Air Force Weather AgencyFly - Fight - Win

AFWA Site Update

WG-CSABApril 2009

John Zapotocny

Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimited

Fly - Fight - Win

Overview

Operational Backup

Operational METSAT Processing

WRF Operational Transition

DATMS-U Issues and Actions

Developmental Initiatives Migration to Ensemble Modeling Cloud, Land Surface and Dust Model Improvements Revolutionizing AFW Web Pages and Services

Fly - Fight - Win

Operational BackupNCEP (AWC, SPC, SWPC)

NESDIS VAAC

Fly - Fight - Win

Operational Backup

NCEP - Storm Prediction Center/Aviation Weather Center Effective 1 May 09, the backup role will transition from 2 WXG (2

WS at Offutt AFB) to the 1 WXG (15 OWS at Scott AFB) to better align with unit capabilities

Space Weather Prediction Center (bi-directional backup) No real-world backups accomplished over the last 12 months 4 scheduled backups accomplished over the last 12 months

NESDIS – Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) 5 short-term real world backups over the last 12 months 2 scheduled backups over the last 12 months

Fly - Fight - Win

Operational METSATProcessing

Fly - Fight - Win

DMSP Operational Status (As of March 09)

FOUO/UCI

Removed in Public Release Version

Fly - Fight - Win

DMSP Update

Flight 17 (F17) Primary operational spacecraft in early morning orbit Second OLS decontamination Aug 08; restored thermal detector

sensitivity to near early-orbit capability; T-Channel Gain step at 14/31 Mar 09, OLS Visible detector flight software modified to address day-

night transition in observed scene; improved imagery quality OLS Low-light detector commanded to “Center-Lock” mode to provide

consistency across scan; degraded (left to right imbalance of brightness), loss of surface resolution at edges of scan

Attitude control behavior Gyro # 3 off Jun 2007 Gyro # 1 off Jul 08 MIMU – Primary for attitude control; nominal mapping accuracy

Installed on Flight 17 & 18 to ensure operational performance SGYRO commanding software uploaded as MIMU backup

Fly - Fight - Win

DMSP Update

F16 Primary operational spacecraft in mid-morning orbit Attitude control maintained by S-Gyro software and gyro #3

Gyro-3 performance remains stable Infrequent Gyro Bias shifts temporarily move spacecraft out

of basic pointing mode – data geolocation errors along track and at edge of scan but still operationally useful

F18 Replacement for F16 in mid-morning orbit

SSMI/S will fly Engineering Model main reflector; more accurate collections anticipated

Nov 08 Launch slipped, AF/A3O-W request, to reduce risk of operational gaps during the transition to NPOESS

Final launch date in question at this time, may be 20 Oct 09 Will launch on Atlas V booster; LEO support on track

8

Fly - Fight - Win

DMSP Update

Secondary flights F15 provides additional hi-res imagery

Gyro issues similar to F16 RADCAL Beacon operation rendering SSM/I unusable for

AFWA automated NWP applications (22V channel)

F13 reached 14-year operational milestone on 24 March 09 Continues providing global imagery and microwave

(SSM/I) data on two remaining recorders Recorder # 2 slightly degraded (magnetic tape wear)

F14 Tactical support only; Hi-res Direct Readout capability Last recorder failed 23 Aug 08

F12 Decommissioned Oct 08; attitude control issue

Fly - Fight - Win

METSAT Ingest Refresh Transitioned DMSP, POES, GOES satellites, Sept 08 Added capability to convert MetOp Level-1b to AFWA “SIMPLE” format

METEOSAT MET-9 into primary operational service 11 Apr 07; Met-8 is backup EUMETSAT continues imaging of IO region by MET-7

AFWA/FNMOC receive EUMETSAT “archive files” from NESDIS vs. historical Met-7 rebroadcast from DOMSAT

MTSAT-1R AFWA transitioned to HRIT data format, 26 Sep 07

Providing routine feed to FNMOC operations AFWA/Navy to cost-share recurring DOMSAT uplink expenses

MetOp-A ‘Ingest’ declared operational Mar 09; converts Level-1b to ‘SIMPLE’ CDFS II data base modification completed Apr 09 Will be added to WWMCA May 09

