predicting the success of occupy wall street

8/3/2019 Predicting the Success of Occupy Wall Street

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Estimating the Occupy Wall Street Movements Chances of Success

Justin Wolf

Abstract

This report estimates the likelihood of a successful outcome for the Occupy Wall Street movement.

Doing so required determining what characteristics indicate a successful movement and then searching

for the presence of those indicators in the Occupy Wall Street movement. After an analysis of each

indicator, the indicators were given a score out of five. The mean score was then determined and given as

a percent. This methodology, while acknowledging a high degree of subjectivity, allows one to make a

more tangible prediction of the likelihood Occupy Wall Street succeeding and encourages others to

challenge and or support the results of the study with results of their own. The study suggests that the

Occupy Wall Street movement has a greater than fifty-percent chance of achieving success, while

acknowledges that further research is necessary because the Occupy Wall Street movement is still

ongoing and likely to change. These results and results of future studies on the OWS movement would be

highly useful to policy makers, the public in general, sociologists, businessmen, and the protesters

themselves because there is a power in telling people exactly how their actions impact the social and

economic systems of their community, state, and country.

Key words and terms: Occupy Wall Street, Indicator, Movement, success, prediction, potential


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Introduction

Five indicators of a movements success, explained and listed below, were used to analyze the Occupy

Wall Street Movement so as to estimate its chances of success. The Occupy Wall Street Movement is a

series of ongoing protests started by the Canadian magazine Adbusters that has extended beyond its

original location, Zuccoti Park in New York City, to become a national and international occupymovement. (Graeber) The demands and grievances of the protesters are numerous, but most agree that

something is wrong and that something needs to change. (Graeber) Throughout this paper Occupy Wall

Street will be shortened to OWS, and OWS will stand for the more general national occupy movement.

Louis Gottschalk published an article in The American Journal of Psychologycalled The Causes of

Revolution in 1944 that provides a useful framework for analyzing the potential of a movements

success based on its message, the hope for success amongst those demanding the change and the strength

or weakness of conservative groups resisting that change. For the purpose of this research it was useful to

breakdown Gottschalks points into five indicators of a movements success. (Please note that Gottschalk

did not call these the five indicators of a movements success, this is simply an alternative breakdown of

traits he observed in other important movements.)

The five Indicators of a movements success:

1. Public support2. A demand for change3. Provocation of those demanding change4. Leadership/organization5. Weakness/strength of conservative groups.

Indicators 1-4 four are self-explanatory, but indicator 5 requires some explanation. For indicator five, the

term does not mean conservative in the way we understand it todaywe equate it to the political right.

However, the term conservative is used more generally to refer to those who promote the status quo

politically and economically. In this sense the extreme libertarian wing and the socially conservative

wing of the Republican Party, though conservative by our definition, are, by Louis Gottschalks

definition, not entirely conservative as they promote tweaking or changing the current way our

government operates in intrinsic ways. Therefore, in order to understand who is conservative in this

country by this definition one must ask: who has both the power to resist and an interest in resisting a

demand for change?

Before continuing, it is necessary to justify the use of the five indicators of a movements success to

analyze the OWS movements chances for success. The American Revolution is a powerful demonstratorof the effectiveness of Gottschalks five indicators of a successful movement. (Please note that for the

purpose of this research the term movement is practically considered synonymous with terms like protest

and revolution.)

The American Revolution had a clear provocation of those demanding change. (McCullough) Their

demand for change, though it changed from a demand for equal rights as British Citizens to a cry for

independence, is evidenced by documents such as The Declaration of Independence. (McCullough) The


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In order to test the public support of Occupy Wall Street, polling data from different dates and sources

was collected and analyzed.

Testing for the remaining four indicators required a broad investigative strategy so as to account for

differences in opinion amongst the protesters and secondary sources. The strategy included first-hand

interviews and observations of protesters in Spokane, Washington, following the official Occupy Wall

Street Website and Twitter account, watching second-hand interviews of OWS protesters, and, finally,

annotating speeches given by OWS protesters and their guest speakers.

Once the data for each indicator is collected, it will then be rated on a scale of 0 to 5, with 0 being the

worst and 5 being the best. This approach is somewhat subjective, but the scores are based on the results

and a justification for each score will be provided. This way, a percent can represent the researchers

interpretation of data as a percent score. The percent score will represent the probability of success for

the OWS movement, along with the data provided for each indicator.

