WMO Priority Areas of next Financial Period (2012-2015)

--Key issues for CIMO community

Wenjian ZHANGDirector, Observing and Information Systems Department (OBS)

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

CIMO TECO, Helsinki, Finland, 30th August, 2010

Outline

I. WMO Priority Areas of 2012-2015

II. WIGOS&WIS: Priority of Priorities

III. Summary

EC LXII Decision• The Council recommended that the Secretary-

General prepares for consideration by Sixteenth Congress a budget for the sixteenth financial period (2012-2015) that provides adequate resources within the range of proposals presented by the Secretary-General to the Executive Council.

• The budget will address effectively the priority areas which Council agreed should be the – Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), – Capacity Building– WMO Integrated Observations and Information

Systems– Disaster Risk Reduction, and– Aviation Meteorology.

WMO Priority Area

Global Framework for Climate Services

GFCS

World Climate Conference-3World Climate Conference-3

Aug 31 – Sept 4, 2009, GENEVA Aug 31 – Sept 4, 2009, GENEVA

6

Components of Global Framework for Climate Services

Research & Research &

Modeling Modeling

and Predictionand Prediction

HealthHealthHealthHealth

AgricultureAgricultureAgricultureAgriculture

TransportTransportTransportTransport

TourismTourismTourismTourism

WaterWaterWaterWater EnergyEnergyEnergyEnergy

EcosystemEcosystemEcosystemEcosystemSectoralSectoral UsersUsers

Climate Services Information SystemClimate Services Information System

User User

InterfaceInterface

ProgrammeProgramme

Research & Research & Modeling and Modeling and

PredictionPrediction

ObservationObservations and s and

MonitoringMonitoring

HealthHealth

AgricultureAgriculture

TransportTransport

TourismTourismWaterWater

EnergyEnergy

EcosystemEcosystem

UsersUsers

Climate Services Information SystemClimate Services Information System

User User Interface Interface

ProgrammeProgramme

GovernmentGovernment

Private Private sectorsector

WMO Priority Area

Disaster Risk Reduction

DRR

Climate ChangeClimate Change

New Challenges: Climate Change and severe disaster under this background. Ever-complex

society need improved services.

Hail&LightningHail&Lightning

AvalanchesAvalanchesFlash floodsFlash floods

TornadoesTornadoes

Wildland firesWildland fires& haze& haze

Hot & cold spellsHot & cold spells

Heavy precipitationsHeavy precipitations(rain or snow)(rain or snow)

DroughtsDroughts

Storm surgesStorm surges

Storm (winds)Storm (winds)

River basin floodingRiver basin flooding

Mud & landslidesMud & landslides

Ice StormsIce Storms

Tropical cyclonesTropical cyclones

Dust stormsDust storms

Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes are on the Rise !

Intensity

Frequency

Heatwaves

Heavy rainfall / Flood

Strong Wind

Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement

PeoplePeople AgricultureAgriculture

EnergyEnergy

Urban areasUrban areas

Need forMulti-sectoral risk

management

Drought

TransportationTransportationAral SeaAral SeaDisasters impacts

many sectors!

Hazard, vulnerability and exposure on the rise !

Tsunami1%

Wild Fires 2%

Windstorm 43%

Earthquake22%

Drought5%

Extreme Temp.

2%Flood 25%

Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by

Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

90% of events 70% of casualties 75% of economic losses

are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.

Economic losses

Loss of lifeNumber ofevents

Volcano1,6%

Tsunami0,4%

Epidemic, insects13%

Wild Fires 3%

Windstorm 27%

Earthquake8%

Drought5%

Extreme Temp.

4%

Flood 33%

Slides 5%

Volcano1%Tsunami

12%Epidemic,

insects10%

Windstorm 15%

Earthquake16%

Drought30%

Extreme Temp.

5% Flood 10%

Risk levels: Top 30%:Red; Middle 30%:yellow; Lowest 40%: Blue:

Global Hotspot study (World Bank with ProVention Consortium)

35 countries have more than 5% pop in areas at risk from three or more hazards96 countries have more than 10% pop in areas at risk from two or more hazards160 countries have more than 25% pop in areas at risk from one or more hazards

Global Challenges We ShareAs society becomes more complex we become more

sensitive to natural and human induced variability.

WMO Priority Area: Aviation Meteorology

• Aviation Meteorological Services is a priority area of focus under this ER 1.

• The economic and social benefits that can be derived from air transport make it one of the world’s most important industries.

• Expand the provision of weather information needed to improve aviation safety and air traffic management;

WMO Priority Area

Capacity Building

CB

Observation: GAPS

WMO Priority Area

WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) and WMO Information System (WIS)

WIGOS & WIS

What is WIGOS ?What is WIGOS ?WWMO MO IINTEGRATED NTEGRATED GGLOBAL LOBAL OOBSERVING BSERVING SSYSTEM (WIGOS)YSTEM (WIGOS)

• WMO Congress XV (2007) decision that integration in the context of WMO global observing systems defined as:– Establishment of a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable

system of observing systems, ensuring interoperability between its component systems;

– Address, in the most cost-effective way, all of WMO Programme (weather, climate, water and environment) requirements with a view to reducing the financial load on Members and maximizing administrative and operational efficiencies;

• WIGOS Framework major components:– Global Observing System (GOS)– Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW)– WMO Hydrological Global Observing System (WHYGOS)– Facilitate the access to observations of WMO co-sponsored

programmes (GCOS, GOOS, GTOS, etc)

WMO Global Observing Systems

• World Weather Watch - Global Observing System (GOS, 1963), WMO backbone system

– Surface & Ocean in situ observing networks

– Upper-air networks– Surface remote sensing

(Radar) networks– Airborne and observations– Satellite constellations

Annual Global Monitoring

GOS Space-based development

19611961 19781978

19901990 20092009

Historic Evolution of Weather Prediction Skills

Source: Martin Miller, ECMWF

SCIAMACHY

AIRS, IASIGOSAT

OCO2

Global Atmosphere

Watch (GAW)

Assessment of the quantity and quality of water resources in order to meet the needs of society, mitigation of water-related hazards global environment quality

WMO Hydrological Cycle Observing System

87%87%Total Total in situin situ networks networksMarch 2009March 200961%61%

66%66%

81%81%

59%59%79%79%48%48%54%54%

WMO Co-sponsored Global Observing SystemsWMO Co-sponsored Global Observing Systems--Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) for Climate --Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) for Climate

IOC, UNEPIOC, UNEP ， ， WMOWMO and ICSUand ICSU

100%100%

100%100%

MilestonesMilestonesDrifters 2005Drifters 2005

Argo 2007Argo 2007

Status against JCOMM targetsStatus against JCOMM targets

Outline

I. WMO Priority Areas of 2012-2015

II. WIGOS: Priority of Priorities

III. Summary

Importance of observations : From Observations to Consequences

Understanding

Models

Predictions

Consequences(DRR,AM,GFCS)

Validation

Assimilation Initialization

Monitoring

Analysis

WIGOS

The availability of new observations strongly motivates advances in understanding, prediction, and application.

GFCS, what are the key challenges to observation and information

Systems

GFCS: Earth as a Complex System

CirculationCirculationSurface WindsSurface WindsPrecipitationPrecipitationReflection and TransmissionReflection and TransmissionSurface TemperatureSurface TemperatureEvaporationEvaporationCurrentsCurrentsUpwellingUpwelling

CirculationCirculationSurface WindsSurface WindsPrecipitationPrecipitationReflection and TransmissionReflection and TransmissionSurface TemperatureSurface TemperatureEvaporationEvaporationCurrentsCurrentsUpwellingUpwelling

InfiltrationInfiltrationRunoffRunoffNutrient LoadingNutrient LoadingSurface TemperatureSurface TemperatureCurrentsCurrents

InfiltrationInfiltrationRunoffRunoffNutrient LoadingNutrient LoadingSurface TemperatureSurface TemperatureCurrentsCurrents

Surface WindsSurface WindsPrecipitationPrecipitationReflection and TransmissionReflection and TransmissionEvaporationEvaporationTranspirationTranspirationSurface TemperatureSurface Temperature

Surface WindsSurface WindsPrecipitationPrecipitationReflection and TransmissionReflection and TransmissionEvaporationEvaporationTranspirationTranspirationSurface TemperatureSurface Temperature

LandLand

OceanOcean

AtmosphereAtmosphere

A Seamless Prediction and Services Framework

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

PredictionPrediction

Applications

Tra

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Ec

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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

Initial Conditions

Boundary Conditions

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Weeks

Months

Seasons

Years

Weather

Climate Variability

Scenarios

Anthropogenic Forcing

Climate Change.

Adapted from: NOAA

Decades

Centuries

Mid-1970s

Atmosphere

Mid-1980s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Early 1990s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

Late 1990s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Present Day

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Non-sulphateAerosol

Carbon Cycle

Early 2000s?

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Non-sulphateAerosol

Carbon Cycle

DynamicVegetation

AtmosphericChemistry

Weather

Climate Change

ClimateVariability

Overview of Weather and Climate Models and the Required Observations

Need an Integrated Global Observing System meet all requirements

WIGOS Priorities: Fill-in observing gaps

• Key Areas: Sustained observations on operational basis– Ocean (Surface, subsurface and atmosphere

above ocean) observations– Land (including Polar Regions and Cryosphere,

solid precipitation, etc)– Chemical components of atmosphere

• How: by integration of research and operational networks both In-situ and space

Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in

anthropogenic (anthropogenic (humanhuman) greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC AR4)) greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC AR4)

The ENSO• The predictability rely on sub-surface data• Satellite can not observe sub-surface now

TOGA, WOCE, CLIVAR, Argo:TOGA, WOCE, CLIVAR, Argo: Global Ocean ObservationsGlobal Ocean ObservationsImproved basis for an ocean prediction systemImproved basis for an ocean prediction system

Current coverageCurrent coverage

Key issues for CIMO: Ocean Observing Systems

111 met/ocean buoys

4 ocean/waves buoys

49 C-MAN stations

39 DART stations

55 TAO buoys + 4 current profiler moorings

1000+ Voluntary Observing Ship vessels

NDBC’s Ocean Observing Systems

36

TAO

DART

C-MAN

Weather& Hurric.

1980 1990 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Growth of NDBC Observing Systems

• 49 CMAN Stations• 96 Weather Buoys• 15 Supplemental Hurricane Buoys• 55 TAO Climate Buoy Systems• 39 DART Tsunami Systems

254 Observing Systems 5 system Types with diverse sensors

~ 25 % in Severe Environments• Challenge Obtaining Ship Days

101 Observing Systems 2 system Types with similar sensors

~ 12 % in Severe Environments• USCG Provided all Ship Days

• 51 CMAN Stations• 50 Weather Buoys

1999 to 2009 - The Era of Explosive Growth

+ 300%

Tsunami

Katrina

The Arctic Ocean ice has been there for 2 million years.

1979

CCl Management Group meeting, Geneva 18-21 May 2010

2003

CCl Management Group meeting, Geneva 18-21 May 2010

Tiksi, Russia

Alert, Canada

Barrow, Alaska

Eureka, Canada

Summit, Greenland

Ny-Alesund, Svalbard

Establishing IntensiveAtmospheric ObservatoriesIn the Arctic is the componentof NOAA/SEARCH being directed by ESRL

Temperature-salinity observations under ice

Key issue for CIMO: Polar & cryosphere obs.

• Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW) and International Polar Decade (IPD) –EC-PORS

• Solid precipitation observing instruments and methods

• Cold region observation systems ( Atmosphere, Ocean, Ice, Land, chemical, etc)

Temperature-salinity observations under ice

Key issue for CIMO: Chemical observing instruments

EC-LXII Doc.3.4 Para 3.4.16•  The Council recalled that the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano

had a huge impact on air traffic across Northern Europe during April and May 2010, and expressed it’s appreciation to those Members who shared specialized ground and airborne observational data in support of the activities of the London VAAC.

• The Council further noted that a sustainable volcanic ash observational capability is a high priority activity. It urged the relevant technical commissions (CIMO) to work closely with ICAO and other relevant organizations to develop and implement such a capability, to promote development of appropriate Regional Volcanic Ash Monitoring Networks and related instrument development and also to assist in the strengthening and enhancement of the capabilities of the International Airways Volcano Watch volcano observatories.

• The Council further emphasized that WIGOS should be designed and implemented in a way that can respond to emerging and high priority requirements such as the observation of volcanic ash.

WIGOS Priority: Ensure the quality of the observations to meet climate & environmental requirements

• Accuracy, Precision• Representativeness• Measurement traceability• Long-time series stability• Reducing uncertainty• .............

Sea level Observations: 100 fold Sea level Observations: 100 fold improvement in 30 yearsimprovement in 30 years

WIGOS Priority: Long-term stabilityThe longest available instrumental record of Temperature

WMO / CCl Guidelines on: “Climate Observation Networks & Systems” “Metadata and Homogeneity“ “Climate Data Rescue” “Climate Data Management”

Guidelines on maintaining national climate networks

Length (>>10 years) and homogeneity of data records Climate

scenarios….-> baseline climatologies

with scenarios

change of sensors

Trend: N10 = - 0.40 K Dec-1, N11 = 0.80 K Dec-1,

N12 = 0.36 K Dec-1, N14 = 0.43 K Dec-1

248

249

250

251

252

253

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

NOAA10

NOAA11

NOAA12

NOAA14

Linear (NOAA10)

Linear (NOAA11)

Linear (NOAA12)

Linear (NOAA14)

Multi-satellite Intercalibration improves MSU time series

Trend: N10 = -0.39 K Dec-1, N11 = 0.58 K Dec-1

N12 = 0.43 K Dec-1, N14 = 0.31 K Dec-1

248

249

250

251

252

253

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

NOAA10

NOAA11

NOAA12

NOAA14

Linear (NOAA10)

Linear (NOAA11)

Linear (NOAA12)

Linear (NOAA14)

Operational Calibration

Improved calibrated radiances using SNO- improveddifferences between sensors by order of magnitude.

Trend = 0.17 K Dec-1

250

251

252

253

254

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Combined

Linear (Combined)

Trends for nonlinear calibration algorithm using SNO cross calibration

0.20 K Decade-1

Improved Calibration

WIGOS WIGOS Priority (remote sensing systems)Priority (remote sensing systems): : Quality Environmental Products : GCOS Quality Environmental Products : GCOS ECVsECVs

NPOESS products delivered at multiple levels

A/D Conversion

Detection

FluxManipulation

Packetization

Compression

FiltrationAux.SensorData

CCSDS (mux, code, frame) & Encrypt

CommXmitter

SE

NS

OR

S

OT

HE

RS

UB

SY

ST

EM

S

Cal.Source

DataStore

ENVIRONMENTALSOURCE

COMPONENTS

SP

AC

E S

EG

ME

NT

RDRProduction

EDRProduction

SDRProduction

EDR Level

SDR Level

RDR Level

IDP

S

CommReceiver

CommProcessing

Delivered Raw

C3S

TDR Level

data• Satellite data processing and

products/information generation is of great challenge (sciences, technologies, calibration, validation with ground observations, etc..)

• Satellite operators should develop value-added informative products and make them available to worldwide users, especially to developing countries.

products information

knowledge

Outline

I. WMO Priority Areas of 2012-2015

II. WIGOS: Priority of Priorities

III. Summary

• WIGOS will address improved value and availability of information via three areas of integration and standardization:– At the Instruments and Methods of Observation

Level– At the Data, Product & Metadata Exchange Level

(WIS)– At the Data Utilization Level - QMF principles

• WIGOS Success rely on Measurements science and technology: Great Challenge

WIGOS: Address three areas of Integrations/Standardizations

QMF Standards Instruments and methods of

observation standards

WIS

Standardsfor

Data & Metadata exchange&

Discovery, Access and Retrieval (DAR) Services

Observationsfor

Weather,Climate,Water,

Ocean, …

DataProcessing and

Forecasting

Archiving

Users

Active Quality Management

Three areas of Integrations/Standardizations

56

Information request to custodian

http://weather.gmdss.org/I.html

Search Results

User searches for metadata then retrieves information from data custodian

GISC – DAR service

NC/DCPC information access service

Centre publishes metadata to GISC DAR catalogue

Security/authentication/authorization and even charging is managed by each service

provider

Retrieve information

Search Requestmarine warnings in area bounded by 40W to 10W and 45N to 70N

WIS – New functionality supporting WIGOS

04/19/2304/19/23 5757

WDIS: WIGOS & WIS

• WIGOS & WIS - a framework enabling the integration and optimized evolution of WMO observing and information systems, and WMO’s contribution to co-sponsored systems.

• Members’ support is critical to provide additional resources in the form of:

contributions to the WIGOS Trust Fund and secondment services to the Secretariatduring the WIGOS Implementation phase to ensure successful WIGOS implementation.

04/19/2304/19/23 5858

WDIPWDIP

TestingTesting(2007-2011)(2007-2011) ImplementationImplementation

(2012-2015)(2012-2015)

WMO WMO RegulatoryRegulatory

MaterialMaterial

WIGOS PhasesWIGOS Phases

OperationsOperations(2015 - … )(2015 - … )

CONOPSCONOPS

WIGOSWIGOSImperativeImperative

WDISWDIS W I PW I P

CONOPSCONOPS WIGOSWIGOSManualManual

: : Reference forReference for

WIGOS is for everyone!Everyone can contribute to WIGOS!

Thanks for your attention !

WIGOS Web Page

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/wigos/index_en.htmlhttp://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/wigos/index_en.html