AKST ACHIEVEMENTS, AKST ACHIEVEMENTS, LIMITS AND LIMITS AND

CHALLENGES IN THE CHALLENGES IN THE CWANA REGION CWANA REGION

Presentation is based on IAASTD: Presentation is based on IAASTD:

Historical and current perspectives of AKST in CWANAHistorical and current perspectives of AKST in CWANAK. Latiri, A. Gana, K. Shideed, J. Albergel, S. Grando, Y. Kaya, F. Panhwar, M. Qadir, K. Latiri, A. Gana, K. Shideed, J. Albergel, S. Grando, Y. Kaya, F. Panhwar, M. Qadir,

A.Tan , S.TozanliA.Tan , S.Tozanli

OUTLINE: CWANA regionOUTLINE: CWANA region

The CWANA regionThe CWANA region Agricultural Production during the last 50 Agricultural Production during the last 50

years and AKST achievementsyears and AKST achievements Consequences on NR Consequences on NR Social challenges in the CWANA regionSocial challenges in the CWANA region AKST, Research challenges and prioritiesAKST, Research challenges and priorities

The CWANA regionThe CWANA regionTotal area : Total area : 14%14% (18.5 M km²)(18.5 M km²)Population: Population: 10%10%Water resources : Water resources : 2%2%

•PPoorest region in the world in terms of water resources, globally and per inhabitant.

•Most countries are subject to drought

•Water scarcity is expected to

intensify due to climate change.

North AfricaNile Valley and Red Sea

Arabian Peninsula

South and West Asia

Central Asia and Caucasus

Algeria Djibouti Bahrain Afghanistan ArmeniaLibya Egypt Kuwait Iran AzerbaijanMauritania Somalia Oman Iraq KazakhstanMorocco Sudan Qatar Jordan Kyrgyz RepublicTunisia Yemen Saudi Arabia Lebanon Tajikistan

U.A. Emirates Pakistan TurkmenistanPalestine UzbekistanSyriaTurkey

North AfricaNile Valley and Red Sea

Arabian Peninsula

South and West Asia

Central Asia and Caucasus

Algeria Djibouti Bahrain Afghanistan ArmeniaLibya Egypt Kuwait Iran AzerbaijanMauritania Somalia Oman Iraq KazakhstanMorocco Sudan Qatar Jordan Kyrgyz RepublicTunisia Yemen Saudi Arabia Lebanon Tajikistan

U.A. Emirates Pakistan TurkmenistanPalestine UzbekistanSyriaTurkey

Drought risk in the CWANADrought risk in the CWANA

Agricultural production Agricultural production takes place in a difficult takes place in a difficult context:context:

Rainfall is low, Rainfall is low, Rainfed agriculture is Rainfed agriculture is

subject to high drought risksubject to high drought risk Renewable water Renewable water

resources are reduced andresources are reduced and Irrigated production is Irrigated production is

limited because of the limited because of the limited water resourceslimited water resources

National Rainfall indices

Potential drought risk for rainfed agriculture

Source: FAO database, Pardey et al (2006)

Land use in CWANALand use in CWANA

MhaMha %%

Agricultural Agricultural landland

992992

Permanent Permanent PasturePasture

819819 82.682.6

Arable Arable

LandLand

159159 16.016.0

Irrigated Irrigated areaarea

6363 6.36.3

Permanent Permanent CropsCrops

1414 1.41.4

Highest value agricultural production

Share of irrigated land in arable land

Source: FAO database

Agricultural production and YieldAgricultural production and YieldCereal production in the CWANA region

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Cereal yield (t/ha) in the CWANA region

01122334455

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fruit production in the CWANA region

05000000

100000001500000020000000

2500000030000000

3500000040000000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Fruit yield (t/ha) in the CWANA region

02468

1012141618

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Vegetable production in the CWANA region

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Vegetable yield (t/ha) in the CWANA region

0

5

10

15

20

25

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

05

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

World CWANA North Africa Nile Valley and Red Sea

Arabian peninsula South West Asia Central Asia and Caucasus

Food production per capitaFood production per capita

Food production per Food production per capitacapita didn’t increase: Expanding agricultural production failed to keep pace with the rapid growth in demand and self-sufficiency ratios declined. This trend is expected to continue.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1961-1965

1966-1970

1971-1975

1976-1980

1981-1985

1986-1990

1991-1995

1996-2000

2000-2005

Date rangekg

/cap

itaSouth and West Asia Nile Valley and Red Sea Central Asia and Caucasus

North Africa Arabian Peninsula CWANA

World

Source: FAO database

Grain production per capita (1961-2005)Grain production per capita (1961-2005)

Food consumptionFood consumption Significant progress was

made in raising the per capita daily food consumption in kcalories per person since the 1960s.

Average daily food intake dominated by cereals, with animal products far behind world averages.

