world climate research programme (wcrp) - wcrp grand … · 2016-07-18 · implementation plan for...

ImplementationPlanforWCRPGrandChallengeonUnderstandingandPredictingWeatherandClimate

ExtremesThe“ExtremesGrandChallenge”

Version30thJune2016byco-chairs

LisaAlexander,XuebinZhang,GabiHegerlandSoniaSeneviratne

andThemeco-leads

AliBehrangi,ErichFischer,OliviaMartius,FriederikeOtto,JanaSillmann,RobertVautard

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ThisimplementationplanfollowsonfromtheWCRPGrandChallengeonExtremesWhitePaper(http://www.wcrp-climate.org/index.php/gc-extreme-events).

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OVERVIEW

TheExtremesGrandChallengegoalis:-

Towardsrobustpredictionsandprojectionsofextremes

In order to best progress us towards this goal, our implementation plan isdivided into four overarching themes, which will be addressed broadly asfollows:

1. DOCUMENTAreexistingobservationssufficienttounderpintheassessmentofextremes?

2. UNDERSTANDWhataretherelativerolesoflarge-scale,regionalandlocalscaleprocesses,aswellastheirinteractions,fortheformationofextremes?

3. SIMULATEAremodelsabletoreliablysimulateextremesandtheirchanges,andhowcanthisbeevaluatedandimproved?

4. ATTRIBUTEWhatarethecontributorstoobservedextremeeventsandtochangesinthefrequencyandintensityoftheobservedextremes?

The implementation plan focuses onwhat isdoable by the end of 2017whileacknowledging the need for stretch targets beyond this. For that reason ourmain implementation strategy focuses on four core events: 1. heatwaves, 2.droughts,3.heavyprecipitationand4.storms,whileothertypesofeventswillbenefitindirectlyfromadvancesmadehere.ThestormsthemewillbeprimarilyledbyHIWeather(seebelow)butwithjointworkshopandsymposiumactivitiesplanned.Theimplementationplanissummarizedinthefollowingschematic.

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ExtremesGrandChallenge:Towardsrobustpredictionsandprojections

All activities will be closely coordinated with the research activity on HighImpactWeather (HIWeather)within theWorldWeatherResearchProgramme(WWRP – see P15 on cross-cutting activities andhttp://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/HIW_IP_v1_4.pdf) and relevant activities in the other GrandChallenges(seehttp://wcrp-climate.org/grand-challenges).

Each Theme will be driven by two or three lead coordinators who will pushimplementation forward, with input and vision from identified maincontributors to this Grand Challenge to engage the worldwide researchcommunityonextremes.

For each theme we have split the implementation into a section which dealswith coordination needs across and between existing activities, and a furthersectionwhichhighlightswhatnewactivities,researchordatagatheringneedstobeundertaken.

Thefourthemesarecloselylinkedwithmuchoverlap,andweanticipatestronglinksbetweenthethemes.Tofurtherthis,cross-cuttingactivitiesareproposedthat address several of the theme questions and link to other WCRP GrandChallengesandinternationalactivities.

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Particularfocusshouldbegiventoproviding“actionableinformation”inorderthat researchmakesrealprogressand toovercomebarriers thathavebeen inplace for too long e.g. data availability issues, understanding regional-scalefeedbacks.We have identifiedwhere this is possible, both due to advances inscienceandbybringingtogetherdifferentstrandsofexpertise,suchasextremesresearch with a strong meteorological focus, process studies, high resolutionmodelling,andstatistics.Wealsoaimtoengagethewiderresearchcommunitytosparkthepublic’sinterestinextremesresearch.

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THEME1:DOCUMENTLeadCoordinators:LisaAlexander,AliBehrangi

Areexistingobservationssufficienttounderpintheassessmentofextremes?

Thisthemedealswithdocumentingandassessingpastchangesinextremesandin theprocess todeterminetheadequacyofourcurrentobservationalsuiteofdata.Observationsarethekeyfoundationforunderstandinglong-termclimatevariability and change but observations are often not well-constrained andcritical gaps exist in the amount, quality, consistency and availability ofobservations especiallywith respect to extremes. The current suite of climateextremes datasets is inadequate to properly assess climate variability andchangeandtoprovidetherequiredunderpinningfordetectionandattributionstudies andmodel evaluation. This is due to data limitations (in time and/orspace),differencesinhowextremesaredefined,thespatialrepresentativenessofpoint-basedmeasurements,scalingissuesbetweenobservations(insituandremotely sensed) and models and uncertainties in variable estimates fromsatelliteretrievals.Weneedtofind,collateandbetterdisseminatedatafromallexistingsourcesthatarerelevantforextremesandtoidentifyregionsandtimeperiodswherewecanfillingapsandassessuncertainties.

Extremes are, by definition, rare. Thismeans it takes longer timeperiods andbetter resolution in both space and time to properly characterize long-termchanges in extreme events. This also means that some extreme values (e.g.amountofshortdurationrainfall)maybepronetobefilteredoutbytheusualdata quality control (QC) procedures. It is important to instigate efforts toundertakenewandnovelQC/homogenisationalgorithmsandbenchmarktheirperformanceatdailyandsub-dailytimescales,worktocreateanintegratedsetofholdingsof in situdataoverglobal landareaswhichcombineshourly,dailyandmonthly series across all elements including building datasets of parallelmeasurements to measure changes in observation systems including fromsatelliteretrievals,todigitizedatainascosteffectivemanneraspossibleandtoimprove data provision.WCRP shouldworkwith other organizations such asWMO and space agencies to promote free, open and easy access to allmeteorologicalandclimatedatainauseableformat.

In thecaseofdatadigitization,prior to themid-20thcentury,weestimate thatthereareasmanyterrestrialandmarinedatathathaven’tbeendigitizedashavebeen,andthatweloseabouthalfamillionoldrecordseveryday.Thislossofourpast, lack of coordination of activities, inability to store and access all data

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readily, and reliance on small groups of key people means that unnecessaryeffortandresourcesalwayshastobeappliedtodataprojectswhicharealreadyvastlyunder-resourced.Thereoccurringtendencyfordatarescueprojectstobeadhocandtohavebeenseverelyconstrainedbyinsufficientfunding,resourcesand unrealistic deadlines has meant that we have inherited the accumulatedlegacyof a short sightedapproach,makingany task to remedy the situationamonumentalundertaking(grandchallenge)initself.Weneedagrandvisionforhowwedealwiththesedataissuesbeforethesituationbecomesuntenablebutwheretherequireddataalreadyexist,aminimalcoordinatedeffortcouldreapenormousbenefits.

