15th street development phase ii apartments · 15th street development phase ii will be on the site...

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Market Feasibility Analysis

15th Street Development Phase II

Apartments

Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia

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Prepared for:

Walton Communities

Effective Date: May 5, 2016

Site Inspection: May 3, 2016

15th Street Development Phase II | Table of Contents�

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... V�

1.� INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1�

A.� Overview of Subject .............................................................................................................................................. 1�B.� Purpose of Report ................................................................................................................................................. 1�C.� Format of Report .................................................................................................................................................. 1�D.� Client, Intended User, and Intended Use ............................................................................................................. 1�E.� Applicable Requirements ...................................................................................................................................... 1�F.� Scope of Work ...................................................................................................................................................... 1�G.� Report Limitations ................................................................................................................................................ 2�

2.� PROJECT DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................... 3�

A.� Project Overview .................................................................................................................................................. 3�B.� Project Type and Target Market ........................................................................................................................... 3�C.� Building Types and Placement .............................................................................................................................. 3�D.� Detailed Project Description ................................................................................................................................. 4�

1.� Project Description ....................................................................................................................................... 4�2.� Other Proposed Uses ................................................................................................................................... 5�3.� Proposed Timing of Development ............................................................................................................... 5�

3.� SITE AND NEIGHBORHOOD ANALYSIS ............................................................................. 7�

A.� Site Analysis .......................................................................................................................................................... 7�1.� Site Location ................................................................................................................................................. 7�2.� Existing Uses ................................................................................................................................................. 7�3.� Size, Shape, and Topography ....................................................................................................................... 7�4.� General Description of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site ................................................................. 7�5.� Specific Identification of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site ............................................................... 7�

B.� Neighborhood Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 12�1.� General Description of Neighborhood ....................................................................................................... 12�2.� Neighborhood Planning Activities .............................................................................................................. 12�3.� Public Safety ............................................................................................................................................... 12�

C.� Site Visibility and Accessibility ............................................................................................................................ 13�1.� Visibility ...................................................................................................................................................... 13�2.� Vehicular Access ......................................................................................................................................... 14�3.� Availability of Public Transit and Inter-Regional Transit ............................................................................ 14�4.� Accessibility Improvements under Construction and Planned .................................................................. 14�5.� Environmental Concerns ............................................................................................................................ 14�

D.� Residential Support Network .............................................................................................................................. 14�1.� Key Facilities and Services near the Subject Site ........................................................................................ 14�2.� Essential Services ....................................................................................................................................... 15�3.� Commercial Goods and Services ................................................................................................................ 16�4.� Location of Low Income Housing ............................................................................................................... 17�

E.� Site Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 17�

4.� MARKET AREA DEFINITION ........................................................................................... 18�

A.� Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 18�B.� Delineation of Market Area ................................................................................................................................ 18�

5.� ECONOMIC CONTENT ................................................................................................... 20�

A.� Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 20�B.� Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment .................................................................................. 20�

1.� Trends in County Labor Force and Resident Employment ......................................................................... 20�2.� Trends in County Unemployment Rate ...................................................................................................... 20�

C.� Commutation Patterns ....................................................................................................................................... 20�D.� At-Place Employment ......................................................................................................................................... 22�


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1.� Trends in Total At-Place Employment ........................................................................................................ 22�2.� At-Place Employment by Industry Sector................................................................................................... 23�3.� Major Employers ........................................................................................................................................ 24�4.� Recent Economic Expansions and Contractions ........................................................................................ 26�5.� Conclusions on Local Economics ................................................................................................................ 26�

6.� DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ............................................................................................. 27�

A.� Introduction and Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 27�B.� Trends in Population and Households ................................................................................................................ 27�

1.� Recent Past Trends ..................................................................................................................................... 27�2.� Projected Trends ........................................................................................................................................ 27�3.� Building Permit Trends ............................................................................................................................... 27�

C.� Demographic Characteristics .............................................................................................................................. 29�1.� Age Distribution and Household Type ....................................................................................................... 29�2.� Renter Household Characteristics .............................................................................................................. 30�3.� Income Characteristics ............................................................................................................................... 31�

7.� COMPETITIVE HOUSING ANALYSIS ................................................................................ 33�

A.� Introduction and Sources of Information ........................................................................................................... 33�B.� Overview of Market Area Housing Stock ............................................................................................................ 33�C.� Survey of General Occupancy Rental Communities ........................................................................................... 34�

1.� Introduction to the Rental Housing Survey ................................................................................................ 34�2.� Location ...................................................................................................................................................... 35�3.� Size of Communities ................................................................................................................................... 35�4.� Age of Communities ................................................................................................................................... 35�5.� Structure Type ............................................................................................................................................ 35�6.� Vacancy Rates ............................................................................................................................................ 35�7.� Rent Concessions ....................................................................................................................................... 35�8.� Absorption History ..................................................................................................................................... 35�

D.� Analysis of Product Offerings ............................................................................................................................. 37�1.� Payment of Utility Costs ............................................................................................................................. 37�2.� Unit Features .............................................................................................................................................. 38�3.� Parking ....................................................................................................................................................... 38�4.� Community Amenities ................................................................................................................................ 38�5.� Unit Distribution ......................................................................................................................................... 40�6.� Effective Rents ........................................................................................................................................... 40�7.� DCA Average Market Rent ......................................................................................................................... 41�

E.� Interviews ........................................................................................................................................................... 42�F.� Multi-Family Pipeline .......................................................................................................................................... 43�G.� Housing Authority Data ...................................................................................................................................... 43�H.� Existing Low Income Rental Housing .................................................................................................................. 43�I.� Impact of Abandoned, Vacant, or Foreclosed Homes ........................................................................................ 44�

8.� FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS....................................................................................... 46�

A.� Key Findings ........................................................................................................................................................ 46�1.� Site and Neighborhood Analysis ................................................................................................................ 46�2.� Economic Context ...................................................................................................................................... 46�3.� Population and Household Trends ............................................................................................................. 46�4.� Demographic Trends .................................................................................................................................. 47�5.� Competitive Housing Analysis .................................................................................................................... 48�

B.� Affordability Analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 48�1.� Methodology .............................................................................................................................................. 48�2.� Affordability Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 50�3.� Conclusions of Affordability ....................................................................................................................... 51�

C.� Demand Estimates and Capture Rates ............................................................................................................... 53�1.� Methodology .............................................................................................................................................. 53�


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2.� Demand Analysis ........................................................................................................................................ 53�D.� Product Evaluation ............................................................................................................................................. 55�E.� Price Position ...................................................................................................................................................... 56�F.� Absorption Estimate ........................................................................................................................................... 58�G.� Impact on Existing Market .................................................................................................................................. 58�H.� Final Conclusions and Recommendations .......................................................................................................... 58�

9.� APPENDIX 1 UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS ......................... 60�

10.� APPENDIX 2 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ..................................................................... 62�

11.� APPENDIX 3 NCHMA CERTIFICATION ......................................................................... 63�

12.� APPENDIX 4 ANALYST RESUMES ............................................................................... 64�

13.� APPENDIX 5 DCA CHECKLIST ..................................................................................... 67�

14.� APPENDIX 6 NCHMA CHECKLIST ................................................................................ 72�

15.� APPENDIX 7 RENTAL COMMUNITY PROFILES ............................................................. 75�


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TABLES, FIGURES AND MAPS

Table 1 15th Street Development Phase II Detailed Project Summary ........................................................................ 6�Table 2 Key Facilities and Services .............................................................................................................................. 15�Table 3 Labor Force and Unemployment Rates .......................................................................................................... 21�Table 4 2010-2014 Commuting Patterns, 15th Street Market Area ............................................................................ 21�Table 5 Major Employers, Richmond County ............................................................................................................. 25�Table 6 Major Employment Expansions and Layoffs, Richmond County .................................................................... 26�Table 7 Population and Household Projections .......................................................................................................... 28�Table 8 Building Permits by Structure Type, Richmond County ................................................................................. 28�Table 9 2016 Age Distribution .................................................................................................................................... 29�Table 10 2010 Households by Household Type ........................................................................................................... 30�Table 11 Households by Tenure................................................................................................................................. 30�Table 12 Renter Households by Age of Householder ................................................................................................ 31�Table 13 2010 Renter Households by Household Size ................................................................................................ 31�Table 14 2016 Household Income ............................................................................................................................... 32�Table 15 2016 Household Income by Tenure .............................................................................................................. 32�Table 16 Renter Occupied Unit by Structure Type ..................................................................................................... 33�Table 17 Dwelling Units by Year Built and Tenure ...................................................................................................... 34�Table 18 Value of Owner Occupied Housing Stock ...................................................................................................... 34�Table 19 Rental Summary, Surveyed Communities ..................................................................................................... 37�Table 20 Utility Arrangement and Unit Features ....................................................................................................... 39�Table 21 Community Amenities .................................................................................................................................. 40�Table 22 Unit Distribution, Size, and Pricing................................................................................................................ 41�Table 23 Average Market Rent .................................................................................................................................... 42�Table 24 Average Market Rent and Rent Advantage Summary ................................................................................. 42�Table 25 Subsidized Communities, 15th Street Market Area ..................................................................................... 43�Table 26 Foreclosure Rate and Recent Foreclosure Activity, ZIP Code 31088 ........................................................... 45�Table 27 2018 Total and Renter Income Distribution ................................................................................................. 49�Table 28 LIHTC Income and Rent Limits, Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC MSA ................................................... 50�Table 29 Affordability Analysis, 15th Street Development Phase II ........................................................................... 52�Table 30 Substandard and Cost Burdened Calculations ............................................................................................ 54�Table 31 DCA Demand by Income Level .................................................................................................................... 54�Table 32 DCA Demand by Floor Plan ......................................................................................................................... 55� Figure 1 15th Street Development Master Plan ............................................................................................................. 4�Figure 2 Satellite Image of Subject Site ......................................................................................................................... 9�Figure 3 Views of Subject Site ........................................................................................................................................ 9�Figure 4 Views of Surrounding Land Uses ................................................................................................................... 10�Figure 5 At-Place Employment ................................................................................................................................... 22�Figure 6 Total Employment by Sector, 2015(Q3) ........................................................................................................ 23�Figure 7 Change in Employment by Sector 2011-2015(Q3) ........................................................................................ 24�Figure 8 Price Position – 15th Street Development Phase II ........................................................................................ 56�

Map 1 Site Location ...................................................................................................................................................... 8�Map 2 2014 CrimeRisk, Subject Site and Surrounding Areas ..................................................................................... 13�Map 3 Location of Key Facilities and Services ............................................................................................................ 16�Map 4 15th Street Market Area .................................................................................................................................. 19�Map 5 Major Employers, Richmond County ................................................................................................................ 25�Map 6 Surveyed Rental Communities ........................................................................................................................ 36�Map 7 Subsidized Rental Communities ...................................................................................................................... 44�

15th Street Development Phase II | Executive Summary

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Walton Communities has retained Real Property Research Group, Inc. (RPRG) to conduct a comprehensive market feasibility analysis of 15th Street Development Phase II, a proposed general occupancy rental community in Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia. As proposed, 15th Street Development Phase II will be financed in part with Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC) allocated by the Georgia Department of Community Affairs (DCA) and will contain 90 units.

1.� Project Description

�� 15th Street Development Phase II will be on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community, which has been demolished. The site is on the east side of 15th Street, north of Swanee Quintet Boulevard and west of Lee Beard Way, just south of downtown Augusta. 15th Street Development Phase II will include 90 general occupancy rental units. The subject property will have 66 LIHTC units including 18 units targeting households earning up to 50 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI), nine of which will have PBRA, and 48 units at 60 percent AMI. The subject will also offer 24 market rate units without income or rent restrictions.

�� 15th Street Development Phase II will offer 27 one-bedroom units, 45 two-bedroom units, and 18 three-bedroom units.

�� A detailed summary of the subject property, including the rent and unit configuration, is shown in the table below.

�� In-unit features offered at the subject property will include a range, refrigerator, dishwasher, garbage disposal, microwave, ceiling fans, crown molding, and washer and dryer connections in each unit. With the exception of the luxury finishes at the much higher priced Canalside, these unit features are comparable to or superior to existing communities in the market area including the LIHTC communities. The subject property will be one of the few communities in the market area with microwaves and crown molding.

Unit Mix/Rents

Bed Bath Income Target Size (sqft) QuantityGross

RentUtility

Net

Rent

1 1 50% AMI/PBRA 760 3 $554 $138 $416*

1 1 50% AMI 760 9 $503 $138 $365

1 1 60% AMI 760 15 $608 $138 $470

2 2 50% AMI/PBRA 1,030 4 $665 $179 $486*

2 2 60% AMI 1,030 29 $744 $179 $565

2 2 Market 1,030 12 $879 $179 $700

3 2 50% AMI/PBRA 1,315 2 $768 $226 $542*

3 2 60% AMI 1,315 4 $871 $226 $645

3 2 Market 1,315 12 $1,026 $226 $800

Total 90

Subject rent for units with PBRA are at maximum allowable LIHTC levels*


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�� 15th Street Development Phase II’s community amenity package will include a clubhouse with leasing office, gathering areas, furnished library, laundry facilities, and fitness center. Outdoor amenities will include a playground and sitting areas. These amenities will be generally comparable to existing communities in the market area. The lack of a swimming pool is acceptable due to the small size of the proposed subject property and the lower proposed rents.

2.� Site Description / Evaluation

The subject site is a suitable location for mixed-income rental housing as it is compatible with surrounding land uses and has ample access to amenities, services, employers, and transportation arteries.

�� The subject site is in an established residential neighborhood southwest of downtown Augusta. Single-family detached homes and multi-family rental communities are common within two to three miles of the site.

�� The site is within one to two miles of many community amenities and services including retail, public transit, convenience stores, pharmacies, banks, restaurants, grocery stores, public schools, and medical facilities. The site will have easy access to a number of major thoroughfares, providing access to downtown Augusta and employers. Fort Gordon, the largest concentration of jobs in the county by far, is roughly eight to nine miles west of the site via U.S. Highway 1.

�� The subject site is suitable for the proposed development. No negative land uses were identified that would affect the proposed development’s viability in the marketplace.

�� The redevelopment of a former and recently demolished public housing community on the subject site will improve the condition of the immediate neighborhood.

3.� Market Area Definition

�� The 15th Street Market Area includes the census tracts generally south of downtown Augusta along 15th Street. Although a new housing community may attract residents from beyond this market area, the market area was restricted to the immediate area in an effort to be conservative. The neighborhoods included in the 15th Street Market Area are those areas considered most comparable with the area immediately surrounding the subject site. The market area does not extend further to the east given the large sizes and shapes of the census tracts in this portion of the county. The area immediately east of the market is sparsely developed with a large number of retention ponds and rail yards. The market area also does not extend further to the north or west as these portions of Augusta are newer and not directly comparable to the subject’s immediate neighborhood.

�� The boundaries of the 15th Street Market Area and their approximate distance from the subject site are the Savannah River to the north (2.0 miles), Old Savannah Road to the east (1.1 miles), Interstate 520 to the south (4.1 miles), and Jack Road / Sibley Road to the west (2.9 miles).

4.� Community Demographic Data

The 15th Street Market Area’s population and household base declined moderately in the previous decade but losses have slowed over the past six years and are projected to slow even further over the next two years. It should be noted that the market area is adding renter households while losing owner households.


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�� The 15th Street Market Area lost 568 people (0.9 percent) and 201 households (0.8 percent) per year between the 2000 and 2010 Census counts. Losses continued, although at a slower pace from 2010 to 2016, with 0.3 percent annual population loss and 0.2 percent annual losses among households.

�� From 2016 to 2018, Esri projects annual population and household decline in the 15th Street Market Area to slow even further to 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. Esri projects the market area will lose 98 people and 27 households per year over the next two years.

�� Roughly 52 percent of the market area’s population is over the age of 35 including 20.2 percent age 62 or older. Young Adults age 20 to 34 represent 22.3 percent of the 15th Street Market Area population.

�� Approximately 38 percent of all households in the 15th Street Market Area are single person households. One-third of households have at least two adults but no children; most of these households are not married – indicating roommate situations. Roughly 28 percent of households in the market area contain children.

�� The 15th Street Market Area’s 2010 renter percentage was 56.7 percent compared to 45.8 percent in Richmond County. The renter percentage in the market area is projected to increase to 59.9 percent in 2016 and 60.7 percent by 2018; the market area has added 578 renters and lost 935 owners from 2010 to 2016 and is projected to add 179 renters and lose 233 owner households over the next two years.

�� Renter householders are generally older in the 15th Street Market Area as renters age 45 or older comprise roughly half of the market area’s renter households; however, the market area does have a significant percentage (24.5 percent) of young adults age 25 to 34.

�� As of 2010, over two-thirds (67.3 percent) of all renter households in the 15th Street Market Area contained one or two persons including 41.5 percent with one person. Households with three or four persons accounted for 24.1 percent of renter households and large households (5+ persons) accounted for 8.6 percent of renter households.

�� Incomes in the market area are generally modest. The 2016 median income of households in the 15th Street Market Area is $25,586, $10,640 or 29.4 percent lower than the $36,226 median in Richmond County. RPRG estimates that the median income of renter households in the 15th Street Market Area is a modest $16,176; however, a significant percentage of renters earn moderate incomes. Roughly 65 percent of renters in the market area earn less than $25,000 and 23.8 percent earn between $25,000 and $49,999. Approximately 12 percent of renter households in the market area earn $50,000 or more.

5.� Economic Data

Richmond County’s economy is stable with a decreasing unemployment rate and recent job growth.

�� Richmond County’s unemployment has decreased in each of the past four years to 7.0 percent in 2015 from a recession-era peak of 11.3 percent in 2011. The county’s 2015 unemployment rate is the lowest since 2007.

�� The county has added jobs in three of the past four years including growth of 2,838 jobs in 2014, the largest expansion of jobs since 2000. Since 2010, the county has added roughly 6,700 jobs or 6.9 percent.

�� Government is the largest employment sector in Richmond County, accounting for 23.4 percent of all jobs in 2015 Q3 compared to 15.2 percent of total employment nationally; a major driving force of the county’s economy is the Fort Gordon army base.


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�� The subject site is proximate to major employers including Fort Gordon which is the county’s largest employer with over 25,000 employees.

�� Between the two large job expansions at Fort Gordon and expansions announced at a number of large companies in Richmond County since 2014, 6,535 total new jobs are expected in the county in the short-term. We identified several companies announcing layoffs since 2014 totaling 1,146 jobs lost.

