water scarcity in the arab world: how to get from ‘crisis’ to ‘sustainable’? rania el masri,...
TRANSCRIPT
Water scarcity in the Arab world:
how to get from ‘crisis’ to ‘sustainable’?
Rania el Masri, Ph.D.Environment and Energy Policy Specialist
Cairo, May 8, 2012
2
State of our water commons
3
1958
-196
2
1963
-196
7
1968
-197
2
1973
-197
7
1978
-198
2
1983
-198
7
1988
-199
2
1993
-199
7
1998
-200
2
2003
-200
7
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Algeria Bahrain Djibouti Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Mauritania
Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia UAE Yemen
Total renewable water resources per capita, 1958-2007 (m3/capita/yr)
4
Total renewable water resources per capita (2008) (m3/capita/yr)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Water Crisis level (< 500)
Absolute water scarcity level (< 165)
Water scarcity level (< 1000)
5
Kuwai
tUAE
Qatar
Yem
en
Saud
i Ara
bia
Libya
Bahra
in
Jord
an
Alger
ia
Djibou
ti
Tuni
sia
Oman
Egyp
t
Syria
Moroc
co
Leba
non
Suda
nIra
q
Maurit
ania
-
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
3,500.00
4,000.00
Total renewable water resources per capita (2008 and 2016) (m3/capita/yr)
Absolute water scarcity level (< 165)
Water Crisis level (< 500)
Water scarcity level (< 1000)
6
Bahra
in
Jord
an
Yem
en
Tuni
sia
Saud
i Ara
bia
Qatar
Alger
ia
Egyp
t
Moroc
co
Leba
non
Libya
Oman UAE
Syria Ira
q0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1955 1990 2000 2025
Freshwater availability: 1955-2025(m3/capita/yr)
7
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1960 1999 2025
Annual per capita water supply; 1960-1999; projections for 2025
8
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
annual per capita water supply (m3/capita/yr)
Available Renewable Water Resources per capita, 1950 -
9
Qatar
Kuwai
t
Saud
i Ara
bia
Oman Ira
q
Jord
an
Leba
non
Syria
Moroc
co
Alger
ia
Tuni
siaLib
ya
Egyp
t
Maurit
ania
Suda
n
Yem
en
Wor
ld0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Population Percent change, 1961-2007
10
Total fertility in the Arab world: 1970 - 2010
Although fertility rates in the Arab world are declining…
11
Population growth (millions): 1970 - 2025
Bahra
in
Oman
Qatar
Saud
i Ara
bia
UAE
Kuwai
tIra
q
Leba
non
Syria
Jord
an
Egyp
t
Alger
ia
Moroc
co
Tuni
siaLib
ya
Yem
en0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 2001 2025
12
population growth: 1950-2050
Arab region: among the fastest population growth rates (> 2%/year)
GCC population: to double by 2040
Maghreb population: to double by 2060
13
State of our water commons Decreasing supply
Aquifers and groundwater already heavily mined Examples: Yemen, Saudi Arabia; lesser extent: Egypt,
Algeria, Jordan, Lebanon Increasing demand (decreasing supply per capita)
Population growth Increasing urbanization, Increasing economic and social
demands
PlusProjected impacts of climate change
decreasing supply and increasing demand
14
Impact of climate change on water availability in Middle East and North Africa in 2050Source: Milly et al., published in Nature.
15
State of our water commons: leakage
16
Water supply and uses
For the Near East as a region, it is estimated that only 30% of the flood water used in irrigation ever reaches the crop. (UNDP, HDR2006)
17
Algeria
Bahrai
nEg
ypt
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait*
Leban
onLib
ya
Morocco
Oman** OPT
Saudi A
rabia
Syria
Tunisia UAE
Yemen
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Unaccounted-for Water (%) (2010) [water lost via poor infrastructure]
Source: World Water Intelligence, 2011
18
Impacts of our water crisis
19
Som
alia
Maurit
aniaLib
ya
Yem
en
Suda
nIra
q
Alger
ia
Moroc
co OPT
Djibou
ti
Oman
Syria
Tuni
sia
Comor
os
Jord
an
Egyp
t
Kuwai
t
Leba
non
Qatar
UAE0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Djibouti Iraq Morocco Oman Somalia Sudan Yemen0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Rural Urban
Population without access to improved water sources (2010)
Internal differences in access to improved water sources (2010)
Impact of water crisis: who gets water?
