US Army Corps of EngineersBUILDING STRONG®

Missouri River Basin Water ManagementFall 2016 Public Meetings

Smithville, MOCouncil Bluffs, IAPierre, SDBismarck, NDFort Peck, MT

October 5th

October 5th

October 6th

October 6th

October 7th

11:00 a.m.5:00 p.m.

11:00 a.m.6:00 p.m.

10:00 a.m.

Fort Peck

Oahe Big Bend

Fort Randall

Gavins Point

GarrisonMontana

NorthDakota

Wyoming

Nebraska

KansasMissouri

Iowa

SouthDakota

Colorado

NorthDakota

Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System

2

Our Mission

Recreation

Water Supply Water Quality Control

Navigation

Flood Control

IrrigationFish and Wildlife Including Threatened and

Endangered Species

Hydropower

Regulate Missouri River Mainstem Reservoirs to Support Congressionally Authorized Purposes

3

4

5

Missouri River Mainstem SystemStorage Zones and Allocations

Exclusive Flood Control 6%

Carryover Multiple Use 53%

Permanent Pool 25%

0

17.6

56.1

72.4

67.7

72.8

StorageIn MAF*

33.9

Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16%

Historic max - 2011

Historic min - 2007

57.4

6

Oct 2, 2016

*Storages updated in August 2013 based on reservoir surveys.

We are here

Mainstem Reservoir Storage Capacity

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fort Peck Garrison Oahe Big Bend Fort Randall Gavins Point

Permanent Carryover Annual Flood Exclusive Flood

Million Acre-Feet

7

May, June and July

March and April

March through October

Runoff Components

2016 Forecast = 22.7 MAF, 90% of average*

Mountain SnowpackPlains Snowpack Rainfall

8*October 1 forecast; average runoff is 25.3 MAF

Plains Snowpack

9Source: NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)

March 1, 2016

02468

101214161820222426

O N D J F M A M J J A S

Inch

es o

f Wat

er E

quiv

alen

t

Total Fort Peck to Garrison

2015-16 1981-2010 Ave

Missouri River Basin2015-16 Mountain Snowpack

month

Source: USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) National Water and Climate Center

month

10

02468

101214161820222426

O N D J F M A M J J A S

Inch

es o

f Wat

er E

quiv

alen

t

Total above Fort Peck

2015-16 1981-2010 Ave

Peak – 95%April 1 Peak – 89%

April 2

11

Precipitation - Percent of NormalPrevious 180 Days

Previous 90 Days

Source: National Weather Service, Missouri Basin River Forecast Center (MBRFC)

12

13

Long-Term OutlooksTemperature and Precipitation

14Source: National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

Oct-Nov-Dec Oct-Nov-Dec

Missouri River Mainstem SystemAnnual Runoff above Sioux City, IA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Million Acre-Feet

U.D.

L.D.L.Q.

U.Q.

Med.

10%

90% 75%

25%

50%

34.5 MAF

16.119.3

30.6

24.6

Historic Drought Periods

2016

15Year

Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2016 Actual and Forecast

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2016 Average Forecast

Million Acre-Feet

16

Fall / Winter Releases

17

Gavins Point Dam winter releases will be reduced to winter rate beginning approximately November 21st (normal navigation season)

Will closely monitor channel/ice conditions between reservoirs and downstream of Gavins Point Dam

Gavins Point Dam winter releases of at least 17 kcfs (1000 cfs) to complete evacuation of stored flood waters

Expected releases in kcfs:Nov Dec Jan Feb

Fort Peck 4.5 5.5 6.5 6.5Garrison 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.0 Gavins Point 24.0 17.0 17.0 17.0