Anotherissueforextremesisthegeneralmismatchinthespatialscalesbetweenpoint-based observations, satellite estimates andmodel simulations (typicallyinterpreted as representing an area of a model grid), making it difficult toconductalike-with-likecomparisonbetweenobservationsandmodels.Varioustechniques have been used to grid or to interpolate station data to aidobservation and model comparison. There are several intertwined issuesincludingspatialaveraging,unevennumberofstations/observationsacrossthespace,theorderofoperation(i.e.scalingissues)andmanyotherparametricandstructural uncertainties. Work is required to understand these effects and ifpossible rule out certain approaches to avoid artificial spread. Some datasourcesmayhavebeenunder-used(e.g.reanalyses,varioussatelliteandradardataproducts)andcouldallowbettercharacterizationofthespatialfootprintofextremes but in some cases these data sources are being used withoutunderstanding their suitability for assessing various extremes. We need toevaluateall existingproductswith respect toextremeswithaparticular focuson precipitation that will require extensive coordination with the WaterAvailabilityGrandChallengeinparticular.

Themainadvanceforthisthemewillbebasedoncontinuingandstrengtheningexisting data gathering activities in order to fill gaps and better match theavailable data with what is required for diagnostics, model evaluation anddetection/attribution. This should be done in close coordination with othergrandchallengesanddatainitiativesandshouldinclude:-

Coordinationofexistingandforthcomingactivitiesspecifictothistheme

• Collation and quality control of all existing in situ daily data sources fortemperature and precipitation (and sub-daily for precipitation) e.g. GHCN-Daily, GPCC, HadISD, ICA&D etc. and raw data collection from HydroMet

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services and researchers stored in central repository. This should beorganizedinsuchawaytoalsoencouragenewinternationaldatainitiativessuch as EUSTACE and INTENSE to be added and to follow the example forquality and accessibility from the International Surface TemperatureInitiative (ISTI). Coordination should also ensue with existing data rescueinitiatives e.g. ACRE to ensure that ‘old weather’ records are incorporatedinto above activities. Ensure, to the extent possible, that data adhere tocommondata quality assurance andmetadata standards, and that they aredisseminatedusingacommonformat,therebyimprovingtheexchangeabilityof existing data and promoting development of community data analysistools.WCRPcontinuestoencouragefreeandopeninternationalexchangeofexisting high time resolution data to improve global coverage of daily andsub-daily observations for temperature and precipitation extremes inparticular, and identify steps thatwould improve data sharing. [coordinatewithGDAP,GHP]

• CollationofallETCCDIinsitudataincludingHadEX2,GHCNDEXandregionalindicesidentifiedviaaliteraturereview.Similarlytoaboveshouldbestoredinacentralrepositoryanddisseminatedviaawebportalsuchasclimdex.org.

• Workshop(Sydney,Feb2015):Toassessthedatarequirementswithinandbetween existing observations of extremes (e.g. in situ and remote sensing,existing and future datasets). Thus this workshop provides interactionbetween communities that have not previouslyworked together before. Inaddition, itwilldeliverastrategyfordatacollectionandindicescalculation,coordinationandbestpracticewhichmayultimatelyleadtorequirementsfornewinitiatives,softwareetc.

Newresearch/activity/datagatheringrequirements

• ETCCDIindicestobereviewedandnewindicesadded,especiallythosethatbetter represent capture long-term precipitation surplus and deficit, soilmoisture,drought,heatwaves,andmoreimpacts-relevantindices.Thiswouldalso include a few more indices to capture changes in the shape of thetemperaturedistribution.

• Standardisedsoftwareandanassociatedmanualwillbedevelopedtoensurethat all ETCCDI calculations are calculated in the same way forintercomparison.Coordinationshouldthenensuebetweenothergroupswhoare already working towards the Global Framework on Climate Services.Input and output data formats, including metadata, should be coordinatedacrossvariouscommunities [coordinatedwithWGRC,ET-SCI,TT-TCI,GDIS,CORDEX,WaterAvailabilityGrandChallenge].

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• A‘bestpractice’guidancedocumenttobeproducedongriddingdatatobestrepresent extremes and address scaling issues between observations andmodels.Therecommendationswillbeusedtoproducerevisedglobalclimateextremes datasets that extend over the 20th century, improve spatial andtemporal coverage and provide uncertainty estimates. Approaches will beconsideredbasedonavarietyoftechniquesincludingthosebasedonspatialstatisticsofextremes.

• Aguidancedocument tobeproducedon the suitability of existingdatasets(e.g.insitu-based,satelliteandreanalysesproducts)tostudyextremeswithparticular focus on the four core events: heavy precipitation, heatwaves,droughtsandstorms.Thoughtwillbegivenonhowtobestdisseminatetheinformationtoresearcherssuchasthroughadedicatedwebsite.

• A coordinated intercomparison of existing and new datasets should beconductedincludingthestandardcalculationofprecipitationextremesfromsatelliteretrievals.Thisintercomparisonwouldprovideaformalframeworktoaddressuncertaintyandscalingissueswitharecommendedprimaryfocuson the first three core events i.e. heatwaves, droughts and heavyprecipitation.Thedatarequirementsforthefourthcoreevent“storms”tobecoordinated throughWWRP.Furthermore, therequirements for the typeofsatelliteobservationsneededtostudythecoreeventsshouldbeidentifiedtoguide current and future generation of the products. When consideringETCCDI indices, forexample,existingsatellitecapabilitiesshouldberevised(e.g.appropriatecalculationofdailyTmaxandTmin)ornewindicesshouldbeaddedaccordingly.

• Workshop (ColumbiaUniversity, 2016)with a focuson thedataneeds forhigh impact weather (including tropical and extra tropical cyclones)coordinated by theWWRP research activity on High ImpactWeather withinput from the Extremes GC. Part-funding would come from ColumbiaUniversity.Thiswillalsobeacross-cuttingactivity.

• Whilemostof theaboveactivitiesrelate to land-basedextremes,additionalactivities which focus on ocean extremes e.g. marine heatwaves, extremewave height storm surges will be encouraged and supported (see cross-cuttingactivitiesonPage15).

THEME2:UNDERSTANDLeadCoordinators:SoniaSeneviratne,OliviaMartius,RobertVautard

Whataretherelativerolesoflarge-scale,regionalandlocalscaleprocesses,aswellastheirinteractions,fortheformationofextremes?

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A range ofmechanisms can lead to the occurrence of extreme events such asheat waves, droughts or floods. Recent investigations have shown that theinteraction between large-scale drivers and regional-scale (in particular land)feedbacks or forcings can be critical. For instance soil moisture-temperaturefeedbacks amplify heat waves in many regions, and were shown to play animportant role in recent extreme hot events, such as the 2003European heatwave, the 2010 Russian heatwave, or the 2012/2013 Australian summer.MoistureevaporatedfromthelandwasalsoidentifiedasamajorcontributortotheprecipitationeventsthatledtothePakistanfloodsin2010andthefloodsinGermany in 2013. Warm sea surface temperatures, combined with specificatmospheric circulation are known to drive heavy rains such as inMediterranean regions. Additionally forcing from land cover and land usechanges can be important for either amplifying or damping the occurrence ofextremeevents.Similarly,theroleofthetropicalSSTanomalies,meltingArcticsea ice, changes in storm tracks andweather extremes inEurasianeeds tobeclarified.Thesechangescanaffectthefrequency,intensityandthepathwaysandpersistence of individual weather systems such as cyclones, anticyclones andfronts, large-scale weather regimes and teleconnection patterns. Processesacting to trigger, favour duration or terminate persistent weather regimepatternsneedtobebetterunderstood,aswellastheirchangeswith increasedgreenhouse gases (baroclinic wave interactions, diabatic processes, tropical-extratropical interactions). For progress to occur, the link between dynamicalmeteorologyandclimateneedstobestrengthened.Finally,thereisanadditionalneedtounderstandwhicheventsleadtospecificimpactsandwhichfeaturesofgiveneventsaremostrelevanttotheseimpacts.