Source: FAO databaseSource: FAO database

Composition of per capita daily food intake

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Nor

th A

fric

a

Ara

bian

pen

insu

la

Sou

th a

nd W

est A

sia

Nile

Val

ley

and

Red

Sea

Wor

ld

Nor

th A

fric

a

Ara

bian

pen

insu

la

Sou

th a

nd W

est A

sia

CA

C

Nile

Val

ley

and

Red

Sea

Wor

ld

kcal

ori

e/ca

pit

a/d

ay

Cereals & pulses Pulses Sugar & Sweeteners

Fruits & vegetables Meat, eggs & fish Milk

Alcoholic beverages & spices Fats, oils & nuts

Composition of per capita daily food intake (1960-2005)

Poverty, Hunger and malnutritionPoverty, Hunger and malnutrition

Progress do not reflect the uneven food distribution among the socioeconomic classes and poor rural areas:

Less than 10 percent of the population is declared undernourished. In some countries, level can be much higher (Pakistan, 38%, Afghanistan,

39%, Yemen,45%, ….).

Source: World bank, An online Atlas of the MDG

Agricultural trade balanceAgricultural trade balance

Agricultural production is insufficient to fulfill the needs of its large population; imports are high, and deficit in agricultural trade balance is increasing.

In Calories

% (Export-Import)/consumption

Source: FAO database

Food deficit per countryIn Dollars(Export-Import)

Agricultural Exports and Imports for CWANA sub-regions, 2002-2004

$- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000

CWANA

million US$

Agricultural Imports Agricultural Exports

-8000

-7000

-6000

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

1961-1965

1966-1970

1971-1975

1976-1980

1981-1985

1986-1990

1991-1995

1996-2000

2001-2004

Date r ange

Ag

ricu

ltura

l tra

de

bal

ance

(Mill

ion

$)

In which conditions and In which conditions and at which cost?at which cost?

Reduction in Reduction in Water resourcesWater resources

Water resources: total internal renewable per capita (m3/inhab/yr)

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1958-1962

1963-1967

1968-1972

1973-1977

1978-1982

1983-1987

1988-1992

1993-1997

1998-2002

2003-2007

year

Inter

nal r

enew

able

wate

r res

ource

s (m3

/inha

b/yr)

TadjikistanKirghizistanTurkeyArmeniaAfghanistanIranIraqLebanonAzerbaijanMoroccoSudanSomaliaAlgeriaDjiboutiTunisiaSyriaOmanPakistanTurkménistanYemenMauritaniaJordanLibyaSaudia ArabiaQatarU.A.EEgyptBahrain

Internal renewable water resources per capita 1958-1962 (m3/inhabitants/year)

23632031

16581424 1240

1027 962 948 755 707 554 413 38261

48405233

5612

7640

3191

2510 2437

1389

240

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

Country

m3/

inha

bita

nts/

year

500 m3/inhabitants/year

Internal renewable water resources per capita 2003-2007 (m3/inhabitants/year)

423 416 413 375 325 271 191 130 118 104 94 81 48 24 5326

559856919

10431

8801

30972981

21181818

1326 1276952

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

Country

m3/in

habita

nts

/year

500 m3/inhabitants/year

Soil constaints and severity of human-induced Land degradation

in CWANA

(Terrastat, FAO database, 2006).

Cause:

Agriculture; Overgrazing; Deforestation; Over exploitation of vegetation

Major soil constraints in CWANA Total area (1000

km2) Sodicity (%) Shallowness (%) Erosion risk (%)

North Africa 5552 0,2 22,0 8,0 Nile Valley and Red Sea 4581 1,5 21,8 8,6 Arabian peninsula 2374 0,0 22,6 7,4 South and West Asia 4551 0,9 25,8 19,6 Central Asia and Caucasus 3997 28,4 16,3 5,0

Human induced land degradation in sub-regions of CWANA

50.642.4

24

8.2

57.9

12.8

16.2

34.3

4.3

11.410.5 17.5 20.2

31.6

15.8

25.414.2

32.4

39.6

13.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

North Africa Nile Valley andRed Sea

Arabian peninsula South and WestAsia

Central Asia andCaucasus

CWANA Subregion

Per

cen

t

(%) None (%) Light (%) Moderate (%) Severe

Agrobiodiversity and Agrobiodiversity and endangered speciesendangered species

Modified from http://www.iucnredlist.org/info/tablesModified from http://www.iucnredlist.org/info/tables

