15th street development phase i - georgia€¦ · 15th street development phase i will be located...

100
Market Feasibility Analysis 15th Street Development Phase I Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia Prepared for: Walton Communities Project # - 2015-4440 Effective Date: April 17, 2015 Site Inspection: April 17, 2015

Upload: others

Post on 20-Sep-2020

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

Market Feasibility Analysis

15th Street Development Phase I

Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia

Prepared for:

Walton Communities

Project # - 2015-4440

Effective Date: April 17, 2015

Site Inspection: April 17, 2015

Page 2: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Table of Contents

Page i

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................. ITABLES, FIGURES AND MAPS ................................................................................................ IIIEXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................... VINTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................... 1A. Overview of Subject..............................................................................................................................................1B. Purpose of Report.................................................................................................................................................1C. Format of Report ..................................................................................................................................................1D. Client, Intended User, and Intended Use .............................................................................................................1E. Applicable Requirements......................................................................................................................................1F. Scope of Work ......................................................................................................................................................1G. Report Limitations ................................................................................................................................................2

PROJECT DESCRIPTION .......................................................................................................... 3A. Project Overview ..................................................................................................................................................3B. Project Type and Target Market ...........................................................................................................................3C. Building Types and Placement..............................................................................................................................3D. Detailed Project Description.................................................................................................................................3

1. Project Description.......................................................................................................................................32. Other Proposed Uses ...................................................................................................................................43. Proposed Timing of Development ...............................................................................................................4

SITE AND NEIGHBORHOOD ANALYSIS .................................................................................... 6A. Site Analysis ..........................................................................................................................................................6

1. Site Location.................................................................................................................................................62. Existing Uses.................................................................................................................................................63. Size, Shape, and Topography .......................................................................................................................64. General Description of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site .................................................................65. Specific Identification of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site...............................................................6

B. Neighborhood Analysis.......................................................................................................................................101. General Description of Neighborhood .......................................................................................................102. Neighborhood Planning Activities..............................................................................................................103. Public Safety...............................................................................................................................................10

C. Site Visibility and Accessibility ............................................................................................................................121. Visibility ......................................................................................................................................................122. Vehicular Access.........................................................................................................................................123. Availability of Public Transit and Inter-Regional Transit ............................................................................124. Accessibility Improvements under Construction and Planned ..................................................................125. Environmental Concerns ............................................................................................................................12

D. Residential Support Network..............................................................................................................................131. Key Facilities and Services near the Subject Site........................................................................................132. Essential Services .......................................................................................................................................133. Commercial Goods and Services ................................................................................................................154. Recreational Amenities ..............................................................................................................................155. Location of Low Income Housing ...............................................................................................................15

E. Site Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................................15

MARKET AREA DEFINITION .................................................................................................. 16A. Introduction........................................................................................................................................................16B. Delineation of Market Area ................................................................................................................................16

ECONOMIC CONTENT .......................................................................................................... 18A. Introduction........................................................................................................................................................18B. Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment..................................................................................18

1. Trends in County Labor Force and Resident Employment .........................................................................18

Page 3: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Table of Contents

Page i i

4. Trends in County Unemployment Rate......................................................................................................18C. Commutation Patterns .......................................................................................................................................18D. At-Place Employment .........................................................................................................................................20

1. Trends in Total At-Place Employment........................................................................................................202. At-Place Employment by Industry Sector...................................................................................................213. Major Employers ........................................................................................................................................224. Recent Economic Expansions and Contractions ........................................................................................235. Conclusions on Local Economics ................................................................................................................24

DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS.................................................................................................... 25A. Introduction and Methodology ..........................................................................................................................25B. Trends in Population and Households ................................................................................................................25

1. Recent Past Trends.....................................................................................................................................252. Projected Trends ........................................................................................................................................253. Building Permit Trends...............................................................................................................................254. Senior Household Trends ...........................................................................................................................27

C. Demographic Characteristics..............................................................................................................................271. Age Distribution and Household Type .......................................................................................................272. Renter Household Characteristics..............................................................................................................283. Income Characteristics ...............................................................................................................................30

COMPETITIVE HOUSING ANALYSIS....................................................................................... 33A. Introduction and Sources of Information ...........................................................................................................33B. Overview of Market Area Housing Stock............................................................................................................33C. Survey of Senior Rental Communities ................................................................................................................34

1. Introduction to the Senior Rental Housing Survey.....................................................................................342. Location......................................................................................................................................................353. Age of Communities...................................................................................................................................364. Structure Type............................................................................................................................................365. Size of Communities...................................................................................................................................366. Vacancy Rates ............................................................................................................................................367. Rent Concessions .......................................................................................................................................368. Absorption History .....................................................................................................................................36

D. Analysis of Rental Pricing and Product ...............................................................................................................371. Payment of Utility Costs.............................................................................................................................372. Unit Features..............................................................................................................................................373. Parking .......................................................................................................................................................374. Community Amenities................................................................................................................................375. Distribution of Units by Bedroom Type......................................................................................................386. Unit Sizes....................................................................................................................................................387. Effective Rents ...........................................................................................................................................38

E. Survey of General Occupancy Rental Communities ...........................................................................................391. Introduction to the Rental Housing Survey................................................................................................392. Location......................................................................................................................................................393. Size of Communities...................................................................................................................................394. Age of Communities...................................................................................................................................395. Structure Type............................................................................................................................................396. Vacancy Rates ............................................................................................................................................397. Rent Concessions .......................................................................................................................................398. Absorption History .....................................................................................................................................409. Unit Distribution.........................................................................................................................................4110. Effective Rents ...........................................................................................................................................4111. DCA Average Market Rent .........................................................................................................................42

F. Interviews ...........................................................................................................................................................43G. Existing Low Income Rental Housing ..................................................................................................................43H. Multi-Family Pipeline..........................................................................................................................................44

Page 4: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Tables, Figures and Maps

Page i i i

I. Housing Authority Data ......................................................................................................................................44J. Impact of Abandoned, Vacant, or Foreclosed Homes ........................................................................................45

FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................. 46A. Key Findings ........................................................................................................................................................46

1. Site and Neighborhood Analysis ................................................................................................................462. Economic Context ......................................................................................................................................463. Population and Household Trends.............................................................................................................474. Demographic Trends ..................................................................................................................................475. Competitive Housing Analysis ....................................................................................................................48

B. Affordability Analysis ..........................................................................................................................................491. Methodology..............................................................................................................................................492. Affordability Analysis .................................................................................................................................503. Conclusions on Affordability ......................................................................................................................52

C. Demand Estimates and Capture Rates ...............................................................................................................521. Methodology..............................................................................................................................................522. Demand Analysis ........................................................................................................................................52

D. Product Evaluation .............................................................................................................................................54E. Price Position ......................................................................................................................................................55F. Absorption Estimate ...........................................................................................................................................57G. Impact on Existing Market..................................................................................................................................57H. Final Conclusions and Recommendations ..........................................................................................................58

APPENDIX 1 UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS ............................... 59APPENDIX 2 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ............................................................................... 61APPENDIX 3 NCHMA CERTIFICATION.................................................................................... 62APPENDIX 4 ANALYST RESUMES ......................................................................................... 63APPENDIX 5 DCA CHECKLIST ............................................................................................... 65APPENDIX 6 NCHMA CHECKLIST........................................................................................... 70APPENDIX 7 RENTAL COMMUNITY PROFILES ....................................................................... 73

TABLES, FIGURES AND MAPS

Table 1 15th Street Development Phase I Detailed Project Summary .........................................................................5Table 2 Key Facilities and Services..............................................................................................................................13Table 3 Labor Force and Unemployment Rates..........................................................................................................19Table 4 2009-2013 Commuting Patterns, 15th Street Market Area............................................................................19Table 5 Major Employers, Augusta Area....................................................................................................................22Table 6 Announced Layoffs/Closures and Expansions, Richmond County, 2012-2015..............................................24Table 7 Population and Household Projections..........................................................................................................26Table 8 Building Permits by Structure Type, Richmond County .................................................................................26Table 9 Senior Household Projections, 15th Street Market Area...............................................................................27Table 10 2015 Age Distribution ..................................................................................................................................28Table 11 2010 Households by Household Type...........................................................................................................28Table 12 Households by Tenure.................................................................................................................................29Table 13 Senior Households by Tenure .....................................................................................................................29Table 14 Renter Households by Age of Householder ................................................................................................30Table 15 2010 Renter Households by Household Size ................................................................................................30Table 16 2015 Household Income ...............................................................................................................................31Table 17 Household Income of Householders 55+, 2015 and 2017 ............................................................................31Table 18 2015 Senior Household Income by Tenure...................................................................................................32Table 19 Renter Occupied Unit by Structure Type .....................................................................................................33Table 20 Dwelling Units by Year Built and Tenure......................................................................................................34Table 21 Value of Owner Occupied Housing Stock......................................................................................................34

Page 5: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Tables, Figures and Maps

Page iv

Table 22 Senior Rental Summary.................................................................................................................................36Table 23 Senior Summary, Deep Subsidy ....................................................................................................................37Table 24 Utility Arrangement and Unit Features – Senior Rental Communities .......................................................38Table 25 Senior Rental Communities - Community Amenities...................................................................................38Table 26 Rental Summary, General Occupancy Communities ....................................................................................41Table 27 Unit Distribution, Size, and Pricing, General Occupancy Communities ........................................................42Table 28 Average Market Rent, Most Comparable Communities ...............................................................................42Table 29 Average Market Rent and Rent Advantage Summary .................................................................................43Table 30 Subsidized Communities, 15th Street Market Area.....................................................................................43Table 31 Foreclosure Rate and Recent Foreclosure Activity, ZIP Code 30901 ...........................................................45Table 32 2016 Total and Renter Income Distribution, Senior (55+) Households .......................................................49Table 33 LIHTC Income and Rent Limits, Augusta-Richmond County MSA ...............................................................50Table 34 2016 15th Street Development Phase I Affordability Analysis ....................................................................51Table 35 Substandard and Cost Burdened Calculations ............................................................................................53Table 36 Senior Homeowner Conversion ...................................................................................................................53Table 37 DCA Demand by Income Level ....................................................................................................................54Table 38 DCA Demand by Floor Plan .........................................................................................................................54

Figure 1 15th Street Development Phase I Site Plan .....................................................................................................4Figure 2 Satellite Image of Subject Site .........................................................................................................................8Figure 3 Views of Subject Site........................................................................................................................................8Figure 4 Views of Surrounding Land Uses .....................................................................................................................9Figure 5 At-Place Employment ...................................................................................................................................20Figure 6 Total Employment by Sector, 2014(Q3)........................................................................................................21Figure 7 Change in Employment by Sector 2001-2014(Q3)........................................................................................22Figure 8 Price Position – 15th Street Development Phase I .........................................................................................56

Map 1 Site Location ......................................................................................................................................................7Map 2 2013 CrimeRisk, Subject Site and Surrounding Areas .....................................................................................11Map 3 Location of Key Facilities and Services ............................................................................................................14Map 4 15th Street Market Area..................................................................................................................................17Map 5 Major Employers ..............................................................................................................................................23Map 6 Surveyed Senior Rental Communities .............................................................................................................35Map 7 Surveyed General Occupancy Rental Communities ........................................................................................40Map 8 Subsidized Rental Communities ......................................................................................................................44

Page 6: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I Executive Summary

Page v

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Walton Communities has retained Real Property Research Group, Inc. (RPRG) to conduct acomprehensive market feasibility analysis of 15th Street Development Phase I, a proposed seniororiented rental community in Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia. As proposed, 15th StreetDevelopment Phase I will be financed in part with nine percent Low Income Housing Tax Credits(LIHTC) allocated by the Georgia Department of Community Affairs (DCA) and will contain 80 totalunits including 64 LIHTC and 16 market rate units.

1. Project Description

15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community, which was recently demolished. The site is located on the east side of 15th Street north of Swanee Quintet Boulevard and south of downtown Augusta. 15th Street Development Phase I will include 64 LIHTC senior oriented units targeting households with householder age 55+ including 12 units with PBRA. Sixteen units will be market rate without income or rent restrictions.

15th Street Development Phase I will offer 24 one bedroom units with 748 square feet and 56 two bedroom units with 1,154 square feet.

A detailed summary of the subject property, including the rent and unit configuration, is shown in the table below.

In-unit features offered at the subject property will include an oven/range, refrigerator,dishwasher, garbage disposal, ceiling fans, and walk-in closets. These unit features arecomparable or superior to all surveyed rental communities in the 15th Street Market Area,including those with LIHTC units.

15th Street Development Phase I’s community amenity package will include a communityroom, fitness center, and arts and crafts room. This amenity package will be competitivewith surveyed rental communities in the 15th Street Market Area and will be comparable orsuperior to all existing senior LIHTC communities.

2. Site Description / Evaluation

The subject site is a suitable location for affordable rental housing as it is compatible withsurrounding land uses and has ample access to amenities, services, and transportation arteries.

The subject site is located in an established residential neighborhood southwest ofdowntown Augusta.

The subject site is located within close proximity to transportation arteries, publictransportation, commercial development, and employment concentrations.

Unit Mix/Rents

Type Bed BathIncome

TargetQuantity

Unit Sq.

Feet

Developer

Rent

Rent/Sq.

Foot

Mid-Rise 1 1 60%/ACC 12 748 $300 $0.40

Mid-Rise 1 1 60% 12 748 $500 $0.67

Mid-Rise 2 2 60% 40 1,154 $585 $0.51

Mid-Rise 2 2 80% 16 1,154 $685 $0.59

Total/Average 80

Rents include trash removal.

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 7: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I Executive Summary

Page vi

The subject site is suitable for the proposed development. No negative land uses wereidentified at the time of the site visit that would affect the proposed development’s viabilityin the marketplace.

The redevelopment of a former and recently demolished public housing community on thesubject site will improve the condition of the immediate neighborhood.

3. Market Area Definition

The 15th Street Market Area includes the census tracts generally south of downtownAugusta along 15th Street. Although a new housing community may attract residents frombeyond this market area, the market area was restricted to the immediate area in an effortto be conservative. The neighborhoods included in the 15th Street Market Area are thosemost comparable with the area immediately surrounding the subject site.. The market areadoes not extend further to the east given the sizes and shapes of the census tracts in thisportion of the county are large. The area immediately east of the market is sparselydeveloped with a large number of retention ponds and rail yards. The market area also doesnot extend further to the north or west as these portions of Augusta are newer and notdirectly comparable to the subject’s immediate neighborhood.

The boundaries of the 15th Street Market Area and their approximate distance from thesubject site are Savannah River to the north (2.0 miles), Old Savannah River to the east (1.1miles), Interstate 520 to the south (4.1 miles), and Jack Road/Sibley Road to the west (2.9miles).

4. Community Demographic Data

The 15th Street Market Area lost population and households between the 2000 and 2010 censuscounts while the county added both during the same period. Both areas are projected to growthrough 2017 with the county’s rate of growth exceeding the market area. Senior household projecthas significantly outpaced overall household growth.

Between 2000 and 2010 Census counts, the population of the 15th Street Market Areadecreased by 8.9 percent, from 64,057 to 58,377 people (Table 7) for an annual decrease of0.9 percent or 568 people. During the same period, the number of households in the 15thStreet Market Area decreased from 26,769 to 24,760 households (7.5 percent total loss) oran annual loss of 201 households (0.8 percent).

By comparison, the population of Richmond County expanded by 0.4 percent from 2000 to2010 and the number of households increased by 4.1 percent overall and 0.4 percentannually.

Based on Esri projections, the 15th Street Market Area’s population decreased by twopeople from 2010 to 2015 while the number of households grew by 120. Esri furtherprojects that the market area’s population will increase by 17 people between 2015 and2017, bringing the total population to 58,392 people in 2017. The annual gain over thisperiod will be 8 people and 25 households.

Senior households with householder age 55 and older increased by 786 households or 7.4percent between 2010 and 2015. Senior household growth is projected to continue withannual gains of 147 through 2017, reaching 11,654 households with householder 55+ by2017.

The population of the 15th Street Market Area is older than Richmond County with medianages of 35 in the market area and 33 in the county. Adults (35-61 years) comprise the largest

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 8: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I Executive Summary

Page vi i

percentage of the population in both areas at 31.6 percent in the market area and 32.1percent in the county. Children/Youth under the age of 20 account for roughly 27 percentof the populations in both areas. Seniors age 55 and older comprise 28.7 percent of peoplein the market area and 25.1 percent in the county.

In 2010, a higher percentage of 15th Street Market Area’s households rented (56.7 percent)compared to Richmond County (48.8 percent). Both areas lost owner households and gainedrenters between the 2000 and 2010 census counts. Renter percentages are projected toincrease to 59.9 percent in the market area and 49.0 percent in the county by 2017.

Senior renter percentages are estimated at 41.6 percent in the market area and 28.8percent in the county in 2015.

Renter householders are generally older in the 15th Street Market Area than RichmondCounty as young adult renters (25-44 years) comprise 41 percent of the market area’s renterhouseholds and 49.2 percent of the county’s renter households. Roughly one-third of themarket area’s renter households are older adults age 45-64 and 16.1 percent are age 65 andolder.

As of 2010, 66.3 percent of all renter households in the 15th Street Market Area containedone or two persons compared to 61.1 percent in Richmond County. Renter households withthree or four persons accounted for 24.7 percent of the households in the market area and28.1 percent in the county. Large households (5+ persons) accounted for 9.0 percent ofrenter households in the 15th Street Market Area and 10.8 percent of renter households inRichmond County.

The median income by tenure in the 15th Street Market Area among senior households age55 and older is $18,287 for renters and $28,693 for owner households. Roughly two-thirdsof all renter householders in the 15th Street Market Area earn less than $25,000 perincluding 41.9 percent earning less than $15,000. Nearly one-quarter of senior (55+) renterhouseholds in the market area earn $25,000 to $49,999.

5. Economic Data

Richmond County’s economy is stable and has shown signs of recent growth.

The unemployment rate in Richmond County increased dramatically from 7.2 percent in2008 to 10.6 percent in 2010 compared to a state high of 10.2 percent and a national high of8.8 percent. The unemployment rate in all three areas have decreased since 2010 with 2014unemployment rates of 8.7 percent in the county, 7.2 percent in the state, and 6.2 percentin the country.

Richmond County’s At-Place Employment has decreased significantly since 2000 with netlosses in seven of 11 years between 2000 and 2011. The net loss in At Place Employmentduring this period was 8,392 jobs or 7.8 percent. At Place Employment in the county hasshown recent signs of stabilization with a net gain of 4,357 jobs since 2010 including 2,374 inthe first three quarters of 2014.

The Government sector accounts for 24 percent of the jobs in Richmond County comparedto 15.4 percent of jobs nationally. The next largest sectors in Richmond County areEducation-Health and Trade-Transportation-Utilities with 17.2 percent and 15.3 percent ofthe county’s job base, respectively.

The subject site is located within close proximity to employment concentrations includingarea retailers, public schools, and medical providers. Most major employers andemployment concentrations are within five to ten miles of the subject site. As a senior

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 9: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I Executive Summary

Page vi i i

community, local economics are less of a factor for the proposed units at the subjectproperty.

6. Project Specific Affordability and Demand Analysis:

15th Street Development Phase I will comprise 64 LIHTC units including 12 units with PBRAthrough ACC/Public Housing and 16 market rate units. As the rents for these units are muchlower than standard LIHTC units, the PBRA units are evaluated independently.

Affordability capture rates by floor plan range from 0.8 percent to 9.8 percent among seniorrenter households. By AMI level, renter capture rates are 0.8 percent for 60 percentLIHTC/PBRA units, 6.3 percent for 60 percent units, 2.7 percent for market rate units, and3.9 percent for all units.

All affordability capture rates are within reasonable and achievable levels for a seniorcommunity.

Based on the proposed rents and income targeting, 2,060 renter households are age andincome qualified for the proposed units.

15th Street Development Phase I's DCA demand capture rates by AMI level are 1.4 percentfor 60 percent/PBRA units, 10.7 percent for 60 percent units, 4.6 percent for market rateunits, and 6.6 percent for all units. All of these capture rates are well below DCA’smandated threshold of 30 percent and indicate sufficient demand to support the proposeddevelopment.

7. Competitive Rental Analysis

RPRG surveyed four senior rental households including two LIHTC communities and two deeplysubsidized communities. To provide additional context, we also surveyed 12 general occupancycommunities including four LIHTC communities. Vacancy rates among senior communities are verylow and general occupancy communities are also performing well.

The two senior LIHTC communities reported only two of 248 units vacant, a rate of 0.8percent. The two deeply subsidized senior communities had one of 175 units vacant, a rateof 0.6 percent.

The average rent among senior LIHTC communities was $473 for one bedroom units and$577 for two bedroom units including LIHTC units at 50 percent and 50 percent. The averageunit sizes were 662 square feet for one bedroom units and 865 square feet for two bedroomunits, resulting in rents per square foot of $0.71 and $0.67, respectively.

General occupancy communities reported an aggregate vacancy rate of 5.5 percent,although this rate is elevated due to an LIHTC community with increased vacancy due to abroken elevator in a high-rise community. The vacancy rate without this community is 2.3percent.

The average rent among the general occupancy communities is $453 for one bedroom unitsand $552 for two bedroom units.

The “average market rent” among comparable communities is $675 for one bedroom unitsand $768 for two bedroom units. All of the subject property’s proposed rents are belowthese average market rents with rent advantages of 10.8 percent to 55.6 percent for LIHTCunits. The overall market advantage is 26.3 percent.

No new senior rental communities were identified in the market area.

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 10: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I Executive Summary

Page ix

8. Absorption/Stabilization Estimate

Based on the product to be constructed, market conditions, and demand estimates, weexpect 15th Street Development Phase I’s LIHTC/market units to lease-up at a rate of tenunits per month, resulting in a lease up period of roughly eight months.

Given the very low senior vacancies at LIHTC communities in the 15th Street Market Areaand projected senior household growth over the next five years, we do not expect 15thStreet Development Phase I to have negative impact on existing rental communities in the15th Street Market Area including those with tax credits.

9. Overall Conclusion / Recommendation

Based on senior household growth, acceptable affordability and demand capture rates, and lowsenior vacancy rates, sufficient demand exists to support the proposed units at 15th StreetDevelopment Phase I. As such, RPRG believes that the proposed 15th Street Development Phase Iwill be able to successfully reach and maintain a stabilized occupancy of at least 93 percentfollowing its entrance into the rental market. The subject property will be competitively positionedwith existing market rate and LIHTC communities in the 15th Street Market Area and the units willbe well received by the target market. We recommend proceeding with the project as planned.

We do not believe that the proposed development of the units at 15th Street Development Phase Iwill have a negative impact on the existing LIHTC communities in the market area.

