world climate past and present-jlb
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World ClimateRecent Past and Present
Kanook Oct, 2009
Records available show that from the end of the Optimum Period1 of
sustained warmth until around 800-900 AD the climate of the world,
particularly in Europe varied between periods of warmth and cold. This
evidence, found on the height of the upper tree lines (where it shows that
trees grew to a higher altitude) following the perk warm period around 5000
BC, show a steady decline lasting up into the 20th century. Tree ring data for
New Zealand, for example, indicate that after temperatures reached a
maximum around 6000 to 8000 BC, the climate of New Zealand cooled.
Beginning around 1000 BC the climate of Europe and the Mediterranean
cooled dramatically and by 500 BC had reached todays temperatures,
whereas from 500 BC to 600 AD2 it experienced periods of varied warmth,
although much cooler on average than the previous 4,500 years with the over
climate becoming somewhat more stable from 100 BC to 400 AD, the period of
the rise of the Roman Empire.
During this period the Italians had vineyards and olive trees farther north
than before, classical Greece flourished and then declined; the Roman Empire
spread its authority through much of what is now Europe, the Middle East, and
North Africa only to be overrun by the hordes from Central Asia as their wealth
increased and they looked eastward to expand into other territories. Whether
or not climate change drove them east is still up to debate.
Evidence points to the migration of people from the northern latitudes duringthe cooling period, along with the Greeks adopting warmer clothes after 1300
BC3 and the population base in the Alps decreased. As the cooler weather
prevailed Greece and Turkey experience prolonged periods of drought
between 1200 to 750 BC, brought on by the cooling weather patterns
decreasing the evaporation of the seas, hence much less rainfall.
The drop in temperature is also supported by the evidence found that the
harbors of Naples and other ports in the Adriatic being three feet below the
current water levels, this backed by the lowering of water levels on the North
African coast and around the Aegean, the Crimea, and the eastern
Mediterranean in the Levant. Lower water levels indicate a colder climate
leading to the buildup of snow and ice at the poles and in major mountain
glaciers, but, by 400 AD temperatures has warmed enough to raise water
levels to at least three feet above current levels. A good example of this is
11 Holocene Climate Optimum was a warm period during roughly the interval 9,000 to 5,000years B.P.2Medieval Warm Period was a time of warm weather around AD 800-13003 Beginning around 1850, the climate began warming and the Little Ice Age ended
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some ancient harbors in Rome and Ravenna now sit about 1 kilometer from
the sea, there is also world evidence of the peak ocean heights found in Brazil,
Ceylon, Crete, England, and the Netherlands, indicating a worldwide warming
period.
Near the end of the Roman Empire, around 300 AD, the climate began to
warm and the conditions in Central Asia improved apparently leading to apopulation explosion, and the people needed room to expand and a way to
survive, consequently when a civilization wants to expand for whatever reason
they search out new lands and cultures to expand into, the Mongolians took it
upon themselves to move south and west invading China and parts of Europe.
During the 2nd Optimum Period, the homeland of the Khazars4 centered
around the Caspian Sea experienced heavy rainfall as compared to their
earlier history which increased prosperity in the region producing a high
increase in young men, men that provided the manpower for Genghis Khan to
invade China and India and to terrorize Russia and the Middle East,
After 500 AD until around 800 AD, Europe went through a colder, wetter, and
increased stormy weather and as the moisture increased peat bogs formed in
northern areas, and the people abandoned many lakeside dwellings while
mountain passes once again became choked with ice and snow, closing down,
or making more difficult to use, the transportation routes between Northern
Europe and points south. Parts of the Mediterranean and Northern Africa dried
up, although they remained much wetter than they are today.
Medically the people of England through the 7 th and the 9th centuries were
often crippled with arthritis, whereas during the previous warmer Bronze Age5
the incidence of arthritis was almost non-existent. During the centuries after
the Fall of the Roman Empire, the Greeks suffered with a diminished
economy and were overwhelmed with sickness aggravated by cold, dampconditions; on top of this the Black Death roamed the land between 744 AD
and 747 AD taking overwhelming victims during its leisurely stroll across the
countryside. In the aftermath, during the 9th and 10th centuries when the
Byzantine Emperors hauled the Greek settlers back from Asia Minor back to
the sea, for the 1st time Greek commerce and its prosperity returned as the
climate improved.