6.� Project Specific Affordability and Demand Analysis:

�� 15th Street Development Phase II will contain 66 LIHTC units targeting households earning up to 50 percent or 60 percent of the AMI including nine units with PBRA targeting households earning up to 50 percent AMI; twenty-four units will be market rate and will not be income or rent restricted. Although nine units will have PBRA, the affordability analysis has been conducted without this additional subsidy and rents for the nine LIHTC units with PBRA are set at maximum 50 percent AMI LIHTC rents. Income limits will not apply for the units with PBRA; this will significantly increase income qualified renters, thus, lowering affordability capture rates.

�� Without taking into account PBRA, affordability capture rates by floor plan range from 0.2 percent to 2.4 percent. Affordability capture rates are 0.6 percent for the 50 percent AMI units, 1.5 percent for the 60 percent AMI units, 1.7 percent for all LIHTC units, and 0.9 percent for the market rate units. Overall, 5,255 renter households are income qualified for one or more of the proposed units resulting in an overall affordability capture rate of 1.7 percent.

�� All affordability capture rates are well within reasonable and achievable levels for a general occupancy community. Income limits will not apply for the nine units with PBRA; this will significantly increase income qualified renters, thus, lowering affordability capture rates.

�� Without taking into account PBRA on any units, 15th Street Development Phase II's DCA demand capture rate for the project is 3.1 percent. By floor plan, capture rates range from 1.0 percent to 5.5 percent.

�� As nine units at the subject property will have PBRA and DCA considers all units with PBRA leasable, the effective capture rate for these units is zero percent.

�� All of these demand capture rates are well within DCA’s mandated threshold of 30 percent and indicate sufficient demand to support the proposed development with and without PBRA.

7.� Competitive Rental Analysis

RPRG surveyed 18 multi-family rental communities in the 15th Street Market Area including three LIHTC communities. At the time of our survey, the rental market in the market area was performing very well including all LIHTC communities which were fully occupied with waiting lists.

�� Among the 15 stabilized communities (without PBRA) reporting occupancy, 33 of 1,821 units were vacant for an aggregate vacancy rate of just 1.8 percent. Providence Place is holding 50 units vacant as part of a major renovation and the property manager at Georgian Place did not know occupancy information. The LIHTC communities were all fully occupied with waiting lists on at least select units. Among all communities without PBRA, 12 reported a vacancy rate of less than two percent including nine that were fully occupied.

�� Among the 17 surveyed communities without PBRA, net rents, unit sizes, and rents per square foot were as follows:

�� One-bedroom effective rents averaged $519 per month. The average one bedroom unit size was 656 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.79.


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�� Two-bedroom effective rents averaged $614 per month. The average two bedroom unit size was 937 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.66.

�� Three-bedroom effective rents averaged $706 per month. The average three bedroom unit size was 1,155 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.61.

�� The “average market rent” was $684 for one bedroom units, $796 for two bedroom units, and $860 for three bedroom units. All proposed LIHTC units at the subject property have rent advantages of at least 25 percent and all proposed market rate rents are at least seven percent below market rent averages in the market area. The overall rent advantage for 15th Street Development Phase II is 26.7 percent.

�� Freedom’s Path, allocated in 2014, is an adaptive reuse of two buildings on the Charlie Norwood VA Medical Center campus. Freedom’s Path will target veterans and will have 78 total units, of which 66 will have Project Based Rental Assistance (PBRA). The 12 fifty percent one-bedroom units without PBRA will be the only units at Freedom’s Path that will be directly comparable to the subject.

8.� Absorption/Stabilization Estimate

�� Based on the product to be constructed and the factors discussed above, we expect 15th Street Development Phase II to lease the market rate and LHTC units without PBRA at an average of 12 units per month; we expect the nine LIHTC units with PBRA to lease as quickly as applications can be processed. As the units with PBRA and the LIHTC/market rate units without PBRA will lease concurrently, the subject property will reach a stabilized occupancy of at least 93 percent within just over six months. Without PBRA on the nine LIHTC units, we would expect the subject to reach a stabilized occupancy of 93 percent within seven months.

�� Given the strong rental market in the 15th Street Market Area and projected renter household growth over the next couple of years, we do not expect 15th Street Development Phase II to have negative impact on existing rental communities in the 15th Street Market Area including those with tax credits.

9.� Overall Conclusion / Recommendation

Based on renter household growth, low affordability and demand capture rates, and strong rental market conditions, sufficient demand exists to support the proposed units at 15th Street Development Phase II. As such, RPRG believes that the proposed 15th Street Development Phase II will be able to successfully reach and maintain a stabilized occupancy of at least 93 percent following its entrance into the rental market. The subject property will be competitively positioned with the existing market rate and LIHTC communities in the 15th Street Market Area and the units will be well received by the target market. We recommend proceeding with the project as planned.

We do not believe that the proposed development of 15th Street Development Phase II will have a negative impact on the existing LIHTC communities in the market area.


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10.�DCA Summary Table:

Income/Unit Size Income LimitsUnits

Proposed

Renter Income

Qualification %

Large Household

Size Adjustment

(3+ Persons)

Total

DemandSupply

Net

Demand

Capture

RateAbsorption

Average

Market

Rent

Market Rents

Band

Proposed

Rents

50% Units $17,683 - $31,950

One Bedroom Units $17,683 - $23,000 12 8.2% 681 12 669 1.8% 2-3 months $684 $504-$1,153 $416* / $365

Two Bedroom Units $23,001 - $26,500 4 5.0% 413 0 413 1.0% 1-2 months $684 $504-$1,153 $486*

Three Bedroom Units $26,501 - $31,950 2 6.9% 32.7% 186 0 186 1.1% 1-2 months $684 $504-$1,153 $542*

60% Units $20,846 - $38,340

One Bedroom Units $20,846 - $26,000 15 7.7% 637 0 637 2.4% 3-4 months $684 $504-$1,153 $470

Two Bedroom Units $26,001 - $31,000 29 6.3% 523 0 523 5.5% 6-7 months $796 $604-$1,420 $565

Three Bedroom Units $31,001 - $38,340 4 7.5% 32.7% 204 0 204 2.0% 1-2 months $860 $701-$759 $645

80% Units $30,137 - $51,120

Two Bedroom Units $30,137 - $38,000 12 8.4% 693 0 693 1.7% 4 months $796 $604-$1,420 $700

Three Bedroom Units $38,001 - $51,120 12 9.3% 32.7% 251 0 251 4.8% 4 months $860 $701-$759 $800

Project Total $17,683 - $51,120

50% Units $17,683 - $31,950 18 20.2% 1,665 12 1,653 1.1% 2-3 months

60% Units $20,846 - $38,340 48 21.6% 1,783 0 1,783 2.7% 6-7 months

LIHTC Units $17,683 - $38,340 66 26.5% 2,189 12 2,177 3.0% 6-7 months

80% Units $30,137 - $51,120 24 17.7% 1,459 0 1,459 1.6% 4 months

Total Units $17,683 - $51,120 90 35.5% 2,934 12 2,922 3.1% 6-7 months



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15th Street Development Phase II | Introduction

� Page 1

1.�INTRODUCTION

A.�Overview of Subject

The subject of this report is 15th Street Development Phase II, a proposed 90-unit general occupancy community in Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia. This will be the second phase of a larger redevelopment; the first phase will be an 80-unit senior-oriented rental community, which received an allocation for nine percent Low Income Housing Tax Credits in 2015 but has not started construction. The overall development will ultimately contain 240 general occupancy rental units and 150 senior oriented rental units, but this market study will focus on the 90 units in phase two. Most (66) units at the subject property will benefit from Low Income Housing Tax Credits and target renter households earning at or below 50 percent and 60 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI), adjusted for household size. Nine LIHTC units will have Project Based Rental Assistance (PBRA) through Public Housing. Twenty-four units will be market rate without rent or income restrictions. The master planned 15th Street Development will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community, which has been demolished.

B.� Purpose of Report

The purpose of this market study is to perform a market feasibility analysis through an examination of the economic context, a demographic analysis of the defined market area, a competitive housing analysis, a derivation of demand, and an affordability analysis.

C.� Format of Report

The report format is comprehensive and conforms to DCA’s 2016 Market Study Manual. The market study also considered the National Council of Housing Market Analysts’ (NCHMA) recommended Model Content Standards and Market Study Index.

D.�Client, Intended User, and Intended Use

The Client is Walton Communities. Along with the Client, the Intended Users are DCA, potential lenders, and investors.

E.� Applicable Requirements

This market study is intended to conform to the requirements of the following:

�� DCA’s 2016 Market Study Manual.

�� The National Council of Housing Market Analyst’s (NCHMA) Model Content Standards and Market Study Index.

F.� Scope of Work

To determine the appropriate scope of work for the assignment, we considered the intended use of the market study, the needs of the user, the complexity of the property, and other pertinent factors. Our concluded scope of work is described below:

�� Please refer to Appendix 5 and 6 for a detailed list of DCA and NCHMA requirements as well as the corresponding pages of requirements within the report.

�� Brett Welborn (Analyst) conducted a site visit on May 3, 2016.

15th Street Development Phase II | Introduction

� Page 2

�� RPRG conducted a market study for the first phase of the 15th Street Development, dated April 17, 2015, to be included in an application to the Georgia DCA for Low Income Housing Tax Credits.

�� Primary information gathered through field and phone interviews was used throughout the various sections of this report. The interviewees included rental community property managers, staff with the Augusta-Richmond County Planning and Development Department, Sevi Robinson with the Augusta Housing Authority, and Walter Sprouse with the Augusta Economic Development Authority.

�� All pertinent information obtained was incorporated in the appropriate section(s) of this report.

G.�Report Limitations

The conclusions reached in a market assessment are inherently subjective and should not be relied upon as a determinative predictor of results that will actually occur in the marketplace. There can be no assurance that the estimates made or assumptions employed in preparing this report will in fact be realized or that other methods or assumptions might not be appropriate. The conclusions expressed in this report are as of the date of this report, and an analysis conducted as of another date may require different conclusions. The actual results achieved will depend on a variety of factors, including the performance of management, the impact of changes in general and local economic conditions, and the absence of material changes in the regulatory or competitive environment. Reference is made to the statement of Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions contained in Appendix I of this report.

15th Street Development Phase II | Project Description

� Page 3

2.�PROJECT DESCRIPTION

A.�Project Overview

15th Street Development Phase II will be on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community, which has been demolished. The site is on the east side of 15th Street, north of Swanee Quintet Boulevard and west of Lee Beard Way, just south of downtown Augusta. 15th Street Development Phase II will include 90 general occupancy rental units. The subject property will have 66 LIHTC units including 18 units targeting households earning up to 50 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI), nine of which will have PBRA, and 48 units at 60 percent AMI. The subject will also offer 24 market rate units without income or rent restrictions.

B.� Project Type and Target Market

15th Street Development Phase II's LIHTC (nine with PBRA) and market rate units will target very low to moderate income renter households. Given the proposed unit mix of one, two, and three bedroom floor plans, the community will attract a range of households including singles, roommates, couples, and families.

C.� Building Types and Placement

15th Street Development Phase II will comprise two newly constructed, three-story, garden-style residential buildings. Construction characteristics will include wood frame with brick and Hardiplank siding exteriors. An entrance to the subject property will be on 15th Street with the community building near the entrance. 15th Street Development Phase II will be on the northern portion of the overall master-planned community (Figure 1).

The overall redevelopment of the Cherry Tree site will include general occupancy residential buildings to the north and east of two senior-oriented residential buildings, located along Swanee Quintet Boulevard to the south. Parking will be adjacent to each residential building. Access to the residential buildings, community building, and adjacent parking lots will be provided by community access roads which lead to 15th Street.


� Page 4

Figure 1 15th Street Development Master Plan

D.�Detailed Project Description

1.� Project Description

�� 15th Street Development Phase II will offer 27 one-bedroom units, 45 two-bedroom units,

and 18 three-bedroom units.

�� Proposed unit sizes are 760 square feet for one-bedroom units, 1,030 square feet for two-

bedroom units, and 1,315 square feet for three-bedroom units (Table 1).

�� One bedroom units will have one bathroom; two and three bedroom units will have two

bathrooms.

�� All rents will include the cost of trash removal. Tenants will bear the cost of all other utilities.

All appliances and the heating/cooling for each unit will be electric.

The following required unit features are planned:

Source: Walton Communities


� Page 5

�� HVAC systems.

�� Energy star refrigerators.

�� Energy star dishwashers.

�� Stoves.

�� Microwave ovens.

�� Powder-based stovetop fire suppression canisters installed above the range cook top, or

electronically controlled solid cover plates over stove too burners.

The following additional unit features are planned:

�� Garbage disposal.

�� Central heating and air-conditioning.

�� Ceiling fans.

�� Window blinds.

�� Crown molding.

�� Washer and dryer connections.

The following required community amenities are planned:

�� Community room.

�� Covered porch.

�� On-site laundry.

�� Furnished exercise / fitness center.

�� Furnished library.

The following additional community amenities are planned:

�� Leasing office.

�� Playground and outdoor sitting areas.

2.� Other Proposed Uses

None.

3.� Proposed Timing of Development

15th Street Development Phase II is expected to begin construction in 2017 and will have first move-ins in 2018. Construction is scheduled to be completed in 2018. For the purposes of this report, the subject property’s anticipated placed-in-service year is 2018.


� Page 6

Table 1 15th Street Development Phase II Detailed Project Summary

Unit Mix/Rents

Bed Bath Income Target Size (sqft) QuantityGross

RentUtility

Net

Rent

1 1 50% AMI/PBRA 760 3 $554 $138 $416*

1 1 50% AMI 760 9 $503 $138 $365

1 1 60% AMI 760 15 $608 $138 $470

2 2 50% AMI/PBRA 1,030 4 $665 $179 $486*

2 2 60% AMI 1,030 29 $744 $179 $565

2 2 Market 1,030 12 $879 $179 $700

3 2 50% AMI/PBRA 1,315 2 $768 $226 $542*

3 2 60% AMI 1,315 4 $871 $226 $645

3 2 Market 1,315 12 $1,026 $226 $800

Total 90


15th Street Development Phase II1550 15th Street

Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia

2017

2018

2018

Surface

None

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Tenant

Owner

Tenant

Elec

Tenant

Tenant

Source: Walton Communities

Project Information Additional Information

Number of Residential Buildings Two Construction Start Date

Building Type Garden Date of First Move-In

Number of Stories Three Construction Finish Date

Construction Type New Const. Parking Type

Design Characteristics (exterior) Brick and HardiPlank Parking Cost

Community

Amenities

Community building with leasing

offices, gathering areas, furnished

library, laundry facility, and fitness

center. Outdoor amenities will include

a playground and sitting areas.

Kitchen Amenities

Dishwasher

Disposal

Microwave

Range

Refrigerator

Unit Features

Kitchens with stove, refrigerator with

ice maker, garbage disposal,

microwave, pantry, and serving bar.

Flooring wil l include vinyl plank

flooring and/or carpet in l iving areas.

Additional features include

washer/dryer connections, walk-in

closets, crown molding, and ceil ing

fans.

Utilities Included

Water/Sewer

Trash

Heat

Heat Source

Hot/Water

Electricity

Other:

15th Street Development Phase II | Site and Neighborhood Analysis

� Page 7

3.�SITE AND NEIGHBORHOOD ANALYSIS

A.�Site Analysis

1.� Site Location

The subject site is the location of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community, which has been demolished. The site is on the east side of 15th Street, north of Swanee Quintet Boulevard and west of Lee Beard Way, just south of downtown Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia (Map 1, Figure 2). The site is located between Wrightsboro Road and Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard, both area thoroughfares are within one-quarter mile of the site.

2.� Existing Uses

The site is a grassy field with scattered trees. The entire site is fenced and contains some large piles of bricks from the former public housing community (Figure 3).

3.� Size, Shape, and Topography

The overall development parcel is rectangular, contains roughly 25 total acres, and is flat.

4.� General Description of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site

The site for 15th Street Development Phase II is in an established neighborhood south of downtown Augusta. The neighborhood is primarily residential in nature with commercial/industrial uses along 15th Street and Wrightsboro Road in close proximity to the subject site. Residential uses are generally older single-family detached homes in poor to moderate condition; a number of vacant and boarded up single-family homes are in close proximity to the site as well. A senior LIHTC rental community (Linden Square) is within one-quarter mile of the site to the north on Lee Beard Way. Non-residential uses adjacent to the site include industrial uses west of the site; a large industrial building is vacant just southwest of the subject site on 15th Street. Josey High School and the shuttered Collins Elementary School are both within one-half mile of the subject site. Several churches are within one-half mile of the site including Beulah Grove Baptist Church, just north of the site.

5.� Specific Identification of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site

The land uses directly bordering the overall development parcel are as follows (Figure 4):

�� North: Single-family detached homes and Beulah Grove Baptist Church.

�� East: Single-family detached homes.

�� South: Single-family detached homes, Nearby Grocery (a small grocery store), and St. Sinai Baptist

Church.

�� West: 15th Street and industrial buildings.


� Page 8

Map 1 Site Location


� Page 9

Figure 2 Satellite Image of Subject Site

Figure 3 Views of Subject Site

�Northern portion of the site facing east from Bleakley

Street.

�15th Street facing south (site entrance on the left).


� Page 10

�Site facing east from entrance on 15th Street.

�Site facing north from Swanee Quintet Boulevard.

�Site facing west from Lee Beard Way.

�Lee Beard Way facing south (site on the right).

Figure 4 Views of Surrounding Land Uses

�Single-family detached home to the north.

�St. Sinai Baptist Church to the south.


� Page 11

�Single-family detached home to the south.

�Beulah Grove Baptist Church to the north.

�Single-family detached home to the east.

�Industrial buildings to the west (Gexpro).


� Page 12

B.�Neighborhood Analysis

1.� General Description of Neighborhood

The subject site is in an established portion of Augusta surrounded by a mixture of residential and commercial/industrial uses. Residential uses are primarily modest single-family detached homes, all of which are of an older vintage; multi-family rental communities are common within a few miles of the site. Existing residential land uses are in varying conditions (well-maintained to some with signs of deferred maintenance) and vacant single-family detached homes and shuttered small businesses are scattered throughout the immediate neighborhood. Industrial/office buildings are common along 15th Street in close proximity to the site and schools and churches are common within two to three miles of the subject site.

The site is just south of Augusta’s Medical District, which is home to the Charlie Norwood VA Hospital, University Hospital, Augusta University, and Paine College. Downtown Augusta is roughly three miles northeast of the site including numerous businesses, restaurants, and community services.

