afwa wg-csab update spring 2012 dr. john zapotocny

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win

AFWA WG-CSAB UpdateSpring 2012

Dr. John Zapotocny


Overview

Current Operations Backup for COPC Partners DMSP Status Modeling

WRF UK Model Ensembles

HPC Configuration

Initiatives GSI-WRF Integration Aerosol Modeling AFW-WEBS

2

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 3

Backup for COPC Partners

NCEP - Storm Prediction Center/Aviation Weather Center Backup provided by 15 OWS (Scott AFB, IL) SPC real world backups in past year - 1 AWC real world backups in past year – 0 (4 stand-by instances due to

AWC power issues) Successful backup exercises – 6 (4 for AWC, 2 for SPC; severe

thunderstorm watch issued/verified during last SPC exercise) Space Weather Prediction Center (bi-directional backup)

Backup provided by 2 WS (Offutt AFB, NE) Real world backups in past year – 4 Successful backup exercises – 1

NESDIS – Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Backup provided by 2 WS (Offutt AFB, NE) Real world backups in past year – 4 Successful backup exercises – 2


REMOVED Slide 4 for Public Web Posting


Global NWPUnited Kingdom Met Office Model

UKMO Model at AFWA Initialization grids obtained

from Exeter Model runs 4x/day at 20 km

resolution to 240 hours Provides initial/lateral

boundary conditions for WRF regional runs

Standard products available via AFW-WEBS

Gridded data sharing limited to DoD & allies


Ensemble Modeling

Probability Products:QPF Thresholds, Precip Type,

Snowfall, Cloud Cover, Lightning, Hail Size, Dust Lofting Potential,

Severe TRW, Blizzard, Wind Gusts, Ceiling/Visibility, Wind

Chill, Heat Index, Haboob Threat

Global Ensemble 2x/day NUOPC multi-model inputs

(GFS, GEM, NOGAPS) forecasts to 240 hours

WRF-based Global & Regional Ensembles 2x/day

Global to 144 hours 12 km Nests to 48 hours 4 km Nests to 24 hours 10 members using varying

physics and lower boundary conditions

Training & Outreach Working with forecasters &

decision makers Formal training via CBT and

COMET


WRF EnsemblesGlobal & Regional

50 knot wind gust probability at 19Z58 knots observed at 1911Z

Black contour = where individual ensemble member forecasted 40 knots sustained

Northern Hemisphere

Southern Hemisphere

Tropical Stripe

Global 40 km WRF Ensembles

4 km SWA WRF Ensemble

12 km WRF Ensemble Regions


Computing Capacity: Unclassified: 68 TFlps Classified: 23 TFlps Total: 91 TFlps Power : Available: 1,225 Kw HPC Usage: 308 Kw

Prod9: UM/WRF/Ensembles 4800 Cores 51.0 TFlps

R&D 256 Cores 2.5 TFlps

SProd8: Spec Models/WRF576 Cores9.0 TFlops

ACN

CLASSIFIEDSProd9: WRF 1.67km1344 Cores14.0 TFlops

Prod8: Spec Models/Ensembles 1280 Cores 12.5 TFlps

Dev8: Dev/Test 192 Cores 2.0 TFlps

High PerformanceNetwork

UNCLASSIFIED

AFWA HPC SystemAs of Mar 2012


Region Model Res. Len.

Afghan WRF 1.67 30

South Korea WRF 1.67 30

Nevada WRF 1.67 30

Colombia WRF 1.67 30

Alaska WRF 1.67 30

Turkey WRF 1.67 30

CONUS WRF 4 72

Globe UM 20 240/384

GCW-E WRF 20/30 144

GCW-P (PAIS) WRF 20 72

Post-Processing WRF 45/15

Mx & Recovery

Cor

es

4800

2400

3600

1200

00Z 12Z06Z 18Z 00Z

28 OWS 02-06Z 120hr hazards 28 OWS 14-18Z 120hr hazards

17 OWS 04-10Z AK 120hr Sfc / 48hr Hazards 17 OWS 15-22Z Korea JOAF 120hr All-charts

15th/25th/26th OWS 0430-09Z—All 48hr prod 17 OWS 17-00Z Pacific AOR All 48hr Production

AFSOUTH 06-10Z All 120hr production 21 OWS 18-21Z 48hr hazards

21 OWS 06-09Z 120hr sfc/cloud

OWS Production Cycle as of Oct 2010

3DWF: 24 Cores/hr

WRF-V (Volcano): 96 Cores/hr

Re-WRF: 144 Cores/hr

Global ensemble: 10 members GCW-P (PAIS): 20km, 57 levels

N.H./S.H. (dashed) Tropical (solid)

HPC – PROD 9Projected Utilization Summer ‘12

Ensem

bleC

ON

US

GC

W-E

Tropics

GC

W-E

N.H

./S

.H.

