future challenges population

Future ChallengesPopulation

Students Learn about• current and future population trends:• growth rates, age structure and spatial

distribution DONE in population unit• government population policies to

manage population growth • implications of population trends:• ecological sustainability • population movement and urban planning

Students Learn to• identify and discuss government

population policies:• growth rates DONE • Refugees DONE• migration DONE• analyse current and future

population trends and their implications

Describe the current trends in Australia’s population

growth. • Australia’s population is currently growing at its fastest

rate in almost 20 yrs. Australia’s population is currently growing at its fastest rate in almost 20 yrs with the most recent increase of 1.5% or 318,500 people to September 2007

• The federal Government’s baby bonus had helped lift the nation's fertility rate from a record low of 1.73 in 2001 to 1.81 in the latest census in 2006

• The Government is encouraging migrants because of the skills shortage.

• China and India are becoming increasingly important contributors to our migrant intake.

• Net overseas migration contributed 56% to the total population growth which translates to a record net 177,600 migrating to Australia.

Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947

to 2005Source: ABS 1986 and Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Year

Num

ber

Net Migration

Natural Increase

Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2004 Source: Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins

Expectation of Life at BirthMales Females

1947 66.1 70.62004 78.1 83.0

Expectation of Life from Birth 1920 to 2051

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

Years1920-

22

Years1932-

34

Years1946-

48

Years1953-

55

Years1960-

62

Years1970-

72

Years1980-

82

Years1990-

92

Year1998

Year2005

Year2041

Year2051

Years (Red are projections only)

ABS: Deaths - 3302.0 - 1920-98

Expe

ctat

ion

of L

ife fr

om B

irth

(Yea

rs)

Females Males

Expectation of Life at BirthMales Females

1947 66.1 70.62004 78.1 83.0

Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2004Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues

Australia: Annual Migration, 1850-2005Source: Price 1979; Hugo 1986; ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures

Bulletins; DIMA 2000, 2002; DIMIA Movements Data Base

From Pyramid to CoffinChanging Age Structure of the Australian Population, 1925-2045

Source: Productivity Commission 2005

ABS Labour force projections 3222.0

Population projections

Australia’s Population Issues

• Numbers of People

• Age Structure – Ageing

• Distribution

Projections of Australia’s Aged and Working Age Population

Source: ABS

Number by Age

Year 0-14 15-64 65+65+ as

% 15-64

2003 3,981,538 13,344,685

2,546,423

19.1

2011 3,840,000 14,532,900

3,155,600

21.7

2021 3,752,700 15,172,300

4,443,400

29.3

2031 3,826,400 15,348,100

5,741,000

37.4

Annual Growth Rate (%)2003-11 -0.45 1.07 2.722011-21 -0.23 0.43 3.482021-31 +0.19 0.12 2.60

Planning Implications: The National Level

Projections of Commonwealth Demographic Spending (Percent of GDP)

Source: Costello, 2002, 59

Policy ImplicationsHow Can the Effects of Ageing be

Offset?• Need to increase productivity

• Role of immigration, especially in short term

• Increase age at retirement

• Increase participation rates at younger ages

Implications of population trends

• Very debatable • Some economists/politicians believe that

Australia’s population growth will result in resource creation, and economic growth and that technology will be able to overcome the environmental problems created by the increase in population.

• In contrast, some scientists/ ecologists believe that

population growth will only worsen the problems of resource depletion , water availability and quality, land degradation, pollution and habitat loss.

• Australia has little chance of altering its population growth rate by natural means in the near future, but is can decide on the number of immigrants allowed to enter the country.

• Without an immigration intake Australia’s population would grow very slowly and may even start to decline.

• Economists argue that this would limit Australia’s economic potential and result in a decline in living standards.

Population and Environment

There are real environmental constraints on population growth in Australia.

• Water

• Soil and Land

• Global warming – Greenhouse Gases

• Biodiversity

• Pollution

Implications of population trends: Ecological sustainability

• There are environmental constraints on population growth in Australia

• Little is known of the relationship between population and environment and there is a need for an evidence base to inform policy

• Australia needs a population policy

Population change in Australia should be compatible with sustainable development

- meet basic needs of all citizens- give all citizens opportunity to develop

and realise their individual potential- should not endanger the natural

systems that support life on earth

Australia’s Population Policy Should Aim at Working Towards:

• Achieving a stable population with a balance between working and non-working age groups.

• Enhancing the productivity of the population.

• Achieving a spatial distribution of the population which is compatible with long-term sustainability, economic efficiency and social wellbeing.

Conclusion• Population and ageing issues in Australia is

manageable.

• Not as extreme as Europe or Japan.

• There is a breathing space period to put policies in place to successfully confront ageing.

Population Movement and urban planning

• ABC podcast 20 Oct 2008• http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/a

udio/pm/200810/20081020-pm07-sydney2036.mp3

• http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2396385.htm Accompanying transcript