RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY
2019 Long-Term Reliability Assessment
John Moura, Director, Reliability Assessment and Performance AnalysisMedia WebinarDecember 19, 2019
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY2
NERC Reliability Assessments
• Reliability Resource Adequacy Operating Reliability
• Transmission Adequacy• Demand and Generation Forecasts• Demand-Side Management• Regional Coordination• Key Issues – Emerging Trends Technical Challenges Evolving Market Practices System Elements/Dynamics Potential Legislation/Regulation
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY3
Margins Evaluation
Inadequate: Anticipated and Prospective Reserve Margins are less than the Reference Margin Level and Tier 3 resources are unlikely to advance.
Marginal: Anticipated Reserve Margin is lower than Reference Margin Level and Prospective Reserve Margin is higher than Reference Margin Level.
Adequate: Anticipated Reserve Margin is greater than Reference Margin Level.
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY4
• Resource Adequacy: Projected reserves fall below the Reference Margin Level in TRE-ERCOT and NPCC-Ontario; there is sufficient generation supply in all other areas
• Resource Mix Changes: Resource mix changes are driven by the addition of large amounts of new wind, solar, and natural gas resources
• Storage and Distributed Energy Resources: Large amounts of storage and distributed energy resources require coordinated interconnection and a robust transmission system
• Transmission: Transmission planning and infrastructure development need to keep pace with an increasing amount of utility scale wind and solar resources
Highlights of Key Findings
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY5
Projected 2024 Peak Planning Reserve Margins
Key Finding: Anticipated and Prospective Planning Reserve Margin Shortfall
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Anticipated Reserve Margin Prospective Reserve Margin Reference Margin Level
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY6
Key Finding: Anticipated and Prospective Planning Reserve Margin Shortfall
Texas-RE-ERCOT Reserve Margins
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Anticipated Reserve Margin (%) Prospective Reserve Margin (%) Reference Margin Level (%)
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY7
Key Finding: Anticipated and Prospective Planning Reserve Margin Shortfall
Texas-RE-ERCOT Reserve Margins
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY8
Key Finding: Anticipated and Prospective Planning Reserve Margin Shortfall
NPCC-Ontario Reserve Margins
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY9
• 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of peak demand increased for the first time in 15 years for North America. Summer growth is 0.63% and winter growth is 0.68%.
Key Finding: Demand Growth
0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%2.0%2.2%
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1990
–99
1991
–00
1992
–01
1993
–02
1994
–03
1995
–04
1996
–05
1997
–06
1998
–07
1999
–08
2000
–09
2001
–10
2002
–11
2003
–12
2004
–13
2005
–14
2006
–15
2007
–16
2008
–17
2009
–18
2010
–19
2011
–21
2013
–22*
2014
–23
2015
–24
2016
–25
2017
–26
2018
–27
2019
–28
2020
-202
9
CAGR
GW
10–Year Summer Growth (MW) 10–Year Winter Growth (MW)
Summer CAGR (%) Winter CAGR (%)
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY10
• Load growth in all Assessment Areas is 2% or under, with three areas projecting negative load growth.
Key Finding: Demand Growth
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY11
Key Finding: Changing Resource Mix
Nameplate/ Installed Capacity
On-Peak Capacity
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY12
Key Finding: Changing Resource Mix
Tier 1 and 2 Planned Resources Projected Through 2029
More than 330 GW of new BPS-level Wind and Solar Installed Capacity by 2029
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY13
Solar and Wind Output Needed For Peak Adequacy
Assessment Areas with Solar and Wind CapacityGreater than 5% of On-Peak Demand; California and Texas
Reliant on Solar and Wind Output
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY14
Key Finding: Changing Resource Mix
Committed Retirements Through 2029 Expected to Surpass Those of Last 7 Years
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY15
• On-peak natural gas-fired capacity has increased to 455 GW, up from 359 GW in 2009.
• 100 GW of Tier 1 gas-fired capacity is planned during the next decade. Assessment
Area2024(%)
FRCC 78.1%WECC-CAMX 68.2%
Texas RE-ERCOT
63.3%
NPCC-New England
52.3%
WECC-SRSG 51.8%WECC-AB 51.8%
Changing Resource Mix: Increasing Gas-Fired Generation
-
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Existing Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY16
• May 2017 – CAISO first Stage 1 Emergency in 10 years • October 2017 – EEA3 (demand response activated; no load shed)• March 2018 – Record breakers: All-time demand served by transmission-connected solar was 49.95% Three-Hour upward net-load ramp was 14,777 MW; 1-Hour 7,545 MW
• Larger ramps in shoulder seasons; however, supply scarcity more likely during summer conditions
• June 2019 – Two EEA3• Projected 2021 Maximum
Three-Hour Ramp = 17,048 MW
Key Finding: Solar Increases Need for Flexible Resources
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY17
Key Finding: DER Projections
Storage Projected to Increase Over Five Years
10-Year Projected Total Installed DER/BTM Solar PV
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Capa
city
(MW
)
Storage
Existing Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Capa
city
(MW
)
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY18
Transmission Needed to Accommodate Wind and Solar Resources
Historical 10-Year Transmission Projections Compared to Current Projection
Line Lengths of Projected Projects
Shorter Lines
Less Line Miles
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY19
RELIABILITY | RESILIENCE | SECURITY20
LTRA Development Process