1. Miguel Centellas
Croft Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science
The University of Mississippi
Voter Turnout in Europe & the Americas

2. Data from International IDEA
Freely available on the web, along with background information.
3. Data from International IDEA
Freely available on the web, along with background information.
4. Sample Selection: 51 Countries in Europe & the Americas
Europe
Albania Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech RepublicDenmark Estonia Finland France GermanyGreeceHungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia LithuaniaLuxembourg Malta The Netherlands NorwayPoland Portugal Romania Slovenia Spain SwedenSwitzerland United Kingdom
The Americas
Argentina Bolivia Brazil Canada Chile ColombiaCosta Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Jamaica Mexico NicaraguaPanama Peru Suriname United States Uruguay Venezuela
5. Sample Selection: 51 Countries in Europe & the Americas
Established Democracies
Austria Belgium Canada Colombia Costa RicaDenmark Finland France Germany IcelandIreland Italy Luxembourg Malta The NetherlandsNorwaySwedenSwitzerland United Kingdom
United States Venezuela
New Democracies
Albania Argentina Bolivia Brazil Bulgaria ChileCzech Republic Dominican Republic Ecuador
El Salvador Estonia Greece Guatemala HondurasHungary Jamaica Latvia Lithuania MexicoNicaragua Panama Peru Poland Portugal
Romania Slovenia Spain Suriname Uruguay
6. Voter Turnout in 51 Selected CountriesVote/VAP* in Legislative Elections, 2004-2008
All data from International IDEA (http://idea.int/vt)
VAP=Voting Age Population
7. How Can We Explain Differences in Voter Turnout?
Hypothesis 1:Voter turnout is a function of electoral systems. Proportional representation should drive up voter turnout because voters are less likely to waste votes.
Hypothesis 2:Voter turnout is a function of civil & political liberties. Citizens will exercise their right to vote if they enjoy a wide range of civil rights and political liberties.
Hypothesis 3:Voter turnout is a function of voting laws. Where voting is compulsory, citizens are more likely to vote.
8. Voter Turnout in 51 Selected CountriesVote/VAP in Legislative Elections, 2004-2008Data from International IDEA (http://idea.int/vt)
9. Voter Turnout and Level of FreedomVote/VAP and Freedom House Index Scores
10. Voter Turnout and Level of FreedomVote/VAP and Freedom House Index Scores
11. Voter Turnout and Compulsory Voting
Average = 62%
(STDEV = 16.7%)
Average = 69%
(STDEV = 13.7%)
12. Regression Analysis Output in STATA
13. Regression Estimates for Voter Turnout
14. Regression Estimates for Voter Turnout
15. After Statistical Analysis:What Explains Differences in Voter Turnout?
By itself, proportional representation does correlate with voter turnout. But in multivariate analysis, it has no statistically significant effect.
By itself, a countrys Freedom House score does correlate with voter turnout. This variable also is consistently significant in multivariate models.
By itself, compulsory voting has no affect on voter turnout. However, it does have a significant, positive effect on voter turnout in new democracies.
16. What Did We Learn?
Voters are more likely to turn out to vote (controlling for other factors) when civil liberties and political rights are protected.