From 800 900 AD, the Vikings raided with furry outside their borders of
Scandinavia, there are three theories on what they left their shores and using
their superior naval technologies expanded their realm as far west as the
Americas and south into Africa. One theory is that they had outgrown theiragricultural potential, a theory that doesnt quite hold up in that if this was the
case why not move east into the large tracks of land, the 2 nd theory was they
were well aware of the internal divisions in the surrounding regions, for
4 The Khazars were a semi-nomadic Turkic people who dominated the Pontic steppe and theNorth Caucasus from the 7th to the 10th century CE. The name 'Khazar' seems to be tied to aTurkic verb form meaning "wandering"5Bronze Age(33001200 BC)
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example the Danish Vikings of the divisions in Charlemagnes Empire, and lack
of organized naval opposition allowed them to range throughout many towns
and navigable rivers traveling freely and raiding or trading at will. Lack of
legitimate trade after the Fall of the Roman Empire and the expansion ofIslam
in the 7th century had affected the profitability of their old trade routes.
Whatever their reason, they accomplished their expansion in some prettymoderate weather, at one time setting up camp in Greenland where the
farming was great and the game plentiful they named the island,
Greenland later travelers name Iceland.
From around 800 AD to 1300 AD the world warmed considerably and
civilization prospered. The period is labeled the Little Climate Optimum /
Medieval Warmth and in general mimics the first Climate Optimum where
virtually all of Northern Europe, Britain, Ireland, Greenland and Iceland were
considerably warmer than at present. The Mediterranean, the Near East, the
Arabian peninsula and North Africa including the Sahara experienced more
rainfall than today, and even North America enjoyed much better weather
from Western Europe to China, East Asia, India and the Americas, mankind
flourished as never before.
Although the European continent received more rainfall, the western United
States, especially in eastern California and the western Great Basin6
experience prolonged droughts and Alaska experience three time intervals of
comparable warmth, (1-300 AD), (850 to 1200 AD) and post 1800 AD). Tree
rings from the upper tree lines in Europe, and from several sea levels indicate
a more benign, warmer climate with
more rainfall; and because of
evaporation, less standing water.
Not only did Northern Europe enjoymore rainfall the Mediterranean
climate was much wetter, whereas
an early 12th century bridge that still
exists over the river Oreto at
Palermo exceeds the needs of the
small trickle of water that flows
beneath it today. In addition, two
Arab geographers note that two rivers in Sicily that are two small for boats
today were navigable during this period and in England medieval water mills
on streams today do not carry enough water to turn the wheels. Rain; therewas plenty during the Little Climate Optimum.
Even though England received more rainfall
the warm weather causing evaporation left the
land dry and workable, as average
temperatures rose across Europe people
6 roughly between the Wasatch Mountains and theSierra Nevada mountains.
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established settlements at higher altitudes with some as high as 1300 feet
after 1100 AD. The wet warm weather was a boon to civilization, and it had
higher temperatures than today with wet but mild winters.
The Little Climate Optimum did not affect the world equally, where the
Caspian Sea7 was over 13 feet lower from the 9th century through the 11th
century than currently. After 1200 AD the elevation of the sea rosedramatically for the next 200 to 300 years. In the Asian steppes, warm periods
with fine summers and with little snow in the winters resulted in water levels
that were low by modern standards and the southern tip of South America was
dryer than usual. China, according to limited data had somewhat warmer
climate in the 9th, 10th, and 11th centuries and very cold climate in the 12th and
13th a Chinese scholar, Chu Ko-chen reported that the 8 th and 9th centuries
were warmer and receive more rainfall, but the climate deteriorate
significantly in the 12th century. He found records, however, that show the first
half of the 13th century was very moderate; with very cold weather returning in
the 14th century, the records also showed the major floods and droughts, but
that they suffered little of such during the 9th and 11th centuries, with an
increase in the calamities during the 14th through the 17th centuries.
Japan too had warmer than usual weather in the 11th century, with the 12th
century experiencing later springs, and the 14th suffered the return of cold
weather.
Population Explosion
The Little Climate Optimum coincided with an upsurge of population almost
everywhere, but as there are a few records dealing with only Europe, the
validity of the statement cannot be verified, what is known as that during the
cold and damp Dark Ages8 the population of Europe had been relativelystagnant. Towns/villages shrank to a few houses clustered behind walls, the
occupants were spent their time in dank hovels, avoiding inclement weather
conditions that were ripe for the spread of disease such as Tuberculosis,
Malaria, Influenza and Pneumonia that brought about the death of the children
and the elderly, those over 30.
