The impact of disasters on agriculture and food security

The impact of disasters on agriculture and food security

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ii iii

Foreword xi

Acknowledgements xiii

Acronyms xv

Executivesummary xvii

INTRODUCTIONBackground 2

Purpose,approachandmethodsofthestudy 4

CHAPTER IThe scope of disaster impact on agriculture 9

1.1 Globaltrendsindamageand lossestotheagriculturesector 10

1.2 Impactofdisasterson theagriculturesubsectors andnaturalresources 13

1.3 Widerandcumulative impactofdisasters 18

CHAPTER II

Quantifying production losses,changes in trade flows andsector growth after disastersover the past decade 27

2.1 Cropandlivestockproduction lossesafterdisastersover thepastdecade 29

2.2 Changesinagriculturaltrade flowsafterdisastersover thepastdecade 33

2.3 Changesinsectorgrowth associatedwithdisasters overthepastdecade 34

CHAPTER III

Drought in sub-Saharan Africa– an in-depth analysis of the impact on agriculture 37

3.1 Briefoverviewoftrendsin droughtandfoodinsecurityin sub-SaharanAfrica(1980–2014) 39

3.2 Damageandlosseson agricultureduetodrought 39

3.3 Widerimpactofdrought 40

3.4 Quantifyinglossesafterdroughtsinsub-SaharanAfrica (1991–2013) 45

CHAPTER IV

Core findings, conclusions andthe way forward 49

4.1 Summaryofcorefindings 50

4.2 Financialresourceflowstotheagriculturesectorandtodisasterriskreduction 51

4.3 Conclusions,recommendations andthewayforward 53

©FA

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Indevelopingcountriestheagriculturesectorabsorbsabout22percentofthetotaldamageandlossescausedbynaturalhazards

Indonesia,floodsdamage2102Loremipsumipsedixit

©FA

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no

Disastersjeopardizeagricultural

productionanddevelopmentand

oftenhavecascadingnegativeeffectsacrossnational

economies

Thenumberofclimate-induceddisastershasincreasedsignificantlyoverthelastdecade

Ofallnaturalhazards,floods,droughtsandtropicalstormsaffecttheagriculturesectormostshowingthesevereimpactofclimate-relateddisasters

Morethan80percentofthedamageandlossescausedbydroughtistoagriculture,especiallylivestockandcropproduction

Thefisheriessubsectorismostaffectedbytsunamisandstorms,whilemostoftheeconomicimpactonforestryiscausedbyfloodsandstorms

Thestudyaimstohelpfillthecurrentknowledgegaponthe

natureandmagnitudeofimpactsofdisasterstriggeredby

naturalhazardsontheagriculturesectoranditssubsectors

(crops,livestock,fisheriesandforestry)indevelopingcountries.

Quantifyingthefullextentofsectordamageandlossesis

fundamentaltobetterunderstandpeople’svulnerabilitiesand

risksandinformappropriateriskreductionmeasuresand

investments.Thestudydemonstratesthatnaturalhazards

regularlyimpactheavilyonagricultureandhamperthe

eradicationofhungerandachievementof

sustainabledevelopment

xi

Foreword

Asthefrequencyandseverityofdisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazardshavecontinued

toriseoverthelastthreedecades,sotoohastheireconomiccost.Worldwide,inthe

decadefrom2003to2013,thesedisasterscostsomeUSD1.5trillionineconomic

damage.Inthelastfewyears,accordingtothe2015ReportoftheSecretary-Generalon

theImplementationoftheInternationalStrategyforDisasterReduction,

“Economiclosses[fromnaturalhazard-induceddisasters]havereachedanaverage

ofUSD250billiontoUSD300billionayear”.

Yet,weknowcomparativelylittleaboutthefullimpactofsuchdisastersonagriculture

anditssubsectors(crops,livestock,fisheriesandforestry).Thisstudywasthus

undertakenbytheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)to

beginfillinginformationgapsaboutthenatureandmagnitudeofdisasterimpactson

theagriculturesectorindevelopingcountries.

Thestudyshowsthatataconservativeestimate,22percentofthedamageandlosses

causedbysuchdisastersindevelopingcountriesbetween2003and2013fellonthe

agriculturesector–risingto25percentwhenjustclimate-relateddisastersaretaken

intoaccount.

Inmanyofthecountriesmostvulnerabletonaturalhazard-induceddisasters,

agricultureisthemainsourceoflivelihoodsandfoodsecurity,andakeydriverof

economicgrowth.Ofallnaturalhazards,floods,droughtsandstormsaffectthe

agriculturesectorthemost,showingthesevereimpactofclimate-relateddisasters

onthesector.Thesedisastersthusundermineeffortstoeradicatehungerandfood

insecurity,andbuildsustainable,prosperousfutures.

Thisyearalone,small-scalefarmers,fishers,pastoralistsandforest-andtree-dependent

people–fromMyanmartoGuatemalaandfromVanuatutoMalawi–haveseentheir

livelihoodserodedorerasedbycyclones,droughts,floodsandearthquakes.

ForFAO,enhancingtheresilienceofagriculture-basedlivelihoodsinthefaceof

disastersisatthecoreofourcommitmenttotacklehunger,foodinsecurityand

extremepovertyworldwide.

In2015,theinternationalcommunityhascommittedtotwomajoragendasthat

recognizeresilienceasfundamentaltotheirachievement:theSustainableDevelopment

GoalsandtheSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction2015–2030,whilea

UniversalClimateChangeAgreementisexpectedbeforetheendoftheyear.

However,withoutaccurate,up-to-dateinformationondisasterimpactsatthesector

level,wecannoteffectivelymeasureourprogressinmeetingthetargetsset.

Sector-specificdataondamageandlossesarealsoessentialforeffectivepolicyand

practice.Nationalstrategiesfordisasterriskreductionandclimatechangeadaptation

thatsupportresiliencemustaddressthetypesofdisasterswiththegreatestimpact

ontheagriculturesector.Ultimately,thiswillcontributetonationaleffortstoachieve

sustainableagriculturaldevelopment,reducehungerandpoverty,andmeetthetargets

setunderrelevantinternationalcommitments.

Wehopethatthisstudywillignitenational,regionalandglobaleffortstodevelop

comprehensivedatacollectionandmonitoringsystems,therebyinformingeffective

policiesandactionstobuildresilientlivelihoodsandhelperadicatehunger,food

insecurityandmalnutrition.

JoséGrazianodaSilva

Director-General

xiii

Acknowledgements

Thisreportontheimpactofdisastersonagricultureandfoodsecurityistheoutcome

ofextensivecross-departmentalcollaborationwithintheframeworkoftheeffortsof

theFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)toenhancethe

resilienceofagriculture-basedlivelihoodstodisasters.

ProducedundertheoverallleadershipofDominiqueBurgeon,StrategicProgramme

Leader–Resilience,thestudyformsacriticalpartoftheOrganization’swork

underStrategicObjective5:“Increasetheresilienceoflivelihoodstothreatsand

crises”.Significanttechnicalinputsandadvicewereprovidedbyvariousdivisions

anddepartmentswithinFAO,includingtheTechnicalCooperationDepartment,

EconomicandSocialDevelopmentDepartment,AgricultureandConsumerProtection

Department,FisheriesandAquacultureDepartment,ForestryDepartmentandthe

Climate,EnergyandTenureDivision.Inaddition,FAOcountryofficesprovided

invaluablesupportingatheringnational-leveldatawhereavailable.

ThestudyandreportwerecoordinatedandsupervisedbyStephanBaas,with

MonicaTrujilloascoordinatingleadauthor.NiccolòLombardiwasacontributing

author.LuciaPalombiandTamaravan’tWoutcontributedtotheresearch,data

collectionandanalysisandthedraftingofcasestudies.

TechnicalguidanceonthestatisticalmethodsandanalysispresentedinChapterII

wasprovidedbyShukriAhmedandPieroConforti.

Centraltothedevelopmentofthereporthavebeenthesubstantialcontributions

ofFAOcolleagueswhoparticipatedinaniterativepeerreviewprocess,including:

ShukriAhmed,PhilippeAnkers,StephanBaas,VincentBriac,KafkasCaprazli,

MonaChaya,PieroConforti,AnneDeLannoy,JimHancock,EtienneJuvanonduVachat,

NinaKoeksalan,NeilMarsland,EmmanuellaOlesambu,FlorencePoulain,Claude

Raisaro,OscarRojas,LucaRusso,PieterVanLieropandSylvieWabbes-Candotti.

Editorial,graphicanddesignworkwascoordinatedbyAnneDeLannoy.

xv

Acronyms

DES Dietaryenergysupply

EM-DAT CRED InternationalDisasterDatabase–CentreforResearch

ontheEpidemiologyofDisasters

FAO FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations

GDP Grossdomesticproduct

GFDRR GlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery

IFRC InternationalFederationofRedCrossandRedCrescentSocieties

IMF InternationalMonetaryFund

IUCN InternationalUnionforConservationofNature

OECD OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment

ODI OverseasDevelopmentInstitute

PDNA Post-disasterneedsassessment

SDG SustainableDevelopmentGoal

UNISDR UnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction

xvii

Executive Summary

Between2003and2013,disasterstriggeredbynaturalhazardscausedUSD1.5trillion

ineconomicdamage1worldwide.Indevelopingcountriesalone,thesedisasters

costaboutUSD550billioninestimateddamageandaffected2billionpeople2.Such

disastersoftenunderminenationaleconomicgrowthanddevelopmentgoals,aswell

asagriculturesectorgrowthandsustainablesectordevelopment.However,thereis

noclearunderstandingoftheeconomicimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesector3.

Toprotectdevelopmentinvestmentsintheagriculturesectorandstrengthenthe

sector’sresiliencetodisasters,aclearunderstandingisneededoftheparticularway

thesectorisaffectedbydisasters.However,globallyavailablestatisticsondamageor

lossesdonotdisaggregatetheimpactonindividualsectors.Thisislargelybecause

thedataisnotcollectedandreportedinasystematicwaybysectoratthenationalor

subnationallevels.Thus,thefullimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesectorisnot

wellunderstood.Disastersdonotaffectallpeopleandsectorsinthesamewayorto

thesameextent,andthesedifferenceshaveimportantpolicyimplications.

Effectivepolicyandpracticerequiressector-specificdamageandlossdataforthe

agriculturesector.Nationalstrategiesondisasterriskreductionandclimatechange

adaptationthatsupportresilienceandsustainableagriculturaldevelopmentmust

addressthetypesofdisasterswiththegreatestimpactonthesector,suchasclimate-

relateddisasters.Governmentsmustdesignmeasuresspecifictothecrop,livestock,

fisheriesandforestrysubsectors,andbeenabledtoadoptmoresystematicstrategies

thatcounteracttheimpactofdisastersonsectorgrowthanddevelopmentandthus

nationalfoodsecurity.Ultimately,thiswillcontributetonationaleffortstoachieve

sustainableagriculturaldevelopment,reducehungerandpoverty,andmeetthe

targetssetunderrelevantinternationalcommitments.

TheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)carriedoutthe

presentstudytohelpfillexistingknowledgegapsaboutthenatureandmagnitudeof

disasterimpactstriggeredbynaturalhazardsontheagriculturesectorandsubsectors

(crops,livestock,fisheriesandforestry)indevelopingcountries.Thestudyseeksto

providesystematizeddata,analysisandinformation,whileincreasingawareness

abouttheurgentneedtoenhancenationalandinternationalcommitmentandbudget

allocationstoriskreductionforthesector,includingimprovingdatacollectionand

monitoringsystemsonsector-specificdamageandlosses.

Theultimategoalistoinformtheimplementationandmonitoringofthethreekey

internationalagendasof2015,whichrecognizeresilienceasafundamentalingredient

fortheirachievement:theSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs),specifically

Goal2;theSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction2015–2030;andthe

UniversalClimateChangeAgreementthatisexpectedundertheUnitedNations

FrameworkConventiononClimateChange.

1 BasedondatafromtheInternationalDisasterDatabase–CentreforResearchontheEpidemiologyofDisasters(EM-DATCRED).

2 Theterm“disaster”referstoallthosecausedbynaturalhazardsasreportedinEM-DATCRED,aswellasthedataondamageandpopulationsaffected.

3 Althoughthisstudyfocusesonlyondisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazards,theimportanceofhuman-induceddisastersandtheirimpactonagricultureisrecognized.Disasterssuchasconflictsandenvironmentalcontamination,amongothers,canhavestrongrepercussionsfortheagriculturesectoranditssubsectors.

xviii xix

ThebreadthandscopeofdisasterimpactontheagriculturesectorThestudybeginsbypresentingthebreadthandscopeoftheimpactofdisasters

triggeredbynaturalhazardsontheagriculturesector.Damageandlossestothe

agriculturesectorcausedby78disastersarepresentedbasedonneedsassessments

conductedindevelopingcountriesinAfrica,AsiaandthePacific,andLatinAmerica

andtheCaribbeanbetween2003and2013.

Thefindingsrevealthatdisasterscancauseconsiderabledamagetophysical

agriculturalassetssuchasstandingcrops,irrigationsystems,livestocksheltersand

veterinaryservices,aquacultureequipmentorhatcheries;post-productioninfrastructure

suchasfacilitiesforstorage,processing,marketingandtransport,buildingsand

equipmentoffarmschoolsandcooperatives;aswellassectorministriesandtheir

departments.Lossesarealsohigh–forexample,thedecline

inoutputfromcrop,livestock,fisheriesandaquaculture,andforestryproduction–

withconsiderableeconomiclossestofarmersandoftenhavingadominoeffect

onthefoodvaluechain,agro-industries,importsandexportsandsectorgrowth.

The study found that in developing countries, the agriculture sector absorbs an average

of 22 percent of the total damage and losses caused by disasters triggered by natural

hazards.Theremainingdamageandlossesaretoothersectors,i.e.housing,health,

education,transportandcommunication,electricity,waterandsanitation,commerce,

industry,tourismandtheenvironment,amongothers.This rises to 25 percent when

considering just climate-related disasters, such as droughts, floods, hurricanes,

typhoons and cyclones4.

Therelationshipbetweendroughtandagricultureisparticularlyimportant,

as84percentofthedamageandlossescausedbydroughtsistotheagriculturesector,

whiletheremainingimpactistypicallyonsectorssuchashealthandnutrition,energy,

waterandsanitation,amongothers5.

Whenexaminingthewiderimpactofdisasters,thestudyshowsthatbeyondproduction

losses,medium- and large-scale disasters can have a significant impact across the food

value chain, with negative consequences on trade flows of agricultural commodities,

sector growth, food and non-food agro-industries, and ultimately national economies.

Forexample,cropproductionlossescausedbythe2010floodsinPakistandirectly

affectedcottonginning,riceprocessingandflourandsugarmilling,whilecottonand

riceimportssurged.Agricultureabsorbed50percentoftheUSD10billionintotal

damageandlosses,andsectorgrowthdroppedfrom3.5percentto0.2percentbetween

2009and2010,asdidnationalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)from2.8percentto1.6

percentbetweenthesameyears.

Atthesametime,disaster impact on agriculture has a direct effect on livelihoods

and food security.Disasterscancauseunemploymentand/oradeclineinwagesand

thereforeincomeamongfarmersandfarmlabourers.Theylowertheavailabilityof

foodcommoditiesinlocalmarkets,leadingtofoodinflation.Thesepressuresreduce

households’purchasingcapacity,restrictaccesstofood,depletesavingsandcanforce

thesaleofvitalproductiveassetsanderodelivelihoods.Ultimately,thequantityand

qualityoffoodconsumptionarereducedandfoodinsecurityandmalnutritionincrease,

particularlyamongthemostvulnerablehouseholds.Forinstance,the2010floodsin

Pakistanaffected4.5millionworkers,two-thirdsofwhomwereemployedinagriculture,

andover70percentoffarmerslostmorethanhalfoftheirexpectedincome.

4 Inthisstudy,climate-relateddisastersincludedrought,floodsandstormssuchashurricanes,typhoonsandcyclones.

5 Thefindingsondroughtarebasedonthreeneedsassessmentsavailableondroughtbetween2003and2013(outofthe78assessmentsreviewed),whichassessedtheimpactofdroughtinDjibouti,KenyaandUganda.(SeeChaptersIandIII.)

When considering just climate

related disasters the agriculture

sector absorbs 25% of the total

damage and losses

Over time, damage and losses to the agriculture sector accumulate as a result of

recurring disasters, adding up in their sector economic impact and constraining

agricultural growth and development.Forexample,thePhilippineswasaffected

by75disastersbetween2006and2013,primarilyfloodsandtyphoons/tropical

storms,causingUSD3.8billionindamageandlossestothesectorovereightyears.

ThistranslatesintoanaverageofUSD477millionineconomiclossestotheagriculture

sectoreveryyear,equivalenttoaboutone-quarterofthetotalannualnationalbudget

allocatedtothesectorin20146.

Analysisoftenyearsofdataonproductionlosses,changesintradeflowsandagriculturesectorgrowthAstatisticalanalysisusingFAOagriculturaldatabaseshelpedtoquantifycropand

livestockproductionlosses,aswellaschangesintradeflowsandtheperformance

ofagriculturevalueaddedassociatedwith140medium-andlarge-scaledisasters

(affectingatleast250000people)thatoccurredin67developingcountries

between2003and20137.

Theassessmentfoundthatapproximately USD 80 billion was lost as a result of

declines in crop and livestock production after these disasters.

Thiscorrespondsto333milliontonnesofcereals,pulses,meat,milkandother

commodities.These losses are equivalent to, on average, 7 percent of national per

capita dietary energy supply (DES) after each disaster8.Thisisalreadysignificantat

thenationallevel,butislikelyhigheratsubnationallevel,wherelossesincaloriesmay

increasehouseholdfoodinsecurityunlessrelevantmeasuresaretakentocompensate

andfillthegapinDES.

Thesefindingsareconsideredconservativeastheanalysisfocusedonmedium-

andlarge-scaledisasters,andonselectedagriculturalcommodities.Includingthe

thousandsofso-called“silentdisasters”thatmainlyhitagriculture,aswellas

othersmall-scaledisastersandadditionalcrop,livestock,fisheriesandaquaculture,

andforestrycommoditieswouldlikelyincreasethereportedproductionlosses.

The disasters analysed were closely correlated with rises in food imports and drops in

food exports.Increasesinimportsamounted9,inrelativeterms,to28percentoftheir

projectedvalue,whiledecreasesinexportsrepresentedabout6percentoftheprojected

valueofexports.Higherimportexpendituresandlowerexportrevenuescannegatively

affectthenationalbalanceofpayment.

Theanalysisalsorevealedsignificantnegativetrendsinagriculturevalue-addedgrowth

for55percentofthedisastersconsidered10.After each disaster there is an average loss

of 2.6 percent of national agricultural value-added growth11 in the countries affected,

with a much more significant impact likely at subnational levels.

6 ThePhilippine’s2014budgetfortheagriculturesectorwasapproximatelyUSD1.8billion.7 Medium-andlarge-scaledisasterswereselectedfortheanalysis,definedasthoseaffecting250000people

ormore,asthesearelikelytohaveanimpactonagriculturalproductionatthenationallevelandcanbeanalysedusingnationalstatistics.

8 SeeAnnex5fordetailsonthemethodology.9 Thedataontradeflowsisbasedontheanalysisofmedium-andlarge-scaledisastersthatoccurredbetween

2003and2011indevelopingcountries.10 Negativeperformanceisintendedasavalueofagriculturevalue-addedgrowthratelowerthanthe

2003–2013lineartrendvalueintheyearofdisaster.11 Agriculturevalueaddedisthenetoutputoftheagriculturesectorandsubsectorsafteraddingalloutputs

andsubtractingintermediateinputs.Agriculturevalue-addedgrowthistheannualpercentagechangeofagriculturevalueadded.

The study shows that

between 2003–2013, nearly

USD 80 billion was lost

as a result of declines in crop

and livestock production

after medium- to

large-scale disasters in

developing countries

xx xxi

Theimpactofdroughtonagricultureinsub-SaharanAfricaAnin-depthanalysiswasconductedondroughtsinsub-SaharanAfricasince1980to

betterunderstandtrendsandmagnitudeofdroughtimpactandspecificconsequences

intheregion.Thisextensiveanalysiswasprioritizedowingtothehighandincreasing

frequencyofdroughtsintheregionasaresultofclimatechange,andtheimportance

oftheagriculturesectortoeconomicgrowthandfoodsecurityintheregion.Agriculture

contributes,onaverage,to25percentofGDPinsub-SaharanAfrica,risingto50percent

whentheagribusinesssectorisincluded.Inaddition,over60percentofthepopulation

livesinruralareasandthesectoremploysabout60percentoftheworkforce12.

Between1980and2014,over363millionpeopleinsub-SaharanAfricawereaffected

bydroughts.When considered by subregion, the results show that droughts affect

more people in eastern Africa with 203 million people affected,followedbysouthern

Africawith86millionandwesternAfricawith74million.EthiopiaandKenyatogether

accountedfor30percentofthetotalnumberofpeopleaffected,withnearly61million

and48million,respectively(seeAnnex4).

The study found that sub-Saharan African countries suffered about USD 31 billion in

crop and livestock production losses after the droughts that occurred between 1991 and

2013, with the highest losses – USD 19 billion – experienced in eastern Africa.

In southern Africa, losses amounted to over USD 10 billion and USD 2.5 billion

in western Africa13.

Afterthedroughtsthatoccurredbetween1991and2011intheregion,foodimports

increasedbyUSD6billionandexportsofthesamecommoditiesfellbynearly

USD2billion14.Sub-Saharan African countries lost an average of 3.5 percent of

agriculture value-added growth after each drought–afigurethatislikelytobemore

acuteatthesubnationallevel.

The impact of drought on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa often has a major cascading

effect on national economies.Forexample,inKenyabetween2008and2011drought

causedcropproductionlossesaswellaslossesinthefoodprocessingindustry,

particularlygrainmillingandcoffeeandteaprocessing.Duringthesamefour-year

period,theagriculturesectorexperienceddamageandlossesofalmostUSD11billion

andsectorgrowthfellto-5percentin2008and-2.3percentin2009.

NeedtoimproveinformationsystemsondisasterimpactfortheagriculturesectorInordertodesignwell-informedriskreductionstrategiesandinvestmentswithinthe

agriculturesector,severalchallengesmustbeaddressedtoimprovetheinformation

systemsandstatisticsavailableontheimpactofdisastersonthesector.Thisrequires:

Ú Addressingandovercomingthesignificantdatagapsattheglobal,regional,

nationalandsubnationallevelsinordertogainafullunderstandingofthe

magnitudeanddiversityofdisasterimpactonagriculture,itssubsectorsand

relatednaturalresourcesandecosystemservices,andtobetterinformresilient

andsustainablesectoraldevelopmentplanning,implementationandfunding.

12 Deutsche Bank,2014,Agriculturalvaluechainsinsub-SaharanAfrica–Fromadevelopmentchallengetoabusinessopportunity.

13 CentralAfricaisnotincludedasnocountryinthesubregionexperienceddroughtsaffectingmorethan250000peoplebetween1991and2013.

14 Thefindingsreflectdroughtsthattookplacebetween1991and2011,asdatawasunavailableformorerecentyears.Commoditiesincludedintheanalysiswerecereals,pulses,milkandmeat.

Ú Improvingglobalandregionaldatabasesandinformationsystemsbasedon

nationaldata.Themethodologyforassessingimpactshouldbeimprovedto

bettercapturethefullextentofdisasterimpactonagriculture,itssubsectors,

thefoodvaluechain,foodsecurity,theenvironmentandnaturalresources

associatedwiththesector,andnationaleconomies.Thisprecisioniscritical

forformulatingwell-tailoredpoliciesandinvestmentsinthesector.

Ú Betterrecordingandstandardizingdatacollectionandestablishingregular

monitoringandreportingatthecountrylevel,includingatthesubnationallevel.

Thisalsorequiresadvisingonandstrengtheningthecapacitytodoso,whichis

criticalfordisasterriskmanagementandagriculturesectorriskmanagement.

Ú Systematicallyusingdamageandlossinformationattheglobalandnational

levelstomonitorandmeasureprogresstowardstheresiliencegoalsandtargets

oftheSDGs,theSendaiFrameworkandtheexpectedUniversalClimateChange

Agreement.

InordertomeetthesechallengesandaspartoftheOrganization’scommitmentto

resilienceandthethreeglobalagendas,FAOwillsupporteffortstoimprovemonitoring

andreportingofdisasterimpactontheagriculturesectorbyassistingMemberNations

tocollectandreportrelevantdata.FAOwillalsoimprovethemethodologyapplied

tomeasuring,atthegloballevel,theimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesector;for

example,byenhancingstatisticalanalysisandincreasingthenumberofcountries,

disastersandcommoditiesanalysed.

RecommendationstostrengthentheresilienceoftheagriculturesectorInordertoreducetheimpactofdisastersonagriculture,especiallyinviewofclimate

changeandtheincreasingfrequencyandmagnitudeofclimate-relateddisasters,itis

necessarytoensurethat:

Ú Disasterriskreductionforresiliencebuildingbecomesanessentialcomponent

ofallhumanitariananddevelopmentfundingfortheagriculturesector15,aswell

asapriorityforgovernmentandprivatesectorinvestmentinagriculture.This

isparticularlyimportantincountrieswheredisasterscauseheavylossestothe

sectorandnationaleconomies.

Ú Disasterriskreductionandmanagement(abackboneofresilience)is

systematicallyembeddedintoagriculturesectordevelopmentplansand

investments,particularlyindisaster-pronecountrieswhereagricultureisan

importantsourceoflivelihoods,foodsecurityandnutrition,aswellasakey

driverofeconomicgrowth.

Ú Humanitarianaidtoagriculturemoreconsistentlyreflectstheimpactof

disastersonthesector.Disasterriskreductionandmanagementstrategies

shouldbeintegratedintopost-disasterrecoveryeffortsintheagriculturesector

toensurethatinvestmentsmadeindisasterresponseandrecoveryalsobuild

resiliencetofutureshocks.

Ú Nationalgovernmentsandtheinternationalcommunityestablishtargetsfor

financingdisasterriskreductionintheagriculturesectorinordertopreventand

mitigatethesignificantimpactofdisasters.

15 OverseasDevelopmentInstitute.2014.Daretoprepare:takingriskseriously.Financingemergencypreparedness;fromfightingcrisistomanagingrisk.

xxii 1

Introduction

Thehighdamageandlossescausedbydisastersunderminenationalinvestmentsandmaketheeradicationofhungermoredifficulttoachieve

One-quarter of the damage and losses caused by climate-related

disasters is on agriculture and its sub-sectors.

