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Food Security and Climate Change in Asia Pacific

ICA Asia Pacific Agriculture Committeejoint Seminar on 1st September 2010 at Beijing

Presented by K.K. Ravindran, Managing Director, National Cooperative

Agriculture & Rural Development Banks’ Federation Ltd., Mumbai (India)

“Food security exists when all people, at all times

have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe

and nutritious food which meets the dietary needs and food

preferences for active and healthy life”.

(World Food Summit, Rome 1996)

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Four main elements of food security (FAO)

• Food availability:- Through production/imports/aid.

• Food access:- Entitlements of individuals for acquiring appropriate foods for a nutritious diet.

 • Utilization:- Through adequate diet, clean water, sanitation and

health care to reach a state of nutritional well being.

• Stability:- To have access to food at all times.

Proportion of people who are food insecured in different regions and

country groupings in 2005

(Based on minimum dietary energy requirement of 1800 calories/day)

Asia Pacific Total - 16% (541 mn)

 

World Total - 13% (848 mn)

 

East and North East Asia - 10%

(China, DPR Korea, Mongolia)

 

South East Asia - 16%

(Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam)

 

South and South East Asia - 21%

(Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka & Turkey)

 

North and Central Asia - 11%

(Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan)

 

Pacific - 12%

(Cook Island, Fiji, Kiribati, Micronesia)

 

Developing countries - 16% (789 mn)

 

Sub Saharan Africa - 32% (201 mn)

 

Children under weight• Under 5 child mortality in Asia Pacific 3.8 mn per year.• More than half of these deaths are from causes related to

malnutrition.

Proportion of under-weight children in Asia Pacific

North and North East Asia - 7.2%

South East Asia - 25.7%

South and South East Asia - 42%

North and Central Asia - 4.8%

 

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Vulnerable groups

Rural children•Twice as likely to be undernourished as compared with urban children.

Female•Undernourishment is almost same for boys and girls except in South Asia where for boys the rate is 44% while for girls it is 47%.

•Women are more likely to be undernourished than men in some countries including India (maternal buffering).

•Women also get lower wages than men for the same work with serious implications on food security of households depending on female earners.

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Other vulnerable groups

Migrant workers • Mainly landless labourers migrating to cities.

• They are more vulnerable to fluctuations in food prices.

 

Tribal groups• Asia Pacific is home to 70% of world’s indigenous population.

• Most of the tribal groups lost access to their traditional land and forests and other common property resources on which they depended for food and livelihood.

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Coping strategies in the wake of food inflation

•Eat less.

•Eat cheaper food (lower nutritional value).

•Selling assets.

•Taking loans.

•Reducing non food expenditure.

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Major causes

1) Increasing demand - Population growth.

- Increased income leading to demand for more food and better food.

2) Decelerating productivity - Neglect of investment in agriculture when prices are low.

3) Market based food insecurity

- Insufficient purchasing power.

- Inadequate credit facilities for small and marginal farmers.

4) Food policies of developed countries

- Encouraging over production through subsidies and flooding of subsidised

crops in international markets.

- Cheap food imports in the past destroyed domestic agriculture of many

developing countries. 9

5) Threat to food security through trade

- 25 countries in Asia Pacific are net importers of food.

- These countries achieve food self-reliance through adequate export of

non food items to cover food import bill.

- But when food prices increase they become insecure if their exports do

not grow sufficiently.

6) High oil prices- Direct impact on food prices through cost of fertilizers and direct

consumption of fuel.

- Also leads to diversion of land for bio fuel cultivation.

7) Speculation- Growing presence of financial investors in commodity markets.

- Leads to food prices overreact to market information and deviate from

fundamentals.

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Threat to sustainable agriculture

Sustainable agriculture integrates goals of environmental health and economic equity. But meeting current food needs is becoming difficult without compromising the rights of future generations due to following factors:-

(1) Expanding deserts

• Major causes are over intensive farming resulting in depletion of water resources and

• Erosion due to cultivation in steep slopes.

• Vast areas of crop land, grass land and forests already lost and many more are under threat.

(2) Shrinking forest

• Forest provide critical eco system services to agriculture.