A better quantification of these processes, thanks to interactions betweenresearch communities working both on large-scale atmospheric drivers andregional land-atmosphere feedbacks is essential to reduce uncertainties inprojections, improvesub-seasonaltodecadalpredictabilityofextremesaswellas theattributionofpast trendsandsingleevents.Theroleof internalclimatevariabilityfortheoccurrenceofextremesalsoneedstobecarefullyevaluated,inparticular for past recent trends and in order to assess their contribution toprojections’ uncertainty. This will entail a study of the link between climatevariabilityandindividualweathersystems(blockingorcyclones)thatcausetheextremes.Thisalsoencompassestheincreasingandnecessaryamountofworkon statistical methods andmodels to detect changes in extreme events, theircharacteristics and clustering. Connection between large-scale circulation andindividual,sometimessmall-scaleeventswillbestrengthenedusing‘storylines’.This will be done in connection to the Simulate and Attribute themes of theimplementationplan.

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Manyof theactivitieswillbe cross-cutting,providing links to the “Document”,“Simulate”and“Attribute”themes.


Coordinatedmodelexperimentsandanalysesconsideringtherespectiveroleoflarge-scaleversusregional/landdriversofextremeswillbeconductedusingvariousframeworks:

• ExtreMExexperiments:Experiments isolating theroleof large-scaledriversversus regional-scale feedbacks and forcings for observed recent extremeevents (2010-2015).Theseexperimentsare incurrentplanningandwillbecoordinatedwiththeEU-FP7EUCLEIAprojectandasafollow-upofthe2015WCRPworkshoponextremesinOslo.

• LS3MIP CMIP6 experiment: Coordinated experiment between GEWEX andCliC addressing the role of soil moisture- and snow-climate feedbacks inhistorical simulations and climate projections (building upon the GLACEframework),ascomparedtotheroleofatmosphericcirculationandSST.

• LUMIPCMIP6experiment:Coordinatedexperiment investigatingtheroleoflanduseforcingforclimatesimulations.

• Dedicated experiments coordinated among contributors to the GrandChallenge (e.g. focused on predictability issues, land cover and land useaspects, regional-scale CORDEX-type experiments and the investigation ofregionalcasestudies.

• Inaddition,severalfundedprojectsfromtheEuropeanResearchCouncilwillcontributetothistheme:

• “DROUGHT-HEAT” (ETH): Experiments assessing the role of land-climatefeedbacksforextremesinpresentandfutureclimate

• ERC“A2C2”(LSCE):Useofatmosphericflowanaloguestoassesstheimpactoflarge-scalecirculationdriversforextremes,whichtacklesin particular the issue of how to detect changes and exceptionalatmosphericcirculations

• ERC “TITAN” (U. Edinburgh): Evaluating role of black carbon,forcing and SSTs in early 20th century extremes in Europe andNorthAmerica

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Summer schools are essential tools to foster in-depth understanding ofunderlying mechanisms leading to extremes and to train and develop youngscientists:

• TheWCRP/ICTP summer school Trieste, July 2014: Definition of extremes,attribution of extremes, physical drivers of extremes, observations ofextremes. This school represented a cross-cutting activity (see Page 15) totrain the next generation of leaders in this field, enhancing capacity. Theworkshop has resulted in 7 student-led papers based on the researchproblemstackledbythestudentsduringtheworkshop. Thesepaperswereincludedinaspecialissueforthejournal“WeatherandClimateExtremes”in2015(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/22120947/9).

• SwissInternationalSummerSchoolonextremes,August2015.Thissummerschool is a further activity to train future leaders in the field of extremesresearch. This summer school also specifically included an interface toimpacts research with presentations and workshops by representatives oftheimpactscommunity(RedCrossandRedCrescent,SwissRe,MeteoSwiss).

Workshopsandconferences

• “Our common future under climate change” conference held at UNESCO inParisinJuly2015,withseveralparallelsessionsonextremeevents:“ClimateExtremes”, “Attribution of extreme events”, “ExtremeHydrological Events”,andalargeparallelsession.

• M-CLIXworkshop,October2015(seealsoSimulate):SessionandBreak-outgroupsaddressing“Understand”theme.

• LandMIP (Land modelling) workshop (October 2015): Coordination ofLS3MIP and LUMIP CMIP6 experiments, including aspects relevant toextremes (e.g. model output, experimental set-ups). Jointly organized byGEWEXandCliC.

• Blockingworkshop(6-8April2016Reading):Overviewofprocessesleadingtoblocking, evaluationof representationofblocking in current climate andweathermodels, links between blocking and regional (feedback) processes(http://www.sparc-climate.org/meetings/wwwsparc-climateorgmeetingssparc-blocking-workshop-april2016/)

• Synthesis “Understand” Workshop (TBA, late 2016 or 2017): workshopsynthesizingresultsof firstExtreMExmodellingexperimentsanddedicatedanalyses,andplannedspecialissueandreviewarticle.

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• ModellingexperimentsconductedbyWCRPprojectscancontributetobetterdetermine the role of distinct drivers and feedbacks for extremes. Suchexperiments should be complemented with the analysis of observationaldatasets newly compiled within the Grand Challenge, as well as therespective validation activities. A database of reference modellingexperiments will be made available for the research community, includingwithinCMIP6.

• LinksbetweenGEWEX,CLIVARandCliCarelongestablishedandwillbebuiltupon. In addition, SPARC and WWRP have also been newly integratedthrough the contribution of Olivia Martius. Some activities will becoordinated with other WCRP bodies (e.g. WGRC for CORDEX-typeexperiments, WGCM for CMIP6 experiments, possibly also WGSIP forpredictabilityexperiments).Linkswiththeeventattributioncommunityarealso alreadyestablished through IDAGandEUCLEIA, in addition to links toTheme4(Attribute).

THEME3:SIMULATELeadcoordinators:GabiHegerl,ErichFischer,JanaSillmann

Aremodelsabletoreliablysimulateextremesandtheirchanges,andhowcanthisbeevaluatedandimproved?