The high damage and losses caused by disasters undermine national investments

and make the eradication of hunger more difficult to achieve

Sub-SaharanAfrica,Drought2o09Loremipsumipsedixit

Introduction

Dataondisasterdamageandlossesintheagriculture

sectorarenotsystematicallycollectedorreported

Economic losses have reached an average of USD 250 billion to USD 300 billion a year, severely affecting stable economic growth in low- and middle-income countries and eroding development gains in vulnerable communities. Source: 2015 Report of the Secretary-General on the Implementation of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

The study reviewed 78 post-disaster needs assessments of disaster events in 48 countries, and

conducted a statistical analysis of 140 medium- and large-scale disasters in 67 countries

©FA

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asha

Guy

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y

Philippines,TyphoonHaiyan,2013fisheriesinfrastructuredamage

Worldwide, the average annual number of disasters that occurred between 2003 and 2013 was twice the average annual number of disasters that occurred in the 1980s

3

Background

Between 2003 and 2013, disasters caused by natural hazards caused USD 1.5 trillion

in damages worldwide (Figure 1).Indevelopingcountriesalone,estimateddamages

fromthesedisastersamountedtoaboutUSD550billionandaffected2billionpeople16.

Suchdisastersunderminenationaleconomicgrowthanddevelopmentgoals,aswell

asthegrowthandsustainabledevelopmentoftheagriculturesector.Despitethis,there

isasofyetnoclearunderstandingoftheextentandnatureoftheeconomicimpactof

disastersontheagriculturesectoranditssubsectors.Thisstudythusseekstofillthis

criticalinformationgap17.

Over the last three decades, there has been a rising trend in the occurrence of disasters

worldwide and related economic damage (Figure 2). Thisisparticularlynoteworthy

inrelationtoclimatologicaleventssuchasdroughts,hydrologicaleventslikefloods

andmeteorologicaleventssuchasstorms.

16 Theterm“disaster”referstoallthosecausedbynaturalhazardsasreportedinEM-DATCRED,aswellasthedataondamages.Theeconomicdamagesreportedinthisdatabaseareconsideredanunderestimategiventhatsuchinformationisonlyavailablefor36percentofdisastersreported.

17 Althoughthisstudyfocusesonlyondisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazards,theimportanceofhuman-induceddisastersandtheirimpactonagricultureisrecognized.Disasterssuchasconflictsandenvironmentalcontamination,amongothers,mayhavestrongrepercussionsontheagriculturesector.

The increase in weather-related events is of significant concern to the agriculture sector

given the sector’s dependence on climate.Aswillbedemonstratedthroughoutthis

report,thesetypesofhazardsposethegreatestthreattothesector.Theurgentneed

tostrengthentheresilienceoffoodsystemsiscleargiventheincreasingfrequencyand

severityofclimate-relateddisasters,coupledwiththerisingdemandforfoodlinkedto

populationgrowth.Thisisparticularlycrucialincountrieswheredisastersarefrequent

andwheretheagriculturesectorcontributessignificantlytoemployment,poverty

reductionandfoodsecurity,aswellasbeingakeydriverofnationaleconomicgrowth.

Aclearunderstandingoftheparticularwayinwhichtheagriculturesectorisaffected

bydisastersiscrucialtoprotectdevelopmentinvestmentsandstrengthenthesector’s

resiliencetodisasters.Yet,theeconomicimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesector

isnotknownattheglobalorregionallevels.Globally available statistics on damage or

losses do not disaggregate the impact on individual sectors.

Thisislargelybecausetheimpactofdisastersisnotcollectedandreportedina

systematicwaybysectoratthenationalorsubnationallevels.Intheaftermathof

disasters,manycountriesconductneedsassessmentsinvolvingsectoralministriesin

ordertoinformthehumanitarianresponse.Insomecases,assessmentsareconducted

asajointeffortbetweengovernmentsandtheinternationalcommunity,forexample

post-disasterneedsassessments(PDNAs).Suchassessmentsevaluatetheimpactof

disastersacrossallrelevantsectors;however,theassessmentresultsanddatacollected

arenotsystematicallyincludedinnationaldisasterlossdatabases.

Needsassessmentsdonotshareacommonmethodforassessingtheimpactof

disasters.Someuselivelihoodorfoodeconomyapproachestoassesstheimpactof

adisasterontheagriculturesector,whileothersassesstheeconomicimpactorfocus

onthephysicaldamagetocropsandlivestock.Thevaryingformsofanalysisapplied

produceadifferentperspectiveofthedisasterimpactonthesector.Theendresultis

thatthefullconsequencesofdisastersontheagriculturesectorarenotwellunderstood

attheglobal,regional,nationalorsubnationallevels.

ClimatologicalHydrologicalMeteorologicalGeophysical

Total cost (USD million)Legend

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

200

920

08

200

720

06

200

520

04

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02

200

120

00

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

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1991

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1989

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1987

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1982

1981

1980

Figure 1. The impact of disasters between 2003 and 2013

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Damage (USDbillion)

$

ä

People killed

Totalpeoplekilled

1,159,925

93,115

29,893

22,422

242,189

16,016

329,99834,143

11,526

22,225

ä

Totaldamage

$1.535 trillion

70136

21434

74

19046

132

364156119

People affected(million)

161

126

161

126

213

223

202

260

213

111

97

ä

Totalpeople affected

2.023 billion

113,518

244,880

â95% ofpeople affectedby climate-related disasters

â5%affectedby otherdisasters

â90%ofdamage wascausedby floodsandstorms

â10% byother disasters

Source:EM-DATCRED

Figure 2. Number of disasters triggered by natural hazards worldwide, 1980–2014

Source:EM-DATCRED

4 5

Disastersdonotaffectallpeopleandsectorsinthesameway,ortothesameextent,

andthesedifferenceshaveimportantpolicyimplications.Forexample,asthisstudy

illustrates,specifictypesofhazardscausemoreagriculturallossesthanothers,

theagriculturesubsectorsareaffecteddifferentlybydisasters,andthenatureof

disasterimpactonthesectordiffersbyregionandcountry.Itisthereforenecessaryto

understandthebreadthandscopeofdisasterimpactonagricultureandlivelihoods,

suchastheextenttowhichdisastersincreasetheleveloffoodinsecurityorarrest

sectoreconomicgrowth.

Effectivepolicyandpracticerequiressector-specificdamageandlossdataforthe

agriculturesector.Nationalstrategiesfordisasterriskreductionandclimatechange

adaptationthatsupportresilienceandsustainableagriculturaldevelopmentmustbe

informedbytheparticularnatureofdisasterimpactonthesector,addressinghazards

thatcausethegreatestlossessuchasclimate-relateddisasters;designingmeasures

specifictothecrop,livestock,fisheriesandaquaculture,andforestrysubsectors;and

adoptingmoresystemicstrategiesthatcounteracttheimpactofdisastersonsector

growthanddevelopmentandonnationalfoodsecurity.Ultimately,thiswillsupport

governmenteffortstoachievesustainableagriculturaldevelopment,reducehunger

andpovertyandmeettheirtargetsunderrelevantinternationalcommitments.

Purpose, approach and methods of the study

SpecificobjectiveandpurposeofthestudyTheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)undertookthis

studywiththespecificobjectiveofhelpingtofilltheexistingknowledgegapabout

thenatureandmagnitudeoftheimpactsofdisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazards

ontheagriculturesectoranditssubsectors(crops,livestock,fisheriesandforestry)

indevelopingcountries.Throughthestudy,FAOseekstoprovidesystematized

data,analysisandinformation,aswellasincreaseawarenessabouttheurgentneed

toenhancenationalandinternationalcommitmentandbudgetallocationstorisk

reductionforthesector,includingimprovingdatacollectionandmonitoringsystems

fordamageandlossestoagriculture.

Theultimategoalofthestudyistoinformtheimplementationandmonitoringofthe

threemaininternationalagendastobeadoptedin2015,whichrecognizeresilience

asfundamentaltotheirachievement:(i)theSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs),

specificallyGoal2;(ii)theSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction2015–2030;

and(iii)theUniversalClimateChangeAgreementthatisexpectedundertheUnited

NationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,includingtheWarsawInternational

MechanismforLossandDamageassociatedwithClimateChangeImpacts

(LossandDamageMechanism).

Disasters do not affect

all people and sectors

in the same way

or to the same extent

Ultimately, the study should

inform the implementation

and monitoring of the three

main international agendas

to be adopted in 2015,

which recognize resilience

as fundamental to their

achievement

ConceptsusedtodefinetheimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesectorForthepurposeofthisstudy,theimpactofdisastersonagricultureisconsidered

inaholisticmannertocapturedamageandlossestothesector,theresultingwider

economicimpact,andtheeffectonlivelihoods,foodsecurityandnutrition.

Damage and losses:

“Damage”referstothetotalorpartialdestructionofphysicalassetsandinfrastructure

indisaster-affectedareas,expressedasreplacementorrepaircosts.Intheagriculture

sector,damageisconsideredinrelationtostandingcrops,irrigationsystems,livestock

sheltersandveterinaryservices,aquacultureequipmentorhatcheries,farmequipment

andmachinery,andpost-productioninfrastructuresuchasstorage,processing,

marketingandtransportfacilities,amongothers.

“Losses”refertothechangesineconomicflowsarisingfromthedisaster.In

agriculture,lossesmayinclude,amongothers,thedeclineinoutputincrop,livestock,

fisheriesandaquaculture,andforestryproduction;increasedcostsoffarminputssuch

asfertilizers,seeds,livestockfeed,veterinarycareandotherinputs;lowerrevenuesand

higheroperationalcostsintheprovisionofservices;andtheunexpectedexpenditures

tomeethumanitarianandrecoveryneedsinthesector18.

The wider impact on economy, food security and nutrition:Thestudyalsoconsiders

lossesacrossthefoodvaluechain,andtheconsequentimpactonagriculturevalue

addedorsectorgrowthontradeflowsandonnationaleconomicgrowth.Thewider

impactconsiderslossesinfoodandnon-foodagro-industriesthatresultfrom

agriculturalproductionlosses.Inaddition,theresultingwiderimpactsonrural

andagriculture-basedlivelihoodsandfoodsecurityareconsidered.Forexample,

employmentandincomelossesamongfarmlabourers,reducedfoodsupply,restricted

accesstofood,reducedquantityandqualityoffoodconsumed,andincreasesin

malnutritionamongaffectedpopulations.

Key terminology specific to this report

The agriculture sector:thisincludesthecrop,livestock,fisheriesandforestry

subsectors,andissointendedwhenusedthroughoutthereportunless

otherwisespecified.

Disasters:theanalysisundertakenandpresentedthroughoutthisreportfocused

ondisasterscausedbynaturalhazards,i.e.droughts,floods,hurricanes,typhoons,

cyclones,earthquakes,tsunamisandvolcaniceruptions.Therefore,theterm

“disasters”inthisreportreferstothesetypesofhazards,unlessindicatedotherwise.

Climate-related disasters:inthisreport,thesereferspecificallytodroughts,floods,

hurricanes,typhoonsandcyclones.

Resilience:thisisunderstoodastheabilitytopreventdisastersandcrises,andto

anticipate,absorb,accommodateorrecoverfromtheminatimely,efficientand

sustainablemanner.Thisincludesprotecting,restoringandimprovingfoodand

agriculturalsystemsunderthreatsthatimpactfoodsecurityandnutrition,

agriculture,and/orfoodsafetyandpublichealth.

18 Forthemostpart,thisreportappliesthedefinitionofdamageandlossesusedinthemethodologyoftwoneedsassessmentguidelines:(i)UnitedNations,GlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery(GFDRR)andEuropeanCommission.2013.Post-DisasterNeedsAssessmentsVolumeAandBGuidelines;and(ii)GFDRR.2010.Damage,LossandNeedsAssessment:GuidanceNotesVolume1.

INTRODUCTION

6 7

ApproachandmethodsusedinthestudyGiventhelackofgloballyavailabledataontheeconomicimpactofdisastersonthe

agriculturesectorindevelopingcountries,thestudycombinedseveralmethodstofill

theinformationgap.Inparticular,thestudysoughttoshedsomelightonthenature

andcharacteristicsofdisasterimpactonagricultureanditssubsectors,quantify

losses,holisticallyassessthebroaderimpactonthesectorandreportatawiderscale,

coveringdevelopingcountries.Thefollowingisabriefoverviewoftheapproachand

methodologyused.

Review and analysis of damage and losses to the agriculture sector caused by disasters

over the past decade in developing countries:Theanalysisisbasedonasampleof

78needsassessmentsundertakenintheaftermathofdisasters19thatoccurredbetween

2003and2013in48countriesinAfrica,AsiaandthePacific,andLatinAmericaand

theCaribbean.(ThelistofcountriesanddisastersanalysedisprovidedinAnnex3.)

Thesampleincludessmall-,medium-andlarge-scaledisasters20,coveringdifferent

typesofnaturalhazardsacrossalldevelopingregions.Assuch,itisarepresentative

samplethatprovidesanevidence-basedanalysisofglobaltrends.Thismethodmade

itpossibletoidentifythecombineddamageandlossesthataffectthesector,theshare

ofdamageandlossestoagriculturecomparedwithotheraffectedsectors,thetypes

ofhazardsthathavehadthemostsignificanteconomicimpactonagricultureandthe

differencesinthisimpactacrosstheagriculturesubsectors.

Statistical analysis to quantify crop and livestock production losses observed after the

occurrence of disasters over the past decade, as well as changes in trade flows and

agriculture value-added growth:Thiswasdonetofillinformationgapsinstatistics

currentlyavailableatthegloballevel.Thestatisticalanalysiscovers140disasters

thataffected250000peopleormoreandthattookplacebetween2003and2013in

Asia,LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,theNearEastandsub-SaharanAfrica.(The

listofcountriesanalysedisprovidedinAnnex2.)Theanalysisusednationaland

internationalstatisticsondisasters,production,importsandexports(tradeflows),and

agriculturevalue-addedgrowth,basedondatainFAOSTATandtheWorldBankWorld

DevelopmentIndicators.Thefindingsrepresentafirstefforttoprovideapproximate

figuresonsomeofthekeylossesassociatedwithdisastersintheagriculturesector.

Theanalysisprioritizeddevelopingcountriesandfocusedonaselectednumberof

agriculturalcommodities.(Amoredetaileddescriptionofthemethodologyusedis

providedinAnnex5.)

In-depth review and analysis of specific disaster events, including drought in

sub-Saharan Africa, based on a comprehensive set of data and information sources,

to develop case material and present a holistic picture of disaster impact on the

agriculture sector:Theanalysisofdetaileddatafrommanysourcesmadeitpossible

todevelopcasestudiesthatdemonstratethewideimpactthatdisastershaveonthe

sector,includingtheimpactofproductionlossesacrossthevaluechain,onsector

value-addedgrowth,importsandexports,balanceofpaymentsandoverallnational

economies,aswellasonfoodsecurityandnutrition.

19 TheneedsassessmentsreviewedincludebothPDNAsanddamageandlossassessments,aswellasothersthatmayusedifferenttitlesornames.

20 Ofthe78disastersreviewed,41affectedmorethan250000people,while15affectedbetween50000and250000people,and22affectedlessthan50000people.

The study covers 15 small

island developing states

including

11 in the Caribbean,

2 in Africa and

2 in Asia and the Pacific

Study outline

Thefindingsofthestudyarepresentedinfoursections,asoutlinedbelow.

Chapter I:Thescopeofdisasterimpactonagriculture

Thischapterpresentsthebreadthandscopeofdisasterimpactontheagriculture

sector.Inparticular,thechapterfocuseson(i)keyglobaltrendsrelatedtodamageand

lossestotheagriculturesector,basedonasampleof78disastereventsthatoccurred

overthepastdecade(2003–2013)indevelopingcountries;(ii)ananalysisofdisaster

impactontheagriculturalsubsectors(crops,livestock,fisheriesandforestry)and

naturalresources;and(iii)ananalysisofthewiderimpactofdisasters,forexample

acrosstheagriculturevaluechain,onagro-industries,nationaleconomiesand

livelihoods,basedonstatisticalanalysesandin-depthcasestudies.Thechapter

alsoillustratesthecumulativedamagesandlossescausedbyrecurringdisasters

inspecificcountries.

Chapter II: Quantifyingproductionlosses,changesintradeflowsand

sectorgrowthafterdisastersoverthepastdecade

Thischapterfocusesonaquantitativemeasurementofthelossesassociatedwith140

disastersthatoccurredoverthepastdecadeindevelopingcountriesbasedonFAO’s

statisticalanalysis.Thefindingsoftheanalysispresentedinclude:(i)quantificationof

themonetaryvalueofcropandlivestockproductionlosses;

(ii)observedchangesinagriculturalimportsandexports;and(iii)trendsinthe

performanceofagriculturevalue-addedgrowth.Theresultsarepresentedforall

developingregionsandcomparedacrossregionsandbytypeofhazard.

Chapter III:Droughtinsub-SaharanAfrica–anin-depthanalysisoftheimpact

onagriculture

Giventhesevereimpactofdroughtonagriculture,thischapterisdedicatedtoan

in-depthanalysisofhowdroughtshaveaffectedsub-SaharanAfricafrom1980to2013.

Theanalysislooksatdroughttrendsintermsoftheirgeo-spatialandtemporal

distributionbysubregionanddecade,quantifyingthecropandlivestockproduction

lossesassociatedwithdroughtsandillustratingthewiderimpactofdroughtson

thefoodvaluechain,tradeflows,agriculturesectorgrowth,nationalGDPandother

nationaleconomicindicators,aswellasonfoodsecurityandnutrition.

Chapter IV:Corefindings,conclusionsandthewayforward

Thefinalchapterpresentsthecorefindingsandmainconclusions,includingthe

implicationsofthestudy’sfindingsfordisasterriskreductionandmanagementaswell

asdevelopmentplanninginagriculture.Thechapteralsoprovidesrecommendations

tosupportglobal,regionalandnationaleffortstostrengthentheresilienceofthe

agriculturesectorandlivelihoods.

INTRODUCTION

8 9

Indirect losses experienced by the agriculture sector in the seasons after a disaster are twice as high as the direct damage to agricultural assets

Twenty-five percent of the economic impact caused by climate-related disasters falls on the agriculture sector

Chapter I

Thescopeofdisasterimpact

onagriculture

Almost three-quarters of recorded post-disaster damage and losses to agriculture were to the crops and livestock subsectors

Theimpactofdifferenttypesofhazardson

agriculturesubsectorsvariessubstantially,

whichrequirescontext-specificdisaster

riskreductionandmanagement

©FA

O/A

sim

Haf

eez

Pakistan,2010floodsDestructionofirrigationandfeederroads

10 11

Thischapterpresentsthebreadthandscopeofdisasterimpactontheagriculture

sector.Keyglobaltrendsfordamageandlossestotheagriculturesectorarepresented,

followedbyadiscussionofthenatureofdisasterimpactonagriculturesubsectors

(crops,livestock,fisheriesandforestry)andnaturalresources,withtrendsindamage

andlossesforeach.Thewiderimpactofdisastersisthenpresentedacrossthevalue

chain,onagro-industries,nationaleconomies,livelihoodsandfoodsecurity,aswellas

thecumulativedamageandlossescausedbyrecurringdisasters.

Global trends in damage and losses to the agriculture sector

OveralldamageandlossestoagricultureFAOanalysedthedamageandlossestotheagriculturesectorcausedby78disaster

eventsthatoccurredbetween2003and2013indevelopingcountriesinAfrica,Asiaand

thePacific,andLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.Theseincludedsmall-,medium-and

large-scaledisasters,13ofwhichoccurredinAfrica,27inAsiaandthePacific,37in

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,andoneinEasternEurope.

(SeeAnnex3forafulllistofthecountriesanddisastersanalysed.)

Thedataanalysedisbasedoninformationreportedinneedsassessments,whichare

typicallyundertakenintheimmediateaftermathofdisastersasacollaborativeeffort

betweengovernmentsandtheinternationalcommunitytoassesstheimpactofa

disasteronallmajoraffectedsectors 21.Thestudycalculatedthedamageandlossesto

theagriculturesectorasreportedintheseneedsassessments22.Intheassessments,

damagereferstothetotalorpartialdestructionofphysicalassetsandinfrastructure

intheaffectedareasintermsoftheirmonetaryvalueexpressedasreplacementcosts.

Lossesrefertothechangesineconomicflowsarisingfromthedisasterandthat

continueuntileconomicrecoveryisachieved23.

Together,the78disasterscostUSD30billionindamageandlossestoagricultureand

itssubsectors,outofatotalofUSD140billionincombineddamageandlossesacross

allsectors.Theattachedmapshowsthetendisasterscausingthegreatestdamageand

lossestotheagriculturesectoroutofthe78reviewedbetween2003and2013.

Disastershaveanimpactacrossarangeofsectorsdependingontheirmagnitude,

geographiclocationandothercharacteristics.Thereviewedneedsassessmentstypically

evaluatedthedamageandlossestoproductivesectorssuchasagriculture,livelihoods,

commerceandindustry,commerceandtrade,andtourism;tosocialsectorssuchas

housing,education,health,cultureandnutrition;andtoinfrastructuresuchaswater

andsanitation,energyandelectricity,transportandtelecommunications24.

Thedamageandlossescalculatedfortheagriculturesectorwereanalysedinrelationto

thedamageandlossestoallsectorscombined,expressedintermsofthepercentage

shareofthetotal.Thefindingsindicatethatintermsofdirectphysicaldamagealone,

roughly14percentwastotheagriculturesectorwhiletheremainingdamagewasto

othersectors.

21 TheneedsassessmentsreviewedincludebothPDNAsanddamageandlossassessments,aswellasothersthatmayusedifferenttitlesornames.

22 Thedamageandlossestotheagriculturesectorreportedinthischapterincludetheimpactoncrops,livestock,fisheries,forestry,irrigationandotherareassuchassectorinfrastructure,whicharecalculatedunderdifferent‘sectors’withintheneedsassessmentsreviewed.

23 Forfurtherinformationonthemethodologyusedtoassessdamageandlosses,referto:(i)EuropeanCommission,WorldBankandUnitedNations.2013.PDNAsVolumeAandBGuidelinesand(ii)GFDRR.2010.Damage,LossandNeedsAssessment:GuidanceNotesVolume1.

24 ForfurtherinformationonsectoralclassificationsseeEuropeanCommission,WorldBankandUnitedNations.2013.PDNA:VolumeAGuidelines;andWorldBank.2010.Damage,LossandNeedsAssessmentGuidanceNotes.

1.1

Together, the 78 disasters

cost USD 30 billion in

damage and losses to the

agriculture sector

Thisdirectdamagetoagriculturetypicallyincludesthepartialortotaldestructionof

vitalagriculturalinfrastructureandassets,includingstandingcrops;farmtoolsand

equipment;irrigationsystems;livestocksheltersandveterinaryservices;fishingboats

andequipment;landingsites;aquacultureequipmentandhatcheries;post-production

infrastructuresuchasstorage,processing,marketingandtransportfacilities;buildings

andequipmentoffarmschoolsandcooperatives,andsectorministriesandtheir

departments,amongothers.

Ofalltheindirectlossesthesedisasterscaused,nearly30percentwastothe

agriculturesectoralone.Inotherwords,thegreatesteconomicimpactofdisastersto

theagriculturesectorstemsfromlosses,whilethephysicaldamageiscomparatively

smallergiventherelativelylowermonetaryvalueofagriculturalassetswhencompared

withinfrastructuresuchashousingorroads.Thelossestotheagriculturesectormay

includeadeclineinoutputincrop,livestock,fisheriesandaquaculture,andforestry

production;increasedcostofproductionfromhigheroutlaysonfarminputssuchas

fertilizers,seeds,livestockfeedandveterinarycare,amongothers;lowerrevenuesand

higheroperationalcostsintheprovisionofservices;andunexpectedexpendituresto

meethumanitarianandrecoveryneedsinthesector.

Whendamageandlossesarecombined,the agriculture sector absorbs an average of

22percent of the total impact of natural hazards – a figure much higher than previously

reported25.Theremainingdamageandlossesaretoothersectorssuchashousing,

health,education,transportandcommunication,electricity,waterandsanitation,

commerce,industry,tourism,andtheenvironment,amongothers.

Whenconsideringonlyclimate-relateddisasters–suchasfloods,droughts,hurricanes,

typhoonsandcyclones(excludinggeologicalhazardssuchasearthquakes,tsunamis

andvolcaniceruptions)–thepercentageshareofthetotaldamageandlossesaffecting

agriculturerises.Twenty-five percent of the economic impact caused by climate-related

disasters falls on the agriculture sector.

25 Inthe2013GlobalAssessmentReport,themonetaryvalueofdisasterimpactwascalculatedbasedonphysicalimpactindicatorsreportedin45nationaldisasterlossdatabases.Physicalimpactindicatorsincludedhousesdamagedanddestroyed,hospitalsdamaged,educationcentresdamaged,damagesinroads,crophectaresdamagedandlivestockunitslost.Accordingtotheestimatedfigures,agriculture(cropsandlivestock)absorbedabout13percentofthetotalmonetaryvalueofdisasterimpact.SeeUnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction(UNISDR)2013.

22%

14% share of damage

up from 30%

share of losses

Intermsofdirectphysicaldamagealone,roughly 14% was to the

agriculture sectorwhiletheremainingdamagewastoothersectors.

This direct damage to agriculture typically includes the partial or total

destruction of vital agricultural infrastructure and assets,including

standingcrops;farmtoolsandequipment;irrigationsystems;livestock

sheltersandveterinaryservices;fishingboatsandequipment;landing

sites;aquacultureequipmentandhatcheries;storage,processing,

marketingandtransportfacilities;buildingsandequipmentoffarm

schoolsandcooperatives,andsectorministriesandtheirdepartments.

Nearly 30% of the share of losses was to the agriculture sector alone.

The greatest economic impact of disasters to the agriculture sector

stems from losses,whilethephysicaldamageissmallergiventhe

relativelylowermonetaryvalueofagriculturalassetswhencompared

withinfrastructuresuchashousingorroads.The losses to the

agriculture sector include a decline in crops, livestock and fisheries and

aquaculture production;increasedcostofproduction,lowerrevenues

andhigheroperationalcostsforservices;unexpectedexpendituresto

meethumanitarianandrecoveryneedsinthesector.

Dam

age

and

loss

es to

agr

icul

ture

as

sha

re o

f tot

al d

amag

e an

d lo

sses

to

all s

ecto

rs

share of damage and losses

CHAPTERIThescopeofdisasterimpactonagriculture

12 13

However,thepercentageshareofdamageandlossestotheagriculturesectorvaries

significantlyamongthedisastersanalysed,influencedbythetypeofdisaster,their

magnitudeorspecificgeographiclocation(ruralversusurban),amongotherfactors.

