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Smartare företag- smartare planet

Dennis Pamlin, Founder and CEO, 21st Century Frontiers Stockholm 2011, 27 Oktober 2011

二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्कीसवी सदी की सीमाएं


1

Planets available


9 000 000 000

Number of people 2050


0

Time left before we need action

1. Var är vi?

2. Hjältar och ICT ett nytt århundrande

3. Att ta ledningen inte stå och titta på

4. Idéer

5. Möjliga steg framåt



Adbusters

Var är vi?Vid slutet av många vägar

1. There are planetary boundaries. And many of them have been crossed.

2. The ecosystems have started to collapse and conflicts are increasing.

3. Political and scientific agreement that we need to reduce our impact by a factor five/80% as soon as possible (incremental improvements are not enough).


The Stockholm Resilience CentreGlobal Footprint NetworkIPCCC


http://www.maweb.org/en/index.aspx

Transformative solutionsWhy they are so important


Transformative solutions

Transformative Solution Leadership http://transformative-solutions.net/2.0/files/material/LCL_Transformative_Solutions.pdf


Sweden in a dangerous space of boringness

SWEDEN

http://www.global-ict-leadership.net/


Sweden in a dangerous space of boringness

www.gesi.orghttp://www.global-ict-leadership.net/


Vart våra pengar gårVi gör saker utan IT = Vi förstör planeten

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2010/full_list/

http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1376-LSBNLU6JIJUP01-2OHJH7KLQM3EO61EC64KRGFLME

Heroes and ICT in the 21st century


1771-The industrial revolution

1829-Steam, coal, iron & railways

1875-Steel & heavy engineering

1908-Automobile, oil, mass production

1971-IT & telecommunication

Based on Ericsson material quoting Professor Carlota Perez, Universities of Cambridge, Tallinn and Sussex

Two different phases of each technological revolution

Time

INSTALLATION DEPLOYMENT

Turningpoint

20-30 years

More efficiently solving old problems - winners among old

players

Applying paradigm to innovate across society

– new winners

1. Var är viVid början på många nya vägar

Being a ICT company in the 21st century


ACT 1The Crime

The scientific discussion 1900-1962 =>


Climate changeRainforest

OceansEtc


ACT 2The Villain

The pollution debate 1972-2008 =>


Hunting the villainWhat is called “green” today is often either mainly moving the problemor is not enough (not always bad, but not enough and often actually bad)

From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red).

Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y-1)

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/


ACT 3The Hero

The solution era 2009/10 =>http://www.transformative-step.net/

1. The demandWhat is happening


Booz and Co. 2010

Few understand how much money that must change directionNew ways to provide the solutions we need must be acknowledged and new business successes welcomed.

$350 trillion to be invested in construction and use of urban infrastructures over the next 30 years to provide basic services such as mobility, heat, lighting, etc. 7 times current annual GDP



Long-term GDP trendsGoldman Sachs

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

$USb

n

ChinaUSJapanGermanyUKFranceItalyIndiaEU-4

Goldman Sachs: The Long-Term Outlook for the BRICs

Transformative ICT solutions


http://www.transformative-applications.net/UnderstandInfrastructure/index.html

BIG PROBLEMToo good in too many areas


http://www.pamlin.net/new/?p=463

Reading with dead forests



Reading with e-readers



Taking the lead


Working as a ICT team in Croatia


Being a ICT company in the 21st century: Solution

Solution Company’s/Sectors own emissions (the ICT sector)

The emissions the solution company/sector can help reduce (The ICT sector 15 to >30% by 2030)


Being a ICT company in the 21st century: From 0


Being a ICT company in the 21st century: From 0

1992 2012100

1

0

5 000

10 000 000 000

1 100 000 000 000


illustration: A global map of scientific collaboration between researchers, published 23rd of February 2011 by Olivier H. Beauchesne http://olihb.com/2011/01/23/map-of-scientific-collaboration-between-researchers/


Being a ICT company in the 21st century: to all

The 21st century infrastructure: The internet of thingsAn infrastructure connecting not only people, but things (>50 billions 2020)

Ideas for the 21st Century

Incremental improvementsin existing systems

二十一世纪新前线

21st Century Frontiersइक्कीसवी सदी की सीमाएं

Technology leaps

Transformative solutions

From problems to new solutions

The opportunity hookThreshold levels for transformative change

0-25 25-75 75-90 90-100

Relevance for old ways of providing a service

Relevance for transformative ways of providing a serviceDifficulty to implement solution

% Change needed compared with baseline

Threshold level

Thresholds for transformative change

Relevance/how easy different solutions are to implement


Using a 9 billion filters

The long-tail


Long-tail and Diversity without “Cyberbalkanization”


Human

Investor

Parent

Consumer

Employee

EntrepreneurDesigner

House owner

Voter

Networker

Mobile apps

Human

Investor

Parent

Consumer

Employee

EntrepreneurDesigner

House owner

Voter

Networker

A unique interface


Using a 9 billion filters


Possible steps forward

Strukturer, steg för steg I tröga organisationer


1. Recognising the role of smart and transformative ICT solutions (measure the times it is mentioned)

2. Appointing a person/team responsible for transformative ICT solutions

3. Conducting studies that measure the impact of transformative ICT solutions (benchmark yourself/Sweden)

4. Setting emission reduction, investment and job creation targets for transformative ICT solutions (in individual areas to begin with and then aggregated targets for clusters of solutions);

5. Ensuring that key areas transformative ICT solutions are integrated in all significant policy documents

6. Open up for innovation and focus on transformative solutions

KUL


1. Tänk på vad ni redan gör!Njut av att vara smart, gör snabba kalkyler

2. ParticipateTransformative step of the day, följ kul saker på Twitter/RSS

3. Use the nine billion filterHelp drive innovation and export of smart services

4. LegacySet up a transformative teams:• Digital Alexandria• 21st Century Office• Plus Buildings• 24/7 Health

5. Set a planet positive target Help the planet get what it needs, reduce the footprint in the rest of the world…

Sustainable development谢谢 !

“Det finns saker man måste göra, även om det är farligt. Annars är man ingen människa, utan bara en liten lort.”

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