Thereisalackofunderstandinginthetypesofeventsthatcurrentmodelscanprovide credible and robust simulations for, and in the identification of keyprocessesforclimatemodelstocaptureinordertoproducecrediblesimulationsof weather and climate extreme events and thus improve prediction of thoseevents. Furthermore, the ability ofmodels to simulate particularly small-scaleextremes depends on resolution and sometimes requires downscaling. Weproposethefollowingthree-prongedapproach:

Evaluation of extremes at the level of storylines or processes (incoordinationwith themeUnderstand). Storylines that lead to extremes canbeanalysedandthemodels’abilitytosimulatetheconditionsleadingtoextremescan be evaluated. Understanding the interplay of various processes includingatmospheric,land,andoceanicprocessesthatleadtoprolongeddroughtsorwetseasonsmayshednew light toguidemodeldevelopment.Contributions to thechangingprobabilityofextremesbyanomalousseasurfaceand iceconditions,andbychangingradiativeforcingneedtobequantifiedandevaluatedinclimatemodels.Itisimportanttoselectasetofpriorityevents/caseforcomprehensive

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comparison, with an aim to understanding interactions of large-scale driversandlocal(e.g.land-surface)feedbacks,usingvariousapproachesincludingeventattribution.Eventsthatareoflargespatial-temporal(continentalandseasonal)scales and that involve heavy precipitation or heatwavesmay provide betteropportunity to advance. The selection of such events should considergeographicalbalancesuchthateventsthatoccurredinlessdevelopedworldgetselectedandstudied,althoughitisrecognizedthatavailabilityofdatamaybeamorechallengingissueinlessdevelopedworld.Spatialscalemaybeimportanthere aswell, for example, blocking anti-cyclones are better simulated in high-resolutionmodels.

Asetofmetricsinformedbydynamicalandphysicalconceptsneedstobedevelopedthataimto identifystrengthsandweaknesses inmodelsimulationsofconditionsthataretypicallyassociatedwithextremes,suchasblockinganti-cyclonesor land-atmosphere feedbacks, and in the simulationof the extremesthemselves, linking model performance of regional extremes to modelperformanceinlarge-scalecirculationandlocalfeedbacks.Statisticalmodellingtechniques based on general extreme value theory (e.g., to estimate returnvalues)thatcomplementwidelyusedindices(e.g.,ETCCDI)shouldbeexploitedfor model evaluation in terms of incorporating co-variates that representunderlying processes. Furthermore, multivariate statistical techniques thataccountforphysicalandstatisticalrelationshipsbetweenextremesthatoccuratdifferentlocationsandindifferentvariables(i.e.,temperatureandprecipitation)needtobedevelopedsothattheycanmorereadilybeappliedtoweatherandclimate problems. The potential of using well-established statistical conceptsandmethods from the field of NumericalWeather Prediction (NWP) forecastevaluation needs to be explored and further developed for the assessment ofclimate model performances. These activities imply close collaboration withdynamicists,statisticiansandscientistsworkingwithNWPforecastevaluation.

An assessment of the benefit of high-resolution models inpredicting/simulatingextremesatsmallspatialscalesatthemarginofwhatcanbe resolved by present models, or beyond needs to be performed. Statisticalmethodstodownscaleunresolvedprocessesalsoneedtobeevaluated.Linkstothe CORDEX community are established and will be developed further.Strategies to address events that require high resolution, such as tropicalcyclones, need to be compared and evaluated.Wheremodels do simulate thefundamental underlying processes that produce extremes, dynamically basedscaling approaches need to be developed in order to be able to better linkprocesses at model scales with local scales. It needs to be considered thatobservations provide point-data, and statistical methods to quantitatively

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comparethosewithmodeldataneedtobeimprovedanddisseminated(seealsoDocumenttheme).

Advances and analyses continue to rely on data for model evaluation anddetection and attribution: long-control simulations to characterize thevariability in both circulation states and extremes; single-forcing sensitivityexperiments, and other MIPs need to be engaged to save and archive highfrequency data. The conditions leading to rare extremes in observationsinevitably pose a sampling problem inmodel-data comparison. This could beaddressed to some extent bymodel evaluation usingmoderate extremes andthroughtheuseoflargeensemblesofmodelsimulationscoveringtheperiodofhistorical observations, and will also benefit from extending the record ofhistorical observations (Document theme). The forced simulations shouldprovidelargeensemblestosamplevariabilityinextremes,whichisachallengefrom the relatively short observational record alone.Work is planned to pre-process high-frequency data in order to extract information relevant toextremessothattheyaremoreeasilyaccessibletothewiderusercommunity.Intra-seasonal to seasonal prediction, near-term prediction of probability ofextreme events at impact relevant space/time scaleswill play an increasinglyimportantroleforclimateservices.ThisrequirestheExtremesGCtoworkandengage with other groups such as WGSIP and CFHP so that high resolutionmodeldataaremadeavailableandmodelsarealsoevaluatedusingnewmetricsthatexplicitlytakeextremesintoconsideration.

Inallcasesitisvitalthatweworkcloselywithstatisticianstoincludethelatestadvancesandbestmethodsinstatisticalmodellingintoourapproaches.


• Workshop(OsloOctober2015):TheM-CLIXworkshopinOslo(Norway)inOctober 2015was an excellent opportunity to discuss the following issuesthat need to be addressed for evaluating and improving the simulation ofchanges in extremes. This is important because climate model evaluationstops short of extremes generally, except for very simple diagnostics. Theworkshop brought together dynamicists/severe weather specialists withstatisticians and people analysing models so that best practice can bedevelopedformodelevaluation,possiblytobepublishedasawhiteorreviewpaperbasedonCMIP5dataanalysis.Wewillaimtofindfundingforafollow-up workshop in 2017 to document progress. We aim to illustrate model

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evaluationfocusingonextremeswithkeyexamples.Thefollowingquestionswerespecificallyaddressed:-

o Can climate models be evaluated for more moderate extremes forwhichampledataareavailable(suchastheETCCDIindices),andwhatdowemissformorerareextremes(e.g.,dowemissastrongerroleofland surface feedbacks for rare hot extremes)? The latter can beaddressed by linking to the individual event attribution communitythatdetermineswhatledtoaneventaswell.

o Canwe use ‘storylines’ that link specific high impact events to large-scalecirculationsituationstoevaluatetheabilityofmodelstosimulatethe key mechanisms for extremes, including blocking, for example?Whatdoesthismeanformodelevaluation?

o What standard model diagnostics are important for extremes, andwhichofmanypossiblechoicesofimplementationshouldbecompared(example:whichcirculationindex)?

o How can the scale problem be overcome? Statisticians can advise onwhat new techniques are available to address the point versus areaproblem that particularly hampers the evaluation of precipitationextremes; and we need to link to regional modelling using e.g.embeddedtropicalcyclonesmodels.

o Which featuresofextremescanbe forecast for thenextyears/decadeusinginitializedforecastsorforcing?

o Whatdataareneededtobettersupportmodelevaluationofextremes?