Forexample,inKenya,85percentofalldamageandlossescausedbydroughtbetween

2008and2011weretotheagriculturesector.InPakistan,thesectorsufferedroughly

50percentofthetotaleconomicimpactofthe2010floods,whiletropicalstormO3B

whichstruckYemenin2008inflicted63percentofitsimpactontheagriculturesector,

andtheIndonesiantsunamiin2004almost20percent.

Thedatawasanalysedbytypeofdisastertodeterminewhichcausedthegreatest

damageandlossestoagriculture,expressedasthepercentageshareoftotaldamage

andlossestoallsectorscombined.AsillustratedinFigure 3, the findings show that

of all natural hazards, the relationship between drought and agriculture is particularly

important as 84 percent of the damage and losses caused by droughts is to agriculture,

whiletheremainingimpactistypicallytosectorssuchashealthandnutrition,energy,

waterandsanitation,amongothers.Thisfigureisanestimatebasedonthreeneeds

assessmentsavailableondroughts–inDjibouti(2008–2011),Kenya(2008–2011)

andUganda(2010–2011).Giventhesignificantimpactofdroughtonagriculture,

andthelimiteddataavailable,ChapterIIIpresentsanin-depthanalysisofdroughtin

sub-SaharanAfrica,showingstrongevidencethatsupportsthisestimate.Hurricanes,

cyclones,typhoonsandfloodsalsohaveaconsiderableimpactontheagriculture

sector,whilegeologicaldisastershaveacomparativelylowereconomicimpact.

Thesefindingsrevealthatasignificantproportionoftheoveralleconomicimpact

ofdisastersfallsontheagriculturesectorwhencomparedwiththetotalimpacton

allsectorscombined.Thisisespeciallytrueinthecaseofclimate-relateddisasters,

particularlydroughts.Yet,therearestrongindicationsthatdamageandlossesto

agricultureareconsiderablyhigherthanreported.Forexample,thedatadoesnot

includethedamageandlossestoagriculture-basedsmallandmediumenterprisesor

on-farmunemploymentandtheconsequentincomelosscausedbydisasters.Such

dataistypicallygroupedunderaseparate“livelihoods”sectorintheassessments

analysed.

Inaddition,disasterimpactonsubsectorssuchasfisheriesandforestryisnotalways

reportedintheassessments26.Moresystematicassessmentsandanalysesofdisaster

impactacrosssectorsareneededtoprovideguidanceforthemainstreamingof

26 Forexample,damageandlossesarenotreportedforthefisheriessubsectorin38percentoftheassessmentsreviewed,and60percentinthecaseoftheforestrysubsector.Althoughinsomecasesthisislikelybecausethesubsectorswerenotaffected,inothersitisnot.

disasterriskreductionintodevelopmentpoliciesandstrategies.Thelargeshare

ofdroughtimpactabsorbedbyagriculture,forexample,calledforthedevelopment

ofnationaldroughtmanagementpoliciesinaffectedcountries.

Regularassessmentofdamageandlossescausedbydroughtwouldprovideinvaluable

supporttopolicy-makersforthemainstreamingofdroughtmanagementprinciplesand

actionsintoagriculturaldevelopmentplans.

Disastersthathaveasignificantimpactonagriculturewilltypicallyslowdownsector

growth,aswellasnationalGDPincountrieswherethesectordriveseconomic

growth.Yettheselossesarenotusuallycalculatedinassessmentsandaretherefore

notreflectedinthedatareportedabove.Finally,thefindingsdonotreflectlossesin

agro-industriesthatresultdirectlyfromagriculturalproductionlosses,suchasinthe

foodprocessingandtextileindustrieswhichdirectlydependonagriculturalinputs27.

Section1.3providesanoverviewofthewiderimpactofdisastersonagriculture,based

onothersourcesofdataandinformation.

Impact of disasters on the agriculture subsectors and natural resources

Impactofdisastersoncrops,livestock,fisheriesandforestryAcloseranalysiswasundertakenofthedamageandlossescausedbythe78disasters,

withrespecttoeachsubsector:crops,livestock,fisheriesandforestry28.Thefindings

showthatwithintheagriculturesector,thecropsubsectorabsorbsover42percentof

thetotaldamageandlossescausedbydisasters,whilethelivestocksubsectorsustains

nearly34percentofthetotaleconomicimpactwithinagriculture29.

Fisheriesabsorbabout5.5percentandforestryroughly2.3percentoftheimpact.

However,theimpactofnaturalhazardsonthesetwosubsectorswasnotalways

reportedintheassessmentsanalysed,sothesefindingslikelyunderestimatetheactual

economicimpactofdisastersonfisheriesandforestry.

Atthesametime,differenttypesofdisastershaveadifferentiatedimpactoneach

subsector,asillustratedinFigure 4,dependingontheirexposureandvulnerabilityor

theirrelativeimportancetonationalorlocaleconomiesandlivelihoods.

Forexample,cropstendtobemostaffectedbyfloodsandstorms;togetherthey

accountforanestimated93percentoftheeconomicimpactonthesubsector.

Livestockisoverwhelminglyaffectedbydroughts,causingnearly86percentofall

damageandlossestothesubsector.

OnestudyfoundthatninemajordroughtsinselectedAfricancountriesbetween

1981and2000resultedinaveragelivestocklossof40percent,witharange

of22–90percent30.InKenya,thelivestocksubsectorwasmostseverelyaffected

duringthe2008–2011drought,whichcausedUSD9billionindamageandlosses

duringthisperiod.Thedroughtdepletedpasturesandwater,especiallyinthearid

andsemi-aridlandareas,resultinginthedeteriorationoflivestockbodycondition

andreducedimmunity.Thistriggeredmassivemigrationoflivestocktootherregions

withbetterwatersources,andthecongregationofmigratingherdsledtoincreased

andwidespreaddiseaseoutbreaksinmostpartsofKenya.Livestockmortalityfrom

starvationanddiseaseaffected9percentoflivestock,whilediseaseincidencereached

morethan40percentofherdsintheaffecteddistricts.

27 Lossestoagriculture-dependentindustriesarenotdisaggregatedintheneedsassessmentsreviewedandcouldthereforenotbecalculatedintothedamageandlossestotheagriculturesector.

28 The78disastersanalysedcorrespondtothosereviewedintheprevioussection,andreferencedinAnnex3.Thedatareportedforthe“agriculturesector”combinesdamageandlossestocrops,livestock,fisheries,forestryandirrigationalthoughthesearereportedunderdifferent“sectors”intheassessments.

29 Thesefindingsshouldbeconsideredinviewoftheunder-reportingonthefisheriesandforestrysubsectorsintheassessmentsanalysed.

30 UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme.2009.TheEnvironmentalFoodCrisis:theEnvironment’sRoleinAvertingFutureFoodCrises.

1.2

Within the agriculture sector,

the crop subsector absorbs

over 42 percent of the total

damage and losses

caused by disasters,

while the livestock subsector

sustains nearly 36 percent

Earthquakes (4%)

Drought (84%)

Storms (18%)Floods (15%) Tsunamis (14%)

100%

0%

25%

50%

75%

Source:FAO,basedonneedsassessmentsreviewed

Figure 3. Damage and losses to the agriculture sector by type of hazard (percentage share of all sectors combined)

CHAPTERIThescopeofdisasterimpactonagriculture

14 15

Thishaschangedlivestockcompositionandusage,anddepressedlivestockproductivity.

Livestockmigrationandreducedproductivitycausedfoodinsecurity,lossofearnings,

separationoffamilies,schooldropouts,environmentaldegradationandresource-based

conflicts.Inaddition,highfoodpricesdeterioratedthepurchasingcapacityofhouseholds

andthetermsoftradeforpastoralists(50–60percentbelowthefive-yearaverage).

Inaridandsemi-aridlanddistricts,pastoralistsreportedcriticalratesofacute

malnutritioninchildren(globalacutemalnutrition>20percent),fallingwithintheWorld

HealthOrganizationemergencythreshold.In2011,some3.7millionpeoplewerefood

insecure–1.8millioninmarginalagriculturalareasand1.9millioninpastoralareas.

Thefisheriessubsectorismostaffectedbytsunamisandstormssuchashurricanes

andcyclones,whilemostoftheeconomicimpacttoforestryiscausedbyfloodsand

storms(excludingwildfires).Ofthe78disastersreviewed,the2004tsunamiaffecting

IndiaandIndonesiahadthegreatesteconomicimpactonfisheries,causingover

USD500millionindamageandlossestothesubsectorineachcountry.Fisheriesalso

tendtosuffermoreinsmallislanddevelopingstates.IntheMaldives,70percentofthe

economicimpactofthe2004tsunamiintheagriculturesectorwastofisheries,which

The fisheries subsector is

most affected by tsunamis

and storms such as

hurricanes and cyclones,

while most of the economic

impact to forestry is caused

by floods and storms

hadanenormousimpactonlivelihoodsandthenationaleconomy31.Thesubsector

(fisheriesandfishprocessing)contributedover9percenttonationalGDPin2004

andwasthesecondmajorsourceofforeignexchangeaftertourism.One-thirdofthe

annualcatchistypicallyconsumeddomestically,whilefishaccountedforalmosthalf

ofthecountry’sexports.Thesectoremployed11percentofthelabourforceandabout

20percentofthetotalpopulationreliesonfisheriesastheirmainincome-earning

activity.Fisheriesinfrastructureandassetsweredestroyedordamaged,including

fisheryislandharboursandsafeanchorage,boatsheds,fishingvessels,cottageand

commercialfishprocessorsandotherassets.Withinthefisheriessubsector,poleand

linetunaharvestingandsmall-scalefishprocessingweremostaffectedbythetsunami.

Inthecaseofforestry,biomassfireshaveasignificantimpact,burningannuallybetween

3and4.5millionkm2globally–anareaequivalenttoIndiaandPakistancombined–with

negativeconsequencesforthemultipleservicesthatforestsprovidetolocalecosystems

andthenaturalcapitalonwhichagriculturedepends.CycloneNargiswhichstruck

Myanmarin2008causedalmostUSD55millionindamageandlossestotheforestry

subsector.Thecyclonealsoimpactedothersubsectors.About2.4millionpeoplewere

affected,mainlyinthecountry’sAyeyarwadyRiverDeltawhere50–60percentoffamilies

areengagedinagricultureandbetween20and30percentarelandless,relyingonfishing

andagriculturallabour.Thecycloneaffectedpaddycropsandplantationcrops,and

causedthelossof50percentofbuffaloesand20percentofcattleintheworst-affected

townships.Overhalfofsmallricemillsandtwo-thirdsoflargerricemillsintheaffected

areasweredamaged.Commercialintensiveaquaculturewasaffectedbythedamageto

fisheriesinfrastructure,whileheavydamagetobothonshoreproductionfacilitiesand

fishingboatsaffectedtheproductionofdriedfishandshrimp,andfishpaste.Asaresult,

thecyclonehadacriticalimpactonlivelihoods,employmentandincome,particularlyin

theinformalsector,suchasseasonaljobsinagriculture,communityworks,small-scale

fishing,ricemills,fishprocessing,saltproduction,woodcutting,andotherresource-

basedeconomicactivities.

Smallholderfarmerslostincome-earningopportunities,asdidthoseinvolvedin

small-scaleinshoreandoffshorefishing,landlesspoordependentonwagelabour

inagricultureandskilledworkerspreviouslyemployedinawiderangeofsmalland

mediummanufacturingandprocessingenterprises.

Thesefindingsshowhowtheagriculturesubsectorscanbeaffecteddifferentlyby

disasters.Understandingthesedifferencesiscriticaltotheformulationofpolicyand

practicesatnational,subnationalandcommunitylevels.Measurestostrengthenthe

resilienceofmarinefisheries,forexample,needtoconsidertsunamisandstormswhich

tendtocausethegreatestimpact,whereasinlandfisheriesmustconsidertheimpact

offloodsanddroughts.Wildfiresanddrought(oftencombined)areimportanthazards

affectingforestry,whichrequirespecialattentioninriskreductionpoliciesandplanning.

Furthermore,disaggregatedsubsectoraldataondisasterimpactisneededtosupport

theimplementationofinnovativeriskmanagementtools,suchasweatherriskinsurance

schemesforagricultureandrurallivelihoods.Systematicandcoherentdataavailability

willfacilitatethedesignofinsuranceschemeswhichwouldhelptofurtherdiversifyrisk

mitigationstrategies.

Anotherconsiderationisthepotentialcontributionthatthesubsectorscanmakein

post-disastersituations,dependingontherelativeimpactoneach.Forinstance,capture

fisheriescanberestoredrelativelyquicklyafteradisaster(providedthatnoserious

damagehasbeencausedtotheaquaticenvironment)andmaybeabletoprovide

alternativelivelihoodstoaffectedpopulationsduringtherecoveryphase.Assessmentsof

disasterimpactoneachofthesubsectorswillvaryatcountryandsubnationallevels,and

31 RepublicoftheMaldives,WorldBank,AsianDevelopmentBank,UnitedNations.2005.JointNeedsAssessment.

Cyclone Nargis, which struck

Myanmar in 2008,

had the greatest economic

impact on forestry of all

the agriculture subsectors

1. Crops: damage and loss to crops by type of hazard (percentageshare)

2. Livestock: damage and loss to livestock by type of hazard (percentageshare)

3. Fisheries: damage and loss to fisheries by type of hazard (percentageshare)

4. Forestry: damage and loss to forestry by type of hazard (percentageshare)

Legend: Storms Floods Drought Tsunamis Earthquakes

14.6%

1.6%

0.7

%

25.4

%

57.7%85.4

%

3.7%2.

3%

8.4%

0.2

%

68.9%

0.4

%

18.1%

9.6%

3%

2.7%

3.2%5%

89.1%

Figure 4. Damage and losses to agriculture subsectors by type of hazard Source:FAO,basedonneedsassessments(seeAnnex3).

Percentage share of damage and losses by sector(2007 floods in Tabasco, Mexico)

Damage and losses by agriculture subsector (USD) (2007 Floods in Tabasco, Mexico)

800,000,000

700,000,000

600,000,000

500,000,000

400,000,000

300,000,000

200,000,000

100,000,000

0

681,347,859

70,322,705 63,084,545796,106

Infra

structu

re

18%

Agriculture

28%

Housing,health,

education,culture

19%

Envi

ronm

ent

1%

Commerce,industry,

construction,

services,tourism34%

Case study The 2007 floods in Tabasco, Mexico: the impact on the agriculture sector and subsectors

InSeptemberandOctober2007,Mexicowasstruckbyheavyrainfallcausingseriousflooding.Theimpactwas

especiallysevereinthestateofTabascowith60%ofitssurfacefloodedand1.5millionofitspopulationaffected

(75%ofthestate’spopulation).

The floods caused roughly USD 3 billion in damage and losses in Tabasco, equivalent to over 29% of the state’s GDP.

About 28% of the total economic impact was on the agriculture sector.

The damage and losses caused by the floods on all sectors, on agriculture and on its subsectors

Crops Livestock Fisheries Forestry

The impact of floods

The floods damaged or destroyed a

total of 93,319 ha and

1.6 million tonnes of crops,

includingmaize,rice,cacao,sugar

caneandplantain,amongothers.

Maize production was reduced

by 40–80%. Maize losses were

a serious impact on household

food security since 85% of maize

production is for consumptionand

isabasicstapleamongthelocal

population,particularyforpoor

households.

Thefloodsdestroyed383,000tonnes

ofplantains,damagingordestroying

roughly65%oftheareaplanted.

About97%ofthecacaoplantedwas

damagedordestroyed.

About80%oftheareaplanted

withsugarcanewasdestroyed

ordamaged,causingthelossof

27,000jobs.

The floods affected about

32% of grazing pastures,

roughlyabout504,000ha,

and killed over 21,000 heads

of livestock, resultingin

asignificantreductionin

meatandmilkproduction.

Inaddition, 14,562 poultry

and over 2,000 pigs perished

orwereconsumedbythe

affectedpopulation,causinga

collapseinhouseholdbackyard

production.

The floods destroyed fishing

and aquaculture infrastructure

andfacilities,suchasfish

farms,oysterbanks,fishfeed

andfishreproductionfacilities.

Therewerelosses in fish and

aquaculture productionof

robalo,tilapia,carb,shrimp,

oysterandothercrustaceans

andfishspecies.Over

477,000 tonnes of fish were lost.

The floods affected over

1,000 ha of forests, andabout

366hahadtobereforested

withover244,000plants.In

addition, 687 ha of eucalyptus

and 1.3 million nursery plants

were damaged.

Crops Livestock Fisheries Forestry

17

investmentstoreduceriskandbuildresilienceinthesesubsectorsshouldbeinformedby

theparticularnatureofdisasterimpactonthatsubsector.Yet,forestryandfisheriestendtobeunder-reportedinneedsassessmentsandtheimpact

ofdisastersonthesemustbebetterassessedandunderstood.

Thedirectdamageandindirectlossesoffloodstothesubsectorsisillustratedinmore

detailinthecasestudyonthe2007floodsintheTabascoregionofMexico.

ImpactofdisastersonnaturalresourcesandecosystemservicesDisastersalsodamageordestroynaturalresourcesandecosystemservicesthat

sustainagriculture.Land,waterandbiologicaldiversityformthenaturalresourcebase

ofagriculture,essentialtorurallivelihoodsandsustainableagriculturaldevelopment.

Forexample,forestsandtree-basedagriculturalsystemscontributetothelivelihoods

ofanestimated1billionpeopleglobally32.Wildfoodsareimportantforfoodsecurity

andnutrition,whiletreesandforestsarevitalintheprovisionofecosystemservicesto

agriculture.Marine,coastalandinlandareasalsosupportarichassortmentofaquatic

biodiversity.Theplanetalreadyfacesmultiplepressures,includingonfragilesoils,

watersupplies,competingdemandsforland,overfishingandotherpressures,

andtheimpactofdisastersfurthererodesthisvitalresourcebaseforagriculture

andlivelihoods.

Disasters contribute to ecosystem degradation and loss, including increased soil

erosion, declining rangeland quality, salinization of soils, deforestation and biodiversity

loss.Increasingenvironmentaldegradationreducestheavailabilityofgoodsand

servicestolocalcommunities,shrinkseconomicopportunitiesandlivelihoodoptions,

andultimatelycontributestogreaterfoodinsecurityandhunger.Itfurtherdrives

increasingnumbersofpeopletousemarginallandsandfragileenvironments33.

Yet,theimpactofdisastersonnaturalresourcesandtheenvironmentisnotalways

evaluatedinneedsassessmentsandremainsalargelyunder-assessedsector,interms

ofdirectandindirecteconomiclosses.However,sometrendscanbeobservedfrom

the78disastersreviewed,whichshowthat43ofthesedisastersaffectednatural

resourcesandtheenvironment,causingoverUSD2.3billionindamageandlosses34.

In2007,HurricaneFelixinNicaraguacausedatotalofUSD552millionindamage

andlossestonaturalresourcesandtheenvironment,inadditiontoUSD57millionin

damageandlossestotheagriculturesector.TropicalStormAgathaandthevolcanic

eruptionofPacayain2010inGuatemalaalsohadaconsiderableimpactonthesector,

causingUSD260millionindamageandlosses.

Atthesametime,thedeforestationcausedbydisastersandtheirdegradationof

land,catchmentsandwatersheds,depletionofreefsandcoastalecosystemssuch

ascoralsandmangroves,reducenature’sdefensecapacityagainstfuturehazards35.

Forestsserveasshelterbeltsandwindbreaks,andprotectagainstlandslides,floods

andavalanches 36.Treesstabilizeriverbanksandmitigatesoilerosion,whilewoodlots

providefuelwood,timberandfodder.Forestsareestimatedtosavebetween

USD2billionandUSD3.5billionperyearequivalentindisasterdamagerestoration

ofkeyforestecosystems37.

32 CenterforInternationalForestryResearch.2013.FoodSecurityandNutrition:theRoleofForests.33 FAO.2013.Resilientlivelihoods.DisasterRiskReductionforFoodandNutritionSecurity;UNISDR,2004,

LivingwithRisk:aGlobalReviewofDisasterReductionInitiatives.34 Thedamageandlossesreportedtonaturalresourcesandtheenvironmentalsoincludesforestry.35 FAO.2013.Resilientlivelihoods.DisasterRiskReductionforFoodandNutritionSecurity;UNISDR,2004,

LivingwithRisk:aGlobalReviewofDisasterReductionInitiatives.36 D.Burgeon,T.Hofer,P.vanLieropandS.Wabbes.2015.Treesandforests–lifelinesforresilience.FAO,

Unasylva66(1-2),pp.86–89.37 InternationalUnionfortheConservationofNature(IUCN),UNISDR.2009.EnvironmentalGuidanceNote

forDisasterRiskReduction:HealthyEcosystemsforHumanSecurity.2009.IUCN,UNISDR.

Of the 78 disasters

covered in PDNAs,

43 caused a total of

over USD 2.3 billion

in damage and losses

to natural resources

and the environment

19

Wider and cumulative impact of disasters

Assessmentsoftheimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesectorapplydifferent

approachesandmethodologies.Somefocusontheeconomicimpact,suchas

theneedsassessmentsreviewedintheprevioussectionswhichevaluatedamage

andlosses.However,thesedonotassessthecascadingandwiderimpactthat

disastershaveonthefoodvaluechain,agro-industriesandsectorgrowth,orcapture

theimplicationsforlivelihoodsandfoodsecurity.Someassessmentsdofollowa

livelihoodsapproachorfocusonfoodsecurity38.Theseandothertypesofassessments

representdifferentanalyticallensesthroughwhichwecanmeasureimpact,yielding

38 Forexample,themethodologiesproposedinthejointFAO/InternationalLabourOrganizationLivelihoodAssessmentToolkit,ortheEmergencyFoodSecurityAssessmentHandbookbytheWorldFoodProgramme.

1.3 differentresults.Theapproachesandfindingstheyproducearecomplementary;

togethertheypresentaholisticpictureofdisasterimpactonagricultureanditsbroader

consequences.

Figure 5summarizesthewiderimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesectorasawhole

anditspotentialconsequences,groupedintofivecorecategories:

Ú Directphysicaldamage

Ú Lossesacrossthefoodvaluechain(backward-forwardlinkages)

Ú Lossestomanufacturing(agro-industries)

Ú Consequentmacro-economicimpact

Ú Impactonlivelihoods,foodsecurityandnutrition

Ú Effectonsustainabledevelopment

Thissectionpresentsanoverviewofthebroaderimpactbasedoncasestudies.

Thephysicaldamagecausedbydisastershasadirectimpactonagriculturalproduction

withnegativeconsequencesalongthefoodvaluechain,includingbackwardlinkages

–disruptingtheflowofagriculturalinputssuchasseedsandfertilizers–andforward

linkageswithprocessinganddistribution,marketsandretailers.Disasterscandestroy

theinfrastructureofinputsuppliersandpost-harvestfacilities.Theycaninterruptfood

supply,marketaccessandtrade.Inmedium-andlarge-scaledisasters,highproduction

lossescanleadtoincreasesinimportsoffoodandagriculturalcommoditiesto

compensateforlostproductionandmeetdomesticdemand,increasingpublic

expenditure.Theycanalsoreduceexportsandrevenues,withnegativeconsequences

forthebalanceofpayment.Whenpost-disasterproductionlossesaresignificantand

incountrieswherethesectormakesanimportantcontributiontoeconomicgrowth,

agriculturevalue-addedorsectorgrowthfalls,asdoesnationalGDP.

Inaddition,theagriculturesectorsuppliesvitalresourcestoindustryandstimulates

thegrowthofsomemanufacturingsubsectors.Therefore,agriculturalproduction

lossescanreducemanufacturing/industrialoutputinsectorsthatdependon

agricultureandrawmaterials.Agro-industriessuchasfoodprocessingareparticularly

vulnerable.Insomecases,non-foodagro-industries,suchasthetextileindustry,can

alsobenegativelyaffectedbyproductionlosses.Suchagro-industries(bothfoodand

non-food)willsufferfromlossesinproductionaswell,withsimilarconsequencesfor

domesticsupplies,exports,nationalrevenuesandultimatelymanufacturingvalue

added.Theinter-dependencebetweenagricultureandindustryisimportanttothe

economiesofleastdevelopedcountrieswhereagro-industrialsectorsaccountfor

two-thirdsofthemanufacturingoutput.Theshareofagro-industrialsectorsintotal

manufacturingvalueaddedis70percentinUnitedRepublicofTanzania,51percent

inEthiopia,35percentinKenya,29percentinMexicoand20percentinIndia39.

Atthesametime,disastersdirectlyimpactonagriculturallivelihoods,foodsecurity

andnutrition.Disasterscancauseunemploymentand/oradeclineinwagesand

thereforeincomeamongfarmersandfarmlabourers,andlowertheavailabilityoffood

commoditiesinlocalmarketswhichtypicallyproducesfoodinflation.Suchpressures

reducethepurchasingcapacityofhouseholds,restrictaccesstofood,depletesavings,

forcethesaleofvitalproductiveassets,increaseindebtednessanderodelivelihoods.

Ultimately,thequantityandqualityoffoodconsumptionisreduced,andfoodinsecurity

andmalnutritionincreases,particularlyamongthemostvulnerablehouseholds.This

impactismostfeltatthelocalandhouseholdlevelsindisaster-affectedareas.

39 Dataisfor2009,fromtheUnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganization.2012.Thestructureandgrowthpatternofagro-industryofAfricancountries.

Disasters cause direct and

indirect losses – with serious

repercussions on future

harvests, agriculture-related

manufacturing and

industrial outputs

Figure 5: The impact of disasters on the agriculture sector and its wider potential consequences

Lossesinthemanufacturingsector,particularlyfoodandnon-foodagro-industries,suchasfoodprocessingandtextiles.

Lossesinproduction(crops,livestock,fishery,forestry)Lossesinecosystemservices

Erosionoflivelihoods,increasedfoodinsecurityandmalnutrition

Direct physical damage

Deteriorationofcountry’sbalanceofpayments,and

increasedborrowing

Losses to manufacturing(agro-industries)

Damagetoagriculturalinfrastructure(irrigation,

storagefacilities,livestockshelters,fishingvessels,etc.)

Damagetosuppliersofagriculturalinputsto

financialandbusinessservicestothesector

Damagetotransportandcommunication

suchasfarmaccessroads

Damagetoforestsandothernatural

resourcesthatsupportagriculture

Losses across the food value chain(backward-forward linkages) Impact on livelihoods, food security and nutrition

Damagetoassets,suchascrops,grainreserves

andseedstocks,livestockmortality,etc.

Lossestosuppliersofinputs,andlowersales/supplyofagricultural

inputs(seedsfertilizers,feed,tools,etc.)

Disruptionoffinancialandbusinessservicestoagriculture(credit,

farmschools,etc.)