GC

W-P

GC

W-P

Ensem

bleC

ON

US

GC

W-E

Tropics

GC

W-E

N.H

./S

.H.

GC

W-P

GC

W-P


Cor

es

4800

2400

3600

1200

00Z 12Z06Z 18Z 00Z

1300

• Ensemble Characteristics• “Design-to-fit• 10 members• 4 km domain resolution (Area: 400 x 400)• 48 h forecast length

Ens

Region Model Res. Len.

Afghan WRF 1.67 30

South Korea WRF 1.67 30

Nevada WRF 1.67 30

Colombia WRF 1.67 30

Alaska WRF 1.67 30

Turkey WRF 1.67 30

Mx & Recovery

HPC – SPROD 9Projected Utilization Summer 2012

Ens

EnsEns

EnsEns

EnsEns


Cor

es

4800

2400

3600

1200

00Z 12Z06Z 18Z 00Z

1300

• Ensembles consist of 10 members• Ensemble solution is “design-to-fit”• All domains at 4 km

Region Model Area Res. Len.

SWA MEPS (GFS) 1000x450 4 72

East Asia MEPS (GFS) 600x450 4 72

Somalia MEPS (GFS) 400x500 4 72

Tropical MEPS (GFS) 400x400 4 54

SpecGEPS Misc. 1 deg 240

Mx & Recovery

HPC – PROD 8Projected Utilization Summer ‘12

• PROD 5/7 support contract ends 1 Mar 2012


Initiatives


GSI-WRF Integration

Establish working GSI prototype on AFWA HPCCurrently running on Dev 8

Producing a 48-hr forecast at 12Z cycle

6-hr init from 6Z cycle

Full DA for 6Z and 12Z run

GSI based NH WRF with initial satellite data assimilationInitially planned: COSMIC and AMSU-A -- completedAdditional: HIRS3 and HIRS4 – completed Imminent: WINDSAT Actively working: AIRS, IASI, and ASCAT


Working PrototypeWRFVAR/GSI Comparison

Configure Parallel RunsConduct Parallel Runs

Statistical Analysis

DTC Community CapabilityCost Analysis

Community Funding Decision

Phase 2 Decision

GSI Operational TransitionOptimize AFWA Pre-Processing

Configure Code for ops efficiency

GSI SustainmentParticipate in GSI Review Committee

Establish New Satellite Data Flows

Jan

12 Mar

12

May

12

Jul 1

2

Sep 12

Nov

12

Jan

13 Mar

13

May

13

Jul 1

3

Sep 13

GSI Integration Schedule

Dec 11 – Mar 12

Apr 12 – 15 May 12

Apr 12 – Fall 2012

15 May 12 – 1 Aug 12

Aug 12 – Sep 12

LEGENDMajor ActivityPlanned/In progressComplete

Sep 12 – Jan 13

Sep 12 – Jan 13

Sep 12

Sep 12 – Jan 13

Mar 12 – May 12

Mar 12 – May 12

Sep 12

Phase 1

Phase 2

IOC


DTA (GFS & WRF based) GFS DTA ½ degree resolution,

4 cycles/day out to 72 hours, 2 cycles/day out to 180 hours

WRF DTA 15 km resolution, 4 cycles/day out to 48 hours

Dust concentration and Dust visibility products

Both use Ginoux source regions

Aerosol ModelingDust Transport Application & WRF-Chem

WRF-Chem AFWA is developing WRF-Chem based aerosol forecasts (including dust) with transition

to Ops planned in CY2013 WRF-chem simulates the emission, turbulent mixing, transport, transformation, and fate

of trace gases and aerosols. The WRF Atmospheric Chemistry Working Group is guiding the development of WRF-chem.


AFW-WEBS UpdateRecent Improvements

Google Earth/Maps Selective 5m resolution over Google Premium

15m dataset Global 90m resolution terrain w/ HRTE in AFG Add’l base maps—Imagery/Map/Chart

Will continue to add base map options North America roads now available

Global plannedFirst instance of OWS FITL products (USAFE)

Other regions planned for global product Data format conflicts being worked

Global Ensemble (GEPS)WRF 1.67km/3DWF windowsInitial polar-orbiter imagery for SWA

MODIS/DMSP/NOAA/METOP

https://weather.af.mil


AFW-WEBSUp Next

Transition from JAAWIN Port over remaining capabilities

Robust improved user interface Increase METSAT resolution

Degraded due to database capacity Capacity now tripled

Global polar-orbiter imagery WxSnapshot

Interactive site information Skew-T, meteogram, 5-day,

Stoplight Space weather Hemispheric WRF Mesoscale ensembles Single-site radar application Robust low-bandwidth capability


Questions?

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afwa wg-csab update spring 2012 dr. john zapotocny

Documents

exercise backup

backup support

afwa warning

win33one realworld backup

public web postingaim

swpc warning

realworld backups

past year