10. DCA Summary Tables:

Income/Unit Size Income LimitsUnits

Proposed

Renter Income

Qualification %

Total

DemandSupply

Net

Demand

Capture

RateAbsorption

Average

Market Rent

Market Rents

Band

Proposed

Rents

60% PBRA $12,690 - $25,200One Bedroom Units $12,690 - $25,200 12 30.3% 860 0 860 1.4% 4 months $675 $534-$1,140 $300

60% Units $18,690 - $26,880One Bedroom Units $18,690 - $25,200 28 9.7% 275 0 275 10.2% 8 months $675 $610-$1,335 $500Two Bedroom Units $22,350 - $26,880 40 5.3% 151 0 151 26.4% 8 months $768 $610-$1,335 $585

80% Units $25,350 - $35,840Two Bedroom Units $25,350 - $35,840 16 12.2% 347 0 347 4.6% 8 months $768 $610-$1,335 $685

Project Total $12,690 - $35,84060% PBRA $12,690 - $25,200 12 30.3% 860 0 860 1.4% 2 months60% Units $18,690 - $26,880 52 17.1% 486 0 486 10.7% 8 months80% Units $25,350 - $35,840 16 12.2% 347 0 347 4.6% 8 months

LIHTC Units $12,690 - $26,880 64 32.3% 918 0 918 7.0% 8 monthsTotal Units $12,690 - $35,840 80 42.7% 1,213 0 1,213 6.6% 8 months

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 11: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I Executive Summary

Page x

SUMMARY TABLE:

Development Name: 15th Street Development Phase I Total # Units: 80

Location: 15th Street, Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia # LIHTC Units: 80

PMA Boundary: N- Savannah River, E – Old Savannah Road, S – I-520, W – Jack Rd/Sibley Road

Farthest Boundary Distance to Subject: 4.1 miles

RENTAL HOUSING STOCK – (found on pages 34-42)

Type # Properties Total Units Vacant Units AverageOccupancy*

All Rental Housing (reportingoccupancy)

14 2,204 112 95.0%

Market-Rate Housing 8 1,008 55 95.5%

Assisted/Subsidized Housing not toinclude LIHTC

LIHTC 6 1,224 55 94.4%

Stabilized Comps 13 1,988 69 96.5%

Properties in construction & leaseup

Subject Development Average Market Rent Highest UnadjustedComp Rent

#Units

#Bedrooms

#Baths Size (SF)

ProposedTenant Rent

Per Unit Per SF Advantage Per Unit Per SF

12 1 1 748 $300 $675 $0.75 55.6% $1,140 $1.86

12 1 1 748 $500 $675 $0.75 25.9% $1,140 $1.86

40 2 2 1,154 $585 $768 $0.63 23.8% $1,335 $1.35

16 2 2 1,154 $685 $768 $0.63 10.8$ $1,335 $1.35

DEMOGRAPHIC DATA (found on pages 25-27, 30, 49-52)

2010 2015 2017

Income-Qualified Renter HHs(LIHTC)

1,465 33.3% 1,575 33.3% 1,542 31.3%

Income-Qualified Renter HHs (MR) 540 12.3% 581 12.3% 599 12.1%

TARGETED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD DEMAND (found on page 52-54)

Type of Demand 60%/PBRA 60% MTK LIHTC Overall

Renter Household Growth 54 31 22 58 77

Existing Households (Overburd + Substand) 712 403 288 760 1,004

Homeowner Conversion 17 10 7 18 24

Total Primary Market Demand 784 443 316 836 1,105

Secondary Market Demand 17 10 7 18 24

Total Demand 860 486 347 918 1,213

Less Comparable/Competitive Supply 0 0 0 0 0

Adjusted Income-qualified Renter HHs 860 486 347 918 1,213

CAPTURE RATES (found on page 49-51)Targeted Population 60%/PBRA 60% MTK LIHTC Overall

Capture Rate 1.4% 10.7% 4.6% 7.0% 6.6%

Page 12: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Introduction

Page 1

INTRODUCTION

A. Overview of Subject

The subject of this report is 15th Street Development Phase I, the first phase of a proposed masterplanned community in Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia. The overall development will ultimatelycontain 240 general occupancy rental units and 150 senior oriented rental units. The subject of thismarket study is the initial phase, which will include 80 age-restricted units targeting households withhouseholder age 55 and older. Most (64) units will benefit from Low Income Housing Tax Creditsand target renter households earning at or below 60 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI),adjusted for household size. Twelve of the LIHTC units will have project based rental assistancethrough Public Housing/ACC funding. Sixteen units will be market rate without rent or incomerestrictions. 15th Street Development Phase I will replace the former Cherry Tree Public Housingcommunity, which has been demolished.

B. Purpose of Report

The purpose of this market study is to perform a market feasibility analysis through an examinationof the economic context, a demographic analysis of the defined market area, a competitive housinganalysis, a derivation of demand, and an affordability analysis.

C. Format of Report

The report format is comprehensive and conforms to DCA’s 2015 Market Study Manual. The marketstudy also considered the National Council of Housing Market Analysts’ (NCHMA) recommendedModel Content Standards and Market Study Index.

D. Client, Intended User, and Intended Use

The Client is Walton Communities. Along with the Client, the Intended Users are the AugustaHousing Authority, DCA, potential lenders, and investors.

E. Applicable Requirements

This market study is intended to conform to the requirements of the following:

DCA’s 2015 Market Study Manual. The National Council of Housing Market Analyst’s (NCHMA) Model Content Standards and

Market Study Index.

F. Scope of Work

To determine the appropriate scope of work for the assignment, we considered the intended use ofthe market study, the needs of the user, the complexity of the property, and other pertinent factors.Our concluded scope of work is described below:

Please refer to Appendix 5 and 6 for a detailed list of DCA and NCHMA requirements as wellas the corresponding pages of requirements within the report.

Tad Scepaniak (Principal) conducted a site visit on April 17, 2015.

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 13: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Introduction

Page 2

Primary information gathered through field and phone interviews was used throughout thevarious sections of this report. The interviewees included rental community propertymanagers and leasing agents. As part of our housing market research, RPRG contacted LoisSchmidt with the Augusta Planning Department and Sevi Roberson with the AugustaHousing Authority.

All pertinent information obtained was incorporated in the appropriate section(s) of thisreport.

G. Report Limitations

The conclusions reached in a market assessment are inherently subjective and should not be reliedupon as a determinative predictor of results that will actually occur in the marketplace. There canbe no assurance that the estimates made or assumptions employed in preparing this report will infact be realized or that other methods or assumptions might not be appropriate. The conclusionsexpressed in this report are as of the date of this report, and an analysis conducted as of anotherdate may require different conclusions. The actual results achieved will depend on a variety offactors, including the performance of management, the impact of changes in general and localeconomic conditions, and the absence of material changes in the regulatory or competitiveenvironment. Reference is made to the statement of Underlying Assumptions and LimitingConditions contained in Appendix I of this report.

Page 14: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Project Description

Page 3

PROJECT DESCRIPTION

A. Project Overview

15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community, which was recently demolished. The site is on the east side of 15th Street north of Swanee Quintet Boulevard and south of downtown Augusta. 15th Street Development Phase I will include 80 units reserved for households with householder age 55 and older. Income target will include 64 LIHTC units at 60 percent AMI including 12 with additional subsidies through Public Housing/ACC assistance, and 16 market rate units.

B. Project Type and Target Market

15th Street Development Phase I will target very low to moderate income households with householder age 55+. Given the age restriction and unit mix of one and two bedroom units, potential tenants include singles, couples, and roommates.

C. Building Types and Placement

15th Street Development Phase I will contain one newly constructed, three-story, mid-rise residential building. Construction characteristics will include wood frame with brick and Hardiplank siding exteriors.

The overall redevelopment of the Cherry Tree site will include a series of parking lots and access points from 15th Street, Swanee Quintet Boulevard, and Lee Beard Way. The senior buildings will be located in the western portion of the site with greenspace to the north and west. General occupancy units developed in later phases will border the senior buildings to the east and south. Access to the buildings will be via access roads leading to 15th Street and Swanee Quintet Boulevard (Figure 1).

D. Detailed Project Description

1. Project Description

15th Street Development Phase I will offer 24 one bedroom units with 748 square feet and 56 two bedroom units with 1,154 square feet (Table 1).

One bedroom units will have one bathroom and two bedroom units will have two bathrooms.

All rents will include the cost of trash removal. Tenants will bear the cost of all other utilities.

The following unit features are planned:

Kitchens with a refrigerator (including an icemaker), oven/range, garbage disposal, anddishwasher

Central heat and air-conditioning Walk-in closets Ceiling fans Mini-blinds High speed internet connections

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 15: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Project Description

Page 4

The following community amenities are planned:

Community room Elevators Arts and crafts room/activity center Fitness center

2. Other Proposed Uses

None.

3. Proposed Timing of Development

15th Street Development Phase I is expected to begin construction in 2016 and will be completed in2017. For the purposes of this report, the subject property’s anticipated placed-in-service year is2017.

Figure 1 15th Street Development Phase I Site Plan

Source: Walton Communities

Page 16: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Project Description

Page 5

Table 1 15th Street Development Phase I Detailed Project Summary

Unit Mix/Rents

Type Bed BathIncome

TargetQuantity

Unit Sq.

Feet

Developer

Rent

Rent/Sq.

Foot

Mid-Rise 1 1 60%/ACC 12 748 $300 $0.40

Mid-Rise 1 1 60% 12 748 $500 $0.67

Mid-Rise 2 2 60% 40 1,154 $585 $0.51

Mid-Rise 2 2 80% 16 1,154 $685 $0.59

Total/Average 80

Rents include trash removal.

2016

2017

2017

Surface

None

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

Owner

Owner

Tenant

Elec

Tenant

Tenant

Source: Walton Communities.

Electricity

Construction Type

Unit Features

Kitchens with dishwasher, disposal,

and pantry. Additional amenities

include ceiling fans, mini blinds, walk-

in closets, and breakfast bar.

Other:

Refrigerator

Water/Sewer

Kitchen Amenities

Microwave

Trash

Heat

Disposal

Heat Source

Range

Community Amenities

Hot/Water

15th Street Develoment Phase 1

Construction Start Date2

Building Type Date of First Move-In

Project Information

Mid-Rise

Number of Residential Buildings

Additional Information

Utilities Included

15th Street and Swanee Quintet BlvdAugusta, GA 30901

Construction Finish Date

Parking Cost

Parking Type

Dishwasher

Brick/Hardi

Community room, elevator, covered

porch, on-site laundry, Furnished Arts

& Craft /Activity Center. Furnished

Exercise / Fitness Center

Number of Stories Three

Design Characteristics (exterior)

New Const.

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 17: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Site and Neighborhood Analysis

Page 6

SITE AND NEIGHBORHOOD ANALYSIS

A. Site Analysis

1. Site Location

The subject site is the location of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community, which wasrecently demolished. The site is on the east side of 15th Street just north of Swanee QuintetBoulevard and south of downtown Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia (Map 1, Figure 2). The siteis located between Wrightsboro Road and Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard, both area thoroughfareswithin one-quarter mile of the site.

2. Existing Uses

The site is a grassy field with scattered trees. The entire site is fenced and contains some large pilesof bricks from the former public housing community (Figure 3).

3. Size, Shape, and Topography

The overall development parcel is rectangular, contains roughly 25 total acres, and is flat.

4. General Description of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site

The site for 15th Street Development Phase I is located in an established neighborhood south ofdowntown Augusta. The neighborhood is primarily residential in nature with acommercial/industrial core along 15th Street and R.A. Dent Boulevard in close proximity to thesubject site. Residential uses are primarily older single-family detached homes in poor to moderatecondition. Non-residential uses on the west side of 15th Street include office buildings and awarehouse. A large building is vacant just south of the subject site on 15th Street. Collins Elementaryand Josey High School are both located within one-quarter mile of the subject site. Several churchesare within one-half mile east of the site including Beulah Grove Baptist Church.

5. Specific Identification of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site

The land uses directly bordering the overall development parcel are as follows (Figure 4):

North: Single-family detached homes, Poplar Street, and Beulah Grove Baptist Church.

East: Single-family detached homes and Collins Elementary School.

South: Swanee Quintet Boulevard, single-family detached homes, and St. Sinai Baptist Church.

West: 15th Street and office/warehouse buildings.

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 18: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Site and Neighborhood Analysis

Page 7

Map 1 Site Location

Page 19: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Site and Neighborhood Analysis

Page 8

Figure 2 Satellite Image of Subject Site

Figure 3 Views of Subject Site

Subject site – property sign Subject site - entrance

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 20: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Site and Neighborhood Analysis

Page 9

Subject site – existing buildings Subject site – existing buildings

Figure 4 Views of Surrounding Land Uses

Single-family detached homes to east on Lee Beard Way Church to south

Church to north Vacant commercial to southwest

Page 21: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Site and Neighborhood Analysis

Page 10

Collins Elementary School to east Office to the west

B. Neighborhood Analysis

1. General Description of Neighborhood

The subject site is in an established portion of Augusta surrounded by a mixture of residential andcommercial/office uses. Residential uses include a large number of multi-family rental communitiesand single-family detached homes, all of which are of an older vintage. Conditions of existing landuses range from poor to modest but well maintained.

The subject site is located just south of Augusta’s Medical District, which is home to the CharlieNorwood VA Hospital, University Hospital, Georgia Regents University College of Dental Medicine,and Paine College. A large number of churches are north of the site and south of downtown.

2. Neighborhood Planning Activities

New development in the immediate area surrounding the site has been limited, given its establishednature and lack of undeveloped land. The area is largely built out. Nearly all new developmentactivity in Augusta over the past decade has been to the west of downtown near Interstate 520.

The redevelopment of the subject site will be one of the larger redevelopments in the immediateneighborhood in the past decade. The demolition of older dilapidated housing and replacement witha new multi-family rental community will benefit the entire neighborhood.

3. Public Safety

CrimeRisk data is an analysis tool for crime provided by Applied Geographic Solutions (AGS).CrimeRisk is a block-group level index that measures the relative risk of crime compared to anational average. AGS analyzes known socio-economic indicators for local jurisdictions that reportcrime statistics to the FBI under the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) program. Based on detailedmodeling of these relationships, CrimeRisk provides a detailed view of the risk of total crime as wellas specific crime types at the block group level. In accordance with the reporting procedures used inthe UCR reports, aggregate indexes have been prepared for personal and property crimes separatelyas well as a total index. However it must be recognized that these are un-weighted indexes, in thata murder is weighted no more heavily than purse snatching in this computation. The analysisprovides a useful measure of the relative overall crime risk in an area but should be used inconjunction with other measures.

Page 22: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Site and Neighborhood Analysis

Page 11

Map 2 displays the 2013 CrimeRisk Index for the census tracts in the general vicinity of the subjectsite. The relative risk of crime is displayed in gradations from yellow (least risk) to red (most risk).The subject site’s census tract and those in the immediately surrounding areas have a higher thanaverage crime risk when compared to the national average, but comparable with the establishedportions of Augusta near downtown. The crime risk surrounding the site is consistent with thatthroughout the 15th Street Market Area. Based on the similarity with the surroundingneighborhood, we do not expect crime or the perception of crime to negatively impact the subjectproperty’s marketability.

Map 2 2013 CrimeRisk, Subject Site and Surrounding Areas

Page 23: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Site and Neighborhood Analysis

Page 12

C. Site Visibility and Accessibility

1. Visibility

15th Street Development Phase I will visible by traffic on 15th Street, which has moderately hightraffic volume during peak hours. The redevelopment of a former public housing community willincrease community awareness.

2. Vehicular Access

15th Street Development Phase I will be accessible via a primary entrance on 15th Street and twosecondary entrances on Swanee Quintet Boulevard.

3. Availability of Public Transit and Inter-Regional Transit

Augusta Public Transit provides comprehensive public transportation services throughout Augustaand Richmond County. Services include fixed route bus service with nine routes, access to ADAParatransit service, and the Richmond Rural Transit Service. The subject site is along Route 6, whichpasses along the east side of the subject site.

Augusta is located on the south side of Interstate 20, which provides access to Atlanta (east) andColumbia, South Carolina (east). Interstate 520 serves as a perimeter highway/by-pass and forms ahorseshoe on the south side of Interstate 20 with the western connection in Georgia and theeastern connection in South Carolina. Major highways serving Augusta and Richmond Countyinclude U.S. Highways 1, 25, 78, and 278. 15th Street (Highway 4) provides access from the subjectsite to downtown Augusta and Interstate 520.

Augusta is served by the Augusta Regional Airport, located on Highway 56, four miles south ofInterstate 520. The airport serves approximately 500,000 per year and is served by Delta and U.S.Airways. Direct flights are available to Atlanta, Dallas, Reagan National, and Charlotte. AugustaRegional Airport is within 10 miles of the subject site.

4. Accessibility Improvements under Construction and Planned

Roadway Improvements under Construction and Planned

RPRG reviewed information from local stakeholders to assess whether any capital improvementprojects affecting road, transit, or pedestrian access to the subject site are currently underway orlikely to commence within the next few years. Observations made during the site visit contributedto the process.

The most significant improvement for the subject site is the widening of 15th Street which willinclude sidewalks, separate bike lanes, landscaped medians, cross walks, and bike boxes.

Transit and Other Improvements under Construction and/or Planned

New public bus stops will be added to Lee Beard Way once the project is completed.

5. Environmental Concerns

No visible environmental or miscellaneous site concerns were identified.

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 24: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Site and Neighborhood Analysis

Page 13

D. Residential Support Network

1. Key Facilities and Services near the Subject Site

The appeal of any given community is often based in part on its proximity to those facilities andservices required on a daily basis. Key facilities and services and their distances from the subject siteare listed in Table 2. The location of those facilities is plotted on Map 3.

Table 2 Key Facilities and Services

2. Essential Services

Health Care

The closest major healthcare provider to the subject site is University Hospital, a 581 bed not-for-profit medical center located 0.9 mile north of the subject site. With over 600 physicians and a3,000 person medical staff, University Hospital offers a variety of medical treatment options andservices including 24 hour emergency care, surgical services, outpatient care,Obstetrics/Gynecology, Pediatrics, laboratory services, diagnostic/imaging, Oncology, Cardiology,sleep study lab, stroke unit, Da Vinci Robotic Surgical System, and intensive care unit. Numerousother medical facilities are also located within the city of Augusta including Doctors Hospital, the VAMedical Center, Walton Rehabilitation Hospital, and Sempercare Hospital.

Senior Center

Augusta’s largest senior center is the Henry H. Brigham Senior Services Center, locatedapproximately four miles west of the site at Brigham Park. The center includes a communitybuilding, commercial kitchen, fitness room, and rental facility. The senior center provides dailyactivities, which include aerobics, fitness, nutrition, bingo, cards, and arts and crafts. The seniorcenter’s staff also helps facilitate services and meals.

Establishment Type Address

Driving

Distance

APT Bus Stop Public Transit 1694 Hunter St. 0 mileC & J Market Convenience Store 1565 15th St 0.1 mileCollins K-8 School Public School 1375 Swanee Quintet Blvd. 0.2 mileSuper Express Convenience Store 1502 Central Ave. 0.5 mileT.W. Josey High School Public School 1701 15th St. 0.5 mileAugusta Fire Department Fire 1898 Martin Luther King Blvd. 0.6 milePhysicians Practice Group Doctor/Medical 1120 15th St. 0.8 mileMedical Villa Pharmacy Pharmacy 1520 Laney-Walker Blvd. 0.8 mileUniversity Hospital Hospital 1350 Walton Way 0.9 mileCharlie Norwood VA Medical Center Hospital 950 15th St. 0.9 mileFamily Dollar General Retail 1801 Central Ave. 0.9 mileChildren's Hospital Hospital 1446 Harper St. 1 mileWallace Branch Library Library 1237 Laney-Walker Blvd. 1 mileWells Fargo Bank 1478 Walton Way. 1 mileKroger Grocery 501 15th St. 1.2 milesYMCA Community Center 1901 Kratha Dr. 1.3 milesRichmond County Sheriff's Department Police 400 Walton Way 2.3 milesKmart General Retail 1647 Gordon Hwy. 2.4 milesHenry H. Brigham Senior Center Senior Center 2463 C Golden Camp Road 4.2 milesAugusta Mall Mall 3450 Wrightsboro Rd. 5.7 milesSource: Field and Internet Survey, RPRG, Inc.

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 25: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Site and Neighborhood Analysis

Page 14

Map 3 Location of Key Facilities and Services

Page 26: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Site and Neighborhood Analysis

Page 15

3. Commercial Goods and Services

Convenience Goods

The term “convenience goods” refers to inexpensive, nondurable items that households purchaseon a frequent basis and for which they generally do not comparison shop. Examples of conveniencegoods are groceries, fast food, health and beauty aids, household cleaning products, newspapers,and gasoline.

Two small food markets/convenience stores are within one-quarter mile of the subject site andwithin walking distance. The closest full-service grocery store is Kroger on 15th Street at 1.2 milesfrom the site. A Family Dollar and pharmacy are located less than one mile from the subject site.

Shoppers Goods

The term “shoppers goods” refers to larger ticket merchandise that households purchase on aninfrequent basis and for which they usually comparison shop. The category is sometimes called“comparison goods.” Examples of shoppers’ goods are apparel and accessories, furniture and homefurnishings, appliances, jewelry, and sporting goods.

Augusta’s largest regional shopping area is centered on Augusta Mall located at the WrightsboroRoad / Interstate 520 interchange, approximately six miles from the site. The Augusta Mall containsover 150 stores anchored by Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dillard’s, JC Penney, Macy’s, and Sears.Substantial commercial development, including numerous big-box retailers, is also locatedthroughout this area.

4. Recreational Amenities

The subject site is located within close proximity to several facilities operated by Augusta Parks andRecreation Department including Pendleton King Park and Carrie J. Mays Park. Community parksinclude playgrounds, ball fields, disc golf, nature trails, tennis courts, and picnic facilities.

The subject site is located one mile from the Wallace Branch Library.

5. Location of Low Income Housing

A list and map of existing low-income housing in the 15th Street Market Area are provided in theExisting Low Income Rental Housing section of this report, starting on page 43.

E. Site Conclusion

The subject site is located in an established residential area neighborhood south of downtownAugusta and will be the product of the redevelopment of a vacant public housing community. Thesite is convenient to community services, employment centers, and traffic arteries. The site isconsidered comparable to existing rental communities in the market area and is appropriate for thecontinued use of affordable rental housing.

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 27: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Market Area Definition

Page 16

MARKET AREA DEFINITION

A. Introduction

The primary market area for the proposed 15th Street Development Phase I is defined as thegeographic area from which future residents of the community would primarily be drawn and inwhich competitive rental housing alternatives are located. In defining the primary market area,RPRG sought to accommodate the joint interests of conservatively estimating housing demand andreflecting the realities of the local rental housing marketplace.

