wtf pandemic - transportation working 22333344444 · 2020. 5. 31. · before less than before...

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WHAT THE FUTURE: PANDEMIC

TRANSPORTATION

From hopeful to woeful, experts weigh in on potential futures. PAGE 04

How will our use of cars change? PAGE 11

Are we ready to get back on the road?PAGE 02

TRANSPORTATION

WHAT THE FUTURE

PANDEMIC

Will car culture be changed forever?

Most Americans drive alone to work.

And yet, we continue to be defined less by our vehicles.

We are driving less today.

And expect to drive fewer miles in the future…

of full-time employed Americans expect their commute to change due to COVID-19.

Do you consider yourself a car person or someone who is passionate about cars, trucks, motorcycles, or other vehicles you drive yourself?

How much, if at all, do you feel that the car you drive reflects your personality or self?

Overall, as restrictions are lifted, do you anticipate driving...

of those full-time employed respondents expect to drive to work more often. Another 33% expect to commute less overall due to working from home.

of people say they are driving their personal vehicles less now.

30%

51%

70%

49% 59%

19%

22% 24%

25%

23% 19%

2020

2020

2020 2020

2017

2017 2017

2017

Reflects a great deal

Reflects a little Does not reflect at all

(Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; The Ipsos Coronavirus Consumer Tracker, fielded April 27 – 28, 2020 among 1,112 U.S. adults; Ipsos survey conducted between December 19 and 21, 2017 among 2,000 adults in the U.S.; Ipsos survey conducted May 19 – 20, 2020 among 1,114 U.S. adults.)

The Big Question is, how will our driving behaviors change?

35%

33%

2020

2017

Reflects somewhat

14% 57% 4% 25%

More than before

Less than before

Don’t know

About the same as before

WHAT THE FUTURE | PANDEMIC02

When the WTF talked about transportation last in 2018, the discussion was largely around autonomous and electric vehicles. Now it’s about working from home and urban planning. The pandemic has upended (for good and bad) one of the most American things about the past 75 years: driving.

Here we present three vignettes, postcards from the future, if you will. They are not meant as predictions or formal forecasts. Rather, they’re a narrative starting point for a discussion about the future of transportation and automotive. We aren’t even going to handicap which one is more likely, but urban theorist Joel Kotkin offers some oddly hopeful advice: don’t underestimate inertia. We shared these vignettes with experts in the automotive industry, urban planning, the dealer experience and consumer behavior. They then gave us their thoughts on how the future might unfold under each of those situations. The three represent a range from hopeful to woeful. The first postcard is sent from a future we might try to aim for, with smart investment in infrastructure and 5G technology to get the economy rolling again. The second comes from a future where missteps were made along the way and those play out with drawn-out consequences. The final presents us with a path that is dire, sadly plausible but wholly avoidable. The bottom line is, we can’t wait and see what the future will bring. We need to be thinking about, and taking a systematic, data-driven approach to planning for all plausible likelihoods so that we can keep our economy on track, and our people on the road to recovery.

Matt Carmichael is the editor of What the Future and VP, Editorial Strategy for Ipsos in North America

PANDEMIC | WHAT THE FUTURE 03POWERED BY

We created three vignettes of potential futures for our experts to react to through a transportation lens. This is our most hopeful vignette: America comes together, makes the best decisions and makes a conscious effort to invest in our future in a meaningful way — while working to keep our people and our economy alive and well.

The recovery isn’t quick — but it’s quicker. All things considered, things might just turn out OK in this timeline and maybe we even emerge a stronger, safer, healthier nation on the other side. As you plan, this is the option to aim for. But it’s going to take some coordinated work to get us there.

TESTING: Testing for COVID-19 and for antibodies turns a corner and gains speed leading to widespread testing available for anyone who wants it and many who are ordered to get tested before they are allowed to return to work. But by fall, a vaccine has been discovered and a massive national effort gets underway to produce enough to meet demand. People begin to feel comfortable venturing out in at least small groups.

