how to increase voter turnout ns dg edits

How to Increase Voter Turnoutw/ Professor Donald Green

September 3rd, 2008

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Jim Dean

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Matt Blizek

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Democracy for America

Donald GreenYale Professor & Author

Director of the Institution for Social & Policy Studies

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Evidence vs. War StoriesWhy Study GOTV tactics?

- Millions spent each year on GOTV

- Rigorous evaluation of GOTV tactics helps campaigns avoid squandering resources

Randomized experimental design- Voters randomly put into ‘Treatment’ & ‘Control’ groups

- Turnout is measured using public records instead of surveys or exit polls

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What WorksMake voters feel wanted

– The more personal the better

Don’t simply remind voters, motivate them!-- Have authentic conversations & follow up!

Peer pressure– Let them know that voting is a matter of public

record and that you’re watching

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What Doesn’t WorkShort reminders have no effect

- Robo calls and email reminders do nothing to increase turnout

- Brief calls from commercial phone banks have weak effects

Just distributing info isn’t enough- Distributing voter guides ineffective

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CanvassingShoe Leather Politics

Canvassing Generates Votes- 1 vote for every 14 contacts

Indirect persuasion - A canvasser’s message spreads through a multi-voter household

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Cost Effectiveness

Canvassing: $29 per vote

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ControlTreatment

PhonebanksPolitics Meets Telemarketing

‘Robo Calls’ ineffective- Doesn’t matter from whom-1 vote per 1,000+ contacts

Commercial Phonebanks typically ineffective- 1 vote per 180 contacts

Volunteer Phonebanks work- 1 vote per 38 contacts- Training & supervision needed for quality results

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Cost Effectiveness

Volunteers: $38 per vote

Commercial: $53-90 per vote

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Phone Calls

Direct Mail & Lit Drops• Generally weak effect on turnout• No evidence of ‘synergy’ w/ other tactics

Lit Drops = 1 vote per 72 dropsDirect Mail = 1 vote per 333 pieces

• Growing evidence that mail with no graphics and a simple civic duty message works best

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Cost Effectiveness

Lit Drops: $46+ per vote

Direct Mail: $67+ per vote

Other GOTV TacticsMass Media

– Targeted ads seem to have an effect: Example of Rock The Vote in 2004 & Spanish Language Radio in 2006

Election Day events, Debates & Seminars– Make civic engagement engaging

Email & Text Messages– Email does not increase turnout– Text messages may work, but need more study

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Frontiers of GOTV Research

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Effects of social networks– Contact from family, friends, coworkers and other social

ties has a strong effect Following up with “Yes” voters

– Large effects of follow-up calls with those who earlier express an intention to vote

‘Shaming’ effect of publicizing turnout records– Publishing, mailing, or distributing turnout records of voters

and their neighbors produces large increases in turnout

Voting as a habit– For every 100 new voters mobilized in a given election, 33

go on to vote in the next election as well

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HomeworkFor more GOTV research visit:

http://research.yale.edu/GOTV/

Conduct your own GOTV experiment!

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Next Month on Night School

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Building Your Volunteer Base September 10th, 2008www.democracyforamerica.com/volunteer

Canvassing & PhonebankingSeptember 17th, 2008www.democracyforamerica.com/canvass

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