Albeit historians have failed to agree on why after the 11th century soared, it
might be better to ask why the population remained so stagnant previous to
the change of climate warmer and dryer weather. John Keegan in 1993
wrote, The mysterious revival of trade between 1100 and 1300, itself perhaps
due to an equally mysterious rise in the European population from about 40million to about 60 million, in turn revived the life of towns, which through the
growth of a money economy won funds to protect themselves from dangers
beyond their walls.
7 Like theBlack Sea, the Caspian Sea is a remnant of the ancient Paratethys Sea. The CaspianSea became landlocked about 5.5 million years ago due to tectonic uplift and a fall in sea level.8 It lasted from about AD 500 to 1000.
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Common sense, in most, would show most that a warmer, dryer climate from
cold and wet, albeit with more rainfall but more evaporation reduced bogs and
marshy areas permitting the reclamation of land for farming and the
population expansion. It is noted that previous to the advent of the warmer
climate the German settlers living on the east side of the Elbe frequently
ended the name of their towns with mar, meaning marsh, and after thewarming trend dropped the suffix. Some say the term went out of style, while
others say the marshes had dried up!
Let us face it, the climate had changed and life became enjoyable again and
civilization blossomed, life was good! Charles Van Doren in 1991 wrote, the
three centuries from 1000 to 1300, became one of the most optimistic,
prosperous, and progressive periods of European history.
There was plenty of work, one example being the construction of
Westminister Abbey employed conservatively 428 men, made up of 53
stonecutters, 49 monumental masons, 28 carpenters, 14 glassmakers, 4
roofers, and 220 simple labors whereas nearly half of the workers were
skilled specialists life was good!
During the 12th and 13th century technology exploded, where new techniques
expanded the use of the water mill, the windmill, and coal for energy and heat.
Sailing was improved through the invention of the lateen sail, the sternpost
rudder, and the compass. Governments constructed roads and contractors
developed new methods for stone work, new iron-casting techniques allowed
for better tools and weapons. The textile industry started using wool, linen,
cotton, and silk and in the 13th century developed the spinning wheel. Soap
came into common use in the 12 th century and mining which had declined
since the fall of the Roman Empire, mostly due to the snow and cold making
access to the mountains a bit harder, revived after the 10th century.The great indicator, even today, is a regions area ability to plant and harvest
grapes. Whereas good wine demand warm springs free of frost, substantial
summer warmth and sunshine without too much rain, and above all sunny
days in the fall. And to maintain the vine, winters cannot be too cold with only
an occasional dip below freezing.
During the Little Climate Optimum temperatures were sufficiently higher than
today allowing for the planting and harvesting of grapes some 300 miles north
above the commercial wine areas in France and Germany the wine
production was not simply a marginal wine, but of sufficient quality and
quantity that, after the Norman conquest, the French monarchy tried toprohibit British wine production calculations by scholars today estimate that
the overall temperature, based on the available records of the wine
production, shows that the average temperature was 0.9F to 3.4F higher
than today. Not only did the British produce quality wines during the Little
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Climate Optimum, vineyards prospered in East Prussia, Tilsit9, and southern
Norway.
Mini Ice Age
Bingo, the worlds weather did a flip-flop, albeit there in no agreed beginning
of the Little Ice Age, we know that at the beginning of the 13th
century pack icemoved southward into the North Atlantic, as did the glaciers in Greenland.
Beginning in 1315 three years of torrential rains ushered in an era of
unpredictable weather in Northern Europe, which did not began to stabilize
until the 19th century. Glaciers worldwide expanded, with evidence pointing to
no great variation in the pattern from 1600 to 1850, after which their retreat is
marked.
Although the Little Ice Age is even less well defined than the Little Climate
Optimum, it is agreed upon the Europe, North America, New Zealand, and in
Greenland temperatures fell, albeit with many ups and downs, but basically
staying chilly after 1300 to 1850 AD, when they began to rebound. The
extreme cold period for the world occurred between 1550 and 1700, once
interpretation of the available data is that the world had began cooling around
4500 BC with the noted temporary upswing of temperatures during the Little
Climate Optimum.
