Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

INPE-CPTEC’s effort on Coupled INPE-CPTEC’s effort on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere ModelingOcean-Atmosphere Modeling

Paulo NobrePaulo Nobre

INPE-CPTECINPE-CPTEC

Apoio:Apoio:

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

Outline

• Background development coupled O-A model at CPTEC

• Current operational version 1.0– Seasonal and extended weather examples– Skill assessments– Climate studies

• Development of version 2.0• Future plans

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

Background

• Originated from COLA coupled ocean-atmosphere model

• V. 0: COLA AGCM, RAS, SIB, T42L18, anomaly coupling to MOM_2 at 1/3 degree deep global tropics, L20.

• Version 1.0: CPTEC/COLA AGCM, RAS, SSiB, T062L28, fully coupled to MOM_3 at ¼ degree deep global tropics, L20.

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

Development of INPE’s CPTEC CGCM 2.0

• AGCM: – CPTEC.2.0 MPI, T213L64– Kuo/RAS/Grell deep cumulus convection – Shallow cumulus convection (diurnal cycle related…),– improved solar radiation algorithm– LSM: SSiB/IBIS

• OGCM: – MOM4 MPI, Global, 1/8 x 1/8 deep tropics, L50, free

sfc, fresh water flux;– Dynamical ice– Biogeochemistry

• MOM4’s FSM coupler– 3 hours coupling interval

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

MOM 4’s FMS COUPLER

Flux Ocean to Ice Sfc Boundary Layer

Update Ice Model up

Update Land Model

Flux down from Atmos

Atmos Model Run

Update Atmos Model up

Flux up to Atmos

Update Ice Model

Atmos Loop

Atmos Loop End

Avg psurf

Atmos-2-Ice

SST-2-Atmos

Update Land Model

Flux Ice to Ocean

Update Ice Model down

Flux Land to Ice

Ocean Loop

Ocean Loop EndUpdate Ocean Model

Coupled Loop

Coupled Loop

Coupler End

Coupler Init

Slo

w L

oo

pS

low

Lo

op

Fas

t F

ast

Fas

t F

ast

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

OGCM Modular Ocean Model (MOM) version 3 Global Tropics (40S – 40N) 1/4 x 1/4 degree deep tropics of the Atlantic Ocean Pacanowski and Philander vertical mixing Rigid lid approximation

CGCM: (daily, fully coupled) to CPTEC AGCM, T062L28, RAS, SSiB.

Atmos IC: NCEPOcean IC: MOM3 forced runs, no Ocean Data Assimilation10 members, 20 years of 8 month forecast runs starting at

each calendar month for both AGCM and CGCM.

Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere predictability experiment

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

OGCM Grid

High Res: 0.25º Lon Lat Tropical Atlantic

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

Coupled Ocean-Atmos GCM SuiteCoupled Ocean-Atmos GCM Suite

InitializationInitialization

IC

Coupled ForecastCoupled Forecast

AtmosFCSTs

SFCFluxes

SST

AGCM

OGCM

Tau &Heat

OGCMdaily

ICNCEPIC

NCEPIC

NCEPICs

NCEP

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at playCoupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at playDJF Precipitation Forecasts anomaly correlations

Nobre et al. (2008, in prep)

Increased Increased Coupled Coupled ModelModelForecast Forecast SkillSkill

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

Scientific Motivation: Scientific Motivation: SACZ low predictabilitySACZ low predictability

DJF MAM

Marengo et al. (2002)

CPTEC AGCM, 50 years, 10 Member Ensemble, Kuo, T062L28, Obs SSTCPTEC AGCM, 50 years, 10 Member Ensemble, Kuo, T062L28, Obs SST

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at playCoupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at playDJF Precipitation Forecasts anomaly correlations

Nobre et al. (2008, in prep)

Decreased Decreased Coupled Coupled ModelModelForecast Forecast SkillSkill

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

OI-SST / NCEP Reanalysis

OGCM Climatology

CGCM Climatology

Eastern Oceans’ Coupled O-A Interactions

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

CGCM SWRad systematic errors

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

CGCM Current operational runs at CPTEC

• CGCM – seasonal climate– T062L28, RAS– 10 Members per month– 7 months forecast

• CGCM – extended weather– T126L28, RAS, – 2 members per day– 30 days forecast

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

SLP FCST BIASOVER SE BRAZIL

CGCM

Ensemble

AVN

CPTEC126

CPTEC213

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

SLP RMSE over South America

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

Anomaly Correlation Geopot. Hight over South America

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 200426 March 2004

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

72 hours CATARINA FCSTCGCM-AGCM (T62L28) SLP

ci: 12Z24MAR2004 FCST: 12Z27MAR2004

Nobre and Malagutti, (pers. comm)

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

CGCM Niño 3.4 SST Drift

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

CTRL

Total deforest25% rainfall reduction

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

CTRL

Total Deforest40% rainfall reduction

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

CGCM 100% deforest departures

PRECIPITATION

TEMPERATURE

Nobre et al. (2008) acceptedNobre et al. (2008) accepted

Statistically significant departures are shaded

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

Pacific Thermocline DepthDeforest – Ctrl (shades)

Nobre et al. (2008) acceptedNobre et al. (2008) accepted

Statistically significant departures are shaded

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

MOM4 Atlantic Meridional Transport (Sv)

NADW

NADW

AABW

AAIW

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling

30 days avrg spinup SST

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling

30 days avrg spinup Precip

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

INPE’s Climate Forecast INPE’s Climate Forecast Coupled Suite GoalCoupled Suite Goal

Data AssimilationData Assimilation

AGCM

OGCM

AtmosOBS

T-S

IC

Coupled ForecastCoupled Forecast

AtmosFCST

daily/hourly

SFCfluxes

SST

OGCM

AGCM

6 hourly

RegionalModel

hourly

HydrologyModel

CropModel

HealthModel

WaveModel