2014 economic outlook 19 th annual survey
DESCRIPTION
2014 Economic Outlook 19 th annual survey. Fielded December 2-5, 2013 1,003 Canada-wide online interviews ( margin of error for a probability sample of this size: ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20 ). Perceptions of Canada’s Economy: Just over half (52%) believe Canada is still in recession. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
2014 Economic Outlook
19th annual survey
Fielded December 2-5, 2013
1,003 Canada-wide online interviews (margin of error for a probability sample of this size: ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
11%
3%
17%
74%
19%
51%
62%
53%
12%3% 8%7%
9%
4% 3% 3% 5%3%
27%
44%
63%
56%
61%
33%
64%
23% 21%25%
40% 40%39%
25%
29%
17%
12%
55%52%55%49%
5%
1% 1%0% 0%
4% 5%9% 11%15%
0% 0%2%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Severe recession Mild recession Moderate growth Strong growth
Which of the following best describes how you feel about Canada’s economy? Is the economy in a severe recession, a mild recession, a period of moderate growth, or a period of strong growth?
Perceptions of Canada’s Economy: Just over half (52%) believe Canada is still in recession
85%
36%
14%22%
52%54%
26% 28%26%
44%
91%
78%
65%
70%65%
41%40%
53%
60%
71%67% 66%
6%17%
29%
25%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Recession
Growth
Which of the following best describes how you feel about Canada’s economy? Is the economy in a severe recession, a mild recession, a period of moderate growth, or a period of strong growth?
Perceptions of Canada’s Economy: 6th consecutive year majority of Canadians feel we’re in recession
[IF RECESSION] How much longer do you expect the current recession to last for?
Expected Duration of Recession: Only 23% expect recession to end in 2014
19%
19%
14%
25%
19%4%
6 Months or Less
7 Months to a Year
13 Months to 18 Months
Don’t Know
Over 2 Years
19 Months to 2 Years
Perceived Personal Financial Situation: Majority are holding their own, but just 17% “getting ahead”
Thinking of your overall financial situation, over the past few years, would you say you are getting ahead, holding your own or losing ground?
52%
55% 57%48%
51%47%
45%42%
46%42%
45%45%
26%
17%18%20%18%
24%
17%16%
21% 21% 23%
25%
18%
24%
33%
27%32%
27%36%
34%33%33%
20%
39%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Holding your ownGetting aheadLosing ground
Household Income vs. Cost of Living: Increase from last year in the number falling behind the cost of living
45%
41%
51%50%49%48%
42%41%
47%44%
42%
55%
44%
49%
37%
50%
43%
45%
51%
38%39%44%
48%47%49%
48%
41%42%
47%
29%
37%
45%
42%
35%
32%
50%
35%
9%8%
9%8%
10%
8%
10% 11%
9%11%
12%
8% 9%8%
8%
12%
10%6%8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Keep paceFall behindMore than keep pace
Do you think that your household income this year will more than keep pace with the cost of living, keep pace with it, or fall behind the cost of living?
And over the next twelve months, do you expect each of the following to improve, worsen, or not change:
Expectations for the Next 12 Months: Outlook for Canada’s economy more positive than for US or Global economy
16% 35% 36% 13%
21% 31% 39% 9%
19% 37% 22% 21%
26% 43% 23% 8%
32% 45% 16% 7%
Improve Not Change Worsen Don't Know
Canada's Economy
Canada's Employment Situation
The Stock Market
The United States Economy
The Global Economy
And over the next twelve months, do you expect each of the following to improve, worsen, or not change: Canada’s Economy
Expectations for Canada’s Economy: Optimists outnumber pessimists, but outlook less upbeat than this time last year
30%
45%
19%
7%
31%
26%
35%
8%
20%
17%
57%
6%
54%
27%
14%5%
38%
36%
19%
6%
25%
40%
27%
7%
36%
46%
15%3%
32%
45%
16%7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20142013201220112010200920082007
Improve Not Change Worsen Don't Know
And over the next twelve months, do you expect each of the following to improve, worsen, or not change: Canada’s Employment Situation
Expectations for Canada’s Employment Situation: Similar number expect it to worsen and improve over next year
31%
40%
21%
8%
26%
28%
38%
8%
12%
14%
68%
7%
43%
30%
22%
6%
31%
38%
25%
6%
20%
39%
35%
7%
31%
44%
21%
4%
26%
43%
23%
8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20142013201220112010200920082007
Improve Not Change Worsen Don't Know
And over the next twelve months, do you expect each of the following to increase, decrease, or not change:
Economic Expectations for Next 12 Months: Majority expect debt, taxes, and inflation to increase
17% 40% 33% 10%
60% 28% 3% 9%
61% 28% 5% 6%
55% 26% 11% 8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Increase Not Change Decrease Don't Know/Refused
Canada's National Debt
Taxes
Inflation
The Value of the Canadian Dollar
34%
25%
22%22%
25%
31%
19%19%
22%
16%
24%
23%
29%
22%
28%
19%
23%27%
32%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
% who believe that it is either “somewhat or very likely they or someone in their household may lose his/her job in the next 12 months”
How likely do you think it is that you or a member of your immediate family may lose his or her job in the next twelve months?
Likelihood of Job Loss in Next 12 Months: Fear of job loss is higher than at any point over past 19 years
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Dan ArnoldAssociate Vice President, Public Affairs
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