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Our Climate Change Program

James Watson

WCS Lead, Climate Change Team IUCN Climate Change Task Force Chair

Anton Seimon

WCS Applied Climate Scientist

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Mammals

Mammals, birds & amphibians

Birds

Plants Plants

Plants & animals

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Background extinction rate

Red list Jetz van Vuuren Malcom Thomas

E/MSY

Species extinction

Recent past Distant past 2050

GBO3 – Terrestrial Scenarios

Projected Terrestrial Species Extinctions

Land use & Climate Change

Land use & Climate Change

Climate Change

Climate Change

Plants & vertebrates

Spec

ies

Extin

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ates

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The Red List Index (RLI) for all these species groups is decreasing.

Coral species are moving most

rapidly towards greater extinction risk

Amphibians are, on average, the

group most threatened.

Source: IUCN

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Trends in habitats are varied but show declines overall

•Wetlands, salt marshes, coral reefs, seagrass beds and sea ice continue to decline •Extensive fragmentation of forests and rivers • Mangrove decline slowing (except in Asia) •The condition of many terrestrial habitats is deteriorating (degrading)

Source: NSIDC

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MEA Major Findings

The world’s ecosystems changed more rapidly in the second half of the twentieth century than at any time in recorded human history; most rapid changes now are taking place in developing countries

Approximately 60% (15 out of 24) of

the ecosystem services evaluated are being degraded or used unsustainably.

Humans have substantially altered

regulating services by modifying the ecosystem providing the service and exceeding the capabilities of ecosystems to provide the service.

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Response to the biodiversity crisis

Development of the discipline of Conservation Biology CBD treaty National governments developing environmental legislation Foreign aid focused on conservation Growth in number of concerned citizens Development of a third ‘life affirming movement’ – conservation

NGOs

Research Implementation Policy Advocacy

WCS TNC

CI

WWF

WRI

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WCS Landscapes and Seascapes

60 countries, 490 projects, 3000 staff $200M annual budget

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A change in conservation direction

Protected areas

1895 Today

Conservation of wildlife and critical ecosystems

Single species

Landscapes and Seascapes

WCS's evolution

since 1895

Target results Improved natural resource governance

Greater security and prosperity for local people

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Our landscapes are witnessing change

1. Increasing mining and forestry 2. Increasing agricultural and fishing practices 3. Changes in human settlements 4. Growth of China 5. Climate change

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Natural resource extraction activities are a growing threat to our landscapes and seascapes

Note: Includes mines for coal, iron, copper, chromium, nickel, gold, silver, diamond, lead, and others Source: Raw Materials Database

Mines of the world, by stage (2010)

OECD Outlook 2010-2030

More than US $10 trillion investment in mining sector $16 - $20 trillion investment to meet 53% increase in primary energy demand

• CO2 emissions expected to increase by 55%

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Scientists in WCS land and sea-scapes have witnessed

1. Changing phenology of plants 2. Changing abundances and distribution of species 3. Changing migratory dates 4. Changing ecological processes 5. Changing natural disturbances 6. Changing human behavior

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WCS dual response to climate change

Helping wildlife and people (and the ecosystems that sustain them) adapt to climate change

WCS

response

Adaptation

An adjustment in natural or human systems in response to expected climate stimuli… which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC)

Mitigation

Human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases (IPCC)

WCS response

Reducing deforestation and other land-use change

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Protecting Biodiversity Mitigating Climate Change Supporting Local Communities

~49,000 individuals living inside project zone in 2009

• 200,000 additional people live in surrounding area

44 community management sites established 35,000 people engaged

Makira contains 50% of Madagascar’s endemic biodiversity

• 1% of global biodiversity • 20 of 97 identified Lemur

species, the greatest number in any protected area

• Critical forest corridor between outlying forest blocks

~35 million tons of CO2 to be sequestered over 30 years

• ~ 1 million tons of CO2 / year

Prevents deforestation that would result from business-as-usual land-use change

• Project area: 439,589 ha – 2,461 ha of forest

estimated to be protected every year

Source: WCS Madagascar Program

Mitigation: Makira generates triple benefits for climate change, biodiversity, and livelihoods

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Adaptation: a proactive framework

1. Set objectives and targets

2. Conduct baseline of landscape or seascape

3. Assess how vulnerable species, ecosystems and local people are to climate change and develop solutions

4. Get stakeholders together and assess current actions and see if they align with these solutions

5. Develop adaptive management plan based on new targets and monitor situation

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WCS experience on Climate Change in Africa

Albertine Rift Climate Assessment project & Western Indian Ocean coral reef initiatives

Recently completed first survey of

conservation NGO work on adaptation for conservation in Africa

Prepared state of the science assessment

of climate change for new MacArthur Foundation 10-yr strategy

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The WCS Albertine Rift Climate Assessment Project

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1. Climatological baseline studies 2. Ecological modeling using climate models 3. Monitoring for climate change 4. Stakeholder consultation and outreach 5. Implement adaptation activities 6. Repeat process every 5-10 years

Project stages

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Trainings and outreach

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Downscaled multimodel output statistics over the Albertine Rift model domain – A2 scenario

Baseline | Future

Max & Min = gridpoint extremes across the project domain Mean = average of all gridpoints.

