historic events
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Measuring Public Opinion
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In general:
•Voting•Lobbying•Books•Pamphlets•Magazines/newspapers•Editorial comments•Paid advertisements•Letters to editors, public officials
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•Means don’t tell much about:▫Size of the group▫How strong the opinion is
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Elections
•Vote for candidates•Not always accurate measures of public
opinion▫Why are people voting?▫Agreeing with every plank▫Vague positions
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Interest Groups
•Private organizations▫Members share certain views▫Work to shape the making and the content
of public policy•How many people does an interest group
represent? How strong are the positions?
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Media
•“Mirrors” and “molders” of public opinion•Editorials, syndicated columns, news
magazines, TV commercials…•Often reflect only the view of the vocal
minority
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Personal Contacts
•Public officials use to keep in touch with large numbers of people▫Job is to “read” the public’s mind
•Some are quite accurate•Others are not
▫Only find what they want to find
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Polls: The Best Measure
•Collect information by asking people questions
•Accurate polls are based in scientific polling techniques
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Straw Votes
•Ask a large number of people the same question
•Highly unreliable▫Nothing in the process ensures that those
who respond will represent a reasonable accurate cross section of a total population
▫Quantity rather than quality
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Polling: A Scientific Process
•Define the universe▫-who makes up the population?
•Construct a sample▫Poll everyone in a small group▫Random sample
Law of probability▫Quota sample
Deliberately constructed to reflect population Less reliable
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Study Guide: Chapters to review• Political Parties and Campaigns
▫ Ms. Berndt’s assignments• History of Voting
▫ 6.1, 6.3• Voter Qualifications
▫ Basically—who can vote?▫ How has this changed?
• Voter Behavior and Apathy; How people vote▫ 6.4
• PSAs: basic info from PPT• Voter disenfranchisement/suffrage
▫ 6.3, suffrage worksheet• Elections: basic ideas that we have talked about in class• Electoral College
▫ 13.5
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Preparing Valid Questions
•Wording▫Try not to use “loaded” terms▫Try not to shape answers
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Interviewing
•Face-to-face or telephone/mail•Same techniques must be used •Pollster’s appearance•Wording
Emotional reactions “ought to” answer
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Analyze and Report Findings
•Computers and other technologies
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Evaluating Polls
•Difficult to measure▫Intensity▫Stability▫Relevance
•Bandwagon effect
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Limits
•Major—but not only—influence•U.S. constitutional government
▫Does not give free, unrestricted power to public opinion, or even majority opinion
▫Separation of powers, checks and balances Protect minority interests
•Not elections