Europe and Asia cooled substantially from 1300 to 1850, especially after
1400, with average temperatures falling 2 to 4F below the 20 th century, and
further indications show that the temperature fell as much as 9F in the 200
years from 1200 to 1400.
The frigid change in temperature across the world brought hardships along
with a decline in world population, while famine and disease stalked once
again across Europe and Asia. Oxygen isotopes from oak trees in Germanydocument a steady decline in average temperatures from 1350 to 1800 with
the exception of a few small upsurges and one strong temperature spike in the
1st half of the 18th century.
What caused the Little Ice Age? Scientists today have tentatively
indentified four possible causes, decreased solar activity leads the list, along
with increased volcanic activity, ocean conveyor shutdown, and a decrease in
agriculture activity.
Solar activity (or) lack of seems to be the heavy favorite whereas during the
period of 1645 - 1715, in the middle of the Little Ice Age, there was a period of
low solar activity known as the Maunder Minimum10
. Although even today
9Sovetsk(Russian: ), which was known by its Germanname ofTilsit (Lithuanian:Til;Polish: Tyla) before 1945, is a townnow in Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia on the south bank of theNeman River.
10 The Maunder Minimum (also known as the prolonged sunspot minimum) is the nameused for the period roughly spanning 1645to 1715 byJohn A. Eddy in a landmark 1976 paperpublished in Science titled "The Maunder Minimum",[1] when sunspots became exceedinglyrare, as noted by solar observers of the time.
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evidence indicates that we have a very low understanding of the correlation
between low sunspot activity and cooling temperatures it was also indentified
that the beginning of the Little Ice Age, coincided with the Sporer Minimum11,
evidence supports these claims by the levels of the isotopes carbon-14 and
beryllium-10.
During the Little Ice Age, the planet also experienced heightened volcanicactivity. We all understand that when a volcano erupts it ejects ash high into
the atmosphere, with larger eruptions blanking the earth which drifts about in
the upper atmosphere for as long as 2-years, circling the globe numerous
times. Sulfur is a major component of eruptions, where when the gas reaches
the stratosphere it converts into sulfuric acid particles, becoming a super
reflector and reducing the incoming solar radiation. When Tambora12
erupted in April 1813 it not only killed over 71,000 souls it blanketed the
atmosphere with its ejecta, spreading around the world causing world
temperatures to plummet, the following year was known as the Year without
a Summer, where frost and snow were reported in June and July in New
England and Northern Europe.
The Thermohline Circulation might have shutdown, this is the current that
is the great ocean conveyor or Meridional overturning circulation.
The Gulf Stream could have been interrupted by the introduction of a large
amount of fresh water to the North Atlantic, there is some concern that the
Thermohaline Circulation could shutdown again as a result of Global Warming
in some circles others view this as a strong maybe.
The 4th guess is that the reduction of the population in Europe, East Asia and
the Middle East during and after the Black Death13, which killed up to 60% ofEuropes population, causing a decrease in agricultural activity. Whereas
forests multiplied and increased the CO2 flow to the atmosphere, a factor that
11 The Sprer Minimum was a 90-year span of low solar activity, from about 1460 until 155012Tambora erupted in 1815 with a rating of seven on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, making itthe largest eruption since the Lake Taupoeruption in about 180 CE.[4]13 The Black Death was one of the deadliest pandemics in human history, peaking in Europebetween 1348 and 1350.
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most disregard as a cause although a study of sediment cores and soil
samples in North America suggest the same.
Along with the dropping of the tree line across the world, the ocean level fell
below normal the result of the expanding ice fields and the polar ice cap, this
influx of cooler water weather around the globe increased in intensity causing
cold and stormy weather. This change in weather patterns caused disasters topeople everywhere, whereas even in Ethiopia the chill caused snow to fall and
stay above 10,000 feet, an event that is not witnessed today and the sub-
tropical monsoon rains decreased and receded farther south, causing droughts
in East Asia and large regions of Africa.
The expansion of the circumpolar vortex produced some of the greatest
windstorms ever
recorded in
Europe and in
some cases
changed the
course of
history, one
example being
the defeat of the
Spanish Navy, or
the Spanish
Armada in July
158814. Another
storm, a storm
that even today
is still used, asviolent weather in the British Isles compared to this storm. In the late
November of 1703 a storm struck England with such force and magnitude and
destructive damage that Daniel Defore (Robinson Crusoe author) wrote a
successful book called The Storm based on interview of the survivors. He
wrote, No pen could describe nor tongue conceive it unless by one in the
extremity of it. No storm since the Universal Deluge was like this, either in its
violence or its durationthe tempest that destroyed woods and forests all over
England.
