Luong Quang HuyClimate Change ProgrammeIUCN Vietnam

Contents

State of science and evolution of understanding Research needs (adaptive capacity, indicators)

Action on adaptation Staged approach Funding

Way forward Principles and operationalization

Emerging themes Adaptation and sustainable development Mainstreaming

Key concepts

AdaptationAdjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Types of adaptation include anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation

Adaptive Capacity The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences

Sensitivity Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli.

Vulnerability The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity

Why is adaptation important?

Regardless of mitigation, the Mekong region is faced with a finite, and significant degree of anthropogenic climate change;

Managing climate risk is likely to be important for sustainable development;

Adaptation should be an important part of policy response to climate change.

Ideas on adaptation

Adaptation viewed purely as a response mechanism;

Adaptation as an element of scenario-impact assessments;

Vulnerability and adaptive capacity as central themes in adaptation;

Adaptation and sustainable development: mainstreaming adaptation.

Initial thinking on adaptation – a function of response

Adaptation viewed as ‘adjustments’ made in ‘practices, processes, or structures of systems to projected or actual changes in climate’

At the end of the sequential process identified for impact assessments

Seven step methodology for impact assessment in the IPCC Second Assessment Report Define the problem Select method of assessment Test methods/ conduct sensitivity analysis Select and apply climate change scenarios Assess biophysical and socio-economic impacts Assess autonomous adjustments Evaluate adaptation strategies

Insights from the IPCC TAR

Vulnerability and adaptation given significant importance in WG II, shift in emphasis from “mechanistic” impact assessment

Importance of extreme events, cross-sectoral analysis and multiple stresses

Regional predictions still highly uncertain, important phenomena not well captured (monsoon)

Focus on adaptation, recognition of the link with development and equity issues, introduce concepts such as adaptive capacity Recognition that those with least resources have

the least ability to adapt

May 2006Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 7

Preliminary ideas from the IPCC FAR Adaptation defined as adjustments made to ‘enhance

resilience’ or ‘reduce vulnerability’

Adaptation practices may be looked at from various perspectives: Spatial scale

Sectors

Climate stress / hazard

Baseline economic development level of the systems they are implemented in

Relating adaptation to adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity represents potential rather than actual

adaptation

Research issues in adaptation

Indicators and measuring adaptation

Adaptive capacity

Structuring and formulating adaptation interventions

Impacts – proximate, non-proximate; marginal, non-marginal, stocks vs. flows

Interactions across scales (spatial, temporal, institutional) – aggregation issues

Extremes and variability

Scenarios

Measuring adaptation

What should be measured? Hazard Risk Exposure Vulnerability Impacts Adaptation intervention Effectiveness of adaptation intervention

Adaptive capacity

Autonomous – what responses are happening (will happen) automatically?

How will impacts be perceived, how will they be evaluated and how will response take place?

Who will respond, in what way? Adaptive capacity is influenced not only by factors that

promote or constrain the adoption of technologies and management practices, but also by the economic, social, political, environmental, institutional, and cultural factors that create both external and internal incentives as well as barriers to adaptation

Action on adaptation

Types of interventions

Financing and supporting adaptation

International actions

Approach for moving forward

Range of adaptation responses

Classifying adaptation measures

Time-scales of response

Anticipatory adaptation to climate change risks may take place at three levels: Adaptation to current variability For observed medium change/variability Long-term changes

Responses across the three levels are closely intertwined, and indeed might form a continuum.