B. Delineation of Market Area

The 15th Street Market Area consists of Census tracts along 15th Street from downtown Augusta toInterstate 520. The boundaries of the 15th Street Market Area and their approximate distance fromthe subject site are:

North: Savannah River ................................................................................. (2.0 miles)East: Old Savannah Road ............................................................................. (1.1 miles)South: Interstate 520 ................................................................................... (4.1 miles)West: Jack Road, Sibley Road ....................................................................... (2.9 miles)

The 15th Street Market Area includes the census tracts generally south of downtown Augusta along15th Street. Although a new housing community may attract residents from beyond this market area,the market area was restricted to the immediate area in an effort to be conservative. Theneighborhoods included in the 15th Street Market Area are those areas considered mostcomparable with the area immediately surrounding the subject site. The market area does notextend further to the east given the sizes and shapes of the census tracts in this portion of thecounty are large. The area immediately east of the market is sparsely developed with a largenumber of retention ponds and rail yards. The market area also does not extend further to the northor west as these portions of Augusta are newer and not directly comparable to the subject’simmediate neighborhood. For purposes of this analysis, this market area is compared to data forRichmond County as a whole.

A map of this market area along with a list of Census tracts that comprise the market area aredepicted on Map 4. As appropriate for this analysis, the 15th Street Market Area is compared toRichmond County, which is considered the secondary market area. Demand estimates are basedsolely on the 15th Street Market Area.

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 28: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Market Area Definition

Page 17

Map 4 15th Street Market Area

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 29: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Economic Content

Page 18

ECONOMIC CONTENT

A. Introduction

This section of the report focuses primarily on economic trends and conditions in Richmond County,the jurisdiction in which 15th Street Development Phase I will be located. For purposes ofcomparison, economic trends in Georgia and the nation are also discussed.

B. Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment

1. Trends in County Labor Force and Resident Employment

Richmond County’s labor force increased during six of eight years between 2000 and 2009 from87,572 people to 91,778 people. The total labor force has decreased by roughly 6,000 workers overthe past five years to 85,777 in 2014 (Table 3). It is important to note that the employed portion ofthe labor force has remained essentially unchanged since 2010; the decrease in labor force is due toemployed persons leaving the labor force.

4. Trends in County Unemployment Rate

Richmond County’s unemployment rate has increased steadily since 2000 with ranges of 4.3 percentto 5.8 percent from 2000-2004 and 6.2 percent to 7.2 percent from 2005-2008. The unemploymentrate in Richmond County increased dramatically from 7.2 percent in 2008 to 10.6 percent in 2010compared to a state high of 10.2 percent and a national high of 8.8 percent. The unemployment ratein all three areas have decreased since 2010 with 2014 unemployment rates of 8.7 percent in thecounty, 7.2 percent in the state, and 6.2 percent in the country.

C. Commutation Patterns

According to 2009-2013 American Community Survey (ACS) data, 63.4 percent of the workersresiding in the 15th Street Market Area spent less than 20 minutes commuting to work including49.4 percent at 10-19 units (Table 4). Only 16.2 percent of market area workers commuted 30minutes or more to work.

Eighty-one percent of all workers residing in the 15th Street Market Area worked in RichmondCounty and 9.6 percent worked in another Georgia county. Nine percent of the market area’sworkers worked outside the state, most likely South Carolina.

Page 30: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Economic Content

Page 19

Table 3 Labor Force and Unemployment Rates

Table 4 2009-2013 Commuting Patterns, 15th Street Market Area

Annual Unemployment Rates - Not Seasonally Adjusted

Annual

Unemployment 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Labor Force 87,167 86,512 87,790 88,868 90,074 89,801 88,769 90,907 92,255 91,254 87,887 88,509 88,377 86,741 85,777

Employment 83,280 82,298 82,907 84,014 84,776 83,650 83,164 85,362 85,658 82,033 78,209 78,543 78,988 78,219 78,341

Unemployment 3,887 4,214 4,883 4,854 5,298 6,151 5,605 5,545 6,597 9,221 9,678 9,966 9,389 8,522 7,436

Unemployment Rate

Richmond County 4.5% 4.9% 5.6% 5.5% 5.9% 6.8% 6.3% 6.1% 7.2% 10.1% 11.0% 11.3% 10.6% 9.8% 8.7%

Georgia 3.6% 4.0% 5.0% 4.8% 4.8% 5.3% 4.7% 4.5% 6.2% 9.9% 10.5% 10.2% 9.2% 8.2% 7.2%

United States 4.0% 4.7% 5.8% 6.0% 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 8.8% 8.3% 7.4% 6.2%Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Richmond County Georgia United States

Un

emp

loym

en

tR

ate

Travel Time to Work Place of Work

Workers 16 years+ # % Workers 16 years and over # %

Did not work at home: 19,928 99.2% Worked in state of residence: 18,236 90.8%

Less than 5 minutes 462 2.3% Worked in county of residence 16,305 81.2%

5 to 9 minutes 2,356 11.7% Worked outside county of residence 1,931 9.6%

10 to 14 minutes 4,043 20.1% Worked outside state of residence 1,845 9.2%

15 to 19 minutes 5,876 29.3% Total 20,081 100%

20 to 24 minutes 3,275 16.3% Source: American Community Survey 2009-2013

25 to 29 minutes 663 3.3%

30 to 34 minutes 1,813 9.0%

35 to 39 minutes 193 1.0%

40 to 44 minutes 132 0.7%

45 to 59 minutes 552 2.7%

60 to 89 minutes 436 2.2%

90 or more minutes 127 0.6%

Worked at home 153 0.8%

Total 20,081

Source: American Community Survey 2009-2013

In County81.2%

OutsideCounty

9.6%

OutsideState9.2%

2009-2013 Commuting Patterns15th Street Market Area

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 31: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Economic Content

Page 20

D. At-Place Employment

1. Trends in Total At-Place Employment

Richmond County’s At-Place Employment decreased significantly between 2000 and 2010 with a netloss of 9,368 jobs or 8.8 percent of the 2000 job base (Figure 5). The county lost jobs in seven of tenyears over this decade. The county has shown signs of stabilization and recovery with job growth inthree of the past four years for a net increase of 4,357 jobs since 2010. While not a full recoverysince 2000, recent job growth is a positive trend.

Figure 5 At-Place Employment

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

10

6,9

81

10

4,6

93

10

3,4

06

10

4,0

86

10

4,3

92

10

5,3

57

10

3,9

39

10

2,2

42

10

1,0

82

98

,60

1

97

,61

3

98

,58

9

98

,24

9

99

,59

6

10

1,9

70

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3

At

Pla

ceEm

plo

yme

nt

Total At Place Employment

-2,288

-1,287

680

306

965

-1,418-1,697

-1,160

-2,481

-988

976

-340

1,347

2,374

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3

Change in At Place Employment

Annual Change in Richmond County At Place Employment

United States Annual Employment Growth Rate

Richmond County Annual Employment Growth Rate

An

nu

alC

han

gein

At

Pla

ce

%A

nn

ualG

row

th

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 32: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Economic Content

Page 21

2. At-Place Employment by Industry Sector

The Government sector accounts for 24 percent of the jobs in Richmond County. By comparison,Government accounts for only 15.4 percent of jobs nationally (Figure 6). The next largest sectors inRichmond County are Education-Health and Trade-Transportation-Utilities with 17.2 percent and15.3 percent of the county’s job base, respectively. Compared to the national percentages,Richmond County has an equal or lower percentage in all sectors other than Government,Education-Health, Information, and Leisure-Hospitality.

Figure 6 Total Employment by Sector, 2014(Q3)

Between 2001 and the third quarter of 2014, six of eleven industry sectors added jobs in RichmondCounty (Figure 7). The largest sector of Government remained relatively unchanged with an annualgain of 0.1 percent. Mid-Tier sectors of Leisure-Hospitality, Education Health, and Professional-Business added jobs at annual rates of 1.0 percent to 1.4 percent. The most significant losses wereamong Manufacturing (3.7 percent annual loss) and Trade-Transportation-Utilities (0.9 percentannual loss).

Sector Jobs

Government 24,462

Federal 7,280

State 9,666

Local 7,516

Private Sector 77,509

Goods-Producing 11,445

295

Construction 3,915

Manufacturing 7,236

Service Providing 65,891

Trade-Trans-Utilities 15,629

Information 2,190

Financial Activities 2,784

Professional-Business 13,341

Education-Health 17,496

Leisure-Hospitality 11,673

Other 2,778

Unclassified 173

Total Employment 101,970

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

Employment by Industry Sector - 2014 (Q3)

Natural Resources-

Mining

24.0%

0.3%

3.8%

7.1%

15.3%

2.1%

2.7%

13.1%

17.2%

11.4%

2.7%

15.4%

1.5%

4.4%

8.9%

19.0%

2.0%

5.6%

13.9%

15.1%

10.8%

3.1%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Government

Nat Resources-Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade-Trans-Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Professional-Business

Education Health

Leisure-Hospitality

Other

Employment by Sector 2014 Q3

United States

Richmond County

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 33: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Economic Content

Page 22

Figure 7 Change in Employment by Sector 2001-2014(Q3)

3. Major Employers

The largest employer in Richmond County is the U.S. Army base Fort Gordon, which employs nearly20,000 people – more than four times larger than the second largest employer. Seven of the top tenmajor employers are part of the Education-Health sector (Table 5). Richmond County’s majoremployers are generally located within five to ten miles of downtown Augusta and the subject site(Map 5).

Table 5 Major Employers, Augusta Area

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

0.1%

3.0%

-1.2%

-3.7%

-0.9%

-0.3%

-2.0%

1.2%

1.0%

1.4%

0.4%

0.2%

1.5%

-0.7%

-2.2%

0.1%

-2.1%

0.0%

1.2%

2.5%

1.6%

0.1%

-5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

Government

Nat Resources-Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade-Trans-Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Professional-Business

Education Health

Leisure-Hospitality

Other

Annualized Employment Change by Sector, 2001-2014 Q3

United States

Richmond County

Rank Name Industry Employment

1 U.S. Army Signal Center & Fort Gordon Government 19,844

2 Georgia Health Sciences University Education 4,656

3 Richmond County School System Education 4,418

4 University Hospital Healthcare 3,200

5 Georgia Health Sciences Hospitals Healthcare 3,054

6 Augusta-Richmond County Government 2,612

7 VA Medical Centers Healthcare 2,082

8 East Central Regional Hospital Healthcare 1,488

9 EZ GO Textron Manufacturing 1,277

10 Doctors Hospital Healthcare 1,210

11 Covidien Manufacturing 850

12 International Paper Manufacturing 820

13 Kellogg's Manufacturing 535

14 Proctor & Gamble Manufacturing 450

15 Thermal Ceramics Manufacturing 444

16 Augusta Newsprint Printing/Manufacturing 374

17 Boral Brick Manufacturing 363

18 PCS Nitrogen Manufacturing 350

19 DSM Chemical Manufacturing 350

20 Augusta Coca-Cola Manufacturing 315

Sources: Augusta Economic Development

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 34: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Economic Content

Page 23

Map 5 Major Employers

4. Recent Economic Expansions and Contractions

The most significant economic expansions in the Augusta area are the National Security Agency andthe Army’s Cyber Center for Excellence, both headquartered at Fort Gordon (Table 6). The NationalSecurity Agency opened its Fort Gordon office in 2012, adding approximately 1,000 jobs to thealready 3,000 employed by the NSA at Fort Gordon. Plans to create a centralized Army CyberCommand headquarters at Fort Gordon were announced in early 2014 and are expected to createapproximately 3,700 military, civilian, and contractor jobs by 2019. The addition of the CyberCommand center at Fort Gordon is expected to offset the announcement of the countrywidecutback in United States military personnel over the next five years. In addition to the twoexpansions at Fort Gordon, RPRG identified five several business expansions in Augusta. The totaljob growth among these companies is 5,650.

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 35: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Economic Content

Page 24

Limited layoff announcements were identified in the Augusta area. Three companies haveannounced layoffs since 2014 totaling 896 jobs lost.

Table 6 Announced Layoffs/Closures and Expansions, Richmond County, 2012-2015

5. Conclusions on Local Economics

Richmond County’s economy is stable and has shown signs of recent growth. The county hasexperienced net job growth and decreased unemployment rates over the past four years. Localeconomics are not expected to negatively impact the ability of the subject property to lease its unitsgiven the senior target market and recent improvement. The expansion of Fort Gordon is expectedto significantly improve economic conditions in Augusta over the next several years.

Business Expansions - 2012-April 2015

Year Company Name New Jobs2015 Solvay 352014 Elanco 1002014 Sitel 200

2014Cyber Center for Excellence -

Fort Gordon3,700

2013 Teleperformance 1302013 Wow! Cable 1202012 Starbucks 1402012 National Security Agency 1,0002012 Electrolux 225Total 5,650

Source: Media Reports

Business Closures / Layoffs - 2012 - April 2015

Date Company Name Lost Jobs2015 Sitel 6752014 The NutraSweet Company 134

2014 Georgia Regents Medical Center 87

Total 896Source: GA Department of Labor

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 36: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Demographic Analysis

Page 25

DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

A. Introduction and Methodology

RPRG analyzed recent trends in population and households in the 15th Street Market Area and theRichmond County using U.S. Census data and data from Esri, a national data vendor that preparessmall area estimates and projections of population and households.

B. Trends in Population and Households

1. Recent Past Trends

Between 2000 and 2010 Census counts, the population of the 15th Street Market Area decreased by8.9 percent, from 64,057 to 58,377 people for an annual decrease of 0.9 percent or 568 people(Table 7). During the same period, the number of households in the 15th Street Market Areadecreased from 26,769 to 24,760 households (7.5 percent total loss) or an annual loss of 201households (0.8 percent).

By comparison, the population of Richmond County expanded by 0.4 percent from 2000 to 2010 andthe number of households increased by 4.1 percent overall and 0.4 percent annually.

2. Projected Trends

Based on Esri projections, the 15th Street Market Area’s population and household base hasstabilized and remained relatively unchanged between 2010 and 2015 with a net loss of two peopleand a gain of 120 households. The county added 2,869 people (1.4 percent) and 1,745 households(2.3 percent) over the same five year period.

Recent trends are projected to continue with the market area remaining relatively unchanged andthe county growing at modest annual rate. The annual household change over the next two years isprojected at 25 households in the market area (0.1 percent) and 334 households (0.4 percent) in thecounty.

3. Building Permit Trends

RPRG examines building permit trends to help determine if the housing supply is meeting demand,as measured by new households. From 2000 to 2009, 660 new housing units were authorized onaverage each year in Richmond County compared to an annual increase of 300 households betweenthe 2000 and 2010 census counts (Table 8). The disparity in household growth relative to unitspermitted suggests an overbuilt market; however, these figures also do not take the replacement ofexisting housing units into account.

Building permit activity slowed significantly after 2006 (815 units permitted) with an average of 381units permitted from 2007 to 2013. The 722 residential units permitted in 2014 represent asignificant increase and is greater than the average annual permit activity of the past decade. Bystructure type, 83 percent of all residential permits issued in Richmond County were for single-family detached homes. Multi-family structures (5+ units) accounted for 16 percent of unitspermitted while buildings with 2-4 units contain less than one percent of permitted units.

Page 37: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Demographic Analysis

Page 26

Table 7 Population and Household Projections

Table 8 Building Permits by Structure Type, Richmond County

Richmond County 15th Street Market Area

Total Change Annual Change Total Change Annual Change

Population Count # % # % Count # % # %2000 199,775 64,0572010 200,549 774 0.4% 77 0.0% 58,377 -5,680 -8.9% -568 -0.9%2015 203,418 2,869 1.4% 574 0.3% 58,375 -2 0.0% 0 0.0%2017 204,542 1,124 0.6% 562 0.3% 58,392 17 0.0% 8 0.0%

Total Change Annual Change Total Change Annual Change

Households Count # % # % Count # % # %2000 73,920 26,7692010 76,924 3,004 4.1% 300 0.4% 24,760 -2,009 -7.5% -201 -0.8%2015 78,669 1,745 2.3% 349 0.4% 24,880 120 0.5% 24 0.1%2017 79,336 667 0.8% 334 0.4% 24,930 51 0.2% 25 0.1%

Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; Esri; and Real Property Research Group, Inc.

300349 334

-201

24 25

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2000-2010 2010-2015 2015-2017

Richmond County

15th Street MarketArea

Annual Change in Number of Households, 2000 to 2017

Richmond County

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142000-

2014

Annual

AverageSingle Family 483 548 565 664 829 604 815 448 194 391 371 267 367 445 346 7,337 489

Two Family 0 0 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 4 20 1

3 - 4 Family 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 3 0 32 25+ Family 42 196 323 224 0 89 0 0 56 98 7 0 0 0 372 1,407 94

Total 525 744 914 888 831 693 815 448 250 489 378 267 378 454 722 8,796 586

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, C-40 Building Permit Reports.

525

744

914 888831

693

815

448

250

489

378

267

378454

722

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Un

its

Pe

rmit

ted

Total Housing Units Permitted2000 - 2014

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 38: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Demographic Analysis

Page 27

4. Senior Household Trends

Senior household growth with householder age 55+ is estimated to have outpaced overallhousehold growth on a percentage basis over the past five years with annual increases of 157households or 1.4 percent (Table 9). The higher growth rate of senior households is due in part toaging in place of existing households rather than solely net migration into the market area. Themarket area is projected to reach 11,654 households with householder age 55 and older by 2017with annual increases of 147 households or 1.3 percent between 2015 and 2017.

Table 9 Senior Household Projections, 15th Street Market Area

C. Demographic Characteristics

1. Age Distribution and Household Type

The population of the 15th Street Market Area is older than Richmond County with median ages of35 in the market area and 33 in the county. Adults (35-61 years) comprise the largest percentage ofthe population in both areas at 31.6 percent in the market area and 32.2 percent in the county(Table 10). Children/Youth under the age of 20 account for roughly 27 percent of the populations inboth areas. Seniors age 55 and older comprise 28.7 percent of people in the market area and 25.1percent in the county.

15th Street Market Area Total Annual Total AnnualAge of 2010 2015 2017 # % # % # % # %55 to 61 3,290 31.1% 3,392 29.9% 3,389 29.1% 102 3.1% 20 0.6% -3 -0.1% -1 0.0%62-64 1,288 12.2% 1,454 12.8% 1,453 12.5% 166 12.9% 33 2.5% -1 -0.1% -1 0.0%65 to 74 2,962 28.0% 3,510 30.9% 3,718 31.9% 548 18.5% 110 3.5% 209 5.9% 104 2.9%

75 and older 3,033 28.7% 3,004 26.4% 3,094 26.5% -29 -1.0% -6 -0.2% 90 3.0% 45 1.5%Householders

55+10,573 11,359 11,654 786 7.4% 157 1.4% 294 2.6% 147 1.3%

Source: 2010 Census; Esri; RPRG

Change 2010 to 2015 Change 2015 to 2017

3,290

1,288

2,962 3,033

3,392

1,454

3,510

3,004

3,389

1,453

3,718

3,094

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

55 to 61 62-64 65 to 74 75 and older

#H

ou

seh

old

s

2015-2017 Older Adult Householders by Age

2010

2015

2017

Page 39: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Demographic Analysis

Page 28

Table 10 2015 Age Distribution

Households with at least two persons but no children account for approximately 33.8 percent ofhouseholds in the 15th Street Market Area and 36.0 percent in Richmond County (Table 11). Nearly29 percent of the households in the market area have children present compared to 33.6 percent inthe county. Single person households are more common in the 15th Street Market Area at 37.2percent of all households than Richmond County’s 30.4 percent.

Table 11 2010 Households by Household Type

2. Renter Household Characteristics

The 15th Street Market Area’s households have a higher propensity to rent with 56.7 percent of allhouseholds renting in 2010 compared to 45.8 percent in Richmond County (Table 12). Between the2000 and 2010 Census counts, both the market area and county gained renter households and lostowner households, which resulted in large renter percentage increases. Renter percentages are

# % # %

Children/Youth 54,988 27.0% 15,272 26.2%Under 5 years 14,535 7.1% 4,396 7.5%5-9 years 13,812 6.8% 3,976 6.8%10-14 years 12,675 6.2% 3,449 5.9%15-19 years 13,967 6.9% 3,451 5.9%

Young Adults 49,261 24.2% 13,132 22.5%20-24 years 16,921 8.3% 4,428 7.6%

25-34 years 32,341 15.9% 8,704 14.9%Adults 65,369 32.1% 18,469 31.6%

35-44 years 23,813 11.7% 6,122 10.5%45-54 years 24,291 11.9% 7,095 12.2%55-61 years 17,265 8.5% 5,253 9.0%

Seniors 33,799 16.6% 11,502 19.7%62-64 years 7,399 3.6% 2,251 3.9%65-74 years 15,667 7.7% 5,120 8.8%75-84 years 7,773 3.8% 2,866 4.9%85 and older 2,961 1.5% 1,265 2.2%

TOTAL 203,418 100% 58,375 100%

Median Age

Source: Esri; RPRG, Inc.

33 35

Richmond

County

15th Street

Market Area

27.0%

24.2%

32.1%

16.6%

26.2%

22.5%

31.6%

19.7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Child/Youth

YoungAdults

Adults

Seniors

% Pop

Typ

e

2015 Age Distribution15th Street Market Area

Richmond County

# % # %

Married w/Children 11,566 15.0% 2,219 9.0%

Other w/ Children 14,291 18.6% 4,948 20.0%

Households w/ Children 25,857 33.6% 7,167 28.9%

Married w/o Children 15,781 20.5% 3,861 15.6%

Other Family w/o Children 7,248 9.4% 2,766 11.2%

Non-Family w/o Children 4,638 6.0% 1,751 7.1%

Households w/o Children 27,667 36.0% 8,378 33.8%

Singles Living Alone 23,400 30.4% 9,215 37.2%

Singles 23,400 30.4% 9,215 37.2%

Total 76,924 100% 24,760 100%

Source: 2010 Census; RPRG, Inc.

Households by Household

Type

Richmond County15th Street

Market Area

30.4%

36.0%

33.6%

37.2%

33.8%

28.9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Singles

HH w/oChildren

HH w/Children

% Households

Ho

use

ho

ldTy

pe

2010 Households by Household Type15th Street Market Area Richmond County

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 40: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Demographic Analysis

Page 29

expected to continue to increase in both areas through 2017 with projected rates of 59.9 percent inthe market area and 49.0 percent in the county.

Among senior household with householder age 55+, renter percentages are lower than the overallpopulation with the market area’s renter percentage exceeding the county’s (Table 13). Theestimated 2015 renter percent among senior (55+) households is 41.6 percent in the market areaand 28.8 percent in the county.