• Continued engagement with CORDEX community e.g. CORDEX meeting inHamburg, February 2016, CORDEX conference in Stockholm, May 2016 -Keynotetalkintheextremessessionontheglobalmodellingeffortsintermsof climate extremes indices and their relevance and application for theCORDEXcommunity.


• Developstorylinesinvolvedinobservedextremesandasetofmetricsneedsto be developed for assessing the models’ ability to simulate dynamicalconditions conducive to extremes (e.g., for example, blocking). Proposemetrics to compare and measure local feedbacks to extremes (e.g., dryconditions enhancing heatwaves). This should be coordinated with theregionalclimatemodellinginitiativese.g.WGRC.

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• Determine methods to quantify feedbacks involved in extremes in modelsand data. In connection with the Understand theme, observationaldiagnosticsrepresentativeofphysicaldriversofextremeswillbederivedtoallow theevaluationof climatemodels inbothpresentand future climates.Thiswillbedisseminated inaguidancepaperonextremesevaluationtobewrittenin2016.

• Specificfundedresearchwilladdresssomeofthistopic;e.g.apostdocfundedby the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS; UK) is evaluatingconditions leading to extremes in models; ERC advanced grant TITAN(Hegerl)iscomparingsimulationsofextremesbyweather@homewithmorerecent singlemodel runs; project submitted to theNewton Fund comparesstatistical extrapolation of extremes with large ensembles to identifyfeedbacksforChina.

• Input fromthedetection/attributionandeventattributioncommunity fromfutureIDAGmeetings(seeAttributetheme)andinthenextEUCLEIAmeetingisrequiredtofurtheradvancethistheme.Resultstobedisseminatedviahighimpactcommentarypiece(seecross-cuttingactivities).

• Developmethods to evaluate small-scale extremes. Thiswill be attacked attheCargesesummerschoolandtheBanffworkshop(seecoordinatedandco-sponsoredactivitiesonPages16-17).

• SessiononAdvancedmethods forevaluatingweatherandclimateextremesinclimatemodelsimulations(co-conveners: JanaSillmann,PhilippeNaveauand Erich Fischer) at the 13th International Meeting on StatisticalClimatology(13IMSC),June6-102016inCanmore,Alberta.

THEME4:ATTRIBUTELeadcoordinators:XuebinZhang,FriederikeOtto

Whatarethecontributorstoobservedextremeeventsandtochangesinthefrequencyandintensityoftheobservedextremes?

Akeychallengeforthecommunityistoprovideaccesstothelatestinformationonhowextremeshavevariedorarelikelytovaryunderachangingclimateanda range of likely greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The extent to whichhumans are responsible for changes in extremes and particularly individualextreme weather events is a challenging topic. They are addressed both by

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evaluating change in the global or large-scale pattern in the frequency orintensityofextremes(e.g.,observedwidespreadintensificationofprecipitationextremesattributedtohumaninfluence, increase in frequencyand intensityofhot extremes) and by event attribution methods. Since 2012, with thepublicationof theannualBAMSspecial issueonextremes inaclimatecontext,the number of research groups and methodologies for the attribution ofindividualextremeweathereventshas increasedrapidlyandgathereda lotofinterest fromboth the scientific community and particularly thewider public.Differentmethodologies and thusways of framing the attribution question aswell as differentways of defining an extreme event lead to differences in thequantificationoftherolethatexternalclimatedriversplay.

Quantitative attribution statementsnecessarily relyonmodels to simulate thecounterfactualworldthatmighthavebeenwithoutanthropogenicinfluencesontheatmosphericcomposition.Twofundamentallydifferentmodellingstrategiesare applied: physical modelling of the climate system under current andcounterfactual climate conditions using coupled or sea surface temperaturedriven general circulation models on the one hand and statistical modellingbasedonobservedrecordsontheother.Dependingonthespatialandtemporalscalesofextremeevents,thetypeofeventandtheobservationaldataused(seeDocumenttheme),onemethodmightyieldmorerobustresultsovertheotherinmostcases,however,thehighestconfidenceinresultscanbegainedbyapplyingatleasttwoindependentapproachesandmultipleobservationaldatasets.Eventattribution analyses as a less established field of research brings the largelyindependentlydevelopedscientificapproachestogether.

This is also true for large-scale attribution studies based on the spatial andtemporalevolutionofextremesbutwiththehighmediaattentionandeffortstodevelop operational event attribution approaches, the communication anddisseminationofattributionresultsbecomesanadditionalchallenge.Whilethescientific community is aware of the fact that these different approaches willprovide different answers to the attribution question, such results might beperceivedascontradictoryinsomeinstancestoabroaderaudience.Hencecloseinteractionwithstakeholdersandpotentialusersofattributionassessments isparticularlyimportantineventattributionactivities.

The International Detection and Attribution Group (IDAG; with Zhang andHegerl in the steering committee) provides a platform where both activities,eventandlarge-scaleattribution,interactaswellasinseveralworldwideeventattribution activities (US activities; European projects e.g. EUCLEIA, withVautard, Otto, Seneviratne and Hegerl involved; World Weather Attribution

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project ledbyClimateCentral, includingOttoas teamleadandGC leadersandcontributors in theScientificOversightCommittee).Bothprojectshavea largecomponent of social scientific research and stakeholder engagement. We willensure that these communities are engaged in the activities in the otheroverarchingThemes(Document,Understand,Simulate)andcanprovideinput.

Further implementation of this Theme was discussed at the IDAG meeting(Boulder,February2016),andatthenextEUCLEIAmeeting.Inparticularinthecross-cutting initiatives of the WCRP Grand Challenge we will work ontransferring the lessons learned from combining statistical and physicalmodellingapproachesinattributionassessmentstoenhanceourunderstandingofextremesandimprovethesimulationofextremeweatherevents.


• SummerSchool(Trieste,July2014)andspecialissue(seealsoUnderstandtheme): Definition of extremes, attribution of extremes, physical drivers ofextremes,observationsofextremes.Thisschoolrepresentedacross-cuttingactivity (see Page 15) to train the next generation of leaders in this field,enhancingcapacity.Theworkshophasresultedin7student-ledpapersbasedon the research problems tackled by the students during the workshop.Thesepaperswere included inaspecial issue for the journal “WeatherandClimate Extremes” in 2015(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/22120947/9).

• Areviewpaperonrecentadvances in themethodologyofeventattributionandchallenges inframingtheattributionquestionis forthcominginWIRES,withOttoandVautardasco-authors.

• Coordination of existing grants: ERC grant ‘TITAN’ (Hegerl, U Edinburgh)attributingearly20thcenturyextremesintemperatureinUSandEuropeandseparating the role of circulation vs forcing; ERC grant “DROUGHT-HEAT”(Seneviratne, ETH Zurich) considering processes relevant to drought andheatwaveattribution,plannedactivitiesunderBelmontForum.

• EU Project EUCLEIA developing an event attribution system (lead UK MetOffice)

• Close links will be developed to the CLIVAR Dynamics Panel activitiesfocusingonmodesofclimatevariability.