Lowersupplyoffoodandagriculturalcommoditiesto

processors,traders,markets,wholesalers

andretailers

Foodinflation

Reducedfoodconsumptionand

dietaryquality

Increasedindebtedness

Increasedhouseholdexpenditure

Incomelossandlowerpurchasingpower

forretailers

Weaksocialsupportnetworksforretailers

Loweravailabilityandaccesstofood

UnemploymentDisruptionoffarmer

organizationsandsocialnetworks

The macro-economic impact The effect on sustainable development

DropinnationalGDP

Increasedimportsoffood,

agriculturalcommodities,

inputs,andreliefitems,increasing

expenditures

Lowerexportsofagriculturalcommodities

andagro-industrialgoods,decreasingexport

earnings

Reducedagriculturesector

growth(%ofGDP)

Reducedmanufacturingsectorgrowth(%ofGDP)

Compromisesthecapacitytomeetglobalcommitmentstoachievesustainabledevelopmentgoals,particularlySDG2whichstrivesto“Endhunger,achievefoodsecurityandimprovednutrition,

andpromotesustainableagriculture”

Stuntsnationalsectorgrowth

andsustainableagricultural

development

Arrestsnationaleconomicgrowth

andprosperity

Limitsnationalcapacitytoeradicate

hunger,foodinsecurityandpoverty

Agriculture, livestock

and fisheries (50%)

Irrigation and

flood management (2%)

Governance (1%)

Com

mer

ce, i

ndus

try

and

finan

ce (

9%)

Education (3%)

Health (1%)

Housing (19%)

Energy (2%)

Water and sanitation (1%)

Transp

ort

and co

mm

unicatio

ns (12

%)

20

Theextenttowhichdisasterserodelivelihoods,producefoodinsecurity,causedisruptions

alongthefoodvaluechain,reducemanufacturingoutputandlowersectorgrowthand

nationalGDPvariesdependingonnumerousfactorsbeyondthestudy’sscope.

Suchfactorsincludethenature,locationandscaleofthedisaster;itstiminginrelation

totheagriculturalcalendar;thesizeandcompositionoftheagriculturesector;its

relativeimportancetoemployment,income,manufacturingandnationalGDP;the

vulnerabilityofthesectorandaffectedpopulationstoshocks;andtheemergency

policiesormeasuresintroducedbygovernmentstomitigatetheimpactofdisasters.

Insub-SaharanAfrica,forexample,droughtscausesignificantdamageandlossesto

agriculture.InUganda,the2005–2007droughtand2010–2011rainfalldeficitshad

far-reachingimpactsonthenationaleconomy,causingproductionlossesespeciallyfor

thelivestocksubsector,reducingexports,affectingagro-industriesandslowingtheGDP

growthrate.(SeeSection3.2forfurtherdetailontheeffectsofdroughtinUganda.)

ThefollowingcasestudyonfloodsinPakistanisanotherexampleofhowandtowhatextent

theimpactofdisastersonagriculturalproductionhasacarry-overeffectontheeconomyand

foodsecurity.

Case study: The Pakistan floods in 2010 – the wider impact on agriculture, the value chain and the economya

Agriculturewasthehardesthitsector.Alarge

portionofPakistan’smostfertilelandwasaffected,

includingthebreadbasketprovinceofPunjab.

Thesectorcontributesabout45%oftotal

employmentandwasthebasicsourceof

livelihoodfor80%oftheaffectedpopulation.

About4.5millionworkerswereaffected,

two-thirdsofwhomwereemployedinagriculture.

Over70percentoffarmerslostmorethanhalf

oftheirexpectedincome.

ThefloodscausedUSD10billionindamageand

losses–USD 5 billion to the agriculture sector.

Bycontrast,justUSD200millionwasallocated

tothecountry’sagriculturesectorinthe2014/15

nationalbudgetb.

Decrease in production and increase in imports of rice (USD)

Damage and losses to each sector, percentage share of total

The performance of agriculture added value and national GDP, 2006–2012

PakistanexperiencedextraordinaryrainfallfromJulytoSeptember2010,resultinginunprecedentedfloods

affectingtheentirelengthofthecountryandmorethan20millionpeople–overone-tenthofthepopulation.

About2.4millionhaofunharvestedcrops

werelostduetothefloods,mainlycotton,

rice,sugarcaneandvegetables,aswellas

1milliontonnesoffoodandseedstocks.

Thisnegativelyaffectedcottonginning,rice

processingandflourandsugarmilling.

Riceproduction–thesecondlargeststaple

foodcropinPakistan–fellto7.2million

tonnesin2010from10.3milliontonnes

in2009,andriceimportssurgedfrom

1,925tonnesin2010to21,052tonnesin2011.

12 million

10 million

8 million

6 million

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

201120102009200820072006

Production

Imports

Pakistan’sforeignexchangereservesdependonexports,about75%ofwhicharefromagricultureandtextiles.The

potentiallynegativeimpactoflostcottonproductiononthetextileindustrywasoffsetbyasurgeinglobalcottonprices

thatprovidedunprecedentedhighexportprices,inducedproductionandincreasedearningsfromtextileexports.

Followingthefloods,agriculturesectorgrowthdroppedfrom3.5%in2009to0.2%in2010and1.9%in2011.National

GDPfellfrom2.8%in2009to1.6%in2010.InPakistan,agriculturecontributesabout24%ofGDP.Thegraphbelow

showsthestrongcorrelationbetweenagricultureandGDPgrowth.

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0

2012201120102009200820072006

LegendGDPannualgrowth(%)

Agriculturevalue-added

annualgrowth(%)

a Source:FAO,basedonAsianDevelopmentBank,WorldBankandUnitedNations.2010.PakistanFloods2010:PreliminaryDamageandNeedsAssessment;PakistanCongressionalResearchService.2010.FloodinginPakistan:OverviewandIssuesforCongress;GovernmentofPakistan.2011.PakistanEconomicSurvey:2010-2011.FAO.2011.Pakistanfloods:oneyearon;FAOSTAT.

b GovernmentofPakistan,FederalBudget2014/15.http://www.finance.gov.pk/budget/Budget_in_Brief_2014_15.pdfCHAPTERIThescopeofdisasterimpactonagriculture

PAKISTAN 2010 floods: The impact on the food value chain, manufacturing, the economy and food security

Source:FAO,basedonStateBankofPakistan.2011.TheStateofPakistan’sEconomy:AnnualReport2010–2011;PakistanCongressionalResearchService.2010.

FloodinginPakistan:OverviewandIssuesforCongress;FAO.2011.Pakistanfloods:oneyearon;AgricultureCluster.2010.PreliminaryRapidDamageAssessmentinthe

AgricultureSectorforFlood-AffectedAreasofPakistan;FAO.2010.ExecutiveBrief:PakistanFlooding;AsianDevelopmentBank,WorldBankandUnitedNations.2010.PakistanFloods2010:PreliminaryDamageandNeedsAssessment;ArshadAli,etal.Perspectivesonthe2010floodsinPakistan;WorldFoodProgramme.2010.

PakistanFloodImpactAssessment.

Cropsabsorbednearly90%ofthedamageand

lossesinagriculture.

Over2millionhaofstandingcropswerelost,

mainlycotton,rice,sugarcaneandvegetables.

1milliontonnesoffoodandseedstocks

weredamaged.

PRE-PRODUCTION DAMAGE AND LOSSES POST-PRODUCTION LOSSES LOSSES TO THE WIDER NATIONAL ECONOMY

FOOD AND NUTRITION INSECURITY

Livestock:About1.5millionanimalsand

10millionpoultrywerelost.

Milkproductiondeclined.

Fisheries:Fishfarms,fishponds,hatcheries,

boatsandgearwerewashedawayordamaged.

Agriculture infrastructurewasdamaged

includingmachinery,warehouses,irrigation

systems,animalhealthclinics,agricultureand

livestockresearchandextensionofficesand

governmentbuildingsandfacilities.

Enterprises:Floodsdamagedmicro-,smalland

mediumenterprises,suchascottonginning,

riceprocessing,flourandsugarmilling,silkand

horticulture.

Environment and ecosystem services:Floods

damagedordestroyedtrees,forestsandforest

lands,plantations,forestnurseries,mangroves,

wetlands,wildliferesourcesandothernatural

assetsthatsustainagricultureandlivelihoods.

Manufacturing/industry

Mainindustriesaffectedwerecottonginning,rice

processing,andflourandsugarmilling.

Acuteinputshortagesinthetextilesectorduetoloss

of2–3millionbalesofcotton.Textilesprovideabout

one-thirdofmanufacturingsectorvalueadded.

Losstosugarcanecropwouldaffectoutputofthe

sugarindustry.Milk,meat,fruit,packagingand

preparingunitsalsoaffected.

Markets

Accesstomarketsdisruptedbydamagedroadand

railnetworks.

Disruptionsandlossofstoredfoodandagricultural

inputsdecreasedthecapacityofoperatorsalongthe

valuechain(transporters,processors,wholesalers

andretailers),raisedtransactioncostsandreduced

marketfunctionalityandtheavailabilityoffood.

National GDPfellfrom2.8%to1.6%between

2009and2010.

Financial sector:Bankingabsorbed93%ofthe

USD1billioninloanlosses.Largestshareofloan

losseswastotheagriculturesectorat55%.Within

themicro-financesector,agriculturerepresented

about69%ofallnon-performingloans.

Agriculture sector growthfellto0.2%in2010

from3.5%in2009.

Shortfalls in domestic availability of food

and agricultural commodities–over60%of

householdslostmuchoftheirfoodgrainstocks,

55%lostatleasthalftheirseedstocks.

Imports:Riceimportsincreasedfrom1,925to

21,052tonnesbetween2010and2011,andcotton

from25to3,361tonnesbetween2009and2010.

Inflation:Foodinflationsurgedto20%by

September2010from12%inJuly.

Income loss:Over70%offarmerslostmorethan

50%oftheirexpectedincome.

Unemployment:4.5millionworkerswereaffected;

two-thirdswereemployedinagriculture.

Fiscal deficit: Significantincreaseinfederaland

provincialgovernmentexpenditures.

Thewideningfiscaldeficitwaslargelyfinanced

throughshort-termborrowing.

Food consumption:Dietarydiversitywaspoor;

almostone-thirdofthepopulationhadpoor

consumptionintakeand19%wereborderline.

Damage and losses:Thefloodscausedover

USD5billionindamageandlosstothe

agriculturesector,about14%ofthesectorvalue

addedin2009–2010.

Indebtedness:Farmers’debtdoubledortripled,

forcingthemtoseekfurtherloanstobuy

agriculturalinputsandfood.Morethanone-third

ofhouseholdswereborrowing.

Recovery cost:Estimatesforagriculture

sectorpost-disasterrecoveryrangedfrom

USD257milliontoUSD1billion.

Poverty:Householdswhoselivelihoodsweremost

affectedhadthelowestincomelevels–ofthose

whoseincomefellby75%ormore,45%lived

belowthenationalpovertyline.

22 23CHAPTERIThescopeofdisasterimpactonagriculture

24 25

Case study: The impact of recurring disasters on the agriculture sector in the Philippines, Pakistan and Tabasco, Mexico

+ $1.94 B

= $8 Billion

+ $5.31 B

+ $355.4 M

$336.5 M

Floods 2011

Floods 2010

Earthquake 2005Cyclone/Floods 2007

+ $215 M

= $1.2 Billion

$735 M

+ $163 M

+ $112 M

+ $32 M

75 disasters US$3.8 billion

Between 2006 and 2013, the Philippines was struck by 75 disasters – mostly typhoons, tropical storms

and floods – which caused accumulated damage and losses of some USD 3.8 billion to the country’s agriculture sector. In other words, the country’s agriculture sector absorbed

an average of USD 477 million in damage and losses each year – about one-quarter of the national budget

allocated to the sector in 2014

The PhilippinesÜ

2005 earthquake a cyclone combined with floods in 2007

floods in 2010 and in 2011

US$8 billion

The agriculture sector was affected by all four consecutive disasters, which together caused

nearly US$8 billion in accumulated damage and losses. This is four times what the government

of Pakistan spent on the agriculture sector between 2008 and 2011

5 flood events between 2007 and 2011

US$1.2 billion

By 2011 the state’s agriculture sector had sustained a total of over US$1.2 billion in accumulated damage and losses as a result of the five consecutive floods.

This is a large loss for Tabasco, as it represents more than twice the state’s agriculture GDP in 2012

Pakistan

Tabasco, Mexico

Ü

Ü

+ $804 M

= $3.8 Billion

+ $750 M

+ $528 M

+ $209 M

+ $734 M

+ $369 M

+ $112 M

$268 M

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2011

2007

2008

2009

2010

Detailed, disaggregated information on the impact of disasters is necessary to better

understand and counteract the particular way in which the agriculture sector is affected,

and ultimately it is needed to inform the adoption of policies that help protect sector

development plans and investments from shocks and crises, and strengthen the

sector’s resilience. The fact that disasters do not affect all peoples and sectors in the

same way, nor to the same extent, has important policy implications. For example,

as the present study will illustrate, droughts have a high impact on agriculture while

infrastructure such as roads and housing is more affected by earthquakes. There are

also important differences across developing regions.

Sector–specific quantitative data on damage and losses is necessary to understand

the breadth and scope of disaster impact on agriculture and livelihoods, and to design

appropriate measures to counteract their impact. The adoption of national agricultural

policies that strive to strengthen the sector’s resilience needs to be informed by a clear

understanding of the way in which disasters impact on crop, livestock, fisheries or

forestry production, the specific hazards which produce the greatest damage and loss

to agriculture, or the manner and extent to which they arrest sector economic growth. It

requires an understanding of how disasters compromise a country’s national goals to

achieve sustainable agricultural growth and development, to reduce hunger and poverty,

and to achieve its targets under relevant international commitments.

This is particularly crucial in countries where the sector makes a significant contribution

to national GDP. Agriculture contributes as much as 30 percent of national GDP in

Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Nepal, Niger and Mozambique

among others. Similarly, efforts to reduce hunger and food insecurity are much more

difficult to achieve in countries where the sector provides a high percentage share of

total employment and where disasters are reoccurring events, such as in Bangladesh,

Haiti, Lao PDR, Nepal and Uganda where it ranges from 48 to 67 percent, and in

Ethiopia, Mozambique and Chad where it is over 79 percent.

Globally available statistics on the economic impact of disasters, however, do not

disaggregate the impact on all individual sectors. Even though most countries do

conduct needs assessments in the aftermath of most disasters and while some

countries have national disaster loss databases, most of the existing national and

international databases typically report populations affected and damage to housing

and other infrastructure, but seldom report damage and losses in the agriculture sector.

Data on disaster impacts in agricultural at subnational level is basically non available or

not systematized at all.

The lack of global data is largely because the impact of disasters is not being collected

and reported in a systematic way by sector at country level. An additional challenge

is that existing databases and needs assessments do not share a common method

for assessing the impact of disasters. For the agriculture sector, measures to assess

disaster impact tend to focus on the physical damage to crops or livestock and/or

on livelihoods and food security. Yet, as the findings of this study reveal, the direct

damage to crops and livestock is only one dimension of disaster impact on the

sector, other consequences include losses in production and productivity resulting in

additional losses across the agriculture value chain, on sector economic growth and

consequently on national economies. In addition, sub-sectors such as fisheries and

forestry are often under-reported, as is a detailed assessment of losses by commodities.

As a consequence the ultimate impact on hunger and poverty is not captured. As a

result, there is limited understanding of the extent and ways in which different types of

disasters impact the agriculture sector and its sub–sectors in developing countries.

Almost two-third of total

declines in exports after

disasters occurred in Asian

countries

Decreases in exports of

cereals, pulses, milk and meat

amounted to nearly US$ 7

billion, or 5.7 percent of the

expected value of exports

8 PART I Quantifying the losses caused by disasters over the past decade

ÜÜ

Ü

in damage and losses accumulated

in damage and losses accumulated

in damage and losses accumulated

Inmanycountries,disastersarefrequenteventsthatovertimeincurahigheconomic

costintotaldamageandlosses,aswellasinrepeatedinvestmentsinrecoveryby

governmentsandtheinternationalcommunity.Asignificantnumberofdeveloping

countriesexperiencerecurringdisasters.Overthelastdecade,morethanone-thirdof

alldevelopingcountrieshavebeenaffectedbyatleastthreemedium-andlarge-scale

disasters.ThemostaffectedcountrieswereEthiopia,whichfacedsixreported

droughts40,andIndiawithsixreportedfloods41.Thecumulativeimpactofseveral

disastersontheagriculturesectorisillustratedbytheexamplesfromthePhilippines,

PakistanandMexico.

Thischapterillustratesthewiderandcomplexnatureofdisasterimpactonthe

agriculturesector,theseverityofresultingdamageandlosses,andthehighcumulative

costsarisingfromfrequentdisastersinsomecountries.ChapterIIIprovidesadditional

examplesofthewiderimpactofdroughtintheHornofAfrica(Djibouti,Kenyaand

Uganda)andsouthernAfrica(SouthAfricaandZimbabwe).Theagriculturesector’s

actualvulnerabilitytosuchshocksvariesbetweencountries.Itisthereforecriticalto

betterunderstandthesedifferencesintermsofthebroaderimpactofdisastersonthe

sector.Animportantelementinthefindingsofthestudyisthelimitedinformation

availableontheimpactofdisastersacrosstheagriculturalvaluechainandits

consequencesonagro-industries,sectorgrowth,agriculturaldevelopmentand

nationaleconomies.

Oneimportantelementnottypicallyconsideredintheanalysisofdisasterimpacton

theagriculturesectoristheconsequencesonothersectorsthatarecloselylinkedand

dependonagriculture,suchasfoodandnon-foodagro-industries.Thisneedstobe

betterassessedandunderstoodgiventhattheyaccountforthebulkofmanufacturing

outputinmanyless-developedcountries.Understandingthefullramificationsof

disastersisessentialforcountriestoformulatewell-designedandtailoredstrategies

thatcaneffectivelybufferormitigatethehighcosttonationaleconomicgrowth.

Theexamplesinthischapterhighlighttheneedtoadoptsystemicriskreduction

measureswithintheagriculturesectoranditssubsectors,aswellasacross

interdependentsectors.Inparticular,disasterriskreductionprinciplesandmeasures

needtobeembeddedinnationaldevelopmentplansfortheagriculturesector.

Similarly,longer-termandsector-specificstrategiesshouldguidepost-disaster

recoveryeffortsinagricultureinordertostrengthenresilienceandavoidrecreating

vulnerabilitiesandrisks.Thisisparticularlycrucialincountrieswheretheagriculture

sectorisrepeatedlyaffectedbyrecurringdisasters.

Tomeasureattheaggregategloballeveltheextenttowhichdisastershaveawider

impact,astatisticalanalysiswasdoneof140disastersin67developingcountries

todeterminehowdisastersareassociatedwithchangesintradeflows(importsand

exports),andwiththeperformanceofagriculturevalueadded(percentofGDP).

Thefindingsarepresentedinthenextchapter.

40 SeveredroughtsoccurredinEthiopiain2003,2005,2008,2009,2011and2012.41 MajorfloodsoccurredinIndiain2004,2005,2007,2008,2011and2013.

Over the last decade,

more than one-third of all

developing countries have

been affected by at least

three medium- and

large-scale disasters

The study revealed the

limited information available

on the impact of disasters

across the agricultural value

chain and its effect on

agro-industries,

sector growth

and development

and national economies

CHAPTERIThescopeofdisasterimpactonagriculture

26 27

Between 2003 and 2013, crop and livestock production losses after medium- and large-scale disasters in developing countries amounted to more than USD 80 billion

Asia suffered the largest share of total production losses, followed by Africa

Indonesia2005tsunamiDestructionofhomesandagriculturallandinAceh

Quantifyingproductionlosses,changesintradeflowsandsectorgrowthafterdisastersoverthepastdecade

Dataondamageandlossesintheagriculturesector

arenotsystematicallycollectedorreportedworldwide.

Thischapterisanattempttoquantifycropandlivestock

productionlossesassociatedwithdisastersover

thepastdecadeindevelopingcountries

Chapter II

In developing countries, 83 percent of crop and livestock production losses occurred after floods and droughts

©FA

O/J

imH

olm

es

28 29

Annex5providesfurtherdetailsonthemethodologyused.Thefindingsarepresented

accordingtodifferentperspectives,includingthedistributionoflossesbygeographic

region,bytypeofdisasterandbytypeofcommodity.

Crop and livestock production losses after disasters over the past decade

QuantifyingcropandlivestockproductionlossesAnanalysisofcropandlivestockproductiontrendsrevealssignificantlossesassociated

withthemedium-andlarge-scaledisastersreviewed.The67countriesanalysed

togetherfacedatotalofUSD80billionincropandlivestockproductionlossesafter

the140medium-tolarge-scaledisastersassessedbetween2003and2013,oran

averageofUSD7.3billionperyear.Theselossesweresufferedbycountriesthatderive

asubstantialshareofGDPfromtheagriculturesector(anaverageof21percent

between2003and2013),andwhereagriculturecontributesanaverageof30percent

oftotalemployment.

Mostcropandlivestockproductionlossesoccurredafterfloodsanddroughts,which

togetheraccountfor83percentoftotallosses.Thisprovidesfurtherevidencethat

climate-relateddisastershaveaconsiderableimpactonagriculture,aspresentedin

ChapterI.Addressingtheunderlyingrisksassociatedwithdroughtsandfloodsin

developingcountriesisthereforecrucialtostrengthentheresilienceofagricultureand

protectassociatedlivelihoodsfromshocks.

Theregionaldistributionoflossesprovidesadditionalinsightsastotheextentof

productionlossesassociatedwithdisastersonageographicbasisandinrelationtothe

maintypesofdisasters.Whileabsolutelossesareimportanttounderstandtheoverall

reductionincropandlivestockproduction,meaningfulcross-regionalcomparisonis

possibleonlyinrelativetermswhenconsideringlossesinrelationtotheoverallsize

andvalueofagriculturalproductionineachregion.

InAsia,forexample,productionlossesamountedtoroughlyUSD48billion,

correspondingtoabout60percentoftotallossesinalldevelopingregions.Themost

significantlossesinAsiawereexperiencedafterfloods,whichareassociatedwith

77percentoftheregion’slosses.AlthoughAsiasufferedthelargestabsoluteamount

ofproductionlosses,itwastheleastaffectedregionwhenlossesareplacedinrelation

totheprojectedvalueofproduction49(Figure 6).Whenconsideredatcountrylevel,

thefindingsshowthatIndiawasthemostaffectedbycropandlivestockproduction

lossesafterrepeatedfloodsbetween2004and2013.OtherparticularlyaffectedAsian

countriesincludethePhilippines(e.g.2012Bophaand2013HaiyanTyphoons),

Pakistan(e.g.2010floods),Cambodia(e.g.2005drought)andThailand

(e.g.2008drought).

InAfrica,absolutelossesamountedtomorethanUSD14billion,correspondingto

about6percentoftheprojectedvalueofproduction–morethandoublethatofAsia.

LossesinAfricaareprimarilyfeltafterdroughts,when90percentoftheregion’s

lossesoccurred.Sharpdeclinesinyieldsareobservedinmostcountriesduring

droughts,likelyleadingtolossesinoutputandrevenues.Suchlossesposeaserious

challengetofoodavailability,rurallivelihoodsandtheoveralleconomy,particularly

giventhesignificantcontributionofagriculturetofoodsecurityandtheeconomiesof

sub-SaharanAfrica(seeChapterIIIforacomprehensiveanalysisofdroughtimpact

insub-SaharanAfrica).

49 Projectedvalueofproductioniscalculatedasthetotalvaluethatwouldhavebeenproducedintheanalysedcountriesincaseyieldsandproductionquantitieshadfollowedlineartrends.

2.1

The 67 countries analysed

together faced a total of

USD 80 billion in crop and

livestock production losses

Floods and droughts account

for 83% of total crop and

livestock production losses,

showing the severe impact of

climate-related disasters

on the agriculture sector

Oneofthemostdirectimpactsofdisastersonagricultureisreducedagricultural

productionandproductivity.Thiscausesdirecteconomiclossestofarmers,which

cascadesacrossthevaluechain,affectingoverallsectoralandeconomicgrowth.

Severalstudiesandneedsassessmentsquantifytheimpactofdisastersonagricultural

productionatthecountrylevel,oftenusingprimarydataondamagetocrops.Others

demonstratethatdisastersnegativelyaffectimportsandexportsofagricultural

commodities,andagriculturevalueadded42.However,thefullextentofdisasterimpact

onagriculturalproduction,tradeandvalueaddedattheregionalandgloballevelsis

notavailableorisverylimitedinscope.Thisismainlyduetothefactthatprimarydata

ondamageandlossestoagricultureisnotbeingsystematicallyreportedatthecountry

levelorcollectedworldwide43.

FAOhassoughttofillthisgapbyquantifyingchangesinagriculturalproduction

andeconomicflowsassociatedwithdisasters.Astatisticalanalysiswasperformed

toquantify:(i)cropandlivestockproductionlosses;(ii)changesintradeflows;

and(iii)reducedsectorgrowth.Theanalysiscovered140medium-andlarge-scale

disasters(affectingatleast250000people)thatoccurredbetween2003and2013in

67developingcountriesinAsia44,LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,theNearEast45and

sub-SaharanAfrica.(Annex2providesalistofcountriesconsideredinthisanalysis.)

Thefollowingmethodwasapplied:

Ú Calculating production losses:cropandlivestockproductionlosses(interms

ofcereals,pulses,keylivestockcommodities46andothercommodities47)were

calculatedasdecreasesinyields(forcrops)andproductionquantities

(forlivestockcommodities)afterthedisasterscomparedwithlineartrend

(1980–2013)projections.

Ú Calculating changes in trade flows:changesintheperformanceofimportswere

calculatedasincreasesinthevalueofimportsintheyearofandyearfollowing

adisastercomparedwithlineartrend(1980–2011)projections.Changesin

exportswerecalculatedasdecreasesinthevalueofexportsintheyearofand

yearfollowingadisastercomparedwiththelineartrend48.Theanalysisfocused

oncereals,pulses,freshmilkandmeat.

Ú Calculating changes in agriculture value added:theanalysiscompared

decreasesintherateofagriculturevalue-addedgrowthduringtheyearwhen

disastersoccurredandthesubsequentyearwiththelineartrend(2003–2013)

projections.

42 Seeforexample:WorldBank.2014.AnálisisderiesgodelsectoragropecuarioenParaguay.Identificación,priorización,estrategiayplandeacción;IsraelandBriones.2013.ImpactsofNaturalDisastersonAgriculture,FoodSecurity,andNaturalResourcesandEnvironmentinthePhilippines.ERIADiscussionPaperSeries;CavalloandNoy.2010.TheEconomicsofNaturalDisasters.Asurvey.Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank;Loayziaetal.2009.NaturalDisastersandGrowthGoingbeyondtheAverages.WorldBank;Sivakumar.2005.ImpactsofNaturalDisastersinAgriculture,RangelandandForestry:AnOverview.In:Sivakumar,MothaandDas(eds.).NaturalDisastersandExtremeEventsinAgriculture.SpringerHiderberg.pp.1–2.