Table 12 Households by Tenure

Table 13 Senior Households by Tenure

Renter householders are generally older in the 15th Street Market Area than Richmond County asyoung adult renters (25-44 years) comprise 41 percent of the market area’s renter households and49.2 percent of the county’s renter households (Table 14). Roughly one-third of the market area’srenter households are older adults age 45-64 and 16.1 percent are age 65 and older.

Richmond County 2000 2010 2015 2017

Housing Units # % # % # % # %

Owner Occupied 42,840 58.0% 41,682 54.2% 40,721 51.8% 40,485 51.0%

Renter Occupied 31,080 42.0% 35,242 45.8% 37,948 48.2% 38,851 49.0%

Total Occupied 73,920 100% 76,924 100% 78,669 100% 79,336 100%

Total Vacant 8,392 9,407 9,620 9,702

TOTAL UNITS 82,312 86,331 88,289 89,038

15th Street Market

Area 2000 2010 2015 2017

Housing Units # % # % # % # %

Owner Occupied 12,823 47.9% 10,727 43.3% 10,155 40.8% 9,986 40.1%

Renter Occupied 13,946 52.1% 14,033 56.7% 14,724 59.2% 14,944 59.9%

Total Occupied 26,769 100.0% 24,760 100.0% 24,880 100.0% 24,930 100.0%

Total Vacant 3,907 4,298 4,319 4,328

TOTAL UNITS 30,676 29,058 29,198 29,258

Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; Esri; RPRG, Inc.

Senior Households 55+ Richmond County

15th Street Market

Area

2015 Households # % # %Owner Occupied 23,112 71.2% 6,631 58.4%Renter Occupied 9,363 28.8% 4,728 41.6%Total Occupied 32,475 100.0% 11,359 100.0%

Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; ESRI; RPRG

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 41: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Demographic Analysis

Page 30

Table 14 Renter Households by Age of Householder

As of 2010, 66.3 percent of all renter households in the 15th Street Market Area contained one ortwo persons compared to 61.1 percent in Richmond County (Table 15). Renter households withthree or four persons accounted for 24.7 percent of the households in the market area and 28.1percent in the county. Large households (5+ persons) accounted for 9.0 percent of renterhouseholds in the 15th Street Market Area and 10.8 percent of renter households in RichmondCounty.

Table 15 2010 Renter Households by Household Size

3. Income Characteristics

According to income distributions provided by Esri, the 2015 median income of households in the15th Street Market Area is $26,333, 31.2 percent lower than the Richmond County medianhousehold income of $38,292 (Table 16). Roughly 48 percent of the households in the market areaearn less than $25,000 compared to 34.3 percent of households in the county. Moderate income($25,000 to $49,999) households comprise 26.9 percent of the households in the market area and28.1 percent in the county.

Renter

Households Richmond County

15th Street

Market Area

Age of HHldr # % # %

15-24 years 4,206 11.1% 1,494 10.1% 2

25-34 years 11,617 30.6% 3,682 25.0% 2

35-44 years 7,064 18.6% 2,360 16.0% 2

45-54 years 5,698 15.0% 2,461 16.7% 1

55-64 years 4,948 13.0% 2,360 16.0%

65-74 years 2,634 6.9% 1,371 9.3% 1

75+ years 1,780 4.7% 997 6.8% 1

Total 37,948 100% 14,724 100%Source: Esri, Real Property Research Group, Inc.

11.1%

30.6%

18.6%

15.0%

13.0%

6.9%

4.7%

10.1%

25.0%

16.0%

16.7%

16.0%

9.3%

6.8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

15-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-74

75+

% Households

Age

of

Ho

use

ho

lde

r

2015 Renter Households by Age ofHouseholder 15th Street Market

AreaRichmond County

Richmond

County

15th Street

Market Area

# % # %1-person hhld 12,485 35.4% 5,688 40.5%2-person hhld 9,062 25.7% 3,609 25.7%3-person hhld 5,837 16.6% 2,111 15.0%4-person hhld 4,065 11.5% 1,356 9.7%

5+-person hhld 3,793 10.8% 1,269 9.0%TOTAL 35,242 100% 14,033 100%

Source: 2010 Census

Renter

Occupied

35.4%

25.7%

16.6%

11.5%

10.8%

40.5%

25.7%

15.0%

9.7%

9.0%

0% 20% 40% 60%

1-person

2-person

3-person

4-person

5+-person

% hhlds

Ho

use

ho

ldSi

ze

2010 Persons per Household RenterOccupied Units 15th Street Market

AreaRichmond County

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 42: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Demographic Analysis

Page 31

Table 16 2015 Household Income

Looking at incomes by age of householder, households with householders 55 and older have amedian income of $22,910 as of 2015 (Table 17). Over two thirds of householders 55+ have incomesbelow $35,000. The median income of senior households age 55 and older is projected to increaseto $23,781 by 2017.

Table 17 Household Income of Householders 55+, 2015 and 2017

# % # %

less than $15,000 16,493 21.0% 8,084 32.5% 2

$15,000 $24,999 10,455 13.3% 3,952 15.9% 3

$25,000 $34,999 9,645 12.3% 3,026 12.2% 4

$35,000 $49,999 12,488 15.9% 3,670 14.7% 5

$50,000 $74,999 13,528 17.2% 3,142 12.6% 6

$75,000 $99,999 7,047 9.0% 1,177 4.7% 7

$100,000 $149,999 5,701 7.2% 1,047 4.2% 8

$150,000 Over 3,312 4.2% 781 3.1% 9

Total 78,669 100% 24,880 100% 10

Median Income $38,292 $26,333Source: Esri; Real Property Research Group, Inc.

15th Street

Market AreaRichmond CountyEstimated 2015

Household Income

21.0%

13.3%

12.3%

15.9%

17.2%

9.0%

7.2%

4.2%

32.5%

15.9%

12.2%

14.7%

12.6%

4.7%

4.2%

3.1%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

<$15K

$15-$24K

$25-$34K

$35-$49K

$50-$74K

$75-$99K

$100-$149K

$150+k

% Households

Ho

use

ho

ldIn

com

e

2015 Household Income

15th Street Market Area

Richmond County

# % # %

less than $15,000 3,880 34.2% 3,985 34.2% 2

$15,000 $24,999 2,274 20.0% 2,097 18.0% 3

$25,000 $34,999 1,399 12.3% 1,392 11.9% 4

$35,000 $49,999 1,498 13.2% 1,600 13.7% 5

$50,000 $74,999 1,115 9.8% 1,163 10.0% 6

$75,000 $99,999 440 3.9% 528 4.5% 7

$100,000 $149,999 434 3.8% 517 4.4% 8

$150,000 $199,999 87 0.8% 114 1.0% 9

$200,000 over 232 2.0% 256 2.2% 10

Total 11,359 100% 11,654 100%

Median Income 23

Source: American Community Survey 2009-2013 Estimates, RPRG, Inc.

2015 Household

Income

2017 Household

Income

$22,910 $23,781

15th Street Market

Area

34.2%

20.0%

12.3%

13.2%

9.8%

3.9%

3.8%

0.8%

2.0%

34.2%

18.0%

11.9%

13.7%

10.0%

4.5%

4.4%

1.0%

2.2%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

<$15K

$15-$24K

$25-$34K

$35-$49K

$50-$74K

$75-$99K

$100-$149K

$150-$199K

$200K>

% of Households

Ho

use

ho

ldIn

com

e

2017 Household Income

2015 Household Income

2015 & 2017 HH Income for Householders 55+

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 43: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Demographic Analysis

Page 32

Based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) data and breakdown oftenure and household estimates, the median income by tenure in the 15th Street Market Area is$18,287 for senior (55+) renters and $28,693 for senior (55+) owner households (Table 18).Roughly two-thirds of all senior (55+) renter householders in the 15th Street Market Area earn lessthan $25,000 including 41.9 percent earning less than $15,000. Twenty-two percent of senior renterhouseholds in the market area earn $25,000 to $49,999.

Table 18 2015 Senior Household Income by Tenure

# % # %

less than $15,000 1,982 41.9% 1,898 28.6% 2

$15,000 $24,999 1,162 24.6% 1,113 16.8% 3

$25,000 $34,999 574 12.1% 825 12.4% 4

$35,000 $49,999 474 10.0% 1,024 15.4% 5

$50,000 $74,999 343 7.3% 772 11.6% 6

$75,000 $99,999 97 2.1% 342 5.2% 7

$100,000 $149,999 78 1.7% 355 5.4% 8

$150,000 $199,999 6 0.1% 81 1.2% 9

$200,000 over 11 0.2% 221 3.3% 10

Total 4,728 100% 6,631 100%

Median Income 23Source: American Community Survey 2009-2013 Estimates, RPRG, Inc.

Renter

Households

Owner

Households

$18,287 $28,693

15th Street Market

Area

1,982

1,162

574

474

343

97

78

6

11

1,898

1,113

825

1,024

772

342

355

81

221

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

<$15K

$15-$24K

$25-$34K

$35-$49K

$50-$74K

$75-$99K

$100-$149K

$150-$199K

$200K>

# of Households

Ho

use

ho

ldIn

com

e

2015 HHIncome by Tenure, Households 55+

Owner Households

Renter Households

Page 44: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Competitive Housing Analysis

Page 33

COMPETITIVE HOUSING ANALYSIS

A. Introduction and Sources of Information

This section presents data and analyses pertaining to the supply of rental housing in the 15th StreetMarket Area. We pursued several avenues of research in an attempt to identify multifamily rentalprojects that are in the planning stages or under construction in the 15th Street Market Area. Wecontacted planners with the Augusta Planning Department. We also reviewed the list of recentLIHTC awards from DCA. The rental survey was conducted in April/May 2015.

B. Overview of Market Area Housing Stock

Based on the 2009-2013 ACS survey, the renter occupied housing stock in both the 15th StreetMarket Area and Richmond County include a range of structure types. In the market area, 39.7percent of renter occupied units are single-family detached homes, 9.3 percent are townhomes orduplexes, and 39.1 percent are contained within multi-family structures with five or more units(Table 19). Compared to the market area, the county has a higher percentage of rental units inmobile homes and townhomes.

The 15th Street Market Area housing stock is notably older than that of Richmond County especiallyamong owner occupied units. Among rental units, the median year built was 1965 in the 15th StreetMarket Area and 1977 in Richmond County (Table 20). The 15th Street Market Area’s owneroccupied housing stock has a median year built of 1957 versus 1976 in Richmond County. Over half(52.3 percent) of renter households in the market area were built between 1950 and 1979. Renteroccupied units built since 2000 account for 4.8 percent of all rentals in the market area and 15.7percent of rentals in the county.

According to ACS data, the median value among owner-occupied housing units in the 15th StreetMarket Area from 2009 to 2013 was $78,968, which is $23,521 or 23.0 percent lower than theRichmond County median of $102,489 (Table 21). ACS estimates home values based upon valuesfrom homeowners’ assessments of the values of their homes. This data is traditionally a lessaccurate and reliable indicator of home prices in an area than actual sales data, but offers insight ofrelative housing values among two or more areas.

Table 19 Renter Occupied Unit by Structure Type

Richmond County

15th Street Market

Area

# % # %

1, detached 11,879 36.1% 4,988 39.7%

1, attached 1,516 4.6% 296 2.4%

2 1,663 5.1% 865 6.9%

3-4 3,403 10.3% 1,280 10.2%

5-9 6,984 21.2% 2,761 22.0%

10-19 2,445 7.4% 530 4.2%

20+ units 2,547 7.7% 1,623 12.9%

Mobile home 2,449 7.4% 216 1.7%

Boat, RV, Van 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

TOTAL 32,886 100% 12,559 100%Source: American Community Survey 2009-2013

Renter

Occupied39.7%

2.4%

6.9%

10.2%

22.0%

4.2%

12.9%

1.7%

0.0%

36.1%

4.6%

5.1%

10.3%

21.2%

7.4%

7.7%

7.4%

0.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

1, detached

1, attached

2

3-4

5-9

10-19

20+ units

Mobile home

Boat, RV, Van

% of Dwelling Units

Stru

ctu

reTy

pe

2009-2013 Renter Occupied Units By Structure

15th Street MarketArea

Richmond County

Page 45: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Competitive Housing Analysis

Page 34

Table 20 Dwelling Units by Year Built and Tenure

Table 21 Value of Owner Occupied Housing Stock

C. Survey of Senior Rental Communities

1. Introduction to the Senior Rental Housing Survey

As part of this analysis, RPRG surveyed four senior oriented communities located in the 15th StreetMarket Area. These four communities include two LIHTC communities and two communities withPBRA. As rents at PBRA communities are based on a percentage of tenant income and minimumincome limits do not exist, the rents and vacancies at these communities are evaluatedindependently. The two LIHTC communities without PBRA are considered the most comparable tothe proposed units at 15th Street Development Phase I.

Profile sheets with detailed information on each surveyed community, including photographs, areattached as Appendix 5.

Richmond

County

15th Street

Market Area

Richmond

County

15th Street

Market Area

# % # % # % # %

2010 or later 316 0.8% 0 0.0% 2010 or later 730 2.2% 21 0.2%

2000 to 2009 5,205 13.2% 286 2.8% 2000 to 2009 4,442 13.5% 580 4.6%

1990 to 1999 6,079 15.4% 197 2.0% 1990 to 1999 3,583 10.9% 720 5.7%

1980 to 1989 6,129 15.6% 709 7.0% 1980 to 1989 5,968 18.1% 1,515 12.1%

1970 to 1979 6,693 17.0% 1,148 11.4% 1970 to 1979 6,899 21.0% 2,473 19.7%

1960 to 1969 6,591 16.7% 2,148 21.3% 1960 to 1969 3,618 11.0% 2,170 17.3%

1950 to 1959 4,134 10.5% 2,533 25.1% 1950 to 1959 3,521 10.7% 1,924 15.3%

1940 to 1949 2,047 5.2% 1,375 13.6% 1940 to 1949 1,744 5.3% 1,214 9.7%

1939 or earlier 2,201 5.6% 1,706 16.9% 1939 or earlier 2,381 7.2% 1,942 15.5%

TOTAL 39,395 100% 10,102 100% TOTAL 32,886 100% 12,559 100%

MEDIAN YEAR

BUILT 1976 1957

MEDIAN YEAR

BUILT 1977 1965Source: American Community Survey 2009-2013 Source: American Community Survey 2009-2013

Owner

Occupied

Renter

Occupied

# % # %

less than $60,000 6,318 16.4% 2,625 26.3%

$60,000 $99,999 12,392 32.1% 3,823 38.3%

$100,000 $149,999 9,824 25.4% 1,560 15.6%

$150,000 $199,999 5,036 13.0% 572 5.7%

$200,000 $299,999 2,813 7.3% 570 5.7%

$300,000 $399,999 1,035 2.7% 384 3.8%

$400,000 $499,999 399 1.0% 160 1.6%

$500,000 $749,999 381 1.0% 147 1.5%

$750,000 over 439 1.1% 152 1.5%

Total 38,637 100% 9,993 100%

Median Value

Source: American Community Survey 2009-2013

2009-2013 Home

ValueRichmond County

15th Street Market

Area

$102,489 $78,968

16.4%

32.1%

25.4%

13.0%

7.3%

2.7%

1.0%

1.0%

1.1%

26.3%

38.3%

15.6%

5.7%

5.7%

3.8%

1.6%

1.5%

1.5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

< $60K

$60-$99K

$100-149k

$150-$199K

$200-$299K

$300-$399K

$400-$499K

$500-$749K

$750>

% of Owner Occupied Dwellings

Ho

me

Val

ue

($0

00

s)

2009-2013 Home Value 15th Street Market Area

Richmond County

Page 46: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Competitive Housing Analysis

Page 35

2. Location

One of the two LIHTC communities is just north of the site and one is on the western edge for themarket area. The deeply subsidized communities include one in downtown Augusta and one in thesouthern portion of the market area (Map 6). The site is considered comparable with these existingcommunities.

Map 6 Surveyed Senior Rental Communities

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 47: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Competitive Housing Analysis

Page 36

3. Age of Communities

The two communities without PBRA were built in 1995 and 2003. The deeply subsidizedcommunities were built in 2000 and 2009 (Table 22).

4. Structure Type

Both of the senior LIHTC communities offer garden style buildings. The deeply subsidizedcommunities include one garden style community and one mid-rise community (Table 23).

5. Size of Communities

The two senior LIHTC communities without PBRA combine for 248 units, an average of 124 units percommunity; however 200 of the units were at one community. The deeply subsidized communitiescombine for 175 with 135 units at one property.

6. Vacancy Rates

Two of 248 senior LIHTC units were reported vacant for a rate of 0.8 percent. The two deeplysubsidized communities reported only one vacancy among 175 units for a rate of 0.6 percent.

7. Rent Concessions

None of the senior rental communities are currently offering rental incentives.

8. Absorption History

The newest community in the market area was built in 2009 and has PBRA on all units. Theabsorption of this community is not applicable to the proposed units at 15th Street DevelopmentPhase I.

Table 22 Senior Rental Summary

Total Vacant Vacancy One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units

Community Type Units Units Rate Units Rent (1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent (1) SF Rent/SF

Subject - 60%/PBRA Mid-Rise 12 12 $300 748 $0.40

Subject - 60% Mid-Rise 68 12 $500 748 $0.67 40 $585 1,154 $0.51

Subject - Mkt Mid-Rise 16 16 $685 1,154 $0.59

1. Augusta Spring Gar 200 2 1.0% 100 $456 660 $0.69 100 $575 840 $0.68

Year Built: 1995 50% units 100 50 $424 660 $0.64 50 $514 840 $0.6160% units 100 50 $487 660 $0.74 50 $635 840 $0.76

2. Linden Square Gar 48 0 0.0% 36 $490 663 $0.74 12 $580 890 $0.65Year Built: 2003 50% units 20 0 15 $449 663 $0.68 5 $535 890 $0.60

60% units 18 0 13 $510 663 $0.77 5 $605 890 $0.68Market units 10 0 8 $535 663 $0.81 2 $630 890 $0.71

Overall Total 248 2 0.8%

Unsubsidized Total/Average 248 136 $473 662 $0.71 112 $577 865 $0.67% of Total Unsubsidized 100.0% 54.8% 45.2%

(1) Rent is adjusted to include only Trash and incentivesSource: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. April/Map 2015.

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 48: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Competitive Housing Analysis

Page 37

Table 23 Senior Summary, Deep Subsidy

D. Analysis of Rental Pricing and Product

1. Payment of Utility Costs

Three of four senior communities include water/sewer and trash in the price of rent (Table 24). Oneincludes the cost of all utilities. 15th Street Development Phase I will include the cost of trashremoval in the price of rent.

2. Unit Features

All four senior communities include kitchens with refrigerator and oven/range. Two communitiesinclude dishwashers in all units and one includes dishwashers in select units. None of thecommunities include microwave ovens. All communities also offer grab bars in each unit andemergency call systems. The proposed unit features at 15th Street Development Phase I will becompetitive with existing senior communities in the market area with a dishwasher, grab bars, andemergency alert systems.

3. Parking

All senior communities offer free surface parking. None offer covered parking.

4. Community Amenities

Senior amenities are fairly limited in the market area. Community rooms are the most common andoffered at three of four properties (Table 25).

Year Built/ Structure Total Vacant Vacancy AVG 1BR AVG 2BR

# Community Rehabbed Type Units Units Rate Rent (1) Rent (1) Incentive

3 Richmond Summit** 2009 Mid Rise 135 0 0.0% $635 $765 None

4Independent Living Horizons

VI**2000 Gar 40 1 2.5% $495 None

Total 175 1 0.6%

Average 2005 88 $565 $765

Deep Subsidy Communities**

(1) Rent is contract rent, and not adjusted for utilities or incentives

Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. April/May 2015.

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 49: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Competitive Housing Analysis

Page 38

Table 24 Utility Arrangement and Unit Features – Senior Rental Communities

Table 25 Senior Rental Communities - Community Amenities

5. Distribution of Units by Bedroom Type

Both LIHTC communities offer both one and two bedroom units. One of the deeply subsidizedcommunities offers only one bedroom units and one offers both one and two bedroom units.Among the two senior LIHTC communities, 54.8 percent of the units had one bedroom and 45.2percent had two bedrooms.

6. Unit Sizes

Average unit sizes among LIHTC communities are 662 square feet for one bedroom units and 865square feet for two bedroom units. The proposed unit sizes at 15th Street Development Phase I aresignificantly larger than these overall averages at 748 square feet for one bedroom units and 1,154square feet for two bedroom units.

7. Effective Rents

Unit rents presented earlier in Table 22 are effective rents rather than asking or street rents. Theserents are adjusted to account for any included incentives. Furthermore, rents are adjusted forutilities and assume the costs of trash removal are included in the rent at all communities. Theaverage rents among all AMI levels are:

Utilities included in Rent

Community Type

Heat

Type He

at

Co

oki

ng

Elec

tric

Wat

er

Tras

h Dish-

washer

Grab

Bar

Emergency

Pull

Subject LIHTC Elec o o o o x STD STD STD

Augusta Spring LIHTC Gas/Elec x x x x x Select STD

Linden Square LIHTC Elec o o o x x STD STD STD

Richmond Summit Deep Subsidy Elec o o o x x STD STD

Independent Living

Horizons VIDeep Subsidy Elec o o o x x STD STD

Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. April/May 2015.

Community Mu

ltip

urp

ose

Ro

om

Gar

den

ing

Wal

kin

gP

ath

s

Lib

rary

Art

s&C

raft

s

Thea

tre

Hea

lth

Ro

om

Co

nv.

Sto

re

Bar

ber

Sho

p

Ban

k

Subject x o x x x o o o o o

Augusta Spring x o o o o o o o x o

Linden Square x o x o o o o o x o

Richmond Summit x o o o o o o o o oIndependent Living

Horizons VI o o o o o o o o o oSource: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. April/May 2015.

Page 50: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Competitive Housing Analysis

Page 39

One bedroom units average $473 for 662 square feet or $0.71 per square foot. The highestone bedroom rent is $535 among for market rate units at Linden Square.

Two bedroom units average $577 for 865 square feet or $0.67 per square foot. The twohighest two bedroom rent is $635 for a 60 percent tax credit unit at Augusta Spring.

E. Survey of General Occupancy Rental Communities

1. Introduction to the Rental Housing Survey

Given the limited number of senor oriented rental communities, RPRG also surveyed 12 generaloccupancy rental communities in the 15th Street Market Area including eight market ratecommunities and four LIHTC communities.

Profile sheets with detailed information on each surveyed community, including photographs, areattached as Appendix 7.