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• A large international effort in explaining each year’s extreme events in thecontextofclimatechangeisbeingundertakenandtakingtheformofaseriesofpeer-reviewedarticlesinasupplementaryissueoftheBAMSjournal.Thisinitiative is becoming very popular in the scientific communityworking onextremeeventsandalargebodyofmaterialisalreadypresent.

• TheBoardonAtmosphericSciencesandClimate(BASC) iscommissioninganewNationalResearchCouncil(NRC)fast-trackstudytoexaminethescienceof attribution of specific extremeweather events to human-caused climatechangeandnaturalvariability.Aworkshopfortheattributioncommunitytoinput into the report is currently scheduled for late 2015 with the aim topublishthereportinearly2016(Hegerlonthepanel).


• ThecommunitywillcontinuetoactivelyengageintheannualBulletinoftheAmerican Meteorological Society (BAMS) report on attribution of climate-relatedeventsfromthepreviousyear.

• Meeting(IDAGJanuary2015):AbrainstormingsessionattheIDAGmeetingin Boulder has been held in order to provide a list of necessary steps,supported by the community, as to how CLIVAR/GEWEX can support andcoordinate detection and attribution and ensure the robustness of results.The topic further arose during the EUCLEIAmeeting in July 2015 and it isexpected that a report on the way forward will be produced. A furtherbrainstormingactivitywasplannedinIDAG,Feb2016,Boulder.

• Workshop (Canmore, Alberta, June 2016): Aworkshop on “Framing eventattribution questions”. Climate change detection and attribution (D&A)research over the past decade has increasingly focused on changes in thefrequency and intensity of rare, high impact weather and climate events(extremes), including “event attribution”. There are similarities anddifferences in the questions posed by D&A research, which focus on long-termchangesinthestatisticsofextremesandeventattributionofindividualevents, and in themethodsaddressing them.There isalsoanactivedebateabout how to “frame” event attribution questions leading to differentimplementations of event attribution. The questions include “did humansaffect itsmagnitudeor the functioning of theprocesses responsible for theevent?”,“giventhesynopticstructureofanevent,didhumaninfluencealteritsimpact?”,“didhumaninfluencealtertheodds?”,“didotherfactorsfurthermodify theodds(e.g., thepatternofSSTanomalies)?”.Allof these framingsare valid, but not all are amenable to prospective risk assessment, risk

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mitigation planning and risk sharing, and thus theymay not all be equallyuseful. This workshop will bring together researchers from a communitybroader than the D&A community to discuss the path forward for eventattribution. Issues to be discussed include the framing event attributionquestions,howthe framingrelates todifferentpurposes, scopingof furtherdevelopmentinrelationtoitsdifferentobjectives,andtheinterpretationandcommunication of results. Possible workshop outcomes could includeproducing a vision for the continued development of event attributionscience and/or a good practice guidance document on the detection andattributionof changes in climate extremes to guide theAR6assessmentonthisimportanttopic.

• Workshop (RMetS/NCASconference,Manchester,UK July2016):Asessionon“Attributionofchangesinextremeevents”aimstoadvanceacrucialandrapidly developing aspect of Extremes Grand Challenge - research into theattribution of past changes in extreme events. It brings together thecommunity investigating mechanisms and the attribution community inorder to nudge attribution science towards making quantitative use ofmechanismsand feedbackswhenattributingandevaluatingmodels; and toraise awareness of quantitative attribution methods in the synoptic andmodellingcommunity.TheoverarchinggoalistofacilitatetheUKcommunitycontinuingtoplayaleadingroleinthisinternationalactivity.Multipleshortpresentations by poster presenters, many Early Career Scientists, on theirviewof key challengeson extremes, followedby general discussion.HegerlwillreportbackonoutcomestoGrandChallengeteam.

CROSS-CUTTINGACTIVITIESTrainingthenextgenerationofscientists

• At all levels of the Extremes Grand Challenge we will entrain early careerresearchersincludinginleadershiproleswithineachresearchtheme.Wewillenableandcontinually supportearlycareer researchernetworks,nominateearlycareerresearchersforkeynotes,awardsandtoleadresearchtopicsasappropriate and we will pay special attention to ensure that attendanceand leadershipofourmeetingsandworkshopswill beasbalancedaspossibleintermsofage,genderandgeographicregion.

• AWCRPSummerSchoolonclimateextremeswasheldinJuly2014totrainthe next generation of leaders in this field, enhancing capacity. Theresearch problems that were tackled by the students during the summer

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schoolhaveresultedinsevenstudent-leadpapers,whichwereproducedfora special issue of the journal “Weather and Climate Extremes”(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/22120947/9). Follow-upactivitieswillbeplannedtoensurecontinuedsupportforyoungscientists.

• Workshop(Banff, June2016):Aworkshopon“uncertaintymodelingintheanalysisofweather,climateandhydrologicalextremes”hasbeenfundedbythe Banff International Research Station (BIRS). This workshop will bringtogetherover50researchersfromatmosphericandhydrologicalsciencesontheonehand,andstatisticsandprobabilityontheotherwithastrongfocuson multivariate extreme value theory and its application in the context ofclimateandhydrologicalextremes(cross-cuttingactivity).

• The 13th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology (Canmore, June2016): This meeting features multiple sessions on climate extremesorganized by co-chairs and co-leads of the GC. This includes a dedicatedWCRPGConextremessessionasanoutreachevent,a sessionondetectionand attribution, a session on extreme value modelling, a session on eventattribution.

SpecificExtremesGrandChallengeandHIWeathercross-cuts

TheHighImpactWeatherproject(HIWeather) isaten-yearactivitywithintheWorldWeatherResearchProgrammeto:

“Promote cooperative international research to achieve adramatic increase inresiliencetohighimpactweather,worldwide,throughimprovingforecastsfortimescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication andutilityinsocial,economicandenvironmentalapplications.”

Seehttp://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/HIW_IP_v1_4.pdf

WewillworkcloselywithHIWeathertoensureanend-to-endimprovementandtransformationinourunderstandingofobservations,processes,simulationandprediction of extreme weather and climate events. Specifically the ExtremesGrandChallengecoreeventsalignwellwiththeirselectedsetofhazards:Urbanflood (Heavy precipitation), Wildfire (Droughts and heatwaves), LocalisedExtremeWind(Storm),Urbanheatwavesandairpollution(Heatwaves)andtwo

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of their research themes: Predictability and Processes (Understand andAttribute),Multi-ScaleForecastingofWeather-relatedHazards (DocumentandSimulate).

Thiswillbedonethroughcontinuedcommunication(includingteleconferences)andthroughcross-cuttingworkshops(seebelow).

AlsoajointExtremesGrandChallenge/HIWeathersymposiumwillbeproposedfor the IAMAS-IAPSO-IAGA meeting in Cape Town in 2017, which willparticularly encourage input from researchers whose work/activities cutsacrossbothprojects.

