how to increase voter turnout ns dg edits
TRANSCRIPT
How to Increase Voter Turnoutw/ Professor Donald Green
September 3rd, 2008
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Matt Blizek
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Democracy for America
Donald GreenYale Professor & Author
Director of the Institution for Social & Policy Studies
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Evidence vs. War StoriesWhy Study GOTV tactics?
- Millions spent each year on GOTV
- Rigorous evaluation of GOTV tactics helps campaigns avoid squandering resources
Randomized experimental design- Voters randomly put into ‘Treatment’ & ‘Control’ groups
- Turnout is measured using public records instead of surveys or exit polls
4 Questions? [email protected]
What WorksMake voters feel wanted
– The more personal the better
Don’t simply remind voters, motivate them!-- Have authentic conversations & follow up!
Peer pressure– Let them know that voting is a matter of public
record and that you’re watching
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What Doesn’t WorkShort reminders have no effect
- Robo calls and email reminders do nothing to increase turnout
- Brief calls from commercial phone banks have weak effects
Just distributing info isn’t enough- Distributing voter guides ineffective
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CanvassingShoe Leather Politics
Canvassing Generates Votes- 1 vote for every 14 contacts
Indirect persuasion - A canvasser’s message spreads through a multi-voter household
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Cost Effectiveness
Canvassing: $29 per vote
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One Voter Households Two Voter Households
ControlTreatment
PhonebanksPolitics Meets Telemarketing
‘Robo Calls’ ineffective- Doesn’t matter from whom-1 vote per 1,000+ contacts
Commercial Phonebanks typically ineffective- 1 vote per 180 contacts
Volunteer Phonebanks work- 1 vote per 38 contacts- Training & supervision needed for quality results
9 Questions? [email protected]
Cost Effectiveness
Volunteers: $38 per vote
Commercial: $53-90 per vote
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Vot
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Control
Phone Calls
Direct Mail & Lit Drops• Generally weak effect on turnout• No evidence of ‘synergy’ w/ other tactics
Lit Drops = 1 vote per 72 dropsDirect Mail = 1 vote per 333 pieces
• Growing evidence that mail with no graphics and a simple civic duty message works best
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Cost Effectiveness
Lit Drops: $46+ per vote
Direct Mail: $67+ per vote
Other GOTV TacticsMass Media
– Targeted ads seem to have an effect: Example of Rock The Vote in 2004 & Spanish Language Radio in 2006
Election Day events, Debates & Seminars– Make civic engagement engaging
Email & Text Messages– Email does not increase turnout– Text messages may work, but need more study
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Frontiers of GOTV Research
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Effects of social networks– Contact from family, friends, coworkers and other social
ties has a strong effect Following up with “Yes” voters
– Large effects of follow-up calls with those who earlier express an intention to vote
‘Shaming’ effect of publicizing turnout records– Publishing, mailing, or distributing turnout records of voters
and their neighbors produces large increases in turnout
Voting as a habit– For every 100 new voters mobilized in a given election, 33
go on to vote in the next election as well
HomeworkFor more GOTV research visit:
http://research.yale.edu/GOTV/
Conduct your own GOTV experiment!
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Next Month on Night School
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Building Your Volunteer Base September 10th, 2008www.democracyforamerica.com/volunteer
Canvassing & PhonebankingSeptember 17th, 2008www.democracyforamerica.com/canvass
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