REGIONALISM: Fueled by conservative money from familiar sources, protesters in some states, the federal government and some Republican governors, anxious to get the economy opened, begin slowly removing restrictions. This is exacerbated by the media, which presents this as a partisan confl ict with winners and losers, all with predictable results. Hot spots initially fl are up in areas where beaches, religious services, schools and sporting events are allowed to resume. But as the testing gathers steam, people know to self-quarantine and follow distancing norms if they have been exposed. And as the virus ebbs over the summer, people can return to some sense of restricted normal and the virus doesn’t hit as hard in fall because known carriers are identifi ed, and the spread is vastly slowed.

EMPLOYMENT: As the economy starts to open, doctors, health care workers, gig economy and many bar and restaurant workers, who were laid off to both reduce costs as well as allow them to fi le for unemployment benefi ts, are rehired as quickly as they can be and the unemployment rate starts dropping. It’s a long road but it’s helped by a bipartisan “new deal” focused on infrastructure

(both physical and technology) and an acceleration of a trend toward reshoring of manufacturing with an eye toward national security preparedness initiatives, making sure that key equipment, supplies and technology components can and will be built in America.

STIMULUS: This “new deal” of sorts pays off both in the short term by helping businesses get back on their feet and in the long term by preparing the U.S. and retooling to a degree for the future of 5G, autonomous travel and more. Investing more broadly than a pure physical infrastructure investment creates good jobs for a wider range of skilled workers. Restrictions put in place by Congress on the bail-out funds ensure that money is invested in keeping the workforce employed and businesses open, rather than stock buybacks and executive bonuses. Confi dence returns and people are buoyed by a sense of resilience unseen since the post-War period.

ELECTIONS: State and local governments work together with the FEC to ensure a safe election with a heavy focus on absentee balloting and voting by mail. It’s contentious. It’s close. The nation is frustrated because it takes time for the mail-in ballots to be counted and the results are not immediate. But in the end, the elections happen on schedule and the results are accepted by both sides.

Vignette One: Fast intervention, and smart investing

Testing for COVID-19 and for (both physical and technology) and an

WHAT THE FUTURE | PANDEMIC04 POWERED BY

Vignette one paints our most hopeful future. We asked experts from a variety of backgrounds how the future of transportation will play out in this best-case timeline?

Transit was in decline virtually everywhere in the country before the pandemic. It was even beginning to decline in New York. Traditional transit is not likely to come back in signifi cant amounts. Just the words “social distancing” make it impossible. The biggest change in transportation will be people working at home, full time, part time, or working in in less expensive, more so-cially-distanced offi ces where people can, say, drive 10 minutes. Longer term, the thing that would probably work best would be solar-powered, self-cleaning, autonomous vehicles. People will have to drive less.

There’s this idiotic idea that we have here in California where we’re saying, “We have to stop people driving no matter what they’re driving.” OK, so we’re going to force all development into the already most expensive, most congested areas? And by the way, when you put yuppies and or hipsters or whatever you want to call them in areas which used to be inhabited by poorer people, guess what happens? Transit ridership drops because these people don’t take transit, whereas the people they replace did until they were forced to get cars when they moved. Then those people end up buying cars. We have to think about this in terms of geography and how we lay cities out and where we put jobs.

Joel KotkinAuthor, urban theorist

The coronavirus, corresponding pandemic status, and following social isolation period have drastically changed our lives, our practices, and also our consumer culture. The friction between utopia-dystopia narratives shapes up our lifestyles, moods, and mindsets, as well as our vision of the future. Pre-COVID-19, the fl uidity of home and work — with overlapping, shifting, and dynamic boundaries and meanings — has already been changing the meanings

around and about cars. Cars have started to embody and extend the meanings of home: privacy, cleanliness, and security. With COVID-19, the social-distancing routines have perpetuated these meanings about and around cars as a safe and private place. In the future, this dynamic will persist, transforming the car into an entertainment and lifestyle space. Several brands are already trying to capitalize on the free time and freed-up hands that drivers would have in autonomous cars. Soon, the automobile will become an economic agent that earns, saves, and spends money and takes part in the automation workforce. Yet, the future of the car hinges on the evolution and maturation of several other technologies. Its performance will be dependent on the performance of the other technologies in this interdependent technological ecosystem (5G, Internet of Things, signaling, smart city, mobile technologies, etc.). Cars will get more autonomous and smarter because of their connections with other smarter technologies like smart cities, and smart signaling systems. But cars will also be getting more autonomous as their parts become smarter and connected (tires, mirrors, front window, etc.). Tires will be a very important part of the future of the car as they are the boundaries between the car and the other systems (roads, signals, etc.). The future will bring us 3D movement in transportation, and also multiskilled tires.

