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FROM THE WCRP CLIMATE SYMPOSIUM 2014 TO THE GCOS CONFERENCE VIA THE COP 21

Alain RatierDirector-General

1 GCOS – Global Climate Observation – The Road to the Future – Amsterdam 2 – 4 March EUM/SIR/VWG/16/847726

Some GCOS-relevant outcome of COP-21

Adaptation (Article 7(c)):

Strengthening scientific knowledge on climateStrengthening scientific knowledge on climate,

including research systematic observation of theincluding research, systematic observation of the

climate system and early warning systems in aclimate system and early warning systems, in a

manner that informs climate services and a e t at o s c ate se ces a d

supports decision-making


pp g

This is consistent with the GFCS

Enable better management of adaptation to climate change through the development and incorporation of science-based climate information into planning, policy and practice


Research and science are key drivers

• Research: “strengthening scientific knowledge”• Research feeds IPCC assessment reportsp• Climate Research has requirements of its own• WCRP and its observation panels play a key role• WCRP and its observation panels play a key role

A robust science base is needed for all GFCS pillars• A robust science base is needed for all GFCS pillars• This is true for “Observations and monitoring”• Science of observation and extraction of Climate

Data Records shall not be underestimated


Research requirements: Climate Symposium 2014

WCRP “Grand Science Challenges” :

- Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity

- The Changing Water Cycle- Cryosphere in a Warming World- Cryosphere in a Warming World- Ocean Circulation and Regional

Sea Level Rise- Prediction and Attribution of

Extremes: from Climate to Weather

- Regional Climate Variability and Change: Enabling Climate Services


Services

Climate Symposium 2014: GCOS-relevant Outcomes (1/2)

• The thermodynamic aspects of the Grand Challenges aregenerally better understood than the dynamic aspects:circulation is a common uncertainty across several Grandcirculation is a common uncertainty across several GrandChallenges

• The potential of the combination of operationalprogrammes and research missions is unique:

- The continuation of the high precision ocean altimetrymeasurements is a top priority of several Grand ScienceChallenges

- Some research missions (e.g. GRACE, Active atmospheric

6 GCOS – Global Climate Observation – The Road to the Future – Amsterdam 2 – 4 March EUM/SIR/VWG/16/847726 6

sounding, GPM…) need to be continued beyond one singlesatellite

Jason-CS/Sentinel-6 mission is now approved(and Jason-3 was launched on 17 January !)

Source CNES/LEGOS/CLS 2014


.... But continuation of precipitation measurements from space is of concern

Climate Symposium 2014: GCOS-relevant Outcomes (2/2)

• Links between Grand Science Challenges and their needs/priorities for space-based observations and Climate DataR d h ld b f th d l dRecords should be further developed

• This recommendation is addressed to GCOS• This recommendation is addressed to GCOS

• The broad range of needs and priorities formulated by theresearch community for space-based observations canonly be fulfilled through international cooperation

• This one is addressed to CGMES and CEOS agencies


• This one is addressed to CGMES and CEOS agencies

The Architecture for Climate Monitoring from Space


Implementation coordinated by Joint CEOS – CGMS Working Group on Climate (JWG Climate)

The Architecture and the GFCS


Sensing climate


JWG Climate: more than sensing

• Provide visibility on Climate Data Records availableProvide visibility on Climate Data Records available from CEOS & CGMS missions or their combination

• Create the conditions for delivering further Climate Data Records to fulfill GCOS requirementsData Records to fulfill GCOS requirements

• Optimize the planning of future missions andOptimize the planning of future missions and constellations to expand Climate Data Records and close gaps with respect to GCOS requirements


close gaps with respect to GCOS requirements

Re-calibration of historical dataNeed for recalibration of historical Meteosat image data

HIRS/2AIRS

Availability of instruments in polar orbit for inter-satellite calibration


1980 2002 2006

IASI

Reprocessing physical data with better algorithms

Standard deviation (in %) of operational and reprocessed bending angles from GRAS compared to ECMWF operational forecasts


Standard deviation (in %) of operational and reprocessed bending angles from GRAS compared to ECMWF operational forecasts, showing improved quality of reprocessed data at all vertical levels

Reprocessing of geophysical products (ECV)

Excellent AMVs (80<QI<100)Number of reprocessed products extracted from Meteosat imaging with a quality index > 80% in the period 2005-2013


Number of reprocessed AMVs Number of operationally produced AMVs

Thematic Climate Data Records of ECVs

16GCOS – Global Climate Observation – The Road to the Future – Amsterdam 2 – 4 March EUM/SIR/VWG/16/847726

Inputs to Global Reanalysis


Planning & gap analysis: the JWGC inventory


The elephant in the room: uncertainties

D i i ki i i ti f t i ti• Decision making requires appreciation of uncertainties• Research is needed to narrow down uncertainties• Science and reference data are needed to document and

trace uncertainties in observations and climate records

• Traceability of uncertainties in observations• Metrology• Metrology• Cross-calibration/validation against reference observations• Evaluation of limitations of processing algorithms

• Mature Climate Records include information on


Mature Climate Records include information on uncertainties

Maturity of Climate Data records


GENERALISATION COULD BE A GCOS REQUIREMENT

Reference missions/observation data sets

• Examples: observations from space• Hyperspectral infrared sounding (IASI/AIRS/CrIS)• Hyperspectral infrared sounding (IASI/AIRS/CrIS)• High precision ocean altimetry (Jason class)• Dual-view infrared imagery (ATSR/SLSTR) • CLAREO• Etc...

• Other reference datasets critical, also for space21 GCOS – Global Climate Observation – The Road to the Future – Amsterdam 2 – 4 March EUM/SIR/VWG/16/847726

space

GCOS is a key instrument within the GFCS


Conclusion

• Unique role of GCOS in GFCS

S i ill d t th GCOS• Space agencies will respond to the GCOS Implementation Plan through the Architecture

• GCOS can add value about uncertainties, through:

• Tracing GCOS requirements to WCRP Grand Science Challenges

• Supporting the identification of reference observation data sets


1010 ratier the way from wcrp climate symposium … ratier the way from wcrp... · climate...

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