approved for public release – distribution unlimited afwa update spring 2011 john zapotocny 13...

Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimited

AFWA UpdateSpring 2011

John Zapotocny13 April 2011

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win

Overview

Mission and Organizational Structure

1st Weather Group NCEP SPC & AWC Backup Events (15 OWS)

2nd Weather Group NESDIS VAAC Backup Events (2 WS) Volcanic Ash Forecasting Improvements (16 WS) WRF Status & Plans (16 WS)

HQ AFWA – Ops Status & Near Term Initiatives Ops Center Consolidation (A3) UKMO Unified Model Integration (A5/8) Joint Urgent Operation Need (JUON) Effort (A5/8) Air Force Weather Web Services (AFW-WEBS) Progress Report (A5/8)

2

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 3

AFWA Mission

Maximizing America’s Power through the

Exploitation of Timely, Accurate, and Relevant Weather Information;Anytime, Everywhere

F-22

Atlas V EELV Launch

C-17

Joint USAF/USA Patrol near Balad AB


AFWA Structure

22 GSUs

1st Weather GroupOffutt AFB


FOA CommanderOffutt AFB, NE

FOA CommanderOffutt AFB, NE

26 OWS Barksdale AFB, LA


15 OWSScott AFB, IL

15 OWSScott AFB, IL

2 SYOSOffutt AFB2 SYOS

Offutt AFB

2nd Weather GroupOffutt AFB


2 WSOffutt AFB

2 WSOffutt AFB

16 WSOffutt AFB

16 WSOffutt AFB

2 CWSSHurlburt Fld, FL


14 WSAsheville, NC

14 WSAsheville, NC25 OWS

D-M AFB, AZ25 OWS

D-M AFB, AZ

A3Offutt AFB

A3Offutt AFB

A 5/8Offutt AFB

A 5/8Offutt AFB

A 6Offutt AFB

A 6Offutt AFB

CC Staff: DP, DS, FM Offutt AFB

CC Staff: DP, DS, FM Offutt AFB


1 WXG





15 OWSScott AFB, IL

15 OWSScott AFB, IL

25 OWSD-M AFB, AZ

25 OWSD-M AFB, AZ

Three Operational Weather Squadrons (OWSs)

Characterize the environment in USNORTHCOM AOR

15 OWS (Scott AFB) / 25 OWS (D-M AFB) / 26 OWS (Barksdale AFB)

Ops Mission – provide 24/7 timely, accurate and relevant weather information to AF, Army, Guard & Reserve forces

Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts for 97 airfields

Resource Protection for 348 Total Force locations

Graphical aviation forecasts for North America

Aircrew mission-execution weather briefings

Training Mission – provide initial and up-grade training for 60% of weather career field accessions (enlisted and officer)

Mission ExecutionCharacterization / Threat Assessment

Developing Airmen

F-16s flying an Operation Noble Eagle combat air patrol over the East Coast.


Operational Backup15 OWS

NCEP SPC/AWC backup mission has fully transitioned to 1 WXG 15 OWS at Scott AFB, IL

Events since May 2010 Storm Prediction Center – 3 real-world backups Aviation Weather Center – 3 real-world backups 13 successful rehearsals

System infrastructure for SPC/AWC staff relocation in case of a catastrophic outage is retained at Offutt AFB


2 WXG

2 SYOS2 SYOS



2 WS2 WS

16 WS16 WS



14 WSAsheville, NC

14 WSAsheville, NC

Global Production Center – Collection, Analysis, Forecasting, Distribution

DoD’s only ‘real-time’ 24/7 weather production for intelligence ops

DoD's only ‘real-time’ 24/7 space environment analysis/forecast capability for JSpOC, NORAD, Space Operators, HF, and GPS users

DoD’s lead agency for decision-enabling applied climatology and weather modeling & simulation

DoD’s only provider for global volcanic ash advisories

Collect/process/disseminate meteorological and space weather info

Critical reachback node for war fighters worldwide

Develop and exploit state-of-the-art weather forecasting models and web services to enhance joint military and intelligence operations

Provide scientific services to improve forecasting for the war fighter

Fielded wx system SMEs; conduct test/eval, wx systems deployment training, and deployed maintenance on tactical wx systems

