project to intercompare regional climate simulations global environmental changes: technology and...

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Global Environmental Changes: Technology and the Future of Planet Earth

Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCMProfessor of Atmospheric Science

Professor of Agricultural Meteorology

Iowa State University

Ames, Iowa 50011

gstakle@iastate.edu

Lions Club, 27 Julyc 2006

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

2006

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

2006

2040

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

Stabilization at 550 ppm

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

“Business as Usual”(fossil intensive)

2100

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration

330

335

340

345

350

355

360

365

370

375

380

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Co

nce

ntr

ati

on

(p

art

s p

er

mil

lio

n)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

An

nu

al

Incre

ase

(p

art

s p

er

mil

lio

n)

CO2 Conc

Ann Increase

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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

“Nobody believes that the US economy can still be petroleum based in 2050, yet there is no national plan”

Mark Kushner, Dean

Iowa State University College of Engineering

President’s Council Meeting

13 January 2006

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

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Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Associated Climate Changes

Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.

Hemisphere Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15% Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges Snow cover decreased by 10% Earlier flowering dates Coral reef bleaching

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)

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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

Sea-surface temperature

V V

Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

V

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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

Sea-surface temperature

V V

Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

V

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

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Tropical Weather

Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_vs_sea_surface_height.JPG

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

Adaptation Necessary

Mitigation Possible

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

40% Probability

5% Probability

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

Source:

Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

For the Midwest Warming will be greater for winter than summer Warming will be greater at night than during the

day A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples

the probability of a heat wave Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer

now than in 1950) More precipitation Likely more soil moisture in summer More rain will come in intense rainfall events Higher stream flow, more flooding

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Climate Surprises

Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)

Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level

Kennedy SpaceCenter

Miami

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

What Constitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with

the Climate System”?

James Hansen, Director of the NASA GoddardInstitute for Space Studies:

* Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m2

* 1 oC additional rise in global mean temperature

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Mt. Pinatubo (1991)

El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Mt. Pinatubo (1991)

El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963

Imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSHansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level

Kennedy SpaceCenter

Miami

Impact of a 1-mrise in sea levelon low-lying areas

Source:

Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

Projected sea-level rise In 21st century:0.5 to 1.0 m

Climate Model Resolution

global

regional (land)

regional (water)

Only every second RCM grid point is shown in eachdirection

Application of Climate Change Scenarios

Space-heating/power demands

Crop yields Soil carbon levels Soil erosion Bird migration patterns Dairy cow milk production Heat stress in beef cattle Snowpack/reservoir

performance

Crop pathogens Habitat/climate for

invasive species Soil or aquatic

ecosystems Hardiness zones for trees Freshwater availability Lake-level changes Recreation changes

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Summary Climate change is real and we need to be doing something

about it to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”

Mitigation will have no effect for 50 years, so we need to develop adaptation strategies for the short term

The longer we wait, the fewer our options Regional patterns of warming will be complicated Climate surprises can’t be discounted We need dialog between scientists and the

private sector to develop both adaptation and mitigation strategies

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have

seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course:

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

Contact me directly:

gstakle@iastate.edu