overview of fema p-58 and sp3 software
Post on 14-Jul-2016
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The FEMA P-58 Methodologyand the
Seismic Performance Prediction Program (SP3)
Curt Haselton and Jack Baker
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© HB Risk Group
Overview of FEMA P-58
P-58 is a performance prediction methodology based on a 10-year
FEMA study (enabled by much previous research).
P-58 is an alternative to experience-based or judgment-based
methods (e.g. proprietary software, HAZUS, ATC-13, etc.).
P-58 is tailored to building-specific analysis (cause + effect).
ATC is currently working on another 5-year effort to further
advance the methodology, implementation, ease of use.
The U.S. Resiliency Council is currently creating
a P-58-based rating system.
FEMA P-58 Output Results:
• Losses [$]
• Fatalities & injuries
• Repair time & red tagging
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© HB Risk Group
FEMA P-58: Methodology
Hazard and Ground Motions
• Soil and hazard curve
• Ground motions (if needed)
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© HB Risk Group
FEMA P-58: Methodology
Hazard and Ground Motions
• Soil and hazard curve
• Ground motions (if needed)
Structural Responses
• Option #1: Response-history
• Option #2: Simplified method
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© HB Risk Group
FEMA P-58: Methodology
Hazard and Ground Motions
• Soil and hazard curve
• Ground motions (if needed)
Structural Responses
• Option #1: Response-history
• Option #2: Simplified method
Damage Prediction
• Contents (str. and non-str.)
• Fragility curves
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© HB Risk Group
FEMA P-58: Methodology
Hazard and Ground Motions
• Soil and hazard curve
• Ground motions (if needed)
Structural Responses
• Option #1: Response-history
• Option #2: Simplified method
Damage Prediction
• Contents (str. and non-str.)
• Fragility curves
Loss Estimation (loss curves)
and other consequences
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© HB Risk Group
FEMA P-58: Methodology
Hazard and Ground Motions
• Soil and hazard curve
• Ground motions (if needed)
Structural Responses
• Option #1: Response-history
• Option #2: Simplified method
Damage Prediction
• Contents (str. and non-str.)
• Fragility curves
Loss Estimation (loss curves)
and other consequences
Monte Carlo
Simulation used
(“roll dice” thousands of
times).
Each “dice roll” gives a
single observation of
losses and other
consequences.
Full set of “dice rolls”
provides solid statistical
information on
performance
(e.g. 10,000 at 12 levels =
120,000 runs).
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© HB Risk Group
FEMA P-58: Output Example
Sample Results (12-story RC frame):
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© HB Risk Group
FEMA P-58 Benefits
Objective process based on data and research.
Quantitative performance information:
• Solid statistical basis.
• Sensitive enough to inform design decisions (cause + effect).
• Tools to communicate with owners.
• Dig as deep as you like.
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© HB Risk Group
FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”
Hazard and Ground Motions
• Soil and hazard curve
• Ground motions (if needed)
Structural Responses
• Option #1: Response-history
• Option #2: Simplified method
Damage Prediction
• Contents (str. and non-str.)
• Fragility curves
Loss Estimation (loss curves)
and other consequences
I need to hire a geotech to do
this…?!?!
I need to do a response-
history analysis…?!?!
I need to count and enter every foot of partition wall and
other contents…?!?!
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© HB Risk Group
FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”
The fact is that it may not be as hard to implement FEMA P-58
as some currently perceive it to be.
WHAT IF….???
What if design engineers could provide high performance
earthquake simulation predictions to their clients using the P-58
methodology in a matter of hours rather than days?
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© HB Risk Group
The Need
We have seen that a large barrier to widespread FEMA P-58
adoption is related to software and ease-of-use (high cost of
entry).
ATC/FEMA have created a great methodology but are not in
the business of maintaining software.
Need: For our profession to move forward with FEMA P-58
methods, an enabling commercial software needs to be
created and maintained.
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© HB Risk Group
SP3 Version 2.0 – Released June 2015
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© HB Risk Group
Overview of SP3 Implementation
Hazard and Ground Motions
• Soil and hazard curve
• Ground motions (if needed)
Structural Responses
• Option #1: Response-history
• Option #2: Simplified method
Damage Prediction
• Contents (str. and non-str.)
• Fragility curves
Loss Estimation (loss curves)
Soil and hazard curves embedded.
Simplified method embedded.
Structural and non-structural contents estimates and pre-
populated.
Two-level structure: (1) Simple (prelim. design, building rating, PML)(2) Refine and go as deep as you like (full new PBD).
Streamlined numerics, scalable web deployment.
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© HB Risk Group
SP3 Version 2.0
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© HB Risk Group
SP3 Version 2.0 Features
SP3 Features:
Method: FEMA P-58 damage and loss methodology implementation.
Automation: Automated look-up of soil and hazard data based on project address.
Automation: Integrated & simplified structural analysis method, providing near-
instant predictions of structural response.
Automation: Pre-populated non-structural building contents using SP3 pre-
population algorithm (no need to manually input building contents).
Flexibility: The ability to define and input any demand parameter or component the
user can create makes SP3 a powerful modeler.
Diversity: SP3 uses other methodologies, like FEMA 154, REDi, and the USRC rating
system, along with P-58 to enhance seismic predictions.
Efficiency Improved numerical methods enabling hundreds of thousands of damage
simulations in minutes.
Efficiency Software that runs in the cloud for fast computation and infinite
scalability.
Results Access Reporting tools, enabling users to quickly identify building features
leading to earthquake damage.
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© HB Risk Group
Feedback Welcomed
Our purpose in creating SP3 is to support adoption of FEMA
P-58 methods, so please let us know how we can best help in
this process.
We are still in active development, so please:
• Let us know how we can tailor our plans to most
effectively serve the engineering profession.
• Give us any other feedback/ideas (we are all ears!).
E-mail: support@hbrisk.com
Office: (530) 531-0295
Websites: www.hbrisk.com
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© HB Risk Group
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