Behice IlhanSenior trend strategist, Mintel

Universal virus tests make all types of transport safe and people fl ock back onto subways, planes, trains and buses. The broad exposure to bikes and moves by cities to become more bike-friendly stoke micro-mobility, keeping more cars off the road. It’s a win-win all around. Controlling the virus removes stigma from regional travel and makes it safe for New Yorkers to fl ee to Florida for sun. The U.S. transportation infrastructure gets the massive overhaul it so richly deserves. Companies use stimulus bucks to create and propagate tech-enablement of transportation—for improved safety

Postcards from the hopeful future

and paving the way for autonomous to operate with faster data connectivity. The stimulus also rewards battery production as an essential national industrial priority and the cost of electric vehicles plunges, driving further adoption. Transportation employment quickly rebounds to previous levels and beyond. Autonomous vehicles are enabled on a wide scale but it turns out they create more jobs than they kill through new services and new capabilities unlocked by the shift. Amazon deploys drones which kill delivery jobs but create far more secondary and tertiary jobs as drone fl eets multiply and create entirely new business use cases and economies of transportation scale. After the elections, the winning president recognizes that borrowing at effectively negative interest rates to improve transit infrastructure is a no-brainer due to the long term economic benefi ts accrued by high function transportation in a country.

Alex Salkever Author, futurist, technology leader

In this scenario, we are bullish on a V-shaped recovery for automotive sales which could limit the major loss to sales volume through Q2. Here, automotive manufacturers and the government come together to provide attractive incentives to maintain demand, including 0% fi nancing, protection against job loss, deferred payments, plus free services such as connected car features and Wi-Fi. Consumer confi dence returns rapidly when they see and experience unemployment rate declines and the economy opening up again. Manufacturers open up factories and ramp up production and work with the supply chain to restore the supply needed to meet and beat the demand for the American consumer. We see demand and interest for the most popular segments to be restored, and even stronger demand for battery-electric vehicles and vehicles with advanced driver-assist safety features and autonomous / self-driving features.

Jacob George Ipsos US Automotive Quality Practice Leader

How big is the demand for new cars?

(Sources: Ipsos survey conducted May 19 – 20, 2020 among 1,114 U.S. adults; The Ipsos Coronavirus Consumer Tracker, �elded May 4 – 5, 2020 among 1,114 U.S. adults.)

Do you own or lease a vehicle for personal use? (Percent agree)

Total

79

18-34

69

6

7

5

11

10

13

35-54

81 6 4 9

55+

85 5 2 8

35-54

65

55+

87

What best describes your current automobile situation? (Percent agree)

Total

69

18-34

50

16

8

15

24

12

4

11

17

7

1

5

9

Yes, I own a personal vehicle.

Yes, I lease a personal vehicle.

No, I do not currently own a personal vehicle, but I am considering buying or leasing within the next year.

No, I do not currently own a personal vehicle, and I am not considering buying or leasing one.

I am not in the market for an automobile.

I have delayed shopping, and will wait for some time before I resume.

I have delayed shopping, but will resume as soon as there is improvement in the crisis.

I am still looking to make a purchase now.


As cities come back to life anew, dedicated spaces are being created throughout our cities for pedestrians, bikes, scooters, outdoor dining, etc. This is being created through cooperation of our cities and local businesses to enable safe social distancing to enjoy the unique landscape of our cities, including local restaurants and shops. The COVID-19 pandemic has created new opportunities to push the status quo and re-think how transportation is done. This includes getting to and from the city. We are seeing new investment in intracity lanes to autonomous-only vehicles to enable safe, effi cient and productive traveling for commuters. These dedicated lanes can be used at night by autonomous delivery vehicles to effi ciently transport goods without causing increased congestion on our U.S. freeways. The future “winners” will be those that embrace this change and prepare services for this new mobility future.