Climate predictions from CMIP3 models

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Initiating climate monitoring in national parks

Kahuzi Biega National Park, DR-Congo, 2,435 m

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OUTPUTS 1. Climatological variables • Monthly mean temperature (°C) • Monthly mean precipitation amount (mm) • Monthly mean cloud cover (% sky coverage) 2. Carbon Fluxes • Net Primary Production (NPP) • Land-Atmosphere flux • Carbon Loss from Fire • Heterotrophic respiration (Rh) 3. Carbon Pools •Vegetation Carbon •Soil Carbon •Litter Carbon •Annual Total Carbon 4. Hydrological Variables • Total Runoff (mm) • Actual Evapotranspiration (mm) 5. Vegetation and agriculture • Annual Phaseolus Bean Yield (kg ha-2) • Annual Brachiaria decumbens Yield (kg ha-2) • Annual Maize Yield (kg ha-2) • Fractional Cover of Plant Functional Type (%0

Environmental modeling of future ecological conditions Procedure used to generate ecologically meaningful products specific to the Albertine Rift

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Downscaling limitations

2090 conditions compared to 1990

Pixel resolution ~55 km Scale does not meet conservation planning needs

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LPJ model output: hydrological runoff

Initial drying followed by strong increases in runoff helpful for long-term planning in a general sense only Limitations: spatial resolution, land surface not specified, need to relate to streamflow, water use and ecosystem service provision, no inference on lake levels, etc.

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Indicators of human response in rain-fed agricultural regions Increasing pressure on highlands for food production Limitations - Does not reference

present distributions - Cultivars assessed

individually rather than collectively

- Not performed for elevationally constrained cash crops (coffee, tea)

beans

maize

pasture

Crop yields

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Nyungwe-Kibira study

Burundi

Rwanda

Effort to compare existing CESM/CLM outputs with our previous results Add hindcasting and more environmental variables to existing set

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What we see in CESM

We would like to see how CESM maps conservation landscapes: How climate change affects biodiversity and ecosystem services

Use hindcasts and forecasts to better understand the role of climate

Sensitivity analyses & valuation studies to justify conservation measures

Mapping opportunities: where are optimal sites for developing durable REDD programs and payments for ecosystem services (PES) initiatives? Which sites would be poor choices?

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East Africa Great Lakes initiative Developing guidance for conservation planning: - Changing ecological states - Ecosystem service provision - Human settlement - Agriculture and industrial development

Other major WCS programs in adaptation - Lower Mekong watershed - Pamirs highlands - Mongolian wetlands

Project opportunities

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Do our conservation objectives make sense?

Are we working in the right places?

What does the Human Footprint look like in the future?

How can we explore trade-offs for development and conservation?

Integrated Assessment Modeling of future landscapes

Coupling CESM and IAM components would be powerful assets for envisioning environmental futures

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WCS Landscapes and Seascapes

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How do treaty obligations like CBD factor into scenario development? Can they be incorporated into models? Should environmental conservation community be helping to define the shared pathways? IPBES and the link with the IPCC

Biodiversity conservation and international climate policy

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CBD 2020 targets

Target 5: By 2020, the rate of loss of all natural habitats, including forests, is at least halved and where feasible brought close to zero, and degradation and fragmentation is significantly reduced.

Target 10: By 2015 the multiple anthropogenic pressures on coral reefs, and

other vulnerable ecosystems impacted by climate change or ocean acidification are minimized, so as to maintain their integrity and functioning.

Target 11: By 2020, at least 17 per cent of terrestrial and inland water areas

and 10 per cent of coastal and marine areas, especially areas of particular importance for biodiversity and ecosystem services, are conserved through effectively and equitably managed, ecologically representative and well-connected systems of protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures, and integrated into the wider landscape and seascape.

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Key messages

WCS is a science based organization with a field focus Strong relationships with major donors, US and other

governments We are keen to collaborate with universities and research

institutions (Columbia – Earth Institute, Clark University, NCEAS, University of Queensland, University of Oxford, University of Durham)

We think the CESM can help us achieve long-term conservation

success

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Thanks!!!

jwatson@wcs.org aseimon@wcs.org