Slide 1

3rd Annual Missouri Basin River Forecasters MeetingNWS Regional Services Assessment preliminary overview

Noreen SchweinDeputy for Hydrologic ServicesNWS Central RegionJanuary 24, 2012

The NWS 2011 flood assessment covers the Missouri and Souris Rivers. It is a multi-regional assessment as the Missouri extends over portions of bout our Western and Central Regions. We are currently reviewing the first draft and expect it will be finalized within a few weeks. Im going to give a quick overview of some of the initial findings and recommendations that may be of interest to our group here today. I do want to emphasize that it is an assessment of NWS services and certainly not of any other agencywill touch on those areas of common interest. Also want to note that these findings and recommendations are still preliminary. 1NWS Service Assessment Focus AreasFocus areas of the NWS Missouri/Souris River Floods of May-August 2011 Service AssessmentPer the NOAA and NWS Strategic Plans, gather stakeholder input and adjust services according to their requirementsDecision Support Services: the nature and effectiveness of the support provided and the methods of information managementScientific and modeling issues, including those related to data, snowmelt, ensemble and contingency forecastingEffectiveness of interagency collaborationIntra-agency services and collaboration among the River Forecast Centers (RFCs), Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) , National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC), and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)

The NOAA strategic plan calls for gathering stakeholder input and adjusting services accordingly so that is certainly one focus of the assessment. Other areas that we are probably all interested in include DSS, technical and scientific issues, interagency collaboration, and use of social media. The last bullet is more for internal NWS programmatic issues so wont cover that. 2Preliminary Findings/RecommendationsNot for Public ReleaseRecommendations for enhancements in hydrologic and water resources services includeExpansion of products and information producedIncreased forecast issuance frequencyNeed short-term probabilistic forecasts; various contingency forecasts caused some confusionNeed further implementation of flood inundation maps (FIM) and some consistency among the agencies creating themImprovements in the design, support and overall effectiveness of the Decision Support Services (DSS)

Preliminary Findings/RecommendationsNot for Public ReleaseScience and Technology RecommendationsExpedite implementation of HEC-RAS in areas affected by backwaterEnhance Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF)Need for product consistency within NWS More consistent use of QPF in river forecastsNeed outreach as to use of QPF in river forecastsExpedite implementation of short-term ensemble forecasts (HEFS)Expedite calibration and modeling of reservoir operations

In the area of science and technology we need to continue to work toward full implementation of HEC-RAS and have certainly come a long way with the help of the Corps. Our QPF products have sometimes caused confusion in that there are several sources that can be inconsistent. We also have inconsistencies in the amount used, time-wise, which was brought up as a source of confusion. Our agency has been struggling with this over a number of years. Some RFCs use less than 24 hours of QPF and others use several days to a week. There is scientific reasoning for some of the differences and we need to better communicate that. As we move toward short term probabilistic river forecasts, these issues should greatly diminish. In the meantime, we need to be more clear with our use of QPF in river forecasts. 4Preliminary Findings/RecommendationsNot for Public ReleaseData NeedsSeek alternative sources for precipitation informationImprove use of existing observational networksEnhance current data collections (e.g., snow core for SWE)Resolve differences in agency rating curves where available to the publicExpedite data interoperability through the multi-agency initiative, Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS)

Preliminary Findings/RecommendationsNot for Public ReleaseInteragency CollaborationOverall superb; meetings such as these forecasters meetings were cited as greatly enhancing the capability to react to the unique eventThe coordinated range of forecasts collaborated by USACE/NWD, Omaha and KC Districts; and MBRFC were lauded by external customers as a great example of interagency collaborationDelicate nature of providing one message from all the agencies was addressed (USACE-NWS web page)

Preliminary Findings/RecommendationsNot for Public ReleaseRecommendations for Services to PartnersEnhance/Develop volumetric forecast informationShare verification information so partners can assess historical accuracy and confidenceSimplify Flood Warning product suiteEnsure impact statements are accurateInclude information related to leveesNumerous suggestions for web page enhancementsDevelop climate products that identify potential for extreme eventsWebinars and briefings were noted as a best practice

Recommendations from our agencies represented here today include expansion of volumetric forecasts, access to verification information so that you all can have a better feel for the confidence in the forecast and simplification of our flood warning products. One area within those products where we could use your help is in the accuracy of the impact statements we use in our warnings, and also the impacts related to levees.7Preliminary RecommendationsNot for Public ReleaseDecision Support Services (DSS)Expand the frequency, timing, content, consistency, and location of river forecast services to meet stakeholder requirementsNWS DSS personnel need to understand the ICS structure and related EOC proceduresNWS needs to establish policy and provide guidance to enable the effective execution of DSSEvaluate how to appropriately respond to requests for embargoed information (e.g., city officials may need info ahead of time in order to properly respond to public)NWS Meteorological support at USACE EOC was valuable

8Status of Regional AssessmentCurrently in reviewFinal draft expected in next few weeksShould be available to public in Feb