2. Location

Nearly all of the surveyed communities are located to the west of the subject site toward Interstate520 (Map 7). Few of the communities are north of the subject site toward downtown Augusta. Thesubject site is considered comparable to existing communities in the market area. The location willnot result in a significant competitive advantage or disadvantage.

3. Size of Communities

The 12 surveyed communities range from 58 to 324 units and average 163 units per community.LIHTC communities are larger than market rate communities on average with 183 units percommunity (Table 26).

4. Age of Communities

The average year built of general occupancy communities is 1970, but several communities havebeen renovated.

5. Structure Type

Eleven of the 12 communities include garden and/or townhouse units. One of the communities is ahigh-rise building located near downtown Augusta.

6. Vacancy Rates

Among the 12 surveyed communities, 108 of 1,956 units were reported vacant for a rate of 5.5percent. More than half of the vacant units were reported at two communities are one market ratecommunity reported a 10.1 percent vacancy rate and one LIHTC community reported a 19.0 percentvacancy rate. The LIHTC community is a high-rise community and the manager indicated theelevator has been broken, which has led many disabled tenants to move-out. The LIHTC vacancyrate without this community was 2.3 percent among 516 units.

7. Rent Concessions

Only one general occupancy community reported a rental incentive – the LIHTC community withvacancy issues.

Page 51: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Competitive Housing Analysis

Page 40

8. Absorption History

None of the general occupancy communities have been built within the past five years; absorptionhistory is not available or relevant.

Map 7 Surveyed General Occupancy Rental Communities

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 52: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Competitive Housing Analysis

Page 41

Table 26 Rental Summary, General Occupancy Communities

9. Unit Distribution

Among the general occupancy communities providing unit distributions, 4.8 percent of units wereefficiencies, 38.7 percent were one bedroom units, 49.4 percent were two bedrooms, and 7.1percent were three bedrooms (Table 27).

10. Effective Rents

Unit rents presented in Table 27 are net or effective rents, as opposed to street or advertised rents.To arrive at effective rents, we apply adjustments to street rents in order to control for currentrental incentives and to equalize the impact of utility expenses across complexes. Specifically, thenet rents represent the hypothetical situation where trash removal utility costs are included inmonthly rents at all communities, with tenants responsible for other utility costs.

Among the 12 LIHTC/market rate rental communities surveyed, net rents, unit sizes, and rents persquare foot are as follows:

Efficiency effective rents averaged $393 among two LIHTC communities for 346 square feet.

One-bedroom effective rents averaged $453 per month. The average one bedroom unitsize was 688 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.66.

Two-bedroom effective rents averaged $552 per month. The average two bedroom unitsize was 979 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.56.

Map Year Year Structure Total Vacant Vacancy Avg 1BR Avg 2BR

# Community Built Rehab Type Units Units Rate Rent (1) Rent (1) Incentive

1 Forest Hills 1945 1995 Gar 72 0 0.0% $635 $723 None

2 Hickman Arms 1965 2003 Gar/TH 58 0 0.0% $699 None

3 Lenox of Augusta 1975 Gar 187 9 4.8% $562 $668 None

4 Georgian Place 1968 Gar/TH 324 16 4.9% $549 $651 None

5 High Point Crossing 1977 1998 Gar 168 7 4.2% $550 $630 None

6 Cedar Ridge 1986 Gar 75 2 2.7% $480 $558 None

7 Heritage 1967 Gar 188 19 10.1% $470 $553 None

8 Forest Brook* 1984 1999 Gar 161 0 0.0% $450 $538 None

9 Magnolia Park* 1969 1996 Gar/TH 171 10 5.8% $450 $512 None

10 Cedarwood* 1975 2007 Gar/TH 184 2 1.1% $420 $485 None

11 Woodhaven 1979 2013 Gar 152 2 1.3% $515 None

12 Maxwell House* 1951 2005 High Rise 216 41 19.0% $547 1st month's rentTotal 1,956 108 5.5%

Average 1970 2002 163 $512 $602

LIHTC Total 732 53 7.2%

LIHTC Average 1970 2002 183 $467 $512Tax Credit Communities*

(1) Rent is contract rent, and not adjusted for utilities or incentives

Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. March & April 2015.

Not Stabilized - Elevator

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 53: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Competitive Housing Analysis

Page 42

Table 27 Unit Distribution, Size, and Pricing, General Occupancy Communities

11. DCA Average Market Rent

To determine average “market rents” as outlined in DCA’s 2015 Market Study Manual, market raterents were averaged at the most comparable communities to the proposed 15th StreetDevelopment Phase I. These include five general occupancy properties in the 15th Street MarketArea. It is important to note, “average market rents” are not adjusted to reflect differences in age,unit size, or amenities relative to the subject property. As such, a negative rent differential does notnecessary indicate the proposed rents are unreasonable or unachievable in the market. LIHTC unitsare not used in this calculation.

The “average market rent” among comparable communities is $675 for one bedroom units and$768 for three bedroom units (Table 28). All of the subject property’s proposed rents are belowthese average market rents with rent advantages of 10.8 percent to 55.6 percent. The overallmarket advantage is 26.3 percent (Table 29).

Table 28 Average Market Rent, Most Comparable Communities

Total Efficiency Units One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units

Community Type Units Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF

Forest Hills Gar 72 $620 714 $0.87 $703 1,050 $0.67

Hickman Arms Gar/TH 58 58 $679 1,022 $0.66

Lenox of Augusta Gar 187 63 $547 713 $0.77 106 $648 1,128 $0.57 18 $744 1,300 $0.57

Georgian Place Gar/TH 324 80 $534 715 $0.75 196 $631 1,005 $0.63 48 $759 1,150 $0.66

High Point Crossing Gar 168 32 $535 850 $0.63 120 $610 950 $0.64 16 $725 1,050 $0.69

Cedar Ridge Gar 75 9 $397 288 $1.38 60 $465 650 $0.72 6 $538 907 $0.59

Heritage Gar 188 $455 750 $0.61 $533 835 $0.64

Cedarwood* 60% AMI Gar/TH 36 11 $460 850 $0.54 20 $530 990 $0.54 5 $650 1,200 $0.54

Forest Brook* 60% AMI Gar 161 57 $435 580 $0.75 96 $518 878 $0.59 8 $700 1,250 $0.56

Cedarwood* 50% AMI Gar/TH 120 37 $430 850 $0.51 68 $498 997 $0.50 15 $551 1,200 $0.46

Magnolia Park* 60% AMI Gar/TH 171 13 $435 710 $0.61 152 $492 989 $0.50 6 $625 1,100 $0.57

Cedarwood* 30% AMI Gar/TH 28 8 $213 850 $0.25 16 $246 1,000 $0.25 4 $259 1,200 $0.22

Woodhaven Gar 152 152 $500 567 $0.88

Maxwell House* 50% AMI High Rise $357 375 $0.95 $366 450 $0.81

Maxwell House* 60% AMI High Rise $426 375 $1.14 $378 532 0.7105

Maxwell House High Rise 216 72 144 $425 532 $0.80

Total/Average 1,956 $393 346 $1.14 $453 688 $0.66 $552 979 $0.56 $627 1181 $0.53

Unit Distribution 1,696 81 657 838 120

% of Total 86.7% 4.8% 38.7% 49.4% 7.1%

Tax Credit Communities*

(1) Rent is adjusted to include only Trash and incentives

Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. March & April 2015.

One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units

Community Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Rent(1) SF Rent/SF

Canalside $1,140 614 $1.86 $1,335 988 $1.35

Forest Hills $620 714 $0.87 $703 1,050 $0.67

Hickman Arms $679 1,022 $0.66

Lenox of Augusta $547 713 $0.77 $648 1,128 $0.57

Georgian Place $534 715 $0.75 $631 1,005 $0.63

High Point Crossing $535 850 $0.63 $610 950 $0.64

$675 721 $0.94 $768 1,024 $0.75(1) Rent is adjusted to include only Trash and incentives

Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. March & April 2015.

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 54: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Competitive Housing Analysis

Page 43

Table 29 Average Market Rent and Rent Advantage Summary

F. Interviews

Primary information gathered through field and phone interviews was used throughout the varioussections of this report. The interviewees included rental community property managers, LoisSchmidt with the Augusta Planning and Development Department, and Sevi Roberson with theAugusta Housing Authority.

G. Existing Low Income Rental Housing

Table 30 and Map 8 on the following pages show the location of the subject site in relation toexisting low-income rental housing properties, including those with tax credits.

Table 30 Subsidized Communities, 15th Street Market Area

One Bedroom Two BedroomSubject - LIHTC/PBRA $300

Average Market Rent $675

Difference 375.2

Advantage 55.6%

Unit 12

Subject - 60% LIHTC $500 $585

Average Market Rent $675 $768

Difference $175 $183

Advantage 25.9% 23.8%

Unit 12 40

Market $685

Average Market Rent $768

Difference $83

Advantage 10.8%

Unit 16

Overall advantage 26.3%Source: RPRG Survey, March/April 2015

Community Subsidy Type Address City DistanceLinden Square LIHTC Senior 1425 Lee Beard Way Augusta 0.3 mile

The Terrace at Edinburgh LIHTC Senior 2515 Kennedy Dr. Augusta 1.3 milesBon Air Sec. 8 Senior 2101 Walton Way Augusta 1.4 milesIndependent Living Horizons II Sec. 8 Disabled 2038 Fenwick St. Augusta 1.5 miles

Independent Living Horizons III Sec. 8 Disabled 2208 Walden Dr. Augusta 1.6 milesAugusta Properties/Renaissance Village Sec. 8 Family 1901 Broad St. Augusta 1.7 milesMaxwell House LIHTC Family 1002 Greene St. Augusta 1.7 miles

St. John's Towers Sec. 8 Senior 724 Greene St. Augusta 1.9 milesRichmond Summit Sec. 8 Senior 744 Broad St. Augusta 2 milesIndependent Living Horizons I Sec. 8 Disabled 714 Monte Santo Ave. Augusta 2.3 miles

Magnolia Park LIHTC Family 2133 Vandivere Rd. Augusta 2.4 milesCedarwood LIHTC Family 527 Richmond Hill Rd. W. Augusta 3 milesForest Brook LIHTC Family 3122 Damascus Rd. Augusta 3.1 miles

Independent Living Horizons 11 Sec. 8 Disabled 2720 Richmond Hill Rd. Augusta 3.3 milesIndependent Living Horizons IV Sec. 8 Disabled 3005 Lee St. Augusta 3.6 milesIndependent Living Horizons 5 Sec. 8 Disabled 2902 Howell Rd. Augusta 3.6 miles

Independent Living Horizons 6 Sec. 8 Senior 2950 Richmond Hill Rd. Augusta 3.7 milesIndependent Living Horizons 15 Sec. 8 Disabled 2579 Dover St. Augusta 3.7 milesShadowood Sec. 8 Senior 2506A Lumpkin Rd. Augusta 4 miles

Source: HUD, DCA

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 55: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Competitive Housing Analysis

Page 44

Map 8 Subsidized Rental Communities

H. Multi-Family Pipeline

Based on conversations with city planning officials, no new senior oriented rental communities wereidentified in the planning and/or construction stages in the 15th Street Market Area.

I. Housing Authority Data

Per Sevi Roberson at the Augusta Housing Authority, the housing authority operates an estimated1,800 public housing units and holds a waiting list of more than 5,000 households. The AugustaHousing Authority also manages approximately 3,600 section 8 vouchers and holds a waiting list ofroughly 4,500 households.

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 56: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Competitive Housing Analysis

Page 45

J. Impact of Abandoned, Vacant, or Foreclosed Homes

Based on field observations, limited abandoned / vacant single and multi-family homes exist in the15th Street Market Area. In addition, to understand the state of foreclosure in the communityaround the subject site, we tapped data available through RealtyTrac, a web site aimed primarily atassisting interested parties in the process of locating and purchasing properties in foreclosure and atrisk of foreclosure. RealtyTrac classifies properties in its database into several different categories,among them three that are relevant to our analysis: 1.) pre-foreclosure property – a property withloans in default and in danger of being repossessed or auctioned, 2.) auction property – a propertythat lien holders decide to sell at public auctions, once the homeowner’s grace period has expired,in order to dispose of the property as quickly as possible, and 3.) bank-owned property – a unit thathas been repossessed by lenders. We included properties within these three foreclosure categoriesin our analysis. We queried the RealtyTrac database for ZIP code 30901 in which the subjectproperty will be located and the broader areas of Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia, and theUnited States for comparison purposes.

Our RealtyTrac search revealed March 2014 foreclosure rates of 0.04 percent in the subjectproperty’s ZIP Code (30901), 0.11 percent in Augusta, and 0.12 percent in Richmond County. Thestate and national foreclosure rates were both 0.09 percent (Table 31). The number of foreclosuresin the subject site’s ZIP Code ranged from one to 11 units over the past year.

While the conversion of foreclosure properties can affect the demand for new multi-family rentalhousing in some markets, the impact on affordable housing and mixed-income rental communitiesis typically limited due to their tenant rent and income restrictions on most units. Furthermore, thesubject property is senior oriented and current foreclosure activity in the subject site’s ZIP Code wasminimal over the past year. As such, we do not believe foreclosed, abandoned, or vacantsingle/multi-family homes will impact the subject property’s ability to lease its units.

Table 31 Foreclosure Rate and Recent Foreclosure Activity, ZIP Code 30901

GeographyMarch 2015

Foreclosure Rate

ZIP Code: 30901 0.04%

Augusta 0.11%

Richmond County 0.12%

Georgia 0.09%

National 0.09%

Source: Realtytrac.com

ZIP Code: 30901

Month# of

Foreclosures

April 2014 2

May 2014 1

June 2014 4

July 2014 1

August 2014 11

September 2014 3

October 2014 8

November 2014 1

December 2014 7

January2015 6

February 2015 7

March 2015 3

Source: Realtytrac.com

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 57: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Findings and Conclusions

Page 46

FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

A. Key Findings

Based on the preceding review of the subject project and demographic and competitive housingtrends in the 15th Street Market Area, RPRG offers the following key findings:

1. Site and Neighborhood Analysis

The subject site is a suitable location affordable rental housing including senior units as it iscompatible with surrounding land uses and has ample access to amenities, services, andtransportation arteries.

The subject site is located in an established residential neighborhood southwest ofdowntown Augusta.

The subject site is located within close proximity to transportation arteries, publictransportation, commercial development, and employment concentrations.

The subject site is suitable for the proposed development. No negative land uses wereidentified at the time of the site visit that would affect the proposed development’s viabilityin the marketplace.

The redevelopment of a former and recently demolished public housing community on thesubject site will improve the condition of the immediate neighborhood.

2. Economic Context

Richmond County’s economy is stable and has shown signs of recent growth.

The unemployment rate in Richmond County increased dramatically from 7.2 percent in2008 to 10.6 percent in 2010 compared to a state high of 10.2 percent and a national high of8.8 percent. The unemployment rate in all three areas have decreased since 2010 with 2014unemployment rates of 8.7 percent in the county, 7.2 percent in the state, and 6.2 percentin the country.

Richmond County’s At-Place Employment has decreased significantly since 2000 with netlosses in seven of 11 years between 2000 and 2011. The net loss in At Place Employmentduring this period was 8,392 jobs or 7.8 percent. At Place Employment in the county hasshown recent signs of stabilization with a net gain of 4,357 jobs since 2010 including 2,374 inthe first three quarters of 2014.

The Government sector accounts for 24 percent of the jobs in Richmond County comparedto 15.4 percent of jobs nationally. The next largest sectors in Richmond County areEducation-Health and Trade-Transportation-Utilities with 17.2 percent and 15.3 percent ofthe county’s job base, respectively.

The subject site is located within close proximity to employment concentrations includingarea retailers, public schools, and medical providers. Most major employers andemployment concentrations are within five to ten miles of the subject site. As a seniorcommunity, local economics are less of a factor for the proposed units at the subjectproperty.

Page 58: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Findings and Conclusions

Page 47

3. Population and Household Trends

The 15th Street Market Area lost population and households between the 2000 and 2010 censuscounts, while the county had modest gains. The market is projected to reverse that trend and growthrough 2016. Senior household growth has outpaced overall household growth, due in part toaging in place.

Between 2000 and 2010 Census counts, the population of the 15th Street Market Areadecreased by 8.9 percent, from 64,057 to 58,377 people (Table 7) for an annual decrease of0.9 percent or 568 people. During the same period, the number of households in the 15thStreet Market Area decreased from 26,769 to 24,760 households (7.5 percent total loss) oran annual loss of 201 households (0.8 percent).

By comparison, the population of Richmond County expanded by 0.4 percent from 2000 to2010 and the number of households increased by 4.1 percent overall and 0.4 percentannually.

Based on Esri projections, the 15th Street Market Area’s population decreased by twopeople from 2010 to 2015 while the number of households grew by 120. Esri furtherprojects that the market area’s population will increase by 17 people between 2015 and2017, bringing the total population to 58,392 people in 2017. The annual gain over thisperiod will be 8 people and 25 households.

Senior households with householder age 55 and older increased by 786 households or 7.4percent between 2010 and 2015. Senior household growth is projected to continue withannual gains of 147 through 2017, reaching 11,654 households with householder 55+ by2017.

4. Demographic Trends

The population of the 15th Street Market Area is older than Richmond County with medianages of 35 in the market area and 33 in the county. Adults (35-61 years) comprise the largestpercentage of the population in both areas at 31.6 percent in the market area and 32.1percent in the county. Children/Youth under the age of 20 account for roughly 27 percentof the populations in both areas. Seniors age 55 and older comprise 28.7 percent of peoplein the market area and 25.1 percent in the county.

In 2010, a higher percentage of 15th Street Market Area’s households rented (56.7 percent)compared to Richmond County (48.8 percent). Both areas lost owner households and gainedrenters between the 2000 and 2010 census counts. Renter percentages are projected toincrease to 59.9 percent in the market area and 49.0 percent in the county by 2017.

Senior (55+) renter percentages are estimated at 41.6 percent in the market area and 28.8percent in the county in 2015.

Renter householders are generally older in the 15th Street Market Area than RichmondCounty as young adult renters (25-44 years) comprise 41 percent of the market area’s renterhouseholds and 49.2 percent of the county’s renter households. Roughly one-third of themarket area’s renter households are older adults age 45-64 and 16.1 percent are age 65 andolder.

As of 2010, 66.3 percent of all renter households in the 15th Street Market Area containedone or two persons compared to 61.1 percent in Richmond County. Renter households withthree or four persons accounted for 24.7 percent of the households in the market area and28.1 percent in the county. Large households (5+ persons) accounted for 9.0 percent ofrenter households in the 15th Street Market Area and 10.8 percent of renter households inRichmond County.

Page 59: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Findings and Conclusions

Page 48

The median income by tenure in the 15th Street Market Area among senior households age55 and older is $18,297 for renters and $28,693 for owner households. Roughly two-thirdsof all senior (55+) renter householders in the 15th Street Market Area earn less than$25,000 per including 41.9 percent earning less than $15,000. Nearly one-quarter of senior(55+) renter households in the market area earn $25,000 to $49,999.

5. Competitive Housing Analysis

RPRG surveyed four senior rental households including two LIHTC communities and two deeplysubsidized communities. To provide additional context, we also surveyed 12 general occupancycommunities including four LIHTC communities. Vacancy rates among senior communities are verylow and general occupancy communities are also performing well.

The two senior LIHTC communities reported only two of 248 units vacant, a rate of 0.8percent. The two deeply subsidized senior communities had one of 175 units vacant, a rateof 0.6 percent.

The average rent among senior LIHTC communities was $473 for one bedroom units and$577 for two bedroom units including LIHTC units at 50 percent and 50 percent. The averageunit sizes were 662 square feet for one bedroom units and 865 square feet for two bedroomunits, resulting in rents per square foot of $0.71 and $0.67, respectively.

General occupancy communities reported an aggregate vacancy rate of 5.5 percent,although this rate is elevated due to an LIHTC community with increased vacancy due to abroken elevator in a high-rise community. The vacancy rate without this community is 2.3percent.

The average rent among the general occupancy communities is $453 for one bedroom unitsand $552 for two bedroom units.

The “average market rent” among comparable communities is $675 for one bedroom unitsand $768 for two bedroom units. All of the subject property’s proposed rents are belowthese average market rents with rent advantages of 10.8 percent to 55.6 percent for LIHTCunits. The overall market advantage is 26.3 percent.

No new senior rental communities were identified in the market area.

Page 60: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Findings and Conclusions

Page 49

B. Affordability Analysis

1. Methodology

The Affordability Analysis tests the percentage of income-qualified households in the market areathat the subject community must capture in order to achieve full occupancy.

The first component of the Affordability Analyses involves looking at the total household incomedistribution and renter household income distribution among 15th Street Market Area householdsfor the target year of 2016. RPRG calculated the income distribution for both total households andrenter households based on the relationship between owner and renter household incomes byincome cohort from the 2009-2013 American Community Survey along with estimates and projectedincome growth by Esri (Table 32).

A particular housing unit is typically said to be affordable to households that would be expending acertain percentage of their annual income or less on the expenses related to living in that unit. Inthe case of rental units, these expenses are generally of two types – monthly contract rents paid tolandlords and payment of utility bills for which the tenant is responsible. The sum of the contractrent and utility bills is referred to as a household’s ‘gross rent burden’. For the AffordabilityAnalysis, RPRG employs a 40 percent gross rent burden.

The proposed LIHTC units at 15th Street Development Phase I will target renter households earningup to 60 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI), adjusted for household size. Maximum incomelimits are derived from 2014 HUD income limits for the Augusta MSA and are based on an averageof 1.5 persons for one bedroom units and a maximum household size of 2.0 persons for twobedroom units. 2014 income limits are used to match the developer’s LIHTC application. Theproposed market rate units are expected to attract renter households earning up 80 percent of theAMI, although these units will not be subject to income limits. Rent and income limits are detailedin Table 33 on the following page. As the ACC units at 15th Street Development Phase I will containadditional Project Based Rental Assistance (PBRA) subsidies, minimum income limits will not apply.As DCA considers all proposed PBRA/ACC units to be leasable in the market, we have set the rentsfor these units $300 per the developer’s pro-forma.

Table 32 2016 Total and Renter Income Distribution, Senior (55+) Households

# % # %

less than $15,000 3,935 34.2% 2,043 42.3%

$15,000 $24,999 2,186 19.0% 1,135 23.5%

$25,000 $34,999 1,397 12.1% 582 12.1%

$35,000 $49,999 1,549 13.5% 498 10.3%

$50,000 $74,999 1,140 9.9% 356 7.4%

$75,000 $99,999 482 4.2% 109 2.2%

$100,000 $149,999 474 4.1% 87 1.8%

$150,000 Over 344 3.0% 19 0.4%

Total 11,506 100% 4,829 100%

Median Income

Source: American Community Survey 2009-2013 Projections, RPRG, Inc.