John Kiser Senior vice president, Ipsos Auto & Mobility

As the economy opens and those consumers who were furloughed or laid off get back to work, we will see unemployment drop. The second round of stimulus money will provide the needed resources to enable consumers to get back to normal and fi ll the gap of the lost income of the last few months. Consumer confi dence will be restored and spending will shift beyond the necessities and include large purchases such as homes, automotive and large durables. Consumers will also get out and enjoy entertainment again, including movies, concerts, sporting events and will be planning for vacation season. But in our data, we already see a shift in how they do that. We see people moving toward road trips to rural and scenic destinations. Creating safe rest areas—perhaps in a public/private partnership with auto companies—will enable the confi dence people need to get out on the road again. Drive-in and drive-through options will increase even for events like concerts and movies.

Mike VanNieuwkuyk Senior vice president, Ipsos Automotive Advisory


We created three vignettes of potential futures for our experts to react to through a transportation lens. This is the Goldilocks vignette — not too horrible, not too great.

We get some of the science right, and some of the stimulus investment right. We also get some of it wrong. The results are mixed. The recovery is slower than it could be, but in the end, we recover. We’re not forecasting that this timeline is in some way the “middle, and therefore likely” one. For our editorial purposes here, it’s just as plausible as the rest.

TESTING: Testing continues to be sporadic. The “states are in charge” approach yields a patchwork of coverage as states compete with each other for supplies. This, coupled with the uneven opening of businesses, means that shelter orders are extended or reinstated in many areas and the virus continues to fl are up in hotspots around the country. People are eager to get back on track and frustrated and anxious as many states cancel summer programs for kids and hint that schools might not reopen in fall.

REGIONALISM: The economy in many sectors stays closed for longer than many want, but untold lives are saved. This is largely due to a failure to generate enough trustworthy testing kits to allow for people to trust that “it’s safe to come out.” Much like China’s early attempts to open its economy, just because businesses were open in some places didn’t mean that people would come. But none of this is universal as some customers are happy to return. The federal government, continuing trends from the beginning of the crisis, rewards states that are loyal with tests and stimulus money and punishes those that try to stay closed to fl atten their own curves by withholding federal aid. This leads to tension among the states, including expansion of border checks for travelers. Interstate business travel fails to rebound as state cases slow at unequal rates. People restock in preparation for a return of lockdowns in the fall and settle in for what looks to be a long recession.

EMPLOYMENT: Many bars and restaurants and other small businesses have been closed too long and can’t reopen. Government stimulus fails to revive them directly but the bailouts to fi nancial services are used to jumpstart

new businesses. This, however, is a long-term return to pre-crisis levels and a recession with high unemployment drags on. With the continuation of social distancing in many regions and the re-closing of some that opened too early without proper testing, more and more goods and services wind up being moved to online or BOPIS. There is a large shift in service workers from their previous jobs (in hospitality especially) to gig-economy delivery jobs with low wages and few benefi ts. But high unemployment means they have little power to bargain or organize for better rights.

STIMULUS: After two large rounds of stimulus, Senate leader Mitch McConnell begins talking about the debt as a “serious issue” and talks bog down on any further stimulus. Money continues to be doled out with little oversight. In the end, $3 trillion+ leads to some short-term patches for the economy but the federal government is tapped out before much aid fl ows to cash-strapped state and local governments. This contributes to the prolonged recession. Uncertainty is the new norm for Americans who continue to see brief hopes dashed by political and social realities.

ELECTIONS: The elections are bumpy. The Republican Party, which has long raised the specter of voter fraud, continues to ramp up this rhetoric leading up to the election, causing fears that the results will be contested. Indeed, there are numerous accounts not necessarily of fraud, but of intimidation and irregularities due to the unprecedented volumes of mail-in ballots. Once the ballots are counted, the results are clear enough that both sides accept the outcome.