Visible shift of emphasis from first level to the second and third levels

Increasing examples of measures taken to cope with the impacts of observed trends in climate, as well as scenarios of climate change. Tsho Rolpa risk reduction project in Nepal Quinhai-Tibet Railway in China Konkan Railway in Western India Thames Barrier in UK Copenhagen metro in Denmark

Initial thinking on action

Adaptation within the financial mechanism of the Convention Identification of need for programming adaptation

interventions within the climate change response framework Designing a framework for funding adaptation

Initial thoughts on adaptation viewed it as an independent process rather than an action taken in integration with ongoing programmes

Thus, the staged approach to adaptation surfaced in the UNFCCC (decision 11/CP.1) Views adaptation in three stages of interventions Identifies adaptation interventions as sequential, one leading

to another Has been the programming guideline for financing adaptation

in the international arena

Staged approach to adaptation

Stage I: planning through studies to identify vulnerabilities (vulnerable countries and regions), policy options (for adaptation response measures), and appropriate capacity building

Stage II: identifying measures to prepare for adaptation and further capacity building

Stage III: promoting measures to facilitate adaptation, including insurance and other adaptation interventions

Taking the dialogue further

What needs to be funded – guiding principles for funding adaptation

Identification of ‘concrete’ – what will define the concrete adaptation measures

Mainstreaming – what and how

Exploring new mechanisms and tools

What should be measured and how – identifying indicators

What should be funded?

What kinds of projects? Pilot vs. full Climate variability vs. anthropogenic climate change Climate and non-climate benefits

Are there a set of projects that have unambiguous climate change linkages

Principles for funding adaptation

Automaticity in contributions Adequacy and predictability of resources Move from enabling activities to real projects Guiding the institutional process

Ensuring flexibility Expediting the process Enabling wider access Re-programming the approach to funding adaptation

Identifying ‘concrete’ interventions Moving away from the ‘staged approach’ New knowledge acquired on the theme of adaptation

suggests that adaptation interventions are NOT sequential

Adaptation interventions are now viewed in integration with each other and the development programmes

Need for identifying a new approach that identifies major types of interventions that can be taken up across sectors relevant in sustainable development

May 2006Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 21

Towards a portfolio approach

A portfolio of broad interventions for adaptation

Interventions may be identified through the views and priorities expressed in the Convention and the various decisions Mainstreaming activities Technology development and transfer Insurance

May 2006Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 22

Technology development and transfer as a tool for adaptation Technology transfer is very relevant

Role of traditional knowledge and capturing the value

The dialogue needs to be extended to include Technology development Adoption of technology Barrier removal Favorable market mechanisms Creating enabling environment

Insurance

Insurance as an instrument for providing ‘risk-cover’ against the impacts of climate change and variability, specifically for extreme weather events.

Exploring the tool Creation of viable insurance markets requires risk

pooling and reinsurance mechanisms The former might require pooling across sectors and

even countries The latter might require access to a source of funds

that is generated through automatic contributions Possibilities

Public-private partnerships Disaster risk insurance

Linking adaptation and sustainable development

Emerging realization of the links between climate change and sustainable development

IPCC (2001) identified that ‘activities required for enhancement of adaptive capacity are essentially equivalent to those promoting sustainable development’.

It has further been understood that climate change adaptation and equity goals can be achieved through the route taken for achieving development goals such as improving food security, provision of safe drinking water, shelter and health care and access to other resources.

Mainstreaming adaptation Mainstreaming adaptation into development activities – leverage

concessional developmental funds?

Increasingly, many developmental activities (for example in infrastructure) are being implemented by the private sector

How can we evaluate the portfolio of development projects to: Assess implications of climate change for project benefits? Assess implications of project for reducing vulnerability to

climate change?

Related question: How can we incrementally adjust project design or

implementation to enhance climate change related benefits?

Mainstreaming in practice Building ownership among stakeholders Engaging private sector as active partners in sustainable

development programmes

Barriers to adaptation

Financial Increased realisation that available funding may not

always be sufficient to cover the financial requirements of rehabilitation, mitigation and adaptation, specifically in case of extreme events

Therefore, insurance may be an instrument worth exploring

Institutional Social and Cultural Technological Informational

Future directions

Research issues in adaptation science

Focused research on methodologies for mainstreaming adaptation

Development and diffusion of technologies for adaptation in developing countries

Fostering public-private partnerships for mainstreaming as well as technology development and transfer

Exploring innovative funding mechanisms that provide automaticity for resource generation Exploring insurance as the tool for providing risk cover against

climate change and variability