ResultsI. Results for Indicator 1

Evidence for the strength of indicator one was found by compiling polling data on public support for

OWS from a variety of sources.

Table 1 Comparison of surveys measuring support for OWS (from TPM)

Date Conducted Opposed OWS Support OWS Surveyor(s) % of Change in

support since lastsurvey conducted

10/31/2011 19% 36% CNN +17%10/24/2011 27% 43% CBS/NYT +16%

10/23/2011 35% 39% Pew +4%

10/16/2011 36% 35% USA

Today/Gallup

+7%

10/10/2011 31% 59% PPP (D) -1%

Averages 30% 42% NA NA

Score for Indicator 1: 3.5/5

Reason for Score:

According to this data the average degree of support for the ideas of the OWS movement is fourty-two

percent and the average degree of opposition to the OWS movement is thirty percent. Meanwhile, all the

surveyors showed a measurable increase in support from the last time those organizations conducted a

survey with the exception of the PPP (D) survey. Since OWS started in mid-September, the amount of

public support it has received in that short of time is currently a positive for OWS. (Graeber) However, it

should be noted that public support for anything can be a very fluid statistic.


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II. Results for Indicators Two and Three: demand for change and provocation of those demanding

change

Some signs used by the protesters are simply humorous and absurd, but many of them are highly effective

communicators of what actions and trends in American society provoked the demands for change being

made by the OWS protesters (see appendix A). One sign is particularly clear on what provoked the OWS

movement:

Its wrong to create a mortgage backed security filled with loans you know are going to fail so

that can sell it to a client who isnt aware that you sabotaged it by intentionally picking the

misleadingly rated loans most likely to be defaulted upon.

One could argue that knowingly sabotaged mortgaged backed securities filled with loans are what

ultimately provoked the OWS movement. After all, they are a large part of what caused the financialcrisis. (Mclean) However, these are not the only grievances expressed by the OWS protesters. The most

prominent grievances are that the poor and middle class are treated unfairly by the government in

comparison to their treatment of the top 1% of income earners in the country, that the media and

especially the Fox News Network is biased in their coverage of OWS, that the government is corrupt, and

that the financial bailouts following the financial crisis were unjust.

However, these reasons for the provocation of the OWS movement are not relevant without a demand for

change. And so, common demands for change include closing corporate tax loopholes, ending the wars,

stopping congressional bribery, raising taxes on the rich, creating jobs, fixing the economy, better

treatment for veterans, and better treatment of and opportunity for the poor. Again, all this has been

communicated by simple picket signs.

There are also numerous videos that have been posted to youtube.com expressing similar grievances and

demands for change. The OWS websites, Facebook, and Twitter pages are, similarly, express some of

these grievances and demands for change. Because the OWS movement is a conglomerate of groups who

do not entirely agree on what provoked the movement and what changes to demand; allowing evidence

from these OWS sites to hold too much power over a researchers ability to determine what provoked the

OWS protesters demands for change could be considered irresponsible. For example, there is a small

contingent of Ron Paul supporters at many OWS encampments across the country who have different

perspectives on what caused the financial crisis and what could be done to fix what they see are the

problems with the economic and social systems of the United States. The ideas of Ron Paul supporters,

amongst other people with minority perspectives, are not represented by the major OWS websites,

Facebook pages, or Twitter pages. (See appendix B)

Scores for Indicator Two: 2.5/5

Scores for Indicator Three: 2.75/5

Reason for Scores:


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The claims being made by protesters are mostly clear, but it is the lack of agreement amongst the

protesters that hurt their score. Indicator three can be considered a positive because, although the

protesters cannot always agree on what may have caused their problems, they still agree that these

problems exist, and therefore are united by their frustration.

Another thing not working for the protesters are that some signs make vague claims and express

themselves in ways that could end up hurting the amount of public support OWS maintains. For example,

claims made by protesters such as Shit is fucked up and bullshit and fuck trickling down they are just

pissing on us, could turn people away from a movement they would otherwise support.