Dust Transport Algorithm Surface Visibility

Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements

World Wide Merged Cloud Analysis

FOB Warhorse Balad, Iraq

SWA Dust VisibilityRestriction Climatology Forward Deployed Global Hawk Operations

Tactical Air Control Party In the Fight


Operational Backup2 WS

NESDIS – Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Real-world or training backup is required at least quarterly AOR includes CONUS, Northern South America, Caribbean,

Pacific Ocean to include Hawaii and Guam, and western Atlantic (blue area)

5 short-term real-world backups (lasting a few hours) Communications Outage (1) Power Outage (2) Fire Drill (1) Manning Issue (1)

3 successful scheduled rehearsals

8


Volcanic Ash Initiatives16 WS

HYSPLIT Community model developed by Air Resources Lab (ARL/NOAA)

Offline model driven by NWP winds to provide volcanicash dispersion and concentration forecasts

Transitions to operations by Summer 2011

WRF-Chem for Volcanic Ash NOAA/ESRL, Univ. of Alaska-Fairbanks, AFWA

WRF with in-line GOCART chemistry module – 3D trajectories/particle heights, mass concentration, deposition, and ash fall accumulation

Data assimilation efforts are ongoing

Ensemble mode under investigation to provide uncertainty information

WRF-Chem for VA

HYSPLIT


Dust Modeling Initiatives16 WS

Improved Dust Source Regions from DesertResearch Institute (DSR) Accounts for pedologic, hydrologic, chemical,

biological, & geomorphic processes along with topography

To include Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, Northern CENTCOM; IOC - Nov 11

DTA-WRF 15/45-km and DTA-GFS(SWA, East Asia, Northern Africa)

Dust concentration and visibility products (4x daily)

WRF-Chem Dust Dust concentration and visibility products using an

inline chemistry model and state-of-the-art physics (diagnostic and stochastic forecast products)

Increased horizontal resolution (4-km)

DA-WRF 45-km to72 hrs (Vis)

30-km to 144 hrs (Stochastic DLP-Dust Lofting Potential); Africa/SWA


Cloud Forecasting Initiatives 16 WS

AFWA Advect Cloud Model (ADVCLD) Global short range cloud cover prediction model Uses GFS winds (U, V, and W) to “advect” clouds

forward in time Improved version - Jun 11

AFWA Diagnostic Cloud Forecast Model (DCF) Regional & Global cloud cover prediction model Uses statistical correlations to compute forecasts

Cloud Optical Properties (COP) Algorithms improve cloud top

height assignment and identify transmissive cirrus clouds (ice)

Used in cloud analysis model- IOC 4CY11

DCF 15-km Total Cloud Cover

Satellite Image Current Cloud Mask COP Cloud Mask


WRF at AFWA16 WS

WRF Operational Configuration

Yonsei Univ PBL Physics LIS - LoBC from NOAH LSM WRFDA – Transitioning to GSI 72hrs, 48 or 144hrs, & 30hrs

57 Vertical Levels 10 mb model top Kain-Fritsch Convection 45km, 15km, & 5km domains

Near-Term Plans Initialize WRF with UK Unified Model run at AFWA Implement hi-res (5/1.67km) domains in conjunction with Joint

Unified Operational Need Statement (JUONS) Implement regional ensembles—N & S Hemisphere w/Tropical

Stripe circa 20km; 2-6 relocatable 4km domains Control member may supplant 15km deterministic domains Adjust design to account for JUONS requirements


HQ AFWA & Near Term

Initiatives of Interest

13


A3 Operations, Training and Evaluations

AFW Heads Up Display

Intellipedia

A3 Director Offutt AFB

A3 Director Offutt AFB

A3OCurrent

Operations

A3OCurrent

Operations

A3TTraining

A3TTraining

A3VStandardization and

Evaluations

A3VStandardization and

Evaluations

OL-HFt. Huachuca

OL-HFt. Huachuca

Knowledge Centerhttps://afwkc.csd.disa.mil

AFWA Ops Center Similar Concept to DoD Air/Space

Operations Center

Lead AFWA Operations Center 24x7x365

Operate the AFW HUD: Maintain awareness of 800+ AFWWS components and global weather operations