2.� Neighborhood Planning Activities

New development in the immediate area surrounding the site has been limited, given its established nature and lack of undeveloped land; the area is largely built out. Augusta University is developing dormitories for over 700 students within one-half mile of the site. The dorms will be on the east side of 15th Street, north of the site, near the Dental College of Georgia campus and will open in Fall 2016. The Laney Walker/Bethlehem revitalization project is active in and around the subject property’s neighborhood. This project began in 2008 and plans include building new homes and renovating existing homes. New and renovated housing has been completed in Heritage Pine (the first development), Holley Street Commons, and Twiggs Circle. The next area of development, The Foundry Place, is expected to break ground in mid-2016. The redevelopment of the subject property will be one of the larger redevelopments in the immediate neighborhood in the past decade as nearly all new development activity in Augusta has been to the west of downtown near Interstate 520. The demolition of older dilapidated housing and replacement with a new multi-family rental community will benefit the entire neighborhood.

3.� Public Safety

CrimeRisk data is an analysis tool for crime provided by Applied Geographic Solutions (AGS). CrimeRisk is a block-group level index that measures the relative risk of crime compared to a national average. AGS analyzes known socio-economic indicators for local jurisdictions that report crime statistics to the FBI under the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) program. Based on detailed modeling of these relationships, CrimeRisk provides a detailed view of the risk of total crime as well as specific crime types at the block group level. In accordance with the reporting procedures used in the UCR reports, aggregate indexes have been prepared for personal and property crimes separately as well as a total index. However it must be recognized that these are un-weighted indexes, in that a murder is weighted no more heavily than purse snatching in this computation. The analysis provides a useful measure of the relative overall crime risk in an area but should be used in conjunction with other measures.

Map 2 displays the 2014 CrimeRisk Index for the census tracts in the general vicinity of the subject site. The relative risk of crime is displayed in gradations from yellow (least risk) to red (most risk). The subject site’s census tract and those in the immediately surrounding areas have a higher than average crime risk when compared to the national average, but generally comparable with the established portions of Augusta near downtown. The crime risk surrounding the site is generally consistent with that throughout much of the 15th Street Market Area. Based on the similarity with the surrounding


� Page 13

neighborhood, we do not expect crime or the perception of crime to negatively impact the subject property’s marketability.

Map 2 2014 CrimeRisk, Subject Site and Surrounding Areas

C.� Site Visibility and Accessibility

1.� Visibility

15th Street Development Phase II will be visible from 15th Street which has steady traffic and moderately high traffic volume during peak hours. The subject will also be visible from lesser travelled surface streets including Swanee Quintet Boulevard and Lee Beard Way. The redevelopment of a former public housing community will increase community awareness.


� Page 14

2.� Vehicular Access

15th Street Development Phase II will be accessible via an entrance on 15th Street. Traffic along 15th Street is steady but problems with accessibility are not expected as a traffic light with a turn lane for southbound traffic is at the proposed entrance to the subject property.

3.� Availability of Public Transit and Inter-Regional Transit

Augusta Public Transit provides comprehensive public transportation services throughout Augusta and Richmond County. Services include fixed route bus service with nine routes, access to ADA Paratransit service, and the Richmond Rural Transit Service. The subject site is on Route 6, which passes along the east side of the subject site on Lee Beard Way.

Augusta is on the south side of Interstate 20, which provides access to Atlanta (east) and Columbia, South Carolina (east). Interstate 520 serves as a perimeter highway/by-pass and forms a horseshoe on the south side of Interstate 20 with the western connection in Georgia and the eastern connection in South Carolina. Major highways serving Augusta and Richmond County include U.S. Highways 1, 25, 78, and 278. 15th Street (State Route 4) provides convenient access from the subject site to downtown Augusta and Interstate 520.

Augusta is served by the Augusta Regional Airport on Highway 56, roughly two miles south of Interstate 520. The airport serves approximately 500,000 people per year and is served by Delta and U.S. Airways. Direct flights are available to Atlanta and Charlotte. Augusta Regional Airport is within seven miles of the subject site.

4.� Accessibility Improvements under Construction and Planned

Roadway Improvements under Construction and Planned

RPRG reviewed information from local stakeholders to assess whether any capital improvement projects affecting road, transit, or pedestrian access to the subject site are currently underway or likely to commence within the next few years. Observations made during the site visit contributed to the process.

The most significant improvement for the subject site is the proposed widening of 15th Street from Milledgeville Road to Government Road (adjacent to the site entrance). The plans include widening 15th Street from two lanes to four lanes and adding a raised landscaped median. Additional plans include sidewalks, separate bike lanes, and cross walks.

Transit and Other Improvements under Construction and/or Planned

None identified.

5.� Environmental Concerns

No visible environmental or other site concerns were identified.

D.�Residential Support Network

1.� Key Facilities and Services near the Subject Site

The appeal of any given community is often based in part on its proximity to those facilities and services required on a daily basis. Key facilities and services and their distances from the subject site are listed in Table 2. The location of those facilities is plotted on Map 3.


� Page 15

Table 2 Key Facilities and Services

2.� Essential Services

Health Care

The closest major healthcare provider to the subject site is University Hospital, a 581-bed not-for-profit medical center, 0.9 mile northeast of the site. University Hospital offers a variety of medical treatment options and services including 24 hour emergency care, surgical services, outpatient care, Obstetrics/Gynecology, Pediatrics, laboratory services, diagnostic/imaging, Oncology, Cardiology, a sleep study lab, a stroke unit, Da Vinci Robotic Surgical System, and an intensive care unit. Trinity Hospital, a 231-bed facility with inpatient, outpatient, diagnostic, surgical, and emergency medical care is 1.7 miles west of the site on Wrightsboro Road. Several other major medical facilities are within the city of Augusta including Doctors Hospital and the VA Medical Center.

Outside of these major healthcare providers, a few smaller clinics are within two miles of the subject including Lamar Medical Center (0.4 mile north of the site), University Primary Care (1.2 miles north of the site), and Family Associates of Augusta (1.6 miles west of the site).

Education

Augusta is served by the Richmond County School System, which includes 56 schools and has an enrollment of approximately 32,000 students. School age children residing at the subject property

��

��

��

WT Johnson Community Center Community Center 1610 Hunter St. 0.4 mile

Super Express Convenience Store 1502 Central Ave. 0.4 mile

Lamar Medical Center Doctor/Medical 1448 Lee Beard Way 0.4 mile

APT Bus Stop Public Transit 1610 Hunter St. 0.4 mile

Capitol City Bank & Trust Bank 1235 15th St. 0.5 mile

Short Stop Convenience Store 1714 15th St. 0.5 mile

T.W. Josey High School Public School 1701 15th St. 0.5 mile

Medical Vil la Pharmacy Pharmacy 1520 Laney Walker Blvd. 0.7 mile

Family Dollar General Retail 1801 Central Ave. 0.9 mile

University Hospital Hospital 1350 Walton Way 0.9 mile

Wells Fargo Bank 1478 Walton Way. 1 mile

CVS Pharmacy 1520 Walton Way 1 mile

Wallace Branch Library Library 1237 Laney Walker Blvd. 1.1 miles

University Primary Care Doctor/Medical 820 St. Sabastian Way 1.2 miles

Augusta Fire Department Fire 1898 Martin Luther King Blvd. 1.2 miles

Kroger Grocery 501 15th St. 1.2 miles

Wilkinson Gardens Elementary School Public School 1925 Kratha Dr. 1.5 miles

Family Associates of Augusta Doctor/Medical 1417 Pendleton Rd. 1.6 miles

Trinity Hospital Hospital 2260 Wrightsboro Rd. 1.7 miles

Bi-Lo Grocery 1631 Gordon Hwy. 2 miles

US Post Office Post Office 525 8th St. 2.1 miles

Kmart General Retail 1647 Gordon Hwy. 2.4 miles

Richmond County Sheriff's Department Police 400 Walton Way 2.5 miles

Murphey Middle School Public School 2216 Bungalow Rd. 3.1 miles

Augusta Mall Mall 3450 Wrightsboro Rd. 5.6 miles

Source: Field and Internet Research, RPRG, Inc.


� Page 16

will attend Wilkinson Gardens Elementary School (1.5 miles), Murphey Middle School (3.1 miles), and Josey High School (0.5 mile).

Several institutions of higher education are in Augusta including Augusta University, just north of the site, with an enrollment of roughly 9,000 students. Other notable colleges and universities in Augusta are Augusta Technical College, Virginia College, Paine College, and Georgia Military College.

Map 3 Location of Key Facilities and Services

3.� Commercial Goods and Services

Convenience Goods

The term “convenience goods” refers to inexpensive, nondurable items that households purchase on a frequent basis and for which they generally do not comparison shop. Examples of convenience goods are groceries, fast food, health and beauty aids, household cleaning products, newspapers, and gasoline.


� Page 17

The subject site is within one mile of two convenience stores (Super Express and Short Stop), two banks (Capitol City Bank & Trust and Wells Fargo), and two pharmacies (Medical Villa Pharmacy and CVS), all located along 15th Street. Two full-service grocery stores are within two miles of the site including Kroger, 1.2 miles north of the site on 15th Street. A small neighborhood grocery store, Nearby Grocery, is adjacent to the site on Swanee Quintet Boulevard to the south.

Shoppers Goods

The term “shoppers goods” refers to larger ticket merchandise that households purchase on an infrequent basis and for which they usually comparison shop. The category is sometimes called “comparison goods.” Examples of shoppers’ goods are apparel and accessories, furniture and home furnishings, appliances, jewelry, and sporting goods.

A Family Dollar is within one mile of the site on Central Avenue and a Kmart is 2.4 miles south of the site on Gordon Highway. Augusta’s largest regional shopping area is centered on Augusta Mall at the Wrightsboro Road / Interstate 520 interchange, approximately six miles from the site. Augusta Mall is anchored by Sears, Macy’s, Dillard’s, and JCPenney and includes numerous smaller retailers and a food court. Substantial commercial development, including numerous big-box retailers, is also located throughout this area.

4.� Location of Low Income Housing

A list and map of existing low-income housing in the 15th Street Market Area are provided in the Existing Low Income Rental Housing section of this report, starting on page 43.

E.� Site Conclusion

The subject site is located in an established residential neighborhood, south of downtown Augusta, and will be the product of the redevelopment of a demolished public housing community. The site is convenient to community services, employment centers, and traffic arteries. The site is considered comparable to existing rental communities in the market area and is appropriate for the continued use of affordable rental housing.

15th Street Development Phase II | Market Area Definition

� Page 18

4.�MARKET AREA DEFINITION

A.� Introduction

The primary market area for the proposed 15th Street Development Phase II is defined as the geographic area from which future residents of the community would primarily be drawn and in which competitive rental housing alternatives are located. In defining the 15th Street Market Area, RPRG sought to accommodate the joint interests of conservatively estimating housing demand and reflecting the realities of the local rental housing marketplace.

B.�Delineation of Market Area

The 15th Street Market Area includes the census tracts generally south of downtown Augusta along 15th Street. Although a new housing community may attract residents from beyond this market area, the market area was restricted to the immediate area in an effort to be conservative. The neighborhoods included in the 15th Street Market Area are those areas considered most comparable with the area immediately surrounding the subject site. The market area does not extend further to the east given the large sizes and shapes of the census tracts in this portion of the county. The area immediately east of the market is sparsely developed with a large number of retention ponds and rail yards. The market area also does not extend further to the north or west as these portions of Augusta are newer and not directly comparable to the subject’s immediate neighborhood.

The boundaries of the 15th Street Market Area and their approximate distance from the subject site are:

North: Savannah River ................................................................................. (2.0 miles)

East: Old Savannah Road .............................................................................. (1.1 miles)

South: Interstate 520 ................................................................................... (4.1 miles)

West: Jack Road / Sibley Road ..................................................................... (2.9 miles)

This market area is depicted in Map 4 and the census tracts that comprise the market area are listed on the edge of the map. As appropriate for this analysis, the 15th Street Market Area is compared to Richmond County, which is considered as the secondary market area, although demand will be computed based only on the 15th Street Market Area.

15th Street Development Phase II | Market Area Definition

� Page 19

Map 4 15th Street Market Area

�

15th Street Development Phase II | Economic Content

� Page 20

5.�ECONOMIC CONTENT

A.� Introduction

This section of the report focuses primarily on economic trends and conditions in Richmond County, the jurisdiction in which 15th Street Development Phase II will be located. For purposes of comparison, economic trends in Georgia and the nation are also discussed.

B.� Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment

1.� Trends in County Labor Force and Resident Employment

Richmond County’s labor force remained relatively unchanged from 2004 to 2009 with a small net increase of 1,180 jobs or 1.3 percent. Following this period of little change, the labor force lost workers in five of six years including losses in each of the past four years. Since 2009, the county’s labor force has lost 7,450 workers or 8.2 percent (Table 3).

The number of employed workers in the county has remained relatively steady following a loss of nearly 7,500 employed workers from 2008 to 2010 during the recession. As discussed, the labor force has been decreasing while the employed portion of the labor force has remained steady; these conflicting trends reflect a number of unemployed persons leaving the workforce.

2.� Trends in County Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate has decreased in four consecutive years to 7.0 percent in 2015 from a recession-era high of 11.3 percent in 2011. The 2015 unemployment rate of 7.0 percent is higher than both state (5.9 percent) and national (5.4 percent) rates; Richmond County’s unemployment rate has consistently been higher than state and national rates since 2004.

C.� Commutation Patterns

According to 2010-2014 American Community Survey (ACS) data, residents of the 15th Street Market Area work in relatively close proximity to their place of residence. Roughly 80 percent of workers residing in the market area spent less than 25 minutes commuting to work and 12.8 percent spent 25 to 34 minutes commuting (Table 4). Less than seven percent of market area workers commuted 35 minutes or more.

Roughly 81 percent of all workers residing in the 15th Street Market Area worked in Richmond County and 10.8 percent worked in another Georgia county. Approximately eight percent of workers in the market area work in another state, most likely South Carolina which is in close proximity to Augusta and the market area.


� Page 21

Table 3 Labor Force and Unemployment Rates

Table 4 2010-2014 Commuting Patterns, 15th Street Market Area

Annual Unemployment Rates - Not Seasonally Adjusted

Annual

Unemployment 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labor Force 90,074 89,801 88,769 90,907 92,255 91,254 87,887 88,509 88,377 86,741 85,777 83,804

Employment 84,776 83,650 83,164 85,362 85,658 82,033 78,209 78,543 78,988 78,219 78,341 77,907

Unemployment 5,298 6,151 5,605 5,545 6,597 9,221 9,678 9,966 9,389 8,522 7,436 5,897

Unemployment Rate

Richmond County 5.9% 6.8% 6.3% 6.1% 7.2% 10.1% 11.0% 11.3% 10.6% 9.8% 8.7% 7.0%

Georgia 4.8% 5.3% 4.7% 4.5% 6.2% 9.9% 10.5% 10.2% 9.2% 8.2% 7.1% 5.9%

United States 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 8.8% 8.3% 7.4% 6.2% 5.4%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Richmond County

Georgia

United StatesUn

em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate

Travel Time to Work Place of Work

Workers 16 years+ # % Workers 16 years and over # %

Did not work at home:20,937 99.4% Worked in state of residence: 19,325 91.7%

Less than 5 minutes 438 2.1% Worked in county of residence 17,045 80.9%

5 to 9 minutes 2,406 11.4% Worked outside county of residence 2,280 10.8%

10 to 14 minutes 4,117 19.5% Worked outside state of residence 1,740 8.3%

15 to 19 minutes 6,288 29.9% Total 21,065 100%

20 to 24 minutes 3,580 17.0% Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014

25 to 29 minutes 855 4.1%

30 to 34 minutes 1,831 8.7%

35 to 39 minutes 170 0.8%

40 to 44 minutes 145 0.7%

45 to 59 minutes 598 2.8%

60 to 89 minutes 433 2.1%

90 or more minutes 76 0.4%

Worked at home 128 0.6%

Total 21,065

Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014

In County

80.9%Outside

County

10.8%

Outside

State

8.3%

2010-2014 Commuting Patterns

15th Street Market Area


� Page 22

D.�At-Place Employment

1.� Trends in Total At-Place Employment

Richmond County lost jobs in seven of ten years from 2000 to 2010 with a net loss of 9,374 jobs or 8.8 percent. This losing trend has reversed over the past four years with the net addition of 4,821 jobs from 2011 to 2014 including growth of 2,838 jobs in 2014, the county’s largest increase in jobs since at least 2000. The county has continued to add jobs through the first three quarters of 2015 with 1,867 net jobs (Figure 5). The 104,301 total jobs in the county through the first three quarters of 2015 is the highest total since 2005; the post-recession recovery has been sustained and strong.

As detailed in the line graph on the bottom half of Figure 5, Richmond County has largely underperformed the nation on a percentage basis over the past fourteen years; however, the county has generally matched the nation’s growth since 2009. The county’s rate of growth has exceeded the nation during the past two years.

Figure 5 At-Place Employment

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statisti cs , Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

10

6,9

81

10

4,6

93

10

3,4

06

10

4,0

86

10

4,3

92

10

5,3

57

103

,93

9

102

,24

2

10

1,0

82

98,6

01

97,6

13

98

,58

9

98

,24

9

99,5

96

102

,43

4

10

4,3

01

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q3

At

Pla

ce E

mp

loym

ent

Total At Place Employment

-2,288

-1,287

680306

965

-1,418 -1,697

-1,160

-2,481

-988

976

-340

1,347

2,838

1,867

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Q3

Change in At Place Employment

Annual Change in Richmond County At Place Employment

United States Annual Employment Growth Rate

Richmond County Annual Employment Growth Rate

An

nu

al C

han

ge in

At

Pla

ce

% A

nn

ual G

row

th


� Page 23

2.� At-Place Employment by Industry Sector

Government is the largest employment sector in Richmond County, accounting for 23.4 percent of total employment in the third quarter of 2015, a much higher percentage than the 15.2 percent of jobs nationally (Figure 6). The high percentage of government jobs is due in part to Fort Gordon, which is home to the United States Army Cyber Center of Excellence. A major aspect of the Cyber Center of Excellence is the training, education, and development of highly skilled signal, cyber, and electronic warfare professionals supporting operations at the strategic, operational, and tactical level.

The Education-Health, Trade-Transportation-Utilities, Professional-Business, and Leisure-Hospitality sectors each account for roughly 12 to 18 percent of Richmond County’s total jobs while all other sectors each account for less than seven percent of the county’s jobs. Outside of the Government sector, the county has a much higher percentage of jobs in the Education-Health sector. In contrast the county has a much lower percentage of jobs in the Trade-Transportation-Utilities and Financial Activities sectors.