Cross-cuttingworkshopsandconferences

• Cross-cutting workshops: one on drought (led by GDIS) and one on high-impactweather(includingstorms)andseasonal-to-subseasonalpredictionofextremes organized in conjunction with WWRP and HIWeather will cutacross the four research themes. We also recommend specific workshopstargeting each of the other two core events: Heavy precipitation andHeatwaves.Inadditionaworkshopon“uncertaintymodellingintheanalysisof weather, climate and hydrological extremes” will bring togetheratmospheric scientists, hydrologists and statisticians tomake better use ofstatisticsinextremesapplications.

• TheM-ClIXworkshopwill cut across the Understand and Simulate themes(seethosesectionsabove)andincludedparticipationfrompeopleinvolvedinHIWeatherandtheWaterAvailabilityGrandChallenge.

• We recommend a workshop/meeting of relevant people in the CMIP6 andCORDEXcommunitytodiscussusefulwaystocoordinateactivitiesrelatedtothe analysis of extremes in regional and global model simulations (e.g.,indices choices,model evaluation, relevanceof large-scaledynamics for therepresentationofextremesinregionalclimatesimulationsetc).

• We are building links with Future Earth, for instance, by engaging in theFuture Earth E3S (Extreme Events and Environments - from climate tosociety) workshop. This cross-community/co-design workshop is aimed toidentify and elaborate the scientific questions and associated researchagendas, which are scientifically challenging and at the same time highlysocietally relevant. We contribute with a dedicated session on impact-relevant climate extremes metrics and active participation in a session on

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integrating thepotential of societal data, citizen science, Earthobservation,andnoveldataanalyticapproachesindetectingandunderstandingextremeevents.

• We propose a cross-cutting theme on ‘compound events’ which includehazardssuchasfloods,wildfires,heatwavesanddroughtswhichoftenresultfromacombinationofinteractingphysicalprocessesthattakeplaceacrossawide range of spatial and temporal scales. This would likely lead to aworkshopmid-2017.

• Capacity building and data gathering workshops such as thosecoordinated by the ETCCDI are ongoing and need to be continued. Inadditionwewillprovidecontinuedsupportandcoordinationtodatarescueactivities.

Disseminationactivities

• Where appropriate we will organize symposia at large internationalconferences such as AGU, EGU, IAMAS and IUGG. A joint symposium hasalready been held at IUGG 2015 in Prague on high-impact weather andclimateeventsandanotherisproposedattheIAMAS-IAPSO-IAGAconferenceinCapeTownin2017.

• TheGrandChallengeleadershipteamwilldevelopdisseminationpapersthatexplain the approach taken by the Extremes GC to the wider scientificcommunity.Wewill targethigh-impactpublications,e.g.NatureGeoScience.AplanningworkshoptowritesuchapaperwasheldinBoulderinFeb2016.

• A follow-up publication (e.g. in Bulletin of the American MeteorologicalSociety)istentativelyplannedattheendoftheGClifetime(endof2017)todiscussprogressandfurtheractionneeds.

• TheGrandChallengeleadershipteamwillcontributetorelevantworkshopsandconferencesandwillgivekeynote,overviewtalkswhereappropriate.

• Contribute to theWCRP-wide open science conference on climate byorganizing sessions on extremes in 2018. This will review ourachievementswithintheGrandChallengeandprovidevaluableinputintothenextIPCCAssessment.

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Afurther importantstep is to identifyfundingopportunities forresearchonextremes, and to provide guidance to funding agencies for addressing theseresearchneeds.AvenuesforfundingtofollowuparetheBelmontForum,theEUandanyfundingthatwouldhelpfosterresearchinthisareaonothercontinentswillbeinvestigated.

Inthe implementationplan,aconsciouseffortwasmadetodefineactivitiessoas to address interfaces between the recommended four research themes andfour core events in addition to theme-specific topics. This would aim tocoordinateworkonmarineandatmosphericheatwaves, for example,muchofwhichiscurrentlybeingcarriedoutinanadhocmanner.Aboveallweaimtotryand coordinate existing activities to the extent that they best optimize theadvancementsthatwillbeanoutcomeofthisGrandChallenge.

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TimelineofnewWCRPExtremescoordinatedactivities2014-2017

Date Activity Title Location Coordinator(s)

Expectedoutcomes

July2014 Summerschool

AttributionandPredictionofExtremesEvents

Trieste,Italy

SoniaSeneviratne,FrancisZwiers

SpecialIssueWeatherandClimateExtremes

Sep2014 Workshop LessonslearntforClimateChangeResearchandWCRP

Bern,Switzerland

XuebinZhang,GabiHegerl

Breakoutgroupsummary

Feb2015 Dataworkshop

DatarequirementstoaddresstheWCRPGrandChallengeonWeatherandClimateExtremes:ObservationsandModels

Sydney,Australia

LisaAlexander,XuebinZhang,GabiHegerl,SoniaSeneviratne,AliBehrangi

Datainventory.

BestPracticedocumentationforgriddingdata.

Dataintercomparison

Oct2015 Processunderstandingandmodelevaluationworkshop

Advancingourunderstandingandmodellingofclimateextremesbycombiningphysicalinsightswithstatisticalmethodology

Oslo,Norway

JanaSillmann,GabiHegerl,SoniaSeneviratne,XuebinZhang

Storylinesandsetofmetricsdeveloped.BAMS-typepaperoutliningchallengesandpossiblesolutions

Oct2015 LandMIP(landmodelling)workshop

CoordinationofCMIP6-relatedlandmodellingactivities,includingfocusonrepresentationandanalysisofextremes-relatedprocesses

Zurich,Switzerland

SoniaSeneviratne,BartvandenHurk,GerhardKrinner

Experimentalplan,detailsofoutputvariables

Early2016 Writingworkshop

Outlineforoverview(possiblyNatureGeoscience)paper(interestexpressedfromchiefeditor)

Boulder,USA

co-ChairsandThemeco-leads

OverviewarticleintroducingthegrandchallengetothebroaderpublicTBA

Apr2016 Blockingworkshop

Understandingofprocessesleadingtoblocking,includingfeedbacks,simulationofblockinginmodels

Reading,UK GiacomoMasato,OliviaMartius,TomWoolings

TBA

Jun2016 Workshop Uncertaintymodellingintheanalysisofweather,climateandhydrologicalextremes

Banff,Canada

FrancisZwiers,PhilippeNaveau,PeterGuttorp

Funded.Invitingattendees.

Jun2016 Eventattributionworkshop

FramingEventAttributionQuestions

Banff,Canada

XuebinZhang,FriederikeOttoandothers

Postworkshopreport

Late2016/early2017

Workshop Processunderstanding,firstanalysesofExtreMExexperiments

Paris,France

RobertVautard,OliviaMartius,SoniaSeneviratne

FirstanalysesofExtreMExexperiments.Planningofcoordinatedarticles.