METSAT Processing

Fly - Fight - Win

METSAT Processing

GOES Seeking solution for full time GVAR receipt of GOES-10 (South) No GOES-12 SXI due to X-ray Sensor (XRS) anomaly 12 Apr 07

AFWA looks forward to GOES-13 SXI data to replace lost GOES-12 solar imagery

Aqua/Terra (MODIS) Turn on of NSOF MODIS data via NESDIS gateway/DATMS-U 8 Apr 09;

SH Aqua added to NH from NASA SGI production Added hemisphere/week to monitor and minimize comm impact

Anticipate enhanced support for Aerosol analysis, developmental 6km global cloud analysis

11

Fly - Fight - Win

WRF Operational Transition

Fly - Fight - Win

WRF Transition Plan

Phase I: Replace existing MM5 windows with WRF One-for-one replacement of CONUS and OCONUS MM5

windows (including current 45 km domains) with WRF starting with SW Asia domain (anticipated completion late 2009)

Retain “TC Tracker” over Pacific/Indian Oceans Continue running MM5 in background until capability available in

WRF (Version 3.1 delivered; Ops implementation early Jun 09) Run 45km MM5 as input to the Dust Transport Application

(DTA) for Africa, SW Asia, and Asia until transition to WRF model (Late 09)

Transition actions on hold due to internal contract issue

Phase II: Expand all 15/5km WRF domains

Fly - Fight - Win

15km

5km Nest

Window ConfigurationAs of Apr 09

Removed in Public Release Version

Fly - Fight - Win

15km

5km Nest

Maritime WindowsAs of Apr 09

Removed in Public Release Version

Fly - Fight - Win

Transition Timelines

Complete Transition SW Asia 45/15km and Iraq/Afghanistan 5km windows

Complete Transition Russia/Asia 45km windows; transition Korea/Japan and India 15km windows; transition Korea 5km window

Complete Transition Europe/North Atlantic/Atlantic 45km & Europe 15km windows

DD + 4wks Transition Africa and South America

DD + 8wks Transition Australia, Antarctica, and South Africa

DD + 12wks

Transition Indian Ocean, East Pacific, and West

DD + 16wks

Transition Alaska and North America

2010 Expand geographic coverage of 15km/5km domains

Fly - Fight - Win

DatePlanned Outage

(Y/N)Outage > 2 hrs

(Y/N)DATMS-U (DISA ATM) Issue Discussion

Outage Duration

20-Apr-06 N YATM outage between AFWA and Silver Springs (NWS). DISA contacted. Pt2Pt circuit was having major errors & dropping data. Fix action listed as CBI.

20.5

2-May-06 N YAshville ATM bouncing up and down. DISA contacted. No fix action. Chuck Abel said no impacts since the Ashville ATM is no longer in use, using NIPRNet.

4

2-May-06 N YSilver Springs ATM bouncing up and down. DISA cotacted. Verizon replaced a bad connection on the end of the cable.

4.5

1-Jun-06 N Y

MET 5 data flow is slow (Silver Springs ATM line). Contacted DISA. DISA bounced the circuit and flow tripled. Problem reoccurred. Flow from NWS to AFWA and FNMOC effected. DISA discovered AFWA and FNMOC were being routed through the same data pipe (incorrect configuration). AFWA and FNMOC were routed to the correct data pipes.

30

6-Jun-06 N Y

This was not a DISA issue, but rather a DNS issue at NWS (Silver Springs). However, part of the troubleshooting problem was DISA insisted AFWA was using NIPRNet, rather than an ATM. It took a while to convince them AFWA uses ATM to connect with NWS.

9

21-Jul-06 N Y

ATM to Monterey (FNMOC) down. DISA, MSC and FNMOC tech support contacted. No DMSP, NOGAPS or COAMPS. DISA couldn't find any problems. Switched to NIPRNet to restore data flow. At DISA's request, switched back to ATM and data was flowing. No clear fix action.

70

9-Aug-06 N YATM to Silver Springs had issues. DISA and NWS contacted. Line is bouncing up and down, so some data is getting through. DISA cleared the line and service was restored.