Numbers of threatened species by major groups of organisms in CWANA areas

North AfricaNile Valley and

Red Sea Arabian Peninsula Southwest AsiaCentral Asia and

Caucasus Total

Mammals 68 64 40 125 67 364

Birds 50 62 70 146 71 399

Reptiles 29 21 16 57 16 139

Amphibians 7 1 0 17 0 25

Fishes 82 74 63 136 25 380

Molluscs 0 3 0 0 0 3

Other Inverts 31 8 8 31 22 100

Plants 6 197 9 7 5 224

Total 273 430 206 519 206 1.634

Social Sustainability Social Sustainability ChallengesChallenges

Major changes in PoliciesMajor changes in PoliciesReduction of public investments and

support mechanisms Markets privatization, trade

liberalization: affect negatively farmers, limited access to global markets, dumping of cheap products

In some countries conflicts, political instability and poor governance have hampered agricultural development

Farm structureFarm structure

Two major trends for farmland:

Concentrated in the hands of a minority of farmers, as a result of recent processes of privatization and liberalization;

Fragmented, mostly because of inheritance and demographic growth, leading to reduced economic viability of family farms and unsound land management

AKST in CWANAAKST in CWANA

AKST in CWANAAKST in CWANA

Development of AKST : uneven and very different from one country to another.

NARs and international institutions are the main contributors

Private sector contribution is still limited, , oriented to crop-improvement research, oriented to crop-improvement research, mainly dealing with export crops in irrigated mainly dealing with export crops in irrigated areasareas

AKST in CWANAAKST in CWANA

In MENA region compared to other parts of the world:

6% of the public R (1,382 M 2000 int US$/ 23,000 ),

3.8% of the public+private

In Science and Technology 2 % :

(14893 M 2000 int US$)

Source Pardey et al (2006) Source USDA (2003)

as % of GDP

Investment in Agricultural RD as % of world investment

AKST and farmersAKST and farmers

• Most agricultural research in the CWANA region Most agricultural research in the CWANA region has been carried out in a top- down approach.has been carried out in a top- down approach.

• With few exceptions, farmers associations have With few exceptions, farmers associations have remained very weak because of insufficient remained very weak because of insufficient public policies. Strong farmer associations will public policies. Strong farmer associations will likely promote the participation of farmers in likely promote the participation of farmers in technology development, transfer and adoption.technology development, transfer and adoption.

Traditional KnowledgeTraditional Knowledge

Traditional knowledge on water harvesting, cultural practices and animal Traditional knowledge on water harvesting, cultural practices and animal breeding. breeding.

Initiatives developed to recognize, validate and maintain traditional Initiatives developed to recognize, validate and maintain traditional knowledge. knowledge.

Complete coverage is still lacking and there AKST could benefit from Complete coverage is still lacking and there AKST could benefit from projects that encourage its retention.projects that encourage its retention.

Priorities for agricultural Priorities for agricultural researchresearch

Priorities for agricultural researchPriorities for agricultural research

Improve income generation and food security, Improve income generation and food security, reducing malnutrition:reducing malnutrition:

Agricultural extension that respond to market and farmers’

needs,

Empowering farmers via participatory action research and

farmer to farmer exchange,

Technology options drawing on local knowledge,

Gender dimension of farm livelihoods,

Improved vertical integration from producer to consumer

Priorities for agricultural researchPriorities for agricultural research

Increase Increase land and water useland and water use efficiencyefficiency, the , the productivity productivity

of of livestocklivestock and preserve the and preserve the environmentenvironment

Drought tolerance is complex...,

Advances in genomics and sequencing have potential to pin-point genes involved in targeted processes

Better phenotyping tools/strategies needed to select most desirable genotypes

Need to consider more species and to diversify farming systems in order to reduce risk

-

Priorities for agricultural researchPriorities for agricultural research

Agricultural research should also concentrate on policies :

International trade issues affect severely farmers in CWANA Limited acces to goblal markets, dumping of cheap products)

Constraints to market access by small farmers

Identifying marketing niches for value added farm products and community based innovations

Policies for sustainable development Preserving natural resourcesPreserving natural resources

Policies to increase RD Policies to increase RD

AKST challengesAKST challenges

The CWANA region is facing problems that make it The CWANA region is facing problems that make it necessary to increase the effort toward agricultural necessary to increase the effort toward agricultural researchresearch

AKST should now address a more comprehensive picture of the situation in terms of the environment, sustainability, male and female farmers of all economic levels and the challenges posed by the changing climate. All avenues of innovation and information are needed to create new approaches, methods, and techniques in the agricultural sphere.

ReferencesReferences R. E. Evenson, et al.Assessing the Impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to 2000 Science 300, R. E. Evenson, et al.Assessing the Impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to 2000 Science 300,

758 (2003)758 (2003) FAO statistical database Pardey P.G., N. Beintema, S. Dehmer, S. Wood (2006) Agricultural research, a growing global

divide? Rajaram S.R., H.J.R. Braun -and M.R. van Ginkel (1996) CIMMYT’s approach to bredd for

drought tolerance Euphytica 92 (1-2): 147-153 USDA (2003) 21st century agriculture, a critical role for science and technology

World Bank An Online Atlas of the Millennium Development Goals