การคาดการณ์สถานการณ์น้ำปี 2552

Download การคาดการณ์สถานการณ์น้ำปี 2552

Post on 05-Jan-2016

88 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

2552. . . 30 2552. Water Resources System Research Unit, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University. . - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

  • 2552. .

    30 2552

  • *

  • wavelet & cross wavelet*

  • ( .. 1995) 1 1995 4

  • ( .. 1995) 1 1995

  • Moisture Sources/recycling in theAsian Summer Monsoon(Lau et al; Chen et al; Aggarwal et al)Moisture source controls on isotope distribution in Asian Monsoon*

  • El Nino/La Nina PatternEl Nio Conditions. Warm water pool approaches South American coast. Absence of cold upwelling increases warming.La Nia Conditions. Warm water is further west than usualNormal Pacific pattern. Equatorial winds gather warm water pool toward west. Cold water upwells along South American coast.*(NOAA / PMEL / TAO)

  • Nino 3.4Nino 4Nino 1+2SOIDMI* ( .. 1995)

  • Wavelet Nino 3.4Nino 4Nino 1+2SOIDMIWavelet Transform*

  • X Wavelet Nino 3.4Nino 4Nino 1+2SOIDMIIndices*

  • Nino 3.4Nino 4Nino 1+2SOIDMIX Wavelet *

  • Using cross-wavelet analysis, Nino 3.4 index may be the most correlation to monthly temperature and rainfall data in Thailand.Focus on annual period, Nino 3.4 has the same phase as temperature in most part of Thailand; however, it leads rainfall by 90 or 3 months.Coherences of Nino 3.4 and temperature at 2-4 year period are significant with phase angle of 45.Coherences of Nino 3.4 and rainfall at 2-4 year period are relatively significant in the Southern region.Global Indices and Local Scale Relationships*

  • : * sine 2 2+12 2-12 **

    Nino 3.4 Nino 4 1 Nino1+2 DMI Nino 3.4- 0.5 , 1 , 4 1 , 12 4 .. 1990 6 .. 1995 Nino 3.4 .. 1998 () 1 *Nino 3.4 0-2 0-2 Nino 3.4 2-4 4-6

  • Forecastability*Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov*

  • Indian ocean SST*http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/

  • *CalibrationVerify

  • *Parameters

    Tmax SOI Nino3.4 Nino4

    Rain = 0.0097 + 0.0770 Tmax_lag(+9) - 0.0997 SOI_lag(+6) + 0.331 Nino34_lag(+9) - 0.422 Nino4_lag(+7)

  • * http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/Nino Monitoring http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/

  • Sensor Web TechnologySensor Web (Sensor) (GIS) Real-time *

  • Climate / Sensor Web Technology*

  • * GCM, Downscale MM5 forecastability () ( ) ()

  • * , 2552. / .

    Kshitij M. Kulkarni, Isotope Applications for Water Resource Management, Water Resources Programme, IAEA,2008

    NOAA (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov)

  • (.)

    *

  • For more information, contact:Water Resource System Research UnitChulalongkorn UniversityEmail : watercu@eng.chula.ac.th cu_wrsru@hotmail.comWebsite : www.watercu.eng.chula.ac.th

    *The circulation model with a divide at 100 degrees east separating Indian and East Asian circulation cells, the model was validated using isotopes as shown above.

    It shows that indeed there is a divide at 100 degrees east and the moisture is not mixing. Isotopes show that these two cells have different sources of moisture and in the East Asian cell the moisture is re-circulated causing depleted stable isotope signatures. This shows that the origin of moisture is not oceanic, as previously thought but is re-circulated moisture in a closed loop.