III. Results for Indicator Four: Leadership/Organization

The organizational structure of OWS is based on forms of mass communication such as twitter, face

book, blogs, and websites (see appendix B). These digitized forms of communication can serve to help

the OWS movement via organizing protests and other events, capturing images and videos of the protests,

capturing videos of police brutality, and by communicating their messages to the public. However, they

can also be used against the OWS movement. In one case an OWS protester was photographed

defecating on a police car. With that said, there are far more images and videos that help the OWS cause;

like a video of, judging by appearance, some very wealthy men and women on Wall Street drinking

champagne on a balcony above protesters and several videos ofsome policemen pepper spraying on

protesters and shooting protesters with rubber bullets. (See Appendix C) The use of digital information

sharing tools by OWS shows the ability of the OWS movement to get favorable images and videos online

en mass, suggesting the presence of strong organization.

As for leadership, the Canadian magazineAdbusters took on an early leadership role in OWS and

continued playing a part in the OWS movement by informing protesters and other interested people about

the socioeconomic inequalities that they perceived were happening across the country and around the

world via occupywallstreet.org, occupywallst.org

The following image clearly demonstrates thatAdbusters started the OWS movement:

Figure 2 OWS


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SinceAdbusters began the movement many other smaller groups have formed satellite protests under the

OWS brand. For example there is an Occupy Moscow, Idaho and an Occupy Casper, Wyoming among

other smaller Occupy movements that operate semi-independently of the original OWS in Zuccoti Park in

New York City, New York. (See appendix B)

In addition, many of the Occupy gatherings have what is called a general assembly, where important

matters are discussed and decisions are made via show of hands. The general assembly is standard for

most Occupy gatherings but is important to note because it operates independently of the internet and

hence entities controlling the Occupy websites and social media pages, though they may influence the

meetings, ultimately do not control what is said or done in the general assembly.

Score: 3.75/5

Reasons for score:

Leadership of OWS is effective and organized, but is, nonetheless, fractured.

IV. Results for Indicator Five: Weakness of conservative groups

While many factors affect the dynamics and distribution of power in the United States, few entities have a

greater ability to resist the Occupy Wall Street Movement than the media because they can influence the

publics perception of political candidates pushing for pro-OWS legislations, the pro-OWS legislation,

and the OWS movement itself. (Entman) Campaign donors and lobbyist can also block legislations that

address the concerns of the movement via loopholes in the campaign finance system. Money it seems

holds a grotesque power over politics, media, and legislation in the United States. (Mclean) Therefore

OWS supported policy reforms such as higher taxes for the rich, elimination of tax loopholes, and

financial regulation can be blocked via loopholes in the campaign finance system such as Leadership

PACs (citation) and slanted media coverage.

However, OWS is lucky because today movements can ignore this and get their message out via

smartphones, websites, and social media platforms. (Kuhn)

Score for Indicator Five: 2/5

Reasons for Score:

This score would be 2 out of 5 instead of a 1.5 out of 5 if it were not for the ability for OWS to spread its

message via technology like the internet and smartphones. With that said, there are simply too many

ways for conservative groups to block pro-OWS public sentiment and legislation for Indicator five to

work in favor of the OWS movement.


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Analysis of Scores

Table 2 Scores by Indicator and Average Score of all Indicators

Indicator #-Name Score out of 5

1-Public Support 3.50

2-A demand for change 2.50

3-Provocation of those demanding change 2.75

4-Leadership/Organization 3.75

5-Weakness of Conservative groups 2.00

Average Score: 2.90

Given these scores, the average score for of the five indicators was 2.90 out of 5. As a percent this

number can be expressed as 58%. Hence, this method of analysis shows the likelihood of Success for theOWS movement to be an estimated 58%.

Discussion

These results show that OWS has a reasonable chance for success.

Since this study is attempting to predict the success of an ongoing and dynamic movement, monitoring

OWS from beginning to end using this method would be ideal because certain variables, such as public

support, are likely to vary over time. Hence, further research is encouraged.

Before conducting similar studies, however, it may be useful to be informed on the drawbacks and

weaknesses of this study. For example, this study does not include information past November of 2011,

the study did not conduct its own poll, the research offers few first hand observations of Occupy protests,

and was limited to internet observations of social media accounts and websites controlled by the

movement. Additionally, the scoring system that determined the chance of success for the OWS

movement to be 58% is imperfect. The scoring system does not take into account the possibility that

some of the five indicators of a movements success may turn out to be more important than the other

indicators in predicting the chance for success. (After all, there is evidence that public support may be the

most important factor in enacting political change.) Also, the scores given to each indicator are inherently

biased due to the perspectives of the researcher.