Standards/Evaluations (SEPWO), Tactics, Metrics

Develop non-formal weather training (CBTs) and COMET Liaison

Provides AFWA Notices to the Field: interface for AFW policy, AFWA production environment, lead command , A-staff, and the user community

DMSP coordinator and user representative

F-16 Departs Balad AB on CAS Mission

DMSP F-18, launched 18 Oct 2009


AFWA Ops CenterOperations Focal Point - 24x7x365

Requirements – AFWA/CC org box is AFWA Front Door [email protected]

Entry point for operational support needs & new requirements

AFWA Ops Center extends AFWA/CC org box monitor to 24x7x365

Problem Reports/Ops Coord – AFWA Ops Center Single Telephone entry point

DSN 271-2586

Commercial (402) 294-2586

Toll Free (800) 250-1750

NIPR [email protected]

SIPR [email protected]

COPC Focal Point for All Operational Issues

mailto:[email protected]




Display status of AFWA internal production systemsand external infrastructure

Displays status of AF Weather fielded systemsin KML format with wide choice of overlays

Internal/External Production Monitoring

Fielded Systems Monitoring

AFWA Ops CenterOperations Focal Point 24x7x365


A5/A8Strategic Plans, Requirements and Programs

WxPod

AFW WEBS

A5/8 Director Offutt AFB

A5/8 Director Offutt AFB

A5CCapabilities

A5CCapabilities

A5ROperational Capability

Requirements

A5ROperational Capability

Requirements

A8FLead Command

Management

A8FLead Command

Management

OL-KNorman, OK

OL-KNorman, OK

A8PPrograms

A8PPrograms

A8XStrategic Plans

A8XStrategic Plans

Performs capabilities-based requirements development for AFWWS

Plans, Programs & Fields AF Weather Weapon System

Directs Sustainment of Fielded Programs Worldwide

Coordinates with DoD and National Weather Agencies

https://weather.af.milTMQ-53

HH-60G Pave Hawk helicopter rescue mission from Balad ABPDR

FMQ-22

17


Unified Model at AFWA

UM Integration into Operations Implement initial capability at 25km global resolution

Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions for regional WRF domains

Transitioning many regional worldwide domains (45/15/5km resolution) to fewer larger domains (15/5km resolution) to 144hrs

Serve data to warfighters via AFW Web Enterprise Services

Upgrade resolution to ~17km in support of Joint Unified Operational Needs Statement

Used to drive very hi-res regional WRF domains (5/1.67km)

Expand to 384hr forecast length for long-term ops planning

Investigating prospects of enhancing National Unified Ensemble with UM members – NUOPC interest item


JUONPersistent Surveillance System

High-res models to support PSS aerostats Collaborating w/ UKMO, NCAR, ARL

UM: 17km global

WRF: 5km SWA and 1.67km Iraq/Afghanistan domains

3DWF: 50m over select locations

New HPC to run models 51 Tflops - Unclass, 14 Tflops - Secret

Collecting/encoding automated aerostat observations for resource protection, WRF initialization Surface data in METAR format

Upper air data in AMDAR format

USJFCOM Photo of PGSS by Air Force Staff Sgt. Vanessa Valentine

Photo downloaded from Lockheed Martin PTDS website

http://www.lockheedmartin.com/data/assets/ms2/images/PTDS-full.jpg


AFW-WEBS Update

20

AFW Enterprise Portal

IOC achieved Unclass/Secret (SCI Apr 2011)

Optimizing MetWatch tools

Add’l Satellite Enhancements

Drawing Tools

A/N Obs/TAFs Web Feature Service request

Integrated Styles into services

Further customization of data

Save Preferences capability


AFW-WEBSUp Next

Integrate Google Earth Plug-in Ingest 100% of Level III NEXRAD data Further improve meteograms/Skew-T

Develop in “Flex”—interactive Continue transition off JAAWIN Expand product suite

Analysis products Specialized Models

Develop add’l user features User-defined thresholds Sharing profiles Value-added Interactive Web

Applications & Services Integrate OWS holdings


Questions?

approved for public release – distribution unlimited afwa update spring 2011 john zapotocny 13...

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