predicting the success of occupy wall street
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Estimating the Occupy Wall Street Movements Chances of Success
Justin Wolf
Abstract
This report estimates the likelihood of a successful outcome for the Occupy Wall Street movement.
Doing so required determining what characteristics indicate a successful movement and then searching
for the presence of those indicators in the Occupy Wall Street movement. After an analysis of each
indicator, the indicators were given a score out of five. The mean score was then determined and given as
a percent. This methodology, while acknowledging a high degree of subjectivity, allows one to make a
more tangible prediction of the likelihood Occupy Wall Street succeeding and encourages others to
challenge and or support the results of the study with results of their own. The study suggests that the
Occupy Wall Street movement has a greater than fifty-percent chance of achieving success, while
acknowledges that further research is necessary because the Occupy Wall Street movement is still
ongoing and likely to change. These results and results of future studies on the OWS movement would be
highly useful to policy makers, the public in general, sociologists, businessmen, and the protesters
themselves because there is a power in telling people exactly how their actions impact the social and
economic systems of their community, state, and country.
Key words and terms: Occupy Wall Street, Indicator, Movement, success, prediction, potential
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Introduction
Five indicators of a movements success, explained and listed below, were used to analyze the Occupy
Wall Street Movement so as to estimate its chances of success. The Occupy Wall Street Movement is a
series of ongoing protests started by the Canadian magazine Adbusters that has extended beyond its
original location, Zuccoti Park in New York City, to become a national and international occupymovement. (Graeber) The demands and grievances of the protesters are numerous, but most agree that
something is wrong and that something needs to change. (Graeber) Throughout this paper Occupy Wall
Street will be shortened to OWS, and OWS will stand for the more general national occupy movement.
Louis Gottschalk published an article in The American Journal of Psychologycalled The Causes of
Revolution in 1944 that provides a useful framework for analyzing the potential of a movements
success based on its message, the hope for success amongst those demanding the change and the strength
or weakness of conservative groups resisting that change. For the purpose of this research it was useful to
breakdown Gottschalks points into five indicators of a movements success. (Please note that Gottschalk
did not call these the five indicators of a movements success, this is simply an alternative breakdown of
traits he observed in other important movements.)
The five Indicators of a movements success:
1. Public support2. A demand for change3. Provocation of those demanding change4. Leadership/organization5. Weakness/strength of conservative groups.
Indicators 1-4 four are self-explanatory, but indicator 5 requires some explanation. For indicator five, the
term does not mean conservative in the way we understand it todaywe equate it to the political right.
However, the term conservative is used more generally to refer to those who promote the status quo
politically and economically. In this sense the extreme libertarian wing and the socially conservative
wing of the Republican Party, though conservative by our definition, are, by Louis Gottschalks
definition, not entirely conservative as they promote tweaking or changing the current way our
government operates in intrinsic ways. Therefore, in order to understand who is conservative in this
country by this definition one must ask: who has both the power to resist and an interest in resisting a
demand for change?
Before continuing, it is necessary to justify the use of the five indicators of a movements success to
analyze the OWS movements chances for success. The American Revolution is a powerful demonstratorof the effectiveness of Gottschalks five indicators of a successful movement. (Please note that for the
purpose of this research the term movement is practically considered synonymous with terms like protest
and revolution.)
The American Revolution had a clear provocation of those demanding change. (McCullough) Their
demand for change, though it changed from a demand for equal rights as British Citizens to a cry for
independence, is evidenced by documents such as The Declaration of Independence. (McCullough) The
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In order to test the public support of Occupy Wall Street, polling data from different dates and sources
was collected and analyzed.
Testing for the remaining four indicators required a broad investigative strategy so as to account for
differences in opinion amongst the protesters and secondary sources. The strategy included first-hand
interviews and observations of protesters in Spokane, Washington, following the official Occupy Wall
Street Website and Twitter account, watching second-hand interviews of OWS protesters, and, finally,
annotating speeches given by OWS protesters and their guest speakers.
Once the data for each indicator is collected, it will then be rated on a scale of 0 to 5, with 0 being the
worst and 5 being the best. This approach is somewhat subjective, but the scores are based on the results
and a justification for each score will be provided. This way, a percent can represent the researchers
interpretation of data as a percent score. The percent score will represent the probability of success for
the OWS movement, along with the data provided for each indicator.