He was right, records as well as can be found showed that 8000 to 9000 lives
were lost, some records claim as high as 15,000, most being shipboard on the500-700 vessels sunk or damaged by the gales. Over 4,000 trees were laid
flat east of Bournemouth, 400 windmills to 900 houses were destroyed and
over 100 churches lost their steeples or damages in some other way. It should
be noted that the summer of 1703 had been unusually wet across Britain and
14 Philip II of Spain learned of the result of the expedition, he declared, "I sent the Armadaagainst men, not God's winds and waves".[20] Greatly disappointed, he still forgave the Duke ofMedina Sidonia.
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the Autumn had been very warm. In mid-November a series of storms
battered the British Isles knocking down chimneys in London and sinking
several ships off the coast. As a matter of record, during one of those minor
storms a falling chimney almost took the life of Defoe. As the month drew to a
close, the biggest storm of all knocked on Merry old Englands front door.
During the waning hours of the 25th
of November15
(a Thursday) the stormslammed into the entrance of the Bristol Channel, from what little
meteorological information available, it is believed the main storm center
moved north of Scotland while a secondary low-pressure cell formed to the
southwest and moved across Britain from south Wales to the mouth of the
Humber.
Barometric measurements, read the equivalent of 973 mb in south Essex,
whereas it is suggested that at the center of the low it read as low as 950 mb
as it crossed over the Midlands. In East Anglia, wind speeds were estimated in
excess of 100 mph while in Whitstable more than one report reported a
tornado/waterspout that lifted a ship out of the water, depositing it 800 feet
inland from the shore, it also picked up a cow and spiked in high in a tree.
This horrific wind storm cut a 300-mile swath across southern England and
Wales, on the 27th it moved across the North Sea and slammed into parts of
France, northern Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Finland before finally
dissipating.
Violent weather was the rule of the day during the Little Ice Age, one
particular storm that hit the shores of Europe on Christmas Day in 1717
causing a flood across the coastal areas of the Netherlands, Germany, and
Scandinavia on Christmas night where approximately 14,000 drowned. The
aftermath found the local populations coping with population loss, economic
decline and widespread poverty, it should be noted that no coastal areabetween the Netherlands and Denmark was spared. In the affected regions
large quantities of cattle were lost, homes were washed away (in Ostfriesland
alone 900 homes were lost), the survivors remained unaware of the fate of
their missing family members for weeks, one example, of 284 people missing
from Werdum in Ostfriesland, only 32 were found alive by their relatives or
friends by Feburary 5th, 1718.
Two days after the cooler weather brought hard frosts and heavy snowfall,
and to add to their misery on the night of the 25th of February a new wind
driven storm flood hit them again.
There is no doubt of the evidence showing the contrast of the cold northerntemperatures moving south and meeting the warm sub-tropical Atlantic and
the resultant fierce jet stream the meeting produced, please keep in mind
were not talking 100s of degrees different here, records show a moderate
drop of temperature involving a drop of 2F or as much as 5F. Europe was
15 The December 7-8, 1703 Windstorm (November 26 -27 on the old calendar still used in England atthe time)
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not the only place affected by enhanced wind storms, where it is written that
Tornado activity increased across the Great Plains of America.
Arctic sea ice eventually cut off Greenland, glaciers advanced in Iceland,
Norway, Greenland, the Alps and on the western coast of the North American
continent to include Alaska. Bogs and marshes again became the word of the
day, tree lines dropped, harvests failed rising the price of food, farms wereabandoned and disease for both animals and humans spread.
Harvest deficits and hunger ran rampant 40-years before the Black Death
became an issue, where the poor were reduced to eating dogs, cats and even
children. The hard to find food output contributed greatly to the decline in
population that was only further reduced when the Black Death knocked on
the door. Evidence today reveals that many villages were abandoned before
not after the beginning of the plague and by 1327 the population of parts of
England had fallen by 67%, when the plague struck poorly nourished people
were quickly carried off by the disease. When the plague finally made its way
over the Alps after 1348 it killed at least 33% of the population in Northern
Europe, whereas life expectancy fell by 10-years in little over a century from
48-years-old in 1280 to 38-years-old in the years 1376 to 1400. Researchers
hang the start of the Black Death on China originating around 1333, this
following devastating floods there in 1332 which are reported to have caused
over 7 million deaths, and disturbing wild life and displacing the soon to be
plague carrying rats. The Black Death spread to central Asia, which, with the
increased cooling, was also drying out it was a short trip from there to
Europe.