Results of 2016 Regulation and Planned Operation for

Authorized Purposes in 2017

18

Current Reservoir Levels – October 2, 2016

2220.1

Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &

Multiple Use

Carryover Multiple Use

Permanent Pool

2250

2220.1

Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &

Multiple Use

Carryover Multiple Use

Permanent Pool

2220.1

Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &

Multiple Use

Carryover Multiple Use

Permanent Pool

2220.1

Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &

Multiple Use

Carryover Multiple Use

Permanent Pool

2246

2234

2160

2030

18541850

1837.5

1775

1673

16201617

1607.5

1540

1415

13751365

1350

1320

1240

Fort Peck

Oahe

Garrison

Fort Randall

2233.4

1838.4

1609.8 1352.4

0.6 feet below base of Flood Control zone

2.4 feet above base of Flood Control zone 19

Elevation in feet msl

Elevation in feet msl

Elevation in feet msl

Elevation in feet msl

0.9 feet above base of Flood Control zone

2.3 feet above base of Flood Control zone

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F

System Storage 2016-2017 Draft AOP

Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 72.4 MAF

Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 67.7 MAF

Million Acre-Feet

Base of Annual Flood Control – 56.1 MAF

2016 2017 2018

System Storage Check

20

Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian

2215

2220

2225

2230

2235

2240

2245

2250

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F

Fort Peck 2016-2017 Draft AOP

Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 2250 feet msl

Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 2246 feet msl

Elevation in feet msl

Base of Annual Flood Control – 2234 feet msl

2016 2017 201821

Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian

1820

1825

1830

1835

1840

1845

1850

1855

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F

Garrison2016-2017 Draft AOP

Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 1854 feet msl

Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 1850 feet msl

Elevation in feet msl

Base of Annual Flood Control – 1837.5 feet msl

2016 2017 201822

Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian

1590

1595

1600

1605

1610

1615

1620

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F

Oahe 2016-2017 Draft AOP

Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 1620 feet msl

Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 1617 feet msl

Elevation in feet msl

Base of Annual Flood Control – 1607.5 feet msl

2016 2017 201823

Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian

Flood Damages Prevented by Mainstem DamsIndexed to 2015 Levels

26.2

13.5

8.2

0.4

3.32.1

8.6

0.1

3.2

0.5 0.4

3.3 3.82.6

5.9

0.1 0.21.0 1.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 Billion Dollars

24

Total Damages Prevented = $58.2 billion

2016►All 2015 flood water evacuated from reservoir

system by late January 2016►System storage peaked on June 22 at 60.1

MAF, utilizing 25 percent of the system’s flood control storage

2017►All scenarios start next year’s runoff season at

or below the base of the annual flood control zone

Flooding can still occur due to downstream rainfall

Flood Control

25

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17

Gavins Point Fort Randall Big Bend Oahe Garrison Fort Peck ForecastYear

Billion kWh

Hydropower

26

Missouri RiverTotal Navigation Tonnage

0123456789

10

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Commercial Waterway Materials Sand and Gravel Estimated

Million Tons

27Year

2016 – Full service, full length season 2017 – March 15 Storage Check

► Full service level flow support median and above runoff► Reductions of 1,700 and 1,900 cfs for lower quartile and lower

decile respectively► Target locations: Sioux City, Omaha, Nebraska City and

Kansas City

2017 – July 1 Storage Check► Full length season (all runoff scenarios)

• 10-day extension for upper quartile and upper decile runoff► Full service level flow support for median runoff and above► Reductions of 2,400 and 3,600 cfs for lower quartile and lower

decile, respectively

Navigation

28

Water Supply – Water Quality

2016►Near average releases and reservoir elevations

• Water supply intakes, recreation areas, irrigation, and marinas

►Gavins Point Dam winter releases of 17 kcfs 2017

►Near normal reservoir levels and releases►Gavins Point Dam winter releases of 16 kcfs

under median runoff

Irrigation – Recreation

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Steady to rising levels at upper three reservoirs during forage fish spawn►Favor Fort Peck and Oahe if runoff below

normal

Minimize periods of zero releases at Fort Randall Coldwater habitat will be monitored

2017 Fish and Wildlife

30

Endangered Species Act of 1973

Pallid SturgeonListed “Endangered” 1990

Piping PloverListed “Threatened” 1986

Interior Least TernListed “Endangered” 1986

Each Federal agency shall... ensure that any action authorized, funded, or carried out by such agency… is not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of any endangered or threatened species or result in the destruction or adverse modification of habitat…

31

Regulation from mid-May to late August Availability of sandbar habitat remains high Adult populations of both species remain strong

► Highest recorded populations on the upper Missouri since monitoring began

3-year running average fledge ratios met for both species

Weather events and predation affected nest success and productivity

2016 Piping Plover and Least TernThreatened and Endangered Species

32

Gavins Point releases►Steady release – flow to target►Cycle Gavins Point releases

Intra-day peaking patterns – Garrison and Fort Randall Measures to minimize take

►Utilize Kansas River projects for navigation support

►Target flows may not be met in reaches without commercial navigation

2017 Piping Plover and Least TernThreatened and Endangered Species

33

2003 Amended Biological Opinion –Reasonable and Prudent Alternative Neither pulse conducted in 2016 Neither pulse planned in 2017

►Pursuing independent science advisory panel (ISAP) recommendations

►Forego spring pulse while developing management plan

Bi-Modal Spring Pulse – Pallid SturgeonThreatened and Endangered Species

34

Summary

All flood storage space available to start 2017 runoff season Near normal releases and reservoir levels

(median runoff) Good service to all authorized purposes

35