For future studies it would be best to have a number of researchers from a variety of backgroundsworking together to synthesize their results, but then scoring each indicator as individuals. This way

biases amongst the individuals can be minimized and a more accurate predication can be made. The

benefit of continuing this type of research on OWS and other future movements is that methods can be

improved overtime and trends in the movement can be tracked. With improvement, these methods have

the potential to become a useful tool in predicting the success of future movements.


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These results and results of future studies on the OWS movement would be highly useful to policy

makers, the media, the public, sociologists, and the protesters themselves because there is a power in

telling people exactly how their actions can or do impact the social and economic systems of their

community, state, and country.


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Appendix A: Picket Signs

claims/grievances

no more corruption, get corporate money out of law making

I cant afford a lobbyist. I am the 99%

f*ck trickling down they are just pissing on everybody

Shit is fucked up and bullshitThe times they are a-changing

End the war feed the poor

Make jobs, not war on middle class and poor

Something is wrong with our system when a teacher pays more taxes than general electric

Its easier to buy a gun than my education

Separation of corporation and state

Close corporate tax loopholes

Dont worry fox news I dont take you seriously either

Its wrong to create a mortaged backed security filled with loans you know are going to fail so that

you can sell it to a client who isnt aware you sabotaged it by intentionally picking the misleadingly

rated loans most likely to be defaulted upon

Obama is not a brown skinned ant-war socialist who gives away free healthcare youre thinking of

jesus

(unchecked box) democrat (unchecked box) repbulican (checked box) pissed off

They get rich, we get foreclosed, they get a bail-out, we get mad!

What to do with all the tar & feathers?

U.S army taught me to kill civilians for CEOs

I served over there but the real enemy was over here

Eat a banker

End congressional bribery

We will not eat cake

[obama poster] hoax as caption

Ronald reagan sucked ballsToo big too fail is too big to allow

We are the 99%

Taken over the last few weeks the ows movement


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Appendix B: Social Media Usage by OWS

Social media sites, such as twitter and facebook, serve as a medium of communication and a

platform of organization for the OWS movement.

Fig. 3

This screen demonstrates how active OWS is in posting footage of the protest on social media sites, and

demonstrates the organizational role taken by people controlling these pages with the link post of November, 17th

at

12:00am.

Fig. 4

This posts calls for a march on Washington D.C. and even provides an intermarry for the march.


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Appendix C: Web Circulation of Digital Information Regarding OWS

Technology can work for and against OWS. These screenshots are not taken from any websites

directly affiliated with the OWS movement, but are from the web in general. This demonstrates

the ability of digital information to spread rapidly and freely across the web.

This screenshot shows a picture, along with a link to a video; of a policeman casually pepper

spraying a group of very passive protesters at UC Davis.

Fig. 7

Taken in New York, this screenshot shows that the internet and digital recording devices can also work against the

OWS movement if they all do not behave in a socially acceptable manner.

Fig. 8


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Works Cited

Amenta, E., Caren, N., Chiarello, E., & Su, Y. (2010). The Political Consequences of Social

Movements.Annual Review of Sociology, 36(1), 287-307. doi: 10.1146/annurev-soc-

070308-120029

Entman, R. M. (2007). Framing Bias: Media in the Distribution of Power.Journal of

Communication, 57(1), 163-173. doi: 10.1111/j.1460-2466.2006.00336.x

Gottschalk, L. (1944). Causes of Revolution.American Journal of Sociology, 50(1), 1-8.

doi: 10.1086/219493

Graeber, D. (2011, September 19). "Occupy Wall Street": Thousands March in NYC Financial

District, Set Up Protest Encampment.Democracynow.org. Retrieved from

http://www.democracynow.org/2011/9/19/occupy_wall_street_thousands_march_in#.Tn

daZtA3RdY.twitter

Kuhn, & Korbel. (2011). On the Role of Human Capability in the Arab SpringUniversity of Colorado.

McCullough, D. G. (2005). 1776. New York: Simon & Schuster.

McLean, B., & Nocera, J. (2010).All the Devils are Here: The Hidden History of the Financial

Crisis. London: Penquin.

TPM. (2011, November 12). Occupy Wall Street Polls. TPM PollTracker. Retrieved December 14, 2011,

from http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/

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