The overall weather was getting cooler, storms were increasing, there were
abundant wet period followed by dry hot ones in general weather that
confined the population to their homes are whatever shelter they could find increasing their exposure to the carriers of the Black Death, the rats.
The end of the Little Climate Optimum had devastating effects on the
populations that lived at the edge of habitable lands, for example, the
population of Iceland after several hundred years of cool damp weather was
cut by over 50%, as crops failed and the farmers abandoned their land.
The economy brought about by the Little Climate Optimum crashed to where
in 1337 the first recorded bank failure when the great Italian bank Scali was
brought to its knees. Construction halted on churches and the great
cathedrals and the leaders of many countries searched far and wide for
scapegoats of the conditions of economic failures spreading across their land.The King of England, for example, expelled the entire Jewish population from
the country in 1290, this action followed by the French King following his
example in 1306 and once again in 1393 and in 1349 the Christians of Brabant
massacred16 local Jews, they followed this action with a complete expelling of
the Jews 21-years-later.
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The cooler weather is also said to have caused the end of the Anasazi
population in the southwest of America and brought to an end Native American
farming in the upper Midwest, and in Greece the necessity of keeping a large
military establishment to protect their lands and what little prosperity they did
have, broke the country.
Cold weather and Global Warming do they walk hand-in-hand?
Another Mini-Ice Age?
When we think of Ice Ages, most of us think of a slow transition into a colder
climate matched with extremely long time scales, whereas recent studies of
the past million years indicate a repeatable cycle of Earths climate
progressing from warm periods, called interglacial, as we experiencing today
to glacial conditions.
One theory behind these cycles is one put forth by Milutin Milankovitch in
1938 that involves the precession of the equinoxes (a 23,000 year cycle)
that changes our path to one that is either more round or less round around
our life giver the Sun.
We suppose that our next journey towards the next Ice Age will take several
millennia, so what is the big deal? In fact, wont the build-up of CO2 and other
greenhouse gases slow the process down?
Some groups even want to accelerate the process, thereby creating a much
warmer climate in Russia turning much of the cold, austere northern Russia
into a sub-tropical paradise. Albeit the Global Warming advocates yell from
the rooftops that man is a major contributor to our Global Warming and
scream for tighter controls on the goals of such documents such as the Kyoto
Protocol, which is due to be again voted on for acceptance in Nov of this year a growing group of scientists and global scholars are doubting its validity.
One of the paradoxs surrounding the Global Warming, were putting too
much CO2 into our atmosphere is that our actions or lack of them will lead to
another Little Ice Age, this caused by the shutting down warm current flowing
northward from the warmer latitudes. This shutdown by the melding ice
moving southward from the Arctic Ocean and the melding ice of Greenland,
cool freshwater slamming into the salinity water of the Gulf Stream.
Ice cores, being our best historical
records, show that in lieu of slow and
methodical transitions from hot to coldthey are revealing chaotic rapid
changes, some only decades long
when the climate swung widely about
between the two states a good
example being the event called the
Younger Dryas around 12,000 years
ago that begin and ended within a
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decade, and for its 1000 year duration the North Atlantic was approximately
5Ccolder than today.
The bottom line is that in the end the experts are telling us is that it is ocean
dynamics that will and have driven the abrupt climate changes, in particular
one major driver is the Gulf Steam, shut it down and the Northern
Hemisphere is in deep trouble.In the case of Northern Europe, the Gulf Stream in order to balance the
excess heating near the equator and cooling at the North Pole, both the
atmosphere and the Gulf Stream transport the heat from the low to high
latitudes. Warmer surface water is cooled at the high latitudes releasing heat
into the atmosphere, which is then radiated away to space. This action keeps
the Northern regions of Europe and England enjoying moderate weather, and
as this happens around the globe with similar action gives us all moderate
weather.
