Developing scenarios for analyzing and managing trade-offsMonika ZurekClimate Focus BVAmsterdam, NL

This talk focuses on:

Scenario planning as a tool for analyzing and managing trade-off

Examples from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenario work to illustrate the use of scenario planning for exploring different trade-offs decision makers face

Trade-offs Involved in Resource Management Decisions

Source: Ayensu et al. 1999. Science 286:685-686.

Freshwater supply and demand

Food supply and demand

Forest product supply and demand

Biodiversityloss

Climatechange

Water availability

Water use and nutrient loss

Erosion andwater flow

Loss

and f

ragmen

tation

of ha

bitat

Redu

ced r

esilie

nce t

o cha

nge

Habit

at lo

ss

Habitat loss

Loss of crop genetic diversityHabitat change

Change in transpiration & albedo

N, C

H 4, N 20

em

ission

s

Hydr

ologic

CO 2 a

nd

tem

pera

ture

chan

ges

Precipitation & temperature

Land transformation

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was

An international scientific assessment completed in 2005. Conducted by ~1400 scientists from 100 countries.

Focused on the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being

Designed to meet a portion of the assessment needs of international conventions, private sector, civil society and others

Undertaken at multiple scales (local to global) Designed to both provide information and build

capacity to provide information Expected to be repeated at 5-10 year intervals if it

successfully meets needs

MA Conceptual Framework

Direct Drivers

Indirect Drivers

EcosystemServices

Human Well-being

Direct Drivers of Change Changes in land use Species introduction or

removal Technology adaptation and

use External inputs (e.g.,

irrigation) Resource consumption Climate change Natural physical and

biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)

Indirect Drivers of Change

Demographic Economic (globalization,

trade, market and policy framework)

Sociopolitical (governance and institutional framework)

Science and Technology Cultural and Religious

Human Well-being and Poverty Reduction

Basic material for a good life Health Good Social Relations Security Freedom of choice and

action

Types of Ecosystem Services Trade-offs portrayed in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios

MA 2005, Vol 3

VITAL SIGNS DECISION INDICATORS CATEGORIES

Thread Indicator Agriculture

Human well

being

Ecosystems

Services

Climate Forcing Net AFOLU Climate Forcing X

Biodiversity Biodiversity Security X

Wood Fuel Wood fuel Energy Security X X

LivestockRangeland degradation X

Forage Adequacy X X

Water Water Security X X X

Resilience Resilience or buffering index X X X

Inclusive Wealth

Sustainability index X X X

Food Security Food Security Index X X

Soil Health Soil Health Index X X

Ag. Intensification

Yield Target (%) X

Poverty Poverty X

Health Prevalence of malaria, diarrhea, anemia X

Nutrition % overweight, under weight, stunting, and wasting X

How can scenario development/ forward looking work help with analyzing and managing trade-offs

Better understand the elements and driving forces, their speed and interactions, which govern the system

Clarify the multiple objectives that stakeholders have with respect to the system’s management

Analyze and visualize trade-offs often made implicitly when deciding on a course of action

Decide on and communicate a strategy for managing the system

The scenarios approach - What are scenarios? Plausible stories about how the future might unfold from existing patterns, new factors and alternative human choices. The stories can be told in the language of both words and numbers (Raskin, in press).

Plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces (Nakicenovic 2000).

A tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decision might be played out (Schwartz 1996).

Plausible alternative futures, each an example of what might happen under particular assumptions (MA).

Boundaries•Spatial•Thematic•Temporal

Boundaries•Spatial•Thematic•TemporalKey Dimensions

•Multi-dimensional space of variables

Key Dimensions•Multi-dimensional space of variables

Current Situation•Historic context•Institutional description•Quantitative accounts

Current Situation•Historic context•Institutional description•Quantitative accounts

Driving Forces•Trends•Processes

Driving Forces•Trends•Processes

Critical Uncertainties•Resolution alters course of events

Critical Uncertainties•Resolution alters course of events

Anatomy of scenarios

Plot•Captures dynamics•Communicates effectively

Plot•Captures dynamics•Communicates effectively

Image of the Future

Image of the Future

Source: P. Raskin 2002

Steps in a scenario planning exercise

Decide on purpose of scenario and stakeholder involvement

Back casting exercise Identification of main areas of uncertainty Identification of main drivers of change Develop first set of storylines Critically assess storylines Identify important surprises Decide on modeling capacity Stakeholder feedback session & iterations Final write up

Good Scenarios should

be plausible (or ‘not implausible‘)

be internally consistent and coherent

be constructed with rigour, detail & creativity

meet the goals of scenario exercise

Source: T. Henrichs 2003

The focal questions of the MA scenarios Consequences (in 50 years) of plausible changes in

drivers and development pathways For ecosystems and their services For human well-being

Four scenarios. What happens when decision-makers 1. Emphasize global economic policy reform 2. Give primary emphasis to self-reliance, security and

the local and regional environment 3. Emphasize the development and use of technologies

allowing greater eco-efficiency and adaptive control

4. Emphasize adaptive co-management and local learning about socio-ecological systems

The MA scenarios

globalized fragmented

Environmentally reactive

Environmentally pro-active

AdaptingMosaic

Order from Strength

TechnoGarden

Global Orchestration

Modeling to quantify parts of the MA scenarios

Storylines

Economic Optimism Techno Garden, etc.

IMPACTWorld food production

IMAGE 2 Global change

WaterGAPWorld water resources

Model Inputs

Demographic Economic Technological

AIM Global change

Model Outputs

Provisioning Services - Food (meat, fish, grain production)- Fiber (timber)- Freshwater (renewable water resources & withdrawals)- Fuel wood (biofuels)

Regulating - Climate regulation (C flux) - Air quality (NOx, S emissions)

Supporting primary production

…and to make it more complicated: Ecological Feedbacks

IMPACTWorld food production

IMAGE 2 Global change

WaterGAPWorld water resources

Model Inputs

Demographic Economic Technological

AIM Global change

Number of Species

Ecosystem Function

Ecological Feedbacks

Biodiversity Models

Measures of habitat (e.g. land cover, river discharge)

Crop Land Forest Area

Changes in crop land and forest area under MA Scenarios

Some results related to agriculture

Demand for provisioning services, such as food, fiber, and water, increases across scenarios.

Food security remains out of reach for many people and child malnutrition will be difficult to eradicate even by 2050, despite increasing food supply under all four scenarios and more diversified diets in poor countries.

Ecosystem services outcome across the scenarios

Human Well-being across the scenarios

How can scenario development/ forward looking work help with analyzing AND managing trade-offs

Better understand the elements and driving forces, their speed and interactions, which govern the system

Clarify the multiple objectives that stakeholders have with respect to the system’s management

Analyze and visualize trade-offs often made implicitly when deciding on a course of action

Decide on and communicate a strategy for managing the system

Examples of trade-off decisions faced at different scales when managing agricultural systems

Farm: Fertilizer use versus water quality

Region: Intensifying production versus taking new land

into production Globe:

Managing agriculture for food production alone versus food AND environmental stewardship

Managing agriculture-environment-human wellbeing trade-offs proactively or reactively

Greenhouse gas emissions changes across the scenarios