Testing continues to be sporadic. The “states are in charge” approach yields a patchwork of coverage

new businesses. This, however, is a long-term return to pre-crisis levels and a recession with high unemployment

Vignette Two: Uneven testing and reopening; fall lockdown; a slow road to recovery.


In vignette two, we get some right, we get some wrong. Our experts weigh in on how transportation rolls on in this future.

I think you’re going to have jobs in the downtowns. I think there’ll just be fewer of them and they’ll have to be skewed more towards very young and higher income. Some parts of urban culture will remain. There will be some form of hybridization in the suburbs where we will have a kind of downtown walking environment. It won’t be public-transit-oriented. It will still be car-, walking- or bike-based. People will take a car, park and then walk around. There will be people in positions of power who are going to want to have things centralized in San Francisco and New York but the workforce might have different ideas. Even if there are not as many people doing that, they will still be able to do that. We’ll muddle our way is probably the most likely thing that will happen, because if I was to criticize anything in my own work, it is that I underestimate inertia.

Joel Kotkin Author, urban theorist

As consumers’ fear towards public transit increases, a personal vehicle becomes a safe alternative—a protective bubble from the world around. What that vehicle looks like may be drastically different than six months ago. With economical concerns, the base model, affordable option is likely to make a comeback. But with more luxury models, the interior of the vehicle will likely become more and more a ‘safe space.’ Air purifying upgrades, cleansing systems, continued focus on touchless displays, and calming sanctuary upgrades to ease an anxious world will also be more in demand. I’m hopeful to see more of these upgrades, as the base model is not nearly as fun!

Laura Dranschak Vice president, Ipsos Creative Excellence and Brands

With the uncertainty of the economy and job market, there will be conservative spending on large investments and new business models until there is more stability. As a result, change to the new transportation approaches will be slow to take root and will delay the progression. Focus will be on the short term for cities, public transportation and auto manufacturers, such as ensuring each of their areas are safe to use and reduce the risk of spreading COVID-19. The primary vehicle has an unique advantage as the environment is controlled by the owner. This could also mean a low-tech closing of streets on a more volunteer basis and not really be organized and/or planned. This can lead to trial behavior change and usage on the weekend of popular inner-city streets. But, at a minimum, this will be a start of what the transformation can look like. I see the “winners” in this using this to take advantage of the trial opportunities of new services and approaches which can

enable new behaviors to take root. This includes autonomous delivery and a need of more advanced driver-assist features, including pedestrian identifi cation and avoidance. This will help the adoption of full autonomous solutions by having these usage experiences. Plus, we will see a strong desire for alternative powertrains, such as full-battery electric vehicles that combines nicely with the most advanced vehicles and can take advantage of the existing federal and state government incentives to purchase the vehicles. We also see a continued uncomfortableness of a portion of the population willing to go out and purchase or have their vehicle serviced. There will be increased demand and willingness to do all of the vehicle transactions online. This opens up a new service model with door-to-door test drives, vehicle delivery and even vehicle pick-up for service.

John KiserSenior vice president, Ipsos Auto & Mobility

Doing more often Have tried new brands, products or services

36%15%

24%

6%

5%4%

14%10%

12%

14%10%

14%

4%5%

5%

8%8%

12%

(Source: The Ipsos Coronavirus Consumer Tracker, �elded May 4 – 5, 2020 among 1,114 U.S. adults.)

Friends and family help us shape our beauty routines

Plan to continue using new brands, products or services

Home delivery or pick up from restaurants

Delivery

Home delivery of meal preparation kit(s)

Home delivery of alcoholic beverages

Home delivery of groceries

What new driving behaviors will stick?

Pick-up

Pre-order and pick-up of groceries

Pre-order and pick-up of non-grocery purchases (e.g., electronics or home goods)

Since the COVID-19 crisis which of the following are you doing more often, trying new brands or products, and do you expect to continue using the new brands or products?

In vignette two, we get some right, we get some wrong. Our experts weigh in on how transportation rolls on in this future.