Figure 6 Total Employment by Sector, 2015(Q3)

From 2011 to 2015 (Q3), six sectors added jobs in Richmond County including four of the top five employment sectors (the Trade-Transportation-Utilities, Professional-Business, and Leisure-Hospitality sectors each grew by more than 15 percent while the Education-Health sector grew by 4.1 percent). Gains in these sectors more than offset losses in the five sectors with declines in employment. The largest sector in the county, Government, lost 3.5 percent of its employment base (Figure 7) and the other four sectors losing jobs each accounted for less than seven percent of the county’s jobs.

Sector Jobs

Government 24,393

Federal 7,446

State 9,471

Local 7,476

Private Sector 79,791

Goods-Producing 11,434

Natural Resources-Mining 278

Construction 3,950

Manufacturing 7,205

Service Providing 68,357

Trade-Trans-Utilities 16,464

Information 1,969

Financial Activities 2,785

Professional-Business 13,744

Education-Health 18,367

Leisure-Hospitality 12,291

Other 2,737

Unclassified 118

Total Employment 104,301

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Stati s tics , Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

Employment by Industry Sector - 2015 Q3

��

��

��

��

!��

��

��"�

��

"��

��

��

15.2%

1.5%

4.6%

8.9%

19.1%

2.0%

5.6%

14.0%

15.1%

10.9%

3.1%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Government

Nat Resources-Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade-Trans-Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Professional-Business

Education Health

Leisure-Hospitality

Other

Total Employment by Sector 2015 Q3

United States

Richmond County


� Page 24

Figure 7 Change in Employment by Sector 2011-2015(Q3)

3.� Major Employers

The largest employer in Richmond County is the U.S. Army base Fort Gordon, which employs over 25,000 people – more than five times larger than the second largest employer (Augusta University with 4,656 employees). Seven of the top ten major employers are part of the Education-Health sector and 11 of the top 20 employers are manufacturers (Table 5). Richmond County’s major employers are generally located within six miles of the subject site (Map 5).

Fort Gordon is the home of the Cyber Center of Excellence. The Cyber Center of Excellence is the U.S. Army's proponent for Cyberspace Operations, Signal/Communications Networks and Information Services, and Electronic Warfare. The center is responsible for developing related doctrine, organizational, training, materiel, leadership/education, personnel, and facility solutions. A major aspect of the center’s mission is the training, education, and development of highly skilled signal, cyber, and electronic warfare professionals supporting operations at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Burea u of La bor Statis tics , Quarterly Cens us of Employment and Wages

#��!�

# ��

# ��

#��

��

��

# ��

��

��

!�"�

��

-0.9%

7.4%

16.0%

5.0%

6.5%

2.5%

5.2%

12.5%

10.1%

13.5%

-2.6%

-15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Government

Nat Resources-Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade-Trans-Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Professional-Business

Education Health

Leisure-Hospitality

Other

Employment Change by Sector, 2011-2015 Q3

United States

Richmond County


� Page 25

Table 5 Major Employers, Richmond County

Map 5 Major Employers, Richmond County

Rank Name Sector Employment

1 U.S. Army Signal Center & Fort Gordon Government 25,264

2 Augusta University Education 4,656

3 Richmond County School System Education 4,418

4 University Hospital Healthcare 3,200

5 Augusta University Hospitals Healthcare 3,054

6 Augusta-Richmond County Government 2,612

7 VA Medical Centers Healthcare 2,082

8 East Central Regional Hospital Healthcare 1,488

9 EZ GO Textron Manufacturing 1,277

10 Doctors Hospital Healthcare 1,210

11 Covidien Manufacturing 850

12 International Paper Manufacturing 820

13 Kellogg’s Manufacturing 535

14 FPL Food, LLC Manufacturing 500

15 Thermal Ceramics Manufacturing 444

16 Resolute Forest Products Manufacturing 374

17 Boral Brick Manufacturing 363

18 PCS Nitrogen Manufacturing 350

19 DSM Chemical Manufacturing 350

20 Augusta Coca-Cola Manufacturing 315

Source: Augusta Economic Development


� Page 26

4.� Recent Economic Expansions and Contractions

The most significant economic expansions in the Augusta area are the National Security Agency and the Army’s Cyber Center for Excellence, both headquartered at Fort Gordon (Table 6). The National Security Agency added approximately 1,000 jobs in 2015 to the already 3,000 employed at Fort Gordon. Plans to create a centralized Army Cyber Command headquarters (Cyber Center for Excellence) at Fort Gordon were announced in early 2014 and are expected to create approximately 3,700 jobs by 2019. According to Walter Sprouse with the Augusta Economic Development Authority, Fort Gordon is one of the few military bases in the country that is expanding employment and the creation of the Cyber Center for Excellence is projected to create an additional 7,500 contractor jobs in Richmond County over the next several years. In addition to these two expansions at Fort Gordon, RPRG identified eight large business expansions in Augusta, ranging from 35 new jobs to 450 new jobs. Overall, roughly 6,500 new jobs have been announced since 2014 among the ten employment expansions identified in the county.

Limited layoffs were identified in the Augusta area. Four companies have announced layoffs since 2014 totaling 1,146 jobs lost.

Table 6 Major Employment Expansions and Layoffs, Richmond County

5.� Conclusions on Local Economics

Richmond County’s economy is stable and has shown signs of recent growth. The county has experienced net job growth and decreased unemployment rates over the past four years. Local economics are not expected to negatively impact the ability of the subject property to lease its units given the recent improvements. The expansions of Fort Gordon and a number of large businesses in the county are expected to maintain economic growth in the region over the next several years.

Business Expansions

Year Company Name New Jobs

2016 Textron 400

2016 Sitel 300

2016 ICT Industries 100

2016 EdenCrete Industries 250

2015 Sitel 200

2015 NSA 1,000

2015 ADP 450

2015 Solvay 35

2014 Elanco 100

2014 Cyber Center for Excellence - Fort Gordon 3,700

Total 6,535

Source: Augusta Economic Development Authority and Media Reports

Business Closures / Layoffs

Year Company Name Lost Jobs

2015 Quad/Graphics 250

2015 Sitel 675

2014 Georgia rRegents Medical Center 87

2014 The Nutrasweet Company 134

Total 1,146

Source: GA Department of Labor and Media Reports

15th Street Development Phase II | Demographic Analysis

� Page 27

6.�DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

A.� Introduction and Methodology

RPRG analyzed recent trends in population and households in the 15th Street Market Area and Richmond County using U.S. Census data and data from Esri, a national data vendor that prepares small area estimates and projections of population and households.

B.� Trends in Population and Households

1.� Recent Past Trends

Between 2000 and 2010 Census counts, the population of the 15th Street Market Area decreased by 8.9 percent, from 64,057 to 58,377 people, an annual loss of 568 people or 0.9 percent (Table 7). During the same period, the number of households in the 15th Street Market Area decreased from 26,769 to 24,760 households for an annual loss of 201 households (0.8 percent).

By comparison, the population of Richmond County expanded by 0.4 percent from 2000 to 2010 and the number of households increased by 4.1 percent overall (0.4 percent annually).

2.� Projected Trends

Based on Esri estimates and projections, losses in the 15th Street Market Area have slowed over the past six years as the market area lost 201 people (0.3 percent) and 60 households (0.2 percent) per year from 2010 to 2016. The county added an average of 170 people (0.1 percent) and 205 households (0.3 percent) per year over the same six year period.

The market area is projected to continue trimming losses over the next two years; the market area is projected to lose 98 people (0.2 percent) and 27 households (0.1 percent) per year over the next two years. Richmond County is expected to continue growing modestly including annual household growth of 174 households (0.2 percent) over the next two years.

3.� Building Permit Trends

RPRG examines building permit trends to help determine if the housing supply is meeting demand, as measured by new households. From 2000 to 2009, an average of 660 new housing units were authorized in Richmond County compared to annual growth of 300 households between the 2000 and 2010 census counts (Table 8). The disparity in household growth relative to units permitted is minimal suggesting supply and demand for housing is relatively balanced.

Building permit activity slowed significantly after 2006 (815 units permitted) with an average of 381 units permitted from 2007 to 2013. An average of 726 units has been permitted in the past two years, representing a significant increase that is greater than the average annual permit activity of the past decade. By structure type, 82 percent of all residential permits issued in Richmond County were for single-family detached homes. Multi-family structures (5+ units) accounted for 18 percent of units permitted while buildings with 2-4 units contain less than one percent of permitted units.


� Page 28

Table 7 Population and Household Projections

Table 8 Building Permits by Structure Type, Richmond County

Richmond County 15th Street Market Area

Total Change Annual Change Total Change Annual Change

Population Count # % # % Count # % # %

2000 199,775 64,057

2010 200,549 774 0.4% 77 0.0% 58,377 -5,680 -8.9% -568 -0.9%

2016 201,572 1,023 0.5% 170 0.1% 57,170 -1,207 -2.1% -201 -0.3%

2018 202,085 514 0.3% 257 0.1% 56,973 -197 -0.3% -98 -0.2%

Total Change Annual Change Total Change Annual Change

Households Count # % # % Count # % # %

2000 73,920 26,769

2010 76,924 3,004 4.1% 300 0.4% 24,760 -2,009 -7.5% -201 -0.8%

2016 78,155 1,231 1.6% 205 0.3% 24,403 -357 -1.4% -60 -0.2%

2018 78,502 347 0.4% 174 0.2% 24,349 -54 -0.2% -27 -0.1%

Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; Esri; and Real Property Research Group, Inc.

0.4%0.3% 0.2%

-0.8%

-0.2%-0.1%

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

2000-2010 2010-2016 2016-2018

Richmond County


Annual Percentage Change in Households, 2000 to 2018

Richmond County

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152000-

2015

Annual

Average

Single Family 483 548 565 664 829 604 815 448 194 391 371 267 367 445 354 423 7,768 486

Two Family 0 0 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 4 2 22 1

3 - 4 Family 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 3 0 0 32 2

5+ Family 42 196 323 224 0 89 0 0 56 98 7 0 0 0 372 296 1,703 106

Total 525 744 914 888 831 693 815 448 250 489 378 267 378 454 730 721 9,525 595

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, C-40 Building Permit Reports.

525

744

914 888831

693

815

448

250

489

378

267

378454

730 721

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Un

its

Pe

rmit

ted

Total Housing Units Permitted

2000 - 2015


� Page 29

C.� Demographic Characteristics

1.� Age Distribution and Household Type

The market area’s population is older than Richmond County’s with median ages of 36 and 33, respectively, due to a higher percentage of Seniors age 62 or older and a lower percentage of all other major age brackets. Adults age 35-61 comprise the largest percentage of the population in both areas at roughly 32 percent and Children/Youth under the age of 20 account for 25.9 percent of people in the market area and 26.8 percent in the county (Table 9). Young Adults (20-34 years) are less common in the market area compared to Richmond County (22.3 percent versus 24.1 percent) and Seniors age 62 or older are more common (20.2 percent versus 17.1 percent).

Table 9 2016 Age Distribution

Single person households are the most common household type in the market area at 38.2 percent of all households compared to Richmond County’s 30.4 percent. Only 28.4 percent of households in the market area had children present, well below the 33.6 percent in Richmond County. Households with at least two adults but no children account for one-third of households in the 15th Street Market Area and 36 percent in Richmond County (Table 10); most households with two or more people (both with and without children) in the market area are non-married households, which includes roommate situations.

# % # %

Children/Youth 53,963 26.8% 14,821 25.9%

Under 5 years 14,158 7.0% 4,221 7.4%

5-9 years 13,634 6.8% 3,897 6.8%

10-14 years 12,531 6.2% 3,394 5.9%

15-19 years 13,639 6.8% 3,309 5.8%

Young Adults 48,532 24.1% 12,739 22.3%

20-24 years 16,508 8.2% 4,228 7.4%

25-34 years 32,024 15.9% 8,511 14.9%

Adults 64,623 32.1% 18,071 31.6%

35-44 years 23,738 11.8% 6,115 10.7%

45-54 years 23,531 11.7% 6,762 11.8%

55-61 years 17,354 8.6% 5,195 9.1%

Seniors 34,454 17.1% 11,538 20.2%

62-64 years 7,437 3.7% 2,226 3.9%

65-74 years 16,164 8.0% 5,207 9.1%

75-84 years 7,882 3.9% 2,851 5.0%

85 and older 2,971 1.5% 1,253 2.2%

TOTAL 201,572 100% 57,170 100%

Median Age

Source: Esri; RPRG, Inc.

33 36

Richmond

County

15th Street

Market Area

26.8%

24.1%

32.1%

17.1%

25.9%

22.3%

31.6%

20.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Child/Youth

Young

Adults

Adults

Seniors

% Pop

Typ

e

2016 Age Distribution15th Street Market Area

Richmond County


� Page 30

Table 10 2010 Households by Household Type

2.� Renter Household Characteristics

The market area has a higher propensity to rent compared to Richmond County as more than half (56.7 percent) of 15th Street Market Area households rented in 2010 compared to 45.8 percent in the county. Between the 2000 and 2010 census counts, the market area added 87 renter households and lost 2,096 owner households resulting in a significantly higher renter percentage. Due to a continued migration away from homeownership, the market area’s renter percentage is estimated to have increased to 59.9 percent in 2016 and is projected to increase further to 60.7 percent in 2018 (Table 11). Although the market area is losing households overall, renter households are steadily increasing; Esri estimates that the market area added 578 renter households and lost 935 owner households from 2010 to 2016 and is projected to add 179 renter households and lose 233 owners over the next two years.

Table 11 Households by Tenure

Renters are generally older in the 15th Street Market Area when compared to Richmond County; adults and seniors age 45 or older comprise roughly half (49.7 percent) of market area renters and 39.9 percent of Richmond County renters (Table 12). Roughly one-third or market area renters are under the age of 35 and 16.2 percent are age 35 to 44.

# % # %

Married w/Children 11,566 15.0% 1,939 8.5%

Other w/ Children 14,291 18.6% 4,585 20.0%

Households w/ Children 25,857 33.6% 6,524 28.4%

Married w/o Children 15,781 20.5% 3,440 15.0%

Other Family w/o Chi ldren 7,248 9.4% 2,558 11.1%

Non-Family w/o Children 4,638 6.0% 1,651 7.2%

Households w/o Children 27,667 36.0% 7,649 33.3%

Singles Living Alone 23,400 30.4% 8,770 38.2%

Singles 23,400 30.4% 8,770 38.2%

Total 76,924 100% 22,943 100%

Source: 2010 Census; RPRG, Inc.

Households by Household

Type

Richmond County15th Street

Market Area

30.4%

36.0%

33.6%

38.2%

33.3%

28.4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Singles

HH w/o

Children

HH w/

Children

% Households

Ho

use

ho

ld T

ype

2010 Households by Household Type15th Street Market Area Richmond County

Richmond County2000 2010

Change

2000-2010 2016 2018

Change 2016-

2018

Housing Units # % # % # # % # % #

Owner Occupied 42,840 58.0% 41,682 54.2% -1,158 39,953 51.1% 39,485 50.3% -468

Renter Occupied 31,080 42.0% 35,242 45.8% 4,162 38,202 48.9% 39,017 49.7% 815

Total Occupied 73,920 100% 76,924 100% 3,004 78,155 100% 78,502 100% 347

Total Vacant 8,392 9,407 9,557 9,600

TOTAL UNITS 82,312 86,331 87,712 88,102

15th Street Market

Area 2000 2010

Change

2000-2010 2016 2018

Change 2016-

2018

Housing Units # % # % # # % # % #

Owner Occupied 12,823 47.9% 10,727 43.3% -2,096 9,792 40.1% 9,559 39.3% -233

Renter Occupied 13,946 52.1% 14,033 56.7% 87 14,611 59.9% 14,790 60.7% 179

Total Occupied 26,769 100% 24,760 100% -2,009 24,403 100% 24,349 100% -54

Total Vacant 3,907 4,113 4,054 4,045

TOTAL UNITS 30,676 28,873 28,457 28,394

Source: U.S. Census of Population and Housing, 2000, 2010; Esri, RPRG, Inc.


� Page 31

Table 12 Renter Households by Age of Householder

As of 2010, roughly two-thirds (67.3 percent) of all renter households in the 15th Street Market Area contained one or two people including 41.5 percent with one person. Households with three or four people accounted for 24.1 percent of renter households in the market area and 8.6 percent of renter households had five or more people (Table 13). The market area’s renter households are generally smaller when compared to Richmond County including a much higher percentage of one person renter households.

Table 13 2010 Renter Households by Household Size

3.� Income Characteristics

Based on Esri estimates, both the 15th Street Market Area and Richmond County generally have modest incomes, especially the market area; however, a significant proportion of households in both areas earn moderate incomes. The market area’s 2016 median income of $25,586 is $10,640 or 29.4 percent below the county’s median income of $36,226 (Table 14). Nearly half (49.2 percent) of market area households earn less than $25,000 including 34.3 percent earning less than $15,000. Roughly 27 percent of market area households earn $25,000 to $49,999 and 23.5 percent earn $50,000 or more. Overall, the market area has a much higher percentage of households earning less than $35,000 when compared to the county.

Renter

Households

Richmond

County

15th Street

Market Area

Age of HHldr # % # %

15-24 years 4,151 10.9% 1,397 9.6% 2

25-34 years 11,679 30.6% 3,585 24.5% 2

35-44 years 7,147 18.7% 2,367 16.2% 2

45-54 years 5,598 14.7% 2,394 16.4% 1

55-64 years 5,043 13.2% 2,383 16.3%

65-74 years 2,757 7.2% 1,463 10.0% 1

75+ years 1,827 4.8% 1,023 7.0% 1

Total 38,202 100% 14,611 100%

Source: Esri, Real Property Research Group, Inc.

10.9%

30.6%

18.7%

14.7%

13.2%

7.2%

4.8%

9.6%

24.5%

16.2%

16.4%

16.3%

10.0%

7.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

15-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-74

75+

% Hous eholds

Ag

e o

f H

ou

seh

old

er

2016 Renter Households by Age of

Householder15th Street

Market Area

Richmond

County

Richmond

County

15th Street

Market Area

# % # %

1-person hhld 12,485 35.4% 5,594 41.5%

2-person hhld 9,062 25.7% 3,478 25.8%

3-person hhld 5,837 16.6% 2,004 14.9%

4-person hhld 4,065 11.5% 1,245 9.2%

5+-person hhld 3,793 10.8% 1,161 8.6%

TOTAL 35,242 100% 13,482 100%

Source: 2010 Census

Renter

Occupied

35.4%

25.7%

16.6%

11.5%

10.8%

41.5%

25.8%

14.9%

9.2%

8.6%

0% 20% 40% 60%

1-person

2-person

3-person

4-person

5+-person

% hhlds

Ho

us

eh

old

Siz

e

2010 Persons per Household Renter

Occupied Units 15th Street

Market Area

Richmond

County


� Page 32

Table 14 2016 Household Income

The market area has a large proportion of low income renter households; however, a significant percentage of market area renters earn moderate incomes ($25,000 to $74,999). Based on the ACS data income projections, the breakdown of tenure, and household estimates, RPRG estimates that the median income of market area households by tenure are $16,176 for renters and $42,585 for owner households (Table 15). Nearly two-thirds (64.8 percent) of renters earn less than $25,000 including 48 percent earning less than $15,000. Roughly 24 percent of renters earn $25,000 to $49,999 and 7.8 percent earn $50,000 to $74,999.

