z [africa – consumption, trade and · pdf filez [africa – consumption, trade and...

‘’Africa – Consumption, Trade and Investment opportunities’’

Presented by: Hassan Hashim Erwa Corporate Director Sales & Marketing

Kenana Sugar Company Limited – Sudan

September 8, 2017

2

Kingsman Asia Sugar Conference, September 7-8, 2017, Andaz – Delhi - India

Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade

Africa sugar industry challenges

Investment opportunities

Conclusion

Outlines

Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

3


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Sector Contribution to GDP Africa Emerging Countries

4


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Africa Basic Info

UN Economic Commission for Africa Africa business Magazine

5


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

World Sugar Production, consumption by Region

8% 14%

6%

12%

25%

32%

3%

World sugar production by region Oct/Sep 2015-16, raw

value

EU

Europe

Africa

N. & C. America

South America

Asia

Oceania

9%

16%

11%

10% 10%

43%

1%

World sugar consumption by region Oct/Sep 2015-16, raw

value

EU

Europe

Africa

N. & C. America

South America

Asia

Oceania

• Africa total production in 2015-16 is 10,897 mln out of the world’s production of 174,636 mln raw value • Africa total consumption in 2015-16 is 21,044 mln of the world’s consumption of 179,757 mln raw value Source of data: F.O. Lichts -June 2017

6


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

World V.S Africa sugar trade (imports, exports)

83%

17%

Imports

World

Africa

95%

5%

Exports

World

Africa

• Africa total imports in 2015-16 are 13,966 mln mt out of the world’s imports of 71,955.2 mln mt • Africa total exports in 2015-16 are 4,054 mln mt out of the world’s exports of 69,035 mln mt

Source of data: F.O. Lichts -June 2017

7


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Consumption trends

15.2 14.9

15.6

16.4

15.8 16.0 16.1

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Averages Of Africa Per Capita Sugar Consumption 2016

Highest Per Capita

Country (Kilograms)

Swaziland 48.5

Tunisia 39.6

Egypt, Arab Rep. 37.7

Gambia 37.4

Mauritania 37.2

Sudan 36.2

Algeria 35.3

South Africa 34.7

Morocco 34.6

Namibia 34.4

Lowest Per Capita

Country (Kilograms)

Congo, Dem. Rep. 3.5

Central Afr. Rep. 3.6

Burundi 4.2

Burkina Faso 5.1

Ethiopia 5.2

Liberia 5.2

Niger 5.5

Sierra Leone 5.5

Rwanda 5.6

Madagascar 6.7

ISO year book 2017

8


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Africa self-sufficiency ratio

0.59

0.58

0.56

0.57 0.58

0.56

0.52

0.54

0.58

0.48

0.50

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.60

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Africa Self - sufficiency ratio


9


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Africa is a sugar deficit region

10,125 10,233 10,295 10,964 11,294 11,336 10,897 11,685 12,714 12,418 12,689 12,961 13,232 13,504 13,775 14,046 14,318 14,589 14,861 15,132 15,404

17,140 17,562 18,427 19,119 19,594 20,357 21,044 21,473

21,963 22,756 23,381 24,006 24,631 25,256 25,880 26,505 27,130 27,755 28,380 29,005 29630.2

7,015 7,329 8,132

8,155 8,300 9,021

10,147 9,788 9,249 10,338

10,692 11,045

11,399 11,752

12,105 12,459

12,812 13,166

13,519 13,873

14,226

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

AFRICA SUGAR BALANCE

Production Consumption Deficit

10


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Africa sugar trade

‘’African countries receive preferences from developed countries

under various (PTAs) preferential trading agreements. While maintain bilateral agreements with some countries ’’

• AGOA

• EBA/EU

• EU/GSP

• GSP

Preferential Trading Agreements

Bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements

• ECOWAS

• EAC

• SADC

Economic partnership agreements (EPA )

Tripartite Free Trade Area

11


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Kenana sugar co.

12


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

African sugar Balance

10,125 10,233 10,295 10,964 11,294 11,336 10,897 11,685 12,714

17,140 17,562 18,427 19,119 19,594 20,357 21,044 21,473 21,963 4,000 4,165 3,853 4,841

-

4,795 4,054 4,121 4,397

11,080 11,591 12,734

13,482

13,009

14,081 13,966 14,308 14,119

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Africa Sugar balance Oct/Sep -2009/10 up to 2017/18* (1,000 tonnes, raw value )

Production Consumption Exports Imports


13


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Africa sugar trade (imports, exports)

14


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Africa negative trade will increase significantly up to 2025

African Development Bank:

15


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Cane Growing

Technology

Infrastructure

Policy & Institutional

Africa sugar industry challenges:

16


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion


Fulfilling the potential of African agribusinesses could open up markets worth more than $100 bn per year by 2025

African Development Bank

17


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Transformative investment climate

Finance Accessibility: China Brazil India Regional institutions:

- African Development Bank - Arab Funds - Islamic Development Bank-Jeddah - Arab bank for economic development in Africa ( BADEA)

Adoption of innovative finance:

- Combination of private sector loan window plus public sector loan

- Supply credit facilities by emerging markets funds

18


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Transformative investment climate

Market changes : Emerging of new African trade Area (TRIPATRITE) CFTA (2017) deficit of 8.1 mln MT GAFTA( Pan Arab Tree Trade Area) 11 mln MT EPA & GSP regimes

Resources : African agriculture sector represents only a quarter of the continent GDP ( 5%

growth) Water 600 million (ha) of Guinea Savannah - only 10% cultivated Exceptional from Bio diversity conventions

19


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

New global environment post 2008

I. Complex financial instruments have lost their luster

II. Food security is a real and found to be attractive investments

III. Evolution of new agricultural strategies:

Sustainable Business Models

Transformation from agriculture to Eco – systems models

IV. Re – innovation in the sugar industry and emergence of ‘’ cane industry concept’’

Enhanced added value chain of industry

Creating more profit through product diversification

20


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Sugar Model

Source: Kenana sugar Co.

21


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Sugarcane value chain Cane Crop

1 MT

Residuals

150 Kg

Baggasses

330 Kg

Molasses

35 Kg

Sugar

100 Kg

Green Fodder

150 Kg

Electricity

98 W/H

Ethanol

9 Liters

Animal Feed

2 Kg

Meat

12 Kg

Dairy Products

7.5 Kg Source: KETS

22


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Estimated Revenue /Feddan

Product Quantity EST. Revenue (USD)

Sugar production 4.0 MT 2000

Electricity 3 MGW/hr 161

Green Fodder 7 mt 350

Molasses 2 Mt 160

Ethanol 520/ litters 286

* Average sugar price $500/MT

Source: Kenana sugar Co., White Nile sugar Co.

23


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Africa is ready for sweet investments

1. Lower production costs

2. Fast growing domestic sugar markets

3. Special access to preferential markets (EU,EPA,GSP,…)

4. Adoption of trade liberalization and investments market:

Increasing flow of FDI

Bilateral investment treaties

New style of integrated industrial polices

24


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Africa multiple sugar expansion plans

Sudan

• Sudan Arab food security initiative

Nigeria:

• Nigeria’s sugar master plan 1.6 mln MT

• Dangote group 1.5 mln MT

Ethiopia

• GTP 2,4 mln MT

Kenya

• KSP Plan

• Sugar sector privatization scheme

Tanzania

• SBT plan – to increase to 0.9 mln MT

25


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Sudan/Arab food security plan

Source: KETS,

26


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Other African sugar plans

Country Region Project MT

Burundi expansion plan of Susomo 40,000

Intergrated sugar project 350,000

Lamu sugar Project -

Rwanda - Sugar factory mill 100,000

Uganda - - -

Arjo-Dedesa, Kuraz, Tendaho

Walkaiyt, Belles,

Kassem ( new project under constraction)

Kawambwa sugar ltd project 120,000

Mazabuka (refinery project) 90,000

Rufijivalley, Ngerengere

Kigoma, Kilosa, Bagamoyo

Angola - Companhia de Bioenergia de Angola (BIOCOM) 260,000

Chkwe Intergrated project 420,000

Xinavane sugar Refinery 90,000

Benin ECOWAS Zenros Investments (PTY) ltd 100,000

Guinea ECOWAS Guinea Intergrated Sugar Project 300,000

Uinty Intergrated Sugar 60,000

Melat Project 110,000

Manglla & Aljur 100,000

Ghana ECOWAS Komenda sugar factory -

Mauritania MENA - -

Nigeria ECOWAS Dangote group, N. Master plan 1.5, 1.6 mln

Niger ECOWAS - -

Mali ECOWAS - -

Swaziland SADC Expansion plan bY 2022 100,000

3,273,400

Zambia COMESA / SADC

South Sudan -

900,000

Mozambique -

Kenya EAC/ COMESA

Ethiopia COMESA

Tanzania COMESA

Source: KETS,

Mahaseal

Agriculture Co.

27


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

Conclusion

Africa .. Economy in transformation:

• Innovative Financing of Agriculture through PPP.

• Increasing flow of FDI in food industry and distribution

• New regulations on :

Bio – fuel projects

Investments in co - generation projects

Adoption of integrated model by new projects .

• Africa represents a potential sugar cane production and investment world hub

• Malabo – Equatorial Guinea 2014 declaration by African Heads of States and Government has committed Comprehensive African Agricultural Development program (CAADP)

• Sugarcane is a unique crop with great potential in Africa

28


Overview

Consumption trends

Africa sugar trade



Conclusion

“ It always seems impossible until it is done”

Nelson Mandela

Thank you

z [africa – consumption, trade and · pdf filez [africa – consumption, trade and...

Documents