I think you’re going to have jobs in the downtowns. I think there’ll just be fewer of them and they’ll have to be skewed more towards very young and

Postcards from the mixed future


32%

27%

19%

19%

38%

41%

Here, we see manufacturer and dealer incentives preventing the automotive industry from previous lows associated with the Great Recession. Such programs as “cash for clunkers” and “employee pricing for all” help dealers and manufacturers avoid getting to dire cash-fl ow issues. Here, we could see government support in the form of low-interest loans to automotive companies and dealers through these times, as long as they maintain certain employment requirements and commit to keeping manufacturing within the United States. Stronger bailouts will likely not be acceptable to the general public or Congress, given that it is not that long ago that the auto industry went through this process. Some of the global manufacturer alliances, where there are pre-existing

Postcards from the mixed future

I will plan a driving vacation to a rural or scenic destination in the U.S.

I will plan a driving vacation to an urban destination in the U.S.

I will plan a fl ying vacation to a rural or scenic destination in the U.S.

I will plan a fl ying vacation to an urban destination in the U.S.

I will be afraid to travel in the U.S. for quite some time.

I do not think I will feel fi nancially comfortable planning a vacation.

Many are planning a road tripThinking of the day when the government lifts stay-at-home bans for your area, to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements: (Agree net)

tensions across country borders and brands, will come under strain given that governments prefer to incentivize headquarters within their own country. These alliances will need to work out ways to assure governments that benefi ts received by the automakers benefi t their countries and employment rosters.


Autonomous vehicle development continues at a steady pace, but rollout is limited to certain freeway lanes with limited access and certain central business districts for commuters. Acceptance of key autonomous features, such as lane-keeping

assistance, will continue to grow with consumers appreciating the convenience that it provides, even if it cannot be used in all situations. Development of enhanced vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle communications will enable limited self-parking and other opportune autonomous features. Major OEMs will provide electric powertrain options on almost all their major models, and more electric powertrain-dedicated models will come into the market. Manufacturers and the federal government will increase collaboration on nationwide fast-charging network standards and locations that make it easier to utilize EVs and go on road trips with them.


(Source: The Ipsos Coronavirus Consumer Tracker, fielded April 17– 20, 2020 among 1,111 U.S. adults.)


This timeline is grim. Let’s not sugar-coat it. But it’s also avoidable. It takes the premise that America fails to overcome its divisiveness and work together toward common goals of getting the economy righted while also keeping people healthy.

Taken to its ultimate extremes, this ends badly. Just because it’s horrifi c, however, doesn’t make it impossible. It’s worth keeping some of these dark thoughts in the back of your head as you plan. TESTING: Testing is ineffective and not well distributed. Lack of FDA approval for antibody tests, counterfeit tests and more, mean that we never have a clear picture of how widespread the illness is or how to measure the effectiveness of various measures to combat the spread. Therefore, the disease itself continues to rage and even though the economy is open, people continue to die at an alarming rate. Living with the disease, social distancing, and wearing PPE when in public becomes the norm for many. For those who don’t follow these guidelines, protests and tensions persist as resentment grows on both sides: those who resent the lockdowns; and those who resent people whose defi ance of restrictions only prolongs those restrictions and the death and suffering of many.

REGIONALISM: Almost exclusively due to a lack of widespread national testing, even parts of the economy that do open wind up closing again because of continued high rates of infection. Tensions grow between areas that are still under various degrees of social distancing and lock-down and those that aren’t. And tensions continue to boil up among those who prioritize their personal sense of freedom over the restrictions put in place for the good of the society writ large. Border checkpoints — some offi cial and some set up by local extremist groups calling themselves “militias” — become more commonplace. Xenophobia increases with regard to people from Asia and of Asian descent, but it’s joined by a growing sense of geítonaphobia — or fear of your neighbors. State by state and city by city, urban vs. rural, Americans turn on each other. Fears of a new form of civil war grow.