Warmer ocean surface temperature at low latitudes also releases water vapor
through an excess of evaporation over precipitation to the atmosphere,
whereas the vapor is transported pole-ward in the atmosphere along with
some heatnow as it moves northward and reaching the higher latitudes the
vapor falls as an excess of precipitation over evaporation. As the vapor moves
northward it increases in density, as the now cooled falling dense water sinks it
forms dense flows that spread towards the equator at great depths and the
cycle continues and the transport of warm surface water continues to warm
the northern latitudes.
Understand that the waters moving towards the pole are relatively salty due
to more evaporation at the lower latitudes, which increases surface salinity
whereas at the higher latitudes the surface waters become fresher as a direct
factor of the dominance of precipitation over evaporation at the higherlatitudes. This freshening tendency makes the surface water more buoyant,
thus opposing the cooling tendency and there you have it. If the freshening
is sufficiently large, the surface waters may not be dense enough to sink to
great depths in the ocean, thus inhibiting the action of the ocean conveyor
system and bringing to a stop the function of the earths heating network.
This system of regulation does not work the same in all oceans, where the
Asian continent limits the northern extent of the Indian Ocean to the tropics,
and deep water does not form in the North Pacific, because the surface waters
are too fresh. Present climate conditions promote cold deep water formation
around Antarctica and in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. The conveyorcirculation increases the northward transport of warmer waters in the Gulf
Stream at mid-latitudes by about 50% of what wind-driven transport alone
would do.
Evidence extracted from the analysis of the sediment cores from around the
worlds oceans have generally implicated the North Atlantic as the most
unstable member of the worldwide conveyor network, during millennial
periods of cold climate the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation
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either stopped or was greatly reduced, which is generally followed by periods
of large freshwater discharge into the northern North Atlantic caused by a
rapid melting of glacial or multi-year ice in the Arctic basis. It is believed
that these fresh waters, which have been transported into the regions of deep
water formation, have interrupted the conveyor system by overcoming the
high-latitude cooling effect with excessive freshening.The preceding is all theory; while a great number of earths scientists believe
it is all possible, all of them at one time or the other has couched these
theories with maybe!
Well you dont have to be an up and coming rocket scientist to see that
warmer is better than colder and that during the best of times, human
populations have gone up rapidly, new techniques and practices have
developed, and construction and art have flourished. Our planets history
demonstrates that the human race spent hundreds of thousands of years as
hunter gathers and when the weather warmed up a bit our ancestors
domesticated plants and animals and began to shape their environment vs.
just surviving off of it! During the Climate Optimum of 3,000 to 8,000 years
ago, people built the 1st cities establishing city states than empires, trade
flourished, writing was invented, and the human population exploded. The
warmer weather produced more rain, especially to North Africa and Arabia,
and hardwood forests spread throughout Europe and then the climate cooled
a bit around 1000 BC, interspersed with a few periods of warmth until around
600 AD where for the next 300 years it was cold and damp, not because of
rainfall but because of the lack of evaporation, progress, civilization and trade
came to a standstill.
From 900 to 1300 AD, warm, sunny weather returned and the populationexploded, trade went up and we again marched forward, colonized new
regions and their higher elevations and much further north. Norseman
occupied Iceland and Greenland and some regions of North America,
Europeans being Europeans went on a building spree reflecting a religious tone
and exploited the masses by paying them cheap wages, but it was something.
Asia also flourished during the Little Climate Optimum, building large temples,
profitable trading networks, creating art and literature and improved
agricultural tools. In North America the Anasazi Indians pueblos and other
Natives Americans developed large trading centers on the Mississippi River
and farmed now western Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota, and then it allcame to a slow but gradual end.
When the cold weather once again spread across the globe during the Little
Ice Age our civilization slowed down, the population explosion came to a halt
and we shifted backwards in our overall development and/or progress.
Famine, plague, and warfare walked across our land for the next few centuries
and even though all regions of the world were not affected to the same
degree. Some became too dry while other were too wet, and others may have
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become too warm, and others experience high-pressure systems that blocked
storms while other just the opposite occurred, in all the weather was out-of-
balance, but the benefit of warmer weather meant longer growing seasons,
more rainfall overall, and fewer and less violent storms.
So warmer is better than colder, and in this many sensible scholars have
realized that no-matter the course of our climate that the optimal solution indealing with climate change is to promote growth and prosperity, this so
people will have the resources to deal with any shift, whether towards warmer
or a colder climate.
Common Sense supported by facts and not supposition will win
the day, not a common cry that the sky is falling!