• Millions of poor people and small scale enterprises depend on forests for food, fiber, fodder and other materials.

• Large scale shrinking of forest occur due to high demand for timber and coastal development leading to depletion of mangroves.

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(3) Competing for water• To produce each calorie of food requires approximately one litre of

water.• To provide each person with 1800 calorie per day Asia Pacific

needs additional 2.4 bn cubic metres of water per day by 2050.• Rice, the staple food of the region, requires 2-3 times more water

for cultivation than other cereals.• Wastage and over usage due to inefficient irrigation system and

subsidisation by govt.

- Withdrawal more than renewable capacity.

- Water stress and water conflicts have become new threats to

social stability.

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(4) Diversion of land for bio fuels• High fuel prices leads to large scale conversion of land for

cultivation of bio fuels.• Bio fuel and industrial cultivation reduces land available for food

production.

(5) Climate change• Food security is threatened by climate change which has many

complex effects.

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Food price crisis of 2008

• Food prices started spiraling since 2000 when world stock of wheat, maize and rice dropped to 30 year low after production lagged behind consumption, for many years consecutively.

• Food prices increased by 9% in 2006, 23% in 2007 and 51% in 2008.

• The prices started easing since 2009 mainly due to global recession.

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Agenda for food security

Short term measures

1. Measures to improve access by poorer sections and vulnerable communities.

2. State protection for vulnerable groups such as small and marginal farmers, women and children in poor households, people living with HIV and aids, older people and people with disabilities.

3. Social protection against shocks such as natural calamities– Introduction of new forms of insurance, more traditional forms

of transfers such as food for work.– To eliminate gender based food insecurities through social,

economic and legislative measures.

4) Physical access, transport and logistics

- To strengthen food infrastructure for transport, storage,

marketing and distribution.

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5) Improving choice and utilisation of food• Measures to enable people to make informed choices about the

food that is available to them and have access to health promoting food, nutrition and education.

Medium term measures• Commitment to ecologically balanced, socially just equitable

agriculture to ensure food security to all.• State support for participation of small farmers in a new Green

Food Revolution based on ecologically viable systems.• Focus on rain-fed agriculture.• Better water management.• Village knowledge and technology centres.

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Long term measures• Adaptation to climate change.• Trans boundary and other support measures –

– Harnessing trade by removing trade distorting barriers.– Regional cooperation on harnessing sanitary and phyto

sanitation certification.– Simplifying and increasing the transparency of administrative

procedures and documents. – Increasing trade in perishable food products.

• Strengthening regional cooperation –

- Mapping food insecurity hot spots.– Establish Asia Pacific Food Security Coalition for early warning

and response system for rapid sharing of information, technology and mitigation expertise.

– Building knowledge hub – Regional data base on food security.

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Cooperatives and food security

• Cooperatives being community based local institutions can effectively address community/local issues in food production and food access.

• Cooperative model best suited for employment and income generation for people with limited means.

• Can facilitate pooling of resources for more efficient use.

(Ex: Cooperative farming by small/marginal farmers, common ownership of machinery and implements)

• Can foster sustainable agriculture.

• Provide credit and support services to farmers.

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Case of multi purpose Primary Agricultural

Credit Societies in India

• More than 100,000 in number.• Total membership more than 200 mn.• Countrywide coverage of 700,000 villages.• Services include –

- Production credit – crop loans.

- Supply of inputs – seeds, fertilizer, pesticides.

- Supply of equipments and machinery.

- Procurement.

- Storage.

- Marketing.

- Supply of consumer goods.

- Undertake PDS.

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Climate Change

• Climate change refers to rising global temperatures due to excessive emissions of green house gases, mainly through burning of fossil fuels.

• Climate change has become a threat to humanity on account of rising sea levels and steep decline in crop production.

• Projected effects of 3oC rise in global temperature

- Drop in crop production upto 400 million tons, depriving food for another 400 million people.

- Collapse of Greenland & Antarctica iceshelves flooding 3 billion people without access to fresh water supplies.

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Containing global warming

Fortunately global warming can be contained if carbon emissions can be reduced by 2% per year i.e., 80% by 2050, through

- Carbon foot print quantification, analysis and reduction.