EMPLOYMENT: Small businesses and retail take a massive, prolonged hit and many never recover. The shift to online and BOPIS (Buy Online Pick up In Store) accelerates rapidly. But this is a huge problem for real estate, especially in the suburbs, exurbs and rural areas. The revival of main streets comes to a crashing halt. K-12 schools don’t reopen in fall leading to a continued childcare/work-from-home crisis and bifurcation between those who can work remotely and those who can’t. Many colleges and universities — also unable to open — fail, creating a crisis of higher education. Bickering at the federal level means that the stimulus is too slow and too rife with corruption and graft to be effective. The federal government tosses responsibility to the states who aren’t used to having the

lead in many programs and services and aren’t equipped (fi nancially or otherwise) to handle them. This leads to intrastate competition, infi ghting and regional hegemonies that do little to unify or heal the nation and exacerbates existing blue and red state fault lines as well as rural/urban tensions within states themselves.

STIMULUS: Stimulus money runs out in May and Congress can’t agree on further packages amongst partisan infi ghting. Governments at all level begin huge cuts in services and investment. Our infrastructure begins to literally collapse around us. The social safety net is depleted when people need it most. All of the “lack of retirement planning” tropes about the Boomers are exacerbated. The huge generational transfer of wealth that was supposed to save the Millennials vaporizes. The chasm between the 1% and the 99% widens to unsustainable levels. Fears of a “French revolution” rise.

ELECTIONS: State, local and federal authorities fail to coordinate plans for a massive mail-in ballot campaign which is wholly exacerbated by the default and subsequent privatization of the USPS, for which the Senate blocked a bailout supported by the House. Rampant reports of possible hacking, and, similar to the Wisconsin primary, accusations of voting locations being closed based on voter demographics for those who are allowed to vote in person. But the mail is a substantial problem to the point that the validity of the results is questioned after Biden’s apparent victory. The GOP challenges the results in every state they don’t win, and the court cases lead to a constitutional crisis.

Vignette Three:A depression; class warfare; a complete breakdown in our institutions.

REGIONALISM: Almost exclusively due to lead in many programs and services and

A depression; class warfare; a complete

WHAT THE FUTURE | PANDEMIC POWERED BY10

Vignette three is a hot mess future. If we are divided and fail to rise to this challenge, will transportation go off the rails?

I think that the class implications of this, if not addressed, could be awful. Everything I saw in my book, “The Coming of Neo Feudalism,” is now accelerating. For instance, you have this 25% to 35% of the economy that can work from home. They are in some senses insulated. There are extra costs, but they’re using less gas and they’re driving their cars less. What I hear from people in the neighborhoods is their fear is that all the locally-owned businesses, the small local landlords, those people are just going to get wiped out. And Wall Street is going to come in and just buy what’s left so that the middle class will continue to decline. In terms of transportation, the classes that are hurt worst are what I call the yeomanry, the small businesses and then the serfs, who are at the bottom and in many cases are not able to work at home. They face a big risk from the pandemic, but also greater risk of losing their jobs. Because people don’t want to take the train or the subway, the kind of people who will be working in cities like New York are going to be the best paid people because you’re not going to be able to afford to keep in middle management, which was already leaving anyway.

Joel Kotkin Author, urban theorist

Due to the failure to achieve widespread testing, people stop traveling and only do so by personal car or short distances by bike. Airlines fail and are nationalized. Public transit is shut down until the virus abates. As they insulate, people are afraid of outsiders traveling in. This kills travel and tourism, furthering the economic slump. It also encourages residents of high-income blue states to agitate to stop funding transportation projects for red states (mostly highways and under-utilized transit links) indirectly through the federal government.

The slump destroys employment in the transportation sector, forcing major bankruptcies. This also cuts the lifeline to rural America, severing flights, trains, bus service and more. Rural America enters a deeper depression, even as urban America begins to stabilize. Amazon pushes hard to switch en masse to drone delivery over human-powered delivery, resulting in job losses. A deadlocked U.S. government can’t agree on stimulus. Transportation agencies and companies can’t make it and shut down, leaving cars as the only viable means of long-distance transportation.