43 TheDisasterInventorySystemdatabaseprovidesaccesstonationaldataondisasterdamagefrom86countriesandterritories.Foragriculture,however,thisdatabaseonlyreportstwoindicators:(1)theamountofcultivatedorpastorallandaffected(inhectares);and(2)thenumberoffour-leggedanimalslost.Reporteddataarenotdisaggregatedbytypeofcroporanimal,andnodistinctionismadebetweenpartiallyortotallyaffectedcrop/pastoralland.Moreover,agriculturaldamageisreportedonlyin12percentofalldisastersincludedinDisasterInventorySystem,and22countriesdonotreportanyagriculturaldamagebetween2003and2013.Additionaleffortsshouldbemadetocollectprimarydataonagriculturaldamageatadetailedlevel.

44 CentralAsia,easternAsia(excludingChinaandJapan),southernAsia,southeasternAsiaandthePacific.45 AsubsetofwesternAsiancountries.46 Cattlemeat,goatmeat,pigmeat,sheepmeat,cowmilk,goatmilk,sheepmilk.47 Othercommoditieswereselectedatcountrylevelandincludeanycropcommodity(bothstapleandcash

crop)otherthancerealsandpulsesincludedintheFAOSTATlistoftop10commoditiesbyproductionquantityandproductionvaluein2012.InthecaseofdroughtinAfrica,“othercommodities”refertoanycropcommodityotherthancerealsandpulsesthatwasmentionedinofficialassessmentsasbeingaffectedbydrought.Examplesofcropsincludedunderthiscategoryare:coffee,fruits,rootsandtubers(e.g.potatoes,cassava),sugarcane,tobacco,vegetables,amongothers.

48 ChangesinimportandexportflowswereanalysedusingaggregateddataatcountrylevelfromFAOSTAT.

The statistical analysis

covered 140 medium- and

large-scale disasters

that affected

67 developing countries

CHAPTERIIQuantifyingproductionlosses,changesintradeflowsandsectorgrowthafterdisastersoverthepastdecade

billion

ä

USD

7

Shar

e by

type

of h

azar

dSh

are

by ty

pe o

f haz

ard

Shar

e by

type

of h

azar

dSh

are

by ty

pe o

f haz

ard

in crop and livestocklosses 2003–2013

billionä

USD

48of the projected

in crop and livestocklosses 2003–2013

value of production2%

billion

ä

USD

14in crop and livestocklosses 2003–2013

of the projected value of production6%

billion

ä

USD

11in crop and livestocklosses 2003–2013

of the projectedvalue of production3%

of the projected

value of production7%

ä

USD

ä

USD

ä

USD

0%

50%

100%

0%

50%

100%

0%

50%

100%

0%

50%

100%

Figure 6. Losses after 140 medium- to large-scale disasters affecting more than 250,000 people alone

ASIA

NEAR EAST

AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

Legend: Storms Floods Drought Earthquakes

Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT

Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT

Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT

Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT

30

Floodswereassociatedwith77%oftheregion’slosses.Whiletheregionexperiencedthelargestabsoluteproductionlosses,itwasleastaffectedinrelation

totheprojectedvalueofproduction.Indiawasmostaffectedbylossesafterrecurrentfloodsfrom2004to2013,whilethePhilippines(e.g.2012Bophaand2013HaiyanTyphoons),

Pakistan(e.g.2010floods),Cambodia(e.g.2005drought)andThailand

(e.g.2008drought)werealsohard-hit

Some90%oftheregion’slossesoccurredafterdroughts,whenmostcountries

experiencedsharpdeclinesinyields,likelyleadingtolossesinoutputandrevenue.

Droughtsseverelychallengefoodavailability,rurallivelihoodsandoveralleconomies,

particularlygivenagriculture’scriticalcontributiontofoodsecurityandeconomies

insub-SaharanAfrica

Mostlossesoccurredafterfloods(55%)followedbydroughtsandstorms.Brazilwasmostaffected,

alsoduetothelargesizeofitsagriculturalproduction,following2009floodsinthenorth

ofthecountry.OtherseriouslyaffectedcountriesincludedColombia(2007,2010and2011floods),

Mexico(2005HurricaneEmily,2007Tabascofloodsand2011drought)and

Paraguay(2011–12drought)

TheNearEastwasthemostaffectedregioninrelativeterms,withmostlossesoccurringafter

the2008droughtinSyria

LatinAmericanandCaribbeancountriesexperiencedaboutUSD11billioninproduction

losses,mainlyafterfloods(55percentoftotallossesintheregion)andtoalesser

degreeafterdroughtsandstorms.Inrelativeterms,regionallossescorrespondedto

3percentoftheprojectedvalueofproduction–lowerthanAfricabuthigherthanAsia.

Themostaffectedcountry,alsoduetothelargesizeofitsagriculturalproduction,

wasBrazil,whichsufferedmajorlossesafterthe2009floodsinthenortheast.Other

countriessignificantlyaffectedincludedColombia,afterfloodsin2007,2010and2011;

Mexico,followingHurricaneEmilyin2005,the2007floods(Tabasco)andthe2011

drought;andParaguay,afterthe2011–2012drought.

OnlythreemajordisastersoccurredintheNearEastduringtheperiod,causing

USD7billioninproductionlossesintheaffectedcountries.Theselossesamounted

to7percentoftheprojectedvalueofproduction,makingtheNearEastcountriesthe

mostaffectedinrelativeterms.Mostlossesoccurredafterthe2008droughtinSyria.

QuantifyinglossesincaloriesThetotalproductionlossesreportedabovecorrespondto333milliontonnesof

cereals,pulses,meat,milkandothercommodities50.Themostaffectedcommodities

werecereals,whichaccountformorethanone-thirdoftotallosses.Suchsignificant

lossesincerealproductionraiseconcernsabouttheconsequencesforfoodsecurity

indevelopingcountries,whichaccountformorethan60percentofworldcereal

consumptionandderivemorethanhalfoftheirdietaryenergysupply(DES)from

cereals,rootsandtubers51.

Inordertoprovideameasureoftheamountofcalorieslostafterdisasters,losseswere

convertedfromphysicalquantitiesintocaloriesusingregionalfoodcompositiontables.

DES,whichestimatesthepercapitaamountofenergyinfoodavailableforhuman

consumption,expressedinkcalpercapitaperday,wasusedasabasisforcomparison.

Basedonthesefigures,lossesaftereachdisastercorrespond,onaverage,tonearly

7percentofpercapitaDESinthecountriesanalysed.Thisfigure(calculatedatnational

level)indicatestheshareoflossexpressedincaloriesthatwasnolongeravailable

fromdomesticproductionforhumanconsumption,withpossiblenegativeimpactson

nationalorsubnationalfoodsecurity.

Whilethefindingspresentedaboveprovideanestimationofthepotentialimpactof

disastersonfoodavailability,itshouldbenotedthatcropandlivestocklossesdonot

necessarilytranslateintoanequivalentlossofpercapitaenergysupply.Asillustrated

laterinthissection,productionshortfallsareusuallycompensatedbyanincreasein

commercialimportsandfoodaid;therefore,theoverallimpactonDESafterdisasters

maybelower.Thepresenceofstocksand/ortheincreaseinsupplyofnon-affected

commoditiescanplayanimportantroleincompensatingenergysupplylosses

resultingfromdeclinesinproduction.

QuantifyinglossesbyagriculturalcommoditygroupThe333milliontonnesofcropandlivestockcommoditieslostafterdisasterswere

convertedintomonetaryvalueandanalysedbyregioninordertobetterunderstandthe

regionaldistributionoflossesbycommoditygroup(Figure 7).Theanalysisshowsthat

therearelargelydifferingdeclinesinproductionpercommoditygroupandregion.

50 Totallossescorrespondto139milliontonnesofcereals;12milliontonnesofpulses;5milliontonnesofmeat(includingcattle,goat,pigandsheepmeat),20milliontonnesofmilk(includingcow,goatandsheepmilk),and157milliontonnesofothercommodities(e.g.coffee,tobacco,sugarcaneandselectedfruits,vegetables,rootsandtubers).

51 FAO.2015.Shareofdietaryenergysupplyderivedfromcereals,rootsandtubers.BasedonFAOFoodSecurityIndicators.

The most affected

commodities were cereals,

which account for more than

one-third of total losses

CHAPTERIIQuantifyingproductionlosses,changesintradeflowsandsectorgrowthafterdisastersoverthepastdecade

Near EastLatin America and the Caribbean

AsiaAfrica

9 billion

Increasein

imports

Decreasein

exports

12 billion

15 billion

6 billion

-6 billion

3 billion

-3 billion

0

6

13 13

1-1-1-1

-4

Figure 8. Decreases in exports and increases in imports after disasters analysed between 2003 and 2011 by region (in USD billion)

Source:EM-DATCRED

InAfrica,forexample,thesharpdeclineinkeystaplecerealcropssuchasmaize,milletand

sorghumafterdisasters(especiallydrought)representsamajorchallengeforfoodsecurity

andnutrition.Disasterriskreductionmeasuresshouldconsiderthetypesofcropsmost

affectedineachregionandcountry,withspecificattentiontocropsthatprovidethelargest

contributiontofoodsecurityandnutrition,aswellastorurallivelihoods.

Disaggregateddataontheimpactofdisastersonagriculturalcommoditiesisneeded

tosupportdecision-makersandrelevantstakeholdersinselectingappropriatecrop

varietiesandotherfarmingpracticesandagriculturaltechnologiesthatbuildresilience.

Changes in agricultural trade flows after disasters

Declinesinagriculturalproductionafterdisasterscantriggerchangesinagricultural

tradeflows,whichinturncanincreaseimportexpendituresandreduceexport

revenues.Section1.3presentedthewiderimpactofdisastersonmacro-economic

flows,includingonagriculturaltrade.Abroaderanalysiswasconductedof116disasters

affecting59developingcountriesbetween2003and2011todeterminetheextentto

whichchangesinagriculturalimportsandexportsareassociatedwithdisastersin

developingregions53.

ThefindingsrevealthatfoodimportsincreasedbyUSD33billionfollowingdisasters

overtheperiodconsidered,correspondingto28percentoftheprojectedvalueof

imports54.Importsincludebothcommercialfoodimportsandfoodaidshipments.

Figure 8showstheriseinagriculturalcommodityimportsbyregion.Together,Asian

andLatinAmericanandCaribbeancountriesaccountforalargemajorityofincreases

inimportsassociatedwithdisasters.Suchatendencymaybeconsideredanindirect

effectoflossestodomesticproductionandconsequentriseindemandforimported

food.InthecaseofAfrica,however,thefindingsshowthatincreasesinagricultural

importsafterdisastersareproportionallylowerthanlossesindomesticproduction.

IntheUnitedRepublicofTanzania,whilecerealproductionlossesamountedto

about850000tonnesfollowingthe2006drought,cerealimportsgrewbyabout

350000tonnes,therebycompensatinglessthanhalfoflosses,withlikelynegative

consequencesonfoodavailability.

53 ThesamplesizeofcountriesanddisastersissmallerthaninSection2.2duetodataonagriculturaltradebeingavailableonlyuntil2011atthetimeofwriting.

54 Thefigureonincreasesinimportsislikelytobehigherwhenconsideringfoodaidshipmentsofalltypesofcommodities.Furthermore,limiteddataavailabilitypreventedadetailedanalysisoffoodaidshipmentsallocatedtodisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazards.

Disaster risk reduction

measures should pay specific

attention to crops that

contribute most to food

security and nutrition

2.2

Figure 7showsforinstancethatcereals(especiallymaize,millet,sorghumand

wheat)arethemostaffectedcropsinAfrica,correspondingtoabout50percentof

totalproductionlossesintheregion.LatinAmericanandCaribbeancountriesmainly

experiencedlossesincashcropssuchascoffee,sugarcaneandtropicalfruits,aswell

asstaplecropslikecassavaandpotatoes.Cereals,especiallyrice,maizeandwheat,

werethemostaffectedcommoditiesinAsia,followedbylivestockandtropicalfruits,

particularlybananasandmangoes,andcassava.NearEastcountriesexperiencedthe

majorityoflossestocashcrops.

Insomecases,post-disasterfallsincerealproductionoccurredincountriesthatface

foodsecuritychallengesandderivehighsharesoffoodenergyintakefromcereals.In

Ethiopia,forexample,maizeyieldsdroppedby26percentfollowingthe2003drought.

Majorcerealproducersandexportershavealsosufferedsignificantlossesfrom

disasters.Indiaaloneaccountedformorethanone-thirdoftotalcereallossesinall

theanalysedcountries.Cashcropproductionalsodeclinedintopexportingcountries

inLatinAmerica.InBrazil,coffeeyieldsdeclinedbyupto10percentafter

the2007drought,impactinginternationalprices52.

Theanalysisshowsthatsignificantdeclinesincropandlivestockproductionare

associatedwithdisastersindevelopingcountries.Yet,thereportedfiguresarelikelyto

beunderestimatedastheanalysisfocusedonmedium-andlarge-scaledisastersand

onaselectednumberofcommodities.Itislikelythatlossesalsooccurredinother

commodities.

Inaddition,thefindingsshowthatlossesdifferintermsofaffectedcommoditygroups

andtypeofdisasteracrossregionsandcountries.Suchdifferencesshouldbetaken

intoconsiderationindevelopmentplansfortheagriculturesectorforintegrating

measuresandtargetsthatreducerisksandimprovetheresilienceofthesector.For

thisreason,thecollection,systematicreportingandin-depthanalysisofdataonthe

impactofdisastersonagricultureareessentialtosupportcontext-specificplanningfor

riskreductionandshouldbecomeacentralpriorityofnationalgovernmentsandthe

internationalcommunity.

52 http://www.ibtimes.com/droughts-brazil-west-africa-us-are-hurting-commodities-experts-say-its-only-temporary-1562843

Cereals correspond

to about 50% of

crop losses in Africa

Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT.Pricesinconstant2004–2006USD

Africa

USD 14 billion

Asia

USD 48 billion

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

USD 11 billion

NearEast

USD 7 billion

Figure 7. Regional production losses by commodity group associated with disasters between 2003 and 2013

LegendCereals(%)

Livestock(%) Othercommodities(%)

Pulses(%)

CHAPTERIIQuantifyingproductionlosses,changesintradeflowsandsectorgrowthafterdisastersoverthepastdecade34 35

Theresultsshowsignificantdropsinagriculturevalue-addedgrowthafterdisasters.

In55percentoftheeventsanalysed,adeclineinagriculturevalue-addedgrowthin

theyearofdisasterswasobserved56.Intheyearafterthedisaster,sectorgrowthwas

negativelyaffectedby83percentofallthedisastersanalysed.Onaverage,eachdisaster

eroded2.6percentofsectoralgrowth.

Thedeclineinsectorgrowthwasparticularlyremarkableaftersomeseveredroughts.

Forexample,agriculturevalue-addedgrowthinZimbabwedeclinedbyanaverage

ofabout18percentin2007and2008followingadrought.Asignificantdropin

sectorgrowthwasalsoobservedafterthe2012droughtinParaguay,withagriculture

value-addedgrowthdecliningbyanaverageof16percentin2012and2013compared

withprojectedgrowth.Thepoorerperformanceofagriculturecomparedwithlinear

growthtrendssuggeststhesectorishighlyvulnerabletothedisruptiveeffectsof

disasters,especiallyintheshortterm.

Figure 9showsthatAfricawasmostaffectedintermsofaveragedeclineinagriculture

valueadded,losing3.3percentofagriculturegrowthaftereachdisaster.Thishighlights

thesusceptibilityofAfricancountriestochangesinagriculturesectorgrowthafter

disasters.Givenagriculture’ssignificantcontributiontototalGDPintheAfrican

countriesanalysed(about25percentonaverage),suchlossesinsectorgrowthcan

negativelyaffecttheentirenationaleconomy,asillustratedinChapterI.

Overall,itisclearthatagriculturegrowthdeclinessignificantlyafterdisastersin

developingcountries.Thefindingsrepresentobservedtrendsandnotacausal

relationshipgiventhecomplexanddynamicinterplayofdomesticandinternational

factorsthatcaninfluenceagriculturegrowthduringtheyearswhendisastersoccur.

However,thereisastrongcorrelationbetweenfallingsectorgrowthanddisasters,

illustratedbythenegativetrendinagricultureGDPgrowthobservedin55percentof

thedisastersanalysed.

56 NegativeperformanceisintendedasavalueofagricultureGDPgrowthratelowerthanthelineartrendvalueintheyearofdisaster.

Inordertocomparemoreconsistentlyacrossregionalmarkets,increasesinimports

weremeasuredasashareoftheprojectedvalueofimports.Theresultsshowthat

regionaldifferencesareminor.Foreachregion,increasesinimportsafterdisasters

werebetween25and30percenthigherthanprojectedvalues.

Decreasesinexportsofcereals,pulses,milkandmeatamountedtonearly

USD7billion–abouta6percentdropintheprojectedvalueofexports.Almost

two-thirdsoftotaldeclinesoccurredinAsiancountries,representingUSD4.4billion,

mainlyduetothelargersizeofAsianexportmarkets.Onereasonforthereduction

inexportsafterdisastersmaybethediversionintradableagriculturalcommodities

towardsdomesticmarketstomeetdomesticfooddemand.Also,theimpactof

disastersonagriculturalproductionhaslikelyhadanindirectnegativeeffectonthe

amount(andvalue)ofexportedagriculturalcommodities.

Whencomparedwithprojectedexports,theanalysisshowsthattheNearEastisthe

mostaffectedregioninrelativeterms,losing42percentofprojectedexportsafter

disasters.Almostalldecreasesinexportsintheregionoccurredafterthe2008drought

inSyria.InAfrica,decreasesinexportscorrespondto26percentofprojectedexports,

whiletheshareisconsiderablylowerinAsia(6percent)andLatinAmericaandthe

Caribbean(2percent).Wecanthusconcludethatlossesinexportrevenuesmayhave

arelativelystrongernegativeimpactonthebalanceoftradeinAfricanandNearEast

countriescomparedwithAsian,LatinAmericanandCaribbeancountries.

Overall,theanalysisrevealsthatsignificantchangesinagriculturaltradeflowsoccurred

aftermedium-andlarge-scaledisastersindevelopingcountries.Apositivestatistical

correlationisfoundbetweendisastersandtradeflows.Forexample,increased

importsofcereals,pulses,meatormilkwereobservedafter95percentofthedisasters

analysed,whiledecreasedexportsofthesamecommoditiesoccurredafter89percent

ofthedisasters.Apositiverelationshipwasalsofoundbetweenproductionlossesand

fallingexports,asreductionsinexportedcommoditiesweregreaterafterdisastersthat

causedthegreatestproductionlosses.Changesintradeflowswouldlikelybemore

significantifothercommoditieswereconsidered,suchascashcropswhichcontribute

significantlytoexportrevenuesinmanydevelopingcountries.Furtheranalysisof

agriculturaltradedynamicswithincountriesmayrevealevenmoredrasticchangesin

importsandexportsoffoodproductsintheaffectedregions.

Changes in sector growth associated with disasters over the past decade

Ultimately,productionlossescanreduceagriculturevalueaddedorsectorgrowth,

withconsequencesfornationalGDPincountrieswherethesectorisakeydriverof

economicgrowth.

SeveralexamplesandcasestudieswerepresentedinChapterIinordertoillustratethe

impactofdisastersonagriculturesectorgrowth.Inthissection,abroaderassessment

wasundertakenof125disastersthataffected60developingcountriesbetween2003

and2013inordertodeterminetheextenttowhichagriculturesectorgrowthdeclined

afterdisasters55.Decreasesintherateofagriculturevalue-addedgrowthduringtheyear

whendisastersoccurredandthesubsequentyearwerecomparedwiththelineartrend

projection(2003–2013).Annexes3and5providefurtherdetailsonthecountriesand

disastersincludedinthisanalysis,aswellasonthemethodologyused.

55 DisastersthatoccurredinChad,theGambia,Israel,Kenya,Myanmar,PeruandtheSyrianArabRepublicwereexcludedfromtheanalysisduetolackofdataonagricultureGDPgrowth.

Decreases in exports of

cereals, pulses, milk and

meat amounted to nearly

USD 7 billion – about a 6%

drop in the projected value

of exports

2.3

Production losses can

reduce agricultural value

added or sector growth, with

consequences for national

GDP in countries where

the sector is a key driver of

economic growth

0-0.5%-1%-1.5%-2%-2.5%-3%-3.5%

-3.3%

-1.6%

-0.7%

-2.7%

Figure 9. Average share of agriculture value-added growth lost after disasters between 2003 and 2013, by region

Source:EM-DATCRED

Africa

Asia

Latin America and

the Caribbean

Near east

36 37Kenya,2o09HerderandhisgoatsinChalbidesert

Over 360 million people in sub-Saharan Africa were affected by droughts between 1980 and 2013

Agriculture is highly susceptible to climate variability and change. If no risk reduction and adaptation measures are put in place, enhanced exposure to drought will further compromise food security in sub-Saharan Africa

Droughtisoneoftheleast-assessednatural

hazards,despiteitsconsiderableimpactonthe

agriculturesector.Insub-SaharanAfrica,wherethe

sectorcontributesanaverageof25percentofGDP,

agriculturemusttaketheleadinmanagingrisks

associatedwithdrought

Chapter III

Droughtinsub-SaharanAfrica–anin-depthanalysisoftheimpactonagriculture

Total crop and livestock losses after droughts, between 1991 and 2013, cost more than USD 30 billion

©FA

O/G

iulio

Nap

olita

no

Figure 10. Total population (millions) affected by drought in sub-Saharan Africa (1980–2013) by subregion

Eastern Africa203

Southern Africa86

Western Africa74

Central Africa1

38 39

Anin-depthanalysiswascarriedouttobetterunderstandtheconsequencesof

droughtsinsub-SaharanAfrica,giventheirfrequencyandconsiderableimpacton

agriculture,livelihoodsandfoodsecurityandnutritionintheregion.

Sub-SaharanAfricahasnotyetmetthetargetssetattheWorldFoodSummitofhalving

thenumberofundernourishedpeopleby2015,northeMillenniumDevelopmentGoal

targetofhalvingtheproportionofundernourishedpeopleby2015.Infact,thenumberof

undernourishedpeopleintheregionrosefrom182millionin1990–1992to

227millionin2012–201457.

Agricultureisvitaltofoodsecurity,povertyreductionandeconomicgrowthinmanycountries

ofsub-SaharanAfrica.Over60percentoftheregion’spopulationisruralandliveslargelyoff

agriculture,whilethesectoremploysabout60percentoftheworkforce.Smallholderfarmers

accountforaboutthree-quartersoftheregion’spoorpopulation,withsmallholderfarming

comprising80percentofallfarms.In sub-Saharan Africa, agriculture contributes an average

of 25 percent of GDP, and as much as 50 percent when the agribusiness sector is included58.

Agriculture’sconsiderablecontributiontoemployment,aswellastoAfricaneconomies

makesthesectoracriticalengineofeconomicgrowthandwelfare.

However,agricultureisespeciallysusceptibletoclimatevariabilityandchange,andfrequent

droughtsintheregionlimitthesector’spotential.Theanalysispresentedinthissection

wasundertakentobetterunderstandtheconsequencesofdroughtintheregion.Given

itssignificantimpact,ensuringdrought-resilientfoodproductionsystemsinsub-Saharan

Africaisfundamentaltosustainableagricultureandnationaleconomicdevelopment.

57 FAO,2014.TheStateofFoodInsecurityintheWorld.58 Deutsche Bank,2014.Agriculturalvaluechainsinsub-SaharanAfrica.Fromadevelopmentchallengetoa

businessopportunity.

Brief overview of trends in drought and food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa (1980–2014)

Theterm“drought”mayrefertometeorologicaldrought(precipitationwellbelow

average),hydrologicaldrought(lowriverflowsandwaterlevelsinrivers,lakesand

groundwater),agriculturaldrought(lowsoilmoisture)andenvironmentaldrought

(acombinationoftheabove)59.However,alackofdatameantthatthisstudycould

notanalysedroughteventsaccordingtotheaboveclassification.Atgloballevel,the

EM-DATCREDdatabaseistheonlypubliclyavailabledatabasethatdocumentsdrought

eventsreportedbycountries.Therefore,thedroughtsreportedinthisdatabasewere

usedfortheanalysispresentedinthischapter.Annex4showstheyearswhendroughts

werereportedinsub-SaharanAfricabetween1980and201460.

FAOanalysedthegeo-spatialandtemporaldistributionofdroughtsinsub-Saharan

Africabetween1980and2014inrelationtothepopulationsaffected.During this

period, droughts affected over 363 million people in the region, of whom 203 million

were in eastern Africa,followedbysouthernAfricawith86million,westernAfricawith

74millionandcentralAfricawithlessthan1million61.Fivecountriesaccountedfor

nearlyhalfofalldrought-affectedpopulationsintheregionsince1980:Ethiopia,Kenya,

Malawi,theNigerandSouthAfrica,totalling171millionpeople.

Comparingthefourdecadesintermsofthenumberofpeopleaffectedbydrought,

some132millionpeoplewereaffectedinthe2000scomparedwithroughly

82–90millionpeopleinthe 1980sand1990s,respectively.Intermsofthecurrent

decade,asof2014droughthasalreadyaffected59millionpeopleinAfrica,indicating

aworseningtrend.

TrendsintheHornofAfricashowhighlevelsoffoodinsecurityonanannualbasis,as

illustratedinFigure 11.Forexample,everyyearanaverageof9.6millionpeoplefaced

foodinsecurityandrequiredhumanitarianassistanceintheHornofAfricaalone.

Droughtisjustoneofseveraltypesofshocksthatproducefoodinsecurityinthe

region.AsshowninFigure 11peaksoffoodinsecurityintheHornofAfricaoccurred

inyearswhenseveralmillionpeoplewereaffectedbydroughtinthesubregion,

indicatingastrongcorrelationbetweendroughtandfoodinsecurity.Inmanycases,

thereisacomplexinteractionofcrisesthatmaycombinewithdroughttoproduce

foodinsecurity,suchassoaringandvolatilefoodprices,livestockandplantpests

anddisease,resource-basedcompetition,internalconflictandcivilinsecurity.

Theseareamongotherimportantdriversofproductionlossandfoodinsecurity,

whichcancoincidewithdroughtinagivenyear.

