cans: wales and scotland richard wyn jones wales governance centre cardiff university

CANS: Wales and Scotland

Richard Wyn Jones

Wales Governance Centre

Cardiff University

Context

Only W & S – no funding for England / English region i.e. no data on what we know least about Problematic in terms of thinking about solidarity

etc. Thus far, we have done little analysis –

enough to satisfy funder in W! Simple (simplistic?) overview of key themes

Agenda

1. Multi-level voting

2. Support for ‘regionalisation’

3. Identification with / perceived significance of various scales

4. Competencies

5. The devolution paradox

6. Territorial solidarity

Multi-level voting, CANS 2009

WALES SCOTLAND

Devo. UK Devo. UK

Cons 12 25.6 6.3 14.2

Labour 23.6 31.8 23.6 38.5

LibDem 5.6 9.3 5.3 8.5

NATS 20.9 6.3 36.5 16.3

Others 3.2 3.0 2.3 2.3

No vote 6.7 5.8 5.1 5.5

DK/NA 28.1 18.2 20.8 14.6

Which party best stands up for X?

WALES SCOTLAND

Con 6.3 4.6

Labour 21.0 19.9

LibDem 3.3 19.9

NATS 32.4 43.4

Others 3.1 1.7

DK/NA 33.7 28.2

Constitutional Preferences

WALES SCOTLAND

No devo 9.0 6.9

Fewer powers 6.3 4.0

Status Quo 27.6 27.6

More powers 41.6 38.9

Independence 13.9 20.0

DK/NA 1.6 2.5

Has / Should Have Most Influence?

HAS SHOULD HAVE

WALES SCOT WALES SCOT

Devolved 40.1 38.3 70.3 73.1

UK 49.1 49.2 25.8 23.0

EU 6.2 7.9 1.7 1.6

Other/ DK/NA

4.8 4.6 2.2 2.1

Identities & Perceived Significance of Scale

Despite significant differences (demographic etc.) ‘nested’ identities norm in W & S

Neighbourhood and the two ‘national’ levels stand out in terms of attachment

Local Authority and the two ‘national’ levels stand out in terms of perceived importance

Of the two ‘national’layers, ‘regional’ level viewed in significantly more positive light than ‘state’ level.

National ID

WALES SCOTLAND

X not British 10.7 19.4

More X than Brit 28.6 40.8

Equally X & Brit 33.4 25.9

More Brit than X 9.8 3.8

British not X 15.2 6.7

Other/DK/NA 2.4 1.6

Scales and Attachment, % VERY attached

Locality L.A. WALES/SCOT

UK Europe

WALES 51.4 24.2 69.3 49.1 13.6

SCOT 52.8 27.1 79.9 43.1 14.4

Importance of decisions made, % VERY important

LA Devolved UK Europe

WALES 45.2 46.7 50.0 19.4

SCOT 51.2 57.7 52.4 26.2

“X doesn’t care much what people like me think”, % Agree Strongly and Agree

Devolved UK Govt Euro.

WALES 38.9 51.9 61.3

SCOTLAND 34.7 49.1 66.1

Location of Policy Competences?

In W & S public attitudes seem to mirror perceptions of the prevailing division of responsibilities...

Location of Policy Competences, Wales PROTECTING

THE ENVIRONMENT

REDUCING UNEMPLOYMENT

CRIME REDUCTION

EDUCATION HEALTH

Wales 35.8 28.3 30.9 53.3 52.7 UK 40.0 63.8 62.2 42.4 42.7 Europe 20.1 3.3 2.4 1.4 1.9 Don’t know/ No Answer

4.1 4.6 4.5 2.8 2.8

Number of respondents = 900

Location of Policy Competences, Scotland

ENVIRONMENT REDUCING

UNEMPLOYMENT CRIME

REDUCTION EDUCATION HEALTH

Scotland 37.4 37.0 46.2 64.9 56.1 UK 32.3 54.8 45.6 29.8 38.7 Europe 25.7 4.0 3.7 2.7 2.8 Don’t know/ No Answer

4.6 4.2 5.4 2.6 2.3

Number of respondents = 914

The Devolution Paradox...

On the one hand, electorate supportive of devolution and want more of it. They also seem to be supportive of individual examples of policy divergence...

However, on the other hand the electorate remains hostile to policy divergence (at the state level) per se.

Degree of desired policy divergence

UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT

HE TUITION FEES

PAYING FOR CARE

OF THE ELDERLY

PUNISHING YOUNG

OFFENDERS

WAL SCOT WAL SCOT WAL SCOT WAL SCOT

Uniform across UK

73.8 67.4 62.8 50.8 71.1 59.2 79.6 63.0

Matter for Wales/Scotland

24.4 30.7 35.9 46.9 28.1 39.6 19.6 35.7

Don’t Know/ No Answer

1.8 1.9 1.3 2.3 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.3

Number of respondents: Wales = 900, Scotland = 914

Territorial Solidarity

Note limitations of data here... Wales is poor Perceptions of Scotland mixed No data on a donor region

Nonetheless, strong sense of solidarity in evidence in W & S

Perceptions of relative prosperity compared to rest of UK

WALES SCOTLAND

Better 9.1 37.1

Worse 39.6 24.3

No different 48.6 34.9

DK/NA 2.8 3.7

Territorial Solidarity

UK govt even out economic differences

Transfer money from richer to poorer parts

Wales Scotland Wales Scotland Agree Strongly 35.2 27.7 41.0 37.4 Agree 45.9 43.7 39.0 41.4 Agree Strongly + Agree 81.1 71.4 80.0 78.8 Disagree 13.3 19.9 15.6 16.3 Disagree Strongly 3.7 5.3 2.8 3.8 Don’t know/ No Answer 1.9 3.5 1.7 1.1 Number of respondents: Wales = 900, Scotland = 914