Table 15 2016 Household Income by Tenure

# % # %

less than $15,000 17,203 22.0% 8,380 34.3% 2

$15,000 $24,999 10,238 13.1% 3,623 14.8% 3

$25,000 $34,999 10,692 13.7% 3,389 13.9% 4

$35,000 $49,999 11,550 14.8% 3,275 13.4% 5

$50,000 $74,999 12,458 15.9% 2,822 11.6% 6

$75,000 $99,999 7,956 10.2% 1,432 5.9% 7

$100,000 $149,999 5,507 7.0% 993 4.1% 8

$150,000 Over 2,550 3.3% 490 2.0% 9

Total 78,155 100% 24,403 100% 10

Median Income $36,226 $25,586

Source: Esri; Real Property Research Group, Inc.

15th Street

Market Area

Richmond

CountyEstimated 2016

Household Income

22.0%

13.1%

13.7%

14.8%

15.9%

10.2%

7.0%

3.3%

34.3%

14.8%

13.9%

13.4%

11.6%

5.9%

4.1%

2.0%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

<$15K

$15-$24K

$25-$34K

$35-$49K

$50-$74K

$75-$99K

$100-$149K

$150+k

% Households

Ho

use

ho

ld I

nco

me

2016 Household Income


Richmond County

# % # %

less than $15,000 7,017 48.0% 1,363 13.9% 2

$15,000 $24,999 2,449 16.8% 1,174 12.0% 3

$25,000 $34,999 1,881 12.9% 1,507 15.4% 4

$35,000 $49,999 1,589 10.9% 1,686 17.2% 5

$50,000 $74,999 1,140 7.8% 1,682 17.2% 6

$75,000 $99,999 392 2.7% 1,040 10.6% 7

$100,000 $149,999 119 0.8% 874 8.9% 8

$150,000 over 23 0.2% 467 4.8% 9

Total 14,611 100% 9,792 100% 10

Median Income

Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014 Estimates, RPRG, Inc.

15th Street Market

Area

$16,176 $42,585

Renter

Households

Owner

Households

7,017

2,449

1,881

1,589

1,140

392

119

23

1,363

1,174

1,507

1,686

1,682

1,040

874

467

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

<$15K

$15-$24.9K

$25-$34.9K

$35-$49.9K

$50-$74.9K

$75-$99.9K

$100-$150K

$150k+

# of Households

Ho

us

eh

old

In

com

e

2016 Household Income by Tenure

Owner Households

Renter Households

15th Street Development Phase II | Competitive Housing Analysis

� Page 33

7.�COMPETITIVE HOUSING ANALYSIS

A.� Introduction and Sources of Information

This section presents data and analyses pertaining to the supply of rental housing in the 15th Street Market Area. We pursued several avenues of research in an attempt to identify multifamily rental projects that are in the planning stages or under construction in the 15th Street Market Area. We contacted planners with the City of Augusta which referred us to their online planning database. In addition, we reviewed the list of recent LIHTC awards from DCA. The rental survey was conducted in April/May 2016.

B.�Overview of Market Area Housing Stock

The renter occupied housing stock in both areas includes a range of housing types with the market area containing a slightly higher percentage of multi-family structures than the county. Multi-family structures with five or more units contain 34.3 percent of rental units in the market area and 32.9 percent of rentals in the county. Single-family detached homes comprise 42.8 percent of market area rental units (Table 16).

Representing the older established areas of Augusta that comprises the market area, the housing stock in the market area is much older than in Richmond County. The renter-occupied housing stock in the 15th Street Market Area has a median year built of 1964 compared to 1977 in the county. Roughly 60 percent of rental units in the market area were built prior to 1970 including roughly one-quarter built prior to 1950. Only 10.1 percent of market area rentals have been constructed since 1990 compared to 28.0 percent in the county. A larger discrepancy exists in owner occupied units as the median year built was 1957 in the market area and 1976 in the county (Table 17); over three-quarters (77.9 percent) of owner occupied units in the market area were built prior to 1970.

According to ACS data, the median value among owner-occupied housing units in the 15th Street Market Area from 2010 to 2014 was $80,511, which is $21,757 or 21.3 percent lower than the Richmond County median of $102,269 (Table 18). ACS estimates home values based upon values from homeowners’ assessments of the values of their homes. This data is traditionally a less accurate and reliable indicator of home prices in an area than actual sales data, but offers insight of relative housing values among two or more areas.

Table 16 Renter Occupied Unit by Structure Type

Richmond

County

15th Street

Market Area

# % # %

1, detached 13,148 39.2% 5,534 42.8%

1, attached 1,486 4.4% 325 2.5%

2 1,746 5.2% 917 7.1%

3-4 3,762 11.2% 1,508 11.7%

5-9 6,407 19.1% 2,550 19.7%

10-19 2,208 6.6% 482 3.7%

20+ units 2,420 7.2% 1,392 10.8%

Mobile home 2,364 7.0% 208 1.6%

Boat, RV, Van 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

TOTAL 33,541 100% 12,916 100%


Renter

Occupied42.8%

2.5%

7.1%

11.7%

19.7%

3.7%

10.8%

1.6%

0.0%

39.2%

4.4%

5.2%

11.2%

19.1%

6.6%

7.2%

7.0%

0.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

1, detached

1, attached

2

3-4

5-9

10-19

20+ units

Mobile home

Boat, RV, Van

% of Dwelling Units

Str

uct

ure

Ty

pe

2010-2014 Renter Occupied Units By Structure

15th Street

Market Area

Richmond

County


� Page 34

Table 17 Dwelling Units by Year Built and Tenure

Table 18 Value of Owner Occupied Housing Stock

�

C.� Survey of General Occupancy Rental Communities

1.� Introduction to the Rental Housing Survey

As part of this analysis, RPRG surveyed 18 general occupancy communities in the 15th Street Market Area including 15 market rate communities and three LIHTC communities. Among the LIHTC communities, Cedarwood includes Project Based Rental Assistance (PBRA) on all units. Given 15th Street Development Phase II will have LIHTC units with PBRA, data for Cedarwood is shown for reference purposes; however, it is not included in the overall rental analysis as PBRA contract rents are not necessarily reflective of market conditions. As the subject property will include market rate units, LIHTC units, and LIHTC units with PBRA, all surveyed communities are considered comparable to 15th Street Development Phase II.

Richmond

County

15th Street

Market Area

Richmond

County

15th Street

Market Area

# % # % # % # %

2010 or later 456 1.2% 8 0.1% 2010 or later 807 2.4% 47 0.4%

2000 to 2009 5,372 14.0% 312 3.2% 2000 to 2009 4,380 13.1% 480 3.7%

1990 to 1999 5,727 15.0% 215 2.2% 1990 to 1999 4,202 12.5% 780 6.0%

1980 to 1989 5,615 14.7% 650 6.7% 1980 to 1989 6,081 18.1% 1,601 12.4%

1970 to 1979 6,504 17.0% 956 9.9% 1970 to 1979 6,209 18.5% 2,283 17.7%

1960 to 1969 6,422 16.8% 2,156 22.3% 1960 to 1969 4,166 12.4% 2,450 19.0%

1950 to 1959 4,091 10.7% 2,552 26.4% 1950 to 1959 3,473 10.4% 1,981 15.3%

1940 to 1949 1,869 4.9% 1,247 12.9% 1940 to 1949 1,792 5.3% 1,332 10.3%

1939 or earlier 2,179 5.7% 1,572 16.3% 1939 or earlier 2,431 7.2% 1,962 15.2%

TOTAL 38,235 100% 9,668 100% TOTAL 33,541 100% 12,916 100%

MEDIAN YEAR

BUILT 1976 1957

MEDIAN YEAR

BUILT 1977 1964

Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014 Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014

Owner

Occupied

Renter

Occupied

# % # %

less than $60,000 6,149 16.4% 2,418 25.4%

$60,000 $99,999 12,039 32.2% 3,514 37.0%

$100,000 $149,999 9,443 25.3% 1,752 18.4%

$150,000 $199,999 5,063 13.5% 651 6.8%

$200,000 $299,999 2,658 7.1% 461 4.8%

$300,000 $399,999 1,062 2.8% 350 3.7%

$400,000 $499,999 391 1.0% 127 1.3%

$500,000 $749,999 317 0.8% 100 1.1%

$750,000 over 270 0.7% 133 1.4%

Total 37,392 100% 9,506 100%

Median Value


2010-2014 Home

Value

Richmond

County

15th Street

Market Area

$102,269 $80,511

16.4%

32.2%

25.3%

13.5%

7.1%

2.8%

1.0%

0.8%

0.7%

25.4%

37.0%

18.4%

6.8%

4.8%

3.7%

1.3%

1.1%

1.4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

< $60K

$60-$99K

$100-149k

$150-$199K

$200-$299K

$300-$399K

$400-$499K

$500-$749K

$750>

% of Owner Occupied Dwellings

Ho

me

Va

lue

($

00

0s)

2010-2014 Home Value


Richmond County


� Page 35

The survey includes 2,441 units without PBRA and 184 units with PBRA. The two LIHTC communities without PBRA combine to offer 377 units (Table 19). Profile sheets with detailed information on each surveyed community, including photographs, are attached as Appendix 7.

2.� Location

A majority of surveyed communities are west of the site toward Interstate 520 and a few are north of the site including two in or near downtown Augusta (Map 6). The two highest priced rental communities are the closest communities to the site, both just over one mile from the site. Due to access to community amenities and major transportation arteries, the site’s location is considered generally comparable to all existing communities in the market area.

3.� Size of Communities

The surveyed communities range from 10 to 324 units and average 144 units. The two LIHTC communities without PBRA have 161 units (Forest Brook) and 216 units (Maxwell House). Cedarwood, a LIHTC community with PBRA on all units, has 184 units.

4.� Age of Communities

The surveyed communities in the market area are generally older. With the exception of Canalside, built in 2015, the surveyed communities were built from 1951 to 1986. Among the surveyed communities without PBRA, the average year built is 1977 including two LIHTC communities with an average year built of 1968; however, a number communities have been rehabbed including the two LIHTC communities. Cedarwood, a LIHTC community with PBRA on all units, was built in 1975 and rehabbed in 2007.

5.� Structure Type

Thirteen communities offer garden style units including five that also offer townhomes; three communities offer townhomes only. The two communities in or near downtown are contained in a mid-rise (Canalside) or high-rise (Maxwell House) building.

6.� Vacancy Rates

Among the 15 stabilized communities (without PBRA) reporting occupancy, only 33 of 1,821 units were vacant for an aggregate vacancy rate of just 1.8 percent. Providence Place is holding 50 units vacant as part of a major renovation and the property manager at Georgian Place did not know occupancy information. The majority (12 communities) of surveyed communities reported a vacancy rate of less than two percent including nine that were fully occupied. All three LIHTC communities were fully occupied with a waiting list for at least select units.

7.� Rent Concessions

Three market rate communities reported incentives including reduced rents on select units and $150 to $500 off a 12-month lease.

8.� Absorption History

Canalside opened in May 2015 and leased 104 units in 11 months, an average monthly absorption of nine to 10 units. Canalside offers upgraded features including stainless steel appliances and granite counter tops and charges rents well above the rest of the market.


� Page 36

Map 6 Surveyed Rental Communities


� Page 37

Table 19 Rental Summary, Surveyed Communities

D.�Analysis of Product Offerings

1.� Payment of Utility Costs

Among the surveyed communities, 14 include the cost of water/sewer and trash removal, two include only the cost of trash removal, and one includes all utilities in the price of rent (Table 20). Both LIHTC communities include water/sewer and trash removal in the rent including Maxwell House which includes all utilities. 15th Street Development Phase II will include the cost of trash removal.

Map Year Year Structure Total Vacant Vacancy Avg 1BR Avg 2BR

# Community Built Rehab Type Units Units Rate Rent (1) Rent (1) Incentive

Subject 50% AMI/PBRA Gar 9 $416* $486*

Subject 50% AMI Gar 9 $365

Subject 60% AMI Gar 48 $470 $565

Subject - Market Rate Gar 24 $700

1 Canalside 2015 Mid Rise 106 2 1.9% $1,153 $1,420 Reduced rent on 1BR units

2 Hickman Arms 1965 2003 Gar/TH 58 0 0.0% $714 None

3 Lenox of Augusta 1975 Gar 187 13 7.0% $572 $678 $150 off 12-month lease

4 Georgian Place 1968 2016 Gar/TH 324 N/A N/A $549 $651 None

5 High Point Crossing 1977 1998 Gar 168 3 1.8% $560 $650 None

6 Antebellum TH 1986 TH 10 0 0.0% $595 None

7 Forest Brook* 1984 1999 Gar 161 0 0.0% $515 $588 None

8 Sierra Pointe 1969 2007 Gar 200 3 1.5% $525 $575 None

9 Providence Place 1972 2016 Gar/TH 296 70 23.6% $475 $567 $500 off 12-month lease

10 Cedar Ridge 1986 Gar 75 0 0.0% $480 $558 None

11 Regency Village 1980 Gar 95 0 0.0% $475 $550 None

12 Singleton 1985 TH 52 0 0.0% $550 None

13 Magnolia Park 1969 1996 Gar/TH 171 0 0.0% $475 $542 None

14 Heritage 1967 Gar 188 11 5.9% $485 $532 None

15 Glenwood I & II 1985 Gar 94 0 0.0% $475 $525 None

16 Norris Place 1971 TH 40 1 2.5% $513 None

17 Maxwell House* 1951 2005 High Rise 216 0 0.0% $544 None

Total 2,441

Stabilized Reporting Total 1,821 33 1.8%

Average 1977 144 $560 $638

LIHTC Total 377 0 0.0%

LIHTC Average 1968 189 $530 $588

Tax Credit Communities*

Community is undergoing renovation. Fifty units are being held vacant.

Subject rent for units with PBRA is maximum allowable LIHTC rent*

(1) Rent is contract rent, and not adjusted for utilities or incentives

Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. April/May 2016.

Map Year Year Structure Total Vacant Vacancy Avg 1BR Avg 2BR

# Community Built Rehab Type Units Units Rate Rent (1) Rent (1) Incentive

18 Cedarwood* 1975 2007 Gar/TH 184 0 0.0% $488 $525 None

Total 184 0 0.0%

Average 1975 184 $488 $525

Tax Credit/Deep Subsidy Communities*

(1) Rent is contract rent, and not adjusted for utilities or incentives



� Page 38

2.� Unit Features

Twelve communities include dishwashers in each unit and one includes them in select units. Only two communities include a microwave in each unit including Canalside, the highest priced community in the market area. Nine communities include washer and dryer connections in at least select units and Canalside includes a washer and dryer in each unit. Among the two LIHTC communities, Maxwell House offers limited unit features while Forest Brook includes a dishwasher and washer and dryer connections. Outside of Canalside (which offers stainless steel appliances, hardwood flooring in the kitchen and baths, upgraded cabinets, and granite counter tops in half of its units), the market area’s rental housing stock generally offers limited upgraded unit features as they are all at least 30 years old. The much higher rents at Canalside can be attributed to the new construction and far superior upscale unit features. 15th Street Development Phase II’s unit features will be superior to most surveyed communities, the exception being the luxury units at Canalside, as they will be much newer and include a dishwasher, a garbage disposal, a microwave, ceiling fans, and washer and dryer connections in each unit.

3.� Parking

All communities include free surface parking as a standard feature.

4.� Community Amenities

The most common amenities are a swimming pool (eight properties) and a playground (eight properties). Three properties offer tennis courts, two have a clubhouse/community room, two have a fitness room, and two have a business/computer center (Table 21). Among the two LIHTC communities, Maxwell House offers a fitness room and business center while Forest Brook offers a community room, swimming pool, and playground. 15th Street Development Phase II will include a clubhouse with leasing office, gathering areas, furnished library, laundry facilities, and fitness center. Outdoor amenities will include a playground and sitting areas. These amenities will be generally comparable to existing communities in the market area. The lack of a swimming pool is acceptable due to the small size of the proposed subject property.


� Page 39

Table 20 Utility Arrangement and Unit Features

Community He

at

Ho

t W

ate

r

Co

ok

ing

Ele

ctri

c

Wa

ter

Tra

sh Dish-

washer

Micro-

wave Parking

In-Unit

Laundry

Subject �� STD STD Surface Hook Ups

Canalside �� STD STD Surface STD - Stacked

Hickman Arms �� STD Surface Hook Ups

Lenox of Augusta �� STD Surface Select - HU

Georgian Place �� STD Surface Select - HU

High Point Crossing �� STD Surface Hook Ups

Antebellum TH �� Surface

Forest Brook �� STD Surface Hook Ups

Sierra Pointe �� STD Surface

Providence Place �� Select Surface

Cedar Ridge �� STD Surface Hook Ups

Regency Village �� STD Surface Hook Ups

Singleton �� STD STD Surface

Magnolia Park �� STD Surface Select - HU

Heritage �� STD Surface Select - HU

Glenwood I & II �� Surface

Norris Place �� Surface

Maxwell House Surface


Utilities Included in Rent


� Page 40

Table 21 Community Amenities

5.� Unit Distribution

Fourteen surveyed communities reported unit distributions, accounting for 84 percent of the surveyed units. Among these communities, two bedroom units are the most common at 58.4 percent of surveyed units. One bedroom units comprise 33.0 percent of surveyed units and three bedroom units comprise 4.7 percent (Table 22). Two communities offer efficiency units, accounting for 3.9 percent of surveyed units.

6.� Effective Rents

Unit rents presented in Table 22 are net or effective rents, as opposed to street or advertised rents. To arrive at effective rents, we apply adjustments to street rents in order to control for current rental incentives and to equalize the impact of utility expenses across complexes. Specifically, the net rents represent the hypothetical situation where trash removal utility costs are included in monthly rents at all communities, with tenants responsible for other utility costs.