ResultsI. Results for Indicator 1
Evidence for the strength of indicator one was found by compiling polling data on public support for
OWS from a variety of sources.
Table 1 Comparison of surveys measuring support for OWS (from TPM)
Date Conducted Opposed OWS Support OWS Surveyor(s) % of Change in
support since lastsurvey conducted
10/31/2011 19% 36% CNN +17%10/24/2011 27% 43% CBS/NYT +16%
10/23/2011 35% 39% Pew +4%
10/16/2011 36% 35% USA
Today/Gallup
+7%
10/10/2011 31% 59% PPP (D) -1%
Averages 30% 42% NA NA
Score for Indicator 1: 3.5/5
Reason for Score:
According to this data the average degree of support for the ideas of the OWS movement is fourty-two
percent and the average degree of opposition to the OWS movement is thirty percent. Meanwhile, all the
surveyors showed a measurable increase in support from the last time those organizations conducted a
survey with the exception of the PPP (D) survey. Since OWS started in mid-September, the amount of
public support it has received in that short of time is currently a positive for OWS. (Graeber) However, it
should be noted that public support for anything can be a very fluid statistic.
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II. Results for Indicators Two and Three: demand for change and provocation of those demanding
change
Some signs used by the protesters are simply humorous and absurd, but many of them are highly effective
communicators of what actions and trends in American society provoked the demands for change being
made by the OWS protesters (see appendix A). One sign is particularly clear on what provoked the OWS
movement:
Its wrong to create a mortgage backed security filled with loans you know are going to fail so
that can sell it to a client who isnt aware that you sabotaged it by intentionally picking the
misleadingly rated loans most likely to be defaulted upon.
One could argue that knowingly sabotaged mortgaged backed securities filled with loans are what
ultimately provoked the OWS movement. After all, they are a large part of what caused the financialcrisis. (Mclean) However, these are not the only grievances expressed by the OWS protesters. The most
prominent grievances are that the poor and middle class are treated unfairly by the government in
comparison to their treatment of the top 1% of income earners in the country, that the media and
especially the Fox News Network is biased in their coverage of OWS, that the government is corrupt, and
that the financial bailouts following the financial crisis were unjust.
However, these reasons for the provocation of the OWS movement are not relevant without a demand for
change. And so, common demands for change include closing corporate tax loopholes, ending the wars,
stopping congressional bribery, raising taxes on the rich, creating jobs, fixing the economy, better
treatment for veterans, and better treatment of and opportunity for the poor. Again, all this has been
communicated by simple picket signs.
There are also numerous videos that have been posted to youtube.com expressing similar grievances and
demands for change. The OWS websites, Facebook, and Twitter pages are, similarly, express some of
these grievances and demands for change. Because the OWS movement is a conglomerate of groups who
do not entirely agree on what provoked the movement and what changes to demand; allowing evidence
from these OWS sites to hold too much power over a researchers ability to determine what provoked the
OWS protesters demands for change could be considered irresponsible. For example, there is a small
contingent of Ron Paul supporters at many OWS encampments across the country who have different
perspectives on what caused the financial crisis and what could be done to fix what they see are the
problems with the economic and social systems of the United States. The ideas of Ron Paul supporters,
amongst other people with minority perspectives, are not represented by the major OWS websites,
Facebook pages, or Twitter pages. (See appendix B)
Scores for Indicator Two: 2.5/5
Scores for Indicator Three: 2.75/5
Reason for Scores:
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The claims being made by protesters are mostly clear, but it is the lack of agreement amongst the
protesters that hurt their score. Indicator three can be considered a positive because, although the
protesters cannot always agree on what may have caused their problems, they still agree that these
problems exist, and therefore are united by their frustration.
Another thing not working for the protesters are that some signs make vague claims and express
themselves in ways that could end up hurting the amount of public support OWS maintains. For example,
claims made by protesters such as Shit is fucked up and bullshit and fuck trickling down they are just
pissing on us, could turn people away from a movement they would otherwise support.