3

29-Nov-06 N Y

Unable to pass A/N with NWS. Contacted DISA and they checked the line, and declared it good, but transmissions were ending at a NWS IP. MSC re-engaged DISA check the routing at Offutt (AP1000). DISA discovered a required network route was missing. Route replaced and data flowed.

18.5

7-Feb-07 N YATM to Silver Springs was down. Contacted DISA. Fixed broken connection in the line.

6

13-May-07 N YATM to Silver Springs and FNMOC down. Contacted DISA. AT&T had to rebuild the cross-connects on the circuit path.

5.5

8-Nov-07 N YATM to Silver Springs was down. NWS contacted DISA. Line problem between Silver Springs and the Pentagon resolved by Verizion.

3.5

23-Jan-08 N YNWS reports sproadically receiving cloud data. Contacted DISA after much troubleshooting at both ends. DISA resolved the issue, but no fix given.

23.5

27-Sep-08 N YATM to Silver Springs and FNMOC down. Contacted DISA. Verizon had to replace a switch at Offutt. NOAA Port was used to receive data and Model data from NWS was manually pulled.

18.5

13-Feb-09 N Y

Intermittent data flow AFWA to/from Silver Springs. Bad switch at Scott AFB, so DISA moved circuit to an alt route. Data flowing again, but then problems started again. DISA move the circuit back to the primary circuit and normal data flow resumed.

28

200698.1%

availability

200799.65%

availability

200899.5%

availability

2009

DATMS-U Issues & Actions

Fly - Fight - Win

DATMS-U Issues & Actions

18

AFWA/A6 directed DISA to move the AFWA to NWS path from a Permanent Virtual Circuit (PVC) to Soft Permanent Virtual Circuit (S-PVC). The S-PVC dynamically re-routes around any failed node. Completed mid-March.

AFWA/2SYOS working manual backup procedures with NWSTG to send Alphanumeric data via NIPRNet/Internet in the event of an extended DISA outage. Estimated completion date to include testing 30 April

COPC JAG/CCM working with DISA to establish a DISA to NOAA peer-to-peer network gateway

Estimate 6 months from requirements/funding approval

Fly - Fight - Win

Developmental Initiatives

Fly - Fight - Win 20

79/58 members, 1 1, 7 day, 2 cycle/day

NCEP Medium Range Ensemble 21 GFS runs (T126, 4 cycles/day)

FNMOC Medium Range Ensemble 16 NOGAPS runs (T119, 2 cycle/day)

Canadian Medium Range Ensemble 21 GEM runs (90km, 2 cycle/day)

· Recently added Canadian GEM ensemble - retrieve via NOMADS server· JEFS final project report submitted to HPCMO· AMC and NUOPC requirements make it likely that some form of JGE will

transition into operations in the near future (~2010)

DoD Ensemble Modeling Pathfinder – JEFSCompleted Dec 2008

Joint Global Ensemble (JGE)

Fly - Fight - Win 21

Current Mesoscale DomainsC

ON

US

• 10 members, 30/10/3.33km, 2 cycle/day

• Hourly output on 10/3.33km to 48/30 hrs

• GEFS used for IC’s & LBC’s

• Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter I.C.s

• Varied model physics configurations

• Perturbed surface boundary conditions

Removed in Public Release Version

Fly - Fight - Win 22

Cloud, Land Surface and DustModeling Enhancements

Fly - Fight - Win

Implemented Global Diagnostic Cloud Forecast Model, Dec 2008

Statistical cloud model using NCEP GFS and AFWA Cloud Analysis

Running test version of high resolution Aerospace Nephanalysis (ANEPH) to feed 5km resolution cloud forecast model

Expected to be in production Spring/Summer 2009

Started development of AFWA Couple Assimilation and Prediction System (ACAPS)

NCAR on contract for 4DVAR development

AER, Inc. developing/delivering upgrades to 1DVAR-based cloud properties capability; collaborating with NCAR to assimilate into 4DVAR

Cloud Modeling

Fly - Fight - Win 2424

Regional cloud cover model developed by AFRL (Don Norquist)

Pairs AFWA WRF output with CDFS-II WWMCA analysis

Statistically “chooses” which clouds best correlate with WRF “predictors”

