seasonal climate predictions at cptec-inpe
DESCRIPTION
Seasonal Climate Predictions at CPTEC-INPE. Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE. Current operational runs. AGCM KUO, RAS, GRELL, DERF FCST SSTA, PRESCRIBED SSTA 15 Members each: 120 total 4 months forecast CGCM – seasonal climate T062L28, RAS 10 Members per month 7 months forecast - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Seasonal Climate Predictions at CPTEC-INPE
Paulo NobreCPTEC/INPE
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Current operational runs
• AGCM– KUO, RAS, GRELL, DERF– FCST SSTA, PRESCRIBED SSTA– 15 Members each: 120 total– 4 months forecast
• CGCM – seasonal climate– T062L28, RAS– 10 Members per month– 7 months forecast
• CGCM – extended weather– T126L28, RAS, – 2 members per day– 30 days forecast
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Evaluation of CGCM.1.0 climatology & FCST skill
• AGCM: CPTEC.1.0 RAS T062L28• OGCM: MOM3, 40S-40N, ¼ x ¼ deep tropics,
L20, rigid lid • Ensemble size: 10 members• From each month of the year• Prediction length: 7 months• Period of integration: 1982 - 2001• Atmos IC: NCEP reanalysis• Ocean IC: Restart files from OGCM forced run
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Development of CPTEC’s CGCM 2.0
• AGCM: – CPTEC.2.0 MPI, T126L64– RAS, Grell deep cumulus convection – Shallow cumulus convection (diurnal cycle related…), – improved solar radiation algorithm
• OGCM: – MOM4, Global, 1/8 x 1/8 tropics, L50, free sfc, fresh water flux,– Dynamical ice model– MOM4’s FSM coupler
• Parallel computer with 1000 processors
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
CPTEC’s Coupled GCMCPTEC’s Coupled GCM CPTEC’s Coupled GCMCPTEC’s Coupled GCM
InitializationInitialization
OGCM
Tau &Heat
IC
Coupled ForecastCoupled Forecast
AtmosFCSTs
SFCFluxes
SST
OGCM
AGCM
daily
ICNCEPIC
NCEPIC
NCEPICs
NCEP
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
OGCM Grid
High Res: 0.25º Lon Lat Tropical Atlantic
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
DJF Precipitation Forecastsanomaly correlations
Nobre et al. (2006)
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Experiment Design: Vegetation Changes
CONTROL
100% BARE SOIL50% SAVANNAH SM
50% SAVANNAH LM
Nob
re e
t al
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007)
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES50% SAVANNAH LARGE MESH
Nobre et al. (2007)
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Rainfall reduction over the Amazon amplified by O-A coupling
Nobre et al. (2007)
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Amazon deforestation increases ENSO-related climate variability
Nobre et al. (2007)
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
CGCM Niño 3.4 SST Drift
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
MOM4 Atlantic Meridional Transport (Sv)
NADW
NADW
AABW
AAIW
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Ventilation of the EUCVentilation of the EUC
Adapted from Schott et al. (TACE white paper)Diferent origins?Diferent origins?
STC subduction regionsUpwelling regionsEkman transports (Me)
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Lagrangian analysisLagrangian analysis
• Trace back particles from the EUC at 20W to the deepest mixed layer depth (De Vries & Döös 2001, Hazeleger & al. 2003)
• Distinguish between parcels from T > 20C and T <= 20C
11.7 Sv
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
EUC ventilationEUC ventilation
1.9 Sv
7.8 Sv
0.04 Sv
1.8 Sv
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 200426 March 2004
11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Will extreme events become more frequent in a warmer
climate?
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