adrian gault, chief economist - university of...
TRANSCRIPT
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The long-term future for heat
Adrian Gault, Chief Economist
“What does a heat transformation mean for UK heat sector businesses?”
18 January 2017
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UK ambition on climate change is designed to “embody” the Trilemma.
Legal duty to incorporate: fuel
poverty, competitiveness,
energy policy, fiscal
circumstances + others
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Meeting targets requires emission reductions across all sectors, though in our scenarios, over the period to 2035, buildings and industry decarbonise more slowly than most others
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It will take time to reduce emissions from buildings – we need to start now.
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But lately, action to reduce emissions in homes has stalled…
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…as has action to improve the energy efficiency of commercial buildings.
Information and reporting has little impact:
– Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs)
– Display energy certificates (public buildings)
– energy audits (Energy Savings Opportunity Scheme for large business)
Need to focus on:
– Actual not modelled performance
– Board-level reporting, “salience”
– Identification of low cost options
– Comparisons with peers
Funder: “I would finance but there
is no demand from occupiers”
Developer: “The funder won’t
finance, the tenants are not asking
for improvements”
Contractor: “I could build it but
developers don’t ask.”
Tenant: “There are no energy
efficient buildings and energy is
not a material cost.”
“Circle of blame”, Carbon Trust 2009
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The options are well known. They include effective energy efficiency, heat pumps…
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…heat networks and possibly low-carbon hydrogen for heating.
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Where do we need to be in 30-40 years?
Heating may shift from one
dominant technology to a range
of solutions depending on local
demand.
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Getting there requires effective roll-out of each option now – and associated investment in training, certification and supply chains.
Full infographic: see https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Infographic-The-future-of-heating-in-UK-buildings-Committee-on-Climate-
Change.pdf
?
To
2050…
Low carbon heat by early 2030s in CCC scenarios:
1 in 7 homes & half of public and commercial buildings
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Annex - Buildings heat policy: Five low-regrets areas and one that requires big decisions in the next Parliament