meeting of the implementation coordination team on impacts of climate change/variability and natural...

MEETING OF THE IMPLEMENTATION COORDINATION TEAM ON IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE/VARIABILITY

AND NATURAL DISASTERS ON AGRICULTURE

Agriculture Meteorology Division World Climate Programme Dept.

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)Auckland, New Zealand, 21-23 Febrary, 2005

GUATEMALAINSIVUMEH

Departamento de Investigación y Servicios HídricosFulgencio Garavito

CLIMATIC VARIABILITY PRINCIPLES IN CENTRAL AMERICA

MAIN SOURCES:

ENSO Fenomena. Change of the global wind circulation and subsidence wind

from the high Troposphere to soil surface. Tropical Convergence Zone annual oscillation. Cyclone Activity in the Caribbean Sea, Atlantic and

Pacific Ocean. Change direction wind regional patron. Change direction, temperature and components of the

ocean currents. Change atmospheric pressure regional and local values.

CLIMATIC VARIABILITY PRINCIPLES IN CENTRAL AMERICA

SECUNDARY SOURCES:

Start and conclution irregular data of rainfall time. Many days without rainfall during the wet time (Drought). Many days with permanent rainfall during the wet time

(Floods). Change event numbers of frost and chilling. Oscillation of air, water and soil temperature and humidity. Change the average value of the sun radiation and sunshine

hours. Increase the warm waves number. Decrease percent of cloud coat and layers.

Global Air Temperature Change 1856-2001

LLUVIA ANUAL 1856-2003 Ciudad Guatemala

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Años

mili

met

ros

(litr

os/m

t²)

DESVIACION AL PROMEDIO.

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

8001856

1860

1864

1880

1892

1896

1912

1916

1924

1928

1932

1936

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1982

1986

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

AÑOS

MIL

IMET

RO

S

DESV.

Rendimiento de maìz en Kg/HaValles de Quetzaltenango, Totonicapan y San Marcos

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

-20% -10% 10% 20%

Variaciòn de lluvia

Kilo

gram

os/H

a

2G

1G

Normal

Rendimiento de maìz en Kg/HaCosta del Pacìfico de Escuintla y Santa Rosa

230024002500260027002800290030003100

-20% -10% 10% 20%

Variaciòn de lluvia

Kilo

gram

os/H

a

2G

1G

Normal

INTENSIDAD DE LLUVIA 60 min- retorno 2 años