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Date Activity Title Location Coordinator(s) Expectedoutcomes

Early2017 Compoundevents/multivariateextremesworkshop

Addressingthechallengeofcompoundevents(invitation-only)

TBA-Europe

SethWestra DocumentedstrategyforaddressingcompoundeventsaspartoftheGrandChallenge

Late2017 Processunderstandingandmodelevaluationworkshopfollow-up

Advancingourunderstandingandmodellingofclimateextremesbycombiningphysicalinsightswithstatisticalmethodology:Update

TBA JanaSillmann;GabiHegerl

UpdatetoOslo2015workshop

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Timelineofrelevantco-sponsoredWCRPExtremesactivitiescoordinated2014-2017


Dec2014 Droughtworkshop AnInternationalGlobalDroughtInformationSystemWorkshop:NextSteps

Pasadena,USA SiegfriedSchubert

GDIS

Jun2015 IUGG2015 IAMASSymposiumonUnderstandingandPredictingHigh-impactWeatherandClimateExtremes

Prague,Czechrepublic

RichardSwinbank,XuebinZhang,RichardGrotjahn,LisaAlexander,JuliaKeller

Jul2015 2015UnitedNationsClimateChangeConference

Sessionsonextremeeventsresearchandclimateservices

Paris,France Session1:RobertVautard,PeterStott,FriederikeOtto;

Session2:JanaSillmann

Aug2015 SummerSchool Extremeeventsandclimate

Ticino,Switzerland RetoKnutti,SoniaSeneviratne

Sep2015 ETCCDIsoftware(RClimDEX)updated

SoftwareupdatedtoincorporatenewrelevantindicesdiscussedatETCCDImeetinginParis,July2015

N/A XuebinZhang,LukasGudmundsson

Nov2015 Autumnschoolonextremes.ImprovedinputtoGCbystatisticsandnonlineardynamicscommunity.Scheduled,funded.

Statisticalandmathematicaltoolsforthestudyofextremes

https://mastacc.lsce.ipsl.fr/

Cargese,Italy PascalYiou,co-organizedbyHegerl

Feb2016 E3S(ExtremeEventsandEnvironments)conference

http://www.futureearth.org/extreme-events-and-environments-climate-society-e3s

Berlin,Germany MarkusReichsteinMPI;sessiononimpact-relevantclimateextremesmetricsbyJ.Sillmann;SteeringcommitteediscussiononfuturelinksbetweenWCRPGCandE3S

Apr2016 Atmosphericblockingworkshop

http://www.sparc-climate.org/meetings/Workshop_on_Atmospheric_Blocking_Reading_April2016

UniversityofReading,UK

SSCmembers:OliviaMartius,JanaSillmannandSoniaSeneviratne

Jun2016 IMSCconference The13thInternationalMeetingonStatisticalClimatology(IMSC)

Canmore,Canada FrancisZwiers

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Jun2016 Datarescueworkshop

Providingagrandvisionforfinding,storingandaccessinghistoricalclimatedata

Maynooth,Ireland RobAllan,LisaAlexander,PhilipBrohan,PeterThorne

Jul2016 WorkshopAttributionofchangesinextremeevents

RMetS/NCASconference2016

Manchester,UK GabrieleHegerl,PeterStott,SimonTett.

Dec2016 WWRPS2S-Seasonal-to-subseasonalpredictionofextremes

Seasonal-to-subseasonalpredictionofextremes

NewYork,USA AdamSobel,WWRP

2017 JointExtremesGrandChallenge/HIWeathersymposiumatIAMAS-IAPSO-IAGAconference

High-impactweatherandclimateextremes

CapeTown,SouthAfrica

RichardSwinbank,XuebinZhang,RichardGrotjahn,LisaAlexander,JuliaKeller+otherHIWeatherreps

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Timeline 2014 2015 2016 2017

Dataissuesworkshop

Reviewofextremesindices&softwaredevelopment

Bestpracticeguidancedocuments–datasetsandgridding

Datarepository&datasetintercomparison

PlanCMIP6landexperiments

EUCLEIAmeetingsandMCliXworkshopsession

LandMIPworkshop

Blockingworkshop

Coordinatedexperimentsandsoftware

Synthesisworkshop

IDAG/EUCLEIAmeetings

MCliXworkshop

Guidancepaperonevaluation

NCASPostdoc/evaluation

Summerschool&specialissue

Workshoponhydrologicalextremes

Reviewpaperonattributionmethodology


Document

Understand

Simulate

Attribute

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Framingworkshop

WhitePaper

ImplementationPlan

WCRP-ICTPsummerschoolandspecialissuepublication

GDISworkshop


Heatwavesworkshops&publications

M-CliXworkshop

NatureGeosciencepaper

Sesaonal-to-subseasonalpredictionofextremes(WWRP-led)

Compoundevents

OpenScienceConferenceplanning

PublicationswithExtremesGrandChallengeacknowledgementswillbeaddedtothewebsitethroughtime.Werecommendanacknowledgementworded“ThisworkcontributestotheWCRPGrandChallengeonExtremes.

Cross-cuts

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ACRONYMS

ACRE–AtmosphericCirculationReconstructionsovertheEarth

CFHP–ClimateHubsFellowsProgram

CliC–ClimateandCryospherecoreprojectoftheWorldClimateResearchProgramme

CLIVAR-coreprojectoftheWorldClimateResearchProgramme

CMIP–CoupledModelIntercomparisonProject

CORDEX-CoordinatedRegionalClimateDownscalingExperiment)

ETCCDI–ExpertTeamonClimateChangeDetectionandIndices

ET-SCI–ExpertTeamonSector-specificClimateIndices

EUCLEIA-EUropeanCLimateandweatherEvents:InterpretationandAttribution

ExtreMEx–ExtremeModelingExperiment

GCOS–GlobalClimateObservingSystem

GDAP–GEWEXDataandAssessmentsPanel

GDIS–GlobalDroughtInformationSystem

GEWEX-coreprojectoftheWorldClimateResearchProgramme

GHP–GEWEXHydroclimatePanel

GLACE–GlobalLand-AtmosphereCouplingExperiment

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GPCC–GlobalPrecipitationClimatologyCentre

HIWeather-HighImpactWeatherprojectwithintheWorldWeatherResearchProgramme

IAMAS–InternationalAssociationofMeteorologyandAtmosphericScience

IAPSO–InternationalAssociationforthePhysicalSciencesoftheOcean

IDAG–TheInternationaladhocDetectionandAttributionGroup

ISTI–InternationalSurfaceTemperatureInitiative

IUGG–InternationalUnionofGeodesyandGeophysics

SPARC-coreprojectoftheWorldClimateResearchProgramme

TT-TCI–TaskTeamonTailoredClimateInformation

WCRP–WorldClimateResearchProgramme

WGRC–WorkingGrouponRegionalClimate

WGSIP–WorkingGrouponSeasonaltoInterannualPrediction

WMO–WorldMeteorologicalOrganisation

WWRP–WorldWeatherResearchProgramme

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