Damage and losses to agriculture due to drought

Droughtscausesignificantdamageandlossestoagriculture.DroughtinKenya

(2008–2011),Djibouti(2008–2011)andUganda(2010–2011)costatotalof

USD11.4billionindamageandlossestothethreecountries’agriculturesectors

andatotalofUSD13.6billiontoallsectorscombined.

59 IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.2007.ClimateChange2007:SynthesisReport(FourthAssessmentReport-AR4).

60 ItisimportanttonotethattheEM-DATCREDhaslimitationsthatshouldbeconsidered;namelythatitrecordsonlydisastereventsthatmeetoneoffourcriteria:(i)Tenormorepeoplereportedkilled,(ii)100ormorepeoplereportedaffected,(iii)declarationofastateofemergency,and(iv)callforinternationalassistance.Thedatabasethereforedoesnotnecessarilycapturealldroughtevents.Anotherlimitationisthatthetypeofdroughtisnotreportedinthedatabase,noritsduration.Ideally,morespecificinformationwouldenableamorepreciseanalysisofdroughtimpact,forexamplethecropseasonorcalendarassociatedwithagivendrought.

61 BasedonEM-DATCRED.ThenumberofpeopleaffectedreportedinEM-DATCREDdatabasereferstothesumofinjured,homelessandpeoplerequiringimmediateassistanceduringaperiodofemergency,i.e.requiringbasicsurvivalneedssuchasfood,water,shelter,sanitationandimmediatemedicalassistance.

3.1

The number of people

affected by drought in

sub-Saharan Africa

is growing,

from 82–90 million

in the 1980s and 1990s to

132 million in the 2000s

3.2

As much as 84% of the

economic impact of drought

falls on agriculture

Source:EM-DATCRED

Somalia (drought)Kenya (drought)

Ethiopia (drought)Djibouti (drought)

9 million

12 million

6 million

3 million

0

2004 2005

77.2

8.4

4.5

11.6

13.4

10.6

13.1

10.9

9.6

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Legend Population affected by drought in

Source:DataonfoodinsecurepeopleintheHornofAfricaisbasedonnationalandinternationalassessmentreports,FlashAppealsandUnitedNationsandpartners’ConsolidatedAppeals.

Informationondrought-affectedpeopleisbasedondatafromEM-DATCRED.Note:dataonfoodinsecurepeopleintheHornofAfricareferstoDjibouti,Ethiopia,KenyaandSomalia.

Figure 11. Population facing food insecurity/in need of humanitarian assistance in the Horn of Africa and population affected by drought in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia by year (millions)

Number of people food insecure

CHAPTERIIIDroughtinsub-SaharanAfrica–anin-depthanalysisoftheimpactonagriculture40 41

Thissuggeststhatonaverageasmuchas84percentoftheeconomicimpactofdrought

fallsonagriculture.Theremainingimpactistypicallyonsectorssuchashealthand

nutrition,energy,waterandsanitation,amongothers.Thespecificwiderimpact caused

bythesedroughtsonfoodsecurityandtheeconomyispresentedinthenextsection.

In Uganda, the drought in 2005–2007 and rainfall deficits during 2010–2011 had a

significant impact on agriculture, with far-reaching consequences at the national level.

Agricultureaccountsforabout21percentofGDPinthecountry,66percentoftotal

employmentand46percentofexportearnings.Manufacturingaccountsforabout

20percentofGDPand40percentofthisisattributedtoagro-industries,mainlyfood

processing.The2005–2007droughtnegativelyaffectedfoodandcashcropproduction

andproductivity.Cattleandotheranimalstockswerealsoaffected,resultinginlower

availabilityofmeatandmilkproductsinto2008.Productionlossesimpactedfood

availability,raisedmarketpricesoffoodstuffsandincreasedmalnutritionratesamong

thepopulationintheaffectedareas.Productionlossesalsoresultedinlowerexports

oftraditionalcashcropssuchassugar,coffeeandtobacco,whichhadanadverse

impactonproducers’earnings.Thelossesinprimaryproductionhadasubsequent

negativeeffectonmanufacturingandtrade.

Tradershadalowerquantityofagricultureandlivestockgoodstosell.GDPgrewat

slowerratesthanexpectedduring2005–2008,byacombined3percentrateduringand

afterthedrought.Thetotalvalueoflosses,adjustedforinflationandexpressedin

2010terms,wasestimatedtobeUSD380million62.

In2010–2011,Ugandaonceagainfacedrainfalldeficits,loweringproductionand

exportsofsimilarcashcrops,whichledtofurtherlossesinthecountry’sagro-industry

sector,particularlysugar,coffee,tea,tobaccoandgrainsprocessing.Livestock,

especiallycattle,wasaffectedbywaterandfeedscarcityanddisease,whichresultedin

productionlossesinmeatandmilk.MostoftheimpactonlivestockwasinKaramoja

region,oneofthemostimportantareasforlivestockproductioninUgandaandwhere

mostlivestockownersandpastoralistshaveverylowpercapitaincomes.Commerce

wasindirectlyaffectedbythelowerquantityofagriculturalgoodssoldandbyincreases

inpricesofthesegoodsduetoscarcityandspeculation.Thelossessustainedinfood

processinghadanegativeimpactonUganda’sexportsandbalanceofpaymentsin

both2010and2011.Overall,77percentofthetotalUSD907millionindamageand

lossescausedbythedroughtfellontheagriculturesector,whichinpartexplainsthe

largecascadingeffectithadonthenationaleconomy.Thetotaldamageandlosses

wereequivalentto7.5percentofthecountry’sGDPin2010.Isolatedfromotherfactors,

therainfalldeficitshadanestimatedimpactof3.5percentonGDPgrowthfor2010

and2011combined63.

Wider impact of drought

ChapterIillustratedhowandtowhatextenttheimpactofdisastersonagricultural

productionaffectslivelihoodsandfoodsecurity,andhasacascadingeffectacrossthe

foodandagriculturevaluechainandonmanufacturing,whichresonatesonnational

economies.Asimilaranalysisofthewiderimpactofdroughtindicatesamuchmore

significantimpactinsub-SaharanAfricacomparedwithothertypesofdisasters.

62 GovernmentofUganda.2012.The2010–2011IntegratedRainfallVariabilityImpacts,NeedsAssessmentandDroughtRiskManagementStrategy.

63 GovernmentofUganda.2012.The2010–2011IntegratedRainfallVariabilityImpacts,NeedsAssessmentandDroughtRiskManagementStrategy.Note:whererequired,theexchangerateusedwas:UGX2450perUSD1.

Livestock production in

Uganda’s Karamoja region

absorbed most of the impact

of the 2010–2011

rainfall deficits

3.3

ThiscanbeseenintheHornofAfrica,wheredroughtandrainfalldeficitsaffected

variousareasbetween2008and2011.Theseveredroughtcrisisthatgrippedthe

regionby2011broughtfoodinsecurityto15.5millionpeoplewhoneededhumanitarian

assistance,andasmanyas2.3millionchildrenwereacutelymalnourished,while

over560000weresufferingfromacutemalnutrition64.

InDjibouti,thedroughtaffectedover120000people–50percentoftherural

populationand15percentofthetotalpopulation65.Agriculturalproductionand

livestocklossesledtoseverefoodinsecurityinruralareas.

Thedroughtcauseda25percentdeclineinfoodconsumption(equaltoa20percent

lossinkcalperhousehold)anda50percentdecreaseintheconsumptionofgoods

andservicessuchaseducationandhealth.Thedroughtcausedanestimated

USD209millionintotaldamageandlossesbetween2008and2011.

Cropandlivestocklossesamountedto41percentofthesector’sGDP,whichproduced

aGDPaverageyearlydeflectionof3.9percentovertheperiod.Thecountry’scurrent

accountbalanceincreasedannuallyby2.7percentofGDPbetween2008and201166.

In Kenya, the drought caused nearly USD 11 billion in damage and losses to

agriculture, equal to 85 percent of the total economic impact.Losseswerefeltin

thefoodprocessingindustry,leadingtolowerexports,andsectorgrowthfell

to-5percentin2008and-2.3percentin2009,withnegativeconsequences

fornationalGDP67.

The1991/92droughtaffectingsouthernAfricafurtherillustratesthecomplexityand

far-reachingeffectofdroughtsonagriculture,foodsecurityandnationaleconomies.

ManypartsofsouthernAfricareceivedlessthan75percentoftheiraveragerainfall

and70percentofthecropsfailed,affectingtencountriesintheSouthernAfrican

DevelopmentCommunity.Atotalof86millionpeoplewereaffected,about72percent

ofthepopulation,20millionofwhomwereatseriousriskofstarvation68.Althoughthe

regionwasanetexporteroffood,southernAfricaimported11.6milliontonnesoffood

betweenApril1992andJune1993–sixtimeshigherthanthenormalvolumeofimports

inthesubregion69.

InSouthAfrica,thedroughtresultedinthelossof49000agriculturaljobsand

20000formaljobsinnon-agriculturalsectors.Maizeimportswererequireduntil1995,

whilemaizeexportearningsfell,withfurtherdeclinesinotheragriculturalexportsand

inexportsfromrelatedsectors.AgriculturalGDPdeclinedby27percentandnational

GDPby2.4percent.Inthemanufacturingsector,outputdeclinedby3.3percent.

Consumerexpenditurefellby0.9percentandgrossdomesticsavingsby8.4percent70.

64 FAOGlobalInformationandEarlyWarningSystems.2011.CropProspectsandFoodSituation.65 Thisissaidtobeaconservativeestimateandtheaffectedpopulationmayhavebeenashighas

245000people,seeforexamplePDNAataGlance.66 RepublicofDjibouti,WorldBank,UnitedNationsandEuropeanUnion.2011.EvaluationdesDommages,

PertesetBesoinsSuiteàlaSécheresseenRépubliquedeDjibouti.67 RepublicofKenyawithtechnicalsupportfromtheEuropeanUnion,UnitedNationsandWorldBank.2012.68 Buckland,R.,Eele,G.,andMugwara,R.2000.Humanitarian crisis and natural disasters: A SADC perspective.

In:Clay,E.andStokke,O.(eds)Food aid and human security.EuropeanAssociationofDevelopmentResearch.London:FrankCasspublishers.

69 InternationalFederationofRedCrossandRedCrescentSocieties(IFRC),WorldDisastersReport1994;TheSternReview:theEconomicsofClimateChange;BensonCandClayE.,1994,Theimpactofdroughtonsub-SaharanAfricaneconomies:apreliminaryexamination,OverseasDevelopmentInstitute(ODI)WorkingPaper77;InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).2003.FundAssistanceforCountriesFacingExogenousShocks;Glantz,M.H.,etal.1997.FoodsecurityinsouthernAfrica:assessingtheuseandvalueofENSOinformation;Kinsey,B.1998.CopingwithDroughtinZimbabwe:SurveyEvidenceonResponsesofRuralHouseholdstoRisk.

70 IFRC,WorldDisastersReport1994;TheSternReview:theEconomicsofClimateChange;BensonCandClayE.,1994,Theimpactofdroughtonsub-SaharanAfricaneconomies:apreliminaryexamination,ODIWorkingPaper77;IMF.2003.FundAssistanceforCountriesFacingExogenousShocks;GlantzM.H.,etal.1997.FoodsecurityinsouthernAfrica:assessingtheuseandvalueofENSOinformation;Kinsey,B.1998.CopingwithDroughtinZimbabwe:SurveyEvidenceonResponsesofRuralHouseholdstoRisk.

In Djibouti, the severe

drought crisis of 2011 affected

half of the rural population

and caused a 25% decline

in food consumption

The 1991/92 drought in

southern Africa affected

72% of the population

resulting in a six times higher

than normal volume of

food imports

Electricity

Rainfalldeficitsraisedthecostsofelectricity

generationforUganda.Comparedto2009,

theshareofhydropowergenerationdecreased

by2%in2010andbynearly4%in2011.Atthe

sametime,bagasseelectricitygenerationatsugar

millsdeclinedby10%in2010andbyafurther

40%in2011duetolackofsugarcaneavailability

Agricultural production

Damageandlossesintheagriculturesectorwas

USD907million,accountingfor77%oftotal

damageandlossesacrossalleconomicsectors.

Withinthesectorlivestocksustained52%ofthe

impactandcrops48%

Commerce/trade

Thelossessustainedintheprocessingof

sugar,coffee,andteaandtobaccohada

negativeimpactonUganda’sexportsand

balanceofpaymentsin2010–2011.The

commerceortradesectorwasindirectly

affectedbylowerquantityofagricultural

goodssold,andincreasesinpricesofthe

samegoods.Lowersalesinthesectorwere

estimatedatUSD16millionin2010and

2011.Itwasfurtherestimatedthatgainswere

obtainedbythetradersduetothehigherunit

pricesofthoseproductsinthetwoyears.

Totallossesforthecommercesectorwere

thusestimatedasUSD69.4millionin

2010–2011.Commercesustained7%ofall

damageandlosses

Agro-industry

Agro-industrylosseswereUSD113.5million

invalueasaresultofprimaryproduction

lossesintheagriculturesector,causing

furtherproductionorprocessinglosses,

particularlysugar,coffee,tea,tobaccoand

grainsprocessing.Agro-industrysustained

10%oftotaldamageandlosses

Food shortages

2010–2011DROUGHT

Prices

Ugandafacedhigher-than-normalpricesof

basicfoodproducts,causedbyfoodscarcity

andindirectlybyspeculationfromtraders.

Foodcropsinflationincreasedto29%,

upfrom1.5%inJanuary2011

UGANDA The sector-wide and economic impact of the 2010–2011 rainfall deficit

InUganda,agricultureaccountsforabout21%ofGDP,46%ofexportearningsand66%oftotal

employment.Coffeeisthemostimportantexportcrop.Manufacturingaccountsforabout20%ofGDP,

and40%ofthisisattributedtoagro-industry,mainlyfoodprocessing.

Imports/exports

Thelowerproductionofcash

cropsresultedinloweramounts

ofexports,particularlysugar,

coffee,teaandtobacco.

Inaddition,higherfuelimports

wereneededtoproducemore

electricityusingthermalpower

plantsasasubstitutefor

hydroelectricproduction

Total damage and losses, and GDP

Theestimatedimpactoftherainfalldeficit,isolatedfromotherfactors,was1.8%in2010and1.7%in

2011,oracombinedfigureof3.5%ofGDPgrowthforthetwoyears

Thevalueofdamageandlossesin2010–2011wasestimatedatUSD1.2billion,whichisequivalentto

7.5%ofthecountry’sGDPin2010

Deficit and balance of payments

Itwasestimatedthatthecurrentgovernment

deficitin2010wouldhavebeen7.5%lowerand

theexpectedsurplusfor2011wouldhavebeen

7.1%higheriftherainfalldeficit

hadnotoccurredduetolowertaxrevenues

arisingfromproductionlossesandhigher

expendituresonrelief.

Itwasestimatedthatiftherainfalldeficithad

notoccurred,Ugandawouldhaveexperienceda

2.5%improvementinitsbalanceofpaymentsin

2010andasimilarpositiveimpactin2011

Expenditures

Theprovisionoffoodassistanceby

thegovernmentcostUSD6.9million

Therecoveryfromthedroughtwas

estimatedtocostUSD173million

Food insecurity

Asaresultofthe

drought,669000

peoplefacedfood

insecurityin

thecountry

Poverty

Themostsevereeffectsoftherainfalldeficits

occurredindistrictswiththelowesthuman

developmentconditions,whichsuggeststhat

povertymayhavebeenaggravatedbythe

rainfalldeficits

Source:FAO,basedonGovernmentofUganda,2012,the2010–2011IntegratedRainfallVariabilityImpacts,

NeedsAssessmentandDroughtRiskManagementStrategy.Note:Exchangerateused:2,450shillingsperUSD.

3.8

1.8

0.5

0.8 0.050.9

-1 billion

1 billion

2 billion

3 billion

4 billion

Increasein

imports

Eastern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa

Decreasein

exports

0

Figure 13. Changes in trade flows after droughts in sub-Saharan Africa, by subregion (USD billion)

45

The1991/92droughtalsohadasignificantimpactinZimbabwe.Productionlossesin

maize,cottonandsugarcanenegativelyaffectedagroprocessingandtextiles,causing

manufacturingoutputtofallby9percentbytheendof1992anda6percentreduction

inforeigncurrencyreceiptsfrommanufacturedexports.Agriculturesectorgrowthin

Zimbabwefellby23percentinrealtermsin1992andthecountry’srealGDPby

9percent.Thecurrentaccountdeficitdoubledfrom6to12percentofGDPinthe

sameperiod,andtheincreasewasfinancedmainlywithhigherborrowing.Thecountry

receivedexternaldebtrelief,increasingexternaldebtasapercentageofGDP

from36percentin1991to60percentin1992,andto75percentby199571.

By1992,5.6millionpeople(halfthepopulation)hadregisteredfordroughtreliefand

1.5millionchildrenundereightyearsofagereceivedsupplementaryfeeding.Bothchild

malnutritionandthenumberofchildrenwithlowbirthweightworsened.Employment

wasrelativelystable,butrealwagesdeclinedby23percentin1992,and42percentin

agriculture72.

71 IFRC,WorldDisastersReport1994;TheSternReview:theEconomicsofClimateChange;BensonCandClayE.,1994,TheimpactofdroughtonSub-SaharanAfricaneconomies:apreliminaryexamination,ODIWorkingPaper77;IMF.2003.FundAssistanceforCountriesFacingExogenousShocks;GlantzM.H.,etal.1997.FoodsecurityinsouthernAfrica:assessingtheuseandvalueofENSOinformation;Kinsey,B.1998.CopingwithDroughtinZimbabwe:SurveyEvidenceonResponsesofRuralHouseholdstoRisk.

72 IMF.2003.FundAssistanceforCountriesFacingExogenousShocks;Benson,C.andClay,E.1994.Theimpactofdroughtonsub-SaharanAfricaneconomies:apreliminaryexamination,ODIWorkingPaper77;Glantz,M.H.,etal.1997.FoodsecurityinsouthernAfrica:assessingtheuseandvalueofENSOinformation;Kinsey,B.1998.CopingwithDroughtinZimbabwe:SurveyEvidenceonResponsesofRuralHouseholdstoRisk.

Quantifying losses after droughts in sub-Saharan Africa (1991–2013)

Thestudyassessedthelevelofproductionlossesassociatedwithdroughtin

sub-SaharanAfricabetween1991and2013,providinglonger-termtrendsacross

thesubregions.ThemethoddescribedinChapterIIwasappliedhere,focusingon

medium-andlarge-scaledroughteventsthataffected250000peopleormoreduring

theperiod73.Thestudyfocusedoncereals,pulsesandkeylivestockcommodities74,

analysingproductivityandproductiontimeseriesatthecountrylevel.

Thefindingsreportedrefertotheproductionlossesassociatedwithdroughts.

Insomecountriesandyears,otherfactorsmayhavealsoinfluencedtheperformanceof

productionincludingsoaringfoodprices,plantandanimalpestsanddiseases,conflict

andinternalinsecurity,amongotherpotentialdrivers.

Cropandlivestockproductionlossesduetodroughtinsub-SaharanAfrica(1991–2013)Total crop and livestock production losses after droughts were equivalent to about

USD 31billion between 1991 and 2013 in sub-Saharan Africa,ofwhichmorethanhalf,

orUSD16billion,werecereallosses.AsshowninFigure 12,eastern Africa was the

most affected by production losses, which reached about USD 19billion,followedby

southernandwesternAfrica.

Inordertoanalysethesefiguresinrelativeterms,totallosseswerecomparedwith

theprojectedvalueofproduction,i.e.thevalueofcommoditiesthatwouldhavebeen

producedhadyieldsandproductionquantitiesfollowedlineartrends.Theresultsshow

thatcerealsandpulseswerethemostaffectedcommoditygroups,withproduction

droppingby8percentand22percent,respectively.Thiswasfollowedbylivestock

commodities,whichfaceda7percentdeclineinproductionafterthedroughts.

Inphysicalterms,productionlosseswereequalto76milliontonnesofcereals,pulses

andlivestockcommodities.Theselosseswereconvertedintocalorielossesinorderto

provideameasureofdroughtimpactsonDES.Lossesincaloriesareexpressedasthe

averageshareofDESpercapitalostaftereachdrought.

On average, 8 percent of per capita DES was lost after each drought in sub-Saharan

Africa between 1991 and 2013.SouthernAfricawasthemostaffectedsubregion,

followedbywesternandeasternAfrica.

ImpactofdroughtonagriculturaltradeflowsandsectorgrowthTheperformanceoftradeflowsinrelationtodroughtinsub-SaharanAfricawasalso

analysedtodeterminechangesinimportsandexports75.Theanalysisappliedthe

methoddescribedinChapterIIandconsideredthefollowingcommodities:cereals,

pulses,freshmilkandmeat.Theindicatorsusedfortheanalysiswere:(i)annualvalue

ofimports;and(ii)annualvalueofexports,aggregatedbycommoditygroup.The

analysisoftradeflowsfocusesondroughtsthattookplacebetween1991and2011,

whiletheanalysisofsectorgrowthfocusesondroughtsthattookplacebetween

2003and2013,giventhelackofdata.

73 Thetimespanoftheanalysis(1991–2013)wasbasedonproducerpricedatainFAOSTAT,whichisnotavailableforthe1980s.Thereforetheanalysisincludes27sub-SaharanAfricancountriesreportedashavingdroughtsduringtheperiod,including:Angola,BurkinaFaso,Burundi,Chad,Djibouti,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Gambia,Kenya,Lesotho,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Mozambique,Namibia,theNiger,Rwanda,Senegal,Somalia,SouthAfrica,theSudan,Swaziland,theUnitedRepublicofTanzania,Uganda,ZambiaandZimbabwe.

74 Inadditiontocereals,pulsesandlivestockcommodities,theassessmentfocusedonstapleandcashcropsspecificallymentionedincountryassessments(e.g.PDNAs,CropandFoodSecurityAssessmentMissionsandEmergencyFoodSecurityAssessments)asbeingaffectedbydrought.

75 Dataontradeflowswasnotavailablefor2012and2013atthetimeofwriting.

3.4

Eastern Africa

Southern Africa

Western Africa

LegendCereal

Livestock

Pulses

10 15 2050

8.4

6 3.1

0.4

1.8 0.9

0.3

2.3 8.1

Figure 12. Cereal, pulse and livestock production losses after droughts in sub-Saharan Africa, by subregion (USD billion)

Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT.Pricesinconstant2004-2006USD.

Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT.Pricesinconstant2004-2006USD

CHAPTERIIIDroughtinsub-SaharanAfrica–anin-depthanalysisoftheimpactonagriculture46 47

The findings show that food imports increased and food exports decreased after

droughts in sub-Saharan Africa.Thetotalvalueofimportsofcereals,pulses,milkand

meatincreasedbyUSD6billion,correspondingtomorethan9percentofthetotal

valueofagriculturalimportsinthecountriesanalysed.Thetotalvalueofexportsfor

thesamecommoditygroupsdecreasedbyalmostUSD2billion,correspondingto

2.5percentofthetotalvalueofagriculturalexports.

Changesintradeflowsbysubregion(Figure 13)revealedthateasternAfricawasthe

mostaffectedbybothincreasesinimportsanddecreasesinexports,followedby

southernandwesternAfrica.Majorchangesoccurred,especiallyineasternAfrican

countries,afterdroughtsbetween2008and2011,aswellasinZimbabwe(after

droughtsin1991and2010)andSouthAfrica(afterdroughtsin1995and2004).

Whentheperformanceofsectorgrowthwasexaminedinrelationtodroughts

insub-SaharanAfricaoverthedecade2003to2013,theresultsshowthat

affected countries have lost an average of 3.5 percent of agriculture value-added

growth after each drought.Africawasmostaffectedintermsofaveragedeclinein

agriculturevalueadded,losing3.3percentofagriculturegrowthaftereachdisaster.

AsshowninFigure14,WesternandSouthernAfricancountrieswerethemostaffected,

losing4.1percentofagriculturegrowthonaverageaftereachdisaster.Thedropin

sectorgrowthwasveryhighincountrieslikeAngola,whichlostabout17percent

ofsectorgrowthonaveragein2012and2013afterthe2012drought,Namibia,where

sectorgrowthdeclinedby12percentafterthe2013droughtcomparedwithprojections,

andSenegal,whichlost9percentofsectorgrowthonaveragein2003and2004

followingthe2003drought.

TheexamplesofEthiopiaandKenyaillustratetherelationshipbetweendroughts,

agriculturesectorgrowthandnationalGDP.InKenya,between1980and2013,agriculture

growthfluctuatedthroughouttheperiodbutshowednegativepeaksinyearswhen

droughtsoccurredand/orthesubsequentyear.AsshowninFigure 15,thedropinsector

growthcoincidedwithmostdroughtyearswiththeexceptionof1994.Agricultureis

importanttoKenya’snationaleconomy,contributinganaverageofabout30percent

ofGDPduringtheperiod.Thisisclearlyreflectedinthestrongrelationshipbetween

agricultureGDPandnationalGDPperformance.

InEthiopia,therewasalsoanegativetrendinagriculturegrowthfollowingdroughts,

especiallythedroughtsreportedin1983,1987,1997/98and2003.Thegreatestdropin

growthoccurredin1984/85followingthe1983drought.Droughtwasreportedduring

fiveyearsbetween2004and2012.

Thisperiodwitnessedagradualslowdowninagriculturegrowth,althoughlesssevere

thanduringpreviousdroughts.TheimpactofdroughtsonEthiopia’sagriculture

hasadirectnegativeeffectontheperformanceofthecountry’sGDP.Asreflectedin

Figure16,thereisastrongcorrelationbetweenagriculturegrowthandGDPgrowth.

ThisisunderstandablegiventheimportanceofthesectorinEthiopia,whereit

contributedbetween40and58percentofthecountry’sGDPfrom1980to2012.

Droughtsjeopardizeagriculturalproductioninsub-SaharanAfrica,withsevere

consequencesforfoodsecurityandnutrition,andfornationaleconomiesthatare

largelybasedontheagriculturesector.Thefindingsofthisin-depthanalysiscallfor

furthermainstreamingofdroughtriskmanagementinthedevelopmentplansof

drought-affectedcountriesintheregion.Governmentsinsub-SaharanAfricahave

alreadystartedbuildingtheinstitutionalandpolicyframeworksnecessarytoaddress

disasterrisksinacomprehensiveway.TheAfricanRiskCapacity,forexample,was

establishedasaSpecializedAgencyoftheAfricanUnionto“helpMemberStates

improvetheircapacitiestobetterplan,prepareandrespondtoextremeweatherevents

In Angola, agriculture sector

growth fell by 17%

after the 2012 drought

The agriculture sector

contributed 40–58% of

national GDP in Ethiopia

from 1980 to 2012

2013

2012

2011

2010

200

9

200

8

200

7

200

6

200

5

200

4

200

3

200

2

200

1

200

0

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

LegendGDP annual growth (%) Major

droughtAgriculture, value added annual growth (%)

20%

15%

5%

10%

0

-5%

-10%

-15%

-25%

-20%

Figure 16. Ethiopia – GDP growth and agriculture value-added growth in relation to major droughts

Source:FAO,basedonWorldDevelopmentIndicators

andnaturaldisasters,thereforeprotectingthefoodsecurityoftheir

vulnerablepopulations”76.