15th Street Market

Area

$23,317 $18,276

Total Households Renter Households

Page 61: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Findings and Conclusions

Page 50

Table 33 LIHTC Income and Rent Limits, Augusta-Richmond County MSA

2. Affordability Analysis

The steps in the affordability analysis (Table 34) are as follows:

As an example, we walk through the steps to test affordability for one bedroom units at 60percent AMI without PBRA. The overall shelter cost for a one bedroom at 60 percent unitwould be $623 ($500 net rent plus a $123 allowance to cover all utility costs except trashremoval).

By applying a 40 percent rent burden to this gross rent, we determined that a one bedroomunit at 60 percent AMI would be affordable to households earning at least $18,690 per year.A projected 6,764 senior (55+) households in the 15th Street Market Area will earn at leastthis amount in 2016.

The maximum income limit for a one bedroom unit at 60 percent AMI is $25,200 based onan average household size of 1.5 persons. According to the interpolated income distributionfor 2016, the 15th Street Market Area will have 5,357 senior (55+) households with incomesabove this maximum income.

Subtracting the 5,357 senior (55+) households with incomes above the maximum incomelimit from the 6,764 senior (55+) households that could afford to rent this unit, RPRGcomputes that an estimated 1,407 senior (55+) households in the 15th Street Market Areawill be within the target income segment for the one bedroom units at 60 percent AMI. Thecapture rate for the 28 units at this floor plan is 2.0 percent for all senior households.

HUD 2014 Median Household Income

Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC MSA $55,900

Very Low Income for 4 Person Household $27,950

2014 Computed Area Median Gross Income $55,900

Utility Allowance:

1 Bedroom $123

2 Bedroom $160

LIHTC Household Income Limits by Household Size:

Household Size 30% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100% 150%

1 Person $11,760 $15,680 $19,600 $23,520 $31,360 $39,200 $58,800

2 Persons $13,440 $17,920 $22,400 $26,880 $35,840 $44,800 $67,2007 Persons $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $08 Persons $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Imputed Income Limits by Number of Bedrooms:

Persons Bedrooms 30% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100% 150%

1.5 1 $12,600 $16,800 $21,000 $25,200 $33,600 $42,000 $63,000

2 2 $13,440 $17,920 $22,400 $26,880 $35,840 $44,800 $67,200

LIHTC Tenant Rent Limits by Number of Bedrooms:

Assumes 1.5 Persons per bedroom

30% 40% 50% 60% 80%Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net

1 Bedroom $315 $192 $420 $297 $525 $402 $630 $507 $840 $717

2 Bedroom $378 $218 $504 $344 $630 $470 $756 $596 $1,008 $848Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

# Persons

Assumes max 2.0 person

hhlds

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 62: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Findings and Conclusions

Page 51

Table 34 2016 15th Street Development Phase I Affordability Analysis

60% PBRA One Bedroom Two Bedroom

Min. Max. Min. Max.Number of Units 12 0

Net Rent $300 --

Gross Rent $423 --

% Income for Shelter 40% 40%

Income Range (Min, Max) $12,690 $25,200 na 0

Total Households

Range of Qualified Hslds 8,177 5,357 0 0

2,820 0

Total HH Capture Rate 0.4% 0

Renter Households

Range of Qualified Hhdls 3,101 1,640 0 0

1,461 0

Renter HH Capture Rate 0.8% na

60% Units One Bedroom Two Bedroom

Number of Units 12 40

Net Rent $500 $585

Gross Rent $623 $745

% Income for Shelter 40% 40%

Income Range (Min, Max) $18,690 $25,200 $22,350 $26,880

Total Households

Range of Qualified Hslds 6,764 5,357 5,964 5,123

# Qualified Households 1,407 842

Unit Total HH Capture Rate 2.0% 4.8%

Renter Households

Range of Qualified Hhdls 2,368 1,640 1,952 1,542

728 410

Renter HH Capture Rate 3.8% 9.8%

80% Units One Bedroom Two Bedroom

Number of Units 16

Net Rent $685

Gross Rent $845

% Income for Shelter 40%

Income Range (Min, Max) $25,350 $35,840

Total Households

Range of Qualified Hslds 5,336 3,902

# Qualified Households 1,435

Unit Total HH Capture Rate 1.1%

Renter Households

Range of Qualified Hhdls 1,631 1,041

590Renter HH Capture Rate 2.7%

# Qualified Hhlds

# Qualified Hhlds

# Qualified Households

# Qualified Renter

All Households = 11,506 Renter Households = 4,829

# Qualified

HHs

Band of Qualified

Hhlds

# Qualified

HHs

Capture

Rate

Income $12,690 $12,690

60% PBRA 12 Households 8,177 2,820 3,101 1,461 0.8%

Income $18,690 $18,690

60% Units 52 Households 6,764 1,642 2,368 825 6.3%

Income $25,350 $25,35080% Units 16 Households 5,336 1,435 1,631 590 2.7%

Income $12,690 $12,690LIHTC Units 64 Households 8,177 3,054 3,101 1,559 4.1%

Income $12,690 $12,690Total Units 80 Households 8,177 4,275 3,101 2,060 3.9%Source: 2010 U.S. Census,Esri, Estimates, RPRG, Inc.

Units Capture

RateBand of Qualified Hhlds

Income

Target

$25,200

5,357 0.4%

$26,880

5,123

$35,8403,902

3.2%

1.1%

2.1%

1.9%

$35,8403,902

$26,8805,123

$25,200

1,640

$26,880

1,542

$35,840

$35,8401,041

1,041$26,880

1,542

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 63: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Findings and Conclusions

Page 52

Using the same methodology, we then determined that 728 senior (55+) renter householdswith incomes between the minimum income required and maximum income allowed willreside in the market in 2016. The subject property will need to capture 3.8 percent of thesesenior renter households to lease up the 28 units in this floor plan.

Capture rates are also calculated for other floor plans and for the project overall. Theremaining renter capture rates by floor plan range from 0.8 percent to 9.8 percent. By AMIlevel, renter capture rates are 0.8 percent for 60 percent units with PBRA, 6.3 percent for 60percent units without PBRA, 2.7 percent for market rate units, and 6.8 percent for all units.

3. Conclusions on Affordability

All capture rates are below 10 percent and are considered reasonable given the product, targetmarket, and lack of available senior units in the market area. The overall capture rate of 3.9 percentamong senior renter households is considered low.

C. Demand Estimates and Capture Rates

1. Methodology

DCA’s demand methodology for senior communities consists of four components:

The first component of demand is senior (55+) household growth. This number is thenumber of age and income qualified renter households projected to move into the 15thStreet Market Area between the base year of 2013 and 2016.

The next component of demand is income qualified renter households living in substandardhouseholds. “Substandard” is defined as having more than 1.01 persons per room and/orlacking complete plumbing facilities. According to 2010 Census data, the percentage ofrenter households in the primary market area that are “substandard” is 3.5 percent (Table35). This substandard percentage is applied to current senior (55+) household numbers.

The third component of demand is cost burdened renters, which is defined as those renterhouseholds paying more than 40 percent of household income for housing costs. Accordingto ACS data, 47.7 percent of the 15th Street Market Area’s senior renter households (65+)are categorized as cost burdened (Table 35). This percentage is applied to the householdbase with householder age 55+.

The final component of demand is from senior homeowners converting to rental housing.There is a lack of detailed local or regional information regarding the movership of elderlyhomeowners to rental housing. According to the American Housing Survey conducted forthe U.S. Census Bureau in 2011, 2.7 percent of elderly households move each year in theUnited States. Of those moving within the past twelve months, 41.6 percent moved fromowned to rental housing (Table 36). This results in a senior homeowner conversion rate of1.1 percent. Given the lack of local information, this source is considered to be the mostcurrent and accurate.

The data assumptions used in the calculation of these demand estimates are detailed at the bottomof Table 37. Income qualification percentages are derived by using the Affordability Analysis detailedin Table 34.

2. Demand Analysis

According to DCA’s demand methodology, all comparable units built or approved since the baseyear (2012) are to be subtracted from the demand estimates to arrive at net demand. No such unitswere identified in the market area.

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 64: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Findings and Conclusions

Page 53

The overall capture rates are 1.4 for 60 percent units with PBRA, 10.7 percent for 60 percent unitswithout PBRA, 4.6 percent for market rate units, and 6.6 percent for all units (Table 37). Capturerates by floorplan range from 1.4 percent to 26.4 percent (Table 38). All capture rates are belowDCA’s mandated threshold of 30 percent and indicate sufficient demand to support the proposeddevelopment. Demand for the proposed units is expected to be augmented by renter householdswith Housing Choice Vouchers, which will increase the number of age and income qualifiedhouseholds and reduce the capture rates.

Table 35 Substandard and Cost Burdened Calculations

Table 36 Senior Homeowner Conversion

Rent Cost Burden Substandardness

Total Households # % Total Households

Less than 10.0 percent 248 2.0% Owner occupied:

10.0 to 14.9 percent 775 6.2% Complete plumbing facilities: 10,081

15.0 to 19.9 percent 937 7.5% 1.00 or less occupants per room 10,001

20.0 to 24.9 percent 1,008 8.0% 1.01 or more occupants per room 80

25.0 to 29.9 percent 1,205 9.6% Lacking complete plumbing facilities: 21

30.0 to 34.9 percent 905 7.2% Overcrowded or lacking plumbing 101

35.0 to 39.9 percent 698 5.6%

40.0 to 49.9 percent 1,308 10.4% Renter occupied:

50.0 percent or more 4,162 33.1% Complete plumbing facilities: 12,493

Not computed 1,313 10.5% 1.00 or less occupants per room 12,117

Total 12,559 100% 1.01 or more occupants per room 376

Lacking complete plumbing facilities: 66

> 35% income on rent 6,168 54.8% Overcrowded or lacking plumbing 442

Households 65+ # % Substandard Housing 543

Less than 20.0 percent 288 17.1% % Total Stock Substandard 2.4%

20.0 to 24.9 percent 117 6.9% % Rental Stock Substandard 3.5%

25.0 to 29.9 percent 206 12.2%

30.0 to 34.9 percent 76 4.5%

35.0 percent or more 801 47.5%

Not computed 200 11.8%

Total 1,688 100%

> 35% income on rent 801 53.8%

> 40% income on rent 47.7%

Source: American Community Survey 2009-2013

Tenure of Previous Residence - Renter Occupied Units United States

Senior Households 65+ # %

Total Households 25,058,000

Total Households Moving within the Past Year 681,000 2.7%

Total Moved from Home, Apt., Mfg./Mobile Home 610,000 89.6%

Moved from Owner Occupied Housing 254,000 41.6%

Moved from Renter Occupied Housing 356,000 58.4%

Total Moved from Other Housing or Not Reported 71000 10.4%

% of Senior Households Moving Within the Past Year 2.7%

% of Senior Movers Converting from Homeowners to Renters 41.6%

% of Senior Households Converting from Homeowners to Renters 1.1%

Source: American Housing Survey, 2011

Homeownership to Rental Housing Conversion

Page 65: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Findings and Conclusions

Page 54

Table 37 DCA Demand by Income Level

Table 38 DCA Demand by Floor Plan

D. Product Evaluation

Considered in the context of the competitive environment, the relative position of 15th StreetDevelopment Phase I is as follows:

Site: The subject site is acceptable for a rental housing development targeting very low tomoderate income senior renter households. Surrounding land uses are compatible withmulti-family development and are appropriate for an affordable rental community. Thesubject site is convenient to major thoroughfares, employment concentrations, andcommunity amenities.

Income Target 60% PBRA 60% Units 80% Units LIHTC Units Total UnitsMinimum Income Limit $12,690 $18,690 $25,350 $12,690 $12,690

Maximum Income Limit $25,200 $26,880 $35,840 $26,880 $35,840(A) Renter Income Qualification Percentage 30.3% 17.1% 12.2% 32.3% 42.7%

Demand from New Renter Households

Calculation (C-B) *F*A54 31 22 58 77

PLUS

Demand from Existing Renter HHs (Substandard)

Calculation B*D*F*A49 28 20 52 69

PLUS

Demand from Existing Renter HHhs (Overburdened)

Calculation B*E*F*A664 375 268 708 935

PLUS

Secondary Market Demand Adjustment (10%)* 77 43 31 82 108SUBTOTAL 844 477 341 900 1,189PLUSDemand Elderly Homeowner Conversion* (Max. 2%) 17 10 7 18 24TOTAL DEMAND 860 486 347 918 1,213LESS

Comparable Units Built or Planned Since 2010 0 0 0 0 0Net Demand 860 486 347 918 1,213Proposed Units 12 52 16 64 80

Capture Rate 1.4% 10.7% 4.6% 7.0% 6.6%* Limited to 15% of Total Demand

Demand Calculation InputsA). % of Renter Hhlds with Qualifying Income see aboveB). 2013 Senior Households (55+) 11,038C). 2016 Senior Households (55+) 11,470

D). Substandard Housing (% of Rental Stock) 3.5%E). Rent Overburdened (% Senior Households) 47.7%F). Renter Percentage (Senior Households) 41.6%G). Elderly Homeowner Turnover 1.0%

Income/Unit Size Income LimitsUnits

Proposed

Renter Income

Qualification %

Total

DemandSupply

Net

Demand

Capture

Rate

60% PBRA $12,690 - $25,200One Bedroom Units $12,690 - $25,200 12 30.3% 860 0 860 1.4%

60% Units $18,690 - $26,880

One Bedroom Units $18,690 - $25,200 28 9.7% 275 0 275 10.2%Two Bedroom Units $22,350 - $26,880 40 5.3% 151 0 151 26.4%

80% Units $25,350 - $35,840Two Bedroom Units $25,350 - $35,840 16 12.2% 347 0 347 4.6%

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 66: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Findings and Conclusions

Page 55

Unit Distribution: The proposed unit mix for 15th Street Development Phase I is evenlydistributed among one and two bedroom units with 40 units in each floor plan. Both oneand two bedroom units are common in the market area among senior communities and willbe well received by the target market.

Unit Size: The proposed unit sizes at 15th Street Development Phase I are 748 square feetfor one bedroom units and 1,154 square feet for two bedroom units. These proposed unitsizes are significantly larger than existing senior and general occupancy rental communities.

Unit Features: In-unit features offered at the subject property will include a range,refrigerator, dishwasher, garbage disposal, and ceiling fans. These unit features arecomparable or superior to existing senior communities in the market area.

Community Amenities: 15th Street Development Phase I’s community amenity package willinclude a community room, fitness center, and arts and crafts room. This amenity packagewill be superior to all existing senior communities.

Marketability: The subject property will offer an attractive product that is suitable for thetarget market. It will also improve the quality of the senior rental housing stock in the 15thStreet Market Area by expanding the inventory of new and high quality affordable housingfor seniors.

E. Price Position

As shown in Figure 8, the proposed one bedroom units with PBRA will be among the lowest priced inthe market area. The proposed LIHTC one bedroom units will be positioned among existing marketand LIHTC units and well below the top of the market. The proposed two bedroom rents at 60percent AMI will between LIHTC and market rate rents with the largest units in the market area. Theproposed two bedroom units will be priced comparable to older market rate communities but wellbelow Canalside.

Page 67: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Findings and Conclusions

Page 56

Figure 8 Price Position – 15th Street Development Phase I

Page 68: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Findings and Conclusions

Page 57

F. Absorption Estimate

The most recently constructed senior rental community without PBRA in the 15th Street MarketArea was built in 2003 and lease-up information is neither available nor relevant. In addition to theexperience of recently constructed rental communities, the projected absorption rate for thesubject property is based on projected senior household growth, the number of income-qualifiedrenter households projected in the market area, reasonable demand estimates, rental marketconditions, and the marketability of the proposed site and product.

The senior (55+) household base of the 15th Street Market Area is projected to increase by147 units per year through 2017, an annual increase of 1.3 percent.

Over 2,000 renter households will be age and income-qualified for proposed units.

All DCA demand capture rates, both by income level and floor plan, are below acceptablethresholds of 30 percent for all units proposed at 15th Street Development Phase I.

Only two senior rental units were identified as vacant in the market area among 248 LIHTCand 175 deeply subsidized units.

All of the proposed rents at 15th Street Development Phase I will be positionedcompetitively relative to the existing rental stock. All rents have an advantage relative to theaverage unadjusted market rent of at least 10 percent.

15th Street Development Phase I will offer an attractive product that will be among thenicest rental communities in the 15th Street Market Area. The proposed product will bewell received at the proposed price points. No new communities without PBRA have beenintroduced in the market area over the past 10+ years.

Based on the product to be constructed and the factors discussed above, we expect 15th StreetDevelopment Phase I’s LIHTC units to lease-up at a rate of ten units per month, resulting in a leaseup period of roughly eight months.

G. Impact on Existing Market

Given the very low senior vacancies at LIHTC communities in the 15th Street Market Area andprojected senior household growth over the next five years, we do not expect 15th StreetDevelopment Phase I to have negative impact on existing rental communities in the 15th StreetMarket Area including those with tax credits.

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 69: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Findings and Conclusions

Page 58

H. Final Conclusions and Recommendations

Based on senior household growth, acceptable affordability and demand capture rates, and lowsenior vacancy rates, sufficient demand exists to support the proposed units at 15th StreetDevelopment Phase I. As such, RPRG believes that the proposed 15th Street Development Phase Iwill be able to successfully reach and maintain a stabilized occupancy of at least 93 percentfollowing its entrance into the rental market. The subject property will be competitively positionedwith existing market rate and LIHTC communities in the 15th Street Market Area and the units willbe well received by the target market. We recommend proceeding with the project as planned.

We do not believe that the proposed development of the units at 15th Street Development Phase Iwill have a negative impact on the existing LIHTC communities in the market area.

_______________________Tad Scepaniak

Principal

Income/Unit Size Income LimitsUnits

Proposed

Renter Income

Qualification %

Total

DemandSupply

Net

Demand

Capture

RateAbsorption

Average

Market Rent

Market Rents

Band

Proposed

Rents

60% PBRA $12,690 - $25,200One Bedroom Units $12,690 - $25,200 12 30.3% 860 0 860 1.4% 4 months $675 $534-$1,140 $300

60% Units $18,690 - $26,880One Bedroom Units $18,690 - $25,200 28 9.7% 275 0 275 10.2% 8 months $675 $610-$1,335 $500Two Bedroom Units $22,350 - $26,880 40 5.3% 151 0 151 26.4% 8 months $768 $610-$1,335 $585

80% Units $25,350 - $35,840Two Bedroom Units $25,350 - $35,840 16 12.2% 347 0 347 4.6% 8 months $768 $610-$1,335 $685

Project Total $12,690 - $35,84060% PBRA $12,690 - $25,200 12 30.3% 860 0 860 1.4% 2 months60% Units $18,690 - $26,880 52 17.1% 486 0 486 10.7% 8 months80% Units $25,350 - $35,840 16 12.2% 347 0 347 4.6% 8 months

LIHTC Units $12,690 - $26,880 64 32.3% 918 0 918 7.0% 8 monthsTotal Units $12,690 - $35,840 80 42.7% 1,213 0 1,213 6.6% 8 months

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 70: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 1 Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions

Page 59

APPENDIX 1 UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS

In conducting the analysis, we will make the following assumptions, except as otherwise noted inour report:

1. There are no zoning, building, safety, environmental or other federal, state or local laws,regulations or codes which would prohibit or impair the development, marketing or operation of thesubject project in the manner contemplated in our report, and the subject project will be developed,marketed and operated in compliance with all applicable laws, regulations and codes.

2. No material changes will occur in (a) any federal, state or local law, regulation or code(including, without limitation, the Internal Revenue Code) affecting the subject project, or (b) anyfederal, state or local grant, financing or other program which is to be utilized in connection with thesubject project.

3. The local, national and international economies will not deteriorate, and there will be nosignificant changes in interest rates or in rates of inflation or deflation.

4. The subject project will be served by adequate transportation, utilities and governmentalfacilities.

5. The subject project will not be subjected to any war, energy crisis, embargo, strike, earthquake,flood, fire or other casualty or act of God.

6. The subject project will be on the market at the time and with the product anticipated in ourreport, and at the price position specified in our report.

7. The subject project will be developed, marketed and operated in a highly professional manner.

8. No projects will be developed which will be in competition with the subject project, except asset forth in our report.

9. There are neither existing judgments nor any pending or threatened litigation, which couldhinder the development, marketing or operation of the subject project.

Page 71: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 1 Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions

Page 60

The analysis will be subject to the following limiting conditions, except as otherwise noted in ourreport:

1. The analysis contained in this report necessarily incorporates numerous estimates andassumptions with respect to property performance, general and local business and economicconditions, the absence of material changes in the competitive environment and other matters.Some estimates or assumptions, however, inevitably will not materialize, and unanticipated eventsand circumstances may occur; therefore, actual results achieved during the period covered by ouranalysis will vary from our estimates and the variations may be material.

2. Our absorption estimates are based on the assumption that the product recommendations setforth in our report will be followed without material deviation.

3. All estimates of future dollar amounts are based on the current value of the dollar, without anyallowance for inflation or deflation.

4. We have no responsibility for considerations requiring expertise in other fields. Suchconsiderations include, but are not limited to, legal matters, environmental matters, architecturalmatters, geologic considerations, such as soils and seismic stability, and civil, mechanical, electrical,structural and other engineering matters.

5. Information, estimates and opinions contained in or referred to in our report, which we haveobtained from sources outside of this office, are assumed to be reliable and have not beenindependently verified.

6. The conclusions and recommendations in our report are subject to these UnderlyingAssumptions and Limiting Conditions and to any additional assumptions or conditions set forth inthe body of our report.

Page 72: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 2 Analyst Certifications

Page 61

APPENDIX 2 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

I certify that, to the best of my knowledge and belief:

The statements of fact contained in this report are true and correct.

The reported analyses, opinions, and conclusions are limited only by the reportedassumptions and limiting conditions, and is my personal, unbiased professional analyses,opinions, and conclusions.

I have no present or prospective interest in the property that is the subject of thisreport, and I have no personal interest or bias with respect to the parties involved.

My compensation is not contingent on an action or event resulting from the analysis,opinions, or conclusions in, or the use of, this report.

The market study was not based on tax credit approval or approval of a loan. Mycompensation is not contingent upon the reporting of a predetermined demand thatfavors the cause of the client, the attainment of a stipulated result, or the occurrence ofa subsequent event.

My analyses, opinions, and conclusions were developed, and this report has beenprepared, in conformity with the requirements of the Code of Professional Ethics andthe Standards of Professional Practice as set forth in the Uniform Standards ofProfessional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) as adopted by the Appraisal Standards Board ofthe Appraisal Foundation.

I affirm that I have made a physical inspection of the market area and the subjectproperty and that Information has been used in the full study of the need and demandfor the proposed units.

