aki 01 aki overview

7/29/2019 AKI 01 AKI Overview

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Budi HARTONO

Analisis Kelayakan IndustriIndustrial Feasibility Analysis

OVERVIEW

Budi Hartono JTMI - UGM 1


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Outline

Bisnis

Fundamentals of FS

Purposes, main ideas

Recall: Time value of money

Multiple views of FS


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Bisnis


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Bisnis

Bisnis

Membuat uang melalui cara-cara yang

bertanggungjawab!

Atau

Membuat uang sebanyak-banyaknya, secepat-

cepatnya, Selanggeng-langgengnya!


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Prinsip Bisnis

Prinsip return (tidak sekedar profit)

Prinsip nilai waktu uang

Prinsip Resiko


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Investasi Industri

Antara lain mencakup: Pembangunan industri baru (barang atau jasa).

Pengembangan industri yang sudah ada.

Penggantian atau modifikasi peralatan industri.

Perlu analisis kelayakan juga:

Pengembangan produk baru

Modifikasi produk Diversifikasi produk


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Ciri Investasi Industri

Menyerap (dan mengikat dana) dalam waktu lama.

Ada masa tunggu sebelum dapat menikmati

keuntungan.

Tingkat resiko lebih tinggi.

Jika dibandingkan investasi harta lancar, misal penambahan

persediaan, piutang dagang, dll.

Salah keputusan perlu waktu dan biaya yang besar

untuk memperbaiki.


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Feasibility Study: Fundamentals

Analisis Kelayakan Industri =Feasibility Study =

Benefit-Cost Analysis


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Analisis Kelayakan Industri

Tujuan: Keputusan Manajemen Jalan terus, atau

STOP!


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Main Idea Benefits vs. Cost

example: the simplestform of AKI

http://lukisan-potret.blogspot.com/2010/06/lukisan-tokoh-kita.html


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FS = Benefit vs. Cost

Benefit Cost

Important!! Identifying all relevant variables: Benefit? Cost? Time duration Time value of money Projections / forecast risk & uncetainty


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What is benefit?


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What is cost?


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The top ten risks Regulatory and compliance risk

Global financial shocks

Aging consumers and workforce The inability to capitalize on emerging markets

Industry consolidation/transition

Energy shocks

Execution of strategic transactions Cost inflation

Radical greening

Consumer demand shifts

Feasibility Study: FundamentalsWhy consider risks?


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Recall: Time value of money


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Time value of money

Example

Time value of Moneywhich would you rather have?

Rp 1 M today or Rp 1M next year

Present Value


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Present Value

PV = FVn / (1+r)^n

where;

PV = Present Value

FVn= Future Value in n years

r = interest rate (compounded)


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Present Value (2)

Example:

Suppose you receive $1000 when you retire

within 20 years.

If the interest rate is 10% per year,

how much is the PV?

Answer?PV = $1000 / (1+0.1)^20

= $148.65


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Tips for Solving Time Value

Problems Draw a timeline

interest rate !!

time period

Inflows (+); outflows (-)

+

-0 1 2 year

$


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Multiple views of FS Example: MBS

l i l i f S


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MBSStakehold

ers

Holdingcompany

SGgovernment

SG citizens

GentingIsland

(competitor)


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As Casino Opens, Watch for Its Social Impact Begins |By Stanislaus Jude ChanTourism officials hope the casinos will help Singapore achieve its target of 17 million visitors a

year, generating over 21 billion US dollars by 2015.

But from the inception of the idea for the first casino in 2004, it has met with much resistance

among concerned citizens. Several groups, including the Muslim and Christian communities andsocial activists, expressed their disapproval to the casinos a move that is both peculiar and

noteworthy in apathetic Singapore society.

Despite public worries over the negative social impact of casino gambling as well as opening of

doors to undesirable activities including money laundering, prostitution, and organised crime,

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced in April 2005: "After weighing the matter carefully,

the Cabinet has collectively concluded that we had no choice but to proceed with the (Integrated

Resorts) IRs. As Prime Minister, I carry the ultimate responsibility for the decision."

As a social safeguard to combat excessive gambling, the gambling levy was put in place, together

with the setting up of the National Council on Problem Gambling and measures such as casino

exclusion, to stop problem gamblers and those in financial difficulties from entering the casinos

in Singapore.http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=50616

Jul 14, 2010 | Rise in gambling addiction |By Melissa Kok

More than one million visits by locals to casinos in Irs|By S Ramesh |

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1081392/1/.html


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Konsumen Laporan Studi Kelayakan

Investor yang mencetuskan ide investasi.

Calon penyedia dana.

Calon mitra usaha.

Calon donor.

Badan pemberi fasilitas non keuangan (misal

pemerintah).


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Tahapan studi kelayakan.

Pre-evaluation study Evaluasi hambatan kritis, misal pemasaran dan

teknologi.

Feasibility study ($)

Evaluasi secara Sederhana (banyak

penyederhanaan kondisi!); jika layak didetilkan.


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Recall: Ciri Investasi Industri

Menyerap (dan mengikat dana) dalam waktu lama. Ada masa tunggu sebelum dapat menikmati

keuntungan.

Tingkat resiko lebih tinggi.

Jika dibandingkan investasi harta lancar, misal penambahan

persediaan, piutang dagang, dll.

Salah keputusan perlu waktu dan biaya yang besar

untuk memperbaiki.

aki 01 aki overview

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