45/15/5 km WRF grids & global ½ degree GFS grid

3-hr time step 30 to 80 hr forecast (depends on

grid)

DCF products: Total fractional cloud coverage

layer coverage (5-layers)

layer top height & thickness

layer type

Cloud ModelingRegional Cloud Forecasts

Fly - Fight - Win

Partnered with NASA and Army to develop Land Information System LIS Initial Operational Configuration implemented 24 Feb 09

Global ¼ degree lat/lon Final Operational Configuration planned for Feb, 2010

Support all AFWA WRF-domains NCAR, NASA, AFWA joint project to couple LIS-WRF

Initial capability delivered March, 2009 does not yet support parallel computing

Final development, testing, and full scientific evaluation to be completed during late FY09, early FY2010, delivered March 2010

AFWA supporting NASA to couple LIS & CRTM (JCSDA project) Final development to be completed in FY09/10, to be delivered April, 2010

Land Surface Modeling

Fly - Fight - Win 26

LIS initialized runs were able to reduce WRF warm bias

LIS affected 0-48 hour fcst variables of surface weather, boundary layer, cloud, and precipitation

LIS soil and snow fields capture fine scale surface features, reflecting important role in high resolution NWP

Demonstrate and evaluate using LIS to initialize WRF (ARW) SE Asia domain

4 seasonal test case periods

STUDY RESULTS:

Land Surface ModelingLIS Coupling with WRF

Fly - Fight - Win

Running MM5-based Dust Transport Application (DTA) for Ops

Running developmental versions of: GFS based DTA (1/2 degree) WRF based DTA (45 and 15km domains)

Accessing Navy COAMPS model dust data and displaying products on developmental web page

Working to obtain UKMO dust model data

Developed ensemble based Dust Lofting Probability tool Combines surface wind speed and stability data from ensemble

system along with dust source region database to assess capability of environmental conditions to loft dust into the atmosphere

Well-received by forecasters; Most useful when used with other tools

Dust Modeling

Fly - Fight - Win 28

DTA Products

Visibility

Fly - Fight - Win

DTA Developmental Products Google Earth Integration

29

Dust Concentration

Fly - Fight - Win 30

6 hr fcst

138 hr fcst

DTA Developmental Products JGE Ensemble Based

Fly - Fight - Win 31

Revolutionizing AFW WebPages and Services

Fly - Fight - Win 32

Revolutionizing AFW Web Pages & Services

Take enterprise view for AFW web portal Bring AFWA (2WS and 14WS)

web holdings together with OWSs including unit pages into single “weather.af.mil”

Same integrated page concept for unclassified and classified networks

How Leverage SOA & OGC services

for all AFW visualized product Utilize Horace V as OGC

services engine Enterprise web built from OGC

services “mash-up”

Fly - Fight - Win 33

“weather.af.mil” DesignSupports Many Viewing Engines

All weather.af.mil content can be viewed thru various GIS panes - right-sized for mission/user

High-bandwidth, 3-D viewer – Google Earth

Medium/normal-bandwidth, 2-D viewer – Google Map/OpenLayers

Low-bandwidth – Table driven

PDA access

Fly - Fight - Win 34

“weather.af.mil” DesignFlexibility – Efficiency

Pan and zoom in 2-D GIS pane

Multiple services viewed as stacked layers

Web page menus built dynamically from services

Multiple styles for same product

Easily supports wide-range of GRIB data

Supports rapid product development and web page integration

Fly - Fight - Win

Automatically updating current observations

Hourly / Special Observations

& Winds

Color coded based on visibility, ceiling, & temperature

Legend Overlay

Color coded wind barbs based on wind speed

Links to Raw Trends

“weather.af.mil” ExampleCombining JMBL & KML

Fly - Fight - Win

KML Display InitiativeGoogle Earth – Google Maps

Climatological Wind Rose

- Pan/tilt to see terrain impacts

- Overlaid on airfield

Conditional Cloud Climatology

Removed in Public Release Version

Fly - Fight - Win 37

What Next

Rapid OGC services development

Accomplished with team of indigenous assets – Not a contract action

Roll-out developmental/prototype capabilities weekly

Ambitiously targeting IOC end CY2009 – Network accreditation is long-pole in tent

Not This This