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Why Providing Steady Income Requires Alternatives? Thursday, March 20, 2014, at 2:00 p.m. (EST)
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Sheffel, Jr., and Peter Tchir are guest speakers and are not affiliated with S&P Dow Jones Indices
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Shaun Wurzbach
4
Moderator
Vice President, Global Head of Financial Advisor Channel
S&P Dow Jones Indices
Shaun Wurzbach, vice president at S&P Dow Jones Indices, is responsible for financial advisor channel management globally. The financial advisor channel focuses on increasing financial advisors’ awareness of and preference for index-based solutions.
Shaun joined S&P Indices in 2007 as head of the program management office, where his goal was to improve operational efficiency, new index design and costing procedures, and link effective change management to S&P Indices’ index calculation engines. Shaun was then asked to lead the New York and London-based index calculation teams in 2008, culminating in a reorganizational effort that resulted in a combined, international index analysis and production group.
Prior to joining S&P Indices, Shaun was a U.S. Army officer with over 20 years of active duty service including combat operations as a reconnaissance platoon leader in Desert Shield and Desert Storm.
Shaun has a master’s degree from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and a bachelor’s degree from The United States Military Academy at West Point.
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Robyn Graham
5
Vice President, Institutional Services and Associate Portfolio Manager
HAHN Investment Stewards
Robyn is responsible for managing HAHN's strategic business development initiatives across North America, co-ordinates HAHN's sales and marketing program and is a key spokesperson for the firm.
Robyn has over 25 years of investment industry experience serving high net worth and institutional clients, consultants and advisers and manages key corporate and institutional relationships for HAHN. Prior to joining HAHN, Robyn worked in progressively senior roles with Jones Heward Investment Management, Altamira Investment Services, Natcan Investment Management and Northern Rivers Capital Management.
Robyn is a member of the CFA Institute, is a Fellow of the Canadian Securities Institute, and has her Chartered Investment Manager, Certified Financial Planner and Associate Portfolio Manager designations. She has served on a variety of industry committees and is an experienced industry speaker and educator on topics including asset allocation, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, alternative investments, investment style and portfolio optimization.
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Anthony Parish, CFA
6
Vice President, Research & Portfolio Strategy
Sage Advisory
Mr. Parish is part of a team responsible for building proprietary asset-allocation models covering the major investment asset classes (US and international equities, fixed income, commodities, currencies and alternatives) and generating capital-markets research to frame portfolio allocation decisions.
Prior to joining Sage, he worked as an investment strategy analyst at Deutsche Asset Management, developed investment products at Credit Suisse and headed the product analysis team at OppenheimerFunds, all in New York City. In his former life he was a financial journalist.
He received an MBA in Finance from Fordham University’s Graduate School of Business Administration. He is a CFA charter holder and a member of the CFA Society of Austin, TX.
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Roger Scheffel, Jr.
7
Principal and Portfolio Manager
Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas Asset Management
Mr. Scheffel is a Principal and Portfolio Manager for Wilbanks, Smith and Thomas Asset Management, LLC. Roger is a member of the investment committee. Over the past two decades, Roger has worked extensively with entrepreneurs, wealthy families and senior executives in areas including the acquisition and financing of closely-held businesses, investment capital management, estate planning, beneficiary mentoring and education, in addition to other aspects of multi-generational planning.
Before joining Wilbanks, Smith and Thomas, Mr. Scheffel worked with a Global Wealth Management and Investment Banking Firm. While there, he was responsible for managing client relationships, portfolio management, lending and financial planning. Prior to entering the Financial Services Industry, Mr. Scheffel was a Senior Manager in Ernst & Young’s Private Client Services. As part of this practice, he was involved in planning for the commercial activities of an entrepreneur and senior level corporate executives.
Mr. Scheffel graduated from St. Mary’s University with a Bachelor of Business Administration in Accounting. He is a member of the American Institute of CPA’s and the Texas Society of CPA’s. He is a member of the Personal Financial Planning Section and holds the Personal Financial Specialist credential. Also he is licensed to sell life and health insurance in Virginia. Mr. Scheffel has taught Portfolio Management as an adjunct professor at a local university in the M.B.A. program.
Current community activities include serving as a Board member of the Virginia Zoological Society. Mr. Scheffel is a member of the 2001 Leadership Class with Lead Hampton Roads, a program of the Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce.
