project to intercompare regional climate simulations global environmental changes: technology and...
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Global Environmental Changes: Technology and the Future of Planet Earth
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCMProfessor of Atmospheric Science
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
Lions Club, 27 Julyc 2006
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2006
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2006
2040
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
“Business as Usual”(fossil intensive)
2100
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration
330
335
340
345
350
355
360
365
370
375
380
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Co
nce
ntr
ati
on
(p
art
s p
er
mil
lio
n)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
An
nu
al
Incre
ase
(p
art
s p
er
mil
lio
n)
CO2 Conc
Ann Increase
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
“Nobody believes that the US economy can still be petroleum based in 2050, yet there is no national plan”
Mark Kushner, Dean
Iowa State University College of Engineering
President’s Council Meeting
13 January 2006
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
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Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Associated Climate Changes
Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.
Hemisphere Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15% Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges Snow cover decreased by 10% Earlier flowering dates Coral reef bleaching
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Sea-surface temperature
V V
Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
V
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Sea-surface temperature
V V
Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
V
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
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Tropical Weather
Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_vs_sea_surface_height.JPG
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Adaptation Necessary
Mitigation Possible
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
40% Probability
5% Probability
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).
For the Midwest Warming will be greater for winter than summer Warming will be greater at night than during the
day A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
the probability of a heat wave Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
now than in 1950) More precipitation Likely more soil moisture in summer More rain will come in intense rainfall events Higher stream flow, more flooding
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Climate Surprises
Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)
Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level
Kennedy SpaceCenter
Miami
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Constitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with
the Climate System”?
James Hansen, Director of the NASA GoddardInstitute for Space Studies:
* Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m2
* 1 oC additional rise in global mean temperature
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963
Imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSHansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level
Kennedy SpaceCenter
Miami
Impact of a 1-mrise in sea levelon low-lying areas
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).
Projected sea-level rise In 21st century:0.5 to 1.0 m
Climate Model Resolution
global
regional (land)
regional (water)
Only every second RCM grid point is shown in eachdirection
Application of Climate Change Scenarios
Space-heating/power demands
Crop yields Soil carbon levels Soil erosion Bird migration patterns Dairy cow milk production Heat stress in beef cattle Snowpack/reservoir
performance
Crop pathogens Habitat/climate for
invasive species Soil or aquatic
ecosystems Hardiness zones for trees Freshwater availability Lake-level changes Recreation changes
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Summary Climate change is real and we need to be doing something
about it to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”
Mitigation will have no effect for 50 years, so we need to develop adaptation strategies for the short term
The longer we wait, the fewer our options Regional patterns of warming will be complicated Climate surprises can’t be discounted We need dialog between scientists and the
private sector to develop both adaptation and mitigation strategies
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have
seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
Contact me directly: