cans: wales and scotland richard wyn jones wales governance centre cardiff university
TRANSCRIPT
CANS: Wales and Scotland
Richard Wyn Jones
Wales Governance Centre
Cardiff University
Context
Only W & S – no funding for England / English region i.e. no data on what we know least about Problematic in terms of thinking about solidarity
etc. Thus far, we have done little analysis –
enough to satisfy funder in W! Simple (simplistic?) overview of key themes
Agenda
1. Multi-level voting
2. Support for ‘regionalisation’
3. Identification with / perceived significance of various scales
4. Competencies
5. The devolution paradox
6. Territorial solidarity
Multi-level voting, CANS 2009
WALES SCOTLAND
Devo. UK Devo. UK
Cons 12 25.6 6.3 14.2
Labour 23.6 31.8 23.6 38.5
LibDem 5.6 9.3 5.3 8.5
NATS 20.9 6.3 36.5 16.3
Others 3.2 3.0 2.3 2.3
No vote 6.7 5.8 5.1 5.5
DK/NA 28.1 18.2 20.8 14.6
Which party best stands up for X?
WALES SCOTLAND
Con 6.3 4.6
Labour 21.0 19.9
LibDem 3.3 19.9
NATS 32.4 43.4
Others 3.1 1.7
DK/NA 33.7 28.2
Constitutional Preferences
WALES SCOTLAND
No devo 9.0 6.9
Fewer powers 6.3 4.0
Status Quo 27.6 27.6
More powers 41.6 38.9
Independence 13.9 20.0
DK/NA 1.6 2.5
Has / Should Have Most Influence?
HAS SHOULD HAVE
WALES SCOT WALES SCOT
Devolved 40.1 38.3 70.3 73.1
UK 49.1 49.2 25.8 23.0
EU 6.2 7.9 1.7 1.6
Other/ DK/NA
4.8 4.6 2.2 2.1
Identities & Perceived Significance of Scale
Despite significant differences (demographic etc.) ‘nested’ identities norm in W & S
Neighbourhood and the two ‘national’ levels stand out in terms of attachment
Local Authority and the two ‘national’ levels stand out in terms of perceived importance
Of the two ‘national’layers, ‘regional’ level viewed in significantly more positive light than ‘state’ level.
National ID
WALES SCOTLAND
X not British 10.7 19.4
More X than Brit 28.6 40.8
Equally X & Brit 33.4 25.9
More Brit than X 9.8 3.8
British not X 15.2 6.7
Other/DK/NA 2.4 1.6
Scales and Attachment, % VERY attached
Locality L.A. WALES/SCOT
UK Europe
WALES 51.4 24.2 69.3 49.1 13.6
SCOT 52.8 27.1 79.9 43.1 14.4
Importance of decisions made, % VERY important
LA Devolved UK Europe
WALES 45.2 46.7 50.0 19.4
SCOT 51.2 57.7 52.4 26.2
“X doesn’t care much what people like me think”, % Agree Strongly and Agree
Devolved UK Govt Euro.
WALES 38.9 51.9 61.3
SCOTLAND 34.7 49.1 66.1
Location of Policy Competences?
In W & S public attitudes seem to mirror perceptions of the prevailing division of responsibilities...
Location of Policy Competences, Wales PROTECTING
THE ENVIRONMENT
REDUCING UNEMPLOYMENT
CRIME REDUCTION
EDUCATION HEALTH
Wales 35.8 28.3 30.9 53.3 52.7 UK 40.0 63.8 62.2 42.4 42.7 Europe 20.1 3.3 2.4 1.4 1.9 Don’t know/ No Answer
4.1 4.6 4.5 2.8 2.8
Number of respondents = 900
Location of Policy Competences, Scotland
ENVIRONMENT REDUCING
UNEMPLOYMENT CRIME
REDUCTION EDUCATION HEALTH
Scotland 37.4 37.0 46.2 64.9 56.1 UK 32.3 54.8 45.6 29.8 38.7 Europe 25.7 4.0 3.7 2.7 2.8 Don’t know/ No Answer
4.6 4.2 5.4 2.6 2.3
Number of respondents = 914
The Devolution Paradox...
On the one hand, electorate supportive of devolution and want more of it. They also seem to be supportive of individual examples of policy divergence...
However, on the other hand the electorate remains hostile to policy divergence (at the state level) per se.
Degree of desired policy divergence
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT
HE TUITION FEES
PAYING FOR CARE
OF THE ELDERLY
PUNISHING YOUNG
OFFENDERS
WAL SCOT WAL SCOT WAL SCOT WAL SCOT
Uniform across UK
73.8 67.4 62.8 50.8 71.1 59.2 79.6 63.0
Matter for Wales/Scotland
24.4 30.7 35.9 46.9 28.1 39.6 19.6 35.7
Don’t Know/ No Answer
1.8 1.9 1.3 2.3 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.3
Number of respondents: Wales = 900, Scotland = 914
Territorial Solidarity
Note limitations of data here... Wales is poor Perceptions of Scotland mixed No data on a donor region
Nonetheless, strong sense of solidarity in evidence in W & S
Perceptions of relative prosperity compared to rest of UK
WALES SCOTLAND
Better 9.1 37.1
Worse 39.6 24.3
No different 48.6 34.9
DK/NA 2.8 3.7
Territorial Solidarity
UK govt even out economic differences
Transfer money from richer to poorer parts
Wales Scotland Wales Scotland Agree Strongly 35.2 27.7 41.0 37.4 Agree 45.9 43.7 39.0 41.4 Agree Strongly + Agree 81.1 71.4 80.0 78.8 Disagree 13.3 19.9 15.6 16.3 Disagree Strongly 3.7 5.3 2.8 3.8 Don’t know/ No Answer 1.9 3.5 1.7 1.1 Number of respondents: Wales = 900, Scotland = 914