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Peter Tchir
8
Managing Director
TF Market Advisors
Peter started TF Market Advisors in 2011 as a platform to trade and provide market information. The trading strategies are macro, but the direction and value decisions are based on insights into the credit markets. The firm’s commentary has been gaining respect and Peter has become a recognized source of information on the developments in Europe in particular, but has also been very involved in recommendations on the banking industry and high yield bonds. He has appeared numerous times on Bloomberg TV and radio, and has been quoted in articles in the Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press, and Fox Business News. Many top hedge funds, money managers, and asset allocators have asked to be included on the distribution list.
Peter was a Portfolio Manager at KLS in the fall of 2008 and spring of 2009. He achieved positive performance for the period using a combination of single credit positions, well timed macro trading, and an active trading strategy that developed additional trading revenue around the core credit decisions and enhanced relationships to ensure allocations on investment grade new issues that could perform well. The returns were aided by product choice as much as specific credit decisions because the understanding of bonds, loans, and CDS, and investment grade and high yield, and single name and index, helped maximize returns or minimize downside for any level of risk.
Peter has been involved in all aspects of credit trading. He started his career with Bankers Trust in 1994 in the newly formed Credit Derivatives group. While at Bankers Trust and then Deutsche Bank, Peter ran High Yield Credit Derivatives which included cash, CDS, synthetic CDO’s, total return swaps on leveraged loans, and hybrid CLO’s. During this time he was very involved in the industry groups that developed the CDS product and that deep familiarity with the product helps when trading as the in depth knowledge can spot trading opportunities when markets are volatile or headline driven. He was hired by UBS to build out those businesses there, but over time became involved in the Credit Index Trading. He was a board member of CDS Indexco, which created the CDX suite of indices. He went on to start a successful index trading business at RBS in North America, where during 2007 and early 2008, the business went from nowhere to being profitable and a top 5 liquidity provider.
Peter received his Bachelors of Mathematics degree, Joint Honors Computer Science and Combinatorics and Optimization from the University of Waterloo, where he was a Descartes Fellow and graduated as the all--time leading scorer on the football team. He completed his MBA in Finance and Marketing at Vanderbilt University and was awarded the Matt Wiggington Leadership award for outstanding performance in finance.
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Unveiling the Hidden Costs of
Retail Bond-Buying
Indexology: Join the Conversation
at www.indexologyblog.com
Dividend Investing and a
Look Inside the S&P Dow
Jones Dividend Indices
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Presenter Firm Investment Process for
Delivering Steady Income
10
Robyn Graham, HAHN Investment Stewards
Anthony Parish, Sage Advisory
Roger Scheffel, Jr., Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas Asset Management
Peter Tchir, TF Market Advisors
March 20, 2014
Why Providing Steady Income Requires Alternatives
Robyn Graham, Vice President,
Institutional Services/Associate
Portfolio Manager
HAHN Investment Stewards
Global macro investment manager.
Thematic. Opportunistic.
Longest running ETF-only manager in the world
“One of the best and brightest” working in the ETF
industry
Member, CNBC’s ETF Advisory Council
(est. April 2013)
Consistent track record, low “draw-down” return style
Institutional process - documented, disciplined, proven
Key Distinctives
Noting Realistic Return Expectations
A continuing global income crisis is the major challenge for a
world with an aging population.
Investment Environment and Risk
Geo-political flare-up creates distractions recently.
Japan and other central banks pursuing unorthodox and extreme
policies.
Liquidity conditions, slow world export growth, instabilities impact
emerging markets generally.
Economic pace disappointing. Markets again like bad news.
Inflation trends, tending towards disinflation.
Factors Determining Outlook are Complex and Unorthodox
HAHN Response Thematic. Opportunistic. Pragmatic.
Expanded regional and asset type exposure
Tactical management of global macro factor risks
Active currency management
Implementation using ETFs
W I L B A N K S S M I T H & T H O M A S 16
Firm Profile
See Notes and Disclosures pages at the end of this presentation.
• Privately owned and independent, located in Norfolk, VA
• Founded in 1990
• Over $2 billion in assets under management
• Providing investment solutions for High Net Worth Individuals, Corporations, Non-Profits, Taft-Hartley and Bank Trust Departments
Multi Strategy Asset Management
Advisory Firm, managing over $2
billion in assets
Founded as a U.S. Large Cap Growth
based Firm
Integrated Rules Based
Quantitative Asset Management
Began the transition from Active to Index
Based Asset Class Exposure
Evolved into a Multi-Asset
Class manager and financial advisory firm
17
Overview • Using ETFs with institutional clients since 1998
• One of the first all-ETF strategies in 2002
• $2.4 Billion ETF AUM/AUA as of 12/31/2013
• $10 Billion total AUM/AUA as of 12/31/2013
Strategies & Services • All Cap Equity Plus
• Core Plus Fixed Income
• Target Risk
• Target Date
• Multi Asset Income
Sage ETF Offerings
• Pioneer in ETF asset management
• Institutional design and implementation
• Designed to deliver strong risk-adjusted
performance while mitigating downside risk
TACTICAL ETF AUM/AUA
BY STRATEGY (12/31/2013)
ABOUT SAGE
18
The prevailing risk sentiment in the market can point to different income
choices
INCOME CHOICES FOR DIFFERENT MARKETS
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays as of 2/28/2014. Past performance is no indication of future results.
Risk-On
Choices
Risk-Off
Choices
FIRC
Fixed Income, Rates, and Credit
March, 20th, 2014
Think FIRC & Think Trading
“Fixed Income” is too narrow of a definition for what we
can invest in for “income” purposes
Income portfolios need to be looked at on a total return
basis as much as any equity portfolio
Managing Bond Market Risk
Complex but Simple
• Bonds have their own terminology, which while confusing at first,
you will realize it is more about job security for fixed income
professionals than anything that is truly difficult to understand
• Think in basic “building blocks” of risk and you can’t go wrong
• Fixed Income portfolios can be customized to express risk views
in ways that equity portfolios can’t
Bond Market Risks – Rate And Duration
Rate Risk
• Typically treasury or sovereign debt risk. The “risk-free” rate
• LIBOR, a benchmark for short term rate risk, typically tracks Fed
Funds and Bank Credit Spreads
• TIPS are traded on a “real yield” where investors can lock in a
real rate of return above CPI
• Rates are expressed in yield, or bps (basis points), where 1 bp
(basis point) is simply 0.01% in yield terms
Bond Market Risks – Rate And Duration
Duration Risk
• Bonds with longer maturities generally have more interest rate
risk. For a similar change in yield a bond with a longer maturity
will typically have a larger price move
• Callable bonds, typical of high yield bonds and preferred bonds,
cap their upside as they can be called, so they face “extension”
risk where the effective maturity increases as prices decline
Bond Market Risks – Curve Risk
Curve Risk
• Bond yields have changed with the curve “steepening” which
means that longer rates have increased faster than short term
rates
• U.S. Treasury Yield Curves remain very steep
• Forward rates have priced in a lot of weakness as the “fair” rate
for the 10 year bond yield in 1 year is about 3.35% or 0.45% than
the current 10 year rate
• This process of “bootstrapping” is a key element of
understanding curve risk
Bond Market Risks – Credit Risk
Credit or “Spread” Risk is Similar to Yield Risk
• Duration impacts change in spreads the same way duration
impacts changes in rates
• There are credit spread “curves” which can be steep or flat and
tend to invert if a credit runs into problems
• High Yield and EM spreads are typically more volatile than
Investment Grade Spreads
Bond Market Risks by Fixed Income Asset Class
Market Rate Duration Credit
Short Maturity Treasuries Yes Low Low
Intermediate Treasuries Yes Medium Low
Long term Treasuries Yes High Low
TIPS Some Medium Low
Investment Grade Bonds Yes High Medium
High Yield Corporate Yes Medium High
Floating Rate Notes No None Low
Leveraged Loans No None Medium
Municipal Bonds Yes High Medium
Preferred Shares Yes High High
Emerging Market bonds Yes High High
27
Balancing Yield and Interest Rate Risk
CHOICES FOR INCOME
Source: Bloomberg as of 2/28/2014. Past performance is no indication of future results.
W I L B A N K S S M I T H & T H O M A S FOR USE IN ONE-ON-ONE PRESENTATIONS ONLY
Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas Asset Management, LLCZephyr StyleADVISOR: Wilbanks, Smith and Thomas Asset Management
Risk / Return TableSeptember 1986 - December 2007: Summary Statistics
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield
CumulativeReturn
490.49%
AnnualizedReturn
8.68%
StandardDeviation
6.52%
SharpeRatio
0.61
Alphavs.
Market
0.00%
Betavs.
Market
1.00
Numberof
Observations
256
Up/Down TableSeptember 1986 - December 2007. Single Computation
Up
Bof A Merrill Lynch US High Yield 192
Down
64
Up
1.50
Down
-1.66
UpMarket
1.50
DownMarket
-1.66
Best
8.68
Worst
-7.74
UpCapture
100.0
DownCapture
100.0
R-Squared
100.00
# of Months Average Return (%)Average Return (%)
vs. MarketMonth (%) Market Benchmark (%)
Drawdown TableSeptember 1986 - December 2007: Summary S tatistics
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield
MaxDrawdown
-12.00%
MaxDrawdownBegin Date
May 2002
MaxDrawdownEnd Date
Jul 2002
MaxDrawdown
Length
3
MaxRunup
505.66%
MaxRunup
Begin Date
Sep 1986
MaxRunup
End Date
May 2007
MaxRunupLength
249
UpCapture
vs.Market
100.00%
DownCapture
vs.Market
100.00%
Zephyr Analysis (September 1986-December 2007)
Source: Zephyr Index returns do not reflect the deduction of management fees which if deducted would result in a material change in performance. Investment advisory fees are described in Wilbanks Smith & Thomas Asset Management, LLC’s Form ADV Part 2A. See Notes and Disclosures pages at the end of this presentation.
W I L B A N K S S M I T H & T H O M A S FOR USE IN ONE-ON-ONE PRESENTATIONS ONLY
Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas Asset Management, LLCZephyr StyleADVISOR: Wilbanks, Smith and Thomas Asset Management
Risk / Return TableSeptember 1986 - December 2013: Summary Statistics
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield
CumulativeReturn
922.05%
AnnualizedReturn
8.88%
StandardDeviation
8.32%
SharpeRatio
0.62
Alphavs.
Market
0.00%
Betavs.
Market
1.00
Numberof
Observations
328
Up/Down TableSeptember 1986 - December 2013. Single Computation
Up
Bof A Merrill Lynch US High Yield 244
Down
84
Up
1.69
Down
-2.03
UpMarket
1.69
DownMarket
-2.03
Best
11.47
Worst
-16.30
UpCapture
100.0
DownCapture
100.0
R-Squared
100.00
# of Months Average Return (%)Average Return (%)
vs. MarketMonth (%) Market Benchmark (%)
Drawdown TableSeptember 1986 - December 2013: Summary S tatistics
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield
MaxDrawdown
-33.22%
MaxDrawdownBegin Date
Jun 2007
MaxDrawdownEnd Date
Nov 2008
MaxDrawdown
Length
18
MaxRunup
922.05%
MaxRunup
Begin Date
Sep 1986
MaxRunup
End Date
Dec 2013
MaxRunupLength
328
UpCapture
vs.Market
100.00%
DownCapture
vs.Market
100.00%
Zephyr Analysis (September 1986-December 2013)
Source: Zephyr Index returns do not reflect the deduction of management fees which if deducted would result in a material change in performance. Investment advisory fees are described in Wilbanks Smith & Thomas Asset Management, LLC’s Form ADV Part 2A. See Notes and Disclosures pages at the end of this presentation.
W I L B A N K S S M I T H & T H O M A S FOR USE IN ONE-ON-ONE PRESENTATIONS ONLY 30
Zephyr Analysis
Source: Zephyr Index returns do not reflect the deduction of management fees which if deducted would result in a material change in performance. Investment advisory fees are described in Wilbanks Smith & Thomas Asset Management, LLC’s Form ADV Part 2A. See Notes and Disclosures pages at the end of this presentation.
Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas Asset Management, LLCZephyr StyleADVISOR: Wilbanks, Smith and Thomas Asset Management
Risk / Return TableApril 2007 - February 2014: Summary Statistics
Loomis Sayles Strategic Income Y
PIMCO Income Instl
Barclays U.S. Aggregate
50% Barclays Agg. / 50% ML High Yield
CumulativeReturn
AnnualizedReturn
StandardDeviation
SharpeRatio
Alphavs.
Market
Betavs.
Market
Numberof
Observations
73.52% 8.29% 11.60% 0.64 -2.42% 1.54 83
99.80% 10.52% 5.50% 1.76 5.94% 0.61 83
40.61% 5.05% 3.45% 1.23 3.47% 0.22 83
61.72% 7.20% 7.11% 0.90 0.00% 1.00 83
Up/Down TableApril 2007 - February 2014. Single Computation
# of Months Average Return (%)Average Return (%)
vs. MarketMonth (%) Market Benchmark (%)
Loomis Sayles Strategic Income Y
PIMCO Income Instl
Barclays U.S. Aggregate
50% Barclays Agg. / 50% ML High Yield
Up Down Up DownUp
MarketDownMarket
Best WorstUp
CaptureDown
CaptureR-Squared
56 27 2.32 -2.58 2.15 -2.78 9.17 -15.19 147.7 163.4 89.25
60 23 1.62 -1.16 1.55 -0.87 3.55 -4.32 103.7 56.3 62.43
58 25 0.89 -0.68 0.56 0.06 3.73 -2.36 35.5 -3.3 20.40
59 24 1.50 -1.61 1.50 -1.61 5.86 -9.85 100.0 100.0 100.00
Drawdown TableApril 2007 - February 2014: Summary S tatistics
Loomis Sayles Strategic Income Y
PIMCO Income Instl
Barclays U.S. Aggregate
50% Barclays Agg. / 50% ML High Yield
MaxDrawdown
MaxDrawdownBegin Date
MaxDrawdownEnd Date
MaxDrawdown
Length
MaxRunup
MaxRunup
Begin Date
MaxRunup
End Date
MaxRunupLength
UpCapture
vs.Market
DownCapture
vs.Market
-30.24% Nov 2007 Nov 2008 13 132.50% Dec 2008 Feb 2014 63 147.68% 163.39%
-10.39% Feb 2008 Feb 2009 13 108.58% Mar 2009 Feb 2014 60 103.65% 56.28%
-3.83% Apr 2008 Oct 2008 7 42.66% Jul 2007 Apr 2013 70 35.50% -3.31%
-18.38% May 2008 Nov 2008 7 91.62% Dec 2008 Feb 2014 63 100.00% 100.00%
A Deeper Look into Leveraged Loans vs High Yield
High Yield Bonds Leveraged Loans
Credit Risk High Yield Companies
Secured Debt of High Yield
Companies
Interest Rate
Risk
Yes, average maturity is
about 5 years
Somewhat as LIBOR floor has
turned many loans into fixed
rate for forseeable future
LIBOR Risk Not Directly
Due to LIBOR floors most
loans will not see coupon
increases even if LIBOR
increases
Best Case
Lower yields, improved
credit spreads, with some
M&A Activity for large total
return
Current Coupon since most
loans are callable at or near
current prices
Worst Case
Yields rise or we see a return
of real credit risk
The oversupply due to CLO
demand comes back to
haunt the market
HAHN Global Income Focus Portfolio Multi-asset, Tactical within Defined Policy Ranges
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Opportunity
Investments
Cash Equivalents Bonds: Canada Bonds: International Real Estate Equities:Canada Equities:
International
Strategy Range Benchmark Current Strategy
1. Current strategies represent actual investment policies, including opportunity assets, implemented in the portfolio. Strategies are subject to change.
* The composite benchmark for this portfolio is comprised of the following indices and weights: CAD 90-day Treasury Bill index (5%), MSCI EAFE Index in $Cdn (14%), S&P 500 Index in $CDN
(11%), S&P/TSX 60 Index (25%), Citigroup World BIG Non-USD Bonds in $Cdn (13%), Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bonds in $Cdn (9.5%), DEX Universe Bonds (22.5%).
HAHN Global Income Focus Portfolio
Asset Mix and Yield at December 31, 2013
4. The total weighted portfolio yield is calculated by multiplying the weight of an individual ETF by its 12 month yield and summing the results for the total portfolio. The 12 month yield is the sum of an ETF's total trailing 12-month interest and dividend payments divided by the last month’s ending share price (NAV) plus any capital gains distributed over the same period. Data supplied by Morningstar.
HAHN Global Income Focus Sample Portfolio Asset Types and Rationale
Asset Type Rationale
US High Yield Bonds • Yield • Credit diversification
Chinese Yuan Dim Sum Bonds
• Yield • Diversification: geographical,
currency, sector
Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt • Yield • Diversification: geographical, • Currency hedging
Real Estate and Mortgage REITs • Yield • Diversification: asset type
Dividend Paying Equities • Yield • Diversification: asset type
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution. PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
GENERAL DISCLAIMER
35
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Indices
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Anthony Parish, CFA
Sage Advisory
Roger Scheffel, Jr.
Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas Asset Management
Peter Tchir
TF Market Advisors
Shaun Wurzbach
S&P Dow Jones Indices
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