Among all surveyed rental communities without PBRA, net rents, unit sizes, and rents per square foot were as follows:

Community Clu

bh

ou

se

Fitn

ess

Ro

om

Po

ol

Pla

yg

rou

nd

Te

nn

is C

ou

rt

Bu

sin

ess

Ce

nte

r

Ga

ted

En

try

Subject ��

Canalside ��

Hickman Arms ��

Lenox of Augusta ��

Georgian Place ��

High Point Crossing ��

Antebellum TH ��

Forest Brook ��

Sierra Pointe ��

Providence Place ��

Cedar Ridge ��

Regency Village ��

Singleton ��

Magnolia Park ��

Heritage ��

Glenwood I & II ��

Norris Place ��

Maxwell House ��



� Page 41

�� One-bedroom effective rents averaged $519 per month. The average one bedroom unit size was 656 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.79. The range for one bedroom effective rents was $410 to $1,153.

�� Two-bedroom effective rents averaged $614 per month. The average two bedroom unit size was 937 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.66. The range for two bedroom effective rents was $493 to $1,420.

�� Three-bedroom effective rents averaged $706 per month. The average three bedroom unit size was 1,155 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.61. The range for three bedroom effective rents was $650 to $759.

Average effective rents include market rate rents and LIHTC rents at 50 percent and 60 percent of AMI. Rents at Canalside are roughly $600 to $700 higher than all other surveyed units.

Table 22 Unit Distribution, Size, and Pricing

7.� DCA Average Market Rent

To determine average “market rents” as outlined in DCA’s 2016 Market Study Manual, market rate rents were averaged at the most comparable communities to the proposed 15th Street Development Phase II. These include five general occupancy properties in the 15th Street Market Area. It is important to note, “average market rents” are not adjusted to reflect differences in age, unit size, or amenities relative to the subject property. As such, a negative rent differential does not necessary

Total

Community Units Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF

Subject 50% AMI/PBRA 9 3 $416* 760 $0.55 4 $486* 1,030 $0.47 2 $542* 1,315 $0.41

Subject 50% AMI 9 9 $365 760 $0.48

Subject 60% AMI 48 15 $470 760 $0.62 29 $565 1,030 $0.55 4 $645 1,315 $0.49

Subject - Market Rate 24 12 $700 1,030 $0.68 12 $800 1,315 $0.61

Canalside 106 90 $1,153 614 $1.88 16 $1,420 988 $1.44

Hickman Arms 58 58 $694 1,022 $0.68

Georgian Place 324 80 $534 715 $0.75 196 $631 1,005 $0.63 48 $759 1,150 $0.66

High Point Crossing 168 32 $545 850 $0.64 120 $630 950 $0.66 16 $725 1,050 $0.69

Lenox of Augusta 187 63 $504 713 $0.71 106 $605 1,128 $0.54 18 $701 1,300 $0.54

Antebellum TH 10 10 $575 1,000 $0.58

Sierra Pointe 200 17 $525 620 $0.85 183 $575 830 $0.69

Forest Brook* 60% AMI 161 57 $500 580 $0.86 96 $568 878 $0.65 8 $745 1,250 $0.60

Cedar Ridge 75 60 $465 650 $0.72 6 $538 907 $0.59

Regency Village 95 93 $460 960 $0.48 2 $530 960 $0.55

Singleton 52 52 $530 940 $0.56

Magnolia Park 171 13 $460 710 $0.65 152 $522 989 $0.53 6 $650 1,100 $0.59

Heritage 188 28 $470 750 $0.63 160 $512 811 $0.63

Glenwood I & II 94 $460 600 $0.77 $505 800 $0.63

Providence Place 296 $418 540 $0.77 $505 883 $0.57 $658 1,080 $0.61

Norris Place 40 40 $493 900 $0.55

Maxwell House 216 144 $455 532 $0.86

Maxwell House* 60% AMI $423 556 $0.76

Maxwell House* 50% AMI $410 450 $0.91

Total/Average 2,441 $519 656 $0.79 $614 937 $0.66 $706 1,155 $0.61

Unit Distribution 2,051 677 1,197 96

% of Total 84.0% 33.0% 58.4% 4.7%

Tax Credit Communities*

Rent adjusted $40 for including cable

Subject rent for units with PBRA is maximum allowable LIHTC rent*

(1) Rent is adjusted to include only Trash and incentives


One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units


� Page 42

indicate the proposed rents are unreasonable or unachievable in the market. LIHTC units are not used in this calculation.

The “average market rent” was $684 for one bedroom units, $796 for two bedroom units, and $860 for three bedroom units (Table 23). The subject property’s proposed 50 percent AMI rents have rent advantages ranging from 37.0 to 46.6 percent and the proposed 60 percent AMI rents have rent advantages ranging from 25.0 to 31.3 percent. The proposed market rate rents are 7.0 to 12.1 percent lower than market rate averages. The overall rent advantage for 15th Street Development Phase II is 26.7 percent (Table 24).

Table 23 Average Market Rent

Table 24 Average Market Rent and Rent Advantage Summary

E.� Interviews

Primary information gathered through field and phone interviews was used throughout the various sections of this report. The interviewees included rental community property managers, staff with the Augusta-Richmond County Planning and Development Department, Sevi Robinson with the Augusta Housing Authority, and Walter Sprouse with the Augusta Economic Development Authority.

Community Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Rent(1) SF Rent/SF

Canalside $1,153 614 $1.88 $1,420 988 $1.44 $1,420 988 $1.44

Hickman Arms $694 1,022 $0.68 $694 1,022 $0.68

Georgian Place $534 715 $0.75 $631 1,005 $0.63 $759 1,150 $0.66

High Point Crossing $545 850 $0.64 $630 950 $0.66 $725 1,050 $0.69

Lenox of Augusta $504 713 $0.71 $605 1,128 $0.54 $701 1,300 $0.54

Total/Average $684 723 $0.95 $796 1019 $0.78 $860 1,102 $0.78

Two bedroom rents are utilized as the community does not offer three bedroom units

(1) Rent is adjusted to include only Trash and incentives


One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units

1 BR 2 BR 3 BR

Average Market Rent $684 $796 $860

Maximum 50% AMI Rent* $416 $486 $542

Advantage ($) $268 $310 $318

Advantage (%) 39.2% 38.9% 37.0%

Total Units 3 4 2

Proposed 50% AMI Rent $365

Advantage ($) $319

Advantage (%) 46.6%

Total Units 9

Proposed 60% AMI Rent $470 $565 $645

Advantage ($) $214 $231 $215

Advantage (%) 31.3% 29.0% 25.0%

Total Units 15 29 4

Proposed Market Rent $700 $800

Advantage ($) $96 $60

Advantage (%) 12.1% 7.0%

Total Units 12 12

Overall Rent Advantage 26.7%

PBRA units; rent is maximum 50 percent AMI LIHTC rent*


� Page 43

F.� Multi-Family Pipeline

Based on Georgia DCA LIHTC allocation lists, two communities have been awarded Low Income Housing Tax Credits in the market area over the past two years. The first phase of the 15th Street Development was awarded tax credits in 2015 and will have 80 senior-oriented units. The first phase will not compete with the subject property as the first phase will be age-restricted. Freedom’s Path, allocated in 2014, is an adaptive reuse of two buildings on the Charlie Norwood VA Medical Center campus. Freedom’s Path will target veterans with 78 total units including 66 with Project Based Rental Assistance (PBRA). The 12 fifty percent one-bedroom units will be the only units at Freedom’s Path that will be directly comparable to the subject property as 28 of Freedom’s Path’s units will be efficiencies and 38 units will have PBRA and target households earning up to 60 percent of the Area Median Income. No projects were allocated Low Income Housing Tax Credits in the market area in 2013.

G.�Housing Authority Data

Per Sevi Robinson with the Augusta Housing Authority, the housing authority operates 1,919 public housing units and holds a waiting list of over 3,100 households. The housing authority also manages 4,087 Section 8 Housing Choice Vouchers and has 2,644 households on the waiting list.

H.�Existing Low Income Rental Housing

Twenty-five affordable rental communities are in the market area including five LIHTC communities (Table 25). Two LIHTC communities are age restricted and not comparable to the proposed general occupancy units at 15th Street Development Phase II; the three comparable general occupancy LIHTC communities were included in our competitive survey. The balance of the affordable housing stock is deeply subsidized through Public Housing or Section 8 with rents based on a percentage of income; thus, these communities are not directly comparable to the subject property. The location of these communities relative to the subject site is shown in Map 7.

Table 25 Subsidized Communities, 15th Street Market Area

Community Subsidy Type Address Distance

Maxwell House LIHTC Family 1002 Greene St. 2 miles

Forest Brook LIHTC Family 3122 Damascus Rd. 3.9 miles

Augusta Spring LIHTC Senior 1730 Sibley Rd. 5.1 miles

Linden Square LIHTC Senior 1425 Lee Beard Way 0.5 mile

Cedarwood LIHTC/Section 8 Family 527 Richmond Hill Rd. W 3.5 miles

Dogwood Terrace Public Housing Family Old Savannah Rd. 1.7 miles

Jennings Place Public Housing Family 1690 Olive Rd. 1.2 miles

MM Scott Public Housing Family 825 Spruce St. 1.7 miles

Olmstead Homes Public Housing Family 2141 C St. 2.8 miles

Ervin Towers Public Housing Senior 1365 Laney Walker Blvd. 0.9 mile

Hal Powell Public Housing Senior 2244 Broad St. 3.1 miles

Peabody Public Housing Senior 1425 Walton Way 1.3 miles

Independent Living Horizons I Section 8 Disabled 714 Monte Sano Ave. 3.3 miles

Independent Living Horizons II Section 8 Disabled 2038 Fenwick St. 1.9 miles

Independent Living Horizons III Section 8 Disabled 2208 Walden Dr. 2.1 miles

Independent Living Horizons IV Section 8 Disabled 3005 Lee St. 3.9 miles

Independent Living Horizons V Section 8 Disabled 2902 Howell Rd. 4.5 miles

Independent Living Horizons XI Section 8 Disabled 511 Richmond Hill Rd. W 3.4 miles

Independent Living Horizons XV Section 8 Disabled 2579 Dover St. 4.1 miles

Augusta Properties/Renaissance Vil lage Section 8 Family 1901 Broad St. 2.1 miles

Shadowood Section 8 Family 2506A Lumpkin Rd. 5 miles

Bon Air Section 8 Senior 2101 Walton Way 1.9 miles

Independent Living Horizons VI Section 8 Senior 2950 Richmond Hill Rd. 4.2 miles

Richmond Summit Section 8 Senior 744 Broad St. 2.5 miles

St. John's Towers Section 8 Senior 724 Greene St. 2.4 miles

Sources: HUD, GA DCA, Augusta Housing Authority


� Page 44

Map 7 Subsidized Rental Communities

I.� Impact of Abandoned, Vacant, or Foreclosed Homes

Based on field observations, a moderate amount of abandoned / vacant single and multi-family homes exist in the neighborhood surrounding the subject property. In addition, to understand the state of foreclosure in the community around the subject site, we tapped data available through RealtyTrac, a web site aimed primarily at assisting interested parties in the process of locating and purchasing properties in foreclosure and at risk of foreclosure. RealtyTrac classifies properties in its database into several different categories, among them three that are relevant to our analysis: 1.) pre-foreclosure property – a property with loans in default and in danger of being repossessed or auctioned, 2.) auction property – a property that lien holders decide to sell at public auctions, once the homeowner’s grace period has expired, in order to dispose of the property as quickly as possible, and 3.) bank-owned property – a unit that has been repossessed by lenders. We included properties within these three foreclosure categories in our analysis. We queried the RealtyTrac database for ZIP


� Page 45

code 30901 in which the subject property will be located and the broader areas of Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia, and the United States for comparison purposes.

Our RealtyTrac search revealed an uncharacteristic foreclosure rate of 0.83 percent in the subject property’s ZIP Code (30901) in March 2016. In comparison, foreclosure rates were 0.19 percent in Augusta, 0.23 percent in Richmond County, 0.09 percent in Georgia, and 0.08 percent in the nation (Table 26). Outside of March 2016, foreclosures were kept to a minimum in the subject’s Zip Code over the past year; the monthly number of foreclosures in the subject’s ZIP Code ranged from one to 16 from April 2015 to February 2016 before jumping significantly to 70 in March 2016.

While the conversion of foreclosure properties can affect the demand for new multi-family rental housing in some markets, the impact on a primarily affordable housing community is typically limited due to their tenant rent and income restrictions. Furthermore, outside of the unexplained jump in foreclosure activity in March 2016, the number of foreclosures over the past year were not significant. As such, we do not believe foreclosed, abandoned, or vacant single/multi-family homes will impact the subject property’s ability to lease its units.

Table 26 Foreclosure Rate and Recent Foreclosure Activity, ZIP Code 31088

GeographyMarch 2016

Foreclosure Rate

ZIP Code: 30901 0.83%

Augusta 0.19%

Richmond County 0.23%

Georgia 0.09%

National 0.08%

Source: Realtytrac.com

0.83%

0.19% 0.23%0.09% 0.08%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

ZIP Code: 30901

Month# of

Foreclosures

April 2015 3

May 2015 6

June 2015 5

July 2015 3

August 2015 1

September 2015 4

October 2015 16

November 2015 2

December 2015 6

January 2016 5

February 2016 1

March 2016 70

Source: Realtytrac.com

36 5 3 1 4

16

26

5 1

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Pro

pe

rtie

s

15th Street Development Phase II | Findings and Conclusions

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8.�FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

A.�Key Findings

Based on the preceding review of the subject project and demographic and competitive housing trends in the 15th Street Market Area, RPRG offers the following key findings:

1.� Site and Neighborhood Analysis

The subject site is a suitable location for mixed-income rental housing as it is compatible with surrounding land uses and has ample access to amenities, services, employers, and transportation arteries.

�� The subject site is in an established residential neighborhood southwest of downtown Augusta. Single-family detached homes and multi-family rental communities are common within two to three miles of the site.

�� The site is within one to two miles of many community amenities and services including retail, public transit, convenience stores, pharmacies, banks, restaurants, grocery stores, public schools, and medical facilities. The site will have easy access to a number of major thoroughfares, providing access to downtown Augusta and employers. Fort Gordon, the largest concentration of jobs in the county by far, is roughly eight to nine miles west of the site via U.S. Highway 1.

�� The subject site is suitable for the proposed development. No negative land uses were identified that would affect the proposed development’s viability in the marketplace.

�� The redevelopment of a former and recently demolished public housing community on the subject site will improve the condition of the immediate neighborhood.

2.� Economic Context

Richmond County’s economy is stable with a decreasing unemployment rate and recent job growth.

�� Richmond County’s unemployment has decreased in each of the past four years to 7.0 percent in 2015 from a recession-era peak of 11.3 percent in 2011. The county’s 2015 unemployment rate is the lowest since 2007.

�� The county has added jobs in three of the past four years including growth of 2,838 jobs in 2014, the largest expansion of jobs since 2000. Since 2010, the county has added roughly 6,700 jobs or 6.9 percent.

�� Government is the largest employment sector in Richmond County, accounting for 23.4 percent of all jobs in 2015 Q3 compared to 15.2 percent of total employment nationally; a major driving force of the county’s economy is the Fort Gordon army base.

�� The subject site is proximate to major employers including Fort Gordon which is the county’s largest employer with over 25,000 employees.

�� Between the two large job expansions at Fort Gordon and expansions announced at a number of large companies in Richmond County since 2014, 6,535 total new jobs are expected in the county in the short-term. We identified several companies announcing layoffs since 2014 totaling 1,146 jobs lost.

3.� Population and Household Trends

The 15th Street Market Area’s population and household base declined moderately in the previous decade but losses have slowed over the past six years and are projected to slow even further over the


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next two years. It should be noted that the market area is adding renter households while losing owner households.

�� The 15th Street Market Area lost 568 people (0.9 percent) and 201 households (0.8 percent) per year between the 2000 and 2010 Census counts. Losses continued, although at a slower pace from 2010 to 2016, with 0.3 percent annual population loss and 0.2 percent annual losses among households.

�� From 2016 to 2018, Esri projects annual population and household decline in the 15th Street Market Area to slow even further to 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. Esri projects the market area will lose 98 people and 27 households per year over the next two years.

4.� Demographic Trends

The 15th Street Market Area is generally older with modest incomes and has a relatively large proportion of small households resulting in a high renter percentage when compared to Richmond County. The renter percentage in the market area is projected to increase from 56.7 percent in 2010 to 60.7 percent in 2018; the market area has steadily added renter households and lost owner households since 2000.

�� Roughly 52 percent of the market area’s population is over the age of 35 including 20.2 percent age 62 or older. Young Adults age 20 to 34 represent 22.3 percent of the 15th Street Market Area population.

�� Approximately 38 percent of all households in the 15th Street Market Area are single person households. One-third of households have at least two adults but no children; most of these households are not married – indicating roommate situations. Roughly 28 percent of households in the market area contain children.

�� The 15th Street Market Area’s 2010 renter percentage was 56.7 percent compared to 45.8 percent in Richmond County. The renter percentage in the market area is projected to increase to 59.9 percent in 2016 and 60.7 percent by 2018; the market area has added 578 renters and lost 935 owners from 2010 to 2016 and is projected to add 179 renters and lose 233 owner households over the next two years.

�� Renter householders are generally older in the 15th Street Market Area as renters age 45 or older comprise roughly half of the market area’s renter households; however, the market area does have a significant percentage (24.5 percent) of young adults age 25 to 34.

�� As of 2010, over two-thirds (67.3 percent) of all renter households in the 15th Street Market Area contained one or two persons including 41.5 percent with one person. Households with three or four persons accounted for 24.1 percent of renter households and large households (5+ persons) accounted for 8.6 percent of renter households.

�� Incomes in the market area are generally modest. The 2016 median income of households in the 15th Street Market Area is $25,586, $10,640 or 29.4 percent lower than the $36,226 median in Richmond County. RPRG estimates that the median income of renter households in the 15th Street Market Area is a modest $16,176; however, a significant percentage of renters earn moderate incomes. Roughly 65 percent of renters in the market area earn less than $25,000 and 23.8 percent earn between $25,000 and $49,999. Approximately 12 percent of renter households in the market area earn $50,000 or more.


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5.� Competitive Housing Analysis

RPRG surveyed 18 multi-family rental communities in the 15th Street Market Area including three LIHTC communities. At the time of our survey, the rental market in the market area was performing very well including all LIHTC communities which were fully occupied with waiting lists.

�� Among the 15 stabilized communities (without PBRA) reporting occupancy, 33 of 1,821 units were vacant for an aggregate vacancy rate of just 1.8 percent. Providence Place is holding 50 units vacant as part of a major renovation and the property manager at Georgian Place did not know occupancy information. The LIHTC communities were all fully occupied with waiting lists on at least select units. Among all communities without PBRA, 12 reported a vacancy rate of less than two percent including nine that were fully occupied.