To the best of my knowledge, the market can support the proposed project as shown inthe study. I understand that any misrepresentation of this statement may result in thedenial of further participation in DCA’s rental housing programs.

DCA may rely on the representation made in the market study provided and thisdocument is assignable to other lenders that are parties to the DCA loan transaction.

__________________Tad ScepaniakPrincipalReal Property Research Group, Inc.

Warning: Title 18 U.S.C. 1001, provides in part that whoever knowingly and willfully makes or uses a document containing

any false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or entry, in any manner in the jurisdiction of any department or agency of the

United States, shall be fined not more than $10,000 or imprisoned for not more than five years or both.

jdearolph
Highlight
Page 73: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 3 NCHMA Certification

Page 62

APPENDIX 3 NCHMA CERTIFICATION

This market study has been prepared by Real Property Research Group, Inc., a member in good standingof the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA). This study has been prepared inconformance with the standards adopted by NCHMA for the market analysts’ industry. These standardsinclude the Standard Definitions of Key Terms Used in Market Studies for Affordable Housing Projectsand Model Content Standards for the Content of Market Studies for Affordable Housing Projects. TheseStandards are designed to enhance the quality of market studies and to make them easier to prepare,understand, and use by market analysts and by the end users. These Standards are voluntary only, andno legal responsibility regarding their use is assumed by the National Council of Housing MarketAnalysts.

Real Property Research Group, Inc. is duly qualified and experienced in providing market analysis forAffordable Housing. The company’s principals participate in NCHMA educational and informationsharing programs to maintain the highest professional standards and state-of-the-art knowledge. RealProperty Research Group, Inc. is an independent market analyst. No principal or employee of RealProperty Research Group, Inc. has any financial interest whatsoever in the development for which thisanalysis has been undertaken.

While the document specifies Real Property Research Group, Inc., the certification is always signed bythe individual completing the study and attesting to the certification.

Real Property Research Group, Inc.

________Tad Scepaniak___________Name

__________Principal_____________Title

______ _ April 17, 2015___________

Date

jdearolph
Highlight
jdearolph
Highlight
Page 74: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 4 Analyst Resumes

Page 63

APPENDIX 4 ANALYST RESUMES

ROBERT M. LEFENFELD

Mr. Lefenfeld is the Managing Principal of the firm with over 30 years of experience in the field ofresidential market research. Before founding Real Property Research Group in February, 2001, Bobserved as an officer of research subsidiaries of Reznick Fedder & Silverman and Legg Mason.Between 1998 and 2001, Bob was Managing Director of RF&S Realty Advisors, conductingresidential market studies throughout the United States. From 1987 to 1995, Bob served as SeniorVice President of Legg Mason Realty Group, managing the firm’s consulting practice and serving aspublisher of a Mid-Atlantic residential data service, Housing Market Profiles. Prior to joining LeggMason, Bob spent ten years with the Baltimore Metropolitan Council as a housing economist. Bobalso served as Research Director for Regency Homes between 1995 and 1998, analyzing marketsthroughout the Eastern United States and evaluating the company’s active building operation.

Bob oversees the execution and completion of all of the firm’s research assignments, ranging from astrategic assessment of new development and building opportunities throughout a region to thedevelopment and refinement of a particular product on a specific site. He combines extensiveexperience in the real estate industry with capabilities in database development and informationmanagement. Over the years, he has developed a series of information products and proprietarydatabases serving real estate professionals.

Bob has lectured and written extensively on the subject of residential real estate market analysis.Bob serves as an adjunct professor for the Graduate Programs in Real Estate Development, School ofArchitecture, Planning and Preservation, University of Maryland College Park. He has served asNational Chair of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA) and currently serves asChair of the Organization’s FHA Committee. Bob is also a member of the Baltimore chapter ofLambda Alpha Land Economics Society.

Areas of Concentration:

Strategic Assessments: Mr. Lefenfeld has conducted numerous corridor analyses throughoutthe United States to assist building and real estate companies in evaluating developmentopportunities. Such analyses document demographic, economic, competitive, and proposeddevelopment activity by submarket and discuss opportunities for development.

Feasibility Analysis: Mr. Lefenfeld has conducted feasibility studies for various types ofresidential developments for builders and developers. Subjects for these analyses have includedfor-sale single-family and townhouse developments, age-restricted rental and for-saledevelopments, large multi-product PUDs, urban renovations and continuing care facilities forthe elderly.

Information Products: Bob has developed a series of proprietary databases to assist clients inmonitoring growth trends. Subjects of these databases have included for sale housing, pipelineinformation, and rental communities.

Education:

Master of Urban and Regional Planning; The George Washington University.Bachelor of Arts - Political Science; Northeastern University.

Page 75: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 4 Analyst Resumes

Page 64

TAD SCEPANIAK

Tad Scepaniak directs the Atlanta office of Real Property Research Group and leads the firm’saffordable housing practice. Tad directs the firm’s efforts in the southeast and south central UnitedStates and has worked extensively in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee,Iowa, and Michigan. He specializes in the preparation of market feasibility studies for rental housingcommunities, including market-rate apartments developed under the HUD 221(d)(4) program andaffordable housing built under the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program. Along with work fordeveloper clients, Tad is the key contact for research contracts with the North Carolina, SouthCarolina, Georgia, Michigan, and Iowa Housing Finance agencies. Tad is also responsible fordevelopment and implementation of many of the firm’s automated systems.

Tad is Vice Chair of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA) and previously servedas the Co-Chair of Standards Committee. He has taken a lead role in the development of theorganization's Standard Definitions and Recommended Market Study Content, and he has authoredand co-authored white papers on market areas, derivation of market rents, and selection ofcomparable properties. Tad is also a founding member of the Atlanta chapter of the Lambda AlphaLand Economics Society.

Areas of Concentration:

Low Income Tax Credit Rental Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has worked extensively with the LowIncome Tax Credit program throughout the United States, with special emphasis on theSoutheast and Mid-Atlantic regions.

Senior Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has conducted feasibility analysis for a variety of senior orientedrental housing. The majority of this work has been under the Low Income Tax Credit program;however his experience includes assisted living facilities and market rate senior rentalcommunities.

Market Rate Rental Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has conducted various projects for developers ofmarket rate rental housing. The studies produced for these developers are generally used todetermine the rental housing needs of a specific submarket and to obtain financing.

Public Housing Authority Consultation: Tad has worked with Housing Authorities throughout theUnited States to document trends rental and for sale housing market trends to betterunderstand redevelopment opportunities. He has completed studies examining developmentopportunities for housing authorities through the Choice Neighborhood Initiative or otherprograms in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and, Tennessee.

Education:

Bachelor of Science – Marketing; Berry College – Rome, Georgia

Page 76: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 5 DCA Checklist

Page 65

APPENDIX 5 DCA CHECKLIST

I understand that by initializing (or checking) the following items, I am stating that those items areincluded and/or addressed in the report. If an item is not checked, a full explanation is included in thereport. A list listing of page number(s) is equivalent to check or initializing.

The report was written according to DCA's market study requirements, that the information included isaccurate and that the report can be relied upon by DCA as a true assessment of the low-income housingrental market.

I also certify that I have inspected the subject property as well as all rent comparables.

Signed: Date: April 17, 2015

Tad Scepaniak

A. Executive Summary

1. Project Description:

i. Brief description of the project location including address and/or position

relative to the closest cross-street...............................................................................................Page(s) v

ii. Construction and Occupancy Types ...........................................................................................Page(s) v

iii. Unit mix, including bedrooms, bathrooms, square footage, Income targeting,

rents, and utility allowance ..........................................................................................................Page(s) v

iv. Any additional subsidies available, including project based rental assistance

(PBRA) ........................................................................................................................................Page(s) v

v. Brief description of proposed amenities and how they compare with existing

properties ....................................................................................................................................Page(s) v

2. Site Description/Evaluation:

i. A brief description of physical features of the site and adjacent parcels.....................................Page(s) v

ii. A brief overview of the neighborhood land composition (residential,

commercial, industrial, agricultural).............................................................................................Page(s) v

iii. A discussion of site access and visibility .....................................................................................Page(s) v

iv. Any significant positive or negative aspects of the subject site...................................................Page(s) v

v. A brief summary of the site’s proximity to neighborhood services including

shopping, medical care, employment concentrations, public transportation, etc ........................Page(s) v

vi. An overall conclusion of the site’s appropriateness for the proposed

development................................................................................................................................Page(s) v

3. Market Area Definition:

i. A brief definition of the primary market area (PMA) including boundaries and

their approximate distance from the subject site ........................................................................Page(s) vi

4. Community Demographic Data:

i. Current and projected household and population counts for the PMA........................................Page(s) vi

ii. Household tenure including any trends in rental rates. ...............................................................Page(s) vi

iii. Household income level. .............................................................................................................Page(s) vi

Page 77: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 5 DCA Checklist

Page 66

iv. Discuss Impact of foreclosed, abandoned / vacant, single and multi-family

homes, and commercial properties in the PMA of the proposed development. ..........................Page(s) vi

5. Economic Data:

i. Trends in employment for the county and/or region....................................................................Page(s) vii

ii. Employment by sector for the primary market area. ...................................................................Page(s) vii

iii. Unemployment trends for the county and/or region for the past five years.................................Page(s) vii

iv. Brief discussion of recent or planned employment contractions or expansions..........................Page(s) vii

v. Overall conclusion regarding the stability of the county’s economic environment.. ....................Page(s) vii

6. Project Specific Affordability and Demand Analysis:

i. Number of renter households income qualified for the proposed development.

For senior projects, this should be age and income qualified renter households........................Page(s) viii

ii. Overall estimate of demand based on DCA’s demand methodology..........................................Page(s) viii

iii. Capture rates for the proposed development including the overall project, all

LIHTC units (excluding any PBRA or market rate units), and a conclusion

regarding the achievability of these capture rates.......................................................................Page(s) viii

7. Competitive Rental Analysis

i. An analysis of the competitive properties in the PMA. ...............................................................Page(s) viii

ii. Number of properties...................................................................................................................Page(s) viii

iii. Rent bands for each bedroom type proposed. ............................................................................Page(s) viii

iv. Average market rents. .................................................................................................................Page(s) viii

8. Absorption/Stabilization Estimate:

i. Expected absorption rate of the subject property (units per month)............................................Page(s) ixii. Expected absorption rate by AMI targeting. ................................................................................Page(s) ixiii. Months required for the project to reach a stabilized occupancy of 93 percent. .........................Page(s) ix

9. Overall Conclusion:

i. A narrative detailing key conclusions of the report including the analyst’s

opinion regarding the proposed development’s potential for success.........................................Page(s) ix10. Summary Table...................................................................................................................................Page(s) ix

B. Project Description

1. Project address and location. ..............................................................................................................Page(s) 5

2. Construction type. ...............................................................................................................................Page(s) 5

3. Occupancy Type. ................................................................................................................................Page(s) 3, 5

4. Special population target (if applicable). .............................................................................................Page(s) 5

5. Number of units by bedroom type and income targeting (AMI)...........................................................Page(s) 5

6. Unit size, number of bedrooms, and structure type. ...........................................................................Page(s) 3, 5

7. Rents and Utility Allowances. ..............................................................................................................Page(s) 5

8. Existing or proposed project based rental assistance. ........................................................................Page(s) 5

9. Proposed development amenities. ......................................................................................................Page(s) 3, 5

10. For rehab proposals, current occupancy levels, rents, tenant incomes (if applicable),

and scope of work including an estimate of the total and per unit construction cost. .........................Page(s) N/A

11. Projected placed-in-service date. ........................................................................................................Page(s) 4, 5

C. Site Evaluation

1. Date of site / comparables visit and name of site inspector. ...............................................................Page(s) 1

2. Site description

i. Physical features of the site. .......................................................................................................Page(s) 6

ii. Positive and negative attributes of the site..................................................................................Page(s) 6

Page 78: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 5 DCA Checklist

Page 67

iii. Detailed description of surrounding land uses including their condition......................................Page(s) 6

3. Description of the site’s physical proximity to surrounding roads, transportation,

amenities, employment, and community services...............................................................................Page(s) 12-15

4. Color photographs of the subject property, surrounding neighborhood, and street

scenes with a description of each vantage point.................................................................................Page(s) 8-9

5. Neighborhood Characteristics

i. Map identifying the location of the project. ..................................................................................Page(s) 7

ii. List of area amenities including their distance (in miles) to the subject site. ...............................Page(s) 13

iii. Map of the subject site in proximity to neighborhood amenities..................................................Page(s) 14

6. Map identifying existing low-income housing projects located within the PMA and

their distance from the subject site......................................................................................................Page(s) 44

7. Road or infrastructure improvements planned or under construction in the PMA...............................Page(s) 12

8. Discussion of accessibility, ingress/egress, and visibility of the subject site. ......................................Page(s) 12

9. Visible environmental or miscellaneous site concerns. .......................................................................Page(s) 12

10. Overall conclusions about the subject site, as it relates to the marketability of the

proposed development........................................................................................................................Page(s) 15

D. Market Area

1. Definition of the primary market area (PMA) including boundaries and their

approximate distance from the subject site........................................................................................Page(s) 16

2. Map Identifying subject property’s location within market area ...........................................................Page(s) 17

E. Community Demographic Data

1. Population Trends

i. Total Population. .........................................................................................................................Page(s) 26

ii. Population by age group. ............................................................................................................Page(s) 28

iii. Number of elderly and non-elderly. .............................................................................................Page(s) 28

iv. Special needs population (if applicable)......................................................................................Page(s) NA2. Household Trends

i. Total number of households and average household size. Page(s) 26

ii. Household by tenure. ..................................................................................................................Page(s) 29

iii. Households by income ................................................................................................................Page(s) 31

iv. Renter households by number of persons in the household. ......................................................Page(s) 30

F. Employment Trends

1. Total jobs in the county or region. .......................................................................................................Page(s) 20

2. Total jobs by industry – numbers and percentages. ...........................................................................Page(s) 21

3. Major current employers, product or service, total employees, anticipated

expansions/contractions, as well as newly planned employers and their impact on

employment in the market area.........................................................................................................Page(s) 22

4. Unemployment trends, total workforce figures, and number and percentage

unemployed for the county over the past five years..........................................................................Page(s) 19

5. Map of the site and location of major employment concentrations. ..................................................Page(s) 23

6. Analysis of data and overall conclusions relating to the impact on housing demand........................Page(s) 23-24

G. Project-specific Affordability and Demand Analysis

1. Income Restrictions / Limits. .............................................................................................................Page(s) 50

Page 79: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 5 DCA Checklist

Page 68

2. Affordability estimates. ......................................................................................................................Page(s) 51

3. Components of Demand

i. Demand from new households..................................................................................................Page(s) 54

ii. Demand from existing households. ...........................................................................................Page(s) 54

iii. Elderly Homeowners likely to convert to rentership. .................................................................Page(s) 54

iv. Other sources of demand (if applicable). Page(s) 54

4. Net Demand, Capture Rate, and Stabilization Calculations

i. Net demand

1. By AMI Level .......................................................................................................................Page(s) 54

2. By floor plan ........................................................................................................................Page(s) 54

ii. Capture rates

1. By AMI level ........................................................................................................................Page(s) 54

2. By floor plan ........................................................................................................................Page(s) 54

3. Capture rate analysis chart .................................................................................................Page(s) viii

H. Competitive Rental Analysis

1. Detailed project information for each competitive rental community surveyed

i. Charts summarizing competitive data including a comparison of the proposed

project’s rents, square footage, amenities, to comparable rental communities in

the market area. ........................................................................................................................Page(s) 36-38, 42

2. Additional rental market information

i. An analysis of voucher and certificates available in the market area..........................................Page(s) 44

ii. Lease-up history of competitive developments in the market area. ............................................Page(s) 40

iii. Tenant profile and waiting list of existing phase (if applicable) ...................................................Page(s) N/A

iv. Competitive data for single-family rentals, mobile homes, etc. in rural areas if

lacking sufficient comparables (if applicable). .............................................................................Page(s) N/A

3. Map showing competitive projects in relation to the subject property. ................................................Page(s) 35 & 40

4. Description of proposed amenities for the subject property and assessment of

quality and compatibility with competitive rental communities. ...........................................................Page(s) 34-42

5. For senior communities, an overview / evaluation of family properties in the PMA. ...........................Page(s) 34-42

6. Subject property’s long-term impact on competitive rental communities in the PMA..........................Page(s) 57

7. Competitive units planned or under construction the market area

i. Name, address/location, owner, number of units, configuration, rent structure,

estimated date of market entry, and any other relevant information. ..........................................Page(s) 44

8. Narrative or chart discussing how competitive properties compare with the proposed

development with respect to total units, rents, occupancy, location, etc.............................................Page(s) 54

i. Average market rent and rent advantage....................................................................................Page(s) 42

9. Discussion of demand as it relates to the subject property and all comparable DCA

funded projects in the market area......................................................................................................Page(s) 36-37, 43

10. Rental trends in the PMA for the last five years including average occupancy trends

and projection for the next two years. .................................................................................................Page(s)

11. Impact of foreclosed, abandoned, and vacant single and multi-family homes as well

commercial properties in the market area. ..........................................................................................Page(s) 45

12. Discussion of primary housing voids in the PMA as they relate to the subject property. ....................Page(s) N/A

I. Absorption and Stabilization Rates

1. Anticipated absorption rate of the subject property.............................................................................Page(s) 57

2. Stabilization period. .............................................................................................................................Page(s) 57

Page 80: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 5 DCA Checklist

Page 69

J. Interviews...................................................................................................................................................Page(s) 43

K. Conclusions and Recommendations

1. Conclusion as to the impact of the subject property on PMA..............................................................Page(s) 57

2. Recommendation as the subject property’s viability in PMA...............................................................Page(s) 58

L. Signed Statement Requirements.............................................................................................................Page(s) App.

Page 81: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 6 NCHMA Checklist

Page 70

APPENDIX 6 NCHMA CHECKLIST

Introduction: Members of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts provides a checklist referencingall components of their market study. This checklist is intended to assist readers on the location and content ofissues relevant to the evaluation and analysis of market studies. The page number of each component referencedis noted in the right column. In cases where the item is not relevant, the author has indicated "N/A" or notapplicable. Where a conflict with or variation from client standards or client requirements exists, the author hasindicated a "V" (variation) with a comment explaining the conflict. More detailed notations or explanations arealso acceptable.

Component (*First occurring page is noted) *Page(s)

Executive Summary

1. Executive Summary

Project Summary

2. Project description with exact number of bedrooms and bathsproposed, income limitation, proposed rents, and utility allowances

3,5

3. Utilities (and utility sources) included in rent 3, 5

4. Project design description 3,5

5. Unit and project amenities; parking 3,5

6. Public programs included 3

7. Target population description 3

8. Date of construction/preliminary completion 4

9. If rehabilitation, existing unit breakdown and rents N/A

10. Reference to review/status of project plans 3

Location and Market Area

11. Market area/secondary market area description 16

12. Concise description of the site and adjacent parcels 6

13. Description of site characteristics 6

14. Site photos/maps 7 - 9

15. Map of community services 14

16. Visibility and accessibility evaluation 12

17. Crime information 10

Employment and Economy

18. Employment by industry 21

19. Historical unemployment rate 19

20. Area major employers 22

21. Five-year employment growth 20

Page 82: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 6 NCHMA Checklist

Page 71

22. Typical wages by occupation N/A

23. Discussion of commuting patterns of area workers 18

Demographic Characteristics

24. Population and household estimates and projections 25

25. Area building permits 25

26. Distribution of income 29

27. Households by tenure 28

Competitive Environment

28. Comparable property profiles 72

29. Map of comparable properties 40

30. Comparable property photos 72

31. Existing rental housing evaluation 33

32. Comparable property discussion 33

33. Area vacancy rates, including rates for tax credit and government-subsidized communities

41

34. Comparison of subject property to comparable properties 54

35. Availability of Housing Choice Vouchers 44

36. Identification of waiting lists 39

37. Description of overall rental market including share of market-rateand affordable properties

39

38. List of existing LIHTC properties 72

39. Discussion of future changes in housing stock 44

40. Discussion of availability and cost of other affordable housingoptions, including homeownership

33

41. Tax credit and other planned or under construction rentalcommunities in market area

44

Analysis/Conclusions

42. Calculation and analysis of Capture Rate 52

43. Calculation and analysis of Penetration Rate 33

44. Evaluation of proposed rent levels 54

45. Derivation of Achievable Market Rent and Market Advantage 42

46. Derivation of Achievable Restricted Rent N/A

47. Precise statement of key conclusions 46

48. Market strengths and weaknesses impacting project 54

49. Recommendation and/or modification to project description 54, ifapplicable

50. Discussion of subject property’s impact on existing housing 54

51. Absorption projection with issues impacting performance 57

52. Discussion of risks or other mitigating circumstances impacting 46, if

Page 83: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 6 NCHMA Checklist

Page 72

project applicable

53. Interviews with area housing stakeholders 43

Certifications

54. Preparation date of report Cover

55. Date of field work 1

56. Certifications App.

57. Statement of qualifications 62

58. Sources of data not otherwise identified N/A

59. Utility allowance schedule N/A

Page 84: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

15th Street Development Phase I | Appendix 7 Rental Community Profiles

Page 73

APPENDIX 7 RENTAL COMMUNITY PROFILES

Community Address City State Phone Number Date Surveyed Contact

Cedar Ridge 517 Richmond Hill Rd. W. Augusta GA 706-793-8415 5/6/2015 Property Manager

Cedarwood 527 Richmond Hill Rd. W. Augusta GA 706-790-1003 5/6/2015 Property Manager

The Lenox 3211 Wrightsboro Rd. Augusta GA 706-736-8428 5/6/2015 Property Manager

Georgian Place 1700 Valley Park Ct. Augusta GA 706-733-7829 5/6/2015 Property Manager

Magnolia Park 2133 Vandivere Rd. Augusta GA 706-738-9912 5/6/2015 Property Manager

Augusta Spring 1730 Sibley Rd. Augusta GA 706-733-9200 4/28/2015 Property Manager

Linden Square 1425 Linden St. Augusta GA 706-722-0017 5/4/2015 Property Manager

Heritage 3205 Heritage Cir. Augusta GA 706-250-5323 5/6/2015 Property Manager

Forest Hills 2801 Walton Way Augusta GA 706-364-7490 5/6/2015 Property Manager

Forest Brook 3122 Damascus Rd. Augusta GA 706-738-8440 5/6/2015 Property Manager

Hickman Arms 1011 Hickman Rd. Augusta GA 803-215-1940 5/6/2015 Property Manager

High Point Crossing 524 Richmond Hill Rd W. Augusta GA 706-793-3697 5/6/2015 Property Manager

Maxwell House 1002 Greene St. Augusta GA 706-724-1927 5/6/2015 Property Manager

Richmond Summit 744 Broad St. Augusta GA 706-722-0380 5/4/2015 Property Manager

Independent Living Horizons VI 2950 Richmond Hill Rd. Augusta GA 706-312-2950 4/28/2015 Property Manager

Woodhaven 1840 Killingsworth Rd. Augusta GA 706-733-4832 5/7/2015 Property Manager

Page 85: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Research Group

Augusta Spring Senior Community Profile1730 Sibley RoadAugusta,GA 30909

Property Manager: --

Opened in 1995Last Major Rehab in

CommunityType: LIHTC - Elderly

200 UnitsStructure Type: Garden

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

--$470

--$594

------

--660--

840------

--$0.71

--$0.71

------

--50.0%

--50.0%

------

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:Heat Fuel: Gas/Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Gardening:

Walking Pth:

Library:Arts&Crafts:Health Rms:Guest Suite:Conv Store:

ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 4/28/2015) (2)

Elevator:

1.0% Vacant (2 units vacant) as of 4/28/2015

FeaturesStandard: In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Grabbar;

Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum

Select Units: Dishwasher; Disposal

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: --

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking: Free Surface Parking

CommentsWaitlists: 1BR- 8-10 months, 2BR- 30days.