Alex Salkever Author, futurist, technology leader

The dystopian narrative of fear, ambiguity, and lack of a possible cure has made consumers more reluctant to use any sharing-economy services. Starting with car sharing, several other sharing-economy services, like scooters and

bikes, that have been integrated into the experiences of the city, collapse. The car has become one of the few safe places for consumers. Increasing reliance on the automobile (and RVs) for transportation and travel significantly increase carbon emissions. The “new normal” erases all the positive consumer behavior changes regarding sustainability practices in the last decades. The increasing automation redefines automobiles as the economic agent that earns, spends and saves money. Cars take over transportation roles and robots take over delivery responsibilities. The collapsing of the sharing economy leaves the “human” as an agent out of this emerging and automation-driven economy. People are only allowed to travel if the nanochip implemented underneath their skin clears the security protocols and health criteria that are implemented, enforced, and governed by World Health Organization.

Behice Ilhan Senior trend strategist, Mintel

Postcards from a woeful future

What is your view of self-driving cars?

What is your view of electric cars?

2017

2017

2020

2020

14% 38%

16% 32%

10% 27%

25% 11% NA

26%

19% 38%

13% 8%

22%

22% 46%

9% NA

23%

Will we see a slowdown in demand for new technologies or in R&D spend?

Very positive Somewhat positive

Somewhat negative Very negative Don’t know

(Sources: Ipsos study conducted December 19 and 21, 2017 among 2,000 U.S. adults and May 19 and 20, 2020 among 1,114 U.S. adults; Ipsos survey conducted May 19 – 20, 2020 among 1,114 U.S. adults.)

PANDEMIC | WHAT THE FUTUREPOWERED BY 11

Despite attempts to spur consumer demand with manufacturer, dealer and governmental incentives, consumers in this scenario are not able to purchase vehicles due to loss of jobs, loss of savings/investments or unwillingness to spend on big-ticket items. Vehicle production grinds to a pace not seen since the Great Recession. Supply chains are disrupted because several medium- to large-size suppliers go out of business, cross-border trade is seen as unpatriotic, and each automotive plant forces suppliers to be geographically close to them and adhere to strict guidelines on preventing infection within their component plants. Consumers focus on the importance of durability in vehicles and opt to spend their money on maintenance and repair of their vehicles, and spend limited funds on connectivity and entertainment upgrades to their vehicle, rather than buying a new vehicle. Dealers focus on repairs and maintenance of multiple makes, not just their franchise relationship brands, in order to survive and third-party mechanic

shops spring up with more national chains getting involved in automotive repair and maintenance. Due to low gas costs and pandemic-related fear of flying, road trips take on increased popularity, offset somewhat because the increased age of vehicles discourages excessively long road trips.


Manufacturers decrease investment in electric vehicle development, knowing that consumers are not prepared to pay for new vehicles due to economic reasons and the low price of gas. Investments in autonomous driving technology also decreases since OEMs no longer have resources for this and consumers are not willing to pay extra for such features. Technology that was to come out in the next three years is delayed by over five years, since sensor suppliers, software development and AI companies

don’t have resources or manpower to complete development. Some of the smaller manufacturers consolidate or are bought out in order to survive through this downturn. Auto-finance companies, in an effort to increase vehicles sales will decrease the 720 “excellent” FICO auto score rating required for a good car purchase interest rate to 680 “good” FICO auto score rating. This helps slow the fall in sales, but does not stop the decline even among these consumers. Multi-purpose utility vehicles, such as SUVs and crew cap pickups continue to increase their market share at the expense of large sedans and sports coupes. However, their actual sales volumes will still decrease in absolute numbers.


Will we change how we use our vehicles?Regardless of how frequently you used your vehicle for these activities prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, please indicate how likely you are to do so as restrictions are lifted

(Source: Ipsos study conducted May 19 and 20 among 922 U.S. adults who own or lease a personal vehicle.)

Attending a drive-up religious service

Using your vehicle to go camping

Going to a drive-in movie theater

Taking a trip/get-away vacation by vehicle

Using a drive-thru convenience store

Going to a drive-in restaurant where you stay in your vehicle and food is brought to you (e.g., Sonic, A&W, etc.)

Using traditional drive thru services (e.g., food, banking, etc.)

Less likely Just as likely More likely

33% 57% 10%

30% 63% 7%

27% 58% 14%

24% 60% 16%

22% 64% 13%

20% 64% 16%

14% 66% 20%

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WHAT THE FUTURE | PANDEMIC012 © 2020 IPSOS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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