III. Results for Indicator Four: Leadership/Organization
The organizational structure of OWS is based on forms of mass communication such as twitter, face
book, blogs, and websites (see appendix B). These digitized forms of communication can serve to help
the OWS movement via organizing protests and other events, capturing images and videos of the protests,
capturing videos of police brutality, and by communicating their messages to the public. However, they
can also be used against the OWS movement. In one case an OWS protester was photographed
defecating on a police car. With that said, there are far more images and videos that help the OWS cause;
like a video of, judging by appearance, some very wealthy men and women on Wall Street drinking
champagne on a balcony above protesters and several videos ofsome policemen pepper spraying on
protesters and shooting protesters with rubber bullets. (See Appendix C) The use of digital information
sharing tools by OWS shows the ability of the OWS movement to get favorable images and videos online
en mass, suggesting the presence of strong organization.
As for leadership, the Canadian magazineAdbusters took on an early leadership role in OWS and
continued playing a part in the OWS movement by informing protesters and other interested people about
the socioeconomic inequalities that they perceived were happening across the country and around the
world via occupywallstreet.org, occupywallst.org
The following image clearly demonstrates thatAdbusters started the OWS movement:
Figure 2 OWS
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SinceAdbusters began the movement many other smaller groups have formed satellite protests under the
OWS brand. For example there is an Occupy Moscow, Idaho and an Occupy Casper, Wyoming among
other smaller Occupy movements that operate semi-independently of the original OWS in Zuccoti Park in
New York City, New York. (See appendix B)
In addition, many of the Occupy gatherings have what is called a general assembly, where important
matters are discussed and decisions are made via show of hands. The general assembly is standard for
most Occupy gatherings but is important to note because it operates independently of the internet and
hence entities controlling the Occupy websites and social media pages, though they may influence the
meetings, ultimately do not control what is said or done in the general assembly.
Score: 3.75/5
Reasons for score:
Leadership of OWS is effective and organized, but is, nonetheless, fractured.
IV. Results for Indicator Five: Weakness of conservative groups
While many factors affect the dynamics and distribution of power in the United States, few entities have a
greater ability to resist the Occupy Wall Street Movement than the media because they can influence the
publics perception of political candidates pushing for pro-OWS legislations, the pro-OWS legislation,
and the OWS movement itself. (Entman) Campaign donors and lobbyist can also block legislations that
address the concerns of the movement via loopholes in the campaign finance system. Money it seems
holds a grotesque power over politics, media, and legislation in the United States. (Mclean) Therefore
OWS supported policy reforms such as higher taxes for the rich, elimination of tax loopholes, and
financial regulation can be blocked via loopholes in the campaign finance system such as Leadership
PACs (citation) and slanted media coverage.
However, OWS is lucky because today movements can ignore this and get their message out via
smartphones, websites, and social media platforms. (Kuhn)
Score for Indicator Five: 2/5
Reasons for Score:
This score would be 2 out of 5 instead of a 1.5 out of 5 if it were not for the ability for OWS to spread its
message via technology like the internet and smartphones. With that said, there are simply too many
ways for conservative groups to block pro-OWS public sentiment and legislation for Indicator five to
work in favor of the OWS movement.
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Analysis of Scores
Table 2 Scores by Indicator and Average Score of all Indicators
Indicator #-Name Score out of 5
1-Public Support 3.50
2-A demand for change 2.50
3-Provocation of those demanding change 2.75
4-Leadership/Organization 3.75
5-Weakness of Conservative groups 2.00
Average Score: 2.90
Given these scores, the average score for of the five indicators was 2.90 out of 5. As a percent this
number can be expressed as 58%. Hence, this method of analysis shows the likelihood of Success for theOWS movement to be an estimated 58%.
Discussion
These results show that OWS has a reasonable chance for success.
Since this study is attempting to predict the success of an ongoing and dynamic movement, monitoring
OWS from beginning to end using this method would be ideal because certain variables, such as public
support, are likely to vary over time. Hence, further research is encouraged.
Before conducting similar studies, however, it may be useful to be informed on the drawbacks and
weaknesses of this study. For example, this study does not include information past November of 2011,
the study did not conduct its own poll, the research offers few first hand observations of Occupy protests,
and was limited to internet observations of social media accounts and websites controlled by the
movement. Additionally, the scoring system that determined the chance of success for the OWS
movement to be 58% is imperfect. The scoring system does not take into account the possibility that
some of the five indicators of a movements success may turn out to be more important than the other
indicators in predicting the chance for success. (After all, there is evidence that public support may be the
most important factor in enacting political change.) Also, the scores given to each indicator are inherently
biased due to the perspectives of the researcher.