�� Among the 17 surveyed communities without PBRA, net rents, unit sizes, and rents per square foot were as follows:

�� One-bedroom effective rents averaged $519 per month. The average one bedroom unit size was 656 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.79.

�� Two-bedroom effective rents averaged $614 per month. The average two bedroom unit size was 937 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.66.

�� Three-bedroom effective rents averaged $706 per month. The average three bedroom unit size was 1,155 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.61.

�� The “average market rent” was $684 for one bedroom units, $796 for two bedroom units, and $860 for three bedroom units. All proposed LIHTC units at the subject property have rent advantages of at least 25 percent and all proposed market rate rents are at least seven percent below market rent averages in the market area. The overall rent advantage for 15th Street Development Phase II is 26.7 percent.

�� Freedom’s Path, allocated in 2014, is an adaptive reuse of two buildings on the Charlie Norwood VA Medical Center campus. Freedom’s Path will target veterans and will have 78 total units, of which 66 will have Project Based Rental Assistance (PBRA). The 12 fifty percent one-bedroom units without PBRA will be the only units at Freedom’s Path that will be directly comparable to the subject.

B.�Affordability Analysis

1.� Methodology

The Affordability Analysis tests the percentage of income-qualified households in the market area that the subject community must capture in order to achieve full occupancy.

The first component of the Affordability Analyses involves looking at the total household income distribution and renter household income distribution among 15th Street Market Area households for the target year of 2018. RPRG calculated the income distribution for both total households and renter households based on the relationship between owner and renter household incomes by income cohort from the 2010-2014 American Community Survey along with estimates and projected income growth by Esri (Table 27).

A particular housing unit is typically said to be affordable to households that would be expending a certain percentage of their annual income or less on the expenses related to living in that unit. In the case of rental units, these expenses are generally of two types – monthly contract rents paid to landlords and payment of utility bills for which the tenant is responsible. The sum of the contract rent and utility bills is referred to as a household’s ‘gross rent burden’. For the Affordability Analysis, RPRG employs a 35 percent gross rent burden. This rent burden only applies for tenants who do not receive


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PBRA. As DCA considers units with PBRA to be leasable, the affordability analysis has been conducted without this additional subsidy on the nine one-bedroom 50 percent AMI units.

The proposed LIHTC units at 15th Street Development Phase II will target renter households earning up to 50 percent and 60 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI), adjusted for household size. Since the market rate units will be serving moderate income households, RPRG assumed that the target market includes future renters earning as much as 80 percent AMI. Maximum income limits are derived from 2015 HUD income limits (per Georgia DCA requirements) for the Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC MSA and are based on an average of 1.5 persons per bedroom rounded up to the nearest whole number per DCA requirements. Maximum gross rents, however, are based on the federal regulation of 1.5 persons per bedroom. Rent and income limits are detailed in Table 28 on the following page. Minimum income limits will not apply to the proposed LIHTC units with PBRA at the subject property. As DCA considers all proposed PBRA units to be leasable, we have evaluated these units utilizing the maximum allowable 50 percent AMI rent, the most that could be charged without PBRA.

Table 27 2018 Total and Renter Income Distribution

# % # %

less than $15,000 8,346 34.3% 7,170 48.5%

$15,000 $24,999 3,308 13.6% 2,294 15.5%

$25,000 $34,999 3,289 13.5% 1,873 12.7%

$35,000 $49,999 3,311 13.6% 1,649 11.1%

$50,000 $74,999 2,894 11.9% 1,200 8.1%

$75,000 $99,999 1,580 6.5% 444 3.0%

$100,000 $149,999 1,096 4.5% 135 0.9%

$150,000 Over 526 2.2% 25 0.2%

Total 24,349 100% 14,790 100%

Median Income

Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014 Projections, RPRG, Inc.

15th Street Market

Area

$26,583 $15,979

Total Households Renter Households


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Table 28 LIHTC Income and Rent Limits, Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC MSA

2.� Affordability Analysis

The steps in the affordability analysis (Table 29) are as follows:

�� Looking at the 12 one-bedroom units at 50 percent AMI (combined units with and without PBRA), the overall shelter cost at the proposed rent would be $516 ($378 net rent plus a $138 allowance to cover all utilities except trash removal).

�� By applying a 35 percent rent burden to this gross rent, we determined that a 50 percent one-bedroom unit would be affordable to households earning at least $17,683 per year. A projected 15,116 households in the market area will earn at least this amount in 2018.

�� Based on an average household size of two people, the maximum income limit for a one bedroom unit at 50 percent of the AMI is $23,650. According to the interpolated income distribution for 2018, 13,142 households in the 15th Street Market Area will have incomes exceeding this 50 percent LIHTC income limit.

�� Subtracting the 13,142 households with incomes above the maximum income limit from the 15,116 households that could afford to rent this unit, RPRG computes that an estimated 1,974 households in the 15th Street Market Area fall within the band of affordability for the subject’s one bedroom units at 50 percent AMI. The subject property would need to capture

HUD 2015 Median Household Income

Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC MSA $59,100

Very Low Income for 4 Person Household $29,550

2015 Computed Area Median Gross Income $59,100

Utility Allowance:

1 Bedroom $138

2 Bedroom $179

3 Bedroom $226

LIHTC Household Income Limits by Household Size:

Household Size 30% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100% 150%

1 Person $12,420 $16,560 $20,700 $24,840 $33,120 $41,400 $62,100

2 Persons $14,190 $18,920 $23,650 $28,380 $37,840 $47,300 $70,950

3 Persons $15,960 $21,280 $26,600 $31,920 $42,560 $53,200 $79,800

4 Persons $17,730 $23,640 $29,550 $35,460 $47,280 $59,100 $88,650

5 Persons $19,170 $25,560 $31,950 $38,340 $51,120 $63,900 $95,850

6 Persons $20,580 $27,440 $34,300 $41,160 $54,880 $68,600 $102,9007 Persons $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $08 Persons $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Imputed Income Limits by Number of Bedrooms:

Persons Bedrooms 30% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100% 150%

1 0 $12,420 $16,560 $20,700 $24,840 $33,120 $41,400 $62,100

2 1 $14,190 $18,920 $23,650 $28,380 $37,840 $47,300 $70,950

3 2 $15,960 $21,280 $26,600 $31,920 $42,560 $53,200 $79,800

5 3 $19,170 $25,560 $31,950 $38,340 $51,120 $63,900 $95,850

6 4 $20,580 $27,440 $34,300 $41,160 $54,880 $68,600 $102,900

LIHTC Tenant Rent Limits by Number of Bedrooms:

Assumes 1.5 Persons per bedroom

30% 40% 50% 60% 80%

Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net

1 Bedroom $332 $194 $443 $305 $554 $416 $665 $527 $887 $749

2 Bedroom $399 $220 $532 $353 $665 $486 $798 $619 $1,064 $885

3 Bedroom $461 $235 $615 $389 $768 $542 $922 $696 $1,230 $1,004

Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

# Persons

Assumes 1.5 persons per

bedroom


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0.6 percent of these income-qualified households to absorb the proposed 12 one-bedroom unit at 50 percent AMI.

�� RPRG next tested the range of qualified households that are currently renters and determined that 7,004 renter households can afford to rent a one bedroom 50 percent AMI unit at the subject property. Of these, 5,635 have incomes above our maximum income of $23,650. The net result is 1,369 renter households within the income band. To absorb the proposed 50 percent one-bedroom units, the subject property would need to capture 0.9 percent of income-qualified renter households.

�� Using the same methodology, we determined the band of qualified households for the remaining floor plan types and income levels offered at the community. We also computed the capture rates for all units. The remaining renter capture rates by floor plan range from 0.2 percent to 2.4 percent.

�� By income level, renter capture rates are 0.6 percent for 50 percent units, 1.5 percent for 60 percent units, 1.7 percent for all LIHTC units, 0.9 percent for the market rate units, and 1.7 percent for all units.

3.� Conclusions of Affordability

All affordability capture rates are low based on a significant number of income qualified renter households. These capture rates indicate more than sufficient income qualified households to support the proposed units.


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Table 29 Affordability Analysis, 15th Street Development Phase II

50% Units One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units

Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max.

Number of Units 12 4 2

Net Rent $378 $486 $542

Gross Rent $516 $665 $768

% Income for Shelter 35% 35% 35%

Income Range (Min, Max) $17,683 $23,650 $22,800 $26,600 $26,331 $31,950

Total Households

Range of Qualified Hhlds 15,116 13,142 13,423 12,169 12,258 10,410

1,974 1,254 1,848

Total HH Capture Rate 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Renter Households


1,369 804 1,053

Renter HH Capture Rate 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%



Net Rent $470 $565 $645

Gross Rent $608 $744 $871


Income Range (Min, Max) $20,846 $28,380 $25,509 $31,920 $29,863 $38,340

Total Households


# Qualified Households 2,486 2,109 2,427

Unit Total HH Capture Rate 0.6% 1.4% 0.2%

Renter Households


1,586 1,201 1,329

Renter HH Capture Rate 0.9% 2.4% 0.3%



Net Rent -- $700 $800

Gross Rent -- $879 $1,026


Income Range (Min, Max) na 0 $30,137 $42,560 $35,177 $51,120

Total Households

Range of Qualified Hhlds 0 0 11,006 7,738 9,367 5,965

# Qualified Households 0 3,268 3,402

Total HH Capture Rate na 0.4% 0.4%

Renter Households

Range of Qualified Hhlds 0 0 4,363 2,621 3,432 1,749

0 1,742 1,683

Renter HH Capture Rate na 0.7% 0.7%

# Qualified Households

# Qualified Hhlds

# Qualified Hhlds

# Qualified Renter

All Households = 24,349 Renter Households = 14,790#

Qualified

HHs

Band of Qualified

Hhlds

# Qualified

HHs

Capture

Rate

Income $17,683 $17,683

50% Units 18 Households 15,116 4,706 7,004 2,981 0.6%

Income $20,846 $20,846


Income $17,683 $17,683

LIHTC Units 66 Households 15,116 6,447 7,004 3,919 1.7%

Income $30,137 $30,137


Income $17,683 $17,683

Total Units 90 Households 15,116 9,151 7,004 5,255 1.7%

Source: 2010 U.S. Census,Esri, Estimates, RPRG, Inc.

Income

Target# Units

Capture Rate

$31,950 $31,950

10,410 0.4% 4,023

Band of Qualified Hhlds

$38,340 $38,340

8,669 0.9% 3,085

$51,120 $51,120

$51,120 $51,120

5,965 0.5% 1,749

$38,340 $38,340

8,669 1.0% 3,085

5,965 1.0% 1,749


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C.� Demand Estimates and Capture Rates

1.� Methodology

DCA’s demand methodology for general occupancy communities consists of three components:

�� The first component of demand is household growth. This number is the number of age and income qualified renter households projected to move into the 15th Street Market Area between the base year of 2014 and 2017 based on DCA’s market study guidelines.

�� The next component of demand is income qualified renter households living in substandard households. “Substandard” is defined as having more than 1.01 persons per room and/or lacking complete plumbing facilities. According to ACS data, the percentage of renter households in the primary market area that are “substandard” is 4.0 percent (Table 30). This substandard percentage is applied to current household numbers.

�� The third component of demand is cost burdened renters, which is defined as those renter households paying more than 35 percent of household income for housing costs. According to ACS data, 52.7 percent of the 15th Street Market Area’s renter households are categorized as cost burdened (Table 30).

The data assumptions used in the calculation of these demand estimates are detailed at the bottom of Table 31. Income qualification percentages are derived by using the Affordability Analysis detailed in Table 29.

2.� Demand Analysis

According to DCA’s demand methodology, all comparable units built or approved since the base year (2014) are to be subtracted from the demand estimates to arrive at net demand. Freedom’s Path, allocated in 2014, will target veterans and will have 78 total units, of which 66 will have Project Based Rental Assistance (PBRA). The 12 fifty percent one-bedroom units without PBRA will be the only units at Freedom’s Path that will be directly comparable to the subject. These 12 units have been subtracted from demand estimates.

As nine units at the subject property will have PBRA and DCA considers all units with PBRA leasable, the effective capture rate for these units is zero percent.

In order to test market conditions, we have calculated demand without the proposed PBRA on the nine 50 percent AMI units and rents are set at the maximum allowable LIHTC level for these units. Capture rates are 1.1 percent for the 50 percent units, 2.7 percent for the 60 percent AMI units, 3.0 percent for all LIHTC units, 1.6 percent for the market rate units, and 3.1 percent for the overall project (Table 31). By floor plan, capture rates range from 1.0 percent to 5.5 percent (Table 32).


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Table 30 Substandard and Cost Burdened Calculations

Table 31 DCA Demand by Income Level

�

�

Rent Cost Burden Substandardness

Total Households # % Total Households

Less than 10.0 percent 232 1.8% Owner occupied:

10.0 to 14.9 percent 730 5.7% Complete plumbing facilities: 9,648

15.0 to 19.9 percent 1,252 9.7% 1.00 or less occupants per room 9,505

20.0 to 24.9 percent 1,017 7.9% 1.01 or more occupants per room 143

25.0 to 29.9 percent 1,239 9.6% Lacking complete plumbing facilities: 20

30.0 to 34.9 percent 949 7.3% Overcrowded or lacking plumbing 163

35.0 to 39.9 percent 658 5.1%

40.0 to 49.9 percent 1,185 9.2% Renter occupied:

50.0 percent or more 4,191 32.4% Complete plumbing facilities: 12,802

Not computed 1,463 11.3% 1.00 or less occupants per room 12,393

Total 12,916 100.0% 1.01 or more occupants per room 409

Lacking complete plumbing facilities: 114

> 35% income on rent 6,034 52.7% Overcrowded or lacking plumbing 523


Substandard Housing 686

% Total Stock Substandard 3.0%

% Rental Stock Substandard 4.0%

Income Target 50% Units 60% Units LIHTC Units 80% Units Total Units

Minimum Income Limit $17,683 $20,846 $17,683 $30,137 $17,683

Maximum Income Limit $31,950 $38,340 $38,340 $51,120 $51,120

(A) Renter Income Qualification Percentage 20.2% 21.6% 26.5% 17.7% 35.5%

Demand from New Renter Households

Calculation (C-B) *F*A-10 -10 -13 -9 -17

PLUS

Demand from Existing Renter HHs (Substandard)

Calculation B*D*F*A120 128 157 105 211

PLUS

Demand from Existing Renter HHhs (Overburdened)

- Calculation B*E*F*A1,555 1,666 2,044 1,363 2,741

Total Demand 1,665 1,783 2,189 1,459 2,934

LESS

Comparable Units Built or Planned Since 2014 12 0 12 0 12

Net Demand 1,653 1,783 2,177 1,459 2,922

Proposed Units 18 48 66 24 90

Capture Rate 1.1% 2.7% 3.0% 1.6% 3.1%

Demand Calculation Inputs

A). % of Renter Hhlds with Qualifying Income see above

B). 2014 Households 24,457

C). 2017 Households 24,376

D). Substandard Housing (% of Rental Stock) 4.0%

E). Rent Overburdened (% of Renter Hhlds at >35%) 52.7%

F). Renter Percentage (% of all 2016 HHlds) 59.9%


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Table 32 DCA Demand by Floor Plan

�

D.�Product Evaluation

Considered in the context of the competitive environment, the relative position of 15th Street Development Phase II is as follows:

�� Site: The subject site is acceptable for a rental housing development targeting very low to moderate income renter households. Surrounding land uses are compatible with multi-family development and are appropriate for a mixed-income rental community. The subject site is convenient to major thoroughfares, employment concentrations, and community amenities. The site is generally comparable with existing multi-family communities in the market area.

�� Unit Distribution: The proposed unit mix for 15th Street Development Phase II will offer one, two, and three bedroom units. These floor plans are common in the market area and will be well received by the target market. The subject property will be weighted heavier in three bedroom units than the market; this is acceptable due to the small number of proposed three-bedroom units (18 units) and 32.7 percent of renter households having three or more people. The proposed unit mix is appropriate for the subject property.

�� Unit Size: The proposed unit sizes at 15th Street Development Phase II are 760 square feet for one bedroom units, 1,030 square feet for two bedroom units, and 1,315 square feet for three bedroom units. All proposed unit sizes are larger than market averages and will be among the largest units in the market. The proposed unit sizes for all floor plans will be well received by the proposed target market.

�� Unit Features: In-unit features offered at the subject property will include a range, refrigerator, dishwasher, garbage disposal, microwave, ceiling fans, crown molding, and washer and dryer connections in each unit. With the exception of the luxury finishes at the much higher priced Canalside, these unit features are comparable to or superior to existing communities in the market area including the LIHTC communities. The subject property will be one of the few communities in the market area with microwaves and crown molding.

�� Community Amenities: 15th Street Development Phase II’s community amenity package will include a clubhouse with leasing office, gathering areas, furnished library, laundry facilities, and fitness center. Outdoor amenities will include a playground and sitting areas. These amenities will be generally comparable to existing communities in the market area.


Proposed

Renter Income

Qualification %

Large Household

Size Adjustment

(3+ Persons)

Total

DemandSupply

Net

Demand

Capture

Rate

50% Units $17,683 - $31,950

One Bedroom Units $17,683 - $23,000 12 8.2% 681 12 669 1.8%

Two Bedroom Units $23,001 - $26,500 4 5.0% 413 0 413 1.0%

Three Bedroom Units $26,501 - $31,950 2 6.9% 32.7% 186 0 186 1.1%

60% Units $20,846 - $38,340

One Bedroom Units $20,846 - $26,000 15 7.7% 637 0 637 2.4%



80% Units $30,137 - $51,120



Project Total $17,683 - $51,120

50% Units $17,683 - $31,950 18 20.2% 1,665 12 1,653 1.1%

60% Units $20,846 - $38,340 48 21.6% 1,783 0 1,783 2.7%

LIHTC Units $17,683 - $38,340 66 26.5% 2,189 12 2,177 3.0%

80% Units $30,137 - $51,120 24 17.7% 1,459 0 1,459 1.6%

Total Units $17,683 - $51,120 90 35.5% 2,934 12 2,922 3.1%


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The lack of a swimming pool is acceptable due to the small size of the proposed subject property and the lower proposed rents.

�� Marketability: The subject property will offer an attractive product that is suitable for the target market.

E.� Price Position

As shown in Figure 8, the proposed LIHTC rents are comparable to or lower than existing LIHTC rents at comparable AMI levels in the market area. Taking into account the large units sizes proposed at the subject property, rent per square foot at the subject property will be much lower than all existing LIHTC units at comparable AMI levels. The proposed market rate rents will be positioned between Canalside, the only new luxury rental community surveyed in the market area, and the remaining older market rate communities in the market area. The proposed market rate rents are well below those at Canalside and are just above the highest rents among the remaining older market rate communities. Given the new construction (all market rate communities, with the exception of Canalside, are at least 30 years old), the proposed product (superior unit features to most surveyed communities), and rents well below the top of the market, the proposed rents are appropriate.

