project to intercompare regional climate simulations climate change: use of climate science in...
TRANSCRIPT
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Climate Change: Use of Climate Science in Decision-making
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCMProfessor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Faculty Director, University Honors Program
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected] Conference
Iowa State Extension ServiceAmes
10 October 2007
Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Radiative forcing Simulations of global climate and future climate
change Four components for addressing climate change Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest: adaptation
strategy Climate information and forecasts for use in
extension
Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course or the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Natural cycles
Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
IPCC Third Assessment Report
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
2007
380 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
2050
550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
?
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963
At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level
Kennedy SpaceCenter
Miami
Impact of a 1-mrise in sea levelon low-lying areas
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).
Projected sea-level rise In 21st century:0.5 to 1.0 m
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSHansen, Scientific American, March 2004
ClimateCold Warm
Ice Volume
0
AntarcticaGreenland
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
An exhibition of old and new photographs at the Swiss Alpine Museum in Bern documents the gradual disappearance of Switzerland's glaciers.The Rhone glacier with the Hotel Belvedere in the foreground and the Furka pass, Canton Valais circa 1906 and 2003(Pictures: Gesellschaft fur okologische Forschung, Munich)
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
Highly Likely Not Natural
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Reduced ConsumptionEnergy intensive
Energy conserving
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Energy intensive
Energy conservingReduced Consumption
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Reduced ConsumptionEnergy intensive
Energy conserving
AdaptationNecessary
MitigationPossible
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Four-Component Approach for Addressing Climate Change
Mitigation policies: 2050-2100– Example: reduction in GHG emissions
Adaptation (long-term): 2015-2050– Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive
economic advantage Adaptation (short-term): 2008-2015
– Example: redefining climate “normals” when needed and scientifically justified
Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”: 2007-2100– Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods,
combination of both; drought and wildfire
EST personal view
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
If a meteorological variable began departing from its long-term background near or after 1970 it may be related to the radiation imbalance and thereby has a better chance than not of continuing its new trend over the next 5-10 years.
Climate Adaptation(Short-Term)
EST personal view
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) Longer frost-free period (high) Higher average winter temperatures (high) Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) More (~10%) precipitation (medium) More variability of summer precipitation (high)
– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)– Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Reasons Crop Yields Might Increase in the Midwest
Longer growing season Warmer spring soil temperatures Modest or no increase in summer daily
maximum temperatures Increase in nighttime temperatures Reduced risk of late frost in spring or early
frost in fall More freeze-thaw cycles that will
recharge soil moisture in winter
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Reasons Crop Yields Might Increase in the Midwest
More precipitation More soil moisture Higher dew-point temperatures reduces
moisture stress Higher CO2 increased carbon
uptake by crops Higher CO2 increases the
water-use efficiency of crops
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Reasons Crop Yields Might Decrease in the Midwest
More precipitation extremes– More rain events bring heavy rain– More droughts– More floods
More over-wintering pests More pathogens due to higher humidity More vigorous weed growth
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, USA Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA
Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric ResearchPrincipal Investigator
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
NOAA’s currently funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments teams
Proposed new Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
Tin and Seager
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Midwest Consortium for Climate Change (MiCCA)
Mission
To translate NOAA seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts into decision-
making tools for agriculture and to disseminate these products through
the state extension services
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Summary
Climate change of the past 35 years is not consistent with natural variations over the last 400,000 years
Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed over half of the warming of the last 35 years
Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have little effect on global warming until the latter half of the 21st century
Adaptation strategies should be developed for the next 50 years
Recent trends and model projections should be used to develop adaptation strategies for the next 10 years
EST personal view
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see
my online Global Change course:http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
Contact me directly:[email protected]
Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website:http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/
Or just Google Eugene Takle