For future studies it would be best to have a number of researchers from a variety of backgroundsworking together to synthesize their results, but then scoring each indicator as individuals. This way
biases amongst the individuals can be minimized and a more accurate predication can be made. The
benefit of continuing this type of research on OWS and other future movements is that methods can be
improved overtime and trends in the movement can be tracked. With improvement, these methods have
the potential to become a useful tool in predicting the success of future movements.
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These results and results of future studies on the OWS movement would be highly useful to policy
makers, the media, the public, sociologists, and the protesters themselves because there is a power in
telling people exactly how their actions can or do impact the social and economic systems of their
community, state, and country.
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Appendix A: Picket Signs
claims/grievances
no more corruption, get corporate money out of law making
I cant afford a lobbyist. I am the 99%
f*ck trickling down they are just pissing on everybody
Shit is fucked up and bullshitThe times they are a-changing
End the war feed the poor
Make jobs, not war on middle class and poor
Something is wrong with our system when a teacher pays more taxes than general electric
Its easier to buy a gun than my education
Separation of corporation and state
Close corporate tax loopholes
Dont worry fox news I dont take you seriously either
Its wrong to create a mortaged backed security filled with loans you know are going to fail so that
you can sell it to a client who isnt aware you sabotaged it by intentionally picking the misleadingly
rated loans most likely to be defaulted upon
Obama is not a brown skinned ant-war socialist who gives away free healthcare youre thinking of
jesus
(unchecked box) democrat (unchecked box) repbulican (checked box) pissed off
They get rich, we get foreclosed, they get a bail-out, we get mad!
What to do with all the tar & feathers?
U.S army taught me to kill civilians for CEOs
I served over there but the real enemy was over here
Eat a banker
End congressional bribery
We will not eat cake
[obama poster] hoax as caption
Ronald reagan sucked ballsToo big too fail is too big to allow
We are the 99%
Taken over the last few weeks the ows movement
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Appendix B: Social Media Usage by OWS
Social media sites, such as twitter and facebook, serve as a medium of communication and a
platform of organization for the OWS movement.
Fig. 3
This screen demonstrates how active OWS is in posting footage of the protest on social media sites, and
demonstrates the organizational role taken by people controlling these pages with the link post of November, 17th
at
12:00am.
Fig. 4
This posts calls for a march on Washington D.C. and even provides an intermarry for the march.
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Appendix C: Web Circulation of Digital Information Regarding OWS
Technology can work for and against OWS. These screenshots are not taken from any websites
directly affiliated with the OWS movement, but are from the web in general. This demonstrates
the ability of digital information to spread rapidly and freely across the web.
This screenshot shows a picture, along with a link to a video; of a policeman casually pepper
spraying a group of very passive protesters at UC Davis.
Fig. 7
Taken in New York, this screenshot shows that the internet and digital recording devices can also work against the
OWS movement if they all do not behave in a socially acceptable manner.
Fig. 8
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Works Cited
Amenta, E., Caren, N., Chiarello, E., & Su, Y. (2010). The Political Consequences of Social
Movements.Annual Review of Sociology, 36(1), 287-307. doi: 10.1146/annurev-soc-
070308-120029
Entman, R. M. (2007). Framing Bias: Media in the Distribution of Power.Journal of
Communication, 57(1), 163-173. doi: 10.1111/j.1460-2466.2006.00336.x
Gottschalk, L. (1944). Causes of Revolution.American Journal of Sociology, 50(1), 1-8.
doi: 10.1086/219493
Graeber, D. (2011, September 19). "Occupy Wall Street": Thousands March in NYC Financial
District, Set Up Protest Encampment.Democracynow.org. Retrieved from
http://www.democracynow.org/2011/9/19/occupy_wall_street_thousands_march_in#.Tn
daZtA3RdY.twitter
Kuhn, & Korbel. (2011). On the Role of Human Capability in the Arab SpringUniversity of Colorado.
McCullough, D. G. (2005). 1776. New York: Simon & Schuster.
McLean, B., & Nocera, J. (2010).All the Devils are Here: The Hidden History of the Financial
Crisis. London: Penquin.
TPM. (2011, November 12). Occupy Wall Street Polls. TPM PollTracker. Retrieved December 14, 2011,
from http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/
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