20
Som
alia
Mau
ritan
ia
Suda
n
Com
oros
Djib
outi
Yem
en
Mor
occo
Iraq
Tuni
sia OPT
Alge
ria
Egyp
t
Syria
Libya
Jord
an
UAE
Om
an
Kuw
ait
Leba
non
Qat
ar
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Som
alia
Maurit
ania
Djibou
ti
Comor
os
Yem
en
Moroc
co
Tuni
sia Iraq
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Rural Urban
Population without access to improved sanitation facilities (2010)
Internal differences in access to improved sanitation facilities (2010)
Impact of water crisis: whose water is clean?
21
(Potential) impacts of decreased supply and Increased demand
Direct impacts … increased cost … decreased quality (eg: increased
salinization) Indirect impacts
… increased poverty … increased health risks …risk to livelihoods in agricultural sector
Decreased ecosystem health
22
Responses to our water crisis: getting to sustainable
23
HUMAN SOCIETY
ENVIRONMENT
State: water security crisis
IMPACTS
Human well-being:
Economic, social goods & services
RESPONSES
Mitigation and adaptation
PRESSURES
DRIVERS
Ecosystem services
Farmer liveilhoods
Population growth
Increased consumption
Increased resource exploitation
Climate change
Agricultural mismanagement
Decreasing supply
Decreasing quality
24
Current Responses Desalination
GCC: more than 50% of domestic water use consumption comes from desalination
Energy usage: drinking oil? Some reports indicate by 2050, GCC would spend 50% of their fuel on desalination
Negative Impact on marine life
Privatization UAE, Algeria, Jordan, and Morocco: Public-Private Partnership
Needs strong regulatory government to ensure that public will not suffer from increased cost and decreased quality
Bottled water consumption (UAE and Lebanon: highest growth in bottled water consumption in the world) Bottled water: polluting industry Removes pressure on government to provide clean water to population
Reuse of drainage water Practiced on a large scale in Egypt
Up to 10% of total water resources are from reused from agricultural drainage water
More limited scale in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria
25Additional necessary responses
Reduce consumption (from repairing infrastructure to family planning) Develop a water commons
Participatory stewardship Develop fair pricing – not ‘full cost recovery’ as was in Rio
Reduce vulnerabilities of poor Charge higher volume users more per unit
Plan for all water resources in a comprehensive package Why do we assign water quality to a Health Ministry, drinking water to an urban
utility, and irrigation to an Agricultural Ministry, and no one responsible for watershed health?
Develop sequential water use Implement wise agricultural management (from halting the export of virtual
water to comprehensive support for small-holder farmers) Stop export of water-intensive crops such as sugarcane and rice Support farmers to have the financial means to implement water efficient irrigation
Ensure water as a human right and not a human need
And of course: work seriously to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions locally and internationally: make mitigating climate change a priority
26
HUMAN SOCIETY
ENVIRONMENT
State: water security crisis
IMPACTS
Human well-being:
Economic, social goods & services
RESPONSES • Reduce consumption• Develop a water
commons• Water as a human
right
PRESSURES
DRIVERS
Ecosystem services
Farmer liveilhoods
Population growth
Increased consumption
Increased resource exploitation
Climate change
Agricultural mismanagement
Decreasing supply
Decreasing quality
27
Water under occupation and apartheid: Palestine
28
Theft of Palestinian Water
