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February 28, 2007 1
Adapting to change in climate and climate variability
Peter KouwenhovenIGCI
University of WaikatoHamilton, New Zealand
February 28, 2007 2
IGCI
THEMES:• Climate Impacts &
Adaptation• Integrated Assessment &
Modelling• Environmental Planning &
Governance• Sustainable Community
Development• Health & Environment• Coastal Assessment &
Management• Natural Hazards
FEATURES:• Interdisciplinary• Collaborative• Span scales – global,
regional, national and local
• Integrative – research, training, policy and planning
• End-user orientated• University based, but
financially self-sufficient
Implementation of adaptation measures
Implementation of adaptation measures
“Mainstreaming”adaptation
into plans, policies, strategies
“Mainstreaming”adaptation
into plans, policies, strategies
“Mainstreaming”adaptation
into plans, policies, strategies
Awareness Raising & Capacity BuildingAwareness Raising & Capacity BuildingAwareness Raising & Capacity Building
Knowledge, Data, Toolse.g. integrated assessment models Knowledge, Data, Toolse.g. integrated assessment models Knowledge, Data, Toolse.g. integrated assessment models
Evaluation & Monitoring for feedback and change
Evaluation & Monitoring for feedback and change
Evaluation & Monitoring for feedback and change
Risk Assessmentse.g. coastal flood risk
Risk Assessmentse.g. coastal flood risk
Risk Assessmentse.g. coastal flood risk
Climate Change Adaptation through Integrated Risk Reduction (CCAIRR)
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Adaptation assessment
• identify problems + potential adaptations• analyse extreme events without/with
climate change, without/with adaptation, over time, including land use change
• find the incremental costs of adaptation due to climate change, and the incremental benefits because of (additional) adaptation
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Example 1: climate proofing Avatiu Harbour Development
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Example 2: watertank designLongest shortage (days) and number of shortage periods (>28 days) over 82 years for various adaptation options (comparing base and climate change scenario of 10% less annual rainfall, implemented by -1 mm of rain) max shortage # periods description tank area usage base scen. base scen. base 2000 15 80 133 135 101 105 save 2000 15 50 74 123 30 39 incr. roof 2000 25 80 72 121 35 48 incr. tank 3000 15 80 133 135 86 93 best 3000 25 50 48 50 2 4 The tank sizes required to completely avoid a shortage of water, are (base/ climate change):
roof area daily consumption 15 m2 20 m2 25 m2 50 22500/30500 11000/14500 6000/10000 80 np np np
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Example 3: coastal impacts
Significant Wave Height
Max. Wind
Atmospheric Pressure
Significant Wave Height
Max. Wind
Atmospheric Pressure
Max. Wind
Atmospheric Pressure
Wind set-up
+
Run-up elevation
+Wave set-up
+Wave run-up
Barometric set-up
Mean sea-level +
Wind set-up
+Wind set-up
+
Run-up elevationRun-up elevation
+Wave set-up
+Wave run-up
+Wave set-up
+Wave run-up
Wave set-up+
Wave run-up
Barometric set-up
Mean sea-level +
Barometric set-up
Mean sea-level +
Climate Change
Tropical cyclone intensity
Sea Level RiseClimate Change
Tropical cyclone intensity
Sea Level Rise
Tropical cyclone intensity
Sea Level Rise
Adaptation Measures & Design
Return Period
Acceptable risk levels
Adaptation Measures & Design
Return PeriodReturn Period
Acceptable risk levels
Acceptable risk levels
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Lessons learned
• data, data, data …• adaptations: focus on reducing both present and
future risks related to climate variability and extremes; “think out of the box”
• but: risk approach is very difficult to convey (long term vs. short term)
• stake-holder involvement (both problem assessment and solution implementation) should be as early and extensive as possible
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Gaps, needs and concerns
• interactive development of adaptation options with generic approach and transferable solutions needed
• many but not all problems have a climate component…
• climate change models need to be improved (resolution & accuracy)
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Roles of actors
• integration (“mainstreaming”) of adaptation across all levels (local, national, regional) in: project planning/implementation, land use planning/regulation/enforcement, national strategic planning
• (pro-)actively, transparent, within given (short) timeframe
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UNFCCC process
• press international community to pay the incremental costs of adaptation due to climate change more forthcoming