Figure 8 Price Position – 15th Street Development Phase II


� Page 57


� Page 58

F.� Absorption Estimate

Canalside opened in May 2015 and leased 104 units in 11 months, an average monthly absorption of 9.5 units. In addition to the experiences of existing rental communities, the absorption rate for the subject property is based on projected renter household growth, the number of income-qualified renter households projected in the market area, demand estimates, rental market conditions, and the marketability of the proposed site and product.

�� The 15th Street Market Area added 578 renter households over the past six years and is projected to add 179 renter households over the next two years.

�� Over 5,200 renter households will be income-qualified for one of the proposed units at the subject property. The overall affordability capture rate is 1.7 percent.

�� All DCA demand capture rates, both overall and by floor plan, are low and well within acceptable thresholds of 30 percent for all units proposed at 15th Street Development Phase II. The overall demand capture rate is 3.1 percent.

�� The rental market in the 15th Street Market Area is performing very well with a stabilized vacancy rate of just 1.8 percent. All three LIHTC communities are fully occupied with waiting lists.

�� 15th Street Development Phase II will offer an attractive product that is competitive with existing market rate and LIHTC communities in the market area; the proposed product will be well received at the proposed price points.

Based on the product to be constructed and the factors discussed above, we expect 15th Street Development Phase II to lease the market rate and LHTC units without PBRA at an average of 12 units per month; we expect the nine LIHTC units with PBRA to lease as quickly as applications can be processed. As the units with PBRA and the LIHTC/market rate units without PBRA will lease concurrently, the subject property will reach a stabilized occupancy of at least 93 percent within just over six months. Without PBRA on the nine LIHTC units, we would expect the subject to reach a stabilized occupancy of 93 percent within seven months.

G.� Impact on Existing Market

Given the strong rental market in the 15th Street Market Area and projected renter household growth over the next couple of years, we do not expect 15th Street Development Phase II to have negative impact on existing rental communities in the 15th Street Market Area including those with tax credits.

H.�Final Conclusions and Recommendations


Proposed

Renter Income

Qualification %

Large Household

Size Adjustment

(3+ Persons)

Total

DemandSupply

Net

Demand

Capture

RateAbsorption

Average

Market

Rent

Market Rents

Band

Proposed

Rents

50% Units $17,683 - $31,950

One Bedroom Units $17,683 - $23,000 12 8.2% 681 12 669 1.8% 2-3 months $684 $504-$1,153 $416* / $365

Two Bedroom Units $23,001 - $26,500 4 5.0% 413 0 413 1.0% 1-2 months $684 $504-$1,153 $486*

Three Bedroom Units $26,501 - $31,950 2 6.9% 32.7% 186 0 186 1.1% 1-2 months $684 $504-$1,153 $542*

60% Units $20,846 - $38,340

One Bedroom Units $20,846 - $26,000 15 7.7% 637 0 637 2.4% 3-4 months $684 $504-$1,153 $470

Two Bedroom Units $26,001 - $31,000 29 6.3% 523 0 523 5.5% 6-7 months $796 $604-$1,420 $565

Three Bedroom Units $31,001 - $38,340 4 7.5% 32.7% 204 0 204 2.0% 1-2 months $860 $701-$759 $645

80% Units $30,137 - $51,120

Two Bedroom Units $30,137 - $38,000 12 8.4% 693 0 693 1.7% 4 months $796 $604-$1,420 $700

Three Bedroom Units $38,001 - $51,120 12 9.3% 32.7% 251 0 251 4.8% 4 months $860 $701-$759 $800

Project Total $17,683 - $51,120

50% Units $17,683 - $31,950 18 20.2% 1,665 12 1,653 1.1% 2-3 months

60% Units $20,846 - $38,340 48 21.6% 1,783 0 1,783 2.7% 6-7 months

LIHTC Units $17,683 - $38,340 66 26.5% 2,189 12 2,177 3.0% 6-7 months

80% Units $30,137 - $51,120 24 17.7% 1,459 0 1,459 1.6% 4 months

Total Units $17,683 - $51,120 90 35.5% 2,934 12 2,922 3.1% 6-7 months



� Page 59

Based on renter household growth, low affordability and demand capture rates, and strong rental market conditions, sufficient demand exists to support the proposed units at 15th Street Development Phase II. As such, RPRG believes that the proposed 15th Street Development Phase II will be able to successfully reach and maintain a stabilized occupancy of at least 93 percent following its entrance into the rental market. The subject property will be competitively positioned with the existing market rate and LIHTC communities in the 15th Street Market Area and the units will be well received by the target market. We recommend proceeding with the project as planned.

We do not believe that the proposed development of 15th Street Development Phase II will have a negative impact on the existing LIHTC communities in the market area.

Brett Welborn Tad Scepaniak

Analyst Principal

15th Street Development Phase II | Appendix 1 Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions

� Page 60

9.�APPENDIX 1 UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING

CONDITIONS

In conducting the analysis, we will make the following assumptions, except as otherwise noted in our report: 1. There are no zoning, building, safety, environmental or other federal, state or local laws, regulations or codes which would prohibit or impair the development, marketing or operation of the subject project in the manner contemplated in our report, and the subject project will be developed, marketed and operated in compliance with all applicable laws, regulations and codes. 2. No material changes will occur in (a) any federal, state or local law, regulation or code (including, without limitation, the Internal Revenue Code) affecting the subject project, or (b) any federal, state or local grant, financing or other program which is to be utilized in connection with the subject project. 3. The local, national and international economies will not deteriorate, and there will be no significant changes in interest rates or in rates of inflation or deflation. 4. The subject project will be served by adequate transportation, utilities and governmental facilities. 5. The subject project will not be subjected to any war, energy crisis, embargo, strike, earthquake, flood, fire or other casualty or act of God. 6. The subject project will be on the market at the time and with the product anticipated in our report, and at the price position specified in our report. 7. The subject project will be developed, marketed and operated in a highly professional manner. 8. No projects will be developed which will be in competition with the subject project, except as set forth in our report. 9. There are neither existing judgments nor any pending or threatened litigation, which could hinder the development, marketing or operation of the subject project.

15th Street Development Phase II | Appendix 1 Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions

� Page 61

The analysis will be subject to the following limiting conditions, except as otherwise noted in our report: 1. The analysis contained in this report necessarily incorporates numerous estimates and assumptions with respect to property performance, general and local business and economic conditions, the absence of material changes in the competitive environment and other matters. Some estimates or assumptions, however, inevitably will not materialize, and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur; therefore, actual results achieved during the period covered by our analysis will vary from our estimates and the variations may be material. 2. Our absorption estimates are based on the assumption that the product recommendations set forth in our report will be followed without material deviation. 3. All estimates of future dollar amounts are based on the current value of the dollar, without any allowance for inflation or deflation. 4. We have no responsibility for considerations requiring expertise in other fields. Such considerations include, but are not limited to, legal matters, environmental matters, architectural matters, geologic considerations, such as soils and seismic stability, and civil, mechanical, electrical, structural and other engineering matters. 5. Information, estimates and opinions contained in or referred to in our report, which we have obtained from sources outside of this office, are assumed to be reliable and have not been independently verified. 6. The conclusions and recommendations in our report are subject to these Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions and to any additional assumptions or conditions set forth in the body of our report.

� �

15th Street Development Phase II | Appendix 2 Analyst Certifications

� Page 62

10.� APPENDIX 2 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

�

I certify that, to the best of my knowledge and belief:

�� The statements of fact contained in this report are true and correct.

�� The reported analyses, opinions, and conclusions are limited only by the reported

assumptions and limiting conditions, and is my personal, unbiased professional analyses,

opinions, and conclusions.

�� I have no present or prospective interest in the property that is the subject of this report,

and I have no personal interest or bias with respect to the parties involved.

�� My compensation is not contingent on an action or event resulting from the analysis,

opinions, or conclusions in, or the use of, this report.

�� The market study was not based on tax credit approval or approval of a loan. My

compensation is not contingent upon the reporting of a predetermined demand that

favors the cause of the client, the attainment of a stipulated result, or the occurrence of

a subsequent event.

�� My analyses, opinions, and conclusions were developed, and this report has been

prepared, in conformity with the requirements of the Code of Professional Ethics and the

Standards of Professional Practice as set forth in the Uniform Standards of Professional

Appraisal Practice (USPAP) as adopted by the Appraisal Standards Board of the Appraisal

Foundation.

�� To the best of my knowledge, the market can support the proposed project as shown in

the study. I understand that any misrepresentation of this statement may result in the

denial of further participation in DCA’s rental housing programs.

�� DCA may rely on the representation made in the market study provided and this

document is assignable to other lenders that are parties to the DCA loan transaction.

__________________

Brett Welborn Tad Scepaniak

Analyst Principal

Real Property Research Group, Inc. Real Property Research Group, Inc.

�

Warning: Title 18 U.S.C. 1001, provides in part that whoever knowingly and willfully makes or uses a document containing

any false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or entry, in any manner in the jurisdiction of any department or agency of the

United States, shall be fined not more than $10,000 or imprisoned for not more than five years or both.

15th Street Development Phase II | Appendix 3 NCHMA Certification

� Page 63

11.� APPENDIX 3 NCHMA CERTIFICATION

This market study has been prepared by Real Property Research Group, Inc., a member in good standing

of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA). This study has been prepared in

conformance with the standards adopted by NCHMA for the market analysts’ industry. These standards

include the Standard Definitions of Key Terms Used in Market Studies for Affordable Housing Projects and

Model Content Standards for the Content of Market Studies for Affordable Housing Projects. These

Standards are designed to enhance the quality of market studies and to make them easier to prepare,

understand, and use by market analysts and by the end users. These Standards are voluntary only, and no

legal responsibility regarding their use is assumed by the National Council of Housing Market Analysts.

Real Property Research Group, Inc. is duly qualified and experienced in providing market analysis for

Affordable Housing. The company’s principals participate in NCHMA educational and information sharing

programs to maintain the highest professional standards and state-of-the-art knowledge. Real Property

Research Group, Inc. is an independent market analyst. No principal or employee of Real Property

Research Group, Inc. has any financial interest whatsoever in the development for which this analysis has

been undertaken.

While the document specifies Real Property Research Group, Inc., the certification is always signed by the

individual completing the study and attesting to the certification.

Real Property Research Group, Inc.

________Tad Scepaniak___________ Name

__________Principal_____________

Title

______ _ May 5, 2016___________

Date

15th Street Development Phase II | Appendix 4 Analyst Resumes

� Page 64

12.� APPENDIX 4 ANALYST RESUMES

ROBERT M. LEFENFELD

Mr. Lefenfeld is the Managing Principal of the firm with over 30 years of experience in the field of residential market research. Before founding Real Property Research Group in February, 2001, Bob served as an officer of research subsidiaries of the accounting firm of Reznick Fedder & Silverman and Legg Mason. Between 1998 and 2001, Bob was Managing Director of RF&S Realty Advisors, conducting market studies throughout the United States on rental and for sale projects. From 1987 to 1995, Bob served as Senior Vice President of Legg Mason Realty Group, managing the firm’s consulting practice and serving as publisher of a Mid-Atlantic residential data service, Housing Market Profiles. Prior to joining Legg Mason, Bob spent ten years with the Baltimore Metropolitan Council as a housing economist. Bob also served as Research Director for Regency Homes between 1995 and 1998, analyzing markets throughout the Eastern United States and evaluating the company’s active building operation.

Bob oversees the execution and completion of all of the firm’s research assignments, ranging from a strategic assessment of new development and building opportunities throughout a region to the development and refinement of a particular product on a specific site. He combines extensive experience in the real estate industry with capabilities in database development and information management. Over the years, he has developed a series of information products and proprietary databases serving real estate professionals.

Bob has lectured and written extensively on the subject of residential real estate market analysis. He has served as a panel member, speaker, and lecturer at events held by the National Association of Homebuilders, the National Council on Seniors’ Housing and various local homebuilder associations. Bob serves as a visiting professor for the Graduate Programs in Real Estate Development, School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation, University of Maryland College Park. He has served as National Chair of the National Council of Affordable Housing Market Analysts (NCAHMA) and is currently a board member of the Baltimore chapter of Lambda Alpha Land Economics Society.

Areas of Concentration:

Strategic Assessments: Mr. Lefenfeld has conducted numerous corridor analyses throughout the

United States to assist building and real estate companies in evaluating development opportunities.

Such analyses document demographic, economic, competitive, and proposed development activity

by submarket and discuss opportunities for development.

Feasibility Analysis: Mr. Lefenfeld has conducted feasibility studies for various types of residential

developments for builders and developers. Subjects for these analyses have included for-sale single-

family and townhouse developments, age-restricted rental and for-sale developments, large multi-

product PUDs, urban renovations and continuing care facilities for the elderly.

Information Products: Bob has developed a series of proprietary databases to assist clients in monitoring growth trends. Subjects of these databases have included for sale housing, pipeline information, and rental communities. Information compiled is committed to a Geographic Information System (GIS), facilitating the comprehensive integration of data. Education: Master of Urban and Regional Planning; The George Washington University.

Bachelor of Arts - Political Science; Northeastern University.


� Page 65

TAD SCEPANIAK Tad Scepaniak directs the Atlanta office of Real Property Research Group and leads the firm’s affordable housing practice. Tad directs the firm’s efforts in the southeast and south central United States and has worked extensively in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Iowa, and Michigan. He specializes in the preparation of market feasibility studies for rental housing communities, including market-rate apartments developed under the HUD 221(d)(4) program and affordable housing built under the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program. Along with work for developer clients, Tad is the key contact for research contracts with the North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, and Iowa Housing Finance agencies. Tad is also responsible for development and implementation of many of the firm’s automated systems. Tad is Vice Chair of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA) and previously served as the Co-Chair of Standards Committee. He has taken a lead role in the development of the organization's Standard Definitions and Recommended Market Study Content, and he has authored and co-authored white papers on market areas, derivation of market rents, and selection of comparable properties. Tad is also a founding member of the Atlanta chapter of the Lambda Alpha Land Economics Society. Areas of Concentration: Low Income Tax Credit Rental Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has worked extensively with the Low Income Tax Credit program throughout the United States, with special emphasis on the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. Senior Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has conducted feasibility analysis for a variety of senior oriented rental housing. The majority of this work has been under the Low Income Tax Credit program; however his experience includes assisted living facilities and market rate senior rental communities. Market Rate Rental Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has conducted various projects for developers of market rate rental housing. The studies produced for these developers are generally used to determine the rental housing needs of a specific submarket and to obtain financing. Public Housing Authority Consultation: Tad has worked with Housing Authorities throughout the United States to document trends rental and for sale housing market trends to better understand redevelopment opportunities. He has completed studies examining development opportunities for housing authorities through the Choice Neighborhood Initiative or other programs in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Tennessee. Education: Bachelor of Science – Marketing; Berry College – Rome, Georgia


� Page 66

BRETT WELBORN Analyst�

Brett Welborn entered the field of Real Estate Market Research in 2008, joining Real Property Research Group’s (RPRG) Atlanta office as a Research Associate upon college graduation. During Brett’s time as a Research Associate, he gathered economic, demographic, and competitive data for market feasibility analyses and other consulting projects completed by the firm. Through his experience, Brett has progressed to serve as Analyst for RPRG.

Areas of Concentration: Low Income Housing Tax Credit Rental Housing: Brett has worked with the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program, evaluating general occupancy and senior oriented developments for State allocating agencies, lenders, and developers. His work with the LIHTC program has spanned a range of project types, including newly constructed communities and rehabilitations. In addition to market analysis responsibilities, Brett has also assisted in the development of research tools for the organization. Education: Bachelor of Business Administration – Real Estate; University of Georgia, Athens, GA

15th Street Development Phase II | Appendix 5 DCA Checklist

� Page 67

13.� APPENDIX 5 DCA CHECKLIST

I understand that by initializing (or checking) the following items, I am stating that those items are included and/or addressed in the report. If an item is not checked, a full explanation is included in the report. A list listing of page number(s) is equivalent to check or initializing.

The report was written according to DCA's market study requirements, that the information included is accurate and that the report can be relied upon by DCA as a true assessment of the low-income housing rental market.

I also certify that I have inspected the subject property as well as all rent comparables.

Signed: Date: May 3, 2016

Brett Welborn

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15th Street Development Phase II | Appendix 6 NCHMA Checklist

� Page 72

14.� APPENDIX 6 NCHMA CHECKLIST

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15th Street Development Phase II | Appendix 7 Rental Community Profiles

� Page 75

15.� APPENDIX 7 RENTAL COMMUNITY PROFILES

Community Address Phone Number Date Surveyed Contact

Antebellum TH 2402 Antebellum Dr. 706-798-6898 4/7/2016 Property Manager

Canalside 1399 Walton Way 706-426-7742 5/4/2016 Property Manager

Cedar Ridge 517 Richmond Hill Rd. W. 706-793-8415 4/4/2016 Property Manager

Cedarwood 527 Richmond Hill Rd. W. 706-790-1003 4/7/2016 Property Manager

Forest Brook 3122 Damascus Rd. 706-738-8440 5/4/2016 Property Manager

Georgian Place 1700 Valley Park Ct. 706-733-7829 5/4/2016 Property Manager

Glenwood I & II 2534 & 2564 Lumpkin Rd. 706-814-5862 4/18/2016 Property Manager

Heritage 3205 Heritage Cir. 706-250-5323 5/4/2016 Property Manager

Hickman Arms 1011 Hickman Rd. 803-215-1940 5/4/2016 Property Manager

High Point Crossing 524 Richmond Hill Rd W. 706-793-3697 4/4/2016 Property Manager

Lenox of Augusta 3211 Wrightsboro Rd. 706-736-8428 5/4/2016 Property Manager

Magnolia Park 2133 Vandivere Rd. 706-738-9912 5/4/2016 Property Manager

Maxwell House 1002 Greene St. 706-724-1927 5/4/2016 Property Manager

Norris Place 1931 Murphy Rd. 706-733-7277 5/4/2016 Property Manager

Providence Place 2205 Southgate Dr. 706-793-2664 4/7/2016 Property Manager

Regency Vil lage 2810 Thomas Ln. 706-790-9161 4/7/2016 Property Manager

Sierra Pointe 1814 Fayettevil le Dr. 706-945-1149 5/4/2016 Property Manager

Singleton 2451 Damscus Rd. 706-738-9106 5/4/2016 Property Manager

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