Beauty Salon:

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $1.0%4/28/15 $470 $594 --0.0%4/22/09 $415 $508 --

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeature1 1Phase 1 / Garden $543 660 LIHTC/ 50%$.8245--1 1Phase 1 / Garden $600 660 LIHTC/ 60%$.9145--1 1Phase 2 / Garden $554 660 LIHTC/ 50%$.845--1 1Phase 2 / Garden $665 660 LIHTC/ 60%$1.015--2 1Phase 1 / Garden $652 840 LIHTC/ 50%$.785--2 1Phase 1 / Garden $669 840 LIHTC/ 60%$.805--2 1Phase 2 / Garden $665 840 LIHTC/ 50%$.7945--2 1Phase 2 / Garden $798 840 LIHTC/ 60%$.9545--

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-012202Augusta Spring

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of utilities and concessions. (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 86: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Research Group

Independent Living Horizons VI Senior Community Profile2950 Richmond Hill Rd.Augusta,GA 30906

Property Manager: --

Opened in 2000

CommunityType: Deep Subsidy-Elderly

40 UnitsStructure Type: Garden

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

--$495

----------

--560----------

--$0.88

----------

--100.0%

----------

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:Heat Fuel: Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Gardening:

Walking Pth:

Library:Arts&Crafts:Health Rms:Guest Suite:Conv Store:

ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 4/28/2015) (2)

Elevator:

2.5% Vacant (1 units vacant) as of 4/28/2015

FeaturesStandard: In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C; Grabbar; Emergency

Response

Select Units: --

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: --

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking: Free Surface Parking

CommentsSec. 8 rent is contract rent. Wait list 1.5 years.

FKA Walton Terrace.

1- 2BR mgr. unit.

Beauty Salon:

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $2.5%4/28/15 $495 -- --

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeature1 1Single story $495 560 LIHTC/ 30%$.8840--

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-021243Independent Living Horizons VI

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of utilities and concessions. (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 87: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Research Group

Linden Square Senior Community Profile1425 Linden St.Augusta,GA 30901

Property Manager: --

Opened in 2003

CommunityType: LIHTC - Elderly

48 UnitsStructure Type: 2-Story Garden

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

--$505

--$600

------

--663--

890------

--$0.76

--$0.67

------

--75.0%

--25.0%

------

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:Heat Fuel: Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Gardening:

Walking Pth:

Library:Arts&Crafts:Health Rms:Guest Suite:Conv Store:

ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 5/4/2015) (2)

Elevator:

0.0% Vacant (0 units vacant) as of 5/4/2015

FeaturesStandard: Dishwasher; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony;

Grabbar; Emergency Response

Select Units: --

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: Fence; Gated Entry; Keyed Bldg Entry

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking: Free Surface Parking

CommentsWaitlist.

Beauty Salon:

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $0.0%5/4/15 $505 $600 --0.0%5/6/13 $489 $583 --0.0%5/4/09 $443 $530 --

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeature1 1Garden $464 663 LIHTC/ 50%$.7015--1 1Garden $525 663 LIHTC/ 60%$.7913--1 1Garden $550 663 Market$.838--2 1Garden $555 890 LIHTC/ 50%$.625--2 1Garden $625 890 LIHTC/ 60%$.705--2 1Garden $650 890 Market$.732--

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-012204Linden Square

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of utilities and concessions. (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 88: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Research Group

Richmond Summit Senior Community Profile744 Broad St.Augusta,GA

Property Manager: --

Opened in 1921Last Major Rehab in

CommunityType: Deep Subsidy-Elderly

135 UnitsStructure Type: 8-Story Mid Rise

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

--$635

--$765

------

--576--

1,107------

--$1.10

--$0.69

------

--95.6%

--4.4%

------

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:Heat Fuel: Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Gardening:

Walking Pth:

Library:Arts&Crafts:Health Rms:Guest Suite:Conv Store:

ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 5/4/2015) (2)

Elevator:

0.0% Vacant (0 units vacant) as of 5/4/2015

FeaturesStandard: Dishwasher; Window A/C; Grabbar

Select Units: --

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: Keyed Bldg Entry

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking: Free Surface Parking

CommentsWaitlist.

Section 8 rents are contract rents

Beauty Salon:

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $0.0%5/4/15 $635 $765 --7.4%5/6/13 $613 $675 --0.0%5/4/09 $0 $0 --

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeature1 1Mid Rise - Elevator $635 576 Section 8$1.10129--2 1Mid Rise - Elevator $765 1,107 Section 8$.696--

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-012249Richmond Summit

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of utilities and concessions. (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 89: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Group Research Cedar Ridge Multifamily Community Profile

517 Richmond Hill Rd WAugusta,GA 30906

Property Manager: --

Opened in 1986

CommunityType: Market Rate - General

75 UnitsStructure Type: Garden

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

$410$480

--$558

------

288650--

907------

$1.42$0.74

--$0.61

------

12.0%80.0%

--8.0%

------

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:

Heat Fuel: Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Pool-Outdr:

Playground:

Basketball:Tennis:

Volleyball:CarWash:

BusinessCtr:ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 5/6/2015) (2)

Elevator:

2.7% Vacant (2 units vacant) as of 5/6/2015

FeaturesStandard: Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C;

Patio/Balcony

Select Units: --

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: --

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking 1: Free Surface Parking

CommentsVacancies are both Eff units.

Never run specials.

Parking 2: --Fee: -- Fee: --

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $2.7%5/6/15 $480 $558 --1.3%5/29/14 $480 $750 --1.3%2/14/07 $435 $513 --8.0%2/8/06 $425 $500 --

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeatureEff 1Garden $410 288 Market$1.429--1 1Garden $480 650 Market$.7460--2 1Garden $550 864 Market$.643--2 2Garden $565 950 Market$.593--

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-008752Cedar Ridge

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 90: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Group Research Cedarwood Multifamily Community Profile

527 Richmond Hill Rd WAugusta,GA 30906

Property Manager: --

Opened in 1975Last Major Rehab in 2007

CommunityType: LIHTC - General

184 UnitsStructure Type: Garden/TH

Owner: Progressive Redevelopment

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

--$420

--$485

--$548

--

--850--

996--

1,200--

--$0.49

--$0.49

--$0.46

--

--30.4%

--56.5%

--13.0%

--

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:

Heat Fuel: Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Pool-Outdr:

Playground:

Basketball:Tennis:

Volleyball:CarWash:

BusinessCtr:ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 5/6/2015) (2)

Elevator:

1.1% Vacant (2 units vacant) as of 5/6/2015

FeaturesStandard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups);

Central A/C; Wood-burning Fireplace; Patio/Balcony; Storage (In Unit)

Select Units: --

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: --

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking 1: Free Surface Parking

CommentsWait list.

Vacancies: 1- 1BR & 1- 3BR

Parking 2: --Fee: -- Fee: --

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $1.1%5/6/15 $420 $485 $5480.0%5/29/14 $405 $468 $5553.3%5/6/13 $404 $466 $5490.5%5/31/12 $404 $466 $549

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeature1 1Garden $445 850 LIHTC/ 50%$.5237--1 1Garden $228 850 LIHTC/ 30%$.278--1 1Garden $475 850 LIHTC/ 60%$.5611--2 1.5Townhouse $266 1,150 LIHTC/ 30%$.234--2 1.5Townhouse $518 1,150 LIHTC/ 50%$.4516--2 1.5Townhouse $550 1,150 LIHTC/ 60%$.484--2 1.5Garden $266 950 LIHTC/ 30%$.2812--2 1.5Garden $518 950 LIHTC/ 50%$.5552--2 1.5Garden $550 950 LIHTC/ 60%$.5816--3 2Garden $675 1,200 LIHTC/ 60%$.565--3 2Garden $576 1,200 LIHTC/ 50%$.4815--3 2Garden $284 1,200 LIHTC/ 30%$.244--

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-008753Cedarwood

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 91: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Group Research Forest Brook Multifamily Community Profile

3122 Damascus RdAugusta,GA 30909

Property Manager: --

Opened in 1984Last Major Rehab in 1999

CommunityType: LIHTC - General

161 UnitsStructure Type: 2-Story Garden

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

--$450

--$538

--$725

--

--580--

878--

1,250--

--$0.78

--$0.61

--$0.58

--

--35.4%

--59.6%

--5.0%

--

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:

Heat Fuel: Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Pool-Outdr:

Playground:

Basketball:Tennis:

Volleyball:CarWash:

BusinessCtr:ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 5/6/2015) (2)

Elevator:

0.0% Vacant (0 units vacant) as of 5/6/2015

FeaturesStandard: Dishwasher; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C

Select Units: --

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: Gated Entry; Cameras

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking 1: Free Surface Parking

CommentsWaitlist.

Parking 2: --Fee: -- Fee: --

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $0.0%5/6/15 $450 $538 $7250.0%5/27/14 $450 $538 $6750.0%6/7/12 $450 $538 $6756.2%3/23/11 $450 $538 $675

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeature1 1Garden $450 580 LIHTC/ 60%$.7857--2 1Garden $525 840 LIHTC/ 60%$.6348--2 2Garden $550 916 LIHTC/ 60%$.6048--3 2Garden $725 1,250 LIHTC/ 60%$.588--

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-008773Forest Brook

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 92: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Group Research Forest Hills Multifamily Community Profile

2801 Walton WayAugusta,GA

Property Manager: Blanchard & Calhoun

Opened in 1945Last Major Rehab in 1995

CommunityType: Market Rate - General

72 UnitsStructure Type: Garden

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

--$635

--$723

------

--714--

1,050------

--$0.89

--$0.69

------

--------------

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:

Heat Fuel: Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Pool-Outdr:

Playground:

Basketball:Tennis:

Volleyball:CarWash:

BusinessCtr:ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 5/6/2015) (2)

Elevator:

0.0% Vacant (0 units vacant) as of 5/6/2015

FeaturesStandard: Dishwasher; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C

Select Units: Disposal; Patio/Balcony

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: --

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking 1: Free Surface Parking

CommentsMgt could not provide breakdown of # of units by floor plan.

Wait list for 1BR units.

Parking 2: --Fee: -- Fee: --

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $0.0%5/6/15 $635 $723 --0.0%5/27/14 $605 $698 --0.0%6/7/12 $595 $688 --1.4%3/23/11 $565 $648 --

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeature1 1Garden $635 714 Market$.89----2 2Garden $695 1,135 Market$.61----2 1Garden $750 965 Market$.78----

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-014373Forest Hills

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 93: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Group Research Georgian Place Multifamily Community Profile

1700 Valley Park CtAugusta,GA 30909

Property Manager: --

Opened in 1968

CommunityType: Market Rate - General

324 UnitsStructure Type: Garden/TH

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

--$549

--$651

--$784

--

--715--

1,005--

1,150--

--$0.77

--$0.65

--$0.68

--

--24.7%

--60.5%

--14.8%

--

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:

Heat Fuel: Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Pool-Outdr:

Playground:

Basketball:Tennis:

Volleyball:CarWash:

BusinessCtr:ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 5/6/2015) (2)

Elevator:

4.9% Vacant (16 units vacant) as of 5/6/2015

FeaturesStandard: Disposal; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C;

Patio/Balcony

Select Units: Dishwasher

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: --

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking 1: Free Surface Parking

Comments

Parking 2: --Fee: -- Fee: --

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $4.9%5/6/15 $549 $651 $7841.9%5/27/14 $549 $651 $7846.2%6/7/12 $499 $573 $7044.0%3/23/11 $529 $623 $764

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeature1 1Garden $549 715 Market$.7780--2 2Garden $689 1,000 Market$.6924--2 1.5Townhouse $699 1,088 Market$.6480--2 1Garden $599 935 Market$.6492--3 1.5Garden $749 1,100 Market$.6824--3 2Garden $819 1,200 Market$.6824--

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-008758Georgian Place

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 94: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Group Research Heritage Multifamily Community Profile

3205 Heritage Cir.Augusta,GA 30309

Property Manager: --

Opened in 1967

CommunityType: Market Rate - General

188 UnitsStructure Type: Garden

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

--$470

--$553

------

--750--

835------

--$0.63

--$0.66

------

--------------

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:

Heat Fuel: Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Pool-Outdr:

Playground:

Basketball:Tennis:

Volleyball:CarWash:

BusinessCtr:ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 5/6/2015) (2)

Elevator:

10.1% Vacant (19 units vacant) as of 5/6/2015

FeaturesStandard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups);

Central A/C; Patio/Balcony

Select Units: --

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: --

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking 1: Free Surface Parking

CommentsBreakdown of # of units by floorplan& vacancies not available.

Parking 2: --Fee: -- Fee: --

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $10.1%5/6/15 $470 $553 --

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeature1 1Garden $470 750 Market$.63----2 1Garden $515 810 Market$.64----2 2Garden $590 860 Market$.69----

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-021255Heritage

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 95: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Group Research Hickman Arms Multifamily Community Profile

1011 Hickman RoadAugusta,GA 30901

Property Manager: Blanchard & Calhoun

Opened in 1965Last Major Rehab in 2003

CommunityType: Market Rate - General

58 UnitsStructure Type: Garden/TH

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

------

$699------

------

1,022------

------

$0.68------

------

100.0%------

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:

Heat Fuel: Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Pool-Outdr:

Playground:

Basketball:Tennis:

Volleyball:CarWash:

BusinessCtr:ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 5/6/2015) (2)

Elevator:

0.0% Vacant (0 units vacant) as of 5/6/2015

FeaturesStandard: Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C;

Patio/Balcony; Storage (In Unit); Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum

Select Units: Ceiling Fan

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: --

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking 1: Free Surface Parking

CommentsMed School recently tore down 500 units of housing. Occ is unusually high.

Approx. 40 on wait list.

Parking 2: --Fee: -- Fee: --

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $0.0%5/6/15 -- $699 --5.2%5/29/14 -- $684 --3.4%5/6/13 -- $672 --17.2%5/31/12 -- $659 --

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeature2 1.5Townhouse / Townhouse $725 1,100 Market$.6628--2 1Flat / Garden $675 950 Market$.7130--

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-012173Hickman Arms

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 96: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Group Research High Point Crossing Multifamily Community Profile

524 Richmond Hill Rd WAugusta,GA 30906

Property Manager: --

Opened in 1977Last Major Rehab in 1998

CommunityType: Market Rate - General

168 UnitsStructure Type: Garden

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

--$550

--$630

--$750

--

--850--

950--

1,050--

--$0.65

--$0.66

--$0.71

--

--19.0%

--71.4%

--9.5%

--

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:

Heat Fuel: Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Pool-Outdr:

Playground:

Basketball:Tennis:

Volleyball:CarWash:

BusinessCtr:ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 5/6/2015) (2)

Elevator:

4.2% Vacant (7 units vacant) as of 5/6/2015

FeaturesStandard: Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C;

Patio/Balcony

Select Units: --

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: --

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking 1: Free Surface Parking

Comments3 BD units have in unit laundry.

All vacancies are preleased.

Parking 2: --Fee: -- Fee: --

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $4.2%5/6/15 $550 $630 $7504.8%5/29/14 $545 $620 $7356.0%5/6/13 $535 $610 $7358.9%5/31/12 $525 $595 $735

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeature1 1Garden $550 850 Market$.6532--2 1Garden $630 950 Market$.66120--3 2Garden $750 1,050 Market$.7116--

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-008754High Point Crossing

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 97: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Group Research Lenox of Augusta Multifamily Community Profile

3211 Wrightsboro Rd.Augusta,GA 30909

Property Manager: --

Opened in 1975

CommunityType: Market Rate - General

187 UnitsStructure Type: Garden

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

--$562

--$668

--$769

--

--713--

1,128--

1,300--

--$0.79

--$0.59

--$0.59

--

--33.7%

--56.7%

--9.6%

--

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:

Heat Fuel: Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Pool-Outdr:

Playground:

Basketball:Tennis:

Volleyball:CarWash:

BusinessCtr:ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 5/6/2015) (2)

Elevator:

4.8% Vacant (9 units vacant) as of 5/6/2015

FeaturesStandard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ceiling Fan; Central A/C; Patio/Balcony;

Broadband Internet

Select Units: --

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: --

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking 1: Free Surface Parking

CommentsCable is included in rent.

3 add'l not for lease: 1 office, 1 model, 1 mgr. unit.

Parking 2: --Fee: -- Fee: --

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $4.8%5/6/15 $562 $668 $769

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeature1 1Garden $562 713 Market$.7963--2 2Garden $659 1,100 Market$.6086--2 1.5Garden $709 1,250 Market$.5720--3 2Garden $769 1,300 Market$.5918--

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-021256Lenox of Augusta

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 98: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Group Research Magnolia Park Multifamily Community Profile

2133 Vandivere Rd.Augusta,GA 30904

Property Manager: --

Opened in 1969Last Major Rehab in 1996

CommunityType: LIHTC - General

171 UnitsStructure Type: Garden/TH

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

--$450

--$512

--$650

--

--710--

989--

1,100--

--$0.63

--$0.52

--$0.59

--

--7.6%

--88.9%

--3.5%

--

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:

Heat Fuel: Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Pool-Outdr:

Playground:

Basketball:Tennis:

Volleyball:CarWash:

BusinessCtr:ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 5/6/2015) (2)

Elevator:

5.8% Vacant (10 units vacant) as of 5/6/2015

FeaturesStandard: Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C;

Patio/Balcony

Select Units: --

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: --

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking 1: Free Surface Parking

Comments

Parking 2: --Fee: -- Fee: --

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $5.8%5/6/15 $450 $512 $65015.2%5/27/14 $450 $512 $65016.4%5/31/12 $400 $512 $61515.8%5/16/12 $400 $512 $615

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeature1 1Garden $450 710 LIHTC/ 60%$.6313--2 1.5Townhouse $525 1,000 LIHTC/ 60%$.53103--2 1Garden $485 965 LIHTC/ 60%$.5049--3 2Garden $650 1,100 LIHTC/ 60%$.596--

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-008770Magnolia Park

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 99: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Group Research Maxwell House Multifamily Community Profile

1002 Greene StreetAugusta,GA 30901

Property Manager: --

Opened in 1951Last Major Rehab in 2005

CommunityType: LIHTC - General

216 UnitsStructure Type: 10-Story High Rise

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

$405$397

----------

375517----------

$1.08$0.77

----------

--------------

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:

Heat Fuel: Natural Gas

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Pool-Outdr:

Playground:

Basketball:Tennis:

Volleyball:CarWash:

BusinessCtr:ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 5/6/2015) (2)

Elevator:

19.0% Vacant (41 units vacant) as of 5/6/2015

FeaturesStandard: Central A/C; Carpet / Ceramic

Select Units: --

Optional($): --

Incentives:1st month's rent free.

Security: Keyed Bldg Entry

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking 1: Free Surface Parking

Comments44 PBRA units for people with a physical or mental disability.

15 Market rent units.72- Eff & 144- 1BR's.

Occ. Low b/c elevator was broken & many people moved out b/c could not use stairs.

Parking 2: --Fee: -- Fee: --

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $19.0%5/6/15 $397 -- --17.1%5/29/14 $400 -- --8.3%5/6/13 $429 -- --10.2%6/5/12 $350 -- --

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeatureEff 1High Rise - Elevator $500 375 LIHTC/ 50%$1.33----Eff 1High Rise - Elevator $575 375 Market$1.53----1 1High Rise - Elevator $530 442 LIHTC/ 50%$1.20----1 1High Rise - Elevator $530 457 LIHTC/ 50%$1.16----1 1High Rise - Elevator $543 532 LIHTC/ 60%$1.02----1 1High Rise - Elevator $595 532 Market$1.12----1 1High Rise - Elevator $543 552 LIHTC/ 60%$.98----1 1High Rise - Elevator $543 584 LIHTC/ 60%$.93----

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-012175Maxwell House

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.

Page 100: 15th Street Development Phase I - Georgia€¦ · 15th Street Development Phase I will be located on the site of the former Cherry Tree Public Housing community,which was recently

RealProperty Group Research Woodhaven Multifamily Community Profile

1840 Killingsworth RdAugusta,GA 30904

Property Manager: Drucker & Falk

Opened in 1979Last Major Rehab in 2013

CommunityType: Market Rate - General

152 UnitsStructure Type: Garden

Owner: --

Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)

Bedroom Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg RentEff

One

Two

ThreeFour+

One/Den

Two/Den

--$515

----------

--567----------

--$0.91

----------

--100.0%

----------

Utilities in Rent:

Heat:

Heat Fuel: Electric

Hot Water:Cooking:

Electricity:Wtr/Swr:

Trash:

Community AmenitiesClubhouse:Comm Rm:

Centrl Lndry:

Fitness: Hot Tub:

Sauna:

Pool-Outdr:

Playground:

Basketball:Tennis:

Volleyball:CarWash:

BusinessCtr:ComputerCtr:

Floorplans (Published Rents as of 5/7/2015) (2)

Elevator:

1.3% Vacant (2 units vacant) as of 5/7/2015

FeaturesStandard: Ceiling Fan; Central A/C; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum

Select Units: --

Optional($): --

Incentives:None

Security: --

Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)

Adjustments to Rent

Parking 1: Free Surface Parking

CommentsPicnic/grilling areas.

Send email for mkt survey- [email protected]

Parking 2: --Fee: -- Fee: --

Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $1.3%5/7/15 $515 -- --0.0%5/27/14 $510 -- --15.1%5/6/13 $495 -- --5.3%5/16/12 $495 -- --

Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt ProgramRent/SF#UnitsFeature1 1Garden $515 567 Market$.91152--

© 2015 Real Property Research Group, Inc. GA245-008772Woodhaven

(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.