Theseencouraginginitiativeswouldfurtherbenefitfrommorecomprehensiveanalysis

ofdroughtimpactonthesector,foodvaluechain,manufacturingandnational

economies,aswellassystematicmonitoringandreportingoftheimpactofdroughts

insub-SaharanAfricaisneededtoensurethatcontext-specific,evidence-based

measuresaretakentoenhancetheresilienceofagricultureinthefaceofrecurringand

progressivelyincreasingdroughtevents.

76 www.africanriskcapacity.org

Eastern Africa

Southern Africa

Western Africa

0-0.5%-1%-1.5%-2%-2.5%-3%4% -3.5%

-4.1%

-4.1%

-2.8%

Figure 14. Average annual share of agriculture value-added growth lost after droughts in sub-Saharan Africa, by subregion

Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT.Pricesinconstant2004–2006USD

LegendGDP annual growth (%) Major

droughtAgriculture, value added annual growth (%)

2013

2012

2011

2010

200

9

200

8

200

7

200

6

200

5

200

4

200

3

200

2

200

1

200

0

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

5%

10%

5%

0

Figure 15. Kenya – GDP growth and agriculture value-added growth in relation to major droughts

Source:FAO,basedonWorldDevelopmentIndicators

48 49

Achieving food security and the eradication of hunger in developing countries is compromised when disasters reduce the availability of food, cause unemployment and income loss, inflate food prices and restrict people’s access to food

Maldives2005tsunamirecovery

The new 2015 international commitments recognize the large impact of disasters and call for urgent action

It is necessary to anchor resilience and risk reduction in agriculture development plans and investments in order to reduce damage and losses and build resilience in food production systems

Damageandlossesonagriculturedueto

disastersneedtobebetterrecordedatthe

countrylevelinnationaldisasterlossdatabases

Chapter IV

Corefindings,conclusions

andthewayforward

©FA

O/P

raka

shS

ingh

CHAPTERIVCorefindings,conclusionsandthewayforward50 51

Summary of core findings

Despiteexistingdatagaps,thestudyappliedvariousapproachesandmethodologies

toassessdisasterimpactonagricultureindevelopingcountries.Thefindingsprovide

newinsightsintotrendsindamageandlosses,approximationsofquantifiedlosses

overthepastdecadeandthewiderimplicationsforlivelihoodsandnationaleconomies.

Thestudyshedsfurtherlighton“whatisatstake”whenitcomestotherealcostof

disasterstoagriculture.

Someofthestudy’skeyfindingsinclude:

Ú Theeconomicimpactofdisastersonagricultureisnotyetwellenough

understoodorreported.Limitedstatisticsareavailableattheglobal,regional

andnationallevels,whilealackofreportingatthecountrylevelfurtherlimits

theavailabilityofdata.Thisisparticularlythecaseforthefisheries,forestryand

naturalresourcessubsectors.

Ú Fortheagriculturesectorinparticular,indirectlosses(i.e.post-disaster

productionlossesandchangesineconomicflows)areonaveragehigherthan

directdamage(i.e.destructionofphysicalagriculturalassetsandinfrastructure)

causedbydisasters.

Ú Differenttypesofdisastershavesignificantlydifferingeffectsontheagriculture

sectoranditssubsectors,andacrosscountriesandregions,whichrequires

tailoredriskreductioninterventionsintermsofpolicy,planningandfinancial

investmentsinpreventionandsustainablepost-disasterrecoveryresponses.

Ú One-quarteroftheeconomicimpactofclimate-relateddisastersdirectly

affectstheagriculturesector.Inthecaseofdroughts,asmuchas84percent

ofresultingdamageandlossesaretothesector.

Ú AtleastUSD80billionincropandlivestockproductionhasbeenlostin

developingcountriesoverthepastdecadeafterdisasters.

Ú Theseproductionlossescorrespondto333milliontonnesofcereals,pulses,

meat,milkandothercommodities,whichhasdirectimplicationsforfood

securityindevelopingcountries.Theproductionlossescorrespondtoan

average7percentlossinDESavailablepercapitainthecountriesaffected.

Ú Whendisastersaffecttheagriculturesector,theycanhavefar-reaching

negativeconsequencesbeyondphysicaldamage;they:(i)lowerproductionand

productivity;(ii)decreaseexportsofagriculturalcommoditiesandincreasefood

imports,causingandesequilibriuminthebalanceoftradeandinthebalance

ofpaymentsinaffectedcountries;and(iii)arrestagriculturesectorgrowthand

thesustainabledevelopmentofthesector.Inaddition,productionlossescan

directlyimpactonmanufacturingsuchasonagro-industriesthatdependon

agriculturalcommoditiesandrawmaterials.Thiswiderimpactcanderailsector

growthandresonateacrossnationaleconomies.

Ú Morethanone-thirdofalldevelopingcountrieshavebeenaffectedbyatleast

threemedium-orlarge-scaledisastersbetween2003and2013.Recurrent

disasterscontinuallycausedamageandlossestoagriculture,undermining

sustainableagriculture,growthandfoodsecurity.

Ú Achievingsustainableagriculturaldevelopmentandfoodsecurityisatserious

riskincountrieswithrecurrentdisastersandwheretheagriculturesectordrives

economicgrowthandprosperity,employingandfeedingthemajorityofthe

vulnerablepopulationsaffected.

4.1 Financial resource flows to the agriculture sector and to disaster risk reduction

Reviewingthesecorefindingscallsforananalysisofthefinancialresourceflowsto

theagriculturesector,inrelationtogovernmentexpenditure,officialdevelopment

assistanceandhumanitarianaid77.Thereareseveralreportsanddatasetsthatexamine

financialflowstoagricultureand,separately,financialflowstodisasterriskreduction.

Theyindicatethatdespitetrendsinrisinghumanandeconomiclosses,growthin

fundingfordisastershasbeenmoderateoverthelasttwodecades.Basedondatafrom

theDisasterAidTrackingdatabase,whichincludesex-anteandex-postdisaster-related

developmentandhumanitarianaidfrompublicandprivatedonors,ODIreported

thattheshareallocatedtodisasterriskreductionacrossallsectorswasparticularly

lowbetween1991and2010,correspondingtoanaverageof0.4percentoftotal

developmentassistance78.

However,thereisnocomprehensivestudyonthelinksbetweendisasterimpacton

agricultureandinvestmentsmadeinriskreductionwithinthesector.

Intheabsenceofthis,thefollowingisasummaryoffinancialresourceflowsunder

differentfundingstreams79totheagriculturesectoranddisasterriskreductionand

managementinthecontextofnaturalhazards.

HumanitarianaidBetween2003and2013,roughlyUSD121billionwasspentonhumanitarianassistance

foralltypesofdisastersandcrises80.About3.4percentwasdirectedtotheagriculture

sector,averagingaboutUSD374millionannually81.

Inthesameperiod,aboutUSD20billionwasallocatedtoallsectorsforhumanitarian

assistanceafterdisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazards–aboutUSD1.8billionper

year82.Alonetheestimatedcropandlivestockproductionlossesrecordedafterthe

140analyseddisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazardsindevelopingcountriesamounted

toUSD80billionormorethanUSD7billionperyearoverthesameperiod83.

OfficialdevelopmentassistanceOnly 4.2 percent of total official development assistance was spent on agriculture between

2003 and 2012 – less than half of the United Nations target of 10 percent. On average, the

sector received less than USD 6 billion per year between 2003 and 201284.Development

fundingrepresentsanessentialresourceflowforenhancingresiliencetodrivethe

sustainabledevelopmentofagriculture.Thegapbetweenallocationandtargetsoverthe

lastdecadecallsforincreasedfundingtoagriculturalrisk-sensitivedevelopment,especially

giventheincreasingimpactofdisasters,particularlythoserelatedtoclimate.

77 Privatesectorinvestmentsrepresentanessentialcontributiontoagriculturaldevelopment.Forthepurposeofthisreport,however,theanalysisoffinancialflowsfocusedonlyongovernmentspending,officialdevelopmentassistanceandhumanitarianaid,

78 ODI.2015.Financing for disaster risk reduction. Ten things to know.79 Whencomparingfinancialflowstoagriculturewithdisasterdamageandlossestoagriculture,itmustbe

notedthattheformerincludestheprovisionofagriculturalinputsforcropsthatareexpectedtogeneratevalueaddedthroughoutthedifferentphasesofproduction.Also,agriculturemaybenefitindirectlyfromresourcesallocatedtoothersectors.Forexample,fundsallocatedtothehealthsectormaybringbenefitstopopulationsdependingonagriculture,whichtranslateintobenefitsfortheagriculturesector.

80 DatabasedontheUnitedNationsOfficefortheCoordinationofHumanitarianAssistanceFinancialTrackingService.Datareferstoallcrises.

81 DatabasedonFinancialTrackingService.Datareferstoallcrises.82 DatabasedonFinancialTrackingService.Datareferstonaturalhazardsonly.83 Estimatedcropandlivestockproductionlossesarelikelytobeconservativeastheanalysisfocusedon

selectedcommoditiesaffectedbymedium-andlarge-scaledisasters.Furthermore,fisheriesandforestryproductionlossesafterdisastersarenotincludedintheestimationofproductionlosses.

84 DatabasedontheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)CreditorReportingSystem.Officialdevelopmentassistanceisfromalldonorstoalldevelopingcountriesinconstant2012prices.

4.2

Despite trends in rising

human and economic

losses, growth in funding for

disasters has been moderate

over the last two decades

Just 3.4% of the estimated

USD 121 billion spent on

humanitarian aid between

2003 and 2013 was directed

to the agriculture sector

CHAPTERIVCorefindings,conclusionsandthewayforward52 53

GovernmentexpenditureAlthough,globally,governmentspendingonagricultureincreasedfrom1980to2007,

agriculturalexpenditureasashareoftotalpublicexpenditurehasshowntheopposite

trendinallregionsexceptEuropeandCentralAsia85.InAfricancountries,despite

theseveredamageandlossescausedbydroughttoagricultureandwiderimpacton

nationaleconomies,agriculture’sshareofgovernmentspendingwasabout3–6percent

(2003to2007),lowerthanthe10percent(exceptinthe1980s)targettowhichAfrican

governmentsagreedin2003whensigningtheMaputoDeclaration86.Muchhigher

investmentsshouldbeexpectedincountrieswhereagricultureisavitalsourceof

livelihoods,income,employmentandfood,akeydriverofeconomicprosperity,and

wheredisastersstuntsectorandnationaleconomicgrowth,andconsequentlyarrest

progressineliminatinghunger,foodinsecurityandpoverty.

Asillustratedinthisstudy,disasters exact a heavy toll on the agriculture sector in

developing countries, as they often affect agricultural production with cascading negative

consequences for national economies.Atthesametime,theabove-mentionedtrends

suggestthatthesectorreceivedarelativelylowshareoftotalresourceflowsoverthe

analysedperiod.However,furtheranalysisisneededtomakeameaningfulcomparison

betweenresourceflowstoagricultureandtheimpactofdisastersonthesector.

Enhancedcoherenceandsynergiesbetweenhumanitarian,developmentand

governmentinvestmentareneededtoeffectivelyenhancetheresilienceofagriculture

andaddresstheunderlyingdriversofrisksaffectingfarmers,pastoralists,fishersand

forest-andtree-dependentpeople,eventuallypreventingand/ormitigatingthedamage

andlossescausedbydisasterstoagriculture.Furtherworkisneededtoquantifythe

cost-benefitratioofinvestingindisasterriskreductioninagriculturecomparedwith:

(i)otherkindsofagriculturesectorinvestments;and(ii)post-disastersupporttothe

sector.Thereissomeevidencetosuggestthatinvestingindisasterriskreductionin

agricultureismorecost-effectiveintermsofreducingtheimpactofnaturalhazards

thanotherkindsofinvestments87;however,theevidencebaseforthismustbe

strengthenedinordertopresentaconvincingcase.

85 BasedontheStatisticsforPublicExpenditureforEconomicDevelopmentdatabasefromtheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute,whichcovers67countries–13ofthesearehigh-incomenon-OECDcountriesand54areclassifiedaslow-ormiddle-incomecountries.

86 AfricanUnion.2003.MaputoDeclarationonAgricultureandFoodSecurityinAfrica.87 ODIandWorldBank,2015.Unlockingthetripledividendofresilience.Whyinvestingindisasterrisk

managementpaysoff;Kelman.2012.DisasterMitigationisCost-Effective.WorldDevelopmentReport:BackgroundPaper;Vorhies.2012.TheEconomicsofInvestinginDisasterRiskReduction.WorkingpaperbasedonareviewofthecurrentliteraturecommissionedbyUNISDR.Geneva:SecretariattotheUnitedNationsInternationalStrategyforDisasterReduction.

In African countries,

agriculture represented

just 3–6% of government

spending depsite the severe

damage and losses caused by

disasters to the sector

Enhanced coherence between

humanitarian, development

and government investment

is needed to effectively

enhance the resillience

of agriculture

Conclusions, recommendations and the way forward

Whilethisstudyhelpstofillinformationgapsregardingtheimpactofdisasterson

agriculture,twocorechallengesneedtobeaddressed:(i)improvinginformation

systemsattheglobal,nationalandlocallevels;and(ii)furtherstrengtheningresilience

throughhigherinvestmentsinagriculture.

ImprovinginformationsystemsondisasterimpactforagricultureÚ Addressandovercomethestillsignificantdatagapsattheglobal,regional,

nationalandsubnationallevelsinordertogainafullandcoherent

understandingofthemagnitudeanddiversityofdisasterimpactonagriculture

anditssubsectors,andtobetterinformresilientandsustainablesectoral

developmentplanning,implementationandfundingandthedevelopment

ofinnovativeriskinsuranceschemesforagricultureandrurallivelihoods.

Ú Improveglobalandregionaldatabasesandinformationsystemsbasedon

nationaldata.Themethodologyforassessingimpactonthesectorshouldbe

improvedtobettercapturethefullextentofdisasterimpactonagriculture,its

subsectors,thefoodvaluechain,foodsecurity,environment/naturalresources/

ecosystemservicesassociatedwiththesector,andnationaleconomies.

Thisprecisionisnecessaryfortheformulationofwell-tailoredpolicies

andinvestmentsinthesector.

Ú Betterrecordandstandardizedatacollection,monitoringandreportingat

thecountrylevel,includingatthesubnationallevel.Similarly,adviseonthe

capacityavailabletodoso,whichmustbestrengthenedforgeneraldisasterrisk

managementandagriculturesectorriskmanagement.Thiscanbeachieved

throughcollaborationamongrelevantnationalinstitutionssuchasMinistries

ofAgriculture,ForestryandFisheriesandtheirdepartments,National

EmergencyManagementAgenciesandNationalBureauofStatistics.

Ú Attheglobalandnationallevels,systematicallyusedamageandloss

informationtomonitorandmeasureprogressinachievingtheresiliencegoals

andtargetsoftheSDGs,theSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction

2015–2030,andtheUniversalClimateChangeAgreementthatisexpected

undertheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange.

4.3

CHAPTERIVCorefindings,conclusionsandthewayforward54 55

StrengtheningresiliencethroughhigherinvestmentsinagricultureÚ Disasterriskreductionandmanagement(thebackboneofresilience)mustbe

systematicallyembeddedintoagriculturesectoralandsubsectoraldevelopment

plansandinvestments,particularlyincountriesfacingrecurrentdisastersand

whereagricultureisacriticalsourceoflivelihoods,foodsecurityandnutrition,

aswellasakeydriverofeconomicgrowth.

Ú Increasedfinancialresourcesshouldbedirectedtotheagriculturesector

indevelopingcountriesfromnationalgovernments,theprivatesectorand

developmentassistanceinamannerthatismoreconsistentwiththesector’s

crucialroleineradicatinghungerandachievingfoodsecurity,sustainable

agriculturaldevelopmentandeconomicgrowth.

Ú Humanitarianaidtotheagriculturesectorshouldbetterreflecttheimpactof

disastersonthesector.Disasterriskreductionandmanagementstrategies

shouldbefullyintegratedintopost-disasterrecoveryeffortsinthesectorto

ensurethatinvestmentsindisasterresponseandrecoveryalsobuildresilience

tofutureshocksratherthanrecreatingtherisksfacedbythesector.

Ú Nationalgovernmentsandtheinternationalcommunityshouldestablish

targetsforfinancingdisasterriskreductionintheagriculturesectorinorder

topreventandmitigatetheimpactofdisasters.

ThewayforwardItispromisingthatthreekeyinternationalcommitmentsatthetopoftheglobal

agendain2015recognizethesignificantimpactofdisastersandthevitalimportance

ofresilience.Inparticular,theexplicitinclusionofresilienceinthe2015SDGs

isexpectedtoprovideamajorpushalongthepathtoresilientandsustainable

agriculture.TwoGoalsinparticularareofrelevancetotheagriculturesector:Goal

2whichstrivesto“endhunger,achievefoodsecurityandimprovednutrition,and

promotesustainableagriculture”andissupportedbytarget2.4whichseeks,by2030,

to“ensuresustainablefoodproductionsystemsandimplementresilientagricultural

practicesthatincreaseproductivityandproduction,thathelpmaintainecosystems,

thatstrengthencapacityforadaptationtoclimatechange,extremeweather,drought,

floodingandotherdisasters,andthatprogressivelyimprovelandandsoilquality”;and

Goal13oncombatingclimatechangeanditsimpacts,withitstarget13.1whichseeks

to“strengthenresilienceandadaptivecapacitytoclimate-relatedhazardsanddisasters

inallcountries”88.Thisisacriticalgoalandtargetfortheagriculturesectorgivenits

extremevulnerabilitytoclimatevariabilityandchange.

AnothermilestoneistherecentlyagreedSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction

2015–2030,thesuccessortothe2005HyogoFrameworkforAction,whichisthe

primaryglobalinstrumentfordisasterriskreduction.TheSendaiFrameworkhas

renewedinternationalcommitmentandreflectsanenhancedframeworkthatbuildson

lessonslearnedandgoodpracticesworldwide.Furthermore,itisexpectedtogalvanize

andreinforceeffortstomainstreamriskreductionacrosstheagriculturesector,

particularlyinviewofitscoreoutcome:“thesubstantialreductionofdisasterriskand

lossesinlives,livelihoodsandhealthandintheeconomic,physical,social,cultural

andenvironmentalassetsofpersons,businesses,communitiesandcountries”.

Finally,theUniversalClimateChangeAgreementthatisemergingundertheUnited

NationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeisalsoexpectedtofurtherprogress

onresilience,inparticularthroughSDGGoal13oncombatingclimatechangeand

itsimpacts,anditsrelatedtarget13.1.AparallelinitiativeistheWarsawInternational

MechanismforLossandDamage–themainvehicleforaddressinglossanddamage

associatedwithclimatechangeimpactsindevelopingcountriesthatareparticularly

vulnerabletotheadverseeffectsofclimatechange.

Forallthreeglobalcommitments,monitoringtheachievementofagreedtargets

onresilienceastheyrelatetoagriculturedependsontheavailabilityofdataatthe

countryandgloballevelsontheimpactofdisastersonthesector.Inordertomeetthis

challengeandclosetheinformationgap,andaspartofFAO’scorporatecommitment

toresilienceandthethreeglobalagendas,theOrganizationwillhelpimprove

monitoringandreportingofdisasterimpactontheagriculturesectorbysupporting

MemberNationstocollectandreportrelevantdataandbyenhancingthemethodology

appliedtomeasure,atthegloballevel,theimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesector;

forexample,byimprovingstatisticalanalysisandincreasingthenumberofcountries,

disastersandcommoditiesanalysed.

88 Inadditiontothetwogoalsmentioned,resilienceisincludedinotherSDGs,including:Goal1:Endpovertyinallitsformseverywhere;Goal6:Ensureavailabilityandsustainablemanagementofwaterandsanitationforall;Goal7:Ensureaccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainableandmodernenergyforall;Goal12:Ensuresustainableconsumptionandproductionpatterns;Goal14:Conserveandsustainablyusetheoceans,seas,andmarineresourcesforsustainabledevelopment;andGoal15:Protect,restoreandpromotesustainableuseofterrestrialecosystems,sustainablymanageforests,combatdesertification,andhaltandreverselanddegradationandhaltbiodiversityloss.SeealsoFAO.2015.FAO and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

The explicit inclusion of

resilience in the 2015 SDGs

is a critical move that is

expected to provide a major

push along the path to

resilient and sustainable

agriculture

The Sendai Framework

is expected to galvanize

and reinforce efforts to

mainstream risk reduction

across the agriculture sector

ANNEXES

ANNEX1Glossary58 59

Annex 1. Glossary

Adaptation:Theadjustmentinnaturalorhumansystemsinresponsetoactualorexpectedclimaticstimuliortheir

effects,whichmoderatesharmorexploitsbeneficialopportunities.(UNISDR,2009)

Damage:Thetotalorpartialdestructionofphysicalassetsandinfrastructureinthedisaster-affectedareas,interms

oftheirmonetaryvalueexpressedasthereplacementcost.(EC,WorldBank,UN,2013)

Disaster:Aseriousdisruptionofthefunctioningofacommunityorasocietyinvolvingwidespreadhuman,material,

economicorenvironmentallossesandimpacts,whichexceedstheabilityoftheaffectedcommunityorsocietyto

copeusingitsownresources.(UNISDR,2009)

Disasterriskreduction:Theconceptandpracticeofreducingdisasterrisksthroughsystematiceffortstoanalyse

andmanagethecausalfactorsofdisasters,includingthroughreducedexposuretohazards,lessenedvulnerabilityof

peopleandproperty,wisemanagementoflandandtheenvironment,andimprovedpreparednessforadverseevents.

(UNISDR,2009)

Drought:Thetermdroughtmayrefertometeorologicaldrought(precipitationwellbelowaverage),hydrological

drought(lowriverflowsandwaterlevelsinrivers,lakesandgroundwater),agriculturaldrought(lowsoilmoisture),

andenvironmentaldrought(acombinationoftheabove).(IPCC,2007)

Foodsecurityandnutrition:Asituationthatexistswhenallpeople,atalltimes,havephysical,socialandeconomic

accesstosufficient,safeandnutritiousfoodthatmeetstheirdietaryneedsandfoodpreferencesforanactiveand

healthylife.

Hazard:Adangerousphenomenon,substance,humanactivityorconditionthatmaycauselossoflife,injuryorother

healthimpacts,propertydamage,lossoflivelihoodsandservices,socialandeconomicdisruption,orenvironmental

damage.(UNISDR,2009)

Losses:Changesineconomicflowsarisingfromthedisasterwhichcontinueuntiltheachievementoffulleconomic

recoveryandreconstruction.Typicallossesfortheagriculturesectorincludethedeclineinproductionofagriculture,

livestock,fisheries/aquacultureandforestryandpossiblehighercostsofproductioninthemandlowerrevenuesand

higheroperationalcostsintheprovisionofservices.(EC,WorldBank,UN,2013)

Naturalhazard:Naturalprocessorphenomenonthatmaycauselossoflife,injuryorotherhealthimpacts,property

damage,lossoflivelihoodsandservices,socialandeconomicdisruption,orenvironmentaldamage.(UNISDR2009)

Resilience:ForFAO,“resiliencetoshocks”istheabilitytopreventandmitigatedisastersandcrisesaswellasto

anticipate,absorb,accommodateorrecoverandadaptfromtheminatimely,efficientandsustainablemanner.This

includesprotecting,restoringandimprovinglivelihoodssystemsinthefaceofthreatsthatimpactagriculture,food

andnutrition(andrelatedpublichealth).(FAO,2013)

Risk:Thecombinationoftheprobabilityofaneventanditsnegativeconsequences.(UNISDR,2009)

Sustainabledevelopment:TheconceptofsustainabledevelopmentwasintroducedintheWorldConservation

Strategy(IUCN1980)andhaditsrootsintheconceptofasustainablesocietyandinthemanagementofrenewable

resources.AdoptedbytheWCEDin1987andbytheRioConferencein1992asaprocessofchangeinwhichthe

exploitationofresources,thedirectionofinvestments,theorientationoftechnologicaldevelopmentandinstitutional

changeareallinharmonyandenhancebothcurrentandfuturepotentialtomeethumanneedsandaspirations.

sustainabledevelopmentintegratesthepolitical,social,economicandenvironmentaldimensions.(IPCC,2007)

Annex 2. List of countries included in the quantitative analysis of production losses and changes in economic flows after disasters (Chapter II).

Thefollowinglistincludesallcountriesconsideredintheanalysisofcropandlivestockproductionlosses,changes

intradeflowsandchangesinagriculturevalue-addedgrowthafterdisasters(ChapterIIofthisreport).

Outofthese,67countrieswereincludedintheanalysisastheyexperiencedatleastonemedium-to-largescale

disasteraffecting250000peopleormorebetween2003and2013(basedondatafromEM-DATCRED).

Theselectedcountriesarehighlightedinbold.

Africa

Angola,Benin,Botswana,Burkina Faso,Burundi,CaboVerde,Cameroon,CentralAfrican

Republic,Chad,Comoros,Congo,Côted’Ivoire,DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,

Djibouti,EquatorialGuinea,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Gabon,Gambia,Ghana,Guinea,Guinea-

Bissau,Kenya,Lesotho,Liberia,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Mauritius,

Mayotte,Mozambique,Namibia,Niger,Nigeria,Réunion,Rwanda,SaintHelena,Sao

TomeandPrincipe,Senegal,Seychelles,SierraLeone,Somalia,South Africa,SouthSudan,

Sudan,Swaziland,Togo,Uganda,United Republic of Tanzania,Zambia,Zimbabwe.

Asia and

the Pacific

Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhutan,BruneiDarussalam,Cambodia,Democratic People’s

Republic of Korea,India,Indonesia,Iran (Islamic Republic of ),Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lao

People’s Democratic Republic,Malaysia,Maldives,Mongolia,Myanmar,Nepal,Pakistan,

Philippines,RepublicofKorea,Sri Lanka,Tajikistan, Thailand,Timor-Leste,Turkmenistan,

Uzbekistan, Viet Nam.