- Drastic reduction in the use of fossil fuels.

- Switching to clean energy for homes, businesses and factories.

- Increased energy efficiency in transport.

- Energy efficiency choices like CFL bulbs, hybrid cars.

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Complexity of mitigation efforts• In spite of awareness and availability of knowhow, mitigation efforts involve

complex issues.

• A global agreement to contain climate change needs to address the concerns of various countries individually and in groups.

• A few developed countries and emerging economies account for most part of industrial pollution.

• Developed countries acquired their wealth at a heavy cost for environmental stability and safety at global level.

• Developing countries can fulfill high targets for reductions in carbon emissions only at the cost of further economic advancement.

• Least developed countries and island nations are victims of pollution by others without reaping any of the economic benefits accrued from such pollution.

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Progress of mitigation efforts so far

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit in 1992) established that developed countries should take the lead in containing climate change.

• Kyoto Protocol (1997) negotiated legally binding targets for reductions in emissions as supplement to UNFCCC.

• Bali Action Plan (2007) charted the course for negotiating process for signing a comprehensive agreement by 2009.

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UNCCC at Copenhagen

• Negotiation process on launch of adoption fund, review of Kyoto Protocol, technology transfer and reducing emissions from deforestation were to be completed with Copenhagen Summit in 2009.

• The Summit, however, failed to sign an agreement with legally binding commitments for reductions in carbon emissions.

• The Accord reached in Copenhagen required developed countries to list their reduction targets and developing countries to list the actions they take to cut global warming pollution by specific amounts.

• The Accord promises 30 bn dollars in emergency aid in the next three years and a goal of making available 100 bn dollars a year by 2020 to developing countries with no guarantees.

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Agriculture and climate change

• Global temperature is expected to increase by 2-3 degree celcius by the end of this century, giving rise to

- heat/cold wave

- more variable rainfall

- increased extreme weather events

- changes in the intensity and frequency of monsoon systems.

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Temperature change and impact on agriculture

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Temperature change Impact

+1 to +2 degree celcius Some increase in yield.

Cold limitation alleviated.

Yield reduction in some altitudes.

Increase in heat stress for livestock.

+2 to +3 degree celcius Potential increase in yield due to CO2

fertilisation but likely offset by other

factors.

Moderate production loss to livestock.

Increased heat stress.

Yield of all crops fall.

+3 to +5 degree celcius Maize and wheat yields fall regardless

of adaptation.

High production losses of livestock.

Increased heat stress and mortality of

livestock.

Temperature change Impact

+1 to +2 degree celcius Some increase in yield.

Cold limitation alleviated.

Yield reduction in some altitudes.

Increase in heat stress for livestock.

+2 to +3 degree celcius Potential increase in yield due to CO2

fertilisation but likely offset by other

factors.

Moderate production loss to livestock.

Increased heat stress.

Yield of all crops fall.

+3 to +5 degree celcius Maize and wheat yields fall regardless

of adaptation.

High production losses of livestock.

Increased heat stress and mortality of

livestock.

Mitigation

• Significant mitigation possible through

- improved crop land and grazing land management.

• Restoration of degraded lands.

• Land use change. (Ex: To agro forestry)

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Adaptation • Adaptation required due to long time gaps involved in GHG mitigation efforts

to have an impact.

• Altering farm management practices.

• Adoption of new varieties of crops and breeds more appropriate to future climate conditions.

• Better water management.

• Adjust food consumption patterns.

• Maintain dietary quality and diversity.

• Promote eco friendly energy use.

• Adopt eco system based risk management.

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Climate Change and Cooperatives• ICA General Assembly in Geneva on 20 November 2009 emphasised that the

unique set of cooperative values especially those of equity and social responsibility incite cooperative action on climate change.

• Cooperative enterprises in various sectors can significantly reduce GHG emissions by each sector from the present level as below:-

Agriculture directly - 14%

Due to land use change and deforestation - 17%

Waste and waste water - 3%

Industry - 19%

Energy supply - 26%

Transport - 13%

Residential and commercial buildings - 8%

• Cooperative movement to lobby with national governments to influence government policies towards climate change and commitment to mitigation actions.

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THANK YOU

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