2019 long-term reliability assessment...2019 long-term reliability assessment john moura, director,...

RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY

2019 Long-Term Reliability Assessment

John Moura, Director, Reliability Assessment and Performance AnalysisMedia WebinarDecember 19, 2019

RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY2

NERC Reliability Assessments

• Reliability Resource Adequacy Operating Reliability

• Transmission Adequacy• Demand and Generation Forecasts• Demand-Side Management• Regional Coordination• Key Issues – Emerging Trends Technical Challenges Evolving Market Practices System Elements/Dynamics Potential Legislation/Regulation


Margins Evaluation

Inadequate: Anticipated and Prospective Reserve Margins are less than the Reference Margin Level and Tier 3 resources are unlikely to advance.

Marginal: Anticipated Reserve Margin is lower than Reference Margin Level and Prospective Reserve Margin is higher than Reference Margin Level.

Adequate: Anticipated Reserve Margin is greater than Reference Margin Level.


• Resource Adequacy: Projected reserves fall below the Reference Margin Level in TRE-ERCOT and NPCC-Ontario; there is sufficient generation supply in all other areas

• Resource Mix Changes: Resource mix changes are driven by the addition of large amounts of new wind, solar, and natural gas resources

• Storage and Distributed Energy Resources: Large amounts of storage and distributed energy resources require coordinated interconnection and a robust transmission system

• Transmission: Transmission planning and infrastructure development need to keep pace with an increasing amount of utility scale wind and solar resources

Highlights of Key Findings


Projected 2024 Peak Planning Reserve Margins

Key Finding: Anticipated and Prospective Planning Reserve Margin Shortfall

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Anticipated Reserve Margin Prospective Reserve Margin Reference Margin Level



Texas-RE-ERCOT Reserve Margins

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Anticipated Reserve Margin (%) Prospective Reserve Margin (%) Reference Margin Level (%)



Texas-RE-ERCOT Reserve Margins



NPCC-Ontario Reserve Margins


• 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of peak demand increased for the first time in 15 years for North America. Summer growth is 0.63% and winter growth is 0.68%.

Key Finding: Demand Growth

0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%2.0%2.2%

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

1990

–99

1991

–00

1992

–01

1993

–02

1994

–03

1995

–04

1996

–05

1997

–06

1998

–07

1999

–08

2000

–09

2001

–10

2002

–11

2003

–12

2004

–13

2005

–14

2006

–15

2007

–16

2008

–17

2009

–18

2010

–19

2011

–21

2013

–22*

2014

–23

2015

–24

2016

–25

2017

–26

2018

–27

2019

–28

2020

-202

9

CAGR

GW

10–Year Summer Growth (MW) 10–Year Winter Growth (MW)

Summer CAGR (%) Winter CAGR (%)


• Load growth in all Assessment Areas is 2% or under, with three areas projecting negative load growth.

Key Finding: Demand Growth


Key Finding: Changing Resource Mix

Nameplate/ Installed Capacity

On-Peak Capacity



Tier 1 and 2 Planned Resources Projected Through 2029

More than 330 GW of new BPS-level Wind and Solar Installed Capacity by 2029


Solar and Wind Output Needed For Peak Adequacy

Assessment Areas with Solar and Wind CapacityGreater than 5% of On-Peak Demand; California and Texas

Reliant on Solar and Wind Output



Committed Retirements Through 2029 Expected to Surpass Those of Last 7 Years


• On-peak natural gas-fired capacity has increased to 455 GW, up from 359 GW in 2009.

• 100 GW of Tier 1 gas-fired capacity is planned during the next decade. Assessment

Area2024(%)

FRCC 78.1%WECC-CAMX 68.2%

Texas RE-ERCOT

63.3%

NPCC-New England

52.3%

WECC-SRSG 51.8%WECC-AB 51.8%

Changing Resource Mix: Increasing Gas-Fired Generation

-

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

Existing Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3


• May 2017 – CAISO first Stage 1 Emergency in 10 years • October 2017 – EEA3 (demand response activated; no load shed)• March 2018 – Record breakers: All-time demand served by transmission-connected solar was 49.95% Three-Hour upward net-load ramp was 14,777 MW; 1-Hour 7,545 MW

• Larger ramps in shoulder seasons; however, supply scarcity more likely during summer conditions

• June 2019 – Two EEA3• Projected 2021 Maximum

Three-Hour Ramp = 17,048 MW

Key Finding: Solar Increases Need for Flexible Resources


Key Finding: DER Projections

Storage Projected to Increase Over Five Years

10-Year Projected Total Installed DER/BTM Solar PV

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,000

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Capa

city

(MW

)

Storage

Existing Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Capa

city

(MW

)


Transmission Needed to Accommodate Wind and Solar Resources

Historical 10-Year Transmission Projections Compared to Current Projection

Line Lengths of Projected Projects

Shorter Lines

Less Line Miles


LTRA Development Process

2019 long-term reliability assessment...2019 long-term reliability assessment john moura, director,...

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