Latin America

and the

Caribbean

Anguilla;AntiguaandBarbuda;Argentina;Aruba;Bahamas;Barbados;Belize;Bolivia

(Plurinational State of );Bonaire;SintEustatiusandSaba;Brazil;BritishVirginIslands;

CaymanIslands;Chile;Colombia;CostaRica;Cuba;Curaçao;Dominica;Dominican

Republic;Ecuador;El Salvador;FalklandIslands(Malvinas);FrenchGuiana;Grenada;

Guadeloupe;Guatemala;Guyana;Haiti;Honduras;Jamaica;Martinique;Mexico;

Montserrat;Nicaragua;Panama;Paraguay;Peru;PuertoRico;SaintKittsandNevis;Saint

Lucia;SaintMartin(FrenchPart);SaintVincentandtheGrenadines;SaintBarthélemy;Sint

Maarten(partienéerlandaise);Suriname;TrinidadandTobago;TurksandCaicosIslands;

UnitedStatesVirginIslands;Uruguay;Venezuela(BolivarianRepublicof).

Near EastIraq,Israel,Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon,Oman,Qatar,SaudiArabia,Palestine,Syrian Arab

Republic,Turkey,UnitedArabEmirates,Yemen.

ANNEX3Listofcountriesanddisasterscoveredbythe78PDNAs60 61

Annex 3: List of countries and disasters covered by the 78 post-disaster needs assessments reviewed in the study (Chapter I)

ThefollowinglistincludesallcountriesanddisasterscoveredbythePDNAsreviewedinChapterIofthestudy.

APDNAisagovernment-ledexercisewiththesupportofrelevantinternationalorganizations,forassessing

economicdamagesandlosses,andtherecoveryprioritiesineachsectorafterlarge-scaledisasters.

Region Countries Number of disasters

Africa 13 13

AsiaandthePacific 15 27

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean 19 37

EasternEurope 1 1

Total 48countries 78disasters

Country Type of disaster and name Year Country Type of disaster and name Year

Bahamas HurricanesFrancesandJeannes 2004 ElSalvadorTropicalstormStananderuption

ofLlamatepecvolcano2005

Bangladesh Cyclone 2007 TropicalstormIda 2009

Belize

HurricaneDean 2007 TropicalstormAgatha 2010

TropicalDepression16 2008 Fiji TropicalcycloneEvan 2012

TropicalstormArthur 2008 Grenada HurricaneIvan 2004

Benin Flood 2010 Guatemala TropicalstormStan 2005

Bhutan Earthquake 2011TropicalstormAgatha

andvolcanoPacay2010

Bolivia LaNina 2008 TropicalDepression12E 2011

BurkinaFaso Flood 2009 Guyana Floods 2005

Cambodia

Cyclone 2009 Floods 2006

Floods 2013 Haiti HurricaneJeanne 2004

CaymanIslands

HurricaneIvan 2004TropicalstormFay,Hurricanes

Gustav,HannaandIke2008

HurricanePaloma 2008 Earthquake 2010

CentralAfricanRepublic

Flood 2009 India Tsunami 2004

Colombia Olainvernal 2010–2011 Flood,Bihar 2008

Djibouti Drought 2008–2011 Indonesia Tsunami 2004

Dominica HurricaneDean 2007 Earthquake 2006

DominicanRepublic

Floods 2003 Floods,Aceh 2006

HurricaneJeanne 2004 Earthquake(WestSumatra) 2009

TropicalstormNoel 2008

Country Type of disaster and name Year Country Type of disaster and name Year

Jamaica

HurricanIvan 2004

Pakistan

Cyclonesandfloods,BalochistanandSindh

2007

TropicalstormGustav 2008 Flood 2011

Kenya Drought 2008–2011 Flood,Sept 2012

LaoPeople’sDemocratic

Republic

Typhoon 2011 Flood 2010

Cyclone(Ketsana2009andFlood,Kammuri2008)

2009

Philippines

Cyclone,OndoyandPepeng 2009

TyphoonHaiyan 2013

Lesotho Flood 2011

SaintLucia

HurricaneDean 2007

Madagascar Cyclones:Fame,Ivan,Jokwe 2008 Floods 2013

Malawi Flood 2012SaintVincentand

GrenadinesFloods 2013

Maldives Tsunami 2004

Samoa

Tsunami 2009

Mexico

HurricaneStan 2005 Cyclone 2012

FloodsinTabasco 2007 Senegal Flood 2009

LluviasextremasinTabasco 2008 Seychelles Flood 2013

HurricaneWilma 2005 SriLanka Tsunami 2004

HurricaneEmily 2005 Suriname Floods 2006

Moldova Flood 2010 Thailand Floods 2011

Myanmar Cyclone,Nargis 2008 Togo Flood 2010

Namibia Flood 2009Turksand

CaicosislandsTropicalstormHannaand

HurricaneIke2008

Nicaragua HurricaneFelix 2007 Uganda Drought 2010–2011

Pakistan Earthquake 2005 Yemen Tropicalstorm03B 2008

ANNEX4DroughtsandpopulationaffectedinAfrica1980–201362 63

Annex 4. Droughts and population affected in Africa by subregion, by country, and by decade, 1980–2013 (Chapter III)

Northern Africa Northern Africa

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010sTotal Pop Affected

Country Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop AffectedAlgeria 1981 - - 2005 105000 -

380 000Morocco 1983,1984 - 1999 275000 - -Tunisia 1988 - - - -Total - 275 000 105 000

Western Africa Western Africa

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010sTotal Pop Affected

Country Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop AffectedBenin 1983 2100000 - - -

74 542 255

BurkinaFaso 1980,1988 1450000 1990,1995,1998 2696290 2001 - 2011,2014 6850000CaboVerde 1982 - 1992,1998 10000 2002 30000 -

Chad 1981 1500000 1993,1997 656000 2001,2009 3200000 2012 1600000Côted’Ivoire 1983 - - - -

Gambia 1980 500000 - 2002 - 2012 428000Ghana 1983 12500000 - - -Guinea 1981 - 1998 - - -

GuineaBissau 1982 - - 2002,2006 132000 -Liberia 1983 - - - -Mali 1980 1500000 1991 302000 2001,2005,2006 1025000 2010,2011 4100000

Mauritania 1980 1600000 1993,1997 467907 2001 1000000 2010,2011 1538000Niger 1980,1988 4500000 1990,1997 1638500 2001,2005,2009 14484558 2011 3000000

Nigeria 1983 3000000 - - -Senegal 1982 1200000 - 2002 284000 2011 850000

Togo 1983,1989 400000 - - -Total 30 250 000 5 770 697 20 155 558 18 366 000

Eastern Africa Eastern Africa

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010sTotal Pop Affected

Country Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year TotalPopAffected Year TotalPopAffectedBurundi - 1999 650000 2003,2005,2008,2009 2412500 2011 -

203 022 254

Djibouti 1980,1983,1988 255000 1996 100000 2001,2005,2007,2008 632750 2010 200258Eritrea 1993,1999 - 3900000 2008 1700000 -

Ethiopia 1983,1987,1989 21250000 1997,1998,1999 5886200 2003,2005,2008,2009 27800000 2011,2012 5805679Kenya 1984 600000 1991,1994,1997,1999 28500000 2004,2005,2008 9600000 2011,2014 9650000

Rwanda 1984,1989 480000 1996,1999 976545 2003 1000000 -Somalia 1980,1983,1987,1988 553500 - 2000,2004,2005,2008 4700000 2010,2012,2014 7350000Sudan 1980,1983,1987 11850000 1990,1991,1996 9360000 2000,2009 6300000 2012 3200000

UnitedRepublicofTanzania 1984,1988 2010000 1991,1996 3800000 2003,2004,2006 5854000 2011 1000000Uganda 1987 600000 1998,1999 826000 2002,2005,2008 2355000 2011 669000

Total 37 598 500 62 026 949 71654250 31742555

Central Africa Central Africa

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010sTotal Pop Affected

Country Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop AffectedCameroon - 1990 186900 2001,2005 - -

579 900

CentralAfricanRepublic 1983 - - - -Congo 1983 - - - -

DRCongo 1984 300000 - - -SaoTomeandPrincipe 1983 93000 - - -

Total 393 000 186 900 0 0

Southern Africa Southern Africa

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010sTotal Pop Affected

Country Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop AffectedAngola 1981,1985,1989 2480000 1997 2001,2004 25000 2012 1833900

86 269 729

Botswana 1982 1037300 1992 100000 2005 - -Comoros 1981 - - - -Lesotho 1983 500000 1992 331500 2002,2007 975000 2011 725515

Madagascar 1981,1988 1950000 - 2000,2002,2005,2008 1565290 -Malawi 1987 1429267 1990,1992 9800000 2002,2005,2007 8449435 2012 1900000

Mauritius - 1999 - - -

Mozambique 1981,1987 4758000 1991,1998 3300000 2001,2002,2003,2005,2007,2008 3239500 2010 460000

Namibia 1982 - 1991,1995,1998 438200 2001,2002 345000 2013 331000SouthAfrica 1980,1982,1986,1988 2170000 1991,1995 300000 2004 15000000 -Swaziland 1983,1984 - 1990 250000 2001,2007 1380000 -

Zambia 1982,1983 - 1991,1995 2973204 2005 1200000 -Zimbabwe 1982 - 1991,1998 5055000 2001,2007 8100000 2010,2013 3867618

Total 14 324 567 22 547 904 40 279 225 9 118 033

64 65

Annex 5. Methodology for the quantitative analysis of production losses and changes in economic flows after disasters (Chapter II)

A1.Selectionofnaturalhazards

Theidentificationofmajornaturalhazardsthatoccurredindevelopingcountriesbetween2003and2013wasbased

onthedatareportedbytheEM-DATCRED.Thedatabaseiscompiledfromvarioussources,includingUnitedNations

agencies,Non-governmentalOrganizations,insurancecompanies,researchinstitutesandpressagencies.

FivetypesofnaturalhazardsreportedinEM-DATCREDwereconsideredintheanalysisbasedontheirrelevance

foragricultureandlikelyimpactonthesector.Theseinclude:(1)droughts;(2)floods;(3)storms(includingtropical

cyclones,typhoonsandhurricanes);(4)earthquakes;and(5)volcaniceruptions.Thesedisastersaredefinedby

EM-DATCREDasfollows:

Ú Drought:Anextendedperiodofunusuallylowprecipitationthatproducesashortageofwaterforpeople,

animalsandplants.

Ú Flood:Theoverflowofwaterfromastreamchannelontonormallydrylandinthefloodplain(riverine

flooding),higher-than-normallevelsalongthecoastandinlakesorreservoirs(coastalflooding)aswellas

pondingofwateratornearthepointwheretherainfell(flashfloods).

Ú Storm:Atropicalstormoriginatesovertropicalorsubtropicalwatersandischaracterizedbyawarm-core,

non-frontalsynoptic-scalecyclonewithalowpressurecenter,spiralrainbandsandstrongwinds.Depending

ontheirlocation,tropicalcyclonesarereferredtoashurricanes(Atlantic,NortheastPacific),typhoons

(NorthwestPacific),orcyclones(SouthPacificandIndianOcean).

Ú Earthquake:SuddenmovementofablockoftheEarth’scrustalongageologicalfaultandassociatedground

shaking.

Ú VolcanicEruption:Atypeofvolcaniceventnearanopening/ventintheEarth’ssurfaceincludingvolcanic

eruptionsoflava,ash,hotvapor,gas,andpyroclasticmaterial.

Theselectionofnaturalhazardswasfurthernarrowedtomedium-to-largescaledisastersthatarelikelytohavean

impactonnationalagriculturalproductionfigures.ThetotalnumberofpeopleaffectedasreportedbyEM-DATCRED

isusedasaproxyindicatorfortheintensityofnaturalhazards.Thedisastersincludedintheanalysisarelimited

tothosehavingaffected250000peopleormore.Forcountriesaffectedbymorethanonemedium-to-largescale

disaster,theselectionwasfurthernarrowedtodisasterswithtotalpopulationaffectedabovetheaverage1.

Theapproachfollowedfortheselectionofnaturalhazardsissubjecttosomekeylimitations,including:

Ú TheinclusionofadisasterintheEM-DATCREDrequirescompliancewithanumberofcriteria,including:

(1)Tenormorepeoplereportedkilled;(2)Hundredormorepeoplereportedaffected;(2)Declarationofa

stateofemergency;and(4)Callforinternationalassistance.Asaresult,thelistofdisastersincludedinthe

databaseislikelytobeincomplete.

Ú Smalldisastersareexcludedfromtheanalysis.Althoughtheimpactofsmalldisastersonagricultureandfood

securityisextremelyrelevant,theselectionhadtobelimitedtomajordisasterswhoseimpactsonagriculture

productionarevisibleinnationalstatistics.Additionalresearchanddatacollectionatsubnationallevelshould

beconductedinordertocapturetheimpactofsmallerdisasters.

Ú Theminimumthresholdof250000peopleaffectedmayhaveledtotheexclusionofsomedisastersoccurred

insmallcountries,wheretotalpopulationaffectedwashighinrelativeterms,butstillbelowtheabsolute

threshold.

1 Anexceptionwasmadefordroughts,asalldroughtsaffecting250000peopleormorewereincludedintheanalysis.

A2.Assessmentofagricultureproductionlossesafternaturalhazards

Theanalysisofproductionlossesisfocusedonfourmaincategoriesofcropandlivestockcommodities,which

wereselectedbasedondataavailabilityandcross-countrycomparabilitycriteria,aswellasconsideringtheir

relevanceforfoodsecurity,sectoralgrowth,ruralincomeandfarmers’livelihoodsinthecountriesanalysed.These

include(1)cereals2;(2)pulses3;(3)keylivestockcommodities4;and(4)othercommodities,includingcashand

staplecropsselectedatcountrylevelbasedontotalproductionquantitiesandvalues,orspecificallymentionedin

countryassessmentsasbeingimpactedbydisasters.Theassessmentsreviewedfortheidentificationofkeyaffected

commoditiesinclude,amongothers,PDNAs,CropandFoodSecurityAssessmentMissions,EmergencyFood

SecurityAssessments.

Thequantitativeassessmentofproductionlosseswasmadebyanalysingyieldsandproductiontimeseriesatthe

countrylevel,usingdatafromFAOSTAT.Asafirststep,productionlosseswerecalculatedintonnesasfollows:

Ú Cereals,pulsesandothercropcommoditieslosseswereestimatedbycalculatingdecreasesincropyieldsin

theyearofdisasterandinthesubsequentyear,comparedwiththelong-termyieldlineartrend(1980–2013).

Theresultingyieldlosseswerethenmultipliedbytheareaharvestedinordertoobtainlostproduction

quantities(intonnes)aftereachdisasterandforeachcommodity.

Ú Livestockproductionlosses(intonnes)wereestimatedbycalculatingdecreasesintotalproductionofeach

livestockcommodityintheyearofdisasterandinthesubsequentyear,comparedwithlong-termproduction

lineartrend(1980–2013).

Lossesintonnesweremultipliedbyproducerpricesinordertoestimatethemonetaryvalueofproductionlosses

andhencetoobtainanestimationoftheeconomicimpactonlocalproducers.Resultsarepresentedasabsolute

monetaryvalueoflosses,andaspercentageofthetotalexpectedproductionvalue(i.e.lineartrendvalue)ofthe

analysedcommoditiesintheyearofdisasterandsubsequentyear.

DataonproducerpriceswereextractedfromFAOSTAT,whichreportspricesreceivedbyfarmersforprimarycrops,

liveanimalsandlivestockprimaryproductsascollectedatthefarmgateoratthefirstpointofsale.Severaldata

gapsarefoundinnationalproducerpricestimeseries.Toovercomepricedatalimitations,aregionalproducerprice

serieswasconstructedforeachcommodity,astheaverageofpricesavailablefortheanalysedcountriesineach

region(weightedbyGDP) 5.Further,regionalproducerpriceserieswereconvertedfromnominaltoconstantvalues

(2004–2006,USD)usingaggregatedproducerpriceindices.Aggregatedregionalconstantpriceseriesservedthe

triplepurposeof(1)facilitatingcomparisonacrosssubregions,(2)facilitatingcomparisonacrossdecades,

and(3)fillingpricedatagapsatthecountrylevel.

Finally,productionlossesintonneswerealsoconvertedintocalories.Thecaloriccontentofcropandlivestock

commoditieswasderivedfromFAOFoodCompositionTablesforinternationalandregionaluses.Theseinclude:

Ú FAOFoodCompositionTableforInternationalUse6;

Ú FAOFoodCompositionTableforUseinAfrica7;

Ú FAOFoodCompositionTableforUseinEastAsia8;

Ú INCAP’sFoodCompositionTableforUseinCentralAmerica9;

Ú FAOFoodCompositionTablefortheNearEast10.

CalorielossesarereportedasshareofpercapitaDESatthenationallevel.DESisafoodsecurityindicatorcalculated

byFAO.Itprovidesanindicationofnationalaverageenergysupply,expressedincaloriespercaputperday.Resultsare

presentedastheshareofDESlostaftereachdisasterattheregionallevel(averageofnationalDESlosses).

Importantly,theconversionofproductionlossesintopercapitaDESshouldbeusedforcomparativepurposesonly,

2 Barley;fonio;maize;millet;oats;paddyrice;rye;sorghum;wheat;andothercerealsnotelsewherespecified.3 Bambarabeans;broadbeansandhorsebeans;chickpeas;cowpeas;lentils;lupins;peas;pigeonpeas;vetches;andotherpulsesnotelsewherespecified.4 Cattlemeat;goatmeat;pigmeat;sheepmeat;cowmilk;goatmilk;sheepmilk.5 Foryearswhennopricedataareavailable,priceswerederivedusingregionalaggregatedproducerpriceindicesforlivestock,cerealsandpulses.

Theseindiceswereconstructedasaweightedaverageofaggregatedcereals,pulsesandlivestockproducerpriceindicesatthecountrylevel(basedondatafromFAOSTAT).

6 http://www.fao.org/docrep/x5557e/x5557e00.htm7 http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/x6877e/x6877e00.htm8 http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/x6878e/x6878e00.htm9 http://www.incap.int/index.php/es/?option=com_docman&task=doc_details&gid=80&Itemid=26810 http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/x6879e/x6879e00.HTM

ANNEX5MethodologyforChapterII

66 67

asproductionlossesafterdisastersdonotnecessarilytranslateintoanequivalentlossofpercapitaenergysupply.

Indeed,productionshortfallsmaybecompensatedinseveralwaysinordertoreducethenegativeimpactsonfood

security,including,amongothers:(1)increasesincommercialimportsandfoodaid;(2)useofstocks;(3)increase

insupplyofnon-affectedcommodities.Theeffectivenessofthesemeasureswouldlargelydependonthecapacityof

eachcountrytorespondtodisasterimpactsonagriculture,onacase-by-casebasis.

Thismethodologyissubjecttosomelimitationsthatshouldbekeptinmindwhenanalysingresults,including:

Ú Severaldatagapsarefoundinnationalproducerpricetimeseries.Regionalproducerpriceserieswere

constructedtoovercomedatalimitations.However,regionalseriesmayhideimportantdifferencesacross

nationalprices.

Ú Theimpactofdisastersonagricultureproductioncouldnotbeseparatedfromotherpossibledrivers

(e.g.conflicts,internationalpricetrends,publicpolicies).Additionalresearchisneededtoisolatedisasters’

impactsasmuchaspossiblefromotherpotentialidiosyncraticfactorsthatmayhaveaninfluenceoncrop

yieldsandlivestockproduction.

Ú Whiletheanalysisfocusesonlyonproductionlosses,itisacknowledgedthatproductionofsome

commoditiesmayhaveincreasedafterdisasters.Forexample,productionofresistantcropvarietiesmay

haveincreasedintheaftermathofdisasterstosubstitutelossesinaffectedcrops.Theanalysisofsubstitution

effectsbetweenagriculturalcommoditiesafterdisastersisoutsidethescopeofthisstudy.

Ú Theanalysisislimitedtoselectedcropandlivestockcommodities,anditexcludesdisasters’impactson

fisheriesandforestryproduction.Consequently,totalproductionlossesintheagriculturesectorarelikelyto

behigherthanreported.Additionalresearchshouldbeconductedtocoverallsectorsandcommodities.

A3.Assessmentofchangesintradeflowsafternaturalhazards

Theanalysisofchangesinagriculturaltradeflowsafterdisastersfocusedonfourcommodities,includingtwocrop

commodities,namelycerealsandpulses,andtwolivestockcommodities,namelymilkandmeat.

Theassessmentaimstoquantifyincreasesinthemonetaryvalueofimportsanddecreasesinthemonetaryvalueof

exportsofselectedcommoditiesafterdisasters.FAOSTATdataonthevalueofimportsandexportsbycommodity

(USD)wasusedtoconducttheassessment.ThevalueofexportsismostlyreportedasFreightonBoardand

calculatedastheannualamountactuallypaidforthegivencommoditywhensoldforexportationtothecompiling

country.ThevalueofimportsismostlyreportedasCostInsuranceandFreightandcalculatedastheannualamount

actuallypaidforthegivencommoditywhenpurchasedforimportationfromthecompilingcountry.Importsfor

re-exportaswellasfoodaidimportsarecomprisedintotalimports.Themonetaryvalueofimportsandexports

wasdeflatedtoensuremeaningfulcomparisonacrossthetimeperiodanalysed.

Increasesinimportswerecalculatedasincreasesinthemonetaryvalueofimportsintheyearofdisasterandfollowing

year,comparedtothelong-termlineartrendvalue(1980–2011).Thereportedfigurescorrespondtothedifference

betweentheactualvalueofimportsindisasteryearandfollowingyear,andthelineartrendvalueinthosesameyears.

Whenthelineartrendvaluewashigherthantheactualimportvalue,noincreasesinimportswereaccounted.

Similarly,decreasesinexportswerecalculatedasdecreasesinthemonetaryvalueofexportsintheyearofdisasterand

followingyear,comparedtothelong-termlineartrend(1980–2011).Decreasesinexportscorrespondtothedifference

betweenthelineartrendvalueindisasteryearandfollowingyear,andtheactualvalueofexportsinthosesameyears.

Whentheactualexportvaluewashigherthanthelineartrendvalue,nodecreasesinexportswereaccounted.

Resultsarepresentedasabsolutemonetaryvaluesofincreasesinimportsanddecreasesinexports,andasthe

percentageofthetotalexpectedvalueofimportsandvalueofexports(i.e.lineartrendvalue)oftheanalysed

commoditiesintheyearofdisasterandsubsequentyear.

Keylimitationsinclude:

Ú Sinceonlyarestrictednumberofagriculturalcommoditieshavebeenincludedintheanalysis,resultsshould

beconsideredtobehighlyconservative.Additionalresearchshouldbeconductedonchangesintradeflows

ofotheragriculturalcommodities.Inparticular,researchshouldbeconductedoncashcroptradeflowsafter

disasters,consideringtheirimportanceforexportrevenuesinmanydevelopingcountries.

Ú Foodaidismixedwithagriculturalcommercialimports.Therefore,partoftheincreasesinimportsreported

isattributabletopost-disasterreliefoperations.Whilethecostoffoodaidispartoftheeconomicimpactsof

disasters,itshouldbeseparatedfromtheimpactonnationaltradeflows,andincludedinaseparateanalysis.

Ú Theanalysisisconductedexclusivelyatthenationallevel.Therefore,considerationsonpost-disastertrade

balanceatsubregional,regionalorgloballevelareoutsidethescopeoftheassessment.Additionalresearch

shouldbeconductedtocovertheseaspects.

Ú Severalconcurringfactorsmightdeterminetheanalysedchangesintradeflows.In-depthresearchat

thenationallevelshouldbeconductedinordertofurtherexploretheroleplayedbydisastersinthe

observedchanges.

Ú Duetolackofdataonimportandexportvalues,thetimeframeisonlyuntil2011.Therefore,thesampleof

countriesanddisastersanalysedissmallerthanintheanalysisofproductionlosses.

A4.Assessmentofchangesinagriculturevalue-addedgrowthafternaturalhazards

Theassessmentofchangesinagriculturevalue-addedgrowthafterdisasterswasconductedusingdatafromthe

WorldBank’sWorldDevelopmentIndicators.Theindicatorsusedforquantifyingsectoralgrowthlossesare:

Ú Agriculture,valueadded(annualgrowthinpercentage),indicatingtheannualgrowthrateforagricultural

valueaddedbasedonconstantlocalcurrency11.

Ú Agriculture,valueadded(percentageofGDP),correspondingtothepercentagecontributionofagriculture

valueaddedtototalGDP.

Ú GDP(constant2005USD),namelythesumofgrossvalueaddedbyallresidentproducersintheeconomy

plusanyproducttaxesandminusanysubsidiesnotincludedinthevalueoftheproducts12.

Changesinagriculturevalueaddedannualgrowthafterdisasterswerecalculatedasanydecreaseinactualgrowth

rateintheyearofdisasterandfollowingyear,comparedwiththelineartrendvalue(2003–2013)inthesameyears.

Anydropinvalueaddedgrowthwithrespecttothelineartrendvaluewasaccountedasaloss.Inthecasewhenvalue

addedgrowthratesindisasteryearsandsubsequentyearswerefoundtobehigherthanthelineartrendvalue,no

losseswereaccounted.

Resultsarepresentedasaveragepercentagelossesinagriculturevalueaddedgrowthaftereachdisaster.Incases

whennolossesoccurred,disasterswereassignedazerovalue,andaccountedintheaverage.

Keylimitationsinclude:

Ú WorldBankdataonagriculturevalueaddedandGDPismissingforsomeofthecountriesanalysed.

Therefore,thesampleofcountriesanddisastersanalysedissmallerthanintheanalysisofproductionlosses.

Ú Theeffectofdisastersonagriculturegrowthwasnotseparatedfromseveralotheridiosyncraticfactorsthat

mayhaveaninfluenceonsectoralperformance.Consideringthecomplexityofmacroeconomicdynamics

withinandacrosskeyeconomicsectors,quantifyingthetrueimpactofdisastersonagriculturegrowthrates

wouldbeanextremelyarduoustask,especiallyforaglobalstudy.In-depthresearchshouldbeconducted

focusingonspecificdisastersandcountries,inordertogainadditionalinsightsonthecausalrelationship

betweennaturalhazardsandsectoreconomicgrowth.

11 Aggregatesarebasedonconstant2005USD.AgriculturecorrespondstoISICdivisions1–5andincludesforestry,huntingandfishing,aswellascultivationofcropsandlivestockproduction.See:http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.KD.ZG

12 Dataareinconstant2005USD.DollarfiguresforGDPareconvertedfromdomesticcurrenciesusing2000officialexchangerates.Forafewcountrieswheretheofficialexchangeratedoesnotreflecttherateeffectivelyappliedtoactualforeignexchangetransactions,analternativeconversionfactorisused.See:http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?display=graph

ANNEX5MethodologyforChapterII

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FAOSTAT http://faostat.fao.org/

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OCHA Financial Tracking Servicehttps://fts.unocha.